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雨季不再来丿
2021-03-27

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Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?

作者：张瑜付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、

Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":356298284,"tweetId":"356298284","gmtCreate":1616776167548,"gmtModify":1704798923458,"author":{"id":3577161133906785,"idStr":"3577161133906785","authorId":3577161133906785,"authorIdStr":"3577161133906785","name":"雨季不再来丿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac8adc52333ac0ca2a63796e90143dd","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>good</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>good</body></html>","text":"good","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/356298284","repostId":1170764582,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170764582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616765445,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170764582?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-26 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? How much impact does it have on the stock market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170764582","media":" 一瑜中的","summary":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、","content":"Author: Zhang Yu Fu ChunshengMain viewsAfter the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.Biden Tax Increase: How?1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.Second, there are precedents for tax increases.Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?The first key time point: April-May this year.When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.The second critical time point: October.First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.Report Table of Contents<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Report textAfter the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1. Roosevelt's New DealAfter the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.2. Eisenhower: Interstate HighwayIn the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.3. Clinton: Information Superhighway PlanIn 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus billAfter the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?1. Three key points of infrastructure planThe plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areasOverall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).First, build modern infrastructure facilities.1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, and provide an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.Seventh, community equality and development.1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].2. Biden's tax increase: how?Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it was written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI below 10% of qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economyThe impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for these 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:The first key time point: April-May this year.When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.The second critical time point: October.The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1584436024241","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Detailed explanation of Biden's reconstruction plan: how to build it? 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How much impact does it have on the stock market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n 一瑜中的2021-03-26 21:30\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Zhang Yu Fu ChunshengMain viewsAfter the $1.9 trillion relief was implemented, discussions about Biden's infrastructure plan heated up rapidly. Since the plan has not yet been officially announced, this report is based on the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign, and understands Biden's infrastructure and tax increase plan from four perspectives (necessity, historical comparison, specific measures, and impact). Increase taxes in order to get a general understanding of the measures and impacts of future formal reconstruction plans.Biden Infrastructure: How to Build it?1. Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?Very necessary. First of all, the infrastructure situation is worrying. According to the latest ASCE assessment, the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. According to the Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019 and 5th in 2002. Second, there is a large-scale investment gap. The total infrastructure investment gap in the next ten years has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars. Finally, the intensity of infrastructure expenditure is far lower than that of major economies. Europe's infrastructure expenditure is equivalent to 5% of GDP, China's infrastructure expenditure accounts for about 8% of GDP, and the United States' only 2.4%. The United States mainly relies on local and state governments for infrastructure investment, but local governments are gradually beyond their reach. As the stock of infrastructure continues to grow, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, and new investment has been declining since the early 2000s.2. Is there any precedent for the federal government to lead infrastructure investment?From a historical comparison, Biden infrastructure is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, with infrastructure expenditures of US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's information superhighway plan invested a total of 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. The scale of Biden's infrastructure investment is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.3. What are Biden's specific measures for infrastructure construction?The plan proposed on Biden's campaign website is $2 trillion over 10 years, accounting for 9.3% of GDP in 2019; Among them, infrastructure investment was US $1.3 trillion, accounting for 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan has three key points: 1) The content is very extensive. It covers eight major areas: modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, equal community development and manufacturing revitalization. 2) Promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. 3) Keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing manufacturing relocation is intrinsically consistent with the need to create jobs. It should be noted that the amount of investment in various fields in the plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have put forward clear investment amounts.4. What impact will Biden's infrastructure have on the US economy?1) Impact on GDP: In 10 years, the annual infrastructure expenditure is about 130 billion. Estimated based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (assessed by the University of Maryland and CBO), the annual additional output contribution to GDP is about 52 billion ~ 390 billion US dollars, which is about 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019. 2) Impact on employment: Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years. 3) Bank of America estimates that Biden's infrastructure plan may bring about GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term.Biden Tax Increase: How?1. Biden's tax increase is basically certain.Three major reasons: 1) Tax increase is one of Biden's campaign slogans, and there is a high probability that it will be fulfilled. 2) It is clearly stated on the Biden campaign website that the 1.3 trillion infrastructure investment will all be raised by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. 3) Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (Biden's reconstruction plan) will be raised by tax increases.Second, there are precedents for tax increases.Since the 1950s, the income tax rate in the United States has been on a downward trend as a whole, with more tax cuts and less tax increases. There were three major tax increases. One was the Vietnam War surtax levied from 1968 to 1970 to cope with Vietnam War expenditures. Second, in 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes in response to the deficit growth. Third, Clinton raised taxes in 1993, which was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950, and its purpose was also to reduce the fiscal deficit.Third, the tax burden of the rich increases, and the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces; The corporate tax burden has increased, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return.The target of Biden's tax increase is very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased. On the one hand, raise the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of wealthy groups; on the other hand, raise the corporate income tax rate again and adjust some other corporate taxes.4. What impact will Biden's tax increase have on the US economy?As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total 10-year revenue). In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.Two key points in time: When will a formal redevelopment plan likely be rolled out?The first key time point: April-May this year.When Biden proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: When I attend the joint session of Congress for the first time next month, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future'. Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24th, White House spokesman Psaki said that there is no determined time yet. Historically, the president has attended and delivered a speech to a joint session of Congress no more than February at the latest. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.The second critical time point: October.First, after October, the Democratic Party can start the budget reconciliation process again. Second, the positive statement of the top Democratic Party indicates that it will push the reconstruction plan into Congress for voting as soon as possible or push the reconstruction plan to go through the budget reconciliation process at the beginning of the new fiscal year.Risk warning: There are differences within the Democratic Party on the reconstruction plan.Report Table of Contents<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2d175dd5fcc77e4928e9a8001033b8\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Report textAfter the implementation of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, the discussion about the Build Back Better Recovery Plan (because most of its measures are related to infrastructure, relevant reports and reports at home and abroad also call it the Biden infrastructure plan) heated up rapidly. According to a Bloomberg report on March 22, the recent reconstruction plan will be submitted to Biden, and the plan also includes a tax increase plan. White House Press Secretary Psaki also said on the 22nd that time is running out, so he will discuss with his team what options, scale and scope are available this week. According to Biden's statement when proposing the relief plan, he will introduce his reconstruction plan to members of Congress when he attends the joint session of Congress for the first time and delivers a speech to the joint session of Congress, so the reconstruction plan may be officially unveiled in April.Since Biden's reconstruction plan has not yet been announced, this report uses the infrastructure plan and tax increase plan proposed by Biden during the election campaign as a blue book for analysis.1. Biden infrastructure: how to build it?Regarding Biden's infrastructure, we can mainly clarify four issues. First, is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present? Second, is there any historical experience of the U.S. government leading large-scale infrastructure investment? If so, from a historical comparison, what is the scale of Biden's infrastructure investment? Third, how to build the specific areas and measures of the infrastructure plan? Fourth, what is the impact of the infrastructure plan on the US economy?(1) Is it necessary for the United States to develop infrastructure at present?The current infrastructure situation in the United States is worrying, and it is very necessary to make large-scale investment. Most infrastructure systems in the United States were built in the 1960s, and many facilities have reached their maximum useful life and are close to being scrapped.First, the infrastructure situation is worrying, and the comprehensive evaluation grade is low. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) rated U.S. infrastructure with a D + (grade A-F) in 2017, and the rating was raised to C-in 2021. Although the rating has improved, it also shows that the infrastructure in the United States is still mostly below standard, showing serious deterioration. From a global comparison, the rating of the infrastructure sector in the United States has also been declining in the past two decades. According to the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the United States ranked 13th in the world in the field of infrastructure in 2019, compared with 5th in 2002, a drop of 8 places in 17 years.2. There is currently a large-scale infrastructure investment gap in the United States. If it is not filled, it will have a huge negative impact on economic and social development. There are two sources of assessment: 1) The 2021 report of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) believes that the total gap in infrastructure investment in the United States has reached 2.59 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. If it is not made up, the United States will lose 10 trillion US dollars by 2039. GDP, a loss of 2.4 trillion exports. 2) McKinsey's 2016 study believes that from 2017 to 2030, $150 billion in infrastructure investment will be needed every year to keep up with the U.S. economy's demand for infrastructure.3. U.S. infrastructure spending is far lower than that of major economies in the world, and it mainly relies on state and local governments. European countries spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on building and maintaining infrastructure, and China's infrastructure expenditure averages about 8% of its GDP, while the United States only spends 2.4% [1]. In addition, unlike most other industrialized countries, the United States mainly relies on local and state government expenditures to meet its infrastructure needs. Most European countries or regions provide funds for most infrastructure construction at the national level, but only 25% of public infrastructure funds in the United States in 2017 came from the federal government. This figure is far lower than the peak of 38% in 1977, indicating that the federal government has less and less responsibility for spending on public infrastructure. As the stock of infrastructure in the United States continues to increase, state and local governments have to bear more operating and maintenance costs, which has also caused new investment in infrastructure to decline since the early 2000s.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d1fe0e962d44eff5f6d6a13da64df6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80cf9e50d231575711b16ef73e71bb98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(2) Has the federal government made major investments in infrastructure in history?Since the last century, the United States has experienced four large-scale infrastructure investments led by the federal government. From a historical comparison, Biden's infrastructure plan is the second largest federal infrastructure investment in the United States since the last century. Since the last century, the U.S. federal government has led four rounds of large-scale infrastructure investment. The largest investment is Roosevelt's New Deal, with public works-related expenditures of $18 billion, accounting for 31% of GDP in 1933; The smallest investment is Obama's ARRA Act, in which infrastructure expenditure is US $120 billion, accounting for 0.8% of GDP in 2009. Eisenhower's cost of building interstate highways was $25 billion, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP in 1956, and Clinton's total investment in information superhighway plan was 400 billion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP in 1993. Infrastructure spending announced on Biden's campaign website is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019, making it the second largest investment since the last century.