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Aladada
2021-03-12

Is the US oil market at risk of collapse? Biden's new regulations may not be so powerful

拜登的能源新政不太可能令美国油市崩溃，但至少令其“重伤”…… 美国总统拜登计划改革在联邦土地和水域开采石油和天然气的许可和租赁，这让美国石油业和一些产油州感到不安。目前，美国政府正在对相关法规进行

Is the US oil market at risk of collapse? Biden's new regulations may not be so powerful

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Biden's new regulations may not be so powerful","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159327652","media":"金十数据","summary":"拜登的能源新政不太可能令美国油市崩溃，但至少令其“重伤”……\n\n美国总统拜登计划改革在联邦土地和水域开采石油和天然气的许可和租赁，这让美国石油业和一些产油州感到不安。\n目前，美国政府正在对相关法规进行","content":"Biden's new energy policy is unlikely to collapse the U.S. oil market, but at least it will \"seriously injure it\"... U.S. President Joe Biden plans to reform licensing and leasing for oil and natural gas extraction on federal lands and waters, which has made the U.S. oil industry and some Oil-producing states are uneasy.Currently, the U.S. government is reviewing relevant regulations. While it's unclear how restrictive the changes will be, industry insiders and analysts are trying to quantify how much U.S. oil production will be affected in the medium to long term.The direct impact may be negligible, but in the medium and long term, the new regulations could have far-reaching implications, not only for U.S. shale oil production and conventional oil production offshore, but also for state oil revenues and budgets.Industry insiders expect the new regulations to have an impact on oil production and taxation in U.S. states, but how much impact will depend on the final regulations and how much progress the industry can make in challenging the new regulations through legal channels.Wood Mackenzie Indicates,The current temporary ban has little impact on oil production.Pablo Prudencio, senior research analyst at WoodMac in charge of 48 U.S. oil supplies, said:\"However, more far-reaching measures may be proposed during the review process, such as higher royalties on new leases or obligations to protect the environment, a ban on the sale of new leases and/or a ban on the issuance of new licenses on existing leases.\" About 6% of U.S. oil production comes from federal lands, so only a small percentage of shale oil production will be directly affected by changes to the new lease licensing process. However, Prudencio says:\"Prohibiting new federal drilling permits on existing leases is a more extreme scenario that puts future supply at risk and reduces future drilling inventories in some areas.\"New regulations will slow Permian production growthPatel, an economist at the Dallas Fed's research unit, said in a note earlier this month,Oil production growth in the U.S. Permian Basin will slow down, and oil and gas activity will shift from New Mexico to Texas, where half of New Mexico's oil production comes from the Permian Basin.According to the reference scenario, if there is little change in leasing, licensing and drilling compared to the first quarter of 2021, byIn December 2025, production in the Permian Basin will increase from 4.3 million barrels per day in 2020 to 5.3 million barrels per day, and production in New Mexico will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from the current total of 1 million barrels per day.Assuming there is no new federal lease agreement but the existing lessor is still obtaining drilling permits,Production in Permian Basin to rise to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2025。 But the Dallas Fed said production in New Mexico would grow by just 100,000 barrels per day.Under the strictest circumstances (no new federal permits or extended permits beginning in 2023),Production in the Permian Basin will still rise, reaching 4.8 million barrels per day by 2025, but production in New Mexico will fall to 700,000 barrels per day, 800,000 barrels per day less than the reference scenario.Major oil-producing states will face huge economic lossesThe change in expected production of shale oil in the Permian Basin is a microcosm of how states with more drilling activity on federal lands will see their oil production decline. New Mexico will be one of the most affected states, with fewer taxes and lower employment rates. The Dallas Fed noted that because\"Production and employment across the basin will gradually shift from federal lands in New Mexico to private and state lands in New Mexico and Texas, with broad economic impacts for the region.\"The American Petroleum Institute (API) said that by 2022,Banning federal leases could cost New Mexico 62,000 jobs, and New Mexico also faces $1.1 billion in lost revenue.According to the Dallas Fed, the fiscal implications for New Mexico will be significant. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020, New Mexico received $2.6 billion in revenue from taxes, royalties and fees in the oil and gas industry, of which $809 million was derived from the state's share of mineral revenue in federal property.Democratic-led New Mexico faces a dilemma:Supporting President Biden's climate policies and restricting federal oil extraction means the state will spend significantly less revenue on education, schools and other government programs.Other states will also be restricted from drilling on federal lands. In Wyoming, for example, the Enhanced Oil Extraction Institute (EORI) at the University of Wyoming said in a report earlier this month that the federal leasing ban would affect 75% of the state's conventional oil fields and 60% of its drillable land. The report said,The policy would limit or potentially prevent the use of 2.9 billion barrels of potentially recoverable oil reserves on federal lands, and the associated $12.9 billion in taxes。Offshore oil production will suffer heavy lossesOnshore oil production will be most affected in states such as Wyoming and New Mexico, but overall, offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico will be most affected by changes in leasing regulations.Economists at the Dallas Fed said:\"We also expect oil production in other basins to be lower than normal expectations, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where nearly all oil and gas activity is managed by the federal government.\" The American Petroleum Institute said in a report last year,U.S. offshore oil production will decline by 44% and offshore natural gas production by 68% by 2030.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>CEO Michael Wirth said on the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call in January of the pause in new leases,\"The risk in the Gulf of Mexico could be greater.\"","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the US oil market at risk of collapse? 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Biden's new regulations may not be so powerful\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n金十数据2021-03-12 18:02\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBiden's new energy policy is unlikely to collapse the U.S. oil market, but at least it will \"seriously injure it\"... U.S. President Joe Biden plans to reform licensing and leasing for oil and natural gas extraction on federal lands and waters, which has made the U.S. oil industry and some Oil-producing states are uneasy.Currently, the U.S. government is reviewing relevant regulations. While it's unclear how restrictive the changes will be, industry insiders and analysts are trying to quantify how much U.S. oil production will be affected in the medium to long term.The direct impact may be negligible, but in the medium and long term, the new regulations could have far-reaching implications, not only for U.S. shale oil production and conventional oil production offshore, but also for state oil revenues and budgets.Industry insiders expect the new regulations to have an impact on oil production and taxation in U.S. states, but how much impact will depend on the final regulations and how much progress the industry can make in challenging the new regulations through legal channels.Wood Mackenzie Indicates,The current temporary ban has little impact on oil production.Pablo Prudencio, senior research analyst at WoodMac in charge of 48 U.S. oil supplies, said:\"However, more far-reaching measures may be proposed during the review process, such as higher royalties on new leases or obligations to protect the environment, a ban on the sale of new leases and/or a ban on the issuance of new licenses on existing leases.\" About 6% of U.S. oil production comes from federal lands, so only a small percentage of shale oil production will be directly affected by changes to the new lease licensing process. However, Prudencio says:\"Prohibiting new federal drilling permits on existing leases is a more extreme scenario that puts future supply at risk and reduces future drilling inventories in some areas.\"New regulations will slow Permian production growthPatel, an economist at the Dallas Fed's research unit, said in a note earlier this month,Oil production growth in the U.S. Permian Basin will slow down, and oil and gas activity will shift from New Mexico to Texas, where half of New Mexico's oil production comes from the Permian Basin.According to the reference scenario, if there is little change in leasing, licensing and drilling compared to the first quarter of 2021, byIn December 2025, production in the Permian Basin will increase from 4.3 million barrels per day in 2020 to 5.3 million barrels per day, and production in New Mexico will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from the current total of 1 million barrels per day.Assuming there is no new federal lease agreement but the existing lessor is still obtaining drilling permits,Production in Permian Basin to rise to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2025。 