One day down three day up, ?

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大牛林
2021-06-28

One day down three day up, ?

U.S. stocks are not bearish VS a 15% correction! Well-known banks predict U.S. and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year

美股今年迄今取得较大涨幅，市场关注美联储通胀及加息表态，港股今年迄今经历“过山车式”走势，大行对于下半年表现预期不一，有哪些需要关注的？美股下半年展望上周美股大幅反弹，纳指及标普500指数指数均刷新

U.S. stocks are not bearish VS a 15% correction! Well-known banks predict U.S. and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year

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Well-known banks predict U.S. and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180159838","media":"美港电讯APP","summary":"美股今年迄今取得较大涨幅，市场关注美联储通胀及加息表态，港股今年迄今经历“过山车式”走势，大行对于下半年表现预期不一，有哪些需要关注的？美股下半年展望\n上周美股大幅反弹，纳指及标普500指数指数均刷新","content":"U.S. stocks have achieved large gains so far this year. The market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's inflation and rate hike's statement. Hong Kong stocks have experienced a \"roller coaster\" trend so far this year. Major banks have different expectations for performance in the second half of the year. What needs to be paid attention to?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e042b7f2477eb321a5543ae792f38\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"656\">U.S. stock outlook for the second half of the yearU.S. stocks rebounded sharply last week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes both hitting record highs. Benefiting from the economic recovery, U.S. stocks have achieved relatively large gains so far in 2021. The Dow has risen by 12.51%, the Nasdaq has risen by 11.42%, and the S&P 500 has risen by 13.97%. The market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's statement on inflation and rate hike. Major banks have different expectations for the trend in the second half of the year. Which sectors deserve attention?Credit Suisse: Stocks Will Outperform Other AssetsCredit Suisse expects global growth to accelerate in the coming months as countries gradually reopen their economies. In the process, the stock market will outperform other assets. Credit Suisse wrote in its outlook strategy report for the second half of the year that the global economy is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in 2021, and the global economic growth rate will reach 4% in 2022. Growth is mainly driven by the advancement of vaccination, fiscal stimulus and the recovery of the broader services industry.Ray Farris, chief investment officer of Credit Suisse South Asia, said the economic expansion could lead to a sharp recovery in global earnings growth, boosting stocks. He told the media: \"We want stocks to become an outperforming asset class in the next six months to one year. As long as earnings continue to keep an upward trend, history shows that the stock market will climb all the way. Maybe there will be constant adjustments in this process, but adjustments are opportunities.\"In terms of stock markets, Credit Suisse said that it prefers to invest in cyclical industries such as finance and materials, especially cyclical stocks in Europe. European cyclical stocks are expected to make huge profits like cyclical stocks in U.S. stocks, but valuations are at low levels in decades, the bank said.Morgan Stanley: Bullish on Staples, Healthcare and Raw Materials StocksJudging from the experience of mid-cycle transition in the past, Morgan Stanley believes that U.S. stocks will undergo a correction of about 15%. The bank said the consensus estimate for next year is now above what its analysts have predicted to be achievable since the recovery began after its most upbeat quarterly earnings revision ever. More specifically, given inflation and tax headwinds, the bank believes margin estimates are too high, and the market should start factoring in these factors by lowering valuations.Driven by increased infrastructure spending, the bank downgraded the ratings of related companies. In its view, much of the infrastructure spending has been reasonably priced, and such projects often take longer to produce results. Additionally, many industrial businesses will be the most affected by rising inflation and labor shortages in their supply chains. Instead, the bank continues to favor financial stocks and ingredients stocks as a way to combat rising inflation. Healthcare services companies have lower valuations and greater pent-up demand compared to tech stocks.Morgan Stanley is still bullish on staples, healthcare and raw materials stocks rather than technology stocks, discretionary and industrial stocks. Morgan Stanley also continues to be optimistic about bank stocks, believing that they are the best way to deal with inflation, and recommends avoiding semiconductors, retailers, construction materials and other representative industries in the early cycle. Finally, looking back at the portfolio as a whole, finding a reasonable valuation for the company's value remains an important consideration.CITIC Securities: Tax increase is the biggest risk for US stocks in the second half of the yearThe G7 finance ministers' meeting on June 5th announced that it supported the proposal of imposing a global minimum tax rate of 15%. However, we judge that if this proposal cannot be introduced within the framework of OECD or G20, it is expected to have a limited impact on the tax burden of multinational enterprises. However, if Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: 1) The increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income will be affected. The impact is expected to be the biggest; 2) If the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investor selling, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed; 3) Since World War II, there has never been a joint increase in personal income tax, corporate income tax, and capital gains tax in American history. Therefore, if the United States unilaterally raises tax rates, it may lead to medium and long-term domestic capital outflows.Against the background of the continuous increase in vaccination rates, the global economy is expected to maintain a restart trend in the second half of this year. The price pressure caused by short-term \"demand normalization\" vs. \"supply bottleneck\" will also gradually subside. For the United States, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, given that the current high valuation of the S&P 500 has