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3600秒的守候
2021-03-19

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Zhang Yidong's latest sharing: Now is not the beginning of the bear market, the main decline is over

“这次不是系统性风险。为什么不是系统性风险？这一次美债收益率超预期上行的根本原因还是美债供求关系的一个失衡，而更核心的原因是美债持有结构的一个质的变化。” “我今天在这里想传递给大家的一个重要理念，就

Zhang Yidong's latest sharing: Now is not the beginning of the bear market, the main decline is over

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3600秒的守候
·2021-03-29
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Louis5511
·2021-03-19
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":350904519,"tweetId":"350904519","gmtCreate":1616145690031,"gmtModify":1704791504935,"author":{"id":3576741308708587,"idStr":"3576741308708587","authorId":3576741308708587,"authorIdStr":"3576741308708587","name":"3600秒的守候","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a997b789b2b70bfa7e4a7a4d32a6d56","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":3,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>power</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>power</body></html>","text":"power","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/350904519","repostId":1199276124,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199276124","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人，聆听客观表达的理性声音，只做最好的原创财富资讯，洞见独立思想，回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1616145381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199276124?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-19 17:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong's latest sharing: Now is not the beginning of the bear market, the main decline is over","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199276124","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"“这次不是系统性风险。为什么不是系统性风险？这一次美债收益率超预期上行的根本原因还是美债供求关系的一个失衡，而更核心的原因是美债持有结构的一个质的变化。”\n“我今天在这里想传递给大家的一个重要理念，就","content":"\"This time it is not a systemic risk. Why not a systemic risk? The fundamental reason for the unexpected rise in U.S. bond yields this time is an imbalance between U.S. bond supply and demand, and the core reason is a qualitative change in the U.S. bond holding structure. change.\"\"An important idea I want to pass on to you here today is that Chinese investors don't have to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields.\"\"In the post-epidemic era, U.S. Treasury Bond yields have rebounded, but it is difficult to reverse. Historically, every time there is a financial crisis, U.S. bond yields have directly reached 3 or 5, let alone 3 or 5 now. It's difficult to stabilize at 2.\"\"In the medium and long term, the game between China and the United States is a protracted war. What is the more likely strategy of the United States? It is to buy time with money to enhance competitiveness. Come and suppress China's competitiveness. Use money to buy time internally to restore the competitiveness of the United States, and use rules to unite allies externally to suppress China's competitiveness.In the future, the United States will compete with us in advanced manufacturing, technology and domestic demand. These three aspects will ultimately be the three focuses of the game between China and the United States at the economic level. \"\"From a medium-to long-term perspective, now is not the beginning of systemic risk, nor is it the beginning of a bear market, but a small correction of structural bull.\"\"This adjustment may be overkill for growth stocks. After the valuation falls, some people will begin to worry that the performance will not meet expectations or that the redemption of funds will trigger an a vicious circle. In this case, many people are worried about this market adjustment. space and time.I don't think there is much room for subsequent adjustments. The main decline has ended, and there will be differentiation later. \"\"We think the adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lasts. Recently, it is mainly reflected in a group game of growth stocks, and recently it has moved from a virtuous circle to an a vicious circle. After the recent rapid adjustment, based on the long-term judgment of industry analysts on the company, we believe that the valuation of growth core assets has entered a reasonable position in the medium and long term. So foreign investors have also started to buy recently. There's not much downside from this position. \"\"Maybe in the late second quarter, the overseas negative news just mentioned is superimposed on the softening of domestic policies, and the domestic economic value begins to fall. At that time, the market will show a trend upward again, and the time node may be better. Now you can choose stocks on the left side. Don't panic too much, if you are doing the right side, you can wait a little longer.\"\"In the second quarter, whether overseas or domestically, the power of upstream'inflation 'may reach a high point, which means that it is a boon for the manufacturing industry, and the cost of the manufacturing industry can be alleviated in all aspects; at the same time, the recovery in Europe and the United States is driven by consumption, the inertia is actually stronger.\"\"For the growth sector, whether it is consumption or medicine, in the long run, the layout point on the left has actually arrived, and those unfirm elements who follow the trend have now begun to go out.\"\"China's growth targets, especially core assets such as the Internet, will recuperate in the first half of the year but there are no major systemic risks. The long-term cost performance has begun to be highlighted.\"Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Chief Global Strategy AnalystZhang Yidong,The latest wonderful views shared in a small-scale exchange on March 17th.Recently, U.S. bond yields have risen, and the domestic market has continued to pull back. In Zhang Yidong's view, domestic investors have paid too much attention to the rise in U.S. bond yields.Zhang Yidong analyzed in detail the core reasons behind the rise in U.S. bond yields, believing that the current U.S. bond is no longer the same influence as the U.S. bond 10 years ago, and Chinese investors do not need to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields. From a medium-to long-term perspective, this is a small correction of the structural long bull, and there will be differentiation later.At the same time, he also focused on the opportunities that this adjustment may bring, and which assets can now be deployed.The following is the full text of this exchange,Smart investors are authorized by General Manager Yidong to share it with everyone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7e8fd385528a06c4af634a5db7c134\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I am very happy to share with you this evening, reporting on issues regarding U.S. bond yields, inflation and style switching, as well as issues regarding the later direction of the market.Domestic investors have three pessimistic sentimentsIt's really an imagination1.Views on U.S. bond yields and inflationOverall, we feel that it is important to return to the true meaning of the value of core assets. For U.S. debt and group games, these are just clouds.After the exchange, I feel that domestic investors are paying too much attention to the rise in U.S. bond yields.Domestic investors now have three pessimistic sentiments:The first sentiment is that the United States is coming to an end, like the expectation of subprime mortgage in 2008, and that the rise in the yield of long-term U.S. bonds will trigger the debt risk of the United States, which will lead to the rise in the global risk-free rate of return. Eventually, the double killing of U.S. bonds and stocks will trigger a global crisis, and China will not get better;The second sentiment, on the contrary, is that the United States is very powerful, that the economic recovery of the United States is very strong, that the United States is going to engage in an over-limit financial war, that the US dollar may be reversed, and that the world's leeks will be cut off, just like the Southeast Asian financial crisis. This sentiment is overestimating the United States and capitulationism;The third sentiment is that regarding the rise in U.S. bond yields-I don't know how serious it is, so I should lie down first to guard against overseas risks.These three emotions really belong to the brain hole.This time U.S. bond yields are rising, we need to have an in-depth chat, and we need to know why.From mid-February to now, not all the global markets are falling. The stock markets in the euro zone such as France and Germany are actually hitting record highs, and the Dow Jones is also constantly hitting record highs. Nasdaq has indeed adjusted, but it is still very restrained. On the contrary, the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong have been adjusted from mid-February to now.Rising U.S. bond yields are not a systemic riskThe more core reason is the qualitative change in the structure of U.S. bond holdingsIt is necessary for us to sort out the core reasons for the rise in U.S. bond yields at this time, so as to predict whether this is a systemic risk.Since the beginning of February, the yield of U.S. bonds has climbed rapidly from 1.15% to the current 1.6%. The rise so fast has indeed exceeded expectations. Are there fundamental factors behind the rapid rise?For example, out-of-control inflation and overheating of the economy will bring systemic risks if these factors are the case.However, if the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury can control it, it is a technical risk.Obviously we don't think it's a systemic risk this time. Why not systemic risk?The fundamental reason for the unexpected rise in U.S. bond yields this time is an imbalance in the supply and demand relationship of U.S. bonds, and the core reason is a qualitative change in the holding structure of U.S. bonds.In 2008, the proportion of U.S. debt held by foreign investors outside the United States was 54%, then 47% in 2015, and then it dropped rapidly, now it is 34%.On the one hand, China's exchange rate has been reformed after 2015, while the oil-producing countries in the Middle East have no money. The scale of U.S. Treasury Bond held by Japan has declined significantly after 2015. Japan has purchased U.S. debt in a blowout since 1985 (the longest term is 30 years) has entered the repayment period.The demand for foreign investors to hold U.S. debt has weakened significantly.On the other hand, after the COVID-19 epidemic, the issuance of U.S. bonds has increased significantly compared with the past 20 years, and it has more than doubled in 2020 compared with 2009. Therefore, in this case, US Treasury yields will rise more than expected in the short term.It can be seen that the auction multiple of the 7-year U.S. bond auction some time ago was a low of almost 20 years, and investors' interest was weak. This situation promoted a periodic imbalance in the supply and demand relationship, which in turn pushed the U.S. long-term bond interest rate to exceed expectations. upward.The current U.S. debt does not have the same influence as the U.S. debt 10 years agoThe structure of U.S. bond investors has changed from quantitative to qualitative changes, and the proportion of foreign investors has shown a downward trend. This impact may be far-reaching.First of all, the mystery of Greenspan in the past is no longer a mystery. The long-term interest rate of U.S. debt reflects the normal rhythm of domestic fiscal policy, and its role as an anchor for global asset pricing is weakening.From 1969 to 2015, foreign investors helped the Federal Reserve lower long-term bond interest rates, even causing a disconnect between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates in the United States. This is the so-called Greenspan mystery.Greenspan wants to go to the short-term rate hike, but he can't affect the long-term interest rate at all.From time to time, the current U.S. debt is no longer the same influence as the U.S. debt 10 years ago.The current changes in the investor structure of the U.S. bond market have made U.S. bond yields more sensitive to short-term supply.The tight balance between short-term supply and demand of U.S. debt is the main reason for the recent unexpected rise in long-term interest rates of U.S. debt.Yellen can slow down the issuance of bonds, or the Fed can purchase bonds more vigorously. This is normal, not to mention tools such as OT and YCC. So this is not a systemic risk or a trend risk。