Cash is king

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Snakekiller
2021-02-24

Cash is king

How did gurus such as Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?

巴菲特表示当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现，要保持冷静，长期持有。格雷厄姆：第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不

How did gurus such as Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Keep calm and operate in the opposite direction.Peter Lynch said that the plunge is the best opportunity to make big money: huge wealth is often earned in such stock market crashes.Soros: To get wealth, the way is to recognize its illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.Jim Rogers: Buy what it's worth, sell what it's madness.What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?1. How do the masters deal with the sharp drop?Buffett: Keep Calm and Hold Long-TermIn the view of Warren Buffett, the best way for investors to remain calm and stick to the long-term investment principle when facing violent fluctuations in the stock market.As a stock god with more than 50 years of investment career, Buffett warned investors in an interview in 2016: Don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market when the stock market goes down. If an investor is worried when the stock market goes down, and then thinks of throwing away the stock when the stock market goes back up, then such investor will not ultimately get the rewards of a Li Auto.Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving ideal returns. He believes that the income from investing in the stock market comes from holding shares of high-quality companies for a long time. If investors buy stocks in high-quality companies and hold these stocks for 10, 20, 30 years, then they will ultimately make good returns.Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that the market is always fluctuating, so for every investor, regardless of the depth of investment experience, the best choice is to remain calm.He wrote: Although the market is usually rational, the market occasionally goes crazy. For investors, it doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics to seize opportunities.What investors need is the ability to ignore market panic or fanaticism and focus on fundamentals. In addition, it is also very important to be able to maintain the willingness to be boring or even stupid for a long time.GrahamFirst, never lose money; Second, never forget number one.Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow Jones index rose to a maximum of 381 points, and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12%. This day was described as the worst day in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange. This is the most famous Black Tuesday in history.In November 1929, the Dow Jones index fell as low as 198 points, and then stabilized and rebounded. By March 1930, it once rose to 286 points, a rebound of 43%. So many investors think that the worst is over and the stock market is about to reverse. Graham thought so too, so he began to enter the market to buy bottoms.He copied all good stocks that were very cheap in terms of value evaluation. In order to obtain greater yields, he also used margin for leverage operations. But the stock market rally lasted until April and then began to plummet. The Dow Jones index fell 33% in 1930, while the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 50.5%.By July 1932, the Dow Jones index reached a lowest point of 41 points, and the biggest drop was as high as 89% from the highest point of 381 points. During the same period, the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 78%. This super bear market almost made him bankrupt.Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles \"Securities Analysis\" and \"The Smart Investor\", summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.Safety first, profit second.Dario: Stay calm and operate in reverseLike Buffett, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, also believes that investors need not panic in the face of a stock market decline and should remain calm.Dalio said that investors are always easy to make the decision to sell when the market falls, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy, because doing so will not succeed.On the contrary, when the market goes down, investors need to do the opposite operation, that is, when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy.At present, Bridgewater has become the largest hedge fund company in the world, with assets under management of up to 150 billion US dollars.In the book Principles, Dalio shares three things he learned during the market crash: First, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never be confident in making absolute assertions.Second, I once again realized the value of studying history; Third, timing the market is quite difficult. One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to only make risky bets on investment objects you have a high degree of confidence in, and to fully diversify these objects.Wise people always focus on solid fundamentals when going through all kinds of ups and downs; And frivolous people follow their feelings, make emotional reactions, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.The safest way to have a lot of advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.Peter LynchThe historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all big drops will pass and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment. You can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting is not that simple. Instead of constantly buying the bottom and constantly being trapped, it is not too late to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to abject poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, a superstar in the American securities industry, managed more than $10 billion Magellan Fund. In one day, the net asset value of the fund lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, has only one option: dump the stock. In order to cope with the unusually huge redemptions, Lynch had to sell all his stocks.More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels scared when he recalls it. At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to fall into a serious Great Depression, or whether things hadn't gotten that bad, just that Wall Street was about to die.After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market crashes, but still achieved very successful performance.First, don't sell all stocks at low prices because of panic. If you sell stocks in desperation during a stock market crash, your selling price will often be very low. The market in October 1987 was frightening, but there was no need to sell the stock one day or the next.In November of that year, the stock market began to rise steadily. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means an increase of more than 23%.Second, you must have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy stocks of good companies at low prices. A plunge is the best opportunity to make a lot of money: huge wealth is often made in such a stock market crash.SorosThe economic history of the world is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize its illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market had a huge bubble and shorted Japanese stocks. The result was a fiasco, and the Japanese stock market was bullish in 1989. In his Wall Street commentary, Soros preached that the US stock market would be strong and the Japanese stock market would collapse, but the result was just the opposite: the US stock market crashed, but the Japanese stock market was strong.In September 1987, Soros transferred billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not the Japanese stock market that first collapsed, but Wall Street in the United States.On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in new york, USA, plummeted 508 points, setting a historical record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market fell all the way. However, the Japanese stock market is relatively strong. Soros decided to sell several large long-term stock holdings.After other traders caught the relevant information, they took the opportunity to smash the sold stocks violently, reducing the cash discount of futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in this Wall Street meltdown.This collapse caused the net assets of Quantum Fund to drop by 26.2%, far greater than the 17% decline of the U.S. stock market. Soros became the biggest loser of this disaster.In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went his own way to a huge loss.There is no shame in mistakes. What is shameful is that mistakes are obvious and not corrected. Take risks and be beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember not to put all your eggs in one basket. It doesn't matter whether it is right or wrong, the key is how much you lose when you make a mistake and how much you earn when you make a correct judgment.Jim Rogers: Buy It's Worth, Sell It's MadnessWall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should wait patiently for a good opportunity, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. Only in this way can we defeat others.Market trends often show long-term downturns. In order to avoid plunging funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for catalytic factors that can change market trends to appear. Buy what it's worth, sell what it's madness.Philip FisherPhilip Fisher is one of the pioneers of modern investment theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investors on Wall Street.Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not in a hurry to buy. In a continuous declining market environment, don't buy those unfamiliar stocks too quickly.In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in a crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that the prospects of many industries in the United States were unstable and the stock market had a serious bubble.In August, 1929, he submitted a report to senior bank executives that the worst big short market in 25 years would unfold. This can be said to be the most amazing stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is bearish and long.He said: \"I couldn't help but be confused by the power of the stock market. So I looked around for some cheap stocks because they hadn't gone up enough yet. Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the US stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.\"Fisher began to understand that the main factor that determines the stock price is not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E in the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your own ability and determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within reasonable upper and lower limits, you can find a key, which will not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.Bill MillerI often remind my analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, and the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.The Legg Mason Value Trust Fund managed by Miller defeated the S&P 500 index in a row during the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is known as the most successful fund manager in this era. However, in just one year, this honor was ruined by his own hands.During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many excellent companies fell sharply continuously. Miller believed that investors overreacted, so he bought against the market trend. He thought that crisis was a great opportunity to make money, but it turned out to be the worst bear market since the Great Depression.Although his reverse investment decisions in the past 15 years have proved to be correct afterwards, this time it has been miserable. Miller's stock list is like a list of martyrs in this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, etc.In 2008, Miller, 58, said in an interview: From the beginning, I failed to properly estimate the seriousness of this liquidity crisis.Although Miller used to make money from market panics, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems to be so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that were once market leaders fell.I'm still inexperienced, Miller said. It's terrible that every decision to buy stocks is wrong.Lessons learned Any extraordinary portfolio can succeed for a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market's estimate of this future number is wrong. We use a combination of factors to find out the price misalignment by comparing the market, the valuation of this company and our own valuation of the company.Second, the stock market plummeted, what should ordinary investors do?Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen into the cost zoneSuggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and those who are more aggressive should also set a stop loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't blindly sell down, and don't be emotional about the stocks you buy. At this moment, you must be clear-headed.Situation 2: The stock in hand has suffered lossesSuggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated in categories. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy holdings, then don't blindly liquidate the positions. Even when the market plummets rapidly, you can cover the positions in batches and spread low costs., and fight to the end with the fund. (In case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash, this suggestion is not suitable)However, if it is found by looking at the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, when the market for such stocks continues to be poor, investors should resolutely go out and keep cash for greater initiative. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally does not protect the market when the market really plummets.In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there is no obvious sign of the main force's intervention, so a stop loss price must be set. The nature of this kind of stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, it must resolutely leave the market.Situation 3: Half the hand is money and half is stocksSuggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of the stock and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell the stock and keep the cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by retaining cash can you have a greater say in the market.If this part of the stock in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market has fallen sharply and shows a stabilizing trend. However, if the stock has a large increase that day after covering the position, you can do a disguised T+0 that day to lock in part of the profit.Situation 4: I have money in my hands and want to enter the marketSuggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to watch the market, you can grab a rebound according to market conditions, but you should focus on short-term thinking.","source":"lsy1571985465872","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How did gurus such as Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow did gurus such as Buffett, Dalio, and Soros cope with the stock market decline?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n腾讯网2021-02-23 21:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBuffett said that when the stock market falls, don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market, but keep calm and hold it for a long time.Graham: First, never lose money; Second, never forget number one.Dalio said that investors are always easy to make the decision to sell when the market falls, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy, because it will not be successful. Keep calm and operate in the opposite direction.Peter Lynch said that the plunge is the best opportunity to make big money: huge wealth is often earned in such stock market crashes.Soros: To get wealth, the way is to recognize its illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.Jim Rogers: Buy what it's worth, sell what it's madness.What should the average investor do if the stock market plummets?1. How do the masters deal with the sharp drop?Buffett: Keep Calm and Hold Long-TermIn the view of Warren Buffett, the best way for investors to remain calm and stick to the long-term investment principle when facing violent fluctuations in the stock market.As a stock god with more than 50 years of investment career, Buffett warned investors in an interview in 2016: Don't pay close attention to the performance of the stock market when the stock market goes down. If an investor is worried when the stock market goes down, and then thinks of throwing away the stock when the stock market goes back up, then such investor will not ultimately get the rewards of a Li Auto.Buffett has always emphasized that long-term investment is an important factor in achieving ideal returns. He believes that the income from investing in the stock market comes from holding shares of high-quality companies for a long time. If investors buy stocks in high-quality companies and hold these stocks for 10, 20, 30 years, then they will ultimately make good returns.Buffett once explained in his annual letter to shareholders that the market is always fluctuating, so for every investor, regardless of the depth of investment experience, the best choice is to remain calm.He wrote: Although the market is usually rational, the market occasionally goes crazy. For investors, it doesn't take much wisdom or a degree in economics to seize opportunities.What investors need is the ability to ignore market panic or fanaticism and focus on fundamentals. In addition, it is also very important to be able to maintain the willingness to be boring or even stupid for a long time.GrahamFirst, never lose money; Second, never forget number one.Graham is Buffett's mentor, the father of securities analysis, and the originator of value investing. In September 1929, the Dow Jones index rose to a maximum of 381 points, and then began to fall. On October 29, the Dow Jones index plunged 12%. This day was described as the worst day in the 112-year history of the New York Stock Exchange. This is the most famous Black Tuesday in history.In November 1929, the Dow Jones index fell as low as 198 points, and then stabilized and rebounded. By March 1930, it once rose to 286 points, a rebound of 43%. So many investors think that the worst is over and the stock market is about to reverse. Graham thought so too, so he began to enter the market to buy bottoms.He copied all good stocks that were very cheap in terms of value evaluation. In order to obtain greater yields, he also used