overdrawn the positive fundamentals beyond expectations, the release of the Taper signal and Biden's tax increase will be implemented in August and September respectively, which may mean that the U.S. stocks boosted by \"retail investors plus leverage\" since February this year will face a concentrated outbreak of risks in the third quarter.Huifeng International Development: The index is expected to reach 4,200 points to 4,300 points by the end of the yearZhang Yufeng, director of Huifeng International Development, said that due to favorable factors such as vaccination and economic restart, he is optimistic about the performance of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, and the index is expected to reach 4,200 to 4,300 points by the end of the year. Despite the recent rise in inflation expectations in the United States and the recent hawkish release by the Federal Reserve, he believes that if you are not short-term investors, you do not need to take these factors too seriously. Everyone will be sensitive to rate hike and inflation news, but the Fed's remarks can actually change at any time. The most important thing when buying US stocks is to pay attention to the future development of the company.Against the backdrop of economic recovery, we are optimistic about financial stocks and health care sectors. Due to the current increase in capital in the market, it is noted that financial activities such as SPEC and IPO in the United States have been active since May, coupled with the emergence of the concept of integrating artificial intelligence technology in the financial industry, which will greatly accelerate the development of the industry.In the first half of the year, there was a phenomenon of sector rotation in the U.S. stock market. Many technology stocks showed discounts in their valuations, but they are still optimistic about technology stocks in the long run, and not the entire sector has been dragged down. Some large technology stocks, such as Google A and Amazon, performed Not bad, mainly small and medium-sized technology stocks are affected. Looking forward to the second half of the year, a number of technology stocks will be listed, which is expected to stimulate the atmosphere of the technology sector, thus improving the performance of this sector.Industrial Securities: U.S. stocks are not a bear market, but vulnerability and volatility have increased, and growth is expected to outperformThe research report pointed out that the U.S. economy may enter a \"quasi-stagflation\" in the second half of the year, with the economy weakening and inflation fluctuating at high levels. The probability of a bear market in the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year is small, and the probability of continuing the market through shocks is high. The liquidity environment in Europe and the United States is still loose, economic growth is slowing down but still resilient, and the impact of Taper and tax increases is still in the expected stage.Growth stocks supported by fundamentals in the U.S. stock market are expected to outperform again. The valuation of U.S. stock growth leaders represented by FAANGs is not high, which is expected to stabilize popularity. Secondly, U.S. bond yields will remain range-bound in the second half of the year, which is different from the rapid increase in the first half of the year. Therefore, the release of valuation risks for growth stocks has come to an end. In addition, the performance growth in the second half of the year turned to endogenous drive. The cyclical value style of U.S. stocks has benefited from cyclical recovery in the past six months and has significantly outperformed. In the second half of the year, it will be under pressure as the momentum of the U.S. inventory cycle weakens. Growth stocks will differentiate, and growth stocks with long-term endogenous growth momentum will start a new upward trend. However, thematic growth stocks or high-valuation sectors that have overdrawn high growth expectations will still be abandoned.Outlook for Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the yearLast week, Hong Kong stocks experienced first rising and then falling, especially technology stocks ushered in a slight rebound. So far this year, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a \"roller coaster\" trend, and their overall performance lags behind other major stock indexes. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 7.48%, the State Index has risen by 1.17%, and the Red Chip Index has risen by 7.35%.CICC: The performance of the market index is still relatively flat, regaining the new economyLooking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that although the performance of the Hong Kong stock market index may still be relatively flat, the structural attractiveness is already in place, with the focus on the \"new economy\" related sectors. Overall, we expect that the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises and MSCI China Index are expected to climb to 11,900 points and 114 points respectively, which implies an upside of about 10% and 4% compared with the current one. The main driving force comes from an increase in profits of 8% and 9% respectively. Valuation changes expanded by 4% and contracted by 2% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 is expected to reach 24.4%, of which the net profit of the non-financial sector and the financial sector will increase by 35.2% and 16.3% respectively.We expect that domestic monetary policy will remain basically stable under the background that the current economic growth remains stable and structural issues such as high leverage are still the focus of policies. If subsequent growth faces greater pressure and external uncertainty increases or decreases as the Fed's reduction begins, it is not ruled out that there will be certain domestic policies as a hedge. We believe that overall liquidity will remain relatively friendly until the Fed reduces QE. In addition, from a medium to long-term perspective, the growing new economic structure of the Hong Kong market will continue to enhance its long-term attractiveness to domestic and foreign funds.Specifically, we recommend over-allocating information technology, large consumption, medical care, some manufacturing industries, energy, and diversified finance, but we recommend standard or low allocating real estate, insurance, public