The U.S. inflation expectations and the U.S. economy that some domestic investors are worried about cannot explain the rise in U.S. bond yields, and are only secondary factors at best.Because the U.S. economy has only just recovered, far from overheating; In addition, inflation expectations After February 18, in fact, the inflation expectations implied by TIPS were stable or even slightly declined.We have reviewed the history of U.S. bond yields as the anchor of global asset pricing. Whether it was petrodollars in the 1970s or Japan's increase in holdings in the 1980s, or most of the foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets after the Southeast Asian financial crisis in the 1990s were placed in U.S. debt, because U.S. debt has low transaction costs, high liquidity and high security.Chinese investors don't need to worry too much about U.S. bond yield volatilityNow many investors take it for granted that U.S. bond yields are the anchor for the pricing of major global asset allocations, and once they move, the ground will shake.However, I think this anchor is actually weakening.One node of weakening was the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. After 2008, the proportion of U.S. debt held by overseas investors peaked and fell. Now the U.S. Treasury Bond market has undergone qualitative changes, and the proportion of U.S. debt held by overseas investors has returned to 2002 levels.An important idea I want to convey to you here today is that Chinese investors don't have to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields.The current U.S. debt is the new U.S. debt after the United States implemented MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). It better reflects the U.S. fiscal situation and returns to its origin-textbooks say that Treasury Bond's market serves changes in domestic fiscal policy.The reason why the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt can be used as an anchor for international asset allocation before is that various sovereign countries and major investment institutions hold U.S. debt to a high degree, which affects all aspects of financial operations. But now, the U.S. debt market The main buyer is the Federal Reserve.Last year, the U.S. government issued a net $4.68 trillion in Treasury Bond, of which more than 52% was bought by the Federal Reserve.Slowly, the attribute of U.S. debt began to shift from the attribute of an anchor of international allocation to the attribute of serving the internal finance and finance of major countries.Post-pandemic eraTreasury Bond yields in the United States have rebounded, but are difficult to reverseTo extend a little more, we say that in a new era of MMT theory, investors' knowledge system should be updated to get rid of the framework of 1980s and 1990s;That framework tells us to pay attention to fiscal discipline and the debt ceiling. Maybe you still remember the Maastricht Treaty in Europe.Under the guidance of MMT theory, hard currency countries have broken through the debt ceiling, and the system of debt expansion-economic growth-exchange rate related effects of hard currency countries has been reconstructed and logically self-consistent.For example, in Europe after the European debt crisis, the debt ratio tended to rise; The debt of the United States has been going up all the way, and now it is 303% of the total debt ratio, much higher than China's 270%.In countries with hard currencies, as long as the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar does not collapse, the implementation period of MMT's new monetary theory will exceed expectations.Maybe everyone feels very incomprehensible. The virtual economy in the United States is too prosperous, but the real economy is not very good. Why continuous borrowing didn't lead to the Minsky moment?Why is there no debt crisis in the United States?If this is an emerging market and a soft currency country, there is no doubt that the debt is already very high, and then when bonds are issued and stimulated, it is often inflation internally, devaluation externally, capital flight, and eventually lead to debt crisis.But now, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has shown us all the cards. What she means is: As long as fiscal stimulus can promote the improvement of GDP, this can be sustained.Government debt can be turned into perpetual debt, and there is no need to think about when it will be repaid.So in essence, in the Internet age where populism prevails, compared with the various reforms and social changes we are doing, Europe and the United States are more willing to spend money on time and solve it through technological innovation and a period of development.Therefore, we believe that in the post-epidemic era, U.S. Treasury Bond yields have rebounded, but it is difficult to reverse.Historically, every time there was a financial crisis, the yield of U.S. bonds went directly to 3 or 5. Now, let alone 3 or 5, it is difficult to stabilize at 2.I do not rule out that in May this year, it is possible that the core PCE of U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations due to the base effect and a new round of fiscal stimulus, causing the U.S. bond market to panic, and the U.S. bond yield to rush to 2. This possibility;However, it is difficult to sustain, so we say that the rebound in U.S. bond yields is difficult to reverse.The current new stagflation is different from stagflation in the 1970sNow the normal state is a new type of stagflation, which is different from stagflation in the 1970s.Everyone can understand \"stagnation\", but \"inflation\" is different, because in stagflation in the 1970s, it was the era of baby boomers. There was no problem with demand, but there was a problem with supply. There were two oil crises in 1973 and 1978.What is the problem with stagflation now? Now there are problems with demand, the aging population, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, etc., which suppress effective demand;The current \"inflation\" is more reflected in the asset bubble. For example, the houses in the core areas are still maintaining and increasing their value, and the core assets in various fields we are talking about-that is, the ones with the most core competitiveness and long-term growth momentum in China, whether it is cyclical value stocks with steady growth, or consumer medical technology with growth exceeding expectations, etc., these high-quality assets are scarce in the world.Europe and the United States, especially the United States, where MMT is implemented, the wheel of economic recovery is still turning, but it is difficult to bring the United States into a new round of comprehensive prosperity;Its social problems are deep-seated \"stagnation\". Racial conflicts, widening gap between the rich and the poor and other problems will restrain effective demand. In addition, the United States can't always rely on helicopter money to subsidize lazy people, because it is not in line with the Protestant spirit of the United States.In this context, the current inflation is not a problem, and the rise in U.S. long-term bond interest rates is not a big problem.America's strategy is to buy time with moneyTo enhance competitivenessSome A-share investors worry that \"the United States is very powerful, the United States is going to harvest us, and the United States is going to engage in a financial war\".I advise you not to overestimate the United States,The game between great powers is a protracted war,At present, the United States doesn't have enough will and confidence to provoke the financial crisis, because its current state is actually to buy time with money and slowly endure us with rules.The current domestic political situation in the United States can actually be learned from the United States in the early 1970s. At that time, it lost the Vietnam War. This time, it failed to fight the epidemic. The domestic politics in the United States is very torn and turbulent;In addition, the external situation at that time was that the Soviet Union and Japan respectively had strong competitive pressure on the United States in terms of politics and economy. This time, China actually had greater pressure on the American economy than Japan in the 1970s, and the United States was also fabricating the \"China threat theory\" in politics, diplomacy and military affairs.Therefore, at this time, I don't think the United States actually has enough will and confidence to provoke the financial crisis. If the United States had confidence, it wouldn't have unplugged the network cable some time ago.In the medium and long term, the game between China and the United States is a protracted war. What is the more likely strategy of the United States?It is to use money to buy time to enhance competitiveness. Come and go to suppress China's competitiveness. Use money to buy time internally to restore the competitiveness of the United States, and use rules to unite allies externally to suppress China's competitiveness.In the future, the United States will compete with us in advanced manufacturing, technology and domestic demand. These three aspects will ultimately be the three focuses of the game between China and the United States at the economic level.From here, why are we actively promoting carbon neutrality?Carbon neutrality is definitely not a simple short-term hype.As a result, if steel rises, it will be carbon neutral, and if clean energy and new energy vehicles fall, it will not be carbon neutral. This is just hype.Correctly understand carbon neutrality from the perspective of the game between major powers,On the one hand, we take precautions in advance, knowing that the United States will restrict us in terms of environmental protection, clean energy, sustainable development, etc., so we should take the initiative and adjust ourselves faster;Moreover, by implementing the carbon neutrality strategy, we can establish a broader alliance of interests with Europe, which is of far-reaching significance.To sum up, the rise in long-term bond interest rates in the United States is unsustainable. It is more of a technical issue and a phased issue. It is necessary to desensitize the US Treasury yields and not be too sensitive.Because the current influence of U.S. debt is different from that of the past 30 years. This time is not a precursor to the crisis. 