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/482f1bb788c01537a9201e79b2e0f4b1\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">1. Roosevelt's New DealAfter the Great Depression, in order to stimulate employment recovery, Roosevelt signed the National Industrial Recovery Act in 1933. He believed that extensive public works programs could directly bring employment opportunities. Through the establishment of Federal Economic Relief Agency, Public Works Administration (PWA), Public Utilities Promotion Agency (WPA) and other agencies, it has brought more than 10 million jobs to the United States. By the eve of World War II, the federal government's engineering expenses and direct relief expenses amounted to $18 billion, accounting for 31% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 14% of the U.S. GDP in 1941. If we look at expenditure in a broad sense, the total federal expenditure of Roosevelt's New Deal was $41.7 billion, accounting for 73% of the U.S. GDP in 1933 and 32% of the U.S. GDP in 1941.Large-scale public works expenditure has also achieved remarkable results: in terms of public works, WPA's small projects include 78,000 bridges and viaducts, and 572,000 miles of rural roads; In the first six years of its establishment, PWA completed about 1.14 street and highway projects, totaling 37,000 miles [2]. By the eve of World War II, the United States had built nearly 1,000 airports, more than 12,000 sports fields, and more than 800 school buildings and hospitals. In terms of employment, WPA alone provided jobs for about eight million people in 1935-1943.2. Eisenhower: Interstate HighwayIn the 1950s, Eisenhower advocated the construction of an interstate highway system in the United States. In 1956, he signed the Federal Aid Highway Act, obtaining a $25 billion authorization to build 41,000 miles of interstate highways over a decade, which would be paid by tax revenue such as the gas tax deposited into the Federal Highway Trust Fund, with the federal government providing about 90% of the total expenditure and the remaining 10% being paid by the states. The cost of building interstate highways was about 5.6% of U.S. GDP in 1956.3. Clinton: Information Superhighway PlanIn 1992, US presidential candidate Clinton proposed to build an information superhighway during the election campaign. After Clinton took office in 1993, the information superhighway plan was officially implemented. The planned investment is US $400 billion over 20 years, and telecommunications optical cables will be gradually laid to all household users. In 1994, the U.S. government put forward the initiative of building a global information infrastructure, aiming at connecting the global information network through satellite communications and telecommunications optical cables to form a competitive mechanism for information sharing [3]. The total investment in the information superhighway plan accounted for 5.8% of the GDP of the United States in 1993.4. Obama: ARRA fiscal stimulus billAfter the financial crisis, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a fiscal stimulus bill, in February 2009, with an initial total scale of $787 billion. In 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the total expenditure would be about $840 billion, of which about 120 billion was used for infrastructure projects, including 48 billion for transportation and public transportation projects, 31 billion for modernization of federal buildings, 31 billion for modernization of school facilities and scientific facilities, 6 billion for water conservancy projects and 5 billion for housing climate renovation projects. The infrastructure expenditure of the ARRA Act accounted for only 0.8% of GDP in 2009.(3) Specific measures for Biden's infrastructure plan?1. Three key points of infrastructure planThe plan to build modern, sustainable infrastructure and a fair and clean energy future proposed on Biden's campaign website spans 10 years and has a total scale of US $2 trillion, accounting for approximately 9.3% of GDP in 2019; If we only look at infrastructure expenditure, it is approximately US $1.3 trillion, accounting for approximately 6.1% of GDP in 2019. The plan announced on the campaign website has two characteristics:First, the content is very extensive. The plan is not limited to traditional infrastructure and clean energy investment, but also includes new infrastructure such as smart cities and broadband, automobile industry development, building renovation and affordable housing construction, sustainable agriculture, manufacturing revitalization and small and medium-sized enterprise development, community equality and development and other fields.Second, promoting employment and rebuilding the middle class are the highlights. It can be said that increasing employment and rebuilding the middle class is a major purpose of Biden's infrastructure development. In Biden's vision, the plan can significantly create new jobs. For example, investment in infrastructure will create millions of jobs, investment in the automobile industry will create 1 million jobs, investment in the power sector will create millions of jobs, investment in construction and housing will create 1 million high-paying jobs, agricultural protection will create 250,000 jobs, etc.Third, keep manufacturing in the United States. Preventing the relocation of manufacturing industries is inherently consistent with the need to create jobs. This statement has been mentioned many times in the plan, such as: ensuring that automobile manufacturers are encouraged to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China; Invest in battery technology but ensure that battery production takes place domestically, etc.In addition, it is worth noting that the specific investment amount in various fields in the infrastructure plan is still unclear, and only a few projects have proposed clear investment amounts. Because the brief introduction of the plan is very rough and there is no very detailed expenditure plan, the investment amount is only proposed in a few projects, such as: increasing federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term (the specific procurement plan is not specified); $100 billion to improve public school buildings; In his first year in office, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, highways and bridges; Invest $20 billion in rural broadband infrastructure and provide $60 billion in funding to expand broadband access in rural areas; Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas; The $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund is used to fund major infrastructure projects and so on. If the investment quota is explicitly mentioned in the introduction of the plan, the total amount is only over 800 billion dollars.2. Not only infrastructure, but the plan covers eight major areasOverall, Biden's infrastructure plan is not limited to the field of infrastructure, but covers a very wide range of areas, covering modern infrastructure, automobile industry development, clean power investment, building renovation and housing construction, clean energy investment, sustainable agriculture, and community equality There are eight major areas of development and manufacturing revitalization (the following is an introduction, see the appendix for details).First, build modern infrastructure facilities.1) Road repair and construction. In the first year of his administration, he invested $50 billion in repairing highways, roads and bridges, and investing in transportation in remote areas. 2) The second railway revolution. Invest heavily in high-speed rail, improve the passenger and freight railway system, promote the electrification of the railway system, and reduce diesel emissions. 3) Vigorously develop public transportation. By 2030, build a high-quality public transport system in cities with a population of more than 100,000. Invest an additional $10 billion over 10 years to support transportation projects in low-income areas. 4) Improve the airport. Double funding for airport improvement programs, competitive grants for major airport renovation projects, full implementation of next-generation aviation technology systems, etc. 5) Invest heavily in freight infrastructure, including inland waterways, freight corridors, freight railways, transit facilities and ports. Increase the BUILD and INFRA transportation infrastructure grant project grants from 1.8 billion to 3.5 billion per year; Add 2.5 billion annual funding for the Army Corps of Engineers to promote lock modernization on inland waterways; Support port infrastructure. 