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Catherine81
2021-06-28

In the post-epidemic era, Red Star Macalline may usher in "Davis Double Click"

家居龙头在估值修复的同时，利润也在快速提升。 2020年是一个特殊年，有些行业受益，有些行业受损，受损的行业复苏程度也不相同。像超市，是最先受益的，但也是最先崩盘的，因为疫情加速改变了人的行为方式，新

In the post-epidemic era, Red Star Macalline may usher in "Davis Double Click"

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audreyhutah
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":150024455,"tweetId":"150024455","gmtCreate":1624877357977,"gmtModify":1703846807113,"author":{"id":3585154973275419,"idStr":"3585154973275419","authorId":3585154973275419,"authorIdStr":"3585154973275419","name":"Catherine81","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a79851a3d87b4faea127374eb70b0b0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>o</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>o</body></html>","text":"o","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150024455","repostId":1199005345,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199005345","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1624877094,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199005345?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 18:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"In the post-epidemic era, Red Star Macalline may usher in \"Davis Double Click\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199005345","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"家居龙头在估值修复的同时，利润也在快速提升。\n2020年是一个特殊年，有些行业受益，有些行业受损，受损的行业复苏程度也不相同。像超市，是最先受益的，但也是最先崩盘的，因为疫情加速改变了人的行为方式，新","content":"While the valuation of the home furnishing leader is being restored, the profit is also increasing rapidly.2020 is a special year. Some industries benefit, some industries suffer, and the degree of recovery of the damaged industries is also different. Supermarkets, for example, are the first to benefit, but they are also the first to collapse, because the epidemic has accelerated changes in people's behavior, new channels are constantly emerging, and the epidemic has contributed to the return of supermarkets.At the same time, represented by home furnishing, some industries that focus on offline experience may be hindered in the development of the epidemic, but in the long run, people's consumption needs and consumption habits have not changed due to the epidemic. As the epidemic slows down, the home furnishing industry has ushered in a full recovery without any suspense. In May, the National Building Materials and Home Furnishing Prosperity Index (BHI) reached 130.03, an increase of 15.51 points month-on-month and 40.90 points year-on-year. It will come back eventually, or it will come back.The company we want to discuss today isThe leader in the home furnishing industry-Macalline (601828. SH).Company IntroductionThe history of Red Star Macalline can be traced back to 1986. It was listed on the Hong Kong stock market in 2015, listed on the A-share market in 2018, and received strategic investment from Alibaba in 2019. It is a leading domestic home decoration and furniture mall operator and a pan-home business platform service provider. Operate and manage self-operated shopping malls, entrusted shopping malls, franchised shopping malls and strategic cooperative shopping malls.Simply put, the company provides venues to home furnishing companies and collects rent. There are two types, one is self-operated shopping malls, where the company collects rent and management fees from customers on an annual basis. The company's self-operated shopping malls are divided into self-owned shopping malls and non-self-owned shopping malls. The former is owned by the company and the latter is leased by the company.The other is to manage shopping malls, etc. The company does not own these shopping malls, but exports management to them. The company sends managers to partners to provide comprehensive consulting and entrusted management services, and collects project brand consulting fees, investment promotion service fees, business management consulting fees and entrusted management fees. This is similar to a hotel. Output management belongs to an asset-light operation mode.The company seizes high-quality locations through self-operated shopping malls to create location advantages, and then achieves faster expansion and sinking by entrusting the light asset operation of shopping malls. As of December 31, 2020, the company had 92 self-operated shopping malls (58 of which were self-owned properties), mainly distributed in high-quality locations in first-and second-tier cities, with stable operating income. The company has 273 commissioned shopping malls, mainly distributed in third-tier and other cities. In addition, the company also operates 12 home shopping malls through strategic cooperation, and authorizes the opening of 66 franchised home building materials projects through franchising, including a total of 476 home building materials stores.