2021 is definitely not 2008 or 2018. Now everyone's anxiety about this is a bit extreme.Now it's a small correction of the structural bullThe catalyst is that the recovery of the United States drives the style switch of global stock marketsTwo,Opinions on style switchingFrom a medium-to long-term perspective, now is not the beginning of systemic risk, nor the beginning of a bear market, but a small correction of structural bull.We look forward to the market situation. On the one hand, the short-term group game has experienced great joys, sorrows, ups and downs. Now the mood is still unstable, and it takes time to repair confidence.But on the other hand, for core assets, only based on fundamental logic can we achieve stability and far-reaching progress. Really good companies are not afraid of falling or falling. This is what I told you in early 2016. When the market fluctuates, it is actually a good time to choose stocks.Regarding the market outlook, there are several issues of market concern:The first question is the definition of adjustment-this adjustment is not the beginning of a systemic crisis, but actually a phased rest. The catalyst for the rest is that the recovery of the United States drives the style switch of the global stock market.U.S. investors think that the rise in U.S. bond yields is a normal companion of recovery. Americans think this is normal. Recently, the U.S. Dow Jones index has significantly outperformed the Nasdaq index. From the perspective of industry attributes, energy, finance, and industrial equipment have outperformed Information technology, but the dynamic P/E in the field of information technology has also declined relatively rapidly.In the next few months, the European and American economies should enter a stronger recovery stage, because the popularization of vaccines and a new round of stimulus of US $1.9 trillion will bring about a retaliatory rebound in consumption, coupled with a low base, so the second quarter of the United States Whether it is economic recovery data or inflation data, it will be relatively strong.Therefore, style switching in 2021 is an inevitable choice for value investing.This Correction Could Overkill for Growth StocksWe believeIn fact, U.S. stocks are already leading the return of global value, that is, the rebalancing of style, the reconsideration of cost performance and the reconstruction of valuation system.In fact, the relative gains of cyclical value of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the past month or so are obvious. For example, since the beginning of the year, the top rankings of the Hang Seng Index are three barrels of oil, finance and three major operators, all of which belong to cyclical value and the like.This correction may be overkill for growth stocks;After the valuation is killed, some people will begin to worry that the performance will not meet expectations or the redemption of funds will trigger an a vicious circle. In this case, many people are worried about the space and time of this market adjustment.I don't think there is much room for follow-up adjustment. The main decline has ended, and there will be differentiation later.In our report \"Newborn calf meets tiger, changing style after cold spring\" written in February, we proposed that the market should have entered a rebound stage in mid-March.In fact, from March 12 to now, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have basically fluctuated upward, although the intensity is not strong. It is not ruled out that there will be another twist and turn in the world in May, and we judge that there is not much room for a decline at that time;Both A-shares and Hong Kong stock indexes are not expensive at all, and even very cheap compared with overseas markets.At that time, there was little room for A-shares below 3,400 points and Hong Kong stocks below 28,400 points.Why the \"late spring cold\" in mid-March may come to an end or even endThe rise in U.S. bond yields may still have some inertia in the second quarterFrom the perspective of time, there may still be two small risks that have not been completely released, which may cause some interference in the market.One risk is that the overall upward trend of U.S. bond yields may still have a certain inertia in the second quarter;Although we have also seen that the upward slope of U.S. bond yields has slowed down recently, in fact, the slowdown in the slope tells everyone that this is not a systemic risk. We can downplay the upward factors of U.S. bond yields and start to research and select stocks around fundamentals.Why do we say that the \"cold spring\" in mid-March may come to an end or even end?This is a historical law. Every time the U.S. bond volatility index rises to around one standard deviation, it will enter shock convergence most of the time, which means that the slope of the second derivative has begun to slow down.In April and May, it is very likely that the yield of U.S. bonds will surge in the short term, but this is the end of the force and will peak within the year.A-share investors are worried that the $1.9 trillion fiscal rescue plan will normally increase the debt pressure of the federal government, but in fact there are still about 1.4 trillion yuan in the current total account deposits (TGA) of the U.S. Treasury Department.According to the latest statement from the U.S. Treasury Department, subsequent post-epidemic stimulus will give priority to the use of TGA balances rather than newly issued debt. The U.S. Treasury Department expects that the funding gap and financing plans will drop significantly in the first half of 2021. This is a bad news.A-share investors are overly worried about inflationAnother bad news,That is, whether the American-style recovery will trigger the out-of-control and soaring commodity CPI and PPI.Looking at it now, both foreign investors and the Federal Reserve regard the recovery of the United States as a normal expectation, but many A-share investors seem to be pessimistic. What are they worried about?Worried that if the U.S. economy recovers strongly, global inflation may accelerate, and China will face imported inflation, which will trigger further policy tightening. This fear of inflation is too anxious.When excessive concerns about rising inflation can be falsified, we have to wait until the late second quarter of this year, that is, to look at the inflation data in April in early May, and to look at the inflation data in May in early June.If the inflation data for April is released in early May, then the market that should react will also react. If it does not react, it will be considered an early reaction. When the bad news is exhausted, it will be numb.It is not ruled out that the core PCE of the United States will rise to more than 3% in April. The core inflation of the United States has not risen to more than 3% in the past 10 years. It exceeded expectations. First, the base was very low due to the lock down policy of the United States from April to May last year.The second reason is that the implementation of the 1.9 trillion financial rescue plan in late March coupled with the rapid popularization of vaccines, and April is the big day of Easter, so the retaliatory rebound in consumption is still relatively obvious.April's inflation data is an outlier, but the capital market tends to extrapolate linearly, so there may be some disturbances at that time. Even if there are some disturbances, it can actually be regarded as exhausting the bad news, which is precisely a golden pit.So I think that even if inflation exceeds expectations in the later period, the Fed has enough tools and power to lower long-term bond interest rates. After all, there are many weapons in the Fed's arsenal, and there are still means such as YCC that have not been implemented.From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, when to take action, it still depends on the real interest rate;Although the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen to 1.6%, the entire 10-year real interest rate is still-0.6%. Except for the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond real interest rate, which has turned positive, everything else has not yet turned positive.The adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lastsNow you can choose stocks and do the left side, don't panic too muchThree,Outlook on the market and timing of correctionThe third thing to report and communicate with you is the outlook of the market and the time of adjustment.We think the adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lasts.Recently, it is mainly reflected in a group game of growth stocks, and recently it has moved from a virtuous circle to an a vicious circle.After the recent rapid adjustment, based on the long-term judgment of industry analysts on the company, we believe that the valuation of growth-oriented core assets has entered a reasonable position in the medium and long term. So foreign investors have also started to buy recently. There is not much downside in this position.Concerns about whether the negative impact of the group game will worsen will still suppress market risk appetite.At present, fund managers have reported that redemptions are not obvious, and the mentality of fund investors is still relatively stable, which is not the same as the stampede of killing more and killing more in 2015. However, it may take time to digest later.Now adjusting to this position, everyone is confident in the long run, but the static TTM valuation is not particularly attractive;Perhaps in the late second quarter, the negative overseas news just mentioned is superimposed on the softening of domestic policies, and the domestic economic value begins to fall. At that time, the market will show a trend upward again, and the time node may be better.Now you can choose stocks on the left side, so don't panic too much. If you choose stocks on the right side, you can wait a little longer.Generally speaking, the group game is actually not an objective result, but forms self-reinforcement and self-circulation around the requirements of the fund's relative income ranking.It used to be chasing the rise, but recently it has been selling the fall. This is subjective speculation.Therefore, every time the market for group assets ended in the past, it was not due to external shocks. External shocks only triggered major quarterly adjustments at most.The key to the real end is whether the medium-and long-term fundamental trends of related assets have reversed beyond expectations. The key to whether these assets can start again in the future lies in performance.What we should do now is not to worry about whether to participate in the short-term rebound, but to use the long to fight the short. First, we should conduct research to confirm these companies that we have previously held heavily and ensure their fundamentals.If you can't fall and find out that you are a liar, that's it. For example, in 2015, LeTV and the like were either delisted, or the fundamental logic was falsified.This time it is more like those core U.S. assets in the past decade or so. These assets will also adjust when they fall. For example, Amazon and Google also fell sharply in February 2018. But after these companies fall, it can only make their price/performance ratio better, rather than falsifying the logic of fundamentals.Now, instead of worrying about the macro trend, it is better to do stock selection, because the macro trend has been reflected in the previous adjustment.We are concerned that since February 18th, northbound funds have generally been a net inflow, especially since March, the inflow is actually quite obvious;It just means that its style is more balanced. From the previous partial consumption to the present performance is king, some banks, chemicals, even steel and real estate have it.Of course, some people wonder if this is hot money behavior. We are in contact with customers in Europe and America or Singapore. These investors who are farther away from China actually have confidence in China, because the price/performance ratio is better, and good assets are scarce all over the world.The subsequent style will shift to profit-drivenFour,Investment StrategyFinally, my investment strategy suggestions for everyone.I think the label style conversion has come to an end, and the subsequent style will turn to profit-driven.In the next stage, a black cat and a white cat will be a good cat if they catch a mouse. The industry may not be distinct. It is not a game in which steel rises and new energy falls.The most comfortable stage of the sector rebound of cyclical stocks has passed, and the opportunity for valuation repair has come to an end.Later, you need to look for α in β.This time, China's style switching will not be as strong as that of the United States.Recently, the energy and financial sectors in the United States have generally risen due to the expansion of demand in the United States.China's recovery this time is different from last year. The growth rate of investment in infrastructure or real estate is slowing down at the margin, unlike the 4 trillion after 2008, or like joining the WTO and urbanization and industrialization in the 2000s, when cyclical stocks rose. It's all because of the explosion of demand.Now the first step in style switching is almost done。