6) Water conservancy infrastructure construction. Replace aging pipes, double federal investment in clean drinking water and water infrastructure, monitor lead and other pollutants in water systems, and hold polluting enterprises accountable. Invest in water technology research and development and call on private sector innovation. 7) New infrastructure projects: smart city construction. Help 5 cities pilot new planning strategies and smart city technologies with $1 billion a year. Invest in broadband networks. Invest $20 billion to build rural broadband infrastructure, 60 billion to expand broadband access in rural areas, increase the number of broadband providers participating, etc. 8) Establish a transformation project fund. Set up a $40 billion, 10-year transformation project fund to provide assistance for huge and complex infrastructure projects.Second, make the U.S. auto industry lead the world this century and accelerate the transition to low-carbon and carbon-free vehicles.1) Demand side: Restore full tax credits for electric vehicles, use federal procurement to increase demand for clean vehicles, and accelerate the upgrade of 3 million government system vehicles. Set a goal of all new U.S.-made buses being zero-emissions by 2030, converting 500,000 school buses nationwide into zero-emission vehicles. 2) Encourage automobile manufacturers to build or restructure complete vehicle or parts factories in China. 3) Invest $5 billion in battery and energy storage technology over five years, while ensuring battery production takes place domestically. 4) Establish a national charging system of 500,000 public charging outlets, and provide an additional $1 billion in annual funding to ensure that charging stations are installed by certified technicians. 5) Convene the U.S. Department of Energy and Transportation to coordinate special demonstration projects to provide grants to municipalities and counties willing to pilot new charging infrastructure. 6) Establish fuel economy standards and reduce air pollution.Third, clean power investment: achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035.1) Develop clean electricity and achieve carbon-free power generation by 2035. 2) Vigorously develop the power grid, promote market reform, and expand the regional power market. 3) Establish Energy Efficiency and Clean Electricity Standards (EECES) for utilities and grid operators; 4) Upgrade transmission lines to support larger regional electricity markets and promote large-scale energy storage demonstration projects. 5) Research investments and tax incentives for technologies that capture carbon, permanently sequestrate and utilize captured carbon will be doubled.Fourth, building renovation to improve building energy efficiency.1) Promote school modernization. Invest $100 billion to improve public school buildings and upgrade childcare and early learning facilities across the country. 2) Building energy-saving renovation. Upgrade 4 million commercial buildings and carry out energy-saving renovations for 2 million households within 4 years. Promote the electrification of the construction industry and increase investment in key technologies such as energy-saving renovation projects of low-income houses and electric heat pumps; Building net-zero carbon federal buildings, etc. 3) Halve the carbon footprint of U.S. building stock by 2035. 4) Promote the construction of 1.5 million public housing units and inject more funds into low-income communities to promote the construction of affordable housing and the development of small businesses.Fifth, make historic investments in clean energy innovation.1) Increase federal procurement by $400 billion during the first term, with one focus on the purchase of key clean energy inputs such as batteries and electric vehicles. 2) Focus on strategic research areas such as clean energy, clean transportation, clean industrial processes and clean materials in the next 4 years. 3) Strengthen and build key clean energy supply chains in the United States, solve issues such as dependence on rare earth minerals, and accelerate innovation in supply chain resilience. 4) Invest heavily in national laboratories, high-performance computing capability facilities, and other critical infrastructure.Sixth, invest in sustainable agriculture and environmental conservation.1) Call on and mobilize a new generation of Americans to devote themselves to protecting the environment and tackling climate change through civil climate organizations. 2) Make upfront investments to clean up environmental damage and impacts caused by previous resource extraction. 3) Maintaining farms and ranches in America. Provide low-cost funding for farmers to transition to new equipment and methods, fund research and development of precision agriculture and new crops, and establish voluntary carbon farming markets; Pursue pro-worker and pro-family farmer trade policies; Strengthening food supply security and resilience; Ensure fair competition among small and medium-sized farms, etc.Seventh, community equality and development.1) $5 billion annually to expand the new market tax credit and make the program permanent; 2) Double funding for the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund to support financial institutions in low-income areas. 3) Establish a $10 billion Urban Revitalization Fund to carry out creative revitalization projects in struggling cities. 4) Funding anchor institutions in poor areas (referring to hospitals, colleges and universities, and government administrative institutions, etc.). 5) Fully implement the 10-20-30 program (allocating 10% of all federal programs to counties where 20% or more of the population has lived below the poverty line in the past 30 years).Eighth, revitalize the manufacturing industry and small and medium-sized enterprises across the country.1) Revitalize the manufacturing industry. Quadruple funding for the Manufacturing Expansion Partnership program to provide technical support for small manufacturers in global competition; Developing low-carbon manufacturing in every state; Use tax credits and subsidies to help businesses upgrade equipment and processes, invest in expanded or new factories, and deploy low-carbon technologies; Providing funding for more competitive or low-carbon manufacturing, etc. 2) Promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Extend the National Small Business Credit Initiative program until 2025, and increase federal funding to $3 billion; Provide $5 billion to states to develop policies that encourage small business entrepreneurship, such as supporting technology transfer from public universities to the private sector.(4) What is the impact of Biden's infrastructure construction on the US economy?How to assess the impact of infrastructure expenditure on the economy? We can learn from the past evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks: 1) A study by the University of Maryland in 2014 showed that every dollar spent on public transportation infrastructure investment will increase GDP growth by about $3. During the economic recession The impact is greater. 2) According to a 2014 University of Chicago report, an $83 billion infrastructure investment plan-equivalent to roughly 0.6% of GDP-would create 1.7 million jobs in the first three years. 3) According to estimates by global consulting firm McKinsey, every 1 percentage point of GDP increase in U.S. infrastructure spending will add 1.5 million jobs to the economy. 