margin for leverage operations. But the stock market rally lasted until April and then began to plummet. The Dow Jones index fell 33% in 1930, while the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 50.5%.By July 1932, the Dow Jones index reached a lowest point of 41 points, and the biggest drop was as high as 89% from the highest point of 381 points. During the same period, the fund managed by Graham lost as much as 78%. This super bear market almost made him bankrupt.Graham later made a comeback and wrote the investment bibles \"Securities Analysis\" and \"The Smart Investor\", summarizing an eternal basic principle of value investing: the margin of safety.Safety first, profit second.Dario: Stay calm and operate in reverseLike Buffett, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, the world's largest hedge fund, also believes that investors need not panic in the face of a stock market decline and should remain calm.Dalio said that investors are always easy to make the decision to sell when the market falls, but succumbing to fear is not a wise strategy, because doing so will not succeed.On the contrary, when the market goes down, investors need to do the opposite operation, that is, when you no longer feel fear, you may need to sell; When you feel fear, you may need to buy.At present, Bridgewater has become the largest hedge fund company in the world, with assets under management of up to 150 billion US dollars.In the book Principles, Dalio shares three things he learned during the market crash: First, you shouldn't be outrageously overconfident and indulge yourself in being swayed by your emotions. No matter how much I know, no matter how diligent I am, I should never be confident in making absolute assertions.Second, I once again realized the value of studying history; Third, timing the market is quite difficult. One of the keys to becoming a successful investor is to only make risky bets on investment objects you have a high degree of confidence in, and to fully diversify these objects.Wise people always focus on solid fundamentals when going through all kinds of ups and downs; And frivolous people follow their feelings, make emotional reactions, rush to hot things, and give up immediately when they are not hot.The safest way to have a lot of advantages without being exposed to unacceptable disadvantages is to make a series of good, unrelated bets that balance and complement each other.Peter LynchThe historical law of stock market volatility tells us that all big drops will pass and the stock market will always rise higher. Historical experience also shows that the stock market crash is actually a good opportunity to release risks and create investment. You can buy those excellent company stocks at very low prices. But bargain hunting is not that simple. Instead of constantly buying the bottom and constantly being trapped, it is not too late to wait for the bottom to appear before intervening.When the U.S. stock market crashed in 1987, many people went from millionaires to abject poverty, suffered mental breakdowns and even committed suicide. At that time, Peter Lynch, a superstar in the American securities industry, managed more than $10 billion Magellan Fund. In one day, the net asset value of the fund lost 18%, and the loss was as high as $2 billion.Lynch, like all open-end fund managers, has only one option: dump the stock. In order to cope with the unusually huge redemptions, Lynch had to sell all his stocks.More than a year later, Peter Lynch still feels scared when he recalls it. At that moment, I really wasn't sure whether it was the end of the world, or whether we were about to fall into a serious Great Depression, or whether things hadn't gotten that bad, just that Wall Street was about to die.After that, Peter Lynch continued to experience many stock market crashes, but still achieved very successful performance.First, don't sell all stocks at low prices because of panic. If you sell stocks in desperation during a stock market crash, your selling price will often be very low. The market in October 1987 was frightening, but there was no need to sell the stock one day or the next.In November of that year, the stock market began to rise steadily. By June 1988, the market had rebounded by more than 400 points, which means an increase of more than 23%.Second, you must have firm courage to hold good company stocks. Third, dare to buy stocks of good companies at low prices. A plunge is the best opportunity to make a lot of money: huge wealth is often made in such a stock market crash.SorosThe economic history of the world is a series based on illusions and lies. The way to gain wealth is to recognize its