utilities, etc. In addition to macro-based allocation ideas, we also provide two industry allocation ideas: high quality (ROE vs. PEG) and high prosperity (capital expenditure). In the medium term, we believe that China will take the lead in recovering from the impact of the epidemic and returning to normalization, which will push the market to re-focus on the opportunities brought by China's original internal long-term structural trends (such as consumption and industrial upgrading), such as electric vehicles, new energy (including solar energy), technology hardware, semiconductors, large consumption and medicine and biology, etc.CCB International: Hong Kong stocks will show an M-shaped trend in the second half of the year, with a maximum of 29,500 points. You can focus on domestic demand stocksZhao Wenli, managing director and deputy research director of CCB International Securities Research Department, pointed out that Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain range fluctuations in the second half of the year and generally show an M-shaped trend. The Hang Seng Index will fluctuate in the range of 26,500 points to 29,500 points, and the state-owned enterprise volatility index will fluctuate in the range of 9,500 points to 11,500 points. The third quarter of 2021 will be a testing window for important market expectations. At the same time, important variables such as the epidemic, debt interest and the US dollar are facing direction choices, and a new inflection point of style switching may also be formed in the third quarter.In the second half of this year, the Hong Kong market has the opportunity to see a new style switch, among which growth stocks are expected to outperform value stocks. As China emerged from the epidemic earlier than Europe and the United States, value stocks have reacted in advance. At the same time, the slowdown in economic growth may also limit the upside of value stocks. Relatively speaking, some leading growth stocks have high medium-and long-term growth visibility, and in the short term, the price/performance ratio is higher than that of value stocks.In terms of industries, the main sectors with rising profits are concentrated in biotechnology, film and television entertainment and cyclical products industries. The main downward forecast industries include medical beauty, software, wine travel and real estate-related sectors. It is recommended to focus on domestic demand stocks with high \"visibility\" and policy support, such as consumption, biomedicine, hardware technology, automobile and other industries. At the same time, we will absorb the leading high-quality new economic growth stocks on dips and gradually reduce our holdings of pro-cyclical value stocks.GF: Hong Kong stock technology is seriously undervalued in the worldGF Hong Kong Strategy Research pointed out that since mid-February this year, the trend of large-scale technology and Internet stocks in the Hong Kong stock market has been under significant pressure, mainly due to the gradual tightening of platform economy regulatory measures, the decline of global \"stay-at-home economy\" dividends, and the rise in U.S. bond yields. Restricted by three major factors. However, from the perspective of mid-2021, the negative impact brought by the above three major unfavorable factors is marginally decreasing, and the long-term layout value of Hong Kong's large technology and Internet stocks is gradually emerging.The valuation level of large-scale technology and Internet stocks has basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained a good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety. The Hang Seng Index expects PEG valuation to be significantly underestimated compared with the Nasdaq and ChiNext Indexes. In the future, the convergence of the \"valuation difference\" across markets is also expected to become the supporting momentum for the strength of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants. Coupled with the anti-monopoly policy of \"scraping bones and curing poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, which will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still relatively resilient.In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and network giants was basically within market expectations, and some even exceeded expectations. Although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. Leading enterprises in the science and technology industry will benefit significantly with their stable and efficient business models and good corporate governance.Nomura: Financial, Cyclical Stocks Recommended As Inflation HedgesNomura published a research report, describing the Asia-Pacific stock market as at a crossroads in the second half of the year. It is expected that the stock market will benefit from the strong corporate earnings outlook and rise. The targets for the MSCI Asia Index (excluding Japan) in 2021 and 2022 are 900 points and 974 points. Although the talk of excessive inflation and policy normalization has increased, and there is a risk of short-term correction, it has a positive attitude towards Asian stock markets in the medium term. Nomura gave the Hong Kong stock market an underweight rating, predicting a P/E of 19.2 times in 2021. The bank recommends that investors balance their portfolios with thematic and attractive stocks such as financial and cyclical stocks as inflation hedges.The ten Hong Kong stocks recommended by Nomura include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, BYD, China Merchants Bank, Anta Sports, Haidilao, Xincheng Development Holdings, China Taiping, Weigao and CK Hutchison.Everbright Sun Hung Kai Securities: The trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic, and the Hang Seng Index may reach a high of 31,000 pointsEverbright Sun Hung Kai Securities released its outlook report for the second half of the year. Strategist Wu Lixian said that he was cautiously optimistic about the trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year, with a high level of 31,000 points and a low level of 26,000 points. He also said that his view on technology and Internet stocks in the second half of the year is relatively positive, because the stock price performance of related industries in the first half of the year was relatively lagging behind, and its performance fundamentals are good. It is expected to catch up and lag in the second