4) The Economic Policy Institute estimates that the return on infrastructure investment is high. A review of dozens of infrastructure studies shows that every $100 spent … will increase private sector output by $13 (median) and $17 (average), respectively, in the long run. 5) According to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) 's assessment of Obama's ARRA bill, the output multiplier of infrastructure category is between 0.4-2.2.We can learn from the evaluation results of infrastructure effects by American academic circles and think tanks to roughly estimate the overall impact of Biden's infrastructure plan on the U.S. economy and employment.1) Impact on GDP: In Biden's infrastructure plan, the determined infrastructure expenditure is approximately US $1.3 trillion, the investment cycle is 10 years, and the average annual expenditure is approximately US $130 billion, accounting for approximately 0.6% of GDP in 2019. Based on the output multiplier of 0.4-3 (combined with the output multiplier estimated by the University of Maryland and CBO), in the next ten years, the annual additional output contribution to GDP will be approximately US $52 billion to US $390 billion, which is approximately 0.2% to 1.8% of nominal GDP in 2019.2) Impact on employment: According to the employment impact estimate of the University of Chicago, infrastructure spending of 1.3 trillion yuan will create more than 2 million jobs per year in the next decade. According to McKinsey's assessment, it is estimated that about 10 million jobs will be created in the next decade. The employment impact of the Biden team in the plan brief is estimated to drive more than 10 million jobs. Taken together, Biden's reconstruction plan may create more than 10 million jobs in the United States in the next ten years.3) Bank of America estimated in a report that Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure plan could lead to GDP growth of 2% to 9% in the short term and significant GDP growth in the long term, and that every 1% increase in U.S. GDP growth will lead to an increase of about 3% to 4% in S&P 500 company earnings [4].2. Biden's tax increase: how?Similarly, we understand Biden's tax increase from four questions. First, is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose of the tax increase? Second, is there a precedent for tax increases in American history? Third, how does Biden plan to raise taxes? Fourth, what impact will tax increases have on the US economy?(1) Is Biden sure to raise taxes? What is the purpose?Is Biden going to raise taxes? The tax increase should be yes. First, Biden clearly proposed a tax increase plan during the campaign. This is one of his campaign slogans and will most likely be fulfilled. Second, it was written on Biden's campaign website that as much as $1.3 trillion in investment in infrastructure will all be funded by ensuring that the super-rich and corporations pay their fair (tax) share. Third, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said that part of the spending on the next bill (referring to Biden's Reconstruction Plan bill) will be raised by tax increases.Biden's tax increase has three purposes: first, to raise funds for the reconstruction plan, second, to fulfill campaign promises, third, to promote tax fairness through tax adjustments, and to adjust the gap between the rich and the poor through secondary distribution. From the adjustment of the tax system, it can be clearly seen that the tax burden pressure of the rich, high-income class and enterprises has increased, while the tax credit of low-and middle-income people has obviously expanded.(2) Is there a precedent for tax increase?Before 1950, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States showed a gradual upward trend. During this period, the main reason for tax increase was to raise funds for war. During World War I and World War II, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax rose sharply. Since the 1950s, the highest marginal tax rates of personal income tax and corporate income tax in the United States have shown a gradual downward trend as a whole, with many periods of tax reduction and few periods of tax increase.Since 1950, there have been five major tax cuts: Kennedy's tax cut in 1963, Carter's tax cut in 1979, Reagan's tax cut in 1980s, George W. Bush's tax cut in 2001, and Trump's tax cut in 2017.The most obvious tax increases since 1950 have been three times.The first time was in the late 1960s, and the main reason for the tax increase was war factors. From 1968 to 1970, in order to cope with the expenditure of the Vietnam War, the United States imposed a Vietnam War surtax, which was abolished after 1970.The second time was in 1990, in order to cope with the sharp increase in social public expenditure such as defense and medical care, George H.W. Bush passed the Monitoring Budget Mediation Act of 1990 in 1990, which raised the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 28% to 31%.The third time was Clinton's tax increase in 1993, and this time it was also the largest and largest tax increase in the United States since 1950. In order to reduce the fiscal deficit, Clinton proposed a tax increase plan in 1993, increasing the maximum marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 31% to 39.6% and the maximum marginal tax rate of corporate income tax from 34% to 35%. It is worth noting that the increase in the highest marginal tax rate of personal income tax from 35% to 39.6% in 2012 was not caused by the tax increase, but because George W. Bush's tax reduction period had expired, and the tax rate automatically returned to the level before the tax reduction.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059fc482c64a72c92006019e12fd347f\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a271519721bfe2d2e70b5c022a30421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) How does Biden plan to increase taxes?Biden's tax increase is mainly in two aspects:First, the payroll tax, income tax, capital gains tax and inheritance tax of high-income groups; second, the corporate income tax rate is re-raised and some corporate taxes are adjusted.It can be seen from the specific details of the following clauses that Biden's tax increase targets are very clear, that is, wealthy groups and enterprises, and the tax incentives and credits for the middle and lower classes of society have actually increased.1. Adjustment of individual tax system: the tax burden of the rich increases, while the burden of the middle and lower classes reduces1) A 12.4% Social Security payroll tax is imposed on people earning more than $400,000 a year, which is equally divided between employers and employees. Under the advance tax law, individuals earning more than 137,700 per year are not required to pay Social Security payroll taxes.2) Increase the maximum individual income tax rate for taxable income exceeding $400,000 to 39.6% from 37% as stipulated by current law; For groups with an annual income of more than $400,000, even if there are tax incentives for itemized deductions, their personal income tax rate shall not be less than 28%; Restore the Pease limit on deductions for items with taxable income exceeding $400,000; Phase out the qualifying business income deduction for groups with taxable income over $400,000.3) Taxes long-term capital gains and qualified Dividend income above $1 million at the ordinary income tax rate of 39.6%, eliminating the progressiveness of capital gains tax.4) Tax credits: Expand the earned income tax credit for childless employees over 65 to provide renewable energy-related tax credits for individuals; Expand the Child and Dependent Tax Credit (CDCTC) from a maximum of $3,000 to $8,000 ($16,000 for multiple dependents) and increase the maximum reimbursement rate from 35% to 50%. In 2021, increase the Child Tax Credit (CTC) for children 17 and under from a maximum of $2,000 to $3,000, while providing an additional $600 credit for children under 6 that the CTC will refund in full. It is worth mentioning that measures regarding CTC have been implemented in the 1.9 trillion relief package; Rebuild the first-time homebuyer tax credit policy with a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers.5) Restore the rates and allowances for estate and gift taxes to 2009 levels. After Trump's tax reform in 2017, the inheritance and gift tax exemption for 2018-2025 was increased from 5 million to 10 million per person, and the tax rate was still set at 40%. If it returns to 2009 levels, the tax allowance will be reduced from the current 10 million to 3.5 million, and the tax rate will be increased from 40% to 45%.6) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: replacing traditional deductions by providing refundable tax credits to balance the tax benefits of traditional retirement accounts (such as 401 (k) s and IRAs); Elimination of certain provisions of real estate taxes; Expanding the Affordable Care Act's premium tax credit; Create refundable tenant tax credits and provide credits of up to $5 billion per year, designed to keep rent and utility bills below 30% of a tenant's monthly income; Increase the amount of housing tax credit for low-income people.