China's economic growth rate has gradually declined in the next few quarters, so we cannot expect commodities such as copper or crude oil to rise much.My judgment is that copper prices and even oil prices have reached a high area, because although Europe and the United States are recovering, this recovery is more consumption-driven than infrastructure-driven;At the same time, China should take the opportunity to resolve the existing debt risk and reduce the government leverage ratio, which is relatively negative for the demand for infrastructure and commodities. Therefore, in terms of bulk raw materials, the situation in China, Europe and the United States may have a trade-off hedge.Therefore, the upstream bulk raw materials may have entered high shocks and begun to differentiate.Why haven't cyclical stocks plummeted across the board immediately? Previous experience is that stocks peak before commodity prices peak?This time it is because of carbon neutrality. Bulk cyclical products benefiting from carbon neutrality can continue to rise. This is the logic of supply-side reform.The second quarter is a boon for the manufacturing industryThe left layout point of the growth sector has arrivedFor the midstream manufacturing industry, opportunities are beginning to slowly and clearly establish:In the second quarter, whether overseas or domestically, the upstream \"inflation\" power may reach a high point, which means that it is a boon for the manufacturing industry, the cost of manufacturing industry can be alleviated in all aspects; At the same time, because the recovery in Europe and the United States is driven by consumption, the inertia is actually stronger.Therefore, for this kind of manufacturing leader that can get overseas orders and have global pricing power, it is essentially α. For example, whether it is nowWanhua is to chemical industry, or Sany is to machinery.In fact, it is a relatively independent existence. It is not completely subject to the fluctuations of the cyclical industry, but has begun to emerge as a cross-cycle attribute.In the next stage of cyclical industries, we must pay attention to the impact of carbon neutrality. In particular, some manufacturing leaders benefit from carbon neutrality on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can also share the benefits brought by the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. Therefore, in the next stage, we can start laying out manufacturing. A high-quality company in the industry.For the growth sector, whether it is consumption or medicine, in the long run, the layout point on the left has actually arrived, and those unfirm elements who follow the trend have now begun to go out.The so-called left layout, because the early group sector may fall deeply and rebound, but whether it can be sustained still depends on profitability. If the profitability elasticity is not strong but it is only a stock with strong long-term stability, then the current dynamic P/E and static P/E can't Let everyone buy the bottom without any doubts.From a short-term perspective, the status of these sectors is a bit awkward, and some people will flee as soon as they rebound. Therefore, this type of asset will follow up the process of recuperation, going up and down, and consolidating the box.We believe that,A better time for growth core assets may be in the mid-to-late second quarter.The long-term cost performance of the core asset of the Internet has begun to become prominentCorresponding to Hong Kong stocks，First of all, financial or three major operators these value stocks, now as a defensive counterattack, I think the target that does not seek huge profits can still be taken, and it can be regarded as a better convertible bond.Secondly, cyclical stocks will differentiate, and the more they can make α, the better.The benefits brought by inflation are actually implied in the stock price. When inflation really peaks, the stock price may already start to fall, because the stock market will be more sensitive than the real economy.We judge that commodity prices have entered the high point area of the year, even if they have not yet reached the big top,But the strongest stage of commodity upside may have passed;Now that commodities have entered a period of high volatility and building a top area, under this circumstance, the impact of demand on cyclical products is weakening. At this time, there is an opportunity for version 2.0 of carbon neutrality around supply-side reform.Third, China's growth targets, especially core assets such as the Internet, will recuperate in the first half of the year but there are no major systemic risks. The long-term cost performance has begun to highlight。Combine this type of asset with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>To benchmark, our Internet leader has stronger growth and stronger profit elasticity, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The valuation is actually very attractive.The market's growth-oriented core assets are more of a slow relief of emotions. At least there are no systemic risks. Tencent and Alibaba can stabilize, and there is no big problem for Meituan to fluctuate up and down. The market has different views on Xiaomi. There are so-called problems with military-related enterprises, but after falling by 25% since the beginning of the year, it has begun to be a bit negative.That's why these give me the confidence to say that there is no room for Hong Kong stocks below 28,400 points. After the growth leader of Hong Kong stocks stabilizes, other growth stocks can pick up, such as property, education, auto parts, consumption and medicine sectors. Now you can look for α.sum upThree sentences to briefly summarize:(1) ThisNot a systemic risk, not the beginning of a bear market, but a correction of a structural bull。(2)There is not much room for subsequent adjustments.The market has rebounded in the short term, but the sentiment is still affected by the negative impact of the group game. Therefore, the adjustment time may last until the middle and late second quarter, which is a period of right-hand layout.(3) Style switching cannot be blindly, and do not choose side stations by labeling according to industry attributes. Now we have entered the era of stock selection with the left layout.The relative returns of growth stocks (consumer technology pharmaceuticals) and cyclical value stocks have converged rapidly in the past two months, and now both sides have entered the stage of individual stock selection.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zhang Yidong's latest sharing: Now is not the beginning of the bear market, the main decline is over</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZhang Yidong's latest sharing: Now is not the beginning of the bear market, the main decline is over\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n聪明投资者 \n2021-03-19 17:16\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n\"This time it is not a systemic risk. Why not a systemic risk? The fundamental reason for the unexpected rise in U.S. bond yields this time is an imbalance between U.S. bond supply and demand, and the core reason is a qualitative change in the U.S. bond holding structure. change.\"\"An important idea I want to pass on to you here today is that Chinese investors don't have to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields.\"\"In the post-epidemic era, U.S. Treasury Bond yields have rebounded, but it is difficult to reverse. Historically, every time there is a financial crisis, U.S. bond yields have directly reached 3 or 5, let alone 3 or 5 now. It's difficult to stabilize at 2.\"\"In the medium and long term, the game between China and the United States is a protracted war. What is the more likely strategy of the United States? It is to buy time with money to enhance competitiveness. Come and suppress China's competitiveness. Use money to buy time internally to restore the competitiveness of the United States, and use rules to unite allies externally to suppress China's competitiveness.In the future, the United States will compete with us in advanced manufacturing, technology and domestic demand. These three aspects will ultimately be the three focuses of the game between China and the United States at the economic level. \"\"From a medium-to long-term perspective, now is not the beginning of systemic risk, nor is it the beginning of a bear market, but a small correction of structural bull.\"\"This adjustment may be overkill for growth stocks. After the valuation falls, some people will begin to worry that the performance will not meet expectations or that the redemption of funds will trigger an a vicious circle. In this case, many people are worried about this market adjustment. space and time.I don't think there is much room for subsequent adjustments. The main decline has ended, and there will be differentiation later. \"\"We think the adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lasts. Recently, it is mainly reflected in a group game of growth stocks, and recently it has moved from a virtuous circle to an a vicious circle. After the recent rapid adjustment, based on the long-term judgment of industry analysts on the company, we believe that the valuation of growth core assets has entered a reasonable position in the medium and long term. So foreign investors have also started to buy recently. There's not much downside from this position. \"\"Maybe in the late second quarter, the overseas negative news just mentioned is superimposed on the softening of domestic policies, and the domestic economic value begins to fall. At that time, the market will show a trend upward again, and the time node may be better. Now you can choose stocks on the left side. Don't panic too much, if you are doing the right side, you can wait a little longer.\"\"In the second quarter, whether overseas or domestically, the power of upstream'inflation 'may reach a high point, which means that it is a boon for the manufacturing industry, and the cost of the manufacturing industry can be alleviated in all aspects; at the same time, the recovery in Europe and the United States is driven by consumption, the inertia is actually stronger.\"\"For the growth sector, whether it is consumption or medicine, in the long run, the layout point on the left has actually arrived, and those unfirm elements who follow the trend have now begun to go out.\"\"China's growth targets, especially core assets such as the Internet, will recuperate in the first half of the year but there are no major systemic risks. The long-term cost performance has begun to be highlighted.\"Above, is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Chief Global Strategy AnalystZhang Yidong,The latest wonderful views shared in a small-scale exchange on March 17th.Recently, U.S. bond yields have risen, and the domestic market has continued to pull back. In Zhang Yidong's view, domestic investors have paid too much attention to the rise in U.S. bond yields.Zhang Yidong analyzed in detail the core reasons behind the rise in U.S. bond yields, believing that the current U.S. bond is no longer the same influence as the U.S. bond 10 years ago, and Chinese investors do not need to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields. From a medium-to long-term perspective, this is a small correction of the structural long bull, and there will be differentiation later.At the same time, he also focused on the opportunities that this adjustment may bring, and which assets can now be deployed.The following is the full text of this exchange,Smart investors are authorized by General Manager Yidong to share it with everyone.