illusion, invest in it, and then quit the game before the illusion is recognized by the public.Before 1987, Soros thought that the Japanese stock market had a huge bubble and shorted Japanese stocks. The result was a fiasco, and the Japanese stock market was bullish in 1989. In his Wall Street commentary, Soros preached that the US stock market would be strong and the Japanese stock market would collapse, but the result was just the opposite: the US stock market crashed, but the Japanese stock market was strong.In September 1987, Soros transferred billions of dollars of investment from Tokyo to Wall Street. However, it was not the Japanese stock market that first collapsed, but Wall Street in the United States.On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Average in new york, USA, plummeted 508 points, setting a historical record at that time. Over the next week, the New York stock market fell all the way. However, the Japanese stock market is relatively strong. Soros decided to sell several large long-term stock holdings.After other traders caught the relevant information, they took the opportunity to smash the sold stocks violently, reducing the cash discount of futures by 20%. Soros lost about $650 million to $800 million in this Wall Street meltdown.This collapse caused the net assets of Quantum Fund to drop by 26.2%, far greater than the 17% decline of the U.S. stock market. Soros became the biggest loser of this disaster.In the final analysis, the reason for Soros's fiasco was speculative psychology, and he tried to figure out the market opportunity and went his own way to a huge loss.There is no shame in mistakes. What is shameful is that mistakes are obvious and not corrected. Take risks and be beyond reproach. But at the same time, remember not to put all your eggs in one basket. It doesn't matter whether it is right or wrong, the key is how much you lose when you make a mistake and how much you earn when you make a correct judgment.Jim Rogers: Buy It's Worth, Sell It's MadnessWall Street investment guru Jim Rogers once pointed out that you should wait patiently for a good opportunity, make money and take profits, and then wait for the next opportunity. Only in this way can we defeat others.Market trends often show long-term downturns. In order to avoid plunging funds into a stagnant market, investors should wait for catalytic factors that can change market trends to appear. Buy what it's worth, sell what it's madness.Philip FisherPhilip Fisher is one of the pioneers of modern investment theory, the father of growth stock investment strategy, the godfather investment guru, and one of the most respected and respected investors on Wall Street.Learn to spend a lot of time researching and not in a hurry to buy. In a continuous declining market environment, don't buy those unfamiliar stocks too quickly.In 1929, the U.S. stock market was in a crazy bull market before the collapse, but Fisher found that the prospects of many industries in the United States were unstable and the stock market had a serious bubble.In August, 1929, he submitted a report to senior bank executives that the worst big short market in 25 years would unfold. This can be said to be the most amazing stock market forecast in Fisher's life. Unfortunately, Fisher is bearish and long.He said: \"I couldn't help but be confused by the power of the stock market. So I looked around for some cheap stocks because they hadn't gone up enough yet. Fisher didn't survive the sudden collapse of the US stock market in October 1929. He suffered heavy losses in the stock market crash, and Fisher lost all his money.\"Fisher began to understand that the main factor that determines the stock price is not the P/E of the current year, but the expected P/E in the next few years. He said that if you can cultivate your own ability and determine the possible performance of a certain stock in the next few years within reasonable upper and lower limits, you can find a key, which will not only avoid losses, but also make huge profits.Bill MillerI often remind my analysts that your information about the company is 100% representative of the company's past, and the valuation of the stock is 100% dependent on the future.The Legg Mason Value Trust Fund managed by Miller defeated the S&P 500 index in a row during the 15 years from 1991 to 2005, creating the most brilliant fund manager performance record in history, and is known as the most successful fund manager in this era. However, in just one year, this honor was ruined by his own hands.During the subprime mortgage crisis, the stocks of many excellent companies fell sharply continuously. Miller believed that investors overreacted, so he bought