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee544b934d79e80772ee93dede7fba86\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c55ac12a24c96f38ba548d45117f82cb\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Corporate tax system adjustment: the tax burden increases, but the manufacturing industry is encouraged to return1) Increase the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.2) Impose a minimum tax on companies with book profits exceeding $100 million. The minimum tax is an alternative tax-businesses will pay the higher of regular corporate income tax or the 15% minimum tax, still allowing net operating loss (NOL) and foreign tax credits.3) Double the Global Intangible Low Tax Income tax rate for overseas subsidiaries of U.S. companies from 10.5% to 21%. A sub-country assessment of GILTI for overseas subsidiaries is proposed, removing the provision that treats GILTI below 10% of qualified business asset investment (QBAI) as a return exemption.Before the tax reform in 2017, the United States generally taxed the global income of its companies and residents, and American companies could apply to postpone taxation of the active business income of overseas subsidiaries until the income was repatriated to the United States as Dividend. After the tax reform, the United States exempted the gains from the active business of overseas subsidiaries of American companies from being taxed even if these gains were repatriated (but still taxed the passive investment income of foreign subsidiaries). The U.S. Congress, concerned that the full exemption of overseas income of multinational companies could exacerbate its practice of shifting profits to overseas low-tax jurisdictions, has set a minimum tax rate of 10.5% on low-tax income from intangible assets worldwide to discourage profit shifting. GILTI refers to the revenue generated by intangible assets such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights. Intangible assets are highly moveable, and this tax rate seeks to discourage U.S. companies from moving intangible assets overseas.4) Tax credits: Establish a manufacturing tax credit; Expand and make permanent tax credits in new markets; Tax credits for small businesses that adopt workplace retirement savings plans; Expand tax credits related to renewable energy, including those for carbon capture, use and storage and those for residential energy efficiency, and reinstate the Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and EV tax credit, ending tax subsidies for fossil fuels.5) Other adjustment items that lack clear information: Impose a 10% surtax on companies that move manufacturing and service jobs abroad in order to sell products or provide services to the U.S. market. Provides a preferred 10% Made in America tax credit for activities that resume production, revitalize facilities that have closed or are about to close, restructure facilities to promote manufacturing employment or expand manufacturing wages.(4) The impact of Biden's tax increase on the U.S. economyThe impact of tax increases on the economy is relatively complex. We mainly draw on the assessment of overseas think tanks to roughly understand the impact of Biden's tax increases on the U.S. economy.As far as economic growth is concerned, both the Tax Foundation and the Tax Policy Center estimate that tax increases will have a negative impact on economic growth in the next decade, which will reduce GDP by 1.62% to 3.4% in the next decade. In terms of tax revenue, the Tax Foundation believes tax increases could raise about 2.8 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade, while the Tax Policy Center estimates that tax increases will reduce federal revenue by $161 billion over the next decade (about 8% of total revenue over those 10 years).In addition, the Tax Foundation predicts that the tax increase will reduce the wage level, lose jobs, narrow the income gap, but reduce the overall after-tax income of residents.1. Estimates from the Tax Foundation1) Impact on fiscal revenue: Biden's tax plan will raise approximately $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years. 2) Economic impact: In the next decade, it will reduce GDP by a total of 1.62%, GNP by a total of 1.83%, capital stock by 3.75%, long-term average wages by 1.15%, and 542,000 jobs will be lost. 3) The impact of income distribution: Biden's tax plan will reduce the after-tax income of the richest 1% of taxpayers by about 7.7% by 2030, and the average after-tax income of all taxpayers will drop by 1.9%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92310243b616c89248067f2f1a18ffc3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tax Policy Center (TaxPolicy Center)1) Economic impact: The U.S. GDP will decrease by a total of 3.4% in the next ten years. The impact on GDP will turn positive in 2040. In the years after 2040, the positive impact will gradually increase. 2) Revenue impact: It will reduce U.S. federal revenue by $161 billion from 2021 to 2030 (approximately 8% of total revenue for these 10 years) and by $90 billion from 2031 to 2040. By 2040, the impact of the tax plan on federal revenue will turn positive, and its positive effect will gradually increase in the subsequent years of 2040.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b75c8d26db2d05446f6e6db4dec6a9a\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a76e285bdc0d17be49c9ec0fbade5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. Key time points: When may the formal reconstruction plan be launched?At present, the Biden team has not announced the formal plan and investment details. To track Biden's reconstruction plan in the future, there are two key time points worthy of attention:The first key time point: April-May this year.When Biden first proposed the U.S. relief plan on January 14 this year, he made it clear: Next month, when I attend my first joint session of Congress, I will propose my 'Recovery Plan for a Better Future' [5]. Under normal circumstances, Biden's reconstruction plan should have been formally proposed in February, but the epidemic is the top priority. On February 11, House Speaker Pelosi said that we will not do anything until we pass the COVID-19 pandemic relief bill.When will the joint session of Congress be held? That's the key. On March 24, White House spokesperson Psaki said that there is no time set yet … We are certainly still interested in committing to a joint meeting. We will be in touch with them, but I don't know exactly when. Historically, presidents have attended and delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress no later than February. It is now expected overseas that Biden will officially attend the joint session of Congress [6] in April, when he will introduce the reconstruction plan to lawmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the White House may submit a detailed budget plan to Congress in May. According to the statement of the top Democratic Party, it is hoped that the infrastructure plan will pass the committees under the Senate and the House of Representatives in May. Therefore, we expect that the total scale of the reconstruction plan and the specific project details will most likely be announced in April-May.The second critical time point: October.The launch and implementation of Biden's reconstruction plan requires the approval of the U.S. Congress. At present, the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives and can easily pass bills in the House of Representatives. But the Democratic Party has only a slight advantage in the Senate, with only one more vote than the Republican Party, and can't bypass the Senate filibuster (60 votes required). There are only two ways for Biden's reconstruction plan to pass the Senate. First, on the premise of ensuring the consent of all Democratic senators, win the support of at least 10 Republican senators. The second is to start the budget reconciliation process again, which is consistent with the congressional process of the 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan, and only 51 votes are needed to pass the Senate.Judging from the current attitude of the top Republican Senate, the feasibility of the first method is very low. Senate Republican leader McConnell said on Monday: We have heard that the so-called infrastructure bill may be proposed in the next few months. In fact, it may be a Trojan horse hiding substantial tax increases and other left-wing policies that