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7e8fd385528a06c4af634a5db7c134\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I am very happy to share with you this evening, reporting on issues regarding U.S. bond yields, inflation and style switching, as well as issues regarding the later direction of the market.Domestic investors have three pessimistic sentimentsIt's really an imagination1.Views on U.S. bond yields and inflationOverall, we feel that it is important to return to the true meaning of the value of core assets. For U.S. debt and group games, these are just clouds.After the exchange, I feel that domestic investors are paying too much attention to the rise in U.S. bond yields.Domestic investors now have three pessimistic sentiments:The first sentiment is that the United States is coming to an end, like the expectation of subprime mortgage in 2008, and that the rise in the yield of long-term U.S. bonds will trigger the debt risk of the United States, which will lead to the rise in the global risk-free rate of return. Eventually, the double killing of U.S. bonds and stocks will trigger a global crisis, and China will not get better;The second sentiment, on the contrary, is that the United States is very powerful, that the economic recovery of the United States is very strong, that the United States is going to engage in an over-limit financial war, that the US dollar may be reversed, and that the world's leeks will be cut off, just like the Southeast Asian financial crisis. This sentiment is overestimating the United States and capitulationism;The third sentiment is that regarding the rise in U.S. bond yields-I don't know how serious it is, so I should lie down first to guard against overseas risks.These three emotions really belong to the brain hole.This time U.S. bond yields are rising, we need to have an in-depth chat, and we need to know why.From mid-February to now, not all the global markets are falling. The stock markets in the euro zone such as France and Germany are actually hitting record highs, and the Dow Jones is also constantly hitting record highs. Nasdaq has indeed adjusted, but it is still very restrained. On the contrary, the stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong have been adjusted from mid-February to now.Rising U.S. bond yields are not a systemic riskThe more core reason is the qualitative change in the structure of U.S. bond holdingsIt is necessary for us to sort out the core reasons for the rise in U.S. bond yields at this time, so as to predict whether this is a systemic risk.Since the beginning of February, the yield of U.S. bonds has climbed rapidly from 1.15% to the current 1.6%. The rise so fast has indeed exceeded expectations. Are there fundamental factors behind the rapid rise?For example, out-of-control inflation and overheating of the economy will bring systemic risks if these factors are the case.However, if the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury can control it, it is a technical risk.Obviously we don't think it's a systemic risk this time. Why not systemic risk?The fundamental reason for the unexpected rise in U.S. bond yields this time is an imbalance in the supply and demand relationship of U.S. bonds, and the core reason is a qualitative change in the holding structure of U.S. bonds.In 2008, the proportion of U.S. debt held by foreign investors outside the United States was 54%, then 47% in 2015, and then it dropped rapidly, now it is 34%.On the one hand, China's exchange rate has been reformed after 2015, while the oil-producing countries in the Middle East have no money. The scale of U.S. Treasury Bond held by Japan has declined significantly after 2015. Japan has purchased U.S. debt in a blowout since 1985 (the longest term is 30 years) has entered the repayment period.The demand for foreign investors to hold U.S. debt has weakened significantly.On the other hand, after the COVID-19 epidemic, the issuance of U.S. bonds has increased significantly compared with the past 20 years, and it has more than doubled in 2020 compared with 2009. Therefore, in this case, US Treasury yields will rise more than expected in the short term.It can be seen that the auction multiple of the 7-year U.S. bond auction some time ago was a low of almost 20 years, and investors' interest was weak. This situation promoted a periodic imbalance in the supply and demand relationship, which in turn pushed the U.S. long-term bond interest rate to exceed expectations. upward.The current U.S. debt does not have the same influence as the U.S. debt 10 years agoThe structure of U.S. bond investors has changed from quantitative to qualitative changes, and the proportion of foreign investors has shown a downward trend. This impact may be far-reaching.First of all, the mystery of Greenspan in the past is no longer a mystery. The long-term interest rate of U.S. debt reflects the normal rhythm of domestic fiscal policy, and its role as an anchor for global asset pricing is weakening.From 1969 to 2015, foreign investors helped the Federal Reserve lower long-term bond interest rates, even causing a disconnect between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates in the United States. This is the so-called Greenspan mystery.Greenspan wants to go to the short-term rate hike, but he can't affect the long-term interest rate at all.From time to time, the current U.S. debt is no longer the same influence as the U.S. debt 10 years ago.The current changes in the investor structure of the U.S. bond market have made U.S. bond yields more sensitive to short-term supply.The tight balance between short-term supply and demand of U.S. debt is the main reason for the recent unexpected rise in long-term interest rates of U.S. debt.Yellen can slow down the issuance of bonds, or the Fed can purchase bonds more vigorously. This is normal, not to mention tools such as OT and YCC. So this is not a systemic risk or a trend risk。The U.S. inflation expectations and the U.S. economy that some domestic investors are worried about cannot explain the rise in U.S. bond yields, and are only secondary factors at best.Because the U.S. economy has only just recovered, far from overheating; In addition, inflation expectations After February 18, in fact, the inflation expectations implied by TIPS were stable or even slightly declined.We have reviewed the history of U.S. bond yields as the anchor of global asset pricing. Whether it was petrodollars in the 1970s or Japan's increase in holdings in the 1980s, or most of the foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets after the Southeast Asian financial crisis in the 1990s were placed in U.S. debt, because U.S. debt has low transaction costs, high liquidity and high security.Chinese investors don't need to worry too much about U.S. bond yield volatilityNow many investors take it for granted that U.S. bond yields are the anchor for the pricing of major global asset allocations, and once they move, the ground will shake.However, I think this anchor is actually weakening.One node of weakening was the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. After 2008, the proportion of U.S. debt held by overseas investors peaked and fell. Now the U.S. Treasury Bond market has undergone qualitative changes, and the proportion of U.S. debt held by overseas investors has returned to 2002 levels.An important idea I want to convey to you here today is that Chinese investors don't have to worry too much about fluctuations in U.S. bond yields.The current U.S. debt is the new U.S. debt after the United States implemented MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). It better reflects the U.S. fiscal situation and returns to its origin-textbooks say that Treasury Bond's market serves changes in domestic fiscal policy.The reason why the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt can be used as an anchor for international asset allocation before is that various sovereign countries and major investment institutions hold U.S. debt to a high degree, which affects all aspects of financial operations. But now, the U.S. debt market The main buyer is the Federal Reserve.Last year, the U.S. government issued a net $4.68 trillion in Treasury Bond, of which more than 52% was bought by the Federal Reserve.Slowly, the attribute of U.S. debt began to shift from the attribute of an anchor of international allocation to the attribute of serving the internal finance and finance of major countries.Post-pandemic eraTreasury Bond yields in the United States have rebounded, but are difficult to reverseTo extend a little more, we say that in a new era of MMT theory, investors' knowledge system should be updated to get rid of the framework of 1980s and 1990s;That framework tells us to pay attention to fiscal discipline and the debt ceiling. Maybe you still remember the Maastricht Treaty in Europe.Under the guidance of MMT theory, hard currency countries have broken through the debt ceiling, and the system of debt expansion-economic growth-exchange rate related effects of hard currency countries has been reconstructed and logically self-consistent.For example, in Europe after the European debt crisis, the debt ratio tended to rise; The debt of the United States has been going up all the way, and now it is 303% of the total debt ratio, much higher than China's 270%.In countries with hard currencies, as long as the international monetary system dominated by the US dollar does not collapse, the implementation period of MMT's new monetary theory will exceed expectations.Maybe everyone feels very incomprehensible. The virtual economy in the United States is too prosperous, but the real economy is not very good. Why continuous borrowing didn't lead to the Minsky moment?Why is there no debt crisis in the United States?If this is an emerging market and a soft currency country, there is no doubt that the debt is already very high, and then when bonds are issued and stimulated, it is often inflation internally, devaluation externally, capital flight, and eventually lead to debt crisis.But now, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has shown us all the cards. What she means is: As long as fiscal stimulus can promote the improvement of GDP, this can be sustained.Government debt can be turned into perpetual debt, and there is no need to think about when it will be repaid.So in essence, in the Internet age where populism prevails, compared with the various reforms and social changes we are doing, Europe and the United States are more willing to spend money on time and solve it through technological innovation and a period of development.Therefore, we believe that in the post-epidemic era, U.S. Treasury Bond yields have rebounded, but it is difficult to reverse.Historically, every time there was a financial crisis, the yield of U.S. bonds went directly to 3 or 5. Now, let alone 3 or 5, it is difficult to stabilize at 2.I do not rule out that in May this year, it is possible that the core PCE of U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations due to the base effect and a new round of fiscal stimulus, causing the U.S. bond market to panic, and the U.S. bond yield to rush to 2. This possibility;However, it is difficult to sustain, so we say that the rebound in U.S. bond yields is difficult to reverse.The current new stagflation is different from stagflation in the 1970sNow the normal state is a new type of stagflation, which is different from stagflation in the 1970s.Everyone can understand \"stagnation\", but \"inflation\" is different, because in stagflation in the 1970s, it was the era of baby boomers. There was no problem with demand, but there was a problem with supply. There were two oil crises in 1973 and 1978.What is the problem with stagflation now? Now there are problems with demand, the aging population, the widening gap between the rich and the poor, etc., which suppress effective demand;The current \"inflation\" is more reflected in the asset bubble. For example, the houses in the core areas are still