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2021-07-24

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The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?

美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。

The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! What key points should we focus on?

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What key points should we focus on?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153809933","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. Although the stock market is still optimistic at present, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. In addition to the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, what is more important is whether the Fed has the details of tapering policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear during his recent testimony before Congress that he still sees inflationary pressures as largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an impending policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>But ING strategists talked about the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference in late August, where Fed officials will begin preparing for tapering quantitative easing and refine it further at the FOMC meeting in September, before formally announcing it in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as fast as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many enterprises urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Despite this, the Fed is facing tightening pressure, such as tapering QE. But most people still don't expect the Fed to announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will put the details of tapering \"on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest the Fed's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines were widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would start hiring workers in droves. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has generally been unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment forces the Federal Reserve to consider reducing some of the loose stimulus policies that have been implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed that even though wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. The consumer price index rose 5.4% in June compared to a year earlier, meaning inflation-adjusted earnings fell more than 2%. Even the core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which excludes volatility in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be overly optimistic. Inflation is likely to keep rising for the rest of the year. However, the Fed may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said the Fed has made so many mistakes in the past that he is willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a modest period of time before tightening.</p><p>Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting, though, showed increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still be years away.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about tapering bond purchase discussions that started in June. The discussion around the issue is likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole conference in August, as the Fed's current signals still favor earlier policy normalization. It talked about Chairman Powell's likelihood of suggesting that while discussions about tapering quantitative easing have begun, there is still a lot of time before they need to draw conclusions on the actions they will take.</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's blockbuster July meeting is coming next week! 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What key points should we focus on?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 13:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting on July 27th and 28th. Although the stock market is still optimistic at present, it will meet in an uneasy atmosphere. In addition to the market's urgent need to know Powell's current attitude, what is more important is whether the Fed has the details of tapering policy.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear during his recent testimony before Congress that he still sees inflationary pressures as largely temporary and that there is no urgent need to signal an impending policy shift. After all, employment levels are still more than 6 million lower than before the pandemic began, and the latest COVID-19 pandemic adds another layer of uncertainty that can be used to justify inaction.</p><p>But ING strategists talked about the upcoming Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference in late August, where Fed officials will begin preparing for tapering quantitative easing and refine it further at the FOMC meeting in September, before formally announcing it in December.</p><p>The economy is growing, although perhaps not as fast as some expected earlier this year. In addition, many enterprises urgently need workers, but millions of people are still unemployed. In recent weeks, vaccination rates have stagnated and the number of infections has risen. Despite this, the Fed is facing tightening pressure, such as tapering QE. But most people still don't expect the Fed to announce any new measures at next week's meeting, but the focus is on whether Powell will put the details of tapering \"on the table\" for discussion.</p><p>Labor market signs suggest the Fed's easing is far from over. Economists and market watchers had hoped that by April, when vaccines were widely available and many economic restrictions began to be lifted, employers would start hiring workers in droves. However, the reality is far less optimistic. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll growth has generally been unstable in recent months.</p><p>On the other hand, the current inflationary environment forces the Federal Reserve to consider reducing some of the loose stimulus policies that have been implemented. Three-month moving average data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed that even though wages were 3.2% higher in June than a year earlier, inflation rose even higher. The consumer price index rose 5.4% in June compared to a year earlier, meaning inflation-adjusted earnings fell more than 2%. Even the core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which excludes volatility in food and energy prices, rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier.</p><p>In fact, a month ago, the Fed raised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 3% from 2.2% in March, but even that may be overly optimistic. Inflation is likely to keep rising for the rest of the year. However, the Fed may not be in a hurry to intervene. In a speech last August, Powell said the Fed has made so many mistakes in the past that he is willing to let prices exceed the central bank's 2% target for a modest period of time before tightening.</p><p>Minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting, though, showed increased interest in discussing tapering bond purchases. The Fed is currently buying $120 billion worth of bonds every month, but a short-term rate hike may still be years away.</p><p>ING strategists believe that although the Federal Reserve is not expected to change policy at its July meeting, the market may hear more news about tapering bond purchase discussions that started in June. The discussion around the issue is likely to heat up at the Jackson Hole conference in August, as the Fed's current signals still favor earlier policy normalization. It talked about Chairman Powell's likelihood of suggesting that while discussions about tapering quantitative easing have begun, there is still a lot of time before they need to draw conclusions on the actions they will take.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98a01b74d12bd250d548a4cdbf0d9091","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/520599.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2153809933","content_text":"美联储于7月27日和28日召开货币政策会议，虽然股市目前情绪还较乐观，它将在一种不安的气氛中开会。除了市场急需知道鲍威尔目前的态度，更重要的是美联储是否已经有了缩减政策细节。\n美联储主席鲍威尔最近在国会作证时明确表示，他仍然认为通胀压力在很大程度上是暂时的，没有任何迫切需要发出政策即将转变的信号。毕竟，就业水平仍比疫情开始前低600多万，而最新的新冠疫情增加了另一层不确定性，可以用来为不采取行动辩护。\n但是ING策略师谈到即将在8月底举行的杰克逊霍尔美联储会议(Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Conference)上，美联储官员将开始为缩减量化宽松做准备，并在9月份的FOMC会议上进一步细化，然后在12月份正式宣布。\n经济正在增长，尽管可能没有今年早些时候一些人预期的那么快。此外许多企业迫切需要工人，但仍有数百万人失业。最近几周，疫苗接种率停滞不前，感染病例数量上升。尽管如此美联储正面临着收紧压力，如缩减QE。但大部分人还是预计美联储不会在下周会议上宣布任何新举措，但焦点是鲍威尔是否会把缩减细节“摆上桌面”来讨论。\n劳动力市场迹象暗示美联储的宽松远没有结束。经济学家和市场观察人士曾希望，到4月份疫苗广泛普及、许多经济限制开始解除的时候，雇主将开始大批雇佣工人。然而，现实却远没有这么乐观。根据美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的最新数据显示非农增速在最近数月总体不是很稳定。\n另外一方面，当下通胀环境又让美联储不得不考虑缩减一些已经实施的宽松刺激政策。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的三个月移动平均数据显示，尽管6月份的工资比去年同期高出3.2%，但通货膨胀率却上升得更高。与去年同期相比，6月份消费者价格指数增长了5.4%，这意味着经通胀调整后的收入下降了2%以上。即便是美联储青睐的剔除食品和能源价格波动的核心个人消费支出(Core PCE)指标，5月份也较上年同期上涨了3.4%。\n事实上，一个月前，美联储将2021年的通胀预期从3月份的2.2%上调至3%，但即便如此也可能过于乐观。在今年余下的时间里，通胀可能会持续上升。不过，美联储也未必会不急于介入。在去年8月的一次讲话中，鲍威尔表示，美联储在过去犯了太多的错误，他愿意在收紧之前，让价格在一段适度的时间内超过央行2%的目标。\n不过，美联储最近一次会议的纪要显示，人们对讨论缩减债券购买规模的兴趣有所增加。美联储目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券，但短期加息可能仍需数年时间。\nING策略师认为尽管美联储预计在7月份的会议上不会改变政策，但市场可能会听到更多有关6月份开始的缩减购债讨论的消息。在8月份的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)会议上，围绕这一问题的讨论可能会升温，因为美联储目前发出的信号仍倾向于更早的政策正常化。其谈到鲍威尔主席可能会暗示，虽然有关缩减量化宽松的讨论已经开始，但在他们需要就他们将采取的行动得出结论之前，还有很多时间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QID":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1825,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}