half of this year. It is expected that the Hang Seng Technology Index will have a chance to appear at a high level in the second half of this year. Near 9,000 points, while the support level is at 7,400 points. The bank also predicts that the target of the State Enterprise Index in the second half of the year will be 11,800 points.Wu Lixian also pointed out that it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue the main tone of valuation restoration in the first half of the year in the second half of the year. Both old and new economic stocks have different performance opportunities, while the upward trend of cyclical stocks may be slowing down. Among them, there are four major sectors worthy of optimism, including new economy, petroleum energy, home appliance consumption and communication services.Credit Suisse: Hang Seng Index is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with an end-of-year target of 30,000 pointsShao Zhiming, chief investment officer of Credit Suisse Greater China, said that he is optimistic about the trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year. The target of the Hang Seng Index is 30,000 points at the end of this year, but Hong Kong stocks are still subject to the tightening of monetary policy in the mainland in the short term. He estimated that from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter at the earliest, the tight monetary situation in the mainland may improve, prompting the inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks to rebound and driving market sentiment.Shao Zhiming pointed out that favorable factors for Hong Kong stocks also include optimistic global economic growth prospects and the potential of RMB appreciation that will provide support for Chinese stocks. At present, we are optimistic about mainland sustainable sectors, such as solar energy, wind energy and electric vehicle industries, and maintain a neutral view on Chinese technology stocks.Some large science and technology companies have indicated that they will allocate profits for medium and long-term investment in the short term. It is expected that the profit performance of technology stocks in the next two quarters will be difficult to surprise the market. Moreover, the valuation of value stocks is still attractive. Investors continue to increase their holdings of value stocks and flatten the proportion of technology stocks in the portfolio, which will limit the performance of technology stocks.Hang Seng Asset Management: Growth stocks can outperform value stocks in the second half of the yearXue Yonghui, director and investment director of Hang Seng Investment Management, said that the global supervision of technology companies has been strengthened, but the market has roughly digested the news and companies are adapting to the new environment. On the other hand, growth stocks have begun to adjust since February, and now some technology stocks have begun to return to more attractive levels. There is an opportunity to wait for low absorption. I believe that growth stocks will outperform value stocks in the second half of the year.Optimistic about domestic demand, Internet companies (e-commerce, life platforms), aging population and pharmaceutical innovation, environmental protection (new energy, electric vehicles, electric vehicle batteries), real estate (property management, real estate online platforms) and other industries, but bearish on energy, telecommunications and other sectors.","source":"lsy1606393433888","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks are not bearish VS a 15% correction! Well-known banks predict U.S. and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks are not bearish VS a 15% correction! Well-known banks predict U.S. and Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n美港电讯APP2021-06-28 19:49\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nU.S. stocks have achieved large gains so far this year. The market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's inflation and rate hike's statement. Hong Kong stocks have experienced a \"roller coaster\" trend so far this year. Major banks have different expectations for performance in the second half of the year. What needs to be paid attention to?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347e042b7f2477eb321a5543ae792f38\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"656\">U.S. stock outlook for the second half of the yearU.S. stocks rebounded sharply last week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes both hitting record highs. Benefiting from the economic recovery, U.S. stocks have achieved relatively large gains so far in 2021. The Dow has risen by 12.51%, the Nasdaq has risen by 11.42%, and the S&P 500 has risen by 13.97%. The market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's statement on inflation and rate hike. Major banks have different expectations for the trend in the second half of the year. Which sectors deserve attention?Credit Suisse: Stocks Will Outperform Other AssetsCredit Suisse expects global growth to accelerate in the coming months as countries gradually reopen their economies. In the process, the stock market will outperform other assets. Credit Suisse wrote in its outlook strategy report for the second half of the year that the global economy is expected to grow by 5.9% year-on-year in 2021, and the global economic growth rate will reach 4% in 2022. Growth is mainly driven by the advancement of vaccination, fiscal stimulus and the recovery of the broader services industry.Ray Farris, chief investment officer of Credit Suisse South Asia, said the economic expansion could lead to a sharp recovery in global earnings growth, boosting stocks. He told the media: \"We want stocks to become an outperforming asset class in the next six months to one year. As long as earnings continue to keep an upward trend, history shows that the stock market will climb all the way. Maybe there will be constant adjustments in this process, but adjustments are opportunities.