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2021-06-16

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Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet invest as it approaches?

年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的

Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. How should shrinking balance sheet invest as it approaches?

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U.S. markets seem to agree with this, and bond yields have peaked and fallen as a result,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley predicts that inflation expectations may have peaked. 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How should shrinking balance sheet invest as it approaches?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>At the beginning of the year, the rotation speed from growth to cycle began to slow down, and institutions believe that this period should be more balanced. Why Has U.S. Inflation Data Hit A 13-Year High Still Haven't Shaken Investor Sentiment? Why did U.S. bond yields fall instead of rising? How should I invest as the tightening cycle approaches? These are all huge questions lingering in the minds of investors recently. Morgan Stanley recently said that economic growth and inflation are expected to remain quite strong next year. However, the first quarter of this year experienced unusually strong demand, which may mark the peak of the rising rate of growth and inflation. U.S. markets seem to agree with this, and bond yields have peaked and fallen as a result,...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101082673.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134804844","content_text":"年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n\n为何美国通胀数据创下13年新高仍未动摇投资者情绪？美债收益率为何不涨反跌？紧缩周期临近应该怎么投？这些都是盘桓在近期投资者心中的巨大疑问。\n摩根士丹利最新表示，明年经济增长和通胀预计仍将相当强劲。然而，今年第一季度经历了异常旺盛的需求，可能标志着增长和通胀的上升速率已达峰值。美国市场似乎也认同这一点，债券收益率因此触顶回落，一些周期性较强的股票也出现盘整。在一季度盈利大幅上修后，大摩现在认为未来继续上修的空间有限，毕竟一季度发生的一些事情未来不太会重复——经济重启叠加巨大的财政刺激带动了消费，加密市场泡沫也强化了财富效应。\n市场预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题。随着紧缩周期不断临近，投资策略也不同于早周期，盈利增速将成主要驱动力。年初从成长到周期的轮动速度开始放缓，机构认为这一时期更应该均衡配置。\n通胀预期可能触顶\n数据显示，美国5月整体CPI同比大涨5%，超过预期的4.7%，增速创2008年8月以来最高；剔除不稳定的食品与能源价格的核心CPI年率达3.8%，同样超过市场预期的3.5%，增速创1992年以来新高。\n\n美国整体通胀率。来源：Wind，美国劳工部\n然而，在6月10日上述数据发布后，10年期美债收益率不涨反跌，收盘仅报1.454%。美股也照涨不误，标普500指数上周五收于4247.44点，距离突破历史新高的4249.74点仅一步之遥。\n大摩认为，这背后的原因可能在于，通胀预期或已经近乎见顶。\n摩根士丹利首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael J Wilson）对记者表示，通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场此前已变得非常拥挤，特别是在零售市场，因此无论通胀数据结果如何，回调的时机已经成熟；盈亏平衡通胀率已经反映了市场对通胀的乐观预期，达到10年高点；此外，企业和消费者调查都表明，他们对通胀的预期发生了变化，认为通胀是更持续性的而非间歇性的，这一点很重要，因为预期可以导致行为变化。\n“尽管所有这些指标都大幅走高，但它们似乎也已见顶，10年期国债名义收益率和盈亏平衡收益率已触顶回落。这可能是一个早期信号，表明后续经济增长和通胀都可能不及目前过高的预期。”威尔逊称。\n影响这一预期的关键仍和需求水平有关。一季度高达1.9万亿美元的财政刺激拉动了消费，叠加加密货币扩张又带来了近1万亿美元的财富效应。但机构认为，这两种情况都不太可能在二、三季度重演，这也会逐步体现在经济增速和通胀数据上。\n从名义利率拆解来看，2月中旬之前，美债收益率快速攀升主要受通胀预期回升驱动。疫情后美国经济加速复苏，叠加拜登政府推岀的一轮轮大规模财政刺激，通胀预期不断升温，彼时实际利率受疫情反复等因素的影响持续磨底。\n在突破1.3%后，通胀预期趋于缓和，实际利率替代通胀预期成为推动美债收益率快速上行的核心因素，这也意味着彼时市场的关注点更多落在经济数据的改善上。近期美债收益率的下行，更多则源于通胀预期和实际利率的同步走弱。隐含通胀预期从5月峰值下降近19BP，与CPI连续两个月的大幅上涨形成了鲜明对比。显然，美联储官员以及美国财长耶伦关于“通胀上升是暂时的”的说法终于让市场开始买账了，投资者开始相信，供给短缺造成的涨价将会缓解，且服务性需求的攀升也不可能一直持续下去。\n\n另一些因素可能也在推动收益率下行。景顺首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper对记者表示，债市正在对某些国家的新冠肺炎疫情未能受控的担忧做出反应，尤其是在更令人担忧的Delta变异病毒株迅速传播的情况下，这可能会抑制经济增长。Delta变异病毒株占英国新病例的90%，并且很可能成为美国的主要毒株；此外，美国以外的投资者仍被美国国债所吸引，特别是考虑到欧元区的利率非常低。上周的一个催化剂是美元走软，这刺激了外国购买美国政府债券。\n紧缩周期前夕应均衡配置\n不过，通胀预期触顶并不代表通胀会很快下行，更不代表全球央行尤其是美联储永远不“收水”。\nKristina Hooper预计，本周举行的美联储议息会议将开始讨论缩减买债规模的问题，可能会在夏末的杰克逊·霍尔会议（Jackson Hole）上宣布缩表时间点，并于秋季开始实行。但市场可能还没有准备好接受这个消息，预计美债收益率可能在下半年上升。\n历史数据也显示，即使在经济增长动能见顶放缓、流动性边际收紧的时期，股市表现仍可能保持良好，盈利增长是驱动股价攀升的关键。当然回报往往会弱于经济强劲增长的时期。在行业配置上，比起在上一个阶段侧重于顺周期板块的配置，在当前的中周期，行业配置就需要在长期可持续成长和顺周期板块中求取平衡。\n年初以来，从成长到价值的板块轮动加速。但事实上，5月以来，早周期板块相较于标普500的表现已明显触顶回落，这也和美债收益率触顶回落的时间点吻合。\n\n大摩认为，在成长（growth）和价值/周期性行业（value）之间，后疫情时代的每股收益驱动因素将更加均衡，消费者服务、运输、能源和资本物品等板块预计将成为价值/周期板块的重要增长驱动力，这和过去两年有较大不同，当时每股收益增长主要集中在科技和通信服务。\n未来，更高的利润率预期主要是由科技、互联网和制药行业推动的。就不同板块对整体营业利润的贡献来看，科技公司仍占主导。具体而言，传媒和娱乐行业(以谷歌和脸书主导）的利润增长几乎占预期利润增长的四分之一，软件/服务占17%，零售服务占16%（其中亚马逊一家公司就贡献了近三分之二），半导体占12%，科技硬件占10%，制药占11%。\n之所以这一时期要均衡配置，也是因为从绝对角度看，大摩认为预期利润率涨幅最大的是科技股和一些周期性行业，部分周期性行业在经历了上半年的大涨后，后续行情仍有望延续，包括汽车、耐用消费品/服装、多元金融(资管公司、投行、经纪公司)、能源和材料等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}