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Vivi911
2021-03-22

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The surge in US Treasury Bond yields is getting worse, will the Fed "submit"?

英国媒体周六报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。

The surge in US Treasury Bond yields is getting worse, will the Fed "submit"?

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The Financial Times said that despite Powell's laissez-faire approach to U.S. Treasury Bond yields, investors are still questioning how long the Fed can allow such rates to run compared to his counterparts in the euro zone.</p><p>\"It's not the level of yield that matters, but the way it interacts with risky assets,\" said Gene Tannuzzo, head of global fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. \"If yields rise at a rate that causes stocks to fall and credit spreads to widen, then Powell will be even more concerned.\"</p><p>In the past week, the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped to 1.75%, up from about 1.6% a few days ago. The Bloomberg Barclays index shows that the price of U.S. Treasury Bond 10 years or longer has fallen by nearly 15% since the start of the year. If these losses persist, the first quarter of this year will be the worst sell-off in the U.S. Treasury Bond since at least the early 1970s.</p><p>The sell-off in U.S. Treasury Bond reflects a sharp rise in inflation and growth expectations, with economists suspecting that the Fed will eventually be forced to present its first rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank is concerned that borrowing costs for companies and individuals could rise harmfully, so it has taken measures to resist rising yields on its Treasury Bond. In contrast, the Fed chairman did not appear uneasy, in stark contrast to what happened in March 2020, when policymakers aligned with banks and other market participants on chaotic market movements.</p><p>The sell-off quickly began to spread to the stock and credit markets, which angered investors. Treasury Bond yields even topped some expectations for the year's highest following a poor U.S. Treasury Bond auction in February, triggering volatile trading.</p><p>Powell on Wednesday again dismissed doubts that should be concerned about near-term volatility in the $2.1 billion U.S. government bond market, reiterating that financial conditions remain \"highly accommodative\" across various indicators, while the central bank will only worry about \"disorder\" that could undermine money markets to support the economic recovery. \"move. To illustrate this point, he said he had no intention of adjusting the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>\"The market may force them to change their behavior, but for now Fed policymakers are making it clear that they don't want to be directly involved in behavior that has an impact on the yield curve,\" said Rish Bhandari, senior portfolio manager at hedge funds.</p><p>Mike Collins, senior portfolio manager at PGIM's fixed income division, warned that another sharp rise in US Treasury Bond yields could test their stance.</p><p>\"Financial conditions do remain accommodative, but if interest rates go up another 0.5 to 1 percentage point, that does slow down,\" he said. The rebound in equity and credit markets may also be severe enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene verbally or even move to buying more long-term debt.</p>","source":"fxdaily_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The surge in US Treasury Bond yields is getting worse, will the Fed \"submit\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe surge in US Treasury Bond yields is getting worse, will the Fed \"submit\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">FX168</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-21 12:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>British media reported on Saturday (March 20th) that the Federal Reserve was caught in a \"showdown\" with the market.</p><p>This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the burgeoning economic outlook and the possibility of further rising inflation, while underscoring his commitment to keeping interest rates at a minimum for the foreseeable future.</p><p>But this accommodative approach to inflation is eroding the price of long-term U.S. government bonds, causing ripples in global markets. The Financial Times said that despite Powell's laissez-faire approach to U.S. Treasury Bond yields, investors are still questioning how long the Fed can allow such rates to run compared to his counterparts in the euro zone.