\"In terms of stock markets, Credit Suisse said that it prefers to invest in cyclical industries such as finance and materials, especially cyclical stocks in Europe. European cyclical stocks are expected to make huge profits like cyclical stocks in U.S. stocks, but valuations are at low levels in decades, the bank said.Morgan Stanley: Bullish on Staples, Healthcare and Raw Materials StocksJudging from the experience of mid-cycle transition in the past, Morgan Stanley believes that U.S. stocks will undergo a correction of about 15%. The bank said the consensus estimate for next year is now above what its analysts have predicted to be achievable since the recovery began after its most upbeat quarterly earnings revision ever. More specifically, given inflation and tax headwinds, the bank believes margin estimates are too high, and the market should start factoring in these factors by lowering valuations.Driven by increased infrastructure spending, the bank downgraded the ratings of related companies. In its view, much of the infrastructure spending has been reasonably priced, and such projects often take longer to produce results. Additionally, many industrial businesses will be the most affected by rising inflation and labor shortages in their supply chains. Instead, the bank continues to favor financial stocks and ingredients stocks as a way to combat rising inflation. Healthcare services companies have lower valuations and greater pent-up demand compared to tech stocks.Morgan Stanley is still bullish on staples, healthcare and raw materials stocks rather than technology stocks, discretionary and industrial stocks. Morgan Stanley also continues to be optimistic about bank stocks, believing that they are the best way to deal with inflation, and recommends avoiding semiconductors, retailers, construction materials and other representative industries in the early cycle. Finally, looking back at the portfolio as a whole, finding a reasonable valuation for the company's value remains an important consideration.CITIC Securities: Tax increase is the biggest risk for US stocks in the second half of the yearThe G7 finance ministers' meeting on June 5th announced that it supported the proposal of imposing a global minimum tax rate of 15%. However, we judge that if this proposal cannot be introduced within the framework of OECD or G20, it is expected to have a limited impact on the tax burden of multinational enterprises. However, if Biden's domestic tax increase proposal is implemented, it is expected to be the biggest risk for U.S. stocks in the second half of the year: 1) The increase in corporate income tax will directly impact U.S. stock profits, while the current technology and pharmaceutical industries with low effective tax rates and a high proportion of overseas income will be affected. The impact is expected to be the biggest; 2) If the capital gains tax is raised to 39.6%, it is expected to trigger investor selling, and the trend of \"retail investors plus leverage\" entering the market since February this year may be reversed; 3) Since World War II, there has never been a joint increase in personal income tax, corporate income tax, and capital gains tax in American history. Therefore, if the United States unilaterally raises tax rates, it may lead to medium and long-term domestic capital outflows.Against the background of the continuous increase in vaccination rates, the global economy is expected to maintain a restart trend in the second half of this year. The price pressure caused by short-term \"demand normalization\" vs. \"supply bottleneck\" will also gradually subside. For the United States, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, given that the current high valuation of the S&P 500 has overdrawn the positive fundamentals beyond expectations, the release of the Taper signal and Biden's tax increase will be implemented in August and September respectively, which may mean that the U.S. stocks boosted by \"retail investors plus leverage\" since February this year will face a concentrated outbreak of risks in the third quarter.Huifeng International Development: The index is expected to reach 4,200 points to 4,300 points by the end of the yearZhang Yufeng, director of Huifeng International Development, said that due to favorable factors such as vaccination and economic restart, he is optimistic about the performance of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year, and the index is expected to reach 4,200 to 4,300 points by the end of the year. Despite the recent rise in inflation expectations in the United States and the recent hawkish release by the Federal Reserve, he believes that if you are not short-term investors, you do not need to take these factors too seriously. Everyone will be sensitive to rate hike and inflation news, but the Fed's remarks can actually change at any time. The most important thing when buying US stocks is to pay attention to the future development of the company.Against the backdrop of economic recovery, we are optimistic about financial stocks and health care sectors. Due to the current increase in capital in the market, it is noted that financial activities such as SPEC and IPO in the United States have been active since May, coupled with the emergence of the concept of integrating artificial intelligence technology in the financial industry, which will greatly accelerate the development of the industry.In the first half of the year, there was a phenomenon of sector rotation in the U.S. stock market. Many technology stocks showed discounts in their valuations, but they are still optimistic about technology stocks in the long run, and not the entire sector has been dragged down. Some large technology stocks, such as Google A and Amazon, performed Not bad, mainly small and medium-sized technology stocks are affected. Looking forward to the second half of the year, a number of technology stocks will be listed, which is expected to stimulate the atmosphere of the technology sector, thus improving the performance of this sector.Industrial Securities: U.S. stocks are not a bear market, but vulnerability and volatility have increased, and growth is expected to outperformThe research report pointed out that the U.S. economy may enter a \"quasi-stagflation\" in the second half of the year, with the economy weakening and inflation fluctuating at high levels. The probability of a bear market in the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year is small, and the probability of continuing the market through shocks is high. The liquidity environment in Europe and the United States is still loose, economic growth is slowing down but still resilient, and the impact of Taper and tax increases is still in the expected stage.Growth stocks supported by fundamentals in the