harm jobs.If Biden's reconstruction plan is to be implemented, the most likely thing is to start the budget reconciliation process. The U.S. fiscal year is from October to September of the following year, and the budget reconciliation process can generally only be used once a fiscal year (originally, the three areas of revenue, expenditure and deficit have an opportunity to start the budget reconciliation process every fiscal year, but the bill generally involves more than one area, basically all three areas will be covered. According to historical experience, the budget reconciliation process is also at most once a fiscal year). This year's 1.9 trillion U.S. relief plan has already used the quota of fiscal year 2021. October is the second critical point in time. First, by October, the Democratic Party can activate the budget reconciliation process again. Second, judging from the statements of Democratic lawmakers, they hope to quickly pass the reconstruction plan bill. For example, House Speaker Pelosi hopes that Congress will take quick action to formulate a transformative infrastructure plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b55345e7966f98cb44655e2ee1d5f0ea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Appendix IV: Detailed Contents of Biden's Reconstruction Plan<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aeb3bd2d6946393ea99fee60d03300f\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118a22c23672c23b7ffdaff2e00b0f9b\" tg-width=\"805\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd4d7b6dfaec3e2161aa5abc88d706f\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee04e29c93d385e9e3f0123b9a2a6941\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a302cf76ac1ec43059d2ec6818aa587\" tg-width=\"806\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA\"> 一瑜中的</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7dc206228e5f0b17e2120c141f32db","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wHg1mjYamSNUdcMzJvj0VA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170764582","content_text":"作者：张瑜 付春生主要观点1.9万亿美元救济落地后，关于拜登基建计划的讨论热度迅速升温。由于计划目前尚未正式公布，本篇报告以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本，从四个角度（必要性、历史比较、具体措施、影响）去理解拜登的基建和加税，以期对未来正式的重建计划的措施和影响进行大致摸底。拜登基建：怎么建？一、美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？非常有必要。首先，基础设施状况堪忧。据ASCE最新评估，美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。据《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名居全球第13位，2002年时则居第5位。其次，存在大规模投资缺口。未来十年基建总投资缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元。最后，基建支出力度远低于主要经济体，欧洲基建支出相当于GDP的5％，中国基建支出约占GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％。美国主要依赖地方和州政府进行基建投资，但地方政府逐渐「力不能及」。随着基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，新增投资额自21世纪初以来一直下降。二、有无联邦政府主导基建投资的先例？从历史比较看，拜登基建是上世纪来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来，美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程类支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登基建投资的规模大约1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。三、拜登基建的具体措施有哪些？拜登竞选网站上提出的计划规模为2 万亿美元，为期10年，占2019年GDP的9.3%；其中基建投资1.3万亿美元，占2019年GDP的6.1%。计划有三个重点：1）内容十分广泛。涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域。2）促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。3）把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。需注意的是，计划中各领域的投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。四、拜登基建对美国经济有何影响？1）对GDP的影响：10年里，每年基建支出约1300亿，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（马里兰大学和CBO的评估），每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美银估计，拜登基建计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」。拜登加税：怎么加？一、拜登加税基本是确定的。三大理由：1）加税是拜登竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。2）在拜登竞选网站上明确写到， 1.3万亿基建投资将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集。3）财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（拜登重建计划）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。二、加税有先例可寻。1950年代以来，美国所得税率整体呈下降趋势，减税多，加税少。主要的加税有三次，一是1968-1970年为应对越战开支而征收的「越战附加税」。二是1990年老布什为应对赤字增长而加税。三是1993年克林顿加税，这也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税，其目的也是为了削减财政赤字。三、富人税负增加，中下阶层减负；企业税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流。拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。一方面，提高富裕群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，另一方面，重新上调企业所得税率，对其他一些企业税进行调整。四、拜登加税对美国经济有何影响？就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占10年总收入的8%）。此外税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。两个关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「在我下个月第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’。」拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，目前还没有确定时间。历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，所以我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。第一，10月以后民主党可再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，民主党高层的积极表态表明其会尽可能快地推动重建计划进入国会表决或者在新财年伊始就推动重建计划再走预算和解程序。风险提示：民主党内部就重建计划产生分歧。报告目录报告正文在1.9万亿美国救济计划落地后，关于拜登重建计划（Build Back Better Recovery Plan，因其大部分措施与基建相关，国内外相关报道和报告也将之称为「拜登基建计划」）的讨论热度迅速升温。据彭博3月22日的报道，近期重建计划方案将递交给拜登，且该计划还包含了加税方案。白宫新闻秘书普萨基也在22日表示，「时间快了，所以他本周将与他的团队讨论有哪些选择，规模和范围。」根据拜登在提出救济计划时的表态，他将在第一次出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」时，向国会议员推介他的重建计划，所以重建计划或将在4月正式「亮相」。由于拜登的重建计划目前尚未公布，本篇报告就以拜登在竞选时提出的基建计划和加税计划作为蓝本来分析。一、拜登基建：怎么「建」？关于拜登基建，我们主要弄清楚四个问题即可。第一，美国目前有没有必要大兴基建？第二，有没有美国政府主导基建大投资的历史经验？如果有，从历史比较，拜登基建投资规模如何？第三，基建计划的具体领域和措施，到底如何建？第四，基建计划对美国经济的影响如何？（一）美国目前有必要大兴基建吗？美国目前的基础设施状况堪忧，非常有必要进行大规模投资。美国大部分的基础设施系统建成于1960年代，许多设施已经达到了最大使用期限，接近「报废」的关头。一、基础设施状况堪忧，综合评定等级较低。美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2017年对美国基础设施的评定等级为「D+」（等级为A-F），2021年的评定等级升至「C-」。虽然评级有所好转，但也表明美国基础设施仍「大多低于标准」，表现出较为严重的「恶化」状况。从全球比较看，近二十年来美国基础设施领域的评级也在不断下降。根据世界经济论坛的《全球竞争力报告》，2019年美国在基础设施领域的排名位居全球第13位，而2002年时则位居5位，17年里下降了8个名次。二、美国目前存在大规模基建投资缺口，如果不弥补，会对经济和社会发展造成巨大负面影响。有两个评估来源：1）美国土木工程师学会（ASCE）2021年报告认为，未来十年美国基建投资总缺口已经达到2.59万亿美元，如果不弥补，到2039年美国将损失10万亿GDP，损失2.4万亿出口。2）麦肯锡2016年的研究认为，从2017年至2030年，每年需要1500亿美元的基础设施投资，才能跟上美国经济对基础设施的需求。三、美国基建支出力度远低于世界主要经济体，并且主要依赖于州和地方政府。欧洲国家在建设和维护基础设施上的支出相当于GDP的5％，中国的基础设施支出平均约占其GDP的8％，而美国仅为2.4％[1]。此外，与多数其他工业化国家的不同之处在于，美国主要依赖地方和州政府的支出来满足其基础设施的需求。大多数欧洲国家或地区在国家层面上为大部分基础设施建设提供资金，但2017年美国公共基础设施资金中只有25％来自联邦政府，这个数字远低于1977年38％的峰值，表明联邦政府在公共基建上承担的支出责任越来越少。随着美国基建存量不断增加，州和地方政府不得不承担更多的运营和维护成本，也使得基建的新增投资额从2000年代初以来一直下降。（二）历史上联邦政府进行过基建大投资吗？上世纪以来，美国经历过四次联邦政府主导的大规模基建投资，从历史比较看，拜登基建计划是上世纪以来美国第二大规模的联邦基建投资。上世纪以来美国联邦政府主导了四轮大规模基建投资，投资力度最大的是罗斯福新政，公共工程相关支出180亿美元，占1933年GDP的31%；投资力度最小的是奥巴马ARRA法案，其中基建类支出1200亿美元，占2009年GDP的0.8%。艾森豪威尔修建州际高速公路的耗资为250亿美元，约占1956年GDP的5.6%，克林顿的信息高速公路计划总投资额4000亿，占1993年GDP的5.8%。拜登竞选网站上公布的基建类支出大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%，是上世纪以来规模第二大的投资。1、罗斯福新政大萧条后，为了刺激就业复苏，1933年罗斯福签署《国家工业复兴法》，他认为通过广泛的的公共工程计划能直接带来就业机会。通过设立联邦经济救济署、公共工程管理局（PWA）、公共事业振兴署（WPA）等机构为美国带来了逾千万的就业。到二战前夕，联邦政府工程费用和直接救济费用支出高达180亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的31%，占1941年美国GDP比重的14%。如果从广义支出看，罗斯福新政的联邦支出总额为417亿美元，占1933年美国GDP比重的73%，占1941年美国GDP比重的32%。大规模公共工程支出也取得了显著成果：公共工程方面，WPA的小型项目包括了7.8万座桥梁和高架桥、57.2万英里乡村公路；而PWA在建立的前六年里即完成了约1.14个街道和公路项目，总长达3.7万英里[2]。到二战前夕，美国一共修建了近1000座飞机场、12000多个运动场、800多座校舍与医院。就业方面，仅WPA就在1935-1943年为大约八百万人提供了工作机会。2、艾森豪威尔：州际高速公路1950年代，艾森豪威尔主张修建美国州际高速公路系统。1956年，他签署了《联邦援助公路法》，获得了250亿美元的授权，用于在十年内建造4.1万英里的州际高速公路，这笔费用将由存入联邦公路信托基金的汽油税等税收收入支付，联邦政府提供约90%的总支出，其余10%由各州支付。修建州际高速公路的耗资约占1956年美国GDP的5.6%。3、克林顿：「信息高速公路计划」1992年，美国总统候选人克林顿在竞选时提出，要建设信息高速公路。1993年克林顿上台后，正式实施「信息高速公路计划」。计划投资额为4000亿美元，为期20年，逐步将电信光缆铺设到所有家庭用户。1994年，美国政府提出建设全球信息基础设施的倡议，旨在通过卫星通讯和电信光缆连通全球信息网络，形成信息共享的竞争机制[3]。信息高速公路计划总投资额占1993年美国GDP的5.8%。4、奥巴马：ARRA财政刺激法案金融危机后，奥巴马在2009年2月签署财政刺激法案《美国复苏和再投资法案（ARRA）》，初始总规模为7870亿美元，2015年国会预算办公室预计总支出大约为8400亿美元，其中大约有1200亿用于基建项目相关支出，包括：480亿用于运输和公共交通项目，310亿用于联邦建筑现代化改造，310亿用于学校设施和科学设施现代化改造，60亿用于水利项目，50亿用于房屋气候改造项目。ARRA法案的基建类支出规模占2009年GDP比重仅为0.8%。（三）拜登基建计划的具体措施？1、基建计划的三个重点拜登竞选网站上提出的「建设现代、可持续的基础设施和公平、清洁的能源未来」计划，计划跨度为期10年，总规模为 2 万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的9.3%；如果仅看基建类支出，大约为1.3万亿美元，约占2019年GDP的6.1%。竞选网站上公布的计划有两个特点：第一，内容十分广泛。计划不仅仅局限于传统的基础设施和清洁能源投资，还包括智慧城市和宽带等新基建，汽车工业发展，建筑改造和保障性住房建设，可持续农业，制造业振兴和中小企业发展，社区平等和发展等多个领域。第二，促进就业和重建中产阶级是「重头戏」。可以说，增加就业和中产阶级重建是拜登大兴基建的一大主要目的。在拜登的设想里，计划可以大幅创造新的就业岗位，比如：基建领域的投资将创造数百万个就业机会，汽车工业领域将创造100万个就业机会，电力领域的投资将创造数百万个就业岗位，建筑和住房领域投资将创造100万个高薪岗位，农业保护领域将创造25万个工作岗位等。第三，把制造业留在美国。防止制造业外迁，与创造就业的需求是内在一致的。这一说法在计划中多次被提及，比如：确保鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂；投资电池技术但要确保电池生产在国内进行等等。此外，值得说明的是，基建计划中各个领域的具体投资额尚不明晰，只有少数项目提出了明确投资额。