against the market trend. He thought that crisis was a great opportunity to make money, but it turned out to be the worst bear market since the Great Depression.Although his reverse investment decisions in the past 15 years have proved to be correct afterwards, this time it has been miserable. Miller's stock list is like a list of martyrs in this crisis: AIG, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, etc.In 2008, Miller, 58, said in an interview: From the beginning, I failed to properly estimate the seriousness of this liquidity crisis.Although Miller used to make money from market panics, he said that this time he didn't expect the crisis to be so serious and the fundamental problems to be so deep that all the high-quality listed companies that were once market leaders fell.I'm still inexperienced, Miller said. It's terrible that every decision to buy stocks is wrong.Lessons learned Any extraordinary portfolio can succeed for a certain period of time because it has the insurance of price misalignment. The market's estimate of this future number is wrong. We use a combination of factors to find out the price misalignment by comparing the market, the valuation of this company and our own valuation of the company.Second, the stock market plummeted, what should ordinary investors do?Situation 1: The stock in hand has fallen into the cost zoneSuggestion: In this situation, cautious investors should choose to leave the market, and those who are more aggressive should also set a stop loss price, and then observe for a day or two before making a decision. Don't blindly sell down, and don't be emotional about the stocks you buy. At this moment, you must be clear-headed.Situation 2: The stock in hand has suffered lossesSuggestion: This kind of loss also needs to be treated in categories. Investors can check the relevant information. If the stocks in their hands belong to the fund's heavy holdings, then don't blindly liquidate the positions. Even when the market plummets rapidly, you can cover the positions in batches and spread low costs., and fight to the end with the fund. (In case of a bear market decline or a stock market crash, this suggestion is not suitable)However, if it is found by looking at the data that the main force of the stock is mainly manipulated by individual large investors, when the market for such stocks continues to be poor, investors should resolutely go out and keep cash for greater initiative. Because the main force of this kind of stock generally does not protect the market when the market really plummets.In addition, there are some stocks with relatively light transactions, and there is no obvious sign of the main force's intervention, so a stop loss price must be set. The nature of this kind of stock is mainly to follow the trend. Once it falls below the long-term platform, it must resolutely leave the market.Situation 3: Half the hand is money and half is stocksSuggestion: If investors are profitable in this part of the stock and the market trend is always unclear, they should sell the stock and keep the cash. After all, there are many opportunities in the market, and only by retaining cash can you have a greater say in the market.If this part of the stock in their hands has lost money, then investors should choose to quickly replenish the stocks in their hands after the market has fallen sharply and shows a stabilizing trend. However, if the stock has a large increase that day after covering the position, you can do a disguised T+0 that day to lock in part of the profit.Situation 4: I have money in my hands and want to enter the marketSuggestion: If you are an aggressive investor and have a certain ability to watch the market, you can grab a rebound according to market conditions, but you should focus on short-term thinking.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210223A0ADX600\">腾讯网</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210223A0ADX600","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114793986","content_text":"巴菲特表示当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现，要保持冷静，长期持有。\n格雷厄姆：第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。\n达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功，要保持镇定，反向操作。\n彼得林奇称暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。\n索罗斯：要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。\n吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂。\n如果股市暴跌，普通投资者应该怎么办？\n一、大师们如何应对大跌？\n巴菲特：保持冷静，长期持有\n在股神巴菲特看来，投资者在面对股市剧烈波动时，最好的方法应该是保持冷静，并坚守长期持有的投资原则。\n作为拥有长达五十多年投资生涯的股神，巴菲特曾在2016年的一次采访中告诫投资者：「当股市走跌时，不要密切关注股市表现。如果一个投资者遇到股市下跌就忧心忡忡，然后想着等股市回升时就抛掉手中的股票，那么这种投资者最终不会获得理想汽车的回报。」\n一直以来，巴菲特都在强调长期投资是取得理想收益的重要因素。他认为，投资股市所获得的收益来自于长期持有优质公司的股票。