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2817027c12a058b113c5cd1f4bba9d04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of domestic market volume and sales network, it can be roughly divided into three echelons. The first echelon includes Macalline, Easyhome, Yuexing Home Furnishing and Ouyada. The number of home furnishing malls in the four companies exceeds 1,120. The second echelon is dominated by overseas home furnishing mall brands and medium and large regional chain home furnishing mall brands, including Yideli, IKEA, B & Q, Fusenmei, etc. The third echelon is mainly small and medium-sized regional home furnishing shopping malls.As of the end of 2020, Macalline's operating area reached 22.05 million square meters, leading the country in terms of chain network, market coverage and sales scale.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33090ef402b617e3f6615b61a7c87cd8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So what does this lead really mean?Let's start with household furniture consumption, especially furniture consumption. Furniture purchase behavior is a low-frequency behavior for consumers, only a few times in a lifetime. Therefore, consumers have no brand awareness of furniture in their minds. When making purchase decisions, consumers need to learn, understand and make decisions in a short time. All furniture is unfamiliar to consumers. Whether you are a big factory or a small factory, when the products are placed in front of consumers, they are of the same level in consumers' eyes. Consumers rely more on feelings or the promotion of sales staff to complete decisions.This means that furniture consumption is low-frequency, high-priced, and heavy-scene reflection. These characteristics determine the irreplaceability of offline channels, and the channel value precedes the brand value. No matter at home or abroad, offline professional retail stores account for the heaviest proportion of pan-home market retail.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c9dc1f7a79db64cbf1034c7d4fb2e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here you can see the status of Red Star Macalline. This status will not change due to the epidemic, nor has it been hit by multiple channels (such as community group buying, online supermarkets) like supermarkets, so future recovery is certain of.In addition to the home furniture mall business, in 2019, Macalline established a decoration industry group and upgraded the decoration business to the first business in 2020. Through the three major brand matrices \"Macalline Space Aesthetics\", \"Home Beide\", \"Better Home\" accelerates its entry into the game, competes for front-end traffic, and realizes the integration of home consumption through \"one-stop\" home decoration.Future HighlightsIn the long run, Red Star Macalline is still a rare high-quality target in the A-share home furnishing industry.From the perspective of industry demand, my country's demand for furniture comes from two aspects. One is the incremental housing brought about by urbanization. In recent years, my country's urbanization rate has steadily increased, reaching 60.6% in 2019, and the urbanization rate has increased by 0.8-1 percentage point in the first year. It is predicted that 11-14 million new urban residents will be added every year, which means that the future development prospects of the home furnishing industry are still broad. In 2020, my country's commodity sales area will reach 1.76 billion square meters, and the area of newly started houses by real estate companies will be 2.24 billion square meters. New house decoration can be expected.The second is the demand for renovation of old houses. Second-hand house buyers and property owners have a strong demand for partial renovation and comprehensive renovation due to aging decoration and outdated decoration style. The renovation and improvement of old houses and second-hand houses in first-and second-tier cities in China Consumption demand accounted for 54.3% of the total decoration, which has surpassed that of new houses.