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2021-03-11

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Just tonight, another key U.S. bond auction, global markets are waiting with bated breath

2月25日的一次美债拍卖后，美股狂泻。历史是否会重演？周三，10年期美国国债将再次进行拍卖，由于这事关美债收益率走势，市场对此屏息凝视。在这次拍卖中，其关键性作用的，可能是来自日本的美债买家。日

Just tonight, another key U.S. bond auction, global markets are waiting with bated breath

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":321832163,"tweetId":"321832163","gmtCreate":1615420747752,"gmtModify":1704782488399,"author":{"id":3558672706395546,"idStr":"3558672706395546","authorId":3558672706395546,"authorIdStr":"3558672706395546","name":"水中月镜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c036ca7cc23db6f3e3d32d87fddb89","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":186,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>=p</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>=p</p></body></html>","text":"=p","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321832163","repostId":2118567964,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2118567964","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615384219,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2118567964?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-10 21:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Just tonight, another key U.S. bond auction, global markets are waiting with bated breath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2118567964","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2月25日的一次美债拍卖后，美股狂泻。历史是否会重演？\n周三，10年期美国国债将再次进行拍卖，由于这事关美债收益率走势，市场对此屏息凝视。\n在这次拍卖中，其关键性作用的，可能是来自日本的美债买家。\n日","content":"<p>After a U.S. bond auction on February 25, U.S. stocks plummeted. Will history repeat itself?</p><p>On Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will be auctioned again. As it is related to the trend of U.S. bond yields, the market is staring at it with bated breath.</p><p>In this auction, its key role may be U.S. bond buyers from Japan.</p><p><h2>Japanese investors matter</h2><b>The market believes that the key to the results of Wednesday's auction is the demand of Japanese investors.</b></p><p>Since June 2019, Japan's U.S. bond holdings have surpassed China's for the first time since May 2017, and has been promoted to the first place. At present, Japan is still the largest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>CANADA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Ben Jeffery, a U.S. fixed-income market analyst, said the weak demand at the 7-year U.S. Treasury auction late last month was partly due to reduced purchases in Japan.</b></p><p>On February 25, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $62 billion in seven-year Treasury Bond. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indicator to measure demand, was only 2.04, a record low and far lower than the previous six auctions. The average subscription multiple is 2.35.</p><p>Jeffery says:</p><p>The auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will continue the same trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Fixed income analyst Meghan Swiber said:</p><p>We believe that as U.S. bond yields rise, Japanese investors and pension funds from other countries will buy U.S. bonds because U.S. bonds are indeed more attractive than the fixed income markets of these countries. It is worth noting that recently, Japan has also been the main force in selling U.S. debt.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to statistics, Japan changed from a net buyer of foreign bonds to a net seller in February. In the last two weeks of February, Japan's net selling of overseas bonds (mainly U.S. bonds) totaled 3.6 trillion yen, the fastest ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eceb3469cea9db552a8efb409268e9e2\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among them, the Japanese banking industry is the main force in this wave of selling U.S. debt.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13405f269fee75decd5df1775327f235\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why are Japanese investors selling U.S. debt frantically recently?</p><p>Jeffery analyzed that this is related to Japan's fiscal year approaching March 31.</p><p><h2>What does this auction mean for the market?</h2><b>On February 25, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $62 billion in 7-year Treasury Bond</b>, this batch of auctions<b>The 7-year Treasury Bond won the bid rate of 1.195%, the highest bid-off yield since February.</b>At that time, some commentators said that this meant that no foreign investors wanted American Treasury Bond.<b>This is definitely the most embarrassing and disastrous moment of the 7-year U.S. Treasury auction in years.</b></p><p>After the results of the 7-year U.S. bond auction were released at that time, the U.S. bond market experienced a flash crash, and the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities began to \"fly\" mode. The 10-year yield continuously rose above the 1.5% and 1.6% barriers.