如果投资者购买优质公司的股票，且持有这些股票10年、20年、30年之久，那么他们最终将会取得不错的回报。\n巴菲特曾在致股东的年度信中解释说，市场总是处于波动之中，因此对于每个投资者来说，无论投资经验深浅，最好的选择就是保持镇定。\n他写道：虽然通常情况下市场是理性的，但市场偶尔也会有疯狂之举。对于投资者而言，抓住机遇并不需要太多的智慧或经济学位。\n投资者需要的，仅仅是无视市场恐慌或狂热的能力，并将注意力集中在基本面上即可。另外，能在相当长的时期内保持无趣、甚至是愚蠢的意愿也十分重要。\n格雷厄姆\n第一，永远不要亏损；第二，永远不要忘记第一条。\n格雷厄姆是巴菲特的导师，证券分析之父，价值投资的鼻祖。1929年9月，道琼斯指数最高涨到381点，随后开始下跌。10月29日，道琼斯指数暴跌12%，这一天被形容为纽约交易所112年历史上「最糟糕的一天」，这就是历史上最著名的「黑色星期二」。\n1929年11月，道琼斯指数最低跌到198点，然后企稳反弹。到1930年3月，一度涨到286点，反弹幅度高达43%。于是许多投资者认为最坏的时期已经过去了，股市将要大反转。格雷厄姆也这样认为，于是他开始进场抄底。\n他抄的都是从价值评估上看非常便宜的好股票，为了取得更大的收益率，他还利用保证金进行杠杆操作。但股市反弹持续到4月份后又开始暴跌，道琼斯指数在1930年下跌33%，而格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达50.5%。\n至1932年7月，道琼斯指数达到最低点41点，从最高点381点算起，最大跌幅高达89%，而同期格雷厄姆管理的基金亏损高达78%，这场超级大熊市几乎让他倾家荡产。\n格雷厄姆后来重新东山再起，写出投资圣经《证券分析》和《聪明的投资者》，总结出一个永恒的价值投资基本原则：安全边际。\n安全第一，赢利第二。\n达里奥：保持镇定，反向操作\n和巴菲特一样，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人达里奥也认为，投资者在面对股市下跌时不必惊慌，应该保持冷静。\n达里奥表示，投资者在市场出现下跌时总是容易做出抛售的决定，但屈从恐惧并不是个明智的策略，因为这样做并不会取得成功。\n相反，在市场走跌时，投资者需要进行反向操作，即当你不再感到恐惧时，你可能需要卖出；当你感到恐惧时，你也许需要买进。\n目前，桥水基金已成为全球最大对冲基金公司，管理的资产规模高达1500亿美元。\n在《原则》一书中，达里奥分享了他在市场崩盘中学到的三件事情：第一，不应该离谱地过度自信，并放纵自己被情绪左右。无论我知道多少东西，无论我多么勤奋，我都不应该自信地做出绝对的断言。\n第二，我再次领会到研究历史的价值；第三，把握市场的时机相当困难。成为一个成功投资者的要决之一，是只对你有高度信心的投资对象进行冒险押注，并对这些对象进行充分的分散投资。\n明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯稳健的基本面；而轻浮的人跟着感觉走，做出情绪化的反应，对于热门的东西一拥而上，不热的时候又马上放弃。\n想要拥有很多优势，而又不暴露于不可接受的劣势之下，最稳妥的方式是做出一系列良好的、互不相关的押注，彼此平衡，相互补充。\n彼得·林奇\n股市波动的历史规律告诉我们，所有的大跌都会过去，股市永远会涨得更高。历史经验还表明，股市大跌其实是释放风险，创造投资的一次好机会，能以很低的价格买入那些很优秀的公司股票。但抄底并没有那么简单。与其去不断抄「底」，不断被套，不如等底部出现后再介入不迟。\n1987年美国股市大崩盘时，很多人由百万富翁沦为赤贫，精神崩溃甚至自杀。当时美国证券界超级巨星彼得·林奇管理着100多亿美元的麦哲伦基金，一天之内基金资产净值损失了18%，损失高达20亿美元。\n林奇和所有开放式基金经理一样，只有一个选择：抛售股票。为了应付非比寻常的巨额赎回，林奇不得不把股票都卖了。\n过了一年多，彼得·林奇回忆起来仍然感到害怕，「在那一时刻，我真的不能确定，到底是到了世界末日，还是我们即将陷入一场严重的经济大萧条，又或者是事情还没变得那么糟糕，仅仅只是华尔街即将完蛋？」\n之后彼得林奇继续经历过很多次股市大跌，但仍然取得了非常成功的绩效。\n第一，不要因恐慌而全部贱价抛出股票。如果你在股市暴跌中绝望地卖出股票，那么你的卖出价格往往会非常之低。1987年10月的行情让人感到惊恐不安，但没必要在这一天或第二天把股票抛出。\n当年11月份股市开始稳步上扬。到1988年6月，市场已经反弹了400多点，也就是说涨幅超过了23%。\n第二，对持有的好公司股票要有坚定的勇气。第三，要敢于低价买入好公司股票。暴跌是赚大钱的最好机会：巨大的财富往往就是在这种股市大跌中才有机会赚到。\n索罗斯\n世界经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧。要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。\n索罗斯1987年前认为日本股市泡沫巨大，放空日本股票，结果惨败，日本股市牛到了1989年。索罗斯在华尔街评论上鼓吹美国股市会坚挺，日本股市将会崩盘，而结果正好相反：美国股市崩盘了，日本股市却坚挺。\n1987年9月，索罗斯把几十亿美元的投资从东京转移到了华尔街。然而，首先出现大崩溃的不是日本证券市场，而恰恰是美国的华尔街。\n1987年10月19日，美国纽约道琼斯平均指数狂跌508点，创当时历史记录。在接下来的一个星期里，纽约股市一路下滑。而日本股市却相对坚挺。索罗斯决定抛售手中所持有的几个大的长期股票份额。\n其他的交易商捕捉到有关信息后，借机猛烈向下砸被抛售的股票，使期货的现金折扣降了20%。索罗斯在这场华尔街大崩溃中，损失了大约6.5亿到8亿美元。\n这场大崩溃使量子基金净资产跌落26.2%，远大于17%的美国股市的跌幅，索罗斯成了这场灾难的最大失败者。\n索罗斯当年的惨败原因归根结底是投机心理作祟，揣摩市场时机一意孤行的走到了巨额亏损的境地。\n错误并不可耻，可耻的是错误已经显而易见了还不去修正。承担风险，无可指责。但同时记住千万不能孤注一掷。对错都不重要，关键是弄错的时候你损失了多少，判断正确的时候又赚了多少。\n吉姆·罗杰斯：买其所值，卖其疯狂\n华尔街投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯曾指出，应该耐心等待好时机，赚了钱获利了结，然后等待下一次机会。如此，才可以战胜别人。\n市场走势时常会呈现长期的低迷不振，为了避免使资金陷入一潭死水的市场中，投资者应该等待能够改变市场走势的催化因素出现。买其所值，卖其疯狂。\n菲利普·费雪\n菲利普·费雪是现代投资理论的开路先锋之一，成长股投资策略之父，教父级的投资大师，华尔街极受尊重和推崇的投资家之一。\n要学会花很多时间来研究，并不急于买入。在一个连续下跌的市场环境中，不要过快地买入那些不熟悉的股票。\n1929年美国股市处在崩溃前的疯狂牛市中，但费雪发现美国许多产业前景不稳，股市有严重泡沫。\n1929年8月，他向银行高级主管提交了一份「25年来最严重的大空头市场将展开。」的报告。这可以说是费雪一生中最令人赞叹的股市预测，可惜的是费雪「看空做多」。\n他说：「我免不了被股市的魁力所惑。于是到处寻找一些还算便宜的股票，因为它们还没涨到位。」1929年10月美股突然崩溃，费雪也没有幸免于难，在股灾中他损失惨重，费雪亦血本无归。\n费雪开始明白，决定股票价格的主要因素，不是当年的P/E，而是未来几年的预期P/E。他说，若能培养自己的能力，在合理的上下限内确定某只股票未来几年可能的业绩，就能找到一把钥匙，不但能避免亏损，更能赚得厚利。\n比尔·米勒\n「我经常提醒我的分析师们，你们关于公司的信息100%代表了公司的过去，而股票的估值100%取决于未来。」\n米勒管理的Legg Mason价值型信托基金在1991—2005年这15年当中，连续战胜标准普尔500指数，创造了有史以来最辉煌的基金经理业绩记录，被誉为这个时代最成功的基金经理。然而，在短短一年时间里，这个荣誉就被他亲手毁掉了。\n在次贷危机中，很多原来非常优秀的公司股票连续大幅下跌，米勒认为投资者反应过度了，于是逆市买入。他本以为那次危机是一次大好的赚钱良机，结果危机却变成大萧条之后最惨重的大熊市。\n虽然过去15年来他逆向操作的投资决策事后都证明是正确的，但这次却栽得很惨。米勒的股票清单就像是这次危机中的「烈士榜」：AIG、贝尔斯登、房地美、花旗、华盛顿互助银行等。\n2008年，已经58岁的米勒接受采访时说：「从一开始我就没能恰当地估计到这场流动性危机的严重性」。\n尽管米勒以前经常从市场恐慌中赚钱，但他说，这次自己没想到危机会这么严重，基本面的问题如此之深，以至于曾贵为市场领头羊的优质上市公司居然统统倒下了。\n「我还是缺乏经验」，米勒说，「每一个买进股票的决定都是错的，真是太可怕了。」\n经验教训「任何超常发挥的投资组合，在某段时间内能成功，是因为具有价格错位的保险性。市场对这个未来数的估计是错的。我们通过比较市场，对此公司的估值以及我们自己对公司的估值，用多种要素组合的方法来找出价格错位。」\n二、股市暴跌，普通投资者怎么办？\n状况一：手中股票已经跌到成本区\n建议：在这种状况下，谨慎的投资者应该选择离场，比较激进的也要设置止损价，然后观察一两天再作出决定。不要盲目杀跌，也不要对自己买的股票有情绪，在这个时刻，头脑一定要清醒。\n状况二：手中股票已经出现亏损\n建议：这种亏损也需要分类对待，投资者可查看相关资料，如果手中股票属于基金重仓股，那么就不要盲目斩仓，甚至在大盘快速暴跌的情况下，可分批补仓，摊低成本，和基金死磕到底。（如遇熊市下跌过程中或股灾的时候，不适合用这条建议）\n而如果通过查看资料发现，该股票主力主要是由个别大户操纵的，这样的股票在市场持续不佳的情况下，投资者应该坚决出局，保住现金争取更大的主动性。因为这种股票的主力在大盘真正暴跌时一般不会护盘。\n另外，还有一些成交比较清淡的个股，没有明显主力介入的迹象，那么一定要设立止损价位，这种股票的性质主要以跟风为主，一旦跌破长期形成的平台，一定要坚决离场。\n状况三：手中一半是钱一半是股票\n建议：如果投资者这部分股票处于盈利状态，而市场趋势始终看不明朗，那么应将股票出掉，保留现金。毕竟市场中的机会很多，保留现金才能在市场中有更大的话语权。\n如果是手中这部分股票已经亏损，那么投资者应该选择市场在大幅下跌之后，并出现走稳趋向的时候，迅速补充自己手中的股票。而如果补仓后，该股当天涨幅较大，可当天做变相T+0，锁定一部分利润。\n状况四：手中都是钱想进场\n建议：如果是激进型的投资者，并有一定看盘能力的，可以根据市场情况抢反弹，但应以短线思维为主。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2018,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}