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648b133e39fd2345cdbffb8d4356211f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under the resonance of new houses and old houses, the demand for furniture in the future is guaranteed, and the country will slowly enter the era dominated by existing houses, and the impact of the real estate cycle on Macalline will weaken. Judging from the first quarter of 2021, Macalline's performance is recovering. In the first quarter, the revenue was 3.341 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, the net profit was 724 million, a year-on-year increase of 80.79, and the deduction of non-revenue was 413 million, a year-on-year increase of 101.45%. In particular, it should be pointed out that the net profit after deduction of non-revenue in the first quarter was year-on-year in 2019. An increase of nearly 40%.From the company's point of view, the company is starting to reduce leverage. This includes the company's accelerated transformation to light assets. In the future, the main direction of the company's development is to continue to sink through the entrusted management model by virtue of brand effect and business experience. Under the asset-light model, the partner provides all the expenses for building the mall, and Macalline does not need to bear the capital expenditure. From the past operation, Macalline's brand influence and management experience are good, and the occupancy rate of entrusted shopping malls is over 90%. This past achievement will also attract partners to cooperate with Macalline.The second is that the company reduces financial leverage through asset disposal and the introduction of strategic partners. In May 2021, Macalline's application for non-public issuance of A shares was approved, and it plans to raise no more than 3.7 billion, of which 1.11 billion is used to repay interest-bearing liabilities. In June 2021, Macalline announced that it had reached a \"Cooperation Framework Agreement\" with Tianjin Yuanchuan Investment. Tianjin Yuanchuan will acquire 100% equity of Macalline's 7 logistics subsidiaries, with a total target asset value of 2.5 billion. The company It is estimated that the total transaction price is RMB 2.312 billion.In addition, the company also holds a large amount of equity in home furnishing companies. As a charter company, Macalline is well aware of the equity value of the following cooperative home furnishing companies. Since 2013, Macalline has begun to strategically invest in upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain, such as Oppein Home Furnishing. From 2018 to 2020, the company received a total of 33.38 million yuan in dividends from Oppein. In the future, the realization of the equity of these companies is expected to bring more cash to the company and reduce financial leverage.In terms of future development, in addition to the original store business, the company has entered the home improvement sector, which is also a trillion-level market. According to the report of the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, the scale of my country's home improvement market will exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2020, and it is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7% in the future.The home improvement market is characterized by typical \"big industry, small business\", and there is no truly national home improvement company. Macalline established the decoration industry group in 2019, and entered the game through the three major brand matrices \"Macalline Space Aesthetics\", \"Home Beide\" and \"Better Home\" to compete for front-end traffic. If the home improvement business is done well, it can not only expand a new growth point, but also attract traffic to the original furniture store business.The core point of home improvement business is designer resources. Through the \"M + High-end Interior Design Competition\" and \"Star Design\" platform, Macalline has gathered more than 36,000 designers' talent resources, giving full play to designers' strong voice and control in the process of home decoration. With home decoration and designers as the entrance of customer traffic, Macalline can integrate the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the industry and enhance the cooperation