U.S. stock market are expected to outperform again. The valuation of U.S. stock growth leaders represented by FAANGs is not high, which is expected to stabilize popularity. Secondly, U.S. bond yields will remain range-bound in the second half of the year, which is different from the rapid increase in the first half of the year. Therefore, the release of valuation risks for growth stocks has come to an end. In addition, the performance growth in the second half of the year turned to endogenous drive. The cyclical value style of U.S. stocks has benefited from cyclical recovery in the past six months and has significantly outperformed. In the second half of the year, it will be under pressure as the momentum of the U.S. inventory cycle weakens. Growth stocks will differentiate, and growth stocks with long-term endogenous growth momentum will start a new upward trend. However, thematic growth stocks or high-valuation sectors that have overdrawn high growth expectations will still be abandoned.Outlook for Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the yearLast week, Hong Kong stocks experienced first rising and then falling, especially technology stocks ushered in a slight rebound. So far this year, Hong Kong stocks have experienced a \"roller coaster\" trend, and their overall performance lags behind other major stock indexes. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 7.48%, the State Index has risen by 1.17%, and the Red Chip Index has risen by 7.35%.CICC: The performance of the market index is still relatively flat, regaining the new economyLooking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that although the performance of the Hong Kong stock market index may still be relatively flat, the structural attractiveness is already in place, with the focus on the \"new economy\" related sectors. Overall, we expect that the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises and MSCI China Index are expected to climb to 11,900 points and 114 points respectively, which implies an upside of about 10% and 4% compared with the current one. The main driving force comes from an increase in profits of 8% and 9% respectively. Valuation changes expanded by 4% and contracted by 2% respectively. It is estimated that the net profit growth rate of overseas Chinese stocks in 2021 is expected to reach 24.4%, of which the net profit of the non-financial sector and the financial sector will increase by 35.2% and 16.3% respectively.We expect that domestic monetary policy will remain basically stable under the background that the current economic growth remains stable and structural issues such as high leverage are still the focus of policies. If subsequent growth faces greater pressure and external uncertainty increases or decreases as the Fed's reduction begins, it is not ruled out that there will be certain domestic policies as a hedge. We believe that overall liquidity will remain relatively friendly until the Fed reduces QE. In addition, from a medium to long-term perspective, the growing new economic structure of the Hong Kong market will continue to enhance its long-term attractiveness to domestic and foreign funds.Specifically, we recommend over-allocating information technology, large consumption, medical care, some manufacturing industries, energy, and diversified finance, but we recommend standard or low allocating real estate, insurance, public utilities, etc. In addition to macro-based allocation ideas, we also provide two industry allocation ideas: high quality (ROE vs. PEG) and high prosperity (capital expenditure). In the medium term, we believe that China will take the lead in recovering from the impact of the epidemic and returning to normalization, which will push the market to re-focus on the opportunities brought by China's original internal long-term structural trends (such as consumption and industrial upgrading), such as electric vehicles, new energy (including solar energy), technology hardware, semiconductors, large consumption and medicine and biology, etc.CCB International: Hong Kong stocks will show an M-shaped trend in the second half of the year, with a maximum of 29,500 points. You can focus on domestic demand stocksZhao Wenli, managing director and deputy research director of CCB International Securities Research Department, pointed out that Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain range fluctuations in the second half of the year and generally show an M-shaped trend. The Hang Seng Index will fluctuate in the range of 26,500 points to 29,500 points, and the state-owned enterprise volatility index will fluctuate in the range of 9,500 points to 11,500 points. The third quarter of 2021 will be a testing window for important market expectations. At the same time, important variables such as the epidemic, debt interest and the US dollar are facing direction choices, and a new inflection point of style switching may also be formed in the third quarter.In the second half of this year, the Hong Kong market has the opportunity to see a new style switch, among which growth stocks are expected to outperform value stocks. As China emerged from the epidemic earlier than Europe and the United States, value stocks have reacted in advance. At the same time, the slowdown in economic growth may also limit the upside of value stocks. Relatively speaking, some leading growth stocks have high medium-and long-term growth visibility, and in the short term, the price/performance ratio is higher than that of value stocks.In terms of industries, the main sectors with rising profits are concentrated in biotechnology, film and television entertainment and cyclical products industries. The main downward forecast industries include medical beauty, software, wine travel and real estate-related sectors. It is recommended to focus on domestic demand stocks with high \"visibility\" and policy support, such as consumption, biomedicine, hardware technology, automobile and other industries. At the same time, we will absorb the leading high-quality new economic growth stocks on dips and gradually reduce our holdings of pro-cyclical value stocks.GF: Hong Kong stock technology is seriously undervalued in the worldGF Hong Kong Strategy Research pointed out that since mid-February this year, the trend of large-scale technology and Internet stocks in the Hong Kong stock market has been under significant pressure, mainly due to the