But the Dallas Fed said production in New Mexico would grow by just 100,000 barrels per day.Under the strictest circumstances (no new federal permits or extended permits beginning in 2023),Production in the Permian Basin will still rise, reaching 4.8 million barrels per day by 2025, but production in New Mexico will fall to 700,000 barrels per day, 800,000 barrels per day less than the reference scenario.Major oil-producing states will face huge economic lossesThe change in expected production of shale oil in the Permian Basin is a microcosm of how states with more drilling activity on federal lands will see their oil production decline. New Mexico will be one of the most affected states, with fewer taxes and lower employment rates. The Dallas Fed noted that because\"Production and employment across the basin will gradually shift from federal lands in New Mexico to private and state lands in New Mexico and Texas, with broad economic impacts for the region.\"The American Petroleum Institute (API) said that by 2022,Banning federal leases could cost New Mexico 62,000 jobs, and New Mexico also faces $1.1 billion in lost revenue.According to the Dallas Fed, the fiscal implications for New Mexico will be significant. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020, New Mexico received $2.6 billion in revenue from taxes, royalties and fees in the oil and gas industry, of which $809 million was derived from the state's share of mineral revenue in federal property.Democratic-led New Mexico faces a dilemma:Supporting President Biden's climate policies and restricting federal oil extraction means the state will spend significantly less revenue on education, schools and other government programs.Other states will also be restricted from drilling on federal lands. In Wyoming, for example, the Enhanced Oil Extraction Institute (EORI) at the University of Wyoming said in a report earlier this month that the federal leasing ban would affect 75% of the state's conventional oil fields and 60% of its drillable land. The report said,The policy would limit or potentially prevent the use of 2.9 billion barrels of potentially recoverable oil reserves on federal lands, and the associated $12.9 billion in taxes。Offshore oil production will suffer heavy lossesOnshore oil production will be most affected in states such as Wyoming and New Mexico, but overall, offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico will be most affected by changes in leasing regulations.Economists at the Dallas Fed said:\"We also expect oil production in other basins to be lower than normal expectations, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, where nearly all oil and gas activity is managed by the federal government.\" The American Petroleum Institute said in a report last year,U.S. offshore oil production will decline by 44% and offshore natural gas production by 68% by 2030.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>CEO Michael Wirth said on the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call in January of the pause in new leases,\"The risk in the Gulf of Mexico could be greater.\"\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71691\">金十数据</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/71691","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159327652","content_text":"拜登的能源新政不太可能令美国油市崩溃，但至少令其“重伤”……\n\n美国总统拜登计划改革在联邦土地和水域开采石油和天然气的许可和租赁，这让美国石油业和一些产油州感到不安。\n目前，美国政府正在对相关法规进行审查。尽管目前尚不清楚这些变化会有多大的限制性，但业内人士和分析师正试图量化美国石油产量在中长期将受到多大影响。\n直接影响或许可以忽略不计，但从中长期来看，新法规可能会产生深远的影响，不仅对美国页岩油生产和近海的常规石油生产有影响，而且各州的石油收入和预算也会受到影响。\n业内人士预计，新法规将对美国各州的石油生产和税收产生影响，但具体会有多大的影响取决于最终落地的法规，以及该行业在通过法律途径挑战新法规方面能取得多大的进展。\nWood Mackenzie表示，目前的临时禁令对石油产量影响不大。\nWoodMac负责美国48个石油供应的高级研究分析师帕布罗•普鲁登西奥（Pablo Prudencio）表示：\n\n “不过，审查过程中可能会提出影响更深远的措施，例如对新租约征收更高的特许权使用费或要求承担保护环境的义务，禁止出售新租约和（或）禁止对现有租约发放新许可证。”\n\n美国约6%的石油产量来自联邦土地，因此只有一小部分页岩油产量会受到新租赁许可程序变化的直接影响。然而，Prudencio表示：\n\n “在现有租约上禁止发放新的联邦钻探许可证是一种更为极端的情况，这将令未来的供应量面临风险，并减少一些地区未来的钻井库存。”\n\n新法规将减缓二叠纪盆地产量增长\n达拉斯联储研究部门经济学家帕特尔（Patel）在本月早些时候的一份报告中表示，美国二叠纪盆地的石油产量增长将放慢脚步，油气活动将从新墨西哥州转向德克萨斯州，新墨西哥州一半的石油产量来自二叠纪盆地。\n根据参考方案，若与2021年第一季度相比，租赁、许可和钻井几乎没有变化，到2025年12月，二叠纪盆地的产量将从2020年的430万桶/日增长到530万桶/日，新墨西哥州的产量将总现在的100万桶/日增长150万桶/日。\n假设没有新的联邦租赁协议，但现有的租赁方仍在获得钻探许可，二叠纪盆地的产量将在2025年升至510万桶/日。但达拉斯联储表示，新墨西哥州的日产量将仅增长10万桶。\n在最严格的情况下（从2023年开始没有新的联邦许可或延期许可），二叠纪盆地的产量仍将上升，到2025年将达到480万桶/日，但新墨西哥州的产量将下降到70万桶/日，比参考方案减少80万桶/日。\n主要产油州将面临巨大经济损失\n二叠纪盆地的页岩油预期产量的变化是一个缩影，说明在联邦土地上有更多钻探活动的州将看到他们的石油产量将如何下降。新墨西哥州将是受影响最严重的州之一，税收减少，就业率下降。达拉斯联储指出，因为“整个盆地的生产和就业将逐渐从新墨西哥州的联邦土地转向新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州的私人和州土地，对该地区产生广泛的经济影响。”\n美国石油协会（API）表示，到2022年，禁止联邦租赁可能会使新墨西哥州失去6.2万个工作岗位，新墨西哥州也将面临11亿美元的收入损失。\n据达拉斯联储称，这对新墨西哥州的财政影响将是巨大的。在截至2020年6月30日的财政年度中，新墨西哥州从石油和天然气行业的税收、特许权使用费和费用中获得了26亿美元的收入，其中8.09亿美元来自该州在联邦财产中所占矿产收入的份额。\n民主党领导的新墨西哥州面临着两难境地：支持拜登总统的气候政策和限制联邦石油开采意味着该州用于教育、学校和其他政府项目的收入将大大减少。\n其他州也将受到在联邦土地上钻探的限制。以怀俄明州为例，怀俄明州大学的强化石油开采研究所（EORI）在本月早些时候的一份报告中表示，联邦租赁禁令将影响该州75%的常规油田和60%的可钻土地。报告称，这项政策将限制或可能阻止联邦土地上的29亿桶潜在可采石油储量的使用，以及相关的129亿美元税收。\n海上石油生产将受重挫\n怀俄明州和新墨西哥州等州的陆上石油生产将受到最大影响，但总体而言，墨西哥湾的近海地区将最大程度地受到租赁法规变化的影响。\n达拉斯联储的经济学家表示：\n\n “我们预计其他盆地的石油产量也会低于正常预期，尤其是墨西哥湾，那里几乎所有的油气活动都由联邦政府管理。”\n\n美国石油学会去年在一份报告中表示，到2030年，美国近海石油产量将下降44%，近海天然气产量将下降68%。\n雪佛龙首席执行官Michael Wirth在1月的第四财季财报电话会议上谈到新租赁暂停时说，\n\n “墨西哥湾的风险可能更大。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}