stickiness with home furniture companies, distributors, and designers. Coupled with Macalline's nationwide network, a localized home improvement network can be fully built. In this field of \"big industry, small business\", Macalline's development space is worth looking forward to.To sum up, Macalline is improving in two points now. First, its performance has begun to turn upward, and as the stock of housing gradually dominates, the cyclicality of real estate will weaken in the future. Second, the company is starting to reduce leverage, reduce financial risks, and reduce financial expenses. At the same time, there is room for imagination in the home improvement market that the company has entered.Valuation and TechnicalsLet's talk about valuation.Calculated based on the price of A shares, the current market value is 42.8 billion, and the net profit in 2020 has been destroyed. Looking at 2019, the corresponding net profit valuation in 2019 is 9.13 times, and the corresponding deduction is 16 times. This valuation is not expensive. Compared with Easyhome, the current market value is 39.8 billion, which corresponds to 13 times and 19 times the net profit attributable to the parent and the deduction of non-attributable to the parent respectively in 2019. Macalline is relatively undervalued.Under the background that the company's fundamentals are stable and improving at the same time, the valuation may be repaired.Looking into the future, according to the consensus expectations of securities firms, the current market value corresponds to 10.86 times, 9.32 times, and 8.08 times in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively. Judging from the company's operating conditions in the first quarter, brokers' expectations for this year may be low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadeb9a74f808ab3f6ead4431f2f4bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's talk about the trading side again. The company's stock price is still at the bottom in terms of the big cycle. This bottom has been consolidated for more than two years. Recently, there has been an obvious phenomenon of heavy volume at the bottom, which is a sign worthy of attention. Since the beginning of this year, Red Star Macalline's share price has increased by 29.0% (as of the close on June 25), far exceeding the 3.9% of the Shanghai Composite Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/772fc7d557b53436315215cb689ddc45\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved non-net profit of 412 million yuan, double that of 205 million yuan in the same period last year. In other words, with the overall recovery of the industry and the advent of the era of stock housing,While the valuation of the home furnishing leader is being restored, the profit is also increasing rapidly.Valuation repair + profit exceeds expectations, Red Star Macalline is ushering in a \"Davis double-click\".","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In the post-epidemic era, Red Star Macalline may usher in \"Davis Double Click\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn the post-epidemic era, Red Star Macalline may usher in \"Davis Double Click\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n格隆汇投资学苑 \n2021-06-28 18:44\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nWhile the valuation of the home furnishing leader is being restored, the profit is also increasing rapidly.2020 is a special year. Some industries benefit, some industries suffer, and the degree of recovery of the damaged industries is also different. Supermarkets, for example, are the first to benefit, but they are also the first to collapse, because the epidemic has accelerated changes in people's behavior, new channels are constantly emerging, and the epidemic has contributed to the return of supermarkets.At the same time, represented by home furnishing, some industries that focus on offline experience may be hindered in the development of the epidemic, but in the long run, people's consumption needs and consumption habits have not changed due to the epidemic. As the epidemic slows down, the home furnishing industry has ushered in a full recovery without any suspense. In May, the National Building Materials and Home Furnishing Prosperity Index (BHI) reached 130.03, an increase of 15.51 points month-on-month and 40.90 points year-on-year. It will come back eventually, or it will come back.The company we want to discuss today isThe