maintaining and increasing their value, and the core assets in various fields we are talking about-that is, the ones with the most core competitiveness and long-term growth momentum in China, whether it is cyclical value stocks with steady growth, or consumer medical technology with growth exceeding expectations, etc., these high-quality assets are scarce in the world.Europe and the United States, especially the United States, where MMT is implemented, the wheel of economic recovery is still turning, but it is difficult to bring the United States into a new round of comprehensive prosperity;Its social problems are deep-seated \"stagnation\". Racial conflicts, widening gap between the rich and the poor and other problems will restrain effective demand. In addition, the United States can't always rely on helicopter money to subsidize lazy people, because it is not in line with the Protestant spirit of the United States.In this context, the current inflation is not a problem, and the rise in U.S. long-term bond interest rates is not a big problem.America's strategy is to buy time with moneyTo enhance competitivenessSome A-share investors worry that \"the United States is very powerful, the United States is going to harvest us, and the United States is going to engage in a financial war\".I advise you not to overestimate the United States,The game between great powers is a protracted war,At present, the United States doesn't have enough will and confidence to provoke the financial crisis, because its current state is actually to buy time with money and slowly endure us with rules.The current domestic political situation in the United States can actually be learned from the United States in the early 1970s. At that time, it lost the Vietnam War. This time, it failed to fight the epidemic. The domestic politics in the United States is very torn and turbulent;In addition, the external situation at that time was that the Soviet Union and Japan respectively had strong competitive pressure on the United States in terms of politics and economy. This time, China actually had greater pressure on the American economy than Japan in the 1970s, and the United States was also fabricating the \"China threat theory\" in politics, diplomacy and military affairs.Therefore, at this time, I don't think the United States actually has enough will and confidence to provoke the financial crisis. If the United States had confidence, it wouldn't have unplugged the network cable some time ago.In the medium and long term, the game between China and the United States is a protracted war. What is the more likely strategy of the United States?It is to use money to buy time to enhance competitiveness. Come and go to suppress China's competitiveness. Use money to buy time internally to restore the competitiveness of the United States, and use rules to unite allies externally to suppress China's competitiveness.In the future, the United States will compete with us in advanced manufacturing, technology and domestic demand. These three aspects will ultimately be the three focuses of the game between China and the United States at the economic level.From here, why are we actively promoting carbon neutrality?Carbon neutrality is definitely not a simple short-term hype.As a result, if steel rises, it will be carbon neutral, and if clean energy and new energy vehicles fall, it will not be carbon neutral. This is just hype.Correctly understand carbon neutrality from the perspective of the game between major powers,On the one hand, we take precautions in advance, knowing that the United States will restrict us in terms of environmental protection, clean energy, sustainable development, etc., so we should take the initiative and adjust ourselves faster;Moreover, by implementing the carbon neutrality strategy, we can establish a broader alliance of interests with Europe, which is of far-reaching significance.To sum up, the rise in long-term bond interest rates in the United States is unsustainable. It is more of a technical issue and a phased issue. It is necessary to desensitize the US Treasury yields and not be too sensitive.Because the current influence of U.S. debt is different from that of the past 30 years. This time is not a precursor to the crisis. 2021 is definitely not 2008 or 2018. Now everyone's anxiety about this is a bit extreme.Now it's a small correction of the structural bullThe catalyst is that the recovery of the United States drives the style switch of global stock marketsTwo,Opinions on style switchingFrom a medium-to long-term perspective, now is not the beginning of systemic risk, nor the beginning of a bear market, but a small correction of structural bull.We look forward to the market situation. On the one hand, the short-term group game has experienced great joys, sorrows, ups and downs. Now the mood is still unstable, and it takes time to repair confidence.But on the other hand, for core assets, only based on fundamental logic can we achieve stability and far-reaching progress. Really good companies are not afraid of falling or falling. This is what I told you in early 2016. When the market fluctuates, it is actually a good time to choose stocks.Regarding the market outlook, there are several issues of market concern:The first question is the definition of adjustment-this adjustment is not the beginning of a systemic crisis, but actually a phased rest. The catalyst for the rest is that the recovery of the United States drives the style switch of the global stock market.U.S. investors think that the rise in U.S. bond yields is a normal companion of recovery. Americans think this is normal. Recently, the U.S. Dow Jones index has significantly outperformed the Nasdaq index. From the perspective of industry attributes, energy, finance, and industrial equipment have outperformed Information technology, but the dynamic P/E in the field of information technology has also declined relatively rapidly.In the next few months, the European and American economies should enter a stronger recovery stage, because the popularization of vaccines and a new round of stimulus of US $1.9 trillion will bring about a retaliatory rebound in consumption, coupled with a low base, so the second quarter of the United States Whether it is economic recovery data or inflation data, it will be relatively strong.Therefore, style switching in 2021 is an inevitable choice for value investing.This Correction Could Overkill for Growth StocksWe believeIn fact, U.S. stocks are already leading the return of global value, that is, the rebalancing of style, the reconsideration of cost performance and the reconstruction of valuation system.In fact, the relative gains of cyclical value of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the past month or so are obvious. For example, since the beginning of the year, the top rankings of the Hang Seng Index are three barrels of oil, finance and three major operators, all of which belong to cyclical value and the like.This correction may be overkill for growth stocks;After the valuation is killed, some people will begin to worry that the performance will not meet expectations or the redemption of funds will trigger an a vicious circle. In this case, many people are worried about the space and time of this market adjustment.I don't think there is much room for follow-up adjustment. The main decline has ended, and there will be differentiation later.In our report \"Newborn calf meets tiger, changing style after cold spring\" written in February, we proposed that the market should have entered a rebound stage in mid-March.In fact, from March 12 to now, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have basically fluctuated upward, although the intensity is not strong. It is not ruled out that there will be another twist and turn in the world in May, and we judge that there is not much room for a decline at that time;Both A-shares and Hong Kong stock indexes are not expensive at all, and even very cheap compared with overseas markets.At that time, there was little room for A-shares below 3,400 points and Hong Kong stocks below 28,400 points.Why the \"late spring cold\" in mid-March may come to an end or even endThe rise in U.S. bond yields may still have some inertia in the second quarterFrom the perspective of time, there may still be two small risks that have not been completely released, which may cause some interference in the market.One risk is that the overall upward trend of U.S. bond yields may still have a certain inertia in the second quarter;Although we have also seen that the upward slope of U.S. bond yields has slowed down recently, in fact, the slowdown in the slope tells everyone that this is not a systemic risk. We can downplay the upward factors of U.S. bond yields and start to research and select stocks around fundamentals.Why do we say that the \"cold spring\" in mid-March may come to an end or even end?This is a historical law. Every time the U.S. bond volatility index rises to around one standard deviation, it will enter shock convergence most of the time, which means that the slope of the second derivative has begun to slow down.In April and May, it is very likely that the yield of U.S. bonds will surge in the short term, but this is the end of the force and will peak within the year.A-share investors are worried that the $1.9 trillion fiscal rescue plan will normally increase the debt pressure of the federal government, but in fact there are still about 1.4 trillion yuan in the current total account deposits (TGA) of the U.S. Treasury Department.According to the latest statement from the U.S. Treasury Department, subsequent post-epidemic stimulus will give priority to the use of TGA balances rather than newly issued debt. The U.S. Treasury Department expects that the funding gap and financing plans will drop significantly in the first half of 2021. This is a bad news.A-share investors are overly worried about inflationAnother bad news,That is, whether the American-style recovery will trigger the out-of-control and soaring commodity CPI and PPI.Looking at it now, both foreign investors and the Federal Reserve regard the recovery of the United States as a normal expectation, but many A-share investors seem to be pessimistic. What are they worried about?Worried that if the U.S. economy recovers strongly, global inflation may accelerate, and China will face imported inflation, which will trigger further policy tightening. This fear of inflation is too anxious.When excessive concerns about rising inflation can be falsified, we have to wait until the late second quarter of this year, that is, to look at the inflation data in April in early May, and to look at the inflation data in May in early June.If the inflation data for April is released in early May, then the market that should react will also react. If it does not react, it will be considered an early reaction. When the bad news is exhausted, it will be numb.It is not ruled out that the core PCE of the United States will rise to more than 3% in April. The core inflation of the United States has not risen to more than 3% in the past 10 years. It exceeded expectations. First, the base was very low due to the lock down policy of the United States from April to May last year.The second reason is that the implementation of the 1.9 trillion financial rescue plan in late March coupled with the rapid popularization of vaccines, and April is the big day of Easter, so the retaliatory rebound in consumption is still relatively obvious.April's inflation data is an outlier, but the capital market tends to extrapolate linearly, so there may be some disturbances at that time. Even if there are some disturbances, it can actually be regarded as exhausting the bad news, which is precisely a golden pit.So I think that even if inflation exceeds expectations in the later period, the Fed has enough tools and power to lower long-term bond interest rates. After all, there are many weapons in the Fed's arsenal, and there are still