<b>It skyrocketed 23 basis points that day. U.S. technology stocks also fell sharply, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.52% that day.</b></p><p>The Financial Times quoted Gennadiy Goldberg, interest rate strategist at TD Securities, as saying,<b>Investors will be on pins and needles until the auction of a new batch of U.S. bonds is completed.</b>He mentioned:</p><p><b>The fear is that one of these batches will turn out as bad as the last 7-year, or worse, triggering a new sell-off</b>... which leads to a new round of market turmoil, and then another rush to escape. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $58 billion of three-year Treasury Bond with a winning bid rate of 0.355%, and the bid multiple increased from 2.391 to 2.689, the highest level since June 2018. The three-year U.S. bond yield fell by 1.08 basis points in the short term, hitting a minimum of 0.3283%, and the overall intraday fluctuation was less than 2.00 basis points.</p><p>Regarding Wednesday's U.S. bond auction, Double Line portfolio manager Gregory Whiteley said:</p><p>I think this auction will have a significant impact on market sentiment in the coming weeks.<b>Analysts at NatWest in the UK predicted in a report that Wednesday's 10-year U.S. bond auction and the subsequent 30-year U.S. bond auction may lead to \"another surge in yields in the middle of the week.\"</b></p><p>NatWest said Tuesday's $58 billion U.S. three-year Treasury Bond auction was \"not good enough to reassure the market about the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction.\"</p><p>Last year, the U.S. Treasury Department significantly increased its bond issuance to fund its economic stimulus plan.</p><p>According to SIFMA, the total amount of new bonds issued by the U.S. government in 2020 was about $3.6 trillion, compared to $2.9 trillion in 2019. ING said that taking into account the upcoming US $1.9 trillion fiscal plan in the United States, it is expected that the total amount of Treasury Bond issued by the United States this year will reach US $4 trillion.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just tonight, another key U.S. bond auction, global markets are waiting with bated breath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust tonight, another key U.S. bond auction, global markets are waiting with bated breath\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-10 21:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a U.S. bond auction on February 25, U.S. stocks plummeted. Will history repeat itself?</p><p>On Wednesday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond will be auctioned again. As it is related to the trend of U.S. bond yields, the market is staring at it with bated breath.</p><p>In this auction, its key role may be U.S. bond buyers from Japan.</p><p><h2>Japanese investors matter</h2><b>The market believes that the key to the results of Wednesday's auction is the demand of Japanese investors.</b></p><p>Since June 2019, Japan's U.S. bond holdings have surpassed China's for the first time since May 2017, and has been promoted to the first place. At present, Japan is still the largest foreign holder of U.S. government bonds.</p><p><b>CANADA<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BMO\">Bank of Montreal</a>Ben Jeffery, a U.S. fixed-income market analyst, said the weak demand at the 7-year U.S. Treasury auction late last month was partly due to reduced purchases in Japan.</b></p><p>On February 25, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $62 billion in seven-year Treasury Bond. The bid-to-cover ratio, an indicator to measure demand, was only 2.04, a record low and far lower than the previous six auctions. The average subscription multiple is 2.35.</p><p>Jeffery says:</p><p>The auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will continue the same trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Fixed income analyst Meghan Swiber said:</p><p>We believe that as U.S. bond yields rise, Japanese investors and pension funds from other countries will buy U.S. bonds because U.S. bonds are indeed more attractive than the fixed income markets of these countries. It is worth noting that recently, Japan has also been the main force in selling U.S. debt.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>According to statistics, Japan changed from a net buyer of foreign bonds to a net seller in February. In the last two weeks of February, Japan's net selling of overseas bonds (mainly U.S. bonds) totaled 3.6 trillion yen, the fastest ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eceb3469cea9db552a8efb409268e9e2\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Among them, the Japanese banking industry is the main force in this wave of selling U.S. debt.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13405f269fee75decd5df1775327f235\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Why are Japanese investors selling U.S. debt frantically recently?