leader in the home furnishing industry-Macalline (601828. SH).Company IntroductionThe history of Red Star Macalline can be traced back to 1986. It was listed on the Hong Kong stock market in 2015, listed on the A-share market in 2018, and received strategic investment from Alibaba in 2019. It is a leading domestic home decoration and furniture mall operator and a pan-home business platform service provider. Operate and manage self-operated shopping malls, entrusted shopping malls, franchised shopping malls and strategic cooperative shopping malls.Simply put, the company provides venues to home furnishing companies and collects rent. There are two types, one is self-operated shopping malls, where the company collects rent and management fees from customers on an annual basis. The company's self-operated shopping malls are divided into self-owned shopping malls and non-self-owned shopping malls. The former is owned by the company and the latter is leased by the company.The other is to manage shopping malls, etc. The company does not own these shopping malls, but exports management to them. The company sends managers to partners to provide comprehensive consulting and entrusted management services, and collects project brand consulting fees, investment promotion service fees, business management consulting fees and entrusted management fees. This is similar to a hotel. Output management belongs to an asset-light operation mode.The company seizes high-quality locations through self-operated shopping malls to create location advantages, and then achieves faster expansion and sinking by entrusting the light asset operation of shopping malls. As of December 31, 2020, the company had 92 self-operated shopping malls (58 of which were self-owned properties), mainly distributed in high-quality locations in first-and second-tier cities, with stable operating income. The company has 273 commissioned shopping malls, mainly distributed in third-tier and other cities. In addition, the company also operates 12 home shopping malls through strategic cooperation, and authorizes the opening of 66 franchised home building materials projects through franchising, including a total of 476 home building materials stores.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2817027c12a058b113c5cd1f4bba9d04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of domestic market volume and sales network, it can be roughly divided into three echelons. The first echelon includes Macalline, Easyhome, Yuexing Home Furnishing and Ouyada. The number of home furnishing malls in the four companies exceeds 1,120. The second echelon is dominated by overseas home furnishing mall brands and medium and large regional chain home furnishing mall brands, including Yideli, IKEA, B & Q, Fusenmei, etc. The third echelon is mainly small and medium-sized regional home furnishing shopping malls.As of the end of 2020, Macalline's operating area reached 22.05 million square meters, leading the country in terms of chain network, market coverage and sales scale.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33090ef402b617e3f6615b61a7c87cd8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">So what does this lead really mean?Let's start with household furniture consumption, especially furniture consumption. Furniture purchase behavior is a low-frequency behavior for consumers, only a few times in a lifetime. Therefore, consumers have no brand awareness of furniture in their minds. When making purchase decisions, consumers need to learn, understand and make decisions in a short time. All furniture is unfamiliar to consumers. Whether you are a big factory or a small factory, when the products are placed in front of consumers, they are of the same level in consumers' eyes. Consumers rely more on feelings or the promotion of sales staff to complete decisions.This means that furniture consumption is low-frequency, high-priced, and heavy-scene reflection. These characteristics determine the irreplaceability of offline channels, and the channel value precedes the brand value. No matter at home or abroad, offline professional retail stores account for the heaviest proportion of pan-home market retail.