means such as YCC that have not been implemented.From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, when to take action, it still depends on the real interest rate;Although the 10-year U.S. bond yield has risen to 1.6%, the entire 10-year real interest rate is still-0.6%. Except for the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond real interest rate, which has turned positive, everything else has not yet turned positive.The adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lastsNow you can choose stocks and do the left side, don't panic too muchThree,Outlook on the market and timing of correctionThe third thing to report and communicate with you is the outlook of the market and the time of adjustment.We think the adjustment time depends on how long the negative impact of the group game lasts.Recently, it is mainly reflected in a group game of growth stocks, and recently it has moved from a virtuous circle to an a vicious circle.After the recent rapid adjustment, based on the long-term judgment of industry analysts on the company, we believe that the valuation of growth-oriented core assets has entered a reasonable position in the medium and long term. So foreign investors have also started to buy recently. There is not much downside in this position.Concerns about whether the negative impact of the group game will worsen will still suppress market risk appetite.At present, fund managers have reported that redemptions are not obvious, and the mentality of fund investors is still relatively stable, which is not the same as the stampede of killing more and killing more in 2015. However, it may take time to digest later.Now adjusting to this position, everyone is confident in the long run, but the static TTM valuation is not particularly attractive;Perhaps in the late second quarter, the negative overseas news just mentioned is superimposed on the softening of domestic policies, and the domestic economic value begins to fall. At that time, the market will show a trend upward again, and the time node may be better.Now you can choose stocks on the left side, so don't panic too much. If you choose stocks on the right side, you can wait a little longer.Generally speaking, the group game is actually not an objective result, but forms self-reinforcement and self-circulation around the requirements of the fund's relative income ranking.It used to be chasing the rise, but recently it has been selling the fall. This is subjective speculation.Therefore, every time the market for group assets ended in the past, it was not due to external shocks. External shocks only triggered major quarterly adjustments at most.The key to the real end is whether the medium-and long-term fundamental trends of related assets have reversed beyond expectations. The key to whether these assets can start again in the future lies in performance.What we should do now is not to worry about whether to participate in the short-term rebound, but to use the long to fight the short. First, we should conduct research to confirm these companies that we have previously held heavily and ensure their fundamentals.If you can't fall and find out that you are a liar, that's it. For example, in 2015, LeTV and the like were either delisted, or the fundamental logic was falsified.This time it is more like those core U.S. assets in the past decade or so. These assets will also adjust when they fall. For example, Amazon and Google also fell sharply in February 2018. But after these companies fall, it can only make their price/performance ratio better, rather than falsifying the logic of fundamentals.Now, instead of worrying about the macro trend, it is better to do stock selection, because the macro trend has been reflected in the previous adjustment.We are concerned that since February 18th, northbound funds have generally been a net inflow, especially since March, the inflow is actually quite obvious;It just means that its style is more balanced. From the previous partial consumption to the present performance is king, some banks, chemicals, even steel and real estate have it.Of course, some people wonder if this is hot money behavior. We are in contact with customers in Europe and America or Singapore. These investors who are farther away from China actually have confidence in China, because the price/performance ratio is better, and good assets are scarce all over the world.The subsequent style will shift to profit-drivenFour,Investment StrategyFinally, my investment strategy suggestions for everyone.I think the label style conversion has come to an end, and the subsequent style will turn to profit-driven.In the next stage, a black cat and a white cat will be a good cat if they catch a mouse. The industry may not be distinct. It is not a game in which steel rises and new energy falls.The most comfortable stage of the sector rebound of cyclical stocks has passed, and the opportunity for valuation repair has come to an end.Later, you need to look for α in β.This time, China's style switching will not be as strong as that of the United States.Recently, the energy and financial sectors in the United States have generally risen due to the expansion of demand in the United States.China's recovery this time is different from last year. The growth rate of investment in infrastructure or real estate is slowing down at the margin, unlike the 4 trillion after 2008, or like joining the WTO and urbanization and industrialization in the 2000s, when cyclical stocks rose. It's all because of the explosion of demand.Now the first step in style switching is almost done。China's economic growth rate has gradually declined in the next few quarters, so we cannot expect commodities such as copper or crude oil to rise much.My judgment is that copper prices and even oil prices have reached a high area, because although Europe and the United States are recovering, this recovery is more consumption-driven than infrastructure-driven;At the same time, China should take the opportunity to resolve the existing debt risk and reduce the government leverage ratio, which is relatively negative for the demand for infrastructure and commodities. Therefore, in terms of bulk raw materials, the situation in China, Europe and the United States may have a trade-off hedge.Therefore, the upstream bulk raw materials may have entered high shocks and begun to differentiate.Why haven't cyclical stocks plummeted across the board immediately? Previous experience is that stocks peak before commodity prices peak?This time it is because of carbon neutrality. Bulk cyclical products benefiting from carbon neutrality can continue to rise. This is the logic of supply-side reform.The second quarter is a boon for the manufacturing industryThe left layout point of the growth sector has arrivedFor the midstream manufacturing industry, opportunities are beginning to slowly and clearly establish:In the second quarter, whether overseas or domestically, the upstream \"inflation\" power may reach a high point, which means that it is a boon for the manufacturing industry, the cost of manufacturing industry can be alleviated in all aspects; At the same time, because the recovery in Europe and the United States is driven by consumption, the inertia is actually stronger.Therefore, for this kind of manufacturing leader that can get overseas orders and have global pricing power, it is essentially α. For example, whether it is nowWanhua is to chemical industry, or Sany is to machinery.In fact, it is a relatively independent existence. It is not completely subject to the fluctuations of the cyclical industry, but has begun to emerge as a cross-cycle attribute.In the next stage of cyclical industries, we must pay attention to the impact of carbon neutrality. In particular, some manufacturing leaders benefit from carbon neutrality on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can also share the benefits brought by the economic recovery in Europe and the United States. Therefore, in the next stage, we can start laying out manufacturing. A high-quality company in the industry.For the growth sector, whether it is consumption or medicine, in the long run, the layout point on the left has actually arrived, and those unfirm elements who follow the trend have now begun to go out.The so-called left layout, because the early group sector may fall deeply and rebound, but whether it can be sustained still depends on profitability. If the profitability elasticity is not strong but it is only a stock with strong long-term stability, then the current dynamic P/E and static P/E can't Let everyone buy the bottom without any doubts.From a short-term perspective, the status of these sectors is a bit awkward, and some people will flee as soon as they rebound. Therefore, this type of asset will follow up the process of recuperation, going up and down, and consolidating the box.We believe that,A better time for growth core assets may be in the mid-to-late second quarter.The long-term cost performance of the core asset of the Internet has begun to become prominentCorresponding to Hong Kong stocks，First of all, financial or three major operators these value stocks, now as a defensive counterattack, I think the target that does not seek huge profits can still be taken, and it can be regarded as a better convertible bond.Secondly, cyclical stocks will differentiate, and the more they can make α, the better.The benefits brought by inflation are actually implied in the stock price. When inflation really peaks, the stock price may already start to fall, because the stock market will be more sensitive than the real economy.We judge that commodity prices have entered the high point area of the year, even if they have not yet reached the big top,But the strongest stage of commodity upside may have passed;Now that commodities have entered a period of high volatility and building a top area, under this circumstance, the impact of demand on cyclical products is weakening. At this time, there is an opportunity for version 2.0 of carbon neutrality around supply-side reform.Third, China's growth targets, especially core assets such as the Internet, will recuperate in the first half of the year but there are no major systemic risks. The long-term cost performance has begun to highlight。Combine this type of asset with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>To benchmark, our Internet leader has stronger growth and stronger profit elasticity, such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>The valuation is actually very attractive.The market's growth-oriented core assets are more of a slow relief of emotions. At least there are no systemic risks. Tencent and Alibaba can stabilize, and there is no big problem for Meituan to fluctuate up and down. The market has different views on Xiaomi. There are so-called problems with military-related enterprises, but after falling by 25% since the beginning of the year, it has begun to be a bit negative.That's why these give me the confidence to say that there is no room for Hong Kong stocks below 28,400 points. After the growth leader of Hong Kong stocks stabilizes, other growth stocks can pick up, such as property, education, auto parts, consumption and medicine sectors. Now you can look for α.sum upThree sentences to briefly summarize:(1) ThisNot a systemic risk, not the beginning of a bear market, but a correction of a structural bull。(2)There is not much room for subsequent adjustments.The market has rebounded in the short term, but the sentiment is still affected by the negative impact of the group game. Therefore, the adjustment time may last until the middle and late second quarter, which is a period of right-hand layout.(3) Style switching cannot be blindly, and do not choose side stations by labeling according to industry attributes. Now we have entered the era of stock selection with the left layout.The relative returns of growth stocks (consumer technology pharmaceuticals) and cyclical value stocks have converged rapidly in the past two months, and now both sides have entered the stage of individual stock selection.