由于该计划简介十分「粗糙」，并没有十分细致的支出计划，只在少数项目上提出了投资额，比如：在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购（具体采购计划没有说明）；1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑；执政第一年投入500亿美元修复高速公路、公路和桥梁；投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施，提供600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入；10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目；400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金用于资助重大基建项目等等。计划简介中明确提及投资额度的，零零散散加总，仅有8000多亿美元。2、不仅是基建，计划覆盖八大领域整体来看，拜登的基建计划不仅仅是局限在「基建领域」，覆盖面非常广泛，涵盖了现代化基建、汽车工业发展、清洁电力投资、建筑改造和住房建设、清洁能源投资、可持续农业、社区平等发展和制造业振兴共八大领域（下文是简介，详情参见附录）。第一，构建现代化的基建设施。1）道路修复和建设。执政第一年投入500亿美元用于修复高速公路、道路和桥梁，对边远地区进行交通投资等。2）第二次铁路革命。大力投资高铁，完善客运和货运铁路体系，推动铁路系统电气化，减少柴油排放。3）大力发展公共交通。到2030年，在超过10万人口的城市构建高质量的公共交通系统。在10年内额外投入100亿美元支持低收入地区的交通项目。4）改进机场。为机场改善计划提供双倍资金，为主要机场改造项目提供竞争性赠款，全面实施下一代航空技术系统等。5）大力投资货运基础设施，包括内河航道、货运走廊、货运铁路、中转设施和港口。把BUILD和INFRA交通基建赠款项目赠款从每年18亿提高至35亿；每年为陆军工程兵团增加25亿资金，推动内陆水道的船闸现代化；支持港口基础设施。6）水利基础设施建设。更换老化管道，把联邦对清洁饮用水和水基础设施的投资增加一倍，监测供水系统中铅和其他污染物，追究污染企业的责任。投资水技术研发，号召私人部门创新。7）新基建项目：智能城市建设。每年用10亿美元帮助5个城市试行新的规划战略和智慧城市技术。投资宽带网络。投资200亿美元建设农村宽带基础设施， 600亿资金来扩大农村地区的宽带接入，增加宽带提供商的参与数量等。8）建立转型项目基金。设立一个400亿美元、为期10年的转型项目基金，为庞大复杂的基建项目提供援助。第二，使美国汽车业在本世纪领先全球，加快向低碳和无碳汽车过渡。1）需求方面：恢复电动汽车全额税收抵免，利用联邦采购增加清洁汽车的需求，加速300万辆政府系统汽车的升级换代。设定到2030年所有美国制造的新巴士都实现零排放的目标，将全国50万辆校车转化为零排放汽车。2）鼓励汽车制造商在国内建造或重组整车或零部件工厂。3）五年内在电池和储能技术方面投资50亿美元，同时确保电池生产在国内进行。4）建立一个由50万个公共充电网点组成的全国充电系统，每年额外提供10亿美元资金以确保充电站由经过认证的技术人员安装。5）召集美国能源和交通部协调特别示范项目，向愿意试行新型充电基础设施的市镇和县提供赠款。6）制定燃油经济性标准，减少空气污染。第三，清洁电力投资：2035年实现无碳发电。1）发展清洁电力，到2035年实现无碳发电。2）大力发展电网，推动市场改革，扩大区域电力市场。3）为公用事业和电网运营商建立能源效率和清洁电力标准（ EECES ）；4）升级输电线路以支持更大的区域电力市场，推进大规模储能示范项目。5）将加倍提高对捕获碳、永久封存和利用捕获碳的技术的研究投资和税收优惠。第四，建筑改造，提高建筑能效。1）推动学校现代化。投资1000亿美元改善公立学校建筑，升级全国各地的儿童保育和早期学习设施。2）建筑节能改造。在4年内升级400万栋商业建筑，对200万户家庭进行房屋节能改造。推动建筑行业电气化，加大对低收入房屋节能改造项目和电热泵等关键技术的投资；建造净零碳联邦建筑等。3）2035年美国建筑存量碳足迹减少一半。4）推动建设150万套公共住房，向低收入社区注入更多资金以促进经济适用房的建设和小企业的发展。第五，对清洁能源创新进行历史性投资。1）在第一个任期内增加4000亿美元的联邦采购，其中一个重点是购买电池和电动汽车等关键的清洁能源投入。2）未来4年内专注于清洁能源、清洁交通、清洁工业流程和清洁材料等战略研究领域。3）加强和建设美国关键的清洁能源供应链，解决对稀土矿物的依赖等问题，加快供应链弹性方面的创新。4）大力投资国家实验室、高性能计算能力设施以及其他关键基础设施。第六，投资于可持续农业和环境养护。1）通过民间气候组织号召和动员新一代美国人投入到保护环境和应对气候变化的工作中。2）进行前期投资，以清理以往资源开采对环境造成的破坏和影响。3）维护美国的农场和牧场。为农民向新设备和新方法过渡提供低成本资金，资助精密农业和新作物的研究开发，建立自愿碳农业市场；追求亲工人和亲家庭的农民贸易政策；加强粮食供应的安全性和恢复能力；确保中小型农场的竞争公平等。第七，社区平等和发展。1）每年提供50亿美元，扩大新市场税收抵免并使该计划永久化；2）为社区发展金融机构基金提供双倍资金，支持低收入地区的金融机构。3）设立100亿美元的城市振兴基金，在陷入困境的城市开展创造性的振兴项目。4）资助贫困地区的锚定机构（指医院、学院和大学以及政府行政机构等）。5）全面实施「10-20-30计划（在所有联邦项目中，将10%的资金分配给过去30年有20%或以上的人口生活在贫困线以下的县）」。第八，振兴全国的制造业和中小企业。1）振兴制造业。将制造业扩展伙伴项目的资金提高四倍，为小型制造商在全球竞争中提供技术支持；在每个州发展低碳制造业；利用税收抵免和补贴帮助企业升级设备和流程、投资扩建或新建工厂、部署低碳技术；为更具竞争力或低碳的制造业提供资金等。2）推动中小企业发展。把国家小企业信贷倡议计划延长到2025年，联邦拨款增加至30亿美元；向各州提供50亿美元资金，制定鼓励小企业创业的政策，比如支持从公立大学向私营部门转让技术。（四）拜登基建对美国经济的影响？基建类支出对经济的影响如何评估？可以借鉴过往美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果：1）2014年马里兰大学的一项研究表明，公共交通基础设施投资每花费1美元，就会使得GDP增长增加约3美元，在经济衰退期间产生的影响更大。2）根据2014年芝加哥大学的报告，一项830亿美元的基础设施投资计划——大约相当于国内生产总值的0.6%——将在头三年创造170万个就业机会。3）根据全球咨询公司麦肯锡的估计，美国基础设施支出每增加1个百分点的GDP，将为经济增加150万个就业机会。4）经济政策研究所估计，础设施投资的回报率很高。对数十项基础设施研究进行回顾，每支出100美元……从长期来看，将使私营部门的产出分别提高13美元（中位数）和17美元（平均值）。5）据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）对奥巴马ARRA法案的评估，基建类的产出乘数在0.4-2.2之间。可借鉴美国学界和智库对基建效果的评估结果，从整体上大概估算拜登基建计划对美国经济和就业的影响。1）对GDP的影响：拜登基建计划中，确定的基建类支出大约是1.3万亿美元，投资周期10年，平均每年的支出约为1300亿，约占2019年GDP比重的0.6%，按照产出乘数0.4-3来估计（结合马里兰大学和CBO估计的产出乘数），未来十年，每年对GDP的额外产出贡献约为520亿~3900亿美元，约为2019年名义GDP的0.2%~1.8%。2）对就业的影响：根据芝加哥大学的就业影响估计，1.3万亿的基建类支出未来十年将每年创造逾200万个工作岗位。根据麦肯锡的评估结果估计，未来十年将带动约1000万的就业。拜登团队在计划简介中的就业影响估计是带动超1000万个就业。综合来看，拜登的重建计划在未来十年或将给美国创造超千万的就业岗位。3）美国银行在一份报告中估计，拜登的2万亿美元的基础设施计划在短期内可能会带来2％至9％的GDP增长，从长期来看会使GDP「显著增长」，并且美国GDP增长每增加1％，将带来标准普尔500公司收益的3％到4％左右的增长[4]。二、拜登加税：怎么加？同样的，我们从四个问题来理解拜登加税。第一，拜登是不是确定要加税，加税的目的是什么？第二，加税在美国历史上有先例吗？第三，拜登打算怎么加税？第四，加税对美国经济有何影响？（一）拜登确定要加税？目的何在？拜登是否要加税？加税应该是肯定的。第一，拜登在竞选时曾明确提出加税计划，这是其竞选口号之一，大概率将履行。第二，在拜登的竞选网站上写到，基础设施领域多达1.3万亿美元的投资，将全部通过「确保超级富豪和企业支付他们公平的（税收）份额」来筹集资金。第三，财政部长耶伦曾表示，下一个法案（指拜登的重建计划法案）的一部分支出将由加税来筹集。拜登加税的三个目的：一是为重建计划筹集资金，二是兑现竞选承诺，三是通过税制调整以促进税收公平，通过二次分配来调节贫富差距。从税制调整中可以很明显地看出，富人和高收入阶层、企业的税负压力增大，而中低收入者的税收抵免则明显扩大。（二）加税有先例可寻吗？在1950年以前，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率均呈逐渐上升趋势，这一时期，加税的主要原因是为战争筹资，在一战和二战期间，个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率大幅上升。从1950年代以来，美国个人所得税和企业所得税最高边际税率整体呈逐渐下降趋势，减税时期多，加税时期极少。1950年以来，主要的减税有五次： 1963年肯尼迪减税、1979年卡特减税、1980年代里根减税、2001年小布什减税、2017年特朗普减税。而1950年以来的加税，最明显的有三次。第一次是1960年代后期，加税的主要原因还是战争因素，从1968年-1970年，为了应对越南战争的开支，美国征收了「越战附加税」，1970年以后取消。第二次是1990年老布什为了应对国防和医疗等社会公共开支大幅上升带来赤字增加，在1990年通过《1990年监察预算调解法案》，将个人所得税最高边际税率从28%提高至31%。第三次是1993年克林顿加税，这一次也是1950年以来美国最大范围和规模的一次加税。为了削减财政赤字，克林顿在1993年提出增税计划，将个人所得税最高边际税率从31%提高至39.6%，将企业所得税最高边际税率从34%提高至35%。值得注意的是，2012年个人所得税最高边际税率从35%上升至39.6%并非是加税导致，而是小布什减税期限已满，税率自动回到减税前的水平。（三）拜登打算如何加税？拜登加税主要是在两个方面，一是高收入群体的工资税、所得税、资本利得税和遗产税等，二是重新上调企业所得税率，对一些企业税进行调整。从下述条款的具体细则中可以看出，拜登的加税对象非常明确，就是富有群体和企业，对社会中下阶层的税收优惠和抵免反而提高了。1、个体税制调整：富人税负增加，中下阶层减负1）对年收入超过40万美元的人征收12.4%的社会保障工资税（Social Security payroll tax），由雇主和雇员平分。在先行的税法下，年收入高于13.77万的个人不需要支付社会保障工资税。2）将应税收入超过40万美元的最高个人所得税税率从现行法律规定的37%上调至39.6%；对于年收入超过40万美元的群体，即便有分项扣除的税收优惠，其个人所得税率也不得低于28%；恢复对应税收入超过40万美元的项目扣除额的「皮斯限制」；对应税收入超过40万美元的群体，逐步取消符合资格的业务收入扣除额。3）按39.6%的普通所得税税率对100万美元以上的长期资本利得和合格股息收入征税，消除资本利得税的累进性。4）税收抵免：扩大65岁以上无子女员工的劳动所得税抵免，为个人提供可再生能源相关的税收抵免；将儿童和受扶养人税收抵免(CDCTC)从最高3000美元扩大到8000美元(多个受扶养人为16000美元)，并将最高偿还率从35%提高到50%。在2021年，将17岁及以下儿童的儿童税收抵免(CTC)从最高2000美元提高到3000美元，同时为6岁以下儿童提供600美元的额外抵免，CTC将全额退还。值得一提的是，关于CTC的措施已在1.9万亿救济计划中实施；重建首次购房者的税收抵免政策，为首次购房者提供1.5万美元的税收抵免。5）将遗产税和赠与税的税率和免税额恢复到2009年的水平。2017年特朗普税改后，将2018-2025年的遗产和赠与税的免税额从每人500万提高至1000万，税率仍然定在40%。如果回到2009年水平，免税额将从现在的1000万降至350万，税率则从40%提高至45%。6）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：通过提供可退还的税收抵免来取代传统的扣除项目，以平衡传统退休账户(如401(k)和个人退休账户)的税收优惠；取消房地产税的某些规定；扩大《平价医疗法案》的保费税收抵免；创建可退还的租户税收抵免并提供每年不超过50亿美元的抵免额度，旨在将租金和水电费保持在租户月收入的30%以下；加大对低收入者住房税收抵免的额度。2、企业税制调整：税负增加，但鼓励制造业回流1）将企业所得税税率从21%提高到28%。2）对账面利润超过1亿美元的公司征收最低税。最低税是一种替代税——企业将支付常规企业所得税或15%最低税中的更高者，仍然允许净经营亏损(NOL)和外国税收抵免。3）将美国公司海外子公司的全球无形资产低税收收入(Global Intangible Low Tax Income)税率从10.5%提高一倍至21%。提议对海外子公司的GILTI进行分国家评估，取消将低于合格企业资产投资(QBAI) 10%的GILTI视为回报豁免的条款。在2017年税改前，美国一般对其公司和居民的全球收入征税，美国公司可以申请推迟对海外子公司的活跃业务收益征税，直到收益作为股息汇回美国。在税改之后，美国豁免了美国公司海外子公司活跃业务的收益，即使这些收益被汇回国内也不会被征税(但仍对外国子公司的被动投资收入征税)。美国国会担心将跨国公司的海外收入完全豁免，可能会加剧其将利润转移到海外低税收司法管辖区的做法，因此对全球无形资产低税收收入制定了10.5%的最低税率，以阻止利润转移。GILTI是指无形资产(如专利、商标和版权)带来的收入。无形资产具有高度的可移动性，该税率试图阻止美国公司将无形资产转移到海外。4）税收抵免：建立制造业税收抵免；扩大新市场的税收抵免并使之永久化；为采用工作场所退休储蓄计划的小企业提供税收抵免；扩大与可再生能源相关的税收抵免，包括碳捕获、使用和储存的税收抵免以及住宅能效的税收抵免，并恢复能源投资税收抵免(ITC)和电动汽车税收抵免，结束对化石燃料的税收补贴。5）其他缺乏明确信息的调整项目：对那些「为了向美国市场销售产品或提供服务而将制造业和服务业工作岗位转移到国外」的企业征收10%的附加税。为恢复生产、振兴已关闭或即将关闭的设施、重组设施以促进制造业就业或扩大制造业工资规模的活动，提供优先的10%的「美国制造」税收抵免。（四）拜登加税对美国经济的影响加税对经济的影响较为复杂，主要借鉴海外智库的评估来大致了解拜登加税对美国经济的影响。就经济增长而言，税务基金会和税收政策中心均预估加税会对未来十年对经济增长造成负面影响，会使未来十年GDP下降1.62%~3.4%。就税收收入而言，税务基金会认为加税在未来十年可以筹集约2.8万亿税收收入，而税收政策中心估计加税将使未来十年联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%）。此外，税务基金会预计加税将使工资水平下降、就业岗位流失，使收入差距缩小但整体居民税后收入下降。1、税务基金会（Tax Foundation）的估计1）财政收入的影响：拜登税收计划将在未来10年筹集约2.8万亿美元。2）经济的影响：在未来十年，使GDP总共减少1.62%，GNP总共下降1.83%，使资本存量减少3.75%，使长期平均工资水平下降1.15%，损失54.2万个工作岗位。3）收入分配的影响：拜登的税收计划到2030年将导致最富有的1%纳税人的税后收入减少7.7%左右，所有纳税人的税后收入平均下降1.9%。2、税收政策中心（TaxPolicy Center）1）经济影响：使未来十年美国GDP总共下降3.4%，对GDP的影响将在2040年转正，在2040年以后的年份，正向影响将逐渐增大。2）收入影响：将使2021年至2030年的美国联邦收入减少1610亿美元（约占这10年总收入的8%），2031年至2040年减少900亿美元。到2040年，税收计划对联邦收入的影响将转正，其正效应在2040年的随后年份将逐渐增加。三、关键时间点：正式的重建计划可能会在什么时候推出？目前，拜登团队还没有公布正式的计划方案和投资细则，后续要追踪拜登的重建计划，有两个关键的时间节点值得关注：第一个关键时间点：今年4-5月。拜登在今年1月14日首次提出「美国救济计划」时曾明确说道：「下个月，在我第一次出席国会联席会议时，我将提出我的‘重建更好未来的复苏计划’[5]。」正常情况下，拜登的重建计划本应该在2月份就正式提出，但疫情才是第一要务，2月11日众议院议长佩洛西表示，「在我们通过新冠疫情纾困法案之前，我们不会做任何事情。」由于美国救济计划在国会遭遇阻力，直到3月14日才正式落地，因此拜登至今还未出席国会联席会议，重建计划也还没有正式提出。国会联席会议什么时候召开呢？这是关键。3月24日白宫发言人普萨基表示，「目前还没有确定时间…我们当然仍有兴趣承诺进行一次联合会议。我们会与他们保持联系，但我不知道具体的时间。」历史上，总统出席国会联席会议并发表「在国会联席会议上的演讲」的时间最晚不超过2月份。现在海外预期拜登将在4月正式出席国会联席会议[6]，那么届时他将向议员介绍重建计划。另据高盛预计，白宫或在5月向国会递交详细的预算方案。再根据民主党高层的表态，希望基建方案能在5月通过参众两院下属的委员会，因此我们预计，重建计划的总规模和具体的项目细节大概率将于4-5月公布。第二个关键时间点：10月。拜登的重建计划的推出实施，需要经过美国国会的同意。目前民主党掌控众议院，可以在众议院轻松通过法案。但是民主党在参议院只是略占优势，仅比共和党多1票的投票权，无法绕过参议院的「阻挠议事」（需要60票）。拜登的重建计划要想在参议院获得通过，只有两个办法。一是在保证所有民主党参议员同意的前提下，至少再争取10位共和党参议员的支持。二是再次启用预算和解程序，和1.9万亿美国救济计划走的国会流程一致，只需要51票即可通过参议院。就目前共和党参议院高层的表态来看，第一种办法的可行性非常低，参议院共和党领导麦康奈尔本周一表示：「我们听说，未来几个月可能会提出所谓的基础设施法案，实际上可能是暗藏大幅加税和其他有损就业的左翼政策的特洛伊木马。」拜登的重建计划要想落地，最大的可能是启动预算和解程序。美国财政年度是每年10月至次年9月，预算和解程序一个财年一般只能使用一次（本来收入、支出和赤字三个领域每财年各有一次启动预算和解程序的机会，但是法案一般不只涉及一个领域，基本上三个领域都会覆盖，历史经验看，预算和解程序也是一个财年最多一次），今年1.9万亿美国救济计划已经使用过2021财年的「额度」，若要再次启用预算和解程序，只能等到2022财年开始。10月份是第二个关键的时间点，第一，到10月份，民主党可以再次启用「预算和解程序」。第二，从民主党议员的表态来看，他们希望能快速通过重建计划法案，比如众议院议长佩洛西希望国会快速采取行动制定变革性的基建计划。四附录：拜登重建计划细则内容","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}