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c9dc1f7a79db64cbf1034c7d4fb2e8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Here you can see the status of Red Star Macalline. This status will not change due to the epidemic, nor has it been hit by multiple channels (such as community group buying, online supermarkets) like supermarkets, so future recovery is certain of.In addition to the home furniture mall business, in 2019, Macalline established a decoration industry group and upgraded the decoration business to the first business in 2020. Through the three major brand matrices \"Macalline Space Aesthetics\", \"Home Beide\", \"Better Home\" accelerates its entry into the game, competes for front-end traffic, and realizes the integration of home consumption through \"one-stop\" home decoration.Future HighlightsIn the long run, Red Star Macalline is still a rare high-quality target in the A-share home furnishing industry.From the perspective of industry demand, my country's demand for furniture comes from two aspects. One is the incremental housing brought about by urbanization. In recent years, my country's urbanization rate has steadily increased, reaching 60.6% in 2019, and the urbanization rate has increased by 0.8-1 percentage point in the first year. It is predicted that 11-14 million new urban residents will be added every year, which means that the future development prospects of the home furnishing industry are still broad. In 2020, my country's commodity sales area will reach 1.76 billion square meters, and the area of newly started houses by real estate companies will be 2.24 billion square meters. New house decoration can be expected.The second is the demand for renovation of old houses. Second-hand house buyers and property owners have a strong demand for partial renovation and comprehensive renovation due to aging decoration and outdated decoration style. The renovation and improvement of old houses and second-hand houses in first-and second-tier cities in China Consumption demand accounted for 54.3% of the total decoration, which has surpassed that of new houses.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/648b133e39fd2345cdbffb8d4356211f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Under the resonance of new houses and old houses, the demand for furniture in the future is guaranteed, and the country will slowly enter the era dominated by existing houses, and the impact of the real estate cycle on Macalline will weaken. Judging from the first quarter of 2021, Macalline's performance is recovering. In the first quarter, the revenue was 3.341 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, the net profit was 724 million, a year-on-year increase of 80.79, and the deduction of non-revenue was 413 million, a year-on-year increase of 101.45%. In particular, it should be pointed out that the net profit after deduction of non-revenue in the first quarter was year-on-year in 2019. An increase of nearly 40%.From the company's point of view, the company is starting to reduce leverage. This includes the company's accelerated transformation to light assets. In the future, the main direction of the company's development is to continue to sink through the entrusted management model by virtue of brand effect and business experience. Under the asset-light model, the partner provides all the expenses for building the mall, and Macalline does not need to bear the capital expenditure. From the past operation, Macalline's brand influence and management experience are good, and the occupancy rate of entrusted shopping malls is over 90%. This past achievement will also attract partners to cooperate with Macalline.The second is that the company reduces financial leverage through asset disposal and the introduction of strategic partners. In May 2021, Macalline's application for non-public issuance of A shares was approved, and it plans to raise no more than 3.7 billion, of which 1.11 billion is used to repay interest-bearing liabilities. In June 2021, Macalline announced that it had reached a \"Cooperation Framework Agreement\" with Tianjin Yuanchuan Investment. Tianjin Yuanchuan will acquire 100% equity of Macalline's 7 logistics subsidiaries, with a total target asset value of 2.5 billion. The company It is estimated that the total transaction price is RMB 2.312 billion.In addition, the company also holds a large amount of equity in home furnishing companies. As a charter company, Macalline is well aware of the equity value of the following cooperative home furnishing companies. Since 2013, Macalline has begun to strategically invest in upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain, such as Oppein Home