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199276124","content_text":"“这次不是系统性风险。为什么不是系统性风险？这一次美债收益率超预期上行的根本原因还是美债供求关系的一个失衡，而更核心的原因是美债持有结构的一个质的变化。”\n“我今天在这里想传递给大家的一个重要理念，就是中国投资者不必过度担心美债收益率的波动。”\n“后疫情时代，美国的国债收益率有反弹，但难反转。历史上看每次出现金融危机，都是美债收益率直接干到3或者干到5，现在别说干到3或5了，能够稳住在2都很难。”\n“中长期而言，中美大国博弈是持久战，美国更可能的策略是什么？是用钱买时间来增强竞争力。来去压制中国的竞争力。对内用钱买时间来去恢复美国的竞争力，对外利用规则联合盟友来压制我们中国的竞争力。\n未来，美国要跟我们竞赛，在先进制造业、科技和内需方面竞赛，这三方面最终将是中美大国博弈在经济层面的三个聚焦点。”\n“从中长期的角度来看，现在不是系统性风险的开始，也不是一个熊市的开始，而是结构性长牛一次小小的修正。”\n“这一次的调整对于成长股来说可能会矫枉过正，估值杀下来以后有人会开始担心业绩不达预期或者赎回基金引发多杀多恶性循环，这种情况下，很多人担心这次行情调整的空间和时间。\n我认为后续调整空间不大，主要的下跌已经结束，后面会有分化。”\n“调整时间我们觉得是取决于抱团博弈的负面冲击延续多久。近期主要是体现在成长股的一个抱团博弈，最近是从良性循环走向恶性循环。经过了近期的快速调整以后，基于行业分析师对于公司长期判断，我们认为成长型的核心资产的估值已经进入到中长期合理的位置。所以外国投资者最近也在不断的开始买。这个位置下行空间不大。”\n“也许到了二季度后期，刚刚讲的海外的利空叠加国内政策的软化，国内的经济数值开始回落，那时，行情再出现趋势性的上涨，可能时间节点更好。现在可以选股做左侧，不用太恐慌了，如果是做右侧，可以再稍稍的等一等。”\n“二季度无论海外还是国内，上游‘胀’的力量可能都会到高点，这意味着对于制造业是个福音，制造业的成本各方面能够有所缓解；而同时欧美的复苏因为是消费驱动的，惯性其实更强一些。”\n“对于成长型的板块，无论是消费还是医药，立足长期而言，左侧布局点其实也已经来临了，那些跟风的不坚定分子现在已经开始出局。”\n“中国的成长领域标的特别是互联网这种核心资产，上半年后续是休养生息但没有大的系统性风险，长期的性价比已经开始凸显了。”\n以上，是兴业证券首席全球策略分析师张忆东，3月17日在一场小范围的交流中，分享的最新精彩观点。\n最近美债收益率收益率上行，国内市场连续回调，而在张忆东看来，国内投资者对于美债收益率上行的这个事过度关注了。\n张忆东详细分析了这次美债收益率上行背后的核心原因，认为现在的美债已经跟10年前的美债不是同一个影响力了，中国投资者不必过度担心美债收益率的波动。从中长期的角度来看，这是结构性长牛一次小小的修正，后面会有分化。\n同时，他还重点谈到了这次调整可能带来的机会，哪些资产现在已经可以开始布局。\n以下是此次交流全文，聪明投资者经忆东总授权，分享给大家。\n\n很高兴今天晚上跟大家一起分享，汇报关于美债收益率、通胀和风格切换的问题，以及关于市场后期走向的问题。\n国内投资者有三种悲观情绪\n真是属于脑洞大开\n一、对于美债收益率和通胀的看法\n总体来说，我们觉得回到核心资产的价值真谛，这才是重要的。对于美债以及抱团博弈，这都是浮云。\n交流下来，我感觉国内的投资者对于美债收益率上行的这个事过度关注了。\n现在国内投资者有三种悲观的情绪：\n第一种情绪，觉得美国要完，像是2008年次贷的那种预期，觉得美国长债收益率上行会引发美国的债务风险，进而导致全球的无风险收益率的上行，最终美国债股双杀引发全球危机，中国也好不了；\n第二种情绪，相反，觉得美国很厉害，觉得美国经济复苏很强，美国要搞超限金融战了，美元可能要反转了，要割全世界韭菜了，就像是东南亚金融危机，，这一种情绪是对美国过度高估，投降主义；\n第三种情绪是，对于美债收益率上行——不明觉厉，先卧倒为敬，以防范海外的风险。\n这三种情绪真是属于脑洞大开。\n这一次美债收益率上行，我们要深入的聊一聊，知其然更要知其所以然。\n从2月中旬到现在，全球市场并不是全都在跌，法国、德国等欧元区股市其实是在创历史新高，道琼斯也不断地创历史新高，纳斯达克确实调整了但也还是很克制的，反而，中国内地和中国香港股市从2月中旬到现在调得七荤八素的。\n美债收益率上行不是系统性风险\n更核心的原因是美债持有结构质的变化\n我们有必要在这个时候梳理一下美债收益率上行的核心原因，从而来预判这究竟是不是一个系统性风险？\n从2月初开始，美债收益率从1.15%快速攀升到现在的1.6%，升得这么快确实超出预期。升得快的背后是不是基本面的因素？\n比如说通胀失控、经济过热，如果是这些因素，会带来系统性的风险。\n但是，如果美联储或者美国财政部能够控制到的话，那就是技术性的风险。\n很显然我们认为这次不是系统性风险。为什么不是系统性风险？\n这一次美债收益率超预期上行的根本原因还是美债供求关系的一个失衡，而更核心的原因是美债持有结构的一个质的变化。\n2008年美国之外的外国投资者持有美债的比重是54%，然后到了2015年是47%，之后下降的飞快，现在是34%。\n一方面中国2015年以后汇率改革了，而中东的产油国也没钱了，日本持有的美国国债规模在2015年之后出现了明显的下滑，日本从1985年开始井喷式购买的美债（期限最长的为30年）进入偿还期了。\n外国投资者持有美债的需求明显的减弱。\n另一方面，新冠疫情之后美债的发行较过去20年有大幅提升，2020年比2009年增加了一倍多，所以这种情况下短期就会使得美债利率上行超预期。\n可以看到前段时间7年期美债的拍卖的竞拍倍数是差不多20年的低位，投资者兴趣索然，这种情况推动了阶段性的供需关系的一个失衡，进而推动了美国长债利率超预期的上行。\n现在的美债跟10年前的美债不是同一个影响力\n美债投资者结构从量变到质变，外国投资者的占比出现了趋势性的下行，这个影响可能是比较深远的。\n首先，过去的格林斯潘之谜不再谜了，美债长端利率反映的是国内财政政策的正常节奏，而作为全球资产定价之锚的作用在弱化。\n从1969年一直到2015年，外国投资者帮助美联储压低了长债利率，甚至使得美国的长端利率和短端利率产生了脱节，这就是所谓的格林斯潘之迷。\n格林斯潘想要去在短端加息，但是根本无法传导影响长端利率。\n此一时彼一时，现在的美债已经跟10年前的美债不是同一个影响力了。\n现在美债市场投资者结构的变化，使得美债收益率对于短期的供给更加敏感，美债短期供求关系的紧平衡，这才是近期美债长端利率超预期上行的主要原因。\n耶伦可以发债缓一下，或者说美联储购债力度大一点，这都很正常，更不用说还有OT、YCC等工具。所以这不是一个系统性风险或者趋势性风险。\n部分国内投资者担心的美国通胀预期和美国经济，无法解释美债收益率上行，最多只是次要因素。\n因为美国经济只是刚刚复苏，远不是过热；另外，通胀预期2月18号之后，事实上TIPS所隐含的通胀预期是平稳的，甚至略有下降。\n我们把美债收益率作为全球资产定价之锚的历史做了一个回顾，无论是70年代石油美元还是80年代的日本增持，还是说到90年代东南亚金融危机后新兴市场的外汇储备大部分放在了美债，因为美债是低交易成本高流动性高安全性的。\n中国投资者不必过度担心美债收益率波动\n现在不少投资者理所当然地认为，美债收益率就是全球大类资产配置定价的锚，一旦动了就地动山摇。\n但是，我认为这个锚其实在发生弱化。\n弱化的一个节点是在2008年次贷危机，2008年以后海外投资者持有美债的比重就见顶回落了，如今美国国债市场已经产生了质的变化，海外投资者持有美债的比重回到了2002年的水平。\n我今天在这里想传递给大家的一个重要理念，就是中国投资者不必过度担心美债收益率的波动。\n现在的美债是美国践行MMT（现代货币理论）之后的新美债，它更加反映美国财政状况，回归了本源——教科书上讲国债市场是服务于国内财政政策的变化。\n之所以此前美债长端利率能够作为国际大类资产配置的锚，是因为各个主权国家和主要的投资机构都高度持有美债从而影响到方方面面的金融运行，但是现在，美债市场里边的主要购买者是美联储。\n去年美国政府净发行的4.68万亿美金的国债，其中52%以上是美联储买的。\n慢慢地，美债的属性从一个国际配置的锚的属性开始转向作为一个为大国内部财政金融服务的属性。\n后疫情时代\n美国的国债收益率有反弹，但难反转\n再延伸一点，我们说在一个MMT理论的新时代，投资者的知识体系要更新，摆脱八九十年代的框架；\n那个框架告诉我们要注意财政的纪律、要注意债务上限，也许大家还记得当初欧洲的马斯特里赫特条约。\nMMT理论的指导下，硬货币国家已经突破了债务上限，硬货币国家的债务扩展-经济增长-汇率相关作用的体系已经重构并且逻辑自洽。\n比如说欧债危机以后的欧洲，债务率有趋势性的上移；美国债务一路向上走，现在是303%的总债务率，远高于中国的270%。\n在硬货币的国家，只要美元主导的国际货币体系不崩盘，MMT新货币理论实施的期限就会超预期。\n也许大家感觉很不能理解，美国虚拟经济太繁荣、而实体经济并不太好，为啥不断借债就是没有导致明斯基时刻，为啥美国没有发生债务危机？\n如果这是一个新兴市场、一个软货币的国家，毫无疑问，债务已经很高了，然后再发债、再进行刺激的时候，它往往对内是通胀，对外是贬值，资本外逃，最终会导致债务危机。\n但是现在，美国财政部长耶伦已经把牌都打给我们看了，她的意思是说：只要财政刺激能够推动GDP的改善，这就可以持续下去。\n政府债务可以变为永续债，根本不用考虑什么时候要还。\n所以本质上来说，在民粹主义盛行的互联网时代，相比起我们在做的各种改革和社会的变革，欧洲和美国更愿意花钱买时间，通过科技创新、经过一段时间的发展去解决。\n所以，我们认为，后疫情时代，美国的国债收益率有反弹，但难反转。\n历史上看每次出现金融危机，都是美债收益率直接干到3或者干到5，现在别说干到3或5了，能够稳住在2都很难。\n我不排除今年5月份，有可能美国通胀数据核心PCE在基数效应以及新一轮的财政刺激下超预期，导致美债市场可能慌一慌，美债收益率向2冲一冲，有这个可能性；\n但是，难以持续，所以我们说美债收益率有反弹难反转。\n现在的新型滞胀不同于70年代的滞涨\n现在的常态是新型滞胀，不同于70年代的滞涨。\n“滞”，大家都能理解，但是“胀”是不一样的，因为在70年代的滞涨，那是婴儿潮的时代，需求没问题，但是供给有问题，1973年和1978年两次石油危机。\n现在的滞胀的问题是什么？现在需求有问题，人口老龄化，贫富差距拉大等等压制有效需求；\n现在的“胀”更多的体现在资产泡沫，比如说核心地段的房子还是保值增值的，以及我们讲的各个领域的核心资产——就是中国最具有核心竞争力、长期成长动能的，无论是增长稳健的周期价值股，还是成长超预期的消费医药科技等等，这些优质资产都是全球稀缺的。\n实施MMT的欧美，特别是美国，目前的经济复苏的轮子还是转的，但是很难带来美国进入新的一轮全面繁荣；\n它的社会问题是深层次的“滞”，种族矛盾、贫富差距拉大等问题都会抑制有效需求，另外，美国不可能一直靠直升机撒钱去补贴懒人，因为这不符合美国的新教精神。\n在这种背景下，现在的通胀不是问题，美国长债利率上行也不是大问题。\n美国的策略是用钱买时间\n来增强竞争力\n有些A股投资者担心说“美国很厉害，美国要收割我们，美国要搞金融战了”。\n我劝大家不必太高估美国，大国博弈是持久战，美国现在没有足够的意愿和信心来挑起金融危机，因为他现在的状态其实是用钱来买时间，用规则慢慢熬我们。\n美国当前的国内政治形势可以借鉴的其实是上世纪70年代初的美国，当时是打输了越战，这一次是抗击疫情失利，美国国内的政治非常撕裂动荡；\n另外，当时的外部形势是，苏联和日本分别在政治经济对美国有了很强的竞争压力，而这一次中国其实比70年代的日本对美国经济的赶超压力更大，在政治外交军事上美国也在编造“中国威胁论”。\n所以，这个时候我认为美国其实没有足够的意愿和信心去挑起金融危机，如果美国有信心的话，它也不会前段时间拔网线了。\n中长期而言，中美大国博弈是持久战，美国更可能的策略是什么？\n是用钱买时间来增强竞争力。来去压制中国的竞争力。对内用钱买时间来去恢复美国的竞争力，对外利用规则联合盟友来压制我们中国的竞争力。\n未来，美国要跟我们竞赛，在先进制造业、科技和内需方面竞赛，这三方面最终将是中美大国博弈在经济层面的三个聚焦点。\n从这里引申一下，为什么我们很积极的推动碳中和？\n碳中和绝对不是单纯的短期题材炒作，从而出现钢铁涨了就是碳中和，清洁能源和新能源车下跌的就不是碳中和，这是炒作而已。\n从大国博弈的高度来正确认知碳中和，\n一方面是我们提前未雨绸缪，知道美国要从环保、清洁能源、可持续发展等方面来限制我们，那我们自己主动、更快地调整自己；\n而且，我们通过实施碳中和战略可以和欧洲建立一个更广泛的利益同盟，这一方面的意义更加深远。\n总结一下，美国的长债利率上行是不可持续的，它更多是一个技术性问题，是一个阶段性问题，要对美债利率脱敏，不要太敏感。\n因为现在的美债影响力已经跟过去的30年不一样了。这一次不是危机的前兆，2021年肯定不是2008年也不是2018年，现在大家对此的焦虑情绪有点极端了。\n现在是结构性长牛一次小小的修正\n催化剂是美国复苏带动全球股市风格切换\n二、对于风格切换的看法\n从中长期的角度来看，现在不是系统性风险的开始，也不是一个熊市的开始，而是结构性长牛一次小小的修正。\n我们展望市场行情，一方面，短期抱团博弈经历了大喜大悲大起大伏，现在情绪还不稳定，需要时间来修复信心。\n但另一方面，对于核心资产，立足基本面逻辑才能行稳致远，真正的好公司不怕跌、跌不怕，这是我2016年初就跟大家讲的，市场震荡的时候其实是选股的好时机。\n关于行情的展望，有几个市场关注的问题：\n第一个问题，是调整的界定——这次调整不是系统性危机的开始，其实就是阶段性的休整，休整的催化剂是美国复苏带动全球股市风格切换。\n美国投资者觉得美债收益率上行是正常的复苏伴生物，美国人觉得这很正常，最近美国道琼斯指数明显跑赢纳斯达克指数，从行业属性上看，能源、金融、工业设备跑赢了信息技术，但是信息技术领域的动态市盈率下降的也比较快。\n未来几个月欧美经济应该进入到更加强劲的复苏阶段，因为疫苗普及，加之1.9万亿美元新一轮的刺激落地，都会带来消费的报复性反弹，再加上低基数，所以美国二季度无论是经济复苏的数据还是通胀的数据，都会比较强劲。\n所以，2021年风格切换是价值投资的必然选择。\n这次调整对于成长股来说可能会矫枉过正\n我们认为美股其实已经在引领着全球的价值回归，就是风格的再平衡、性价比的重新考量和估值体系的再建。\n事实上A股和港股最近一个多月周期价值的相对收益很明显，比如恒指年初以来排名靠前的是三桶油、金融和三大运营商，这些都属于周期价值之类的。\n这一次的调整对于成长股来说可能会矫枉过正；\n估值杀下来以后有人会开始担心业绩不达预期或者赎回基金引发多杀多恶性循环，这种情况下，很多人担心这次行情调整的空间和时间。\n我认为后续调整空间不大，主要的下跌已经结束，后面会有分化。\n在我们2月写的报告《初生牛犊遇到虎，倒春寒后换风格》里提出，行情在三月中应该进入了一个反弹阶段。\n事实上从3月12日到现在，无论A股还是港股基本上还是震荡上行的，虽然力度不强。不排除5月份全球又会有一个波折，我们判断那个时候向下跌的空间也是不大的；\n无论是A股和港股大指数一点都不贵，跟海外市场相比甚至是很便宜，那时A股3400点以下、港股的28400点以下没啥空间。\n为什么3月中旬“倒春寒”可能告一段落甚至结束\n美债收益率上行在二季度可能还有一定的惯性\n从时间的维度来看，现在可能还有两个小风险没有完全的释放干净，可能会引发市场的一些干扰。\n一个风险是整体美债收益率上行在二季度可能还有一定的惯性；\n虽然我们也看到从近期美债收益率上行的斜率已经放缓了，其实斜率放缓就是告诉大家这不是一个系统性风险，可以淡化美债收益率上行的因素，开始围绕基本面去调研选股。\n为什么我们说3月中旬“倒春寒”可能告一段落甚至结束？\n这是一种历史规律，美债波动率指数每次升到一倍标准差附近，大多数的时候会进入震荡收敛了，也就是说会预示到二阶导数已经开始斜率放缓。\n到了四五月份，很可能美债收益率收益率会短期冲一下，但这是强弩之末了，年内见顶。\nA股投资者担心1.9万亿美元财政救助计划正常来说会加重联邦政府的债务压力，但事实上因为当前美国财政部总账户存款（TGA）中仍有约1.4万亿元。\n根据美国财政部最新表态，后续疫后刺激将优先使用TGA余额而非新发行债务。美国财政部预期2021上半年资金缺口、融资计划都将明显下降。这是一个利空出尽。\nA股投资者对通胀的担心过度焦虑了\n另外一个利空，就是究竟美国式的复苏会不会引发大宗商品CPI、PPI的失控和飙升。\n现在来看，无论是外国投资者还是美联储，都是把美国的复苏的当做一种正常预期，但是不少A股投资者好像比较悲观，他们担心的是什么？\n担心美国经济强复苏的话，全球的通胀可能会加速，中国就会面临着输入型的通胀，从而会不会引发政策进一步收紧。这种对通胀的担心是太过度焦虑了。\n什么时候对于通胀上行的过度担忧能够被证伪，这就要等今年的二季度后期，也就是5月上旬看4月份的通胀数据，6月上旬看5月份的通胀数据。\n快则5月上旬是4月份通胀数据公布出来，那么该反应的市场也会反应了，不反应也就属于提前反应了，利空出尽的时候反而就麻木了。\n不排除美国4月的核心PCE会上升到3%以上，近10年美国的核心通胀都没有上到3%以上，超预期一是因为去年4月~5月份美国lock down政策导致基数非常低，\n二是因为，3月下旬1.9万亿的财政救助计划实施再叠加了疫苗的普及也比较快，4月份又是复活节的大日子，所以，消费的报复性反弹还是比较明显的。\n4月份的通胀数据是一个异常值，但是资本市场往往会线性外推，所以可能那个时候会有一些扰动。即便有些扰动，其实可以看做是利空出尽，这恰恰是一个黄金坑。\n所以我认为即使后期通胀超预期，美联储也是有足够的工具和力量去压低长债利率的。毕竟美联储武器库里面的武器很多，还有YCC等手段没实施。\n从美联储的角度看什么时候要动手，还是要看实际利率；\n现在虽然十年期美债收益率上升到1.6%了，但是整个十年期实际利率还是在-0.6%，除了30年美国国债实际利率转正以外，其他的都还没转正。\n调整时间取决于抱团博弈的负面冲击延续多久\n现在可以选股做左侧，不用太恐慌了\n三、对市场的展望和调整的时间\n第三个要跟大家汇报交流的是对市场的展望和调整的时间。\n调整时间我们觉得是取决于抱团博弈的负面冲击延续多久。\n近期主要是体现在成长股的一个抱团博弈，最近是从良性循环走向恶性循环。\n经过了近期的快速调整以后，基于行业分析师对于公司长期判断，我们认为成长型的核心资产的估值已经进入到中长期合理的位置。所以外国投资者最近也在不断的开始买。这个位置下行空间不大。\n对抱团博弈的负面冲击会不会恶化的担忧，仍将压制市场风险偏好。\n目前基金经理反馈说赎回不明显，基金投资者的心态还是比较的稳定，跟2015年的那种多杀多的踩踏是不可同日而语的，但是，后面可能还需要时间去消化。\n现在调整到这个位置，长期来看大家是有信心的，但是静态TTM估值还不算特别有吸引力；\n也许到了二季度后期，刚刚讲的海外的利空叠加国内政策的软化，国内的经济数值开始回落，那时，行情再出现趋势性的上涨，可能时间节点更好。\n现在可以选股做左侧，不用太恐慌了，如果是做右侧，可以再稍稍的等一等。\n总体来说，抱团博弈其实不是一种客观结果，而是来围绕着基金的相对收益排名的要求，形成了自我强化和自我循环。\n之前是追涨，最近一段时间就是杀跌，它这种是主观投机。\n所以过去每一次抱团资产的行情终结，都不是因为外部冲击，外部冲击最多只是引发季度性的大调整，\n真正终结的关键、还是相关资产的中长期的基本面趋势是否发生了超预期的反转。后续这些资产能不能再出发，关键还是在于业绩。\n现在该做的不是去操心要不要参与短期反弹，而是要以长打短，先去调研来确认一下此前我们重仓的这些公司，要保证它的基本面。\n不能跌着跌着发现是骗子，那就完了，比如2015年乐视之类的，要么退市，要么基本面逻辑被证伪了。\n这一次更像是过去十几年美国的那些美国核心资产，这些资产跌的时候也会调整，比如Amazon和Google在2018年的2月份也有大跌过。但是这些公司跌了以后只能是使得它的性价比更好了，而不是基本面的逻辑证伪了。\n现在与其操心宏观大势，不如来做选股，因为宏观大势已经在前面的调整中反应出来了。\n我们关注到从2月18日以来，北向资金总体来说是净流入，特别是3月份以来，流入其实是比较明显的；\n只是说它的风格更加平衡一些，从此前的偏消费，到现在业绩为王，一些银行、化工，甚至钢铁和地产都有。\n当然有人疑惑这是不是游资行为，我们在接触的、无论是欧美的客户还是新加坡的客户，这些离中国比较远一点的投资者对中国其实是有信心的，因为性价比更好了，好资产在全球是稀缺的。\n后续风格会转向盈利驱动\n四、投资策略\n最后是我给大家的投资策略建议。我认为标签式的风格转换已经告一段落了，后续的风格会转向盈利驱动。\n下阶段，黑猫白猫抓住老鼠就是好猫，行业上未必是说泾渭分明，不是钢铁涨而新能源就要跌的博弈。\n周期股板块性反弹最舒服的阶段已经过去了，估值修复的机会告一段落，后面要在β里面找α，这一次中国风格切换不会像美国那么强。\n最近美国的能源和金融板块普涨，这是因为美国存在需求的扩张。\n中国这次复苏跟去年已经不一样了，基建或者房地产的投资增速在边际放缓，不像2008年之后的4万亿，或者说像00年代加入WTO、城镇化工业化，那个时候周期股上涨都是因为需求的大爆发。\n现在风格切换的第一步已经差不多了。\n中国经济增速后几个季度是逐步回落的，所以不能指望铜或者原油这一类的大宗商品还能够涨多少。\n我的判断是铜价甚至油价到了一个高位区域了，因为虽然欧美在复苏，这种复苏更多是消费驱动，而不是基建驱动；\n与此同时，中国要趁机化解存量债务风险，降低政府杠杆率，对于基建、大宗商品需求相对是负面的，所以大宗原物料而言，中国和欧美的情况可能会有一个此消彼长的对冲。\n所以上游的大宗原物料可能已经进入高位震荡、开始分化了。\n为什么周期股还没有立刻全线的暴跌，以前的经验是大宗商品价格见顶之前，股票就先见顶了？\n这次是因为碳中和，大宗周期品受益于碳中和的还能继续涨，这是供给侧改革的逻辑。\n二季度对于制造业是个福音\n成长型板块左侧布局点已经来临\n对于中游制造业来看，机会正开始慢慢明显确立：\n二季度无论海外还是国内，上游“胀”的力量可能都会到高点，这意味着对于制造业是个福音，制造业的成本各方面能够有所缓解；而同时欧美的复苏因为是消费驱动的，惯性其实更强一些。\n所以，对于这种能够拿到海外订单以及在全球有定价权的制造业龙头，本质上是α，比如说现在无论是万华之于化工，还是三一之于机械，其实都是一个相对独立的存在，它并没有完全受制于周期行业的波动，而是开始走出来一个穿越周期的属性。\n周期行业下阶段要重视碳中和的影响，特别是有些制造业龙头一方面受益于碳中和，另一方面亦能够分享到欧美经济复苏带来的利好，所以，下个阶段可以动手布局制造业的优质公司了。\n对于成长型的板块，无论是消费还是医药，立足长期而言，左侧布局点其实也已经来临了，那些跟风的不坚定分子现在已经开始出局。\n所谓左侧布局，因为前期抱团板块可能会跌深反弹，但能否持续还是要看盈利，如果盈利弹性不强而只是长期稳定性强的股票，那现在的动态市盈率和静态市盈率还不能让大家毫无疑虑地抄底。\n从短期角度来看，这些板块的地位有点尴尬，一反弹就会有人出逃，因此这一类的资产后续休养生息、上上下下、夯实箱体的过程。\n我们认为，成长型的核心资产更好的时机可能是在二季度的中后期。\n互联网这种核心资产长期性价比开始凸显\n对应到港股里面，首先，金融或三大运营商这些价值股，现在作为防守反击，不求暴利的标的我觉得还是可以拿的，可以视为比较好的一个可转债。\n其次，周期股会分化，越是能做出α的越会好一些，而通胀带来的收益其实已经隐含在股价里了，通胀真正见峰值的时候，股价可能就已经开始跌了，因为股市比实体经济会更敏感一些。\n我们判断大宗商品价格已经进入年内的高点区域，就算还没有到大顶部，但大宗商品上行最强的阶段可能已经过去了；\n现在大宗商品进入到高位震荡、构筑顶部区域的时期，在这种情况下，需求对于周期品的影响在弱化，这个时候围绕着供给侧改革的2.0版的碳中和是有机会的。\n第三，中国的成长领域标的特别是互联网这种核心资产，上半年后续是休养生息但没有大的系统性风险，长期的性价比已经开始凸显了。\n把这一类资产跟谷歌、微软、苹果去对标一下，我们的互联网龙头有更强的增长性、更强的利润弹性，比如像腾讯和阿里巴巴的估值其实是非常有吸引力的。\n市场对于成长型的核心资产更多是一种情绪的慢慢疏解，至少没有系统性风险，腾讯阿里巴巴能稳住，美团上下波动也没大问题，市场对于小米的看法有分歧，有所谓涉军企业的问题，但从年初以来跌了25%以后开始有点利空出尽的状态。\n所以这些才让我有底气说港股28400点以下没啥空间的。港股的成长龙头稳住之后，其他的成长股就能回暖，比如物业、教育、汽车汽车零部件、消费和医药这些板块，现在都可以找找α。\n总结\n三句话简单概括一下：\n（一）这不是系统性风险，不是一个熊市的开始，而是结构性长牛的一次修正。\n（二）后续调整空间下行并不大，短期市场有反弹，但情绪依然受到抱团博弈负向冲击的影响，所以，调整时间有可能延续到二季度中后期，才是右侧布局的一个时期。\n（三）风格切换不能盲目，不要按照行业属性贴标签式选边站，现在开始进入到左侧布局的选股时代。\n成长股（消费科技医药）跟周期价值股过去两个月相对收益的快速收敛，现在双方都已经进入到个股精选的阶段。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":3909668,"commentId":"3909668","gmtCreate":1616990751562,"gmtModify":1680782127929,"authorId":3576741308708587,"author":{"id":3576741308708587,"idStr":"3576741308708587","authorId":3576741308708587,"name":"3600秒的守候","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a997b789b2b70bfa7e4a7a4d32a6d56","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":350904519,"objectIdStr":"350904519","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"发帖","text":"发帖","html":"发帖","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":3834946,"commentId":"3834946","gmtCreate":1616147023167,"gmtModify":1680780992833,"authorId":3567910140501346,"author":{"id":3567910140501346,"idStr":"3567910140501346","authorId":3567910140501346,"name":"Louis5511","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e43fb876d997a00a240cf684fdf75c","vip":1,"c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