</p><p>\"It's not the level of yield that matters, but the way it interacts with risky assets,\" said Gene Tannuzzo, head of global fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. \"If yields rise at a rate that causes stocks to fall and credit spreads to widen, then Powell will be even more concerned.\"</p><p>In the past week, the benchmark ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield jumped to 1.75%, up from about 1.6% a few days ago. The Bloomberg Barclays index shows that the price of U.S. Treasury Bond 10 years or longer has fallen by nearly 15% since the start of the year. If these losses persist, the first quarter of this year will be the worst sell-off in the U.S. Treasury Bond since at least the early 1970s.</p><p>The sell-off in U.S. Treasury Bond reflects a sharp rise in inflation and growth expectations, with economists suspecting that the Fed will eventually be forced to present its first rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank is concerned that borrowing costs for companies and individuals could rise harmfully, so it has taken measures to resist rising yields on its Treasury Bond. In contrast, the Fed chairman did not appear uneasy, in stark contrast to what happened in March 2020, when policymakers aligned with banks and other market participants on chaotic market movements.</p><p>The sell-off quickly began to spread to the stock and credit markets, which angered investors. Treasury Bond yields even topped some expectations for the year's highest following a poor U.S. Treasury Bond auction in February, triggering volatile trading.</p><p>Powell on Wednesday again dismissed doubts that should be concerned about near-term volatility in the $2.1 billion U.S. government bond market, reiterating that financial conditions remain \"highly accommodative\" across various indicators, while the central bank will only worry about \"disorder\" that could undermine money markets to support the economic recovery. \"move. To illustrate this point, he said he had no intention of adjusting the Fed's $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.</p><p>\"The market may force them to change their behavior, but for now Fed policymakers are making it clear that they don't want to be directly involved in behavior that has an impact on the yield curve,\" said Rish Bhandari, senior portfolio manager at hedge funds.</p><p>Mike Collins, senior portfolio manager at PGIM's fixed income division, warned that another sharp rise in US Treasury Bond yields could test their stance.</p><p>\"Financial conditions do remain accommodative, but if interest rates go up another 0.5 to 1 percentage point, that does slow down,\" he said. The rebound in equity and credit markets may also be severe enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene verbally or even move to buying more long-term debt.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml\">FX168</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56aa88d539d7b65b8089a421c05150c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://news.fx168.com/bank/fed/2103/4838373.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120549145","content_text":"英国媒体周六（3月20日）报道称，美联储正陷入与市场的“摊牌”中。\n本周，美联储主席鲍威尔承认迅速发展的经济前景以及通货膨胀率进一步攀升的可能，同时强调了他在可预见的未来将利率保持在最低水平的承诺。\n但是，这种对通货膨胀的宽松态度正在侵蚀美国长期政府债券的价格，在全球市场上引发了涟漪。英国《金融时报》称，尽管鲍威尔对美国国债的收益率采取了放任不管的方法，但与他在欧元区的同行相比，投资者仍在质疑美联储可以允许这种利率运行多长时间。\nColumbia Threadneedle Investments全球固定收益负责人Gene Tannuzzo表示：“重要的不是收益率水平，而是其与风险资产之间的相互作用方式。” “如果收益率以导致股市下跌和信贷息差扩大的速度上升，那么鲍威尔将更加担忧。”\n在过去的一周中，基准十年期美国国债收益率跳升至1.75％，几天前约为1.6％。彭博巴克莱（Bloomberg Barclays）指数显示，自今年年初以来，10年或更长期的美国国债价格下跌了近15％。如果这些损失持续下去，那么今年第一季度将是至少自1970年代初以来美国国债遭遇最严重的一次抛售。\n美国国债被抛售反映出通胀和增长预期大幅提升，经济学家怀疑美联储最终将被迫提出首次加息。\n欧洲央行担心公司和个人的借贷成本可能会有害地增加，因此采取措施以抵制其国债收益率的上涨。相比之下，美联储主席表现得并未有任何不安，这与2020年3月的情形形成鲜明对比，当时决策者就混乱的市场走势与银行和其他市场参与者保持一致。\n抛售的迅速开始蔓延到股票和信贷市场，这激怒了投资者。2月份美国国债拍卖表现不佳之后，国债收益率甚至突破了今年最高的一些预期，引发了波动性交易。\n鲍威尔周三再次驳回了应该对21亿美元美国政府债券市场的近期波动担忧的疑虑，重申各种指标的财务状况仍然“高度宽松”，而央行只会担心可能破坏货币市场支持经济复苏的“无序”举动。为说明这一点，他表示无意调整美联储每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划。\n对冲基金高级投资组合经理Rish Bhandari表示：“市场可能会迫使他们改变其行为，但目前美联储决策者明确表示，他们不希望直接参与对收益率曲线产生影响的行为。”\nPGIM固定收益部高级投资组合经理Mike Collins警告说，美国国债收益率的再次大幅上升可能会考验他们的立场。\n他说：“金融状况确实仍然很宽松，但是如果利率再上升0.5至1个百分点，那的确会放慢脚步。”股票和信贷市场的反弹可能也足够严重，以至于促使美联储进行口头干预，甚至转向购买更多长期债务的措施。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"BND":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SH":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}