Furnishing. From 2018 to 2020, the company received a total of 33.38 million yuan in dividends from Oppein. In the future, the realization of the equity of these companies is expected to bring more cash to the company and reduce financial leverage.In terms of future development, in addition to the original store business, the company has entered the home improvement sector, which is also a trillion-level market. According to the report of the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, the scale of my country's home improvement market will exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2020, and it is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7% in the future.The home improvement market is characterized by typical \"big industry, small business\", and there is no truly national home improvement company. Macalline established the decoration industry group in 2019, and entered the game through the three major brand matrices \"Macalline Space Aesthetics\", \"Home Beide\" and \"Better Home\" to compete for front-end traffic. If the home improvement business is done well, it can not only expand a new growth point, but also attract traffic to the original furniture store business.The core point of home improvement business is designer resources. Through the \"M + High-end Interior Design Competition\" and \"Star Design\" platform, Macalline has gathered more than 36,000 designers' talent resources, giving full play to designers' strong voice and control in the process of home decoration. With home decoration and designers as the entrance of customer traffic, Macalline can integrate the upstream and downstream industrial chains of the industry and enhance the cooperation stickiness with home furniture companies, distributors, and designers. Coupled with Macalline's nationwide network, a localized home improvement network can be fully built. In this field of \"big industry, small business\", Macalline's development space is worth looking forward to.To sum up, Macalline is improving in two points now. First, its performance has begun to turn upward, and as the stock of housing gradually dominates, the cyclicality of real estate will weaken in the future. Second, the company is starting to reduce leverage, reduce financial risks, and reduce financial expenses. At the same time, there is room for imagination in the home improvement market that the company has entered.Valuation and TechnicalsLet's talk about valuation.Calculated based on the price of A shares, the current market value is 42.8 billion, and the net profit in 2020 has been destroyed. Looking at 2019, the corresponding net profit valuation in 2019 is 9.13 times, and the corresponding deduction is 16 times. This valuation is not expensive. Compared with Easyhome, the current market value is 39.8 billion, which corresponds to 13 times and 19 times the net profit attributable to the parent and the deduction of non-attributable to the parent respectively in 2019. Macalline is relatively undervalued.Under the background that the company's fundamentals are stable and improving at the same time, the valuation may be repaired.Looking into the future, according to the consensus expectations of securities firms, the current market value corresponds to 10.86 times, 9.32 times, and 8.08 times in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively. Judging from the company's operating conditions in the first quarter, brokers' expectations for this year may be low.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadeb9a74f808ab3f6ead4431f2f4bac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Let's talk about the trading side again. The company's stock price is still at the bottom in terms of the big cycle. This bottom has been consolidated for more than two years. Recently, there has been an obvious phenomenon of heavy volume at the bottom, which is a sign worthy of attention. Since the beginning of this year, Red Star Macalline's share price has increased by 29.0% (as of the close on June 25), far exceeding the 3.9% of the Shanghai Composite Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/772fc7d557b53436315215cb689ddc45\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved non-net profit of 412 million yuan, double that of 205 million yuan in the same period last year. In other words, with the overall recovery of the industry and the advent of the era of stock housing,While the valuation of the home furnishing leader is being restored, the profit is also increasing rapidly.Valuation repair + profit exceeds expectations, Red Star Macalline is ushering in a \"Davis double-click\".