</p><p>Jeffery analyzed that this is related to Japan's fiscal year approaching March 31.</p><p><h2>What does this auction mean for the market?</h2><b>On February 25, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $62 billion in 7-year Treasury Bond</b>, this batch of auctions<b>The 7-year Treasury Bond won the bid rate of 1.195%, the highest bid-off yield since February.</b>At that time, some commentators said that this meant that no foreign investors wanted American Treasury Bond.<b>This is definitely the most embarrassing and disastrous moment of the 7-year U.S. Treasury auction in years.</b></p><p>After the results of the 7-year U.S. bond auction were released at that time, the U.S. bond market experienced a flash crash, and the yields of U.S. bonds of various maturities began to \"fly\" mode. The 10-year yield continuously rose above the 1.5% and 1.6% barriers.<b>It skyrocketed 23 basis points that day. U.S. technology stocks also fell sharply, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3.52% that day.</b></p><p>The Financial Times quoted Gennadiy Goldberg, interest rate strategist at TD Securities, as saying,<b>Investors will be on pins and needles until the auction of a new batch of U.S. bonds is completed.</b>He mentioned:</p><p><b>The fear is that one of these batches will turn out as bad as the last 7-year, or worse, triggering a new sell-off</b>... which leads to a new round of market turmoil, and then another rush to escape. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned $58 billion of three-year Treasury Bond with a winning bid rate of 0.355%, and the bid multiple increased from 2.391 to 2.689, the highest level since June 2018. The three-year U.S. bond yield fell by 1.08 basis points in the short term, hitting a minimum of 0.3283%, and the overall intraday fluctuation was less than 2.00 basis points.</p><p>Regarding Wednesday's U.S. bond auction, Double Line portfolio manager Gregory Whiteley said:</p><p>I think this auction will have a significant impact on market sentiment in the coming weeks.<b>Analysts at NatWest in the UK predicted in a report that Wednesday's 10-year U.S. bond auction and the subsequent 30-year U.S. bond auction may lead to \"another surge in yields in the middle of the week.\"</b></p><p>NatWest said Tuesday's $58 billion U.S. three-year Treasury Bond auction was \"not good enough to reassure the market about the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction.\"</p><p>Last year, the U.S. Treasury Department significantly increased its bond issuance to fund its economic stimulus plan.</p><p>According to SIFMA, the total amount of new bonds issued by the U.S. government in 2020 was about $3.6 trillion, compared to $2.9 trillion in 2019. ING said that taking into account the upcoming US $1.9 trillion fiscal plan in the United States, it is expected that the total amount of Treasury Bond issued by the United States this year will reach US $4 trillion.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623180\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b889d823b16eb88fde7821485a6ea1","relate_stocks":{"BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3623180","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2118567964","content_text":"2月25日的一次美债拍卖后，美股狂泻。历史是否会重演？\n周三，10年期美国国债将再次进行拍卖，由于这事关美债收益率走势，市场对此屏息凝视。\n在这次拍卖中，其关键性作用的，可能是来自日本的美债买家。\n日本投资者举足轻重\n市场认为，周三拍卖结果好坏的关键，是日本投资者的需求。\n2019年6月起，日本的美债持仓规模自2017年5月来首次超越中国，晋升为第一位。目前，日本依然是美国政府债券的最大外国持有者。\n加拿大蒙特利尔银行的美国固收市场分析师Ben Jeffery说，上月底的7年期美债拍卖需求疲软的部分原因就是日本的购买量减少。\n在2月25日，美国财政部拍卖620亿美元的7年期国债，衡量需求的指标投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）仅为2.04，创历史新低，并远低于此前六次拍卖的认购倍数均值2.35。\nJeffery说：\n\n 10年期美债的拍卖会延续同样的趋势。\n\n美国银行固收分析师Meghan Swiber称：\n\n 我们认为，随着美债收益率上升，日本投资者和其他国家的养老基金都会买入美债，因为相较于这些国家的固收市场而言，美债的确更有吸引力。\n\n值得注意的是，最近，日本也是抛售美债的主力。\n据摩根大通统计，日本在2月从外国债券的净买家转变为净卖家。2月的最后两周，日本净抛售海外债券（主要是美债）总额达3.6万亿日元，为有史以来最快。\n\n其中，日本银行业又是这次抛售美债大潮中的主力。\n\n为什么最近日本投资者疯狂抛售美债？\nJeffery分析称，这和日本临近3月31日的财政年底相关。\n这次拍卖对市场意味着什么？\n2月25日，美国财政部拍卖620亿美元的7年期国债，这一批标售的7年期国债得标利率为1.195%，是2月以来最高的截标收益率。当时有评论称，这意味没有外国投资者想要美国国债了，这绝对堪称多年来7年期美债拍卖的最尴尬和最具灾难性的时刻。\n在当时7年期美债标售结果出炉后，美债市场出现闪崩，各期限美债收益率开启“放飞”模式，10年期收益率连续涨破1.5%和1.6%两道关口，当天暴涨23个基点。美国科技股同样重挫，纳指当天暴跌3.52%。\n英国《金融时报》援引TD Securities利率策略师Gennadiy Goldberg称，在新一批美债拍卖完成之前，投资者都会如坐针毡。他提到：\n\n人们担心的是，其中某一批的拍卖结果会和上次7年期一样糟糕，或者更坏，从而引发新一轮的抛售……进而导致新一轮市场动荡，然后就是又一次的争相出逃。\n\n周二，美国财政部拍卖580亿美元三年期国债，得标利率0.355%，投标倍数从2.391增至2.689，为2018年6月以来的最高水平。三年期美债收益率短线下挫1.08个基点，最低触及0.3283%，日内整体波动幅度不足2.00个基点。\n对于本周三的美债拍卖，Double Line投资组合经理Gregory Whiteley称：\n\n 我认为这次拍卖会，将会对未来几周内的市场情绪产生重大影响。\n\n英国NatWest的分析师在一份报告中预测，周三的10年期美债拍卖以及随后的30年期美债拍卖或将导致“收益率在周中再一次飙升”。\nNatWest表示，周二的580亿美元的美国三年期国债拍卖“没有好到让市场对10年期美债拍卖放心的程度”。\n去年，美国财政部大幅增加了债券发行，以资助经济刺激计划。\n根据SIFMA的数据，2020年美国政府新发行的债券总量约为3.6万亿美元，而2019年为2.9万亿美元。 ING表示，考虑到美国即将落地的1.9万亿美元财政计划，预计今年美国发行的国债总量将达到4万亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"TLT":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"BND":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2308,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}