gradual tightening of platform economy regulatory measures, the decline of global \"stay-at-home economy\" dividends, and the rise in U.S. bond yields. Restricted by three major factors. However, from the perspective of mid-2021, the negative impact brought by the above three major unfavorable factors is marginally decreasing, and the long-term layout value of Hong Kong's large technology and Internet stocks is gradually emerging.The valuation level of large-scale technology and Internet stocks has basically fallen below the historical average, and they have regained a good investment cost performance and a relatively sufficient margin of safety. The Hang Seng Index expects PEG valuation to be significantly underestimated compared with the Nasdaq and ChiNext Indexes. In the future, the convergence of the \"valuation difference\" across markets is also expected to become the supporting momentum for the strength of Hong Kong stock technology and Internet giants. Coupled with the anti-monopoly policy of \"scraping bones and curing poison\", the short-term negative impact is controllable, which will help enhance the vitality of the industry in the long run. With the implementation of Ali's penalties, policy uncertainty has also declined. Despite the gradual ebb of the global stay-at-home economy, the performance of large technology and Internet companies in Hong Kong stocks is still relatively resilient.In the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hong Kong stock technology and network giants was basically within market expectations, and some even exceeded expectations. Although the dividends of the epidemic are gradually fading, the dividends of economic transformation are still in the process of continuous release. Leading enterprises in the science and technology industry will benefit significantly with their stable and efficient business models and good corporate governance.Nomura: Financial, Cyclical Stocks Recommended As Inflation HedgesNomura published a research report, describing the Asia-Pacific stock market as at a crossroads in the second half of the year. It is expected that the stock market will benefit from the strong corporate earnings outlook and rise. The targets for the MSCI Asia Index (excluding Japan) in 2021 and 2022 are 900 points and 974 points. Although the talk of excessive inflation and policy normalization has increased, and there is a risk of short-term correction, it has a positive attitude towards Asian stock markets in the medium term. Nomura gave the Hong Kong stock market an underweight rating, predicting a P/E of 19.2 times in 2021. The bank recommends that investors balance their portfolios with thematic and attractive stocks such as financial and cyclical stocks as inflation hedges.The ten Hong Kong stocks recommended by Nomura include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, BYD, China Merchants Bank, Anta Sports, Haidilao, Xincheng Development Holdings, China Taiping, Weigao and CK Hutchison.Everbright Sun Hung Kai Securities: The trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year is cautiously optimistic, and the Hang Seng Index may reach a high of 31,000 pointsEverbright Sun Hung Kai Securities released its outlook report for the second half of the year. Strategist Wu Lixian said that he was cautiously optimistic about the trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year, with a high level of 31,000 points and a low level of 26,000 points. He also said that his view on technology and Internet stocks in the second half of the year is relatively positive, because the stock price performance of related industries in the first half of the year was relatively lagging behind, and its performance fundamentals are good. It is expected to catch up and lag in the second half of this year. It is expected that the Hang Seng Technology Index will have a chance to appear at a high level in the second half of this year. Near 9,000 points, while the support level is at 7,400 points. The bank also predicts that the target of the State Enterprise Index in the second half of the year will be 11,800 points.Wu Lixian also pointed out that it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will continue the main tone of valuation restoration in the first half of the year in the second half of the year. Both old and new economic stocks have different performance opportunities, while the upward trend of cyclical stocks may be slowing down. Among them, there are four major sectors worthy of optimism, including new economy, petroleum energy, home appliance consumption and communication services.Credit Suisse: Hang Seng Index is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with an end-of-year target of 30,000 pointsShao Zhiming, chief investment officer of Credit Suisse Greater China, said that he is optimistic about the trend of Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the year. The target of the Hang Seng Index is 30,000 points at the end of this year, but Hong Kong stocks are still subject to the tightening of monetary policy in the mainland in the short term. He estimated that from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter at the earliest, the tight monetary situation in the mainland may improve, prompting the inflow of funds into Hong Kong stocks to rebound and driving market sentiment.Shao Zhiming pointed out that favorable factors for Hong Kong stocks also include optimistic global economic growth prospects and the potential of RMB appreciation that will provide support for Chinese stocks. At present, we are optimistic about mainland sustainable sectors, such as solar energy, wind energy and electric vehicle industries, and maintain a neutral view on Chinese technology stocks.Some large science and technology companies have indicated that they will allocate profits for medium and long-term investment in the short term. It is expected that the profit performance of technology stocks in the next two quarters will be difficult to surprise the market. Moreover, the valuation of value stocks is still attractive. Investors continue to increase their holdings of value stocks and flatten the proportion of technology stocks in the portfolio, which will limit the performance of technology stocks.Hang Seng Asset Management: Growth stocks can outperform value stocks in the second half of the yearXue Yonghui, director and investment director of Hang Seng Investment Management, said that the global supervision of technology companies has been strengthened, but the market has roughly digested the news and companies are adapting to the new environment. On the other hand, growth stocks have begun to adjust since February, and now some technology stocks have begun to return to more attractive levels. There is an opportunity to wait for low absorption. I believe that growth stocks will outperform value stocks in the second half of the year.Optimistic about domestic demand, Internet companies (e-commerce, life platforms), aging population and pharmaceutical innovation, environmental protection (new energy, electric vehicles, electric vehicle batteries), real estate (property management, real estate online platforms) and other industries, but bearish on energy, telecommunications and other sectors.