\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab1e844800ac941317a206fb39d9e47","relate_stocks":{"01528":"红星美凯龙"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199005345","content_text":"家居龙头在估值修复的同时，利润也在快速提升。\n2020年是一个特殊年，有些行业受益，有些行业受损，受损的行业复苏程度也不相同。像超市，是最先受益的，但也是最先崩盘的，因为疫情加速改变了人的行为方式，新兴渠道不断涌现，疫情促成了超市的回光返照。\n同时，以家居为代表，一些注重线下体验的行业或许在疫情中发展受阻，但如果从长远来看，人们的消费需求和消费习惯并未因疫情而改变。随着疫情趋缓，家居业毫无悬念地迎来全面复苏。5月，全国建材家居景气指数(BHI)达到130.03，环比上涨15.51点，同比上涨40.90点。最终会回来的，还是会回来。\n今天要讨论的公司，就是家居行业的领头羊——美凯龙（601828.SH）。\n公司介绍\n红星美凯龙历史可追溯至1986年，2015年港股上市，2018年A股上市，2019年获得阿里巴巴战略投资，是国内头部家居装饰及家具商场运营商和泛家居业务平台服务商，主要经营和管理自营商场、委管商场、特许经营商城和战略合作商场。\n简单点说，公司提供场地给家居企业，并收取租金。这里面又分两种，一种是自营商场，公司在自营商场中按年度向客户收取租金和管理费用。公司的自营商场又分自有商场和非自有商场，前者是公司拥有所有权，后者是公司租赁的。\n另一种是委管商场等，公司不拥有这些商场，但向其输出管理。公司向合作方派出管理人员提供全面的咨询和委管服务，收取项目品牌咨询费、招商服务费、商业管理咨询费及委托经营管理费。这点跟酒店类似，输出管理，属于轻资产运营模式。\n公司通过自营商场抢占优质地段打造区位优势，再通过委管商场轻资产运营实现更快的扩张及下沉。截至2020年12月31日，公司拥有92家自营商场（其中58家为自有物业），主要分布在一二线城市的优质地段，经营收入稳定。公司拥有273家委管商场，主要分布在三线及其他城市。此外，公司还通过战略合作经营12家家居商场，以特许经营方式授权开业66家特许经营家居建材项目，共包括476家家居建材店。\n\n国内以市场数量和销售网络划分，可以大概分为三大梯队，第一梯队包括美凯龙、居然之家、月星家居和欧亚达，四家企业家居商场数量超过1120家。第二梯队以海外家居商场品牌和中大型区域连锁家居商场品牌为主，包括宜得利、宜家、百安居、富森美等。第三梯队主要为中小型区域性家居商场。\n截至2020年底，美凯龙经营面积达2205万平方米，在连锁网络、市场覆盖和销售规模方面均处于国内领先优势。\n\n那这个领先优势又到底意味着什么呢？\n从家居家具消费说起，尤其是家具消费。家具购买行为对于消费者来说是低频行为，一辈子没几次。所以，消费者心目中对于家具是没有品牌意识的，在购买决策的时候消费者需要临时短时间学习领会和做出决策。所有的家具在消费者眼中都是陌生的，无论你是大厂还是小厂，产品摆在消费者眼前的时候，在消费者看来是同等级别的，消费者更依赖感觉或者销售人员的推动完成决策。\n这意味着，家具消费低频、高价，重场景体现，这些特征决定了线下渠道的不可替代性，并且渠道价值先于品牌价值。无论国内还是国外，泛家居市场零售中，线下的专业零售店占比都是最重。\n\n这里可以看到红星美凯龙的地位，这个地位并不会因为疫情而发生改变，也没有出现像超市这样的被多种渠道（如社区团购，线上超市）打击，所以未来恢复是肯定的。\n除了家居家具商场业务外，2019年，美凯龙成立装修产业集团并在2020年将装修业务提升为第一业务，通过三大品牌矩阵“美凯龙空间美学”、“家倍得”、“更好家”加速入局，争夺前端流量，通过“一站式”家装实现家居消费一体化。\n未来看点\n长远来看，红星美凯龙依然是A股家居行业中不可多得的优质标的。\n从行业需求看，我国家具的需求来自两个方面，一个是城镇化带来的增量房，近年来，我国的城镇化率稳步提升，2019年达60.6%，以第年城镇化率提升0.8-1个百分点预测，每年新增城镇居民1100-1400万人，这意味着未来家居行业发展前景仍然广阔。2020年我国商品销售面积达17.6亿平方米，房地产企业新开工房屋面积为22.4亿平方米，新房装修可期。\n第二个是老房翻新需求，二手房购买者和房产拥有者，因装修老化，装修风格陈旧，局部翻新与全面翻新的需求旺盛，国内一二级城市老房和二手房翻新和改善型消费需求在装修中总量占比达到了54.3%，已经超过了新房。\n\n在新房与老房的共振下，未来家具的需求是有保证的，并且国内会慢慢进入存量房主导时代，房地产的周期对美凯龙的影响会变弱。从2021年的一季度情况看，美凯龙业绩在复苏中。一季度营收33.41亿，同比增长了30.7%，净利润7.24亿，同比增长了80.79，扣非4.13亿，同比增长101.45%，尤其要指出的是，一季度扣非归母净利润同比2019年增长了近40%。\n从公司角度看，公司正在着手降杠杆操作。这一包括公司加快向轻资产转型，未来公司的发展主方向是凭借品牌效应、经营经验，继续通过委管模式下沉。轻资产模式下，合作方提供建立商场的全部开支，美凯龙不需要承担资本支出。从过去经营看，美凯龙的品牌影响力和管理经验都不错，委管商场的出租率在90%以上，这种过去成果也会吸引合作方与美凯龙合作。\n第二是，公司通过资产处置、引入战略合作方等方式降低财务杠杆，2021年5月，美凯龙A股股票非公开发行申请获得核准批复，拟募集资金不超过37亿，其中11.1亿用于偿还有息负债。2021年6月，美凯龙发布公告，与天津远川投资达成《合作框架协议》，天津远川将受让美凯龙旗下7家物流子公司100%股权，目标资产总价值25亿，公司预计本次交易价款合计人民币23.12亿。\n另外，公司还持有大量的家居公司股权，作为包租公，美凯龙很清楚下面合作家居企业的股权价值，2013年起，美凯龙开始战略投资产业链上下游企业，比如欧派家居，2018年-2020年，公司共收到欧派3338万元分红。未来这些公司的股权变现，预计可以为公司带来更多现金，降低财务杠杆。\n在未来发展上，除了原来的卖场业务，公司切入了家装板块，这也是一个万亿级别的市场。根据前瞻产业研究院报告，2020年我国家居家装市场规模超2万亿元，预期未来以7%的年复合增速增长。\n家装市场呈现典型的“大行业，小企业”的特征，还没有出现真正全国性的家装公司。美凯龙2019年成立装修产业集团，通过三大品牌矩阵“美凯龙空间美学”、“家倍得”、“更好家”入局，争夺前端流量。家装业务做是好，不仅可以拓展一个新的增长点，还可以为原有的家具卖场业务引流。\n家装业务的核心点是设计师资源。美凯龙通过“M+高端室内设计大赛”和“星设计”平台，汇聚了36000多名设计师人才资源库，发挥设计师在家装过程中的强大话语权和把控权。以家装和设计师作为客户流量入口的抓手，美凯龙可以整合行业上下游产业链，增强与家居家具公司、经销商、设计师的合作粘性。加上美凯龙全国性的网络，可以充分构建本地化家装网络。在这个“大行业，小企业”的领域，美凯龙的发展空间值得期待。\n总结一下，美凯龙现在有两点在转好，一是业绩开始拐点向上，并且随着存量房逐渐占主导，未来房地产周期性将变弱，二是公司在着手降低杠杆，降低财务风险，减少财务费用，同时公司切入的家装市场有想象空间。\n估值与技术面\n再来讲下估值。\n以A股价格算，当前市值428亿，2020年净利润被破坏了，看2019年，对应2019年的净利润估值是9.13倍，对应扣非是16倍。这个估值不算贵，对比居然之家，当前市值398亿，对应2019年的归母净利润和扣非归母分别是13倍和19倍，美凯龙相对低估。\n在公司基本面稳固，同时有改善的背景下，估值有修复的可能。\n未来看，根据券商的一致预期，当前市值对应2021年、2022年、2023年分别是10.86倍、9.32倍和8.08倍。从公司一季度经营情况看，券商对今年的预期可能偏低。\n\n再讲一下交易面，公司股价目前从大周期来讲，还在底部，这个底部经过了两年多时间的夯实，最近有明显的底部放量现象，这是值得关注的迹象。今年以来，红星美凯龙股价涨幅已经达到29.0%（截至6月25日收盘），远超上证指数的3.9%。\n\n公司今年1季度实现扣非净利润4.12亿元，较去年同期的2.05亿元翻倍。换句话说，随着行业整体回暖，以及存量房时代的来临，家居龙头在估值修复的同时，利润也在快速提升。\n估值修复+利润超预期，红星美凯龙正迎来“戴维斯双击”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01528":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5052206,"commentId":"5052206","gmtCreate":1624877531854,"gmtModify":1663230198828,"authorId":3581922885116926,"author":{"id":3581922885116926,"idStr":"3581922885116926","authorId":3581922885116926,"name":"audreyhutah","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":150024455,"objectIdStr":"150024455","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"K","text":"K","html":"K","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,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