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阿麦小乔
2021-06-15

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Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly

本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策

Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":184208975,"tweetId":"184208975","gmtCreate":1623714799097,"gmtModify":1704209200673,"author":{"id":3573267026077628,"idStr":"3573267026077628","authorId":3573267026077628,"authorIdStr":"3573267026077628","name":"阿麦小乔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/234561fa04246ad0d2b52dbc39a5b523","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":10,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>666</body></html>","text":"666","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184208975","repostId":1123321973,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.//The super central bank is coming//This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.See the chart below for the specific schedule:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Fed going to turn against it? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Await Solemnly\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nWind万得 \n2021-06-14 13:37\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThis week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate decisions.U.S. inflation has reached 5% in May, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a reduction in QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.//The super central bank is coming//This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce interest rate decisions.Among them, the most concerned one is the Federal Reserve.At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; In half an hour, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.See the chart below for the specific schedule:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wind combed and found that judging from current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Bank, the Turkish Central Bank and the Egyptian Central Bank will most likely choose to maintain the existing benchmark interest rate level unchanged.The Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, and the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norges central bank may hint at a rate hike in September this year.//Inflation soars, the Fed will change its face?  //Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal to tighten monetary policy globally.Wind queried various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year at the earliest, while the more common view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Fed's argument that \"inflation is only temporary.\"\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Federal Reserve will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide fluctuations.The market is now waiting for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and the volatility of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.//US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years//If the Fed changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time showed that,CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise by 4.7%, and the previous value rose by 4.2%, the largest year-on-year increase in the past 13 years。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Picture from Wind Financial Terminal EDB Module)The annual inflation gauge got a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets are now expecting this so-called base effect to push up inflation numbers for May and June significantly into the fall.According to a number of recent data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, as of April, house prices across the United States are soaring.The S&P Schiller House Price Index rose 13.2% in March compared with the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. The housing price index of 90% cities in the United States, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed that inflationary pressures in the United States increased further. According to the report, from the beginning of April to the end of May, economic activities in various jurisdictions in the United States expanded moderately at a faster rate. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and selling prices may continue to rise in the coming months.//Inflation data is released, the market is not panicking//However, it is worth noting that the U.S. inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 an ounce; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, with the July U.S. oil contract rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures falling 0.85%.One of the reasons why market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight. The market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to suggest when it may begin scaling back its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue to implement the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.//Ren Zeping: Be wary of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet risks//Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, U.S. inflation continued to rise, posing a real threat to emerging markets.Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising inflation and yields in the United States will push up borrowing costs in developing countries. In addition,The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will lead to outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency devaluation.According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than the average borrowing cost. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet in a research report released on June 11.He said that according to market expectations, the vaccination rate in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflows from new markets deserve vigilance.He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.If one day the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:First, the first quarter is the economic high point, and there will be a marginal slowdown in the second and third quarters.Second, the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over, and the high point is approaching.Third, the market's expectations and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1814,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}