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003334&type=news\">美港电讯APP</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003334&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180159838","content_text":"美股今年迄今取得较大涨幅，市场关注美联储通胀及加息表态，港股今年迄今经历“过山车式”走势，大行对于下半年表现预期不一，有哪些需要关注的？美股下半年展望\n上周美股大幅反弹，纳指及标普500指数指数均刷新历史高位。受益于经济复苏，美股2021年迄今取得了较大的涨幅，道指累涨12.51%，纳指累涨11.42%，标普500指数累涨13.97%。市场关注美联储关于通胀及加息的表态，大行对于下半年走势预期不一，哪些板块值得关注？\n瑞信：股市表现将优于其他资产\n瑞士信贷预计，随着各国逐步重新开放经济，全球经济增长将在未来几个月加快。在这个过程中，股市表现将优于其他资产。瑞信在下半年展望策略报告中写到，预计全球经济在2021年的同比增长5.9%，2022年全球经济增速达到4%。增长的动力主要来自于疫苗接种的进程推进，财政刺激和更广泛的服务业复苏。\n瑞信南亚首席投资官Ray Farris表示，经济扩张可能会导致全球盈利增长大幅复苏，提振股市。他对媒体表示：“我们希望股票成为未来六个月至一年内表现优异的资产类别。只要盈利继续保持上升趋势，历史表明，股市将一路攀升。也许在这个过程中会不断出现调整，但调整即机会。”\n在股市方面，瑞信表示，更倾向于投资金融和材料等周期性行业，特别是欧洲地区的周期股。该行称，欧洲周期股预计和美股中的周期股一样，将获得丰厚的利润，但是估值处于数十年中的较低水平。\n大摩：看好必需品、医疗保健和原料股\n从以往中周期过渡的经验来看，大摩认为美股将发生15%左右的回调。该行表示，在经历了有史以来最乐观的季度收益修正后，明年的普遍预估现在高于其分析师所预测的复苏开始以来的可实现水平。更具体地说，考虑到通胀和税收的不利因素，该行认为利润率预估过高，市场应该开始通过降低估值来考虑这些因素。\n在加大基础设施支出的推动下，该行下调了相关企业的评级。在其看来，基础设施支出中的大部分已被合理定价，而且此类项目通常需要更长的时间才能产生效果。此外，许多工业企业将受到供应链中不断加剧的通胀和劳动力短缺的最大影响。相反，该行继续青睐金融类股和原料类股，以此来应对不断上升的通胀。与科技股相比，医疗保健服务企业的估值更低，且被压抑的需求更大。\n大摩看好的仍是必需品、医疗保健和原料股而非科技股、非必需品和工业股。大摩也继续看好银行股，认为它们是应对通胀的最佳途径，并建议避开半导体、零售商、建筑建材等为早周期的代表性行业。最后，回顾整个投资组合，为公司价值寻找合理的估值仍是重要考虑因素。\n中信证券：加税是美股下半年最大的风险\n6月5日的G7财长会议通告支持征收15%全球最低税率的提议，但我们判断，此提议若无法在OECD或G20的框架下推出，预计对跨国企业税负的影响有限。但拜登国内加税提案如落地，预计将是美股下半年最大的风险：1)企业所得税的上调将直接冲击美股盈利，而当前有效税率较低、海外收入占比高的科技和医药行业受冲击预计最大；2)资本利得税若上调至39.6%，料将引发投资者抛售，今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”入市的趋势或逆转；3)二战以来，美国历史上从未出现过个人所得税、企业所得税以及资本利得税共同上调的现象。因此，美国单边上调税率的行为如果落地，或导致中长期国内资金流出。\n在疫苗接种率持续提升的背景下，今年下半年全球经济预计维持重启态势。短期“需求正常化”vs“供给瓶颈”所导致的价格压力也将逐步消退。对于美国，虽然下半年美联储大概率维持超宽松的货币政策，但鉴于当前标普500的高位估值已透支了基本面超预期的利好，Taper信号的释放迭加拜登的加税如若分别在8月和9月落地，或意味着今年2月以来“散户加杠杆”助推的美股在3季度会面临风险集中爆发。\n惠峰国际发展：料标指年底见4,200点至4,300点\n惠峰国际发展董事张玉峰表示，由于疫苗接种及经济重启等利好因素，看好美股下半年的表现，料标指年底见4,200点至4,300点。虽然最近美国通胀预期升温，加上美联储近期放鹰，但他认为若不是短线投资者，就不需要将这些因素看得太重。大家都会对加息及通胀消息感到敏感，但美联储的言论其实随时都会变，买美股最重要是留意公司的未来发展。\n在经济复甦的背景下，看好金融股及健康护理板块。由于现时市场上的资金增加，留意到自5月起美国金融活动例如SPEC及IPO表现活跃，加上现时金融业兴起结合人工智能技术的概念，将大大加快行业的发展。\n美股市场上半年出现板块轮替的现象，很多科技股的估值都出现折让，但长期仍看好科技股，而且并不是整个板块都受到拖累，一些大型的科技股，例如谷歌A、亚马逊等表现并不差，受影响的主要是中小型科技股。展望下半年将会有多家科技股上市，有望带动科技板块的气氛，从而令此板块的表现改善。\n兴业证券：美股不是熊市，但脆弱性波动性加大，成长有望跑赢\n研报指出，下半年美国经济或步入“类滞胀”，经济走弱、通胀高位震荡。美股下半年熊市概率小，通过震荡来延续行情的概率大。欧美流动性环境依然宽松，经济增速放缓但仍有韧性，Taper和加税的影响仍在预期阶段。\n美股市场有基本面支撑的成长股将有望再次跑赢。以FAANGs为代表的美股成长龙头的估值并不高，有望稳住人气。其次，下半年美债收益率将维持区间震荡，不同于上半年的快速提升，所以，成长股的估值风险释放告一段落。另外，下半年业绩增长转向内生驱动。美股周期价值风格过去大半年受益于周期复苏而明显跑赢，下半年将随着美国库存周期动能趋弱而承压。成长股将分化，具备长期内生增长动能的成长股将开始新的上行。但是，题材性成长股或者透支了高增长预期的高估值板块仍将被抛弃。\n港股下半年展望\n上周的港股经历先升后跌，尤其是科技股迎来小幅反弹。今年迄今，港股经历“过山车式”走势，整体表现落后于其他主要股指，恒指累涨7.48%，国指累涨1.17%，红筹指数累涨7.35%。\n中金：大盘指数表现仍相对平淡重拾新经济\n展望下半年，我们认为虽然港股大盘指数表现可能仍相对平淡，但结构性吸引力已经具备，重点在于“新经济”相关板块。整体来看，我们预计恒生国企和MSCI中国指数有望分别攀升至11900点和114点，较当前隐含大约10%和4%的上涨空间，主要驱动力来自盈利分别上调8%和9%，而估值变化分别扩张4%和收缩2%。预计海外中资股2021年净利润增速有望达到24.4%，其中非金融板块和金融板块净利润将分别增长35.2%和16.3%。\n我们预计，在当前经济增长仍保持稳健且高杠杆等结构性问题仍是政策焦点的背景下，国内货币政策将保持基本稳定。如果后续增长面临更大压力且外部不确定性随着美联储减量开启而增减，不排除国内有一定政策作为对冲。我们认为在美联储QE减量前整体流动性将会维持相对友好状态。另外，从中长期角度，香港市场不断壮大的新经济格局将持续提升其对国内外资金的长期吸引力。\n具体看，我们建议超配信息技术、大消费、医疗保健、部分制造业、能源、多元金融，但建议标配或低配房地产、保险、公用事业等。除了基于宏观配置思路外，我们还提供高质量(ROE vs。 PEG)和高景气度(资本开支)两个行业配置思路。中期看，我们认为中国率先从疫情影响中修复并回归常态化，将推动市场重新关注中国原本的内在长期结构性趋势(如消费和产业升级)带来的机遇，如电动汽车、新能源(包括太阳能)、科技硬件、半导体、大消费和医药生物等。\n建银国际：港股下半年将呈M型走势，最高可见29500点，可重点关注内需股\n建银国际证券研究部董事总经理、研究副主管师赵文利指出，预计港股下半年总体维持区间波动并大致呈现M型走势。恒生指数将在26500点至29500点区间波动，国企波动指数介于9500点至11500点。2021三季度将是市场重要预期的检验窗口。同时，疫情、债息及美元等重要变量面临方向选择，三季度也有可能形成新的风格切换拐点。\n今年下半年香港市场有机会出现新的风格切换，其中成长股有望跑赢价值股。由于中国较欧美早走出疫情，价值股已提前反应。同时经济增速放缓后也可能限制价值股的上升空间。相对而言，一些成长股龙头的中长期成长性能见度高，短周期而言性价比相对价值股较高。\n分行业来看，主要盈利上升板块集中于生物科技、影视娱乐及周期品行业。预测主要下调行业包括医美、软件、酒旅和地产相关的板块。建议重点关注“能见度”高及有政策支持的内需股，如消费、生物医药、硬件科技、汽车等行业。同时逢低吸纳优质新经济成长股龙头，逐步减持顺周期的价值股。\n广发：港股科技严重低估于全球\n广发香港策略研究指出自今年2月中旬以来，港股市场的大型科网股走势显著承压，主要受平台经济监管措施逐步收紧、全球范围内“宅经济”红利减退和美债收益率走高等三大因素所制约。不过，站在2021年年中的时间点上来看，上述的三大不利因素所带来的负面影响正在边际减退，香港大型科网股的长线布局价值逐渐浮现。\n大型科网股估值水平基本都已经回落到历史均值以下，重新具备了良好的投资性价比和较为充足的安全边际。恒生指数预期PEG估值大幅低估与纳指和创业板指数，未来跨市场间“估值差”的收敛也有望成为港股科网巨企走强的支撑动能。加之反垄断政策“刮骨疗毒”，短期负面影响可控，长期有助于增强行业活力。随着阿里处罚的落地，政策面的不确定性也有所下降。尽管全球宅经济逐步退潮，港股大型科网公司的业绩仍具备较强韧性。\n今年一季度，港股科网巨头的业绩基本都处于市场预期内，部分甚至超出预期。虽然疫情的红利逐步消退，但经济转型的红利却仍在持续释放的过程之中，科网行业各龙头企业凭借着稳健高效的商业模式和良好的公司治理将显著受益。\n野村：建议选择金融、周期性股票作为通胀对冲\n野村发表研究报告，形容亚太区股市下半年正处于十字路口，预期股市会受益于强劲的企业盈利前景而上升，对2021及2022年MSCI亚洲指数（日本除外）的目标为900点及974点，虽然通胀过强及政策正常化的说法增强，存在短期回调的风险，但对中期内亚洲股市持积极态度。野村则给予香港股市减持评级，预测2021年市盈率为19.2倍。该行建议投资者平衡投资组合，以主题性及具有吸引估值的股票如金融、周期性股票作为通胀对冲。\n野村推荐的十只港股包括，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、比亚迪股份、招商银行、安踏体育、海底捞、新城发展控股、中国太平、威高股份及长和。\n光大新鸿基证券：下半年港股走势审慎乐观，恒指高位或见31000点\n光大新鸿基证券发表下半年展望报告，策略师伍礼贤表示，对下半年港股走势审慎乐观，高位或见31000点，低位则或见26000点。他又表示，对下半年科网股看法较为正面，因上半年相关行业的股价表现较落后，其业绩基本面不错，今年下半年有望追落后，料今年下半年恒生科技指数高位有机会出现在9000点附近，而支持位则在7400点。该行亦预测，国企指数的下半年目标为11800点。\n伍礼贤又指出，预期港股下半年将延续上半年估值修复的主基调，新旧经济股份均有不同的表现机会，而周期性股份升势或现放缓，当中值得看好的4大板块，包括新经济、石油能源、家电消费及通讯服务。\n瑞信：恒指下半年看升 年底目标30000点\n瑞信大中华区首席投资总监邵志铭表示，对港股下半年走势看升，恒生指数在今年底目标为30000点，但港股短线仍受制于内地收紧银根的力度。他估计，最快在第三季末至第四季，内地银根偏紧的情况或有改善，促使流入港股的资金回升，带动市场气氛。\n邵志铭指出，利好港股的因素还包括，全球经济增长前景乐观，以及人民币升值潜力会为中资股提供支持。目前看好内地可持续板块，例如太阳能、风能和电动车行业，对中资科技股则维持中性看法。\n部分大型科网公司已表明，短线会拨出盈利用作中长线投资，料科技股在未来两个季度的盈利表现，将难以给予市场惊喜。而且价值型股票估值仍吸引，投资者继续增持价值型股票，平冲投资组合中科技股的比重，都会限制科技股的表现。\n恒生资管：下半年成长股升幅可跑赢价值股\n恒生投资管理董事兼投资总监薛永辉表示，环球加强对科技企业的监管，但市场已大致消化消息，企业亦正适应新环境。另一方面，成长股2月起展开调整，现时开始有科技股回到较为吸引的水平，有机会可候低吸纳，相信下半年成长股升幅可跑赢价值股。\n看好内需、互联网企业（电商、生活平台）、人口老化及医药创新、环保（新能源、电动车、电动车电池）、房地产（物管、房产在线平台）等行业，但看淡能源、电讯等板块。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["MKFG","AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":22,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}