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chewgoh
2021-07-07

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Oil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.

阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。

Oil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.

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chewgoh
·2021-07-07
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After all, the country's government has said for years that it is not worried about not finding buyers for crude oil for a long time to come (thus breaking the sell-off).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear deal held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna starting in early April this year, and have not reached a consensus for three months now. With the election of hardline representative Raisi as Iran's new president, wariness towards the United States in the nuclear negotiations will only intensify. The market has repeatedly postponed the date for Iranian crude oil to return to the market, and the road ahead is currently long and arduous, with an uncertain future. The breakdown of OPEC+ negotiations means that subsequent production increase plans have been shelved, which will further exacerbate the global crude oil supply shortage.</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, with developed economies continuing to outpace emerging economies in their recovery pace. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report raised its 2021 global economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and commuting in many countries have reached their highest levels since the beginning of last year. The travel index of major Eurozone economies is only about 10% lower than before the pandemic, while the travel activity index in the United States is down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, the consumption of aviation kerosene has greater potential for growth than the demand for land transportation fuel. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, further widening the crude oil supply and demand gap.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of a large-scale change in the monetary policy stance of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. Leading economic indicators in Europe and the United States have declined, raising market concerns that the economy may enter a stagflationary or deflationary cycle. According to the \"Merrill Lynch clock\" theory, crude oil prices perform well during stagflation periods, and we believe that the risk of deflation is not significant overall.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices plummet as the UAE plans to unilaterally sell off oil.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-07 22:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Wednesday, the price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract fell sharply during trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2d1234c48fe0de6052894acce79f5f\" tg-width=\"1405\" tg-height=\"873\"></p><p>In terms of news, the the US Dollar Index DXY broke through the previous high of 92.76, reaching a new high since April 6.</p><p>On the other hand, behind the deadlock within OPEC+ regarding whether to increase oil production, a key cartel member—the UAE—has developed a new strategy:<b>Sell as much crude oil as possible before demand dries up.</b>The UAE has the world's largest untapped oil reserves, and this strategy marks the most significant shift in its oil policy in history, breaking with conventional wisdom. After all, the country's government has said for years that it is not worried about not finding buyers for crude oil for a long time to come (thus breaking the sell-off).</p><p>On the supply side, the parties involved in the Iran nuclear deal held multiple rounds of talks in Vienna starting in early April this year, and have not reached a consensus for three months now. With the election of hardline representative Raisi as Iran's new president, wariness towards the United States in the nuclear negotiations will only intensify. The market has repeatedly postponed the date for Iranian crude oil to return to the market, and the road ahead is currently long and arduous, with an uncertain future. The breakdown of OPEC+ negotiations means that subsequent production increase plans have been shelved, which will further exacerbate the global crude oil supply shortage.</p><p>On the demand side, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further, with developed economies continuing to outpace emerging economies in their recovery pace. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report raised its 2021 global economic growth forecast from 4.1% to 5.6%. With the continuous advancement of vaccination and the reopening of the economy, the demand for road travel in Europe and the United States has been significantly released. Public transportation and commuting in many countries have reached their highest levels since the beginning of last year. The travel index of major Eurozone economies is only about 10% lower than before the pandemic, while the travel activity index in the United States is down 6.5% from before the pandemic. With the lifting of travel restrictions, the consumption of aviation kerosene has greater potential for growth than the demand for land transportation fuel. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in June and 99.23 million barrels per day in August, further widening the crude oil supply and demand gap.</p><p>In terms of liquidity, the probability of a large-scale change in the monetary policy stance of major economies in the third quarter is low, and money market interest rates will remain low. Leading economic indicators in Europe and the United States have declined, raising market concerns that the economy may enter a stagflationary or deflationary cycle. According to the \"Merrill Lynch clock\" theory, crude oil prices perform well during stagflation periods, and we believe that the risk of deflation is not significant overall.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40d7f90c920f8b2d2d6c0e89575a430","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634829","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149390842","content_text":"周三盘中，WTI原油期货主力合约价格直线下跌。\n\n消息面上，美元指数DXY突破前高92.76，创4月6日以来新高。\n另一方面，在OPEC+内部关于是否提高石油产量的僵局背后，一个关键的卡特尔成员——阿联酋制定了一项新战略：在需求枯竭之前尽可能多地出售原油。阿联酋是世界上最大的未开采源油储备国，该国的此项战略，标志着其石油政策正在发生历史上最显著的转变，并正在打破传统观念。毕竟多年来该国政府一直表示，他们并不担心在未来很长一段时间内找不到原油买家（从而击破出售）。\n供应方面，伊核协议相关方今年4月初开始在维也纳举行了多轮会谈，至今已持续三个月仍未达成共识。强硬派代表莱西当选伊朗新总统后，在核谈判中对美国的戒备心只会更加强烈。市场对伊朗原油回归市场的日期已经多次推迟，目前看道阻且长、前景难料。而OPEC+谈判破裂，意味着后续增产计划搁浅，将进一步加剧全球面临原油供应紧张的局面；\n需求方面，全球经济增长有望进一步提速，发达经济体复苏步伐继续领先新兴经济体。世界银行发布的最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2021年全球经济增长预期由4.1%上调至5.6%。随着疫苗接种的不断推进和经济的重新开放，欧美道路出行需求得到明显释放。许多国家的公共交通和上班出行都到了去年年初以来的最高水平，其中欧元区各大经济体出行指数仅较疫情前低10%左右，美国出行活动指数较疫情前下降了6.5%。随着出行限制的解除，航空煤油的消费相较于陆上交通燃料需求具有更大的上涨空间。高盛预计6月全球需求达到了9690万桶/天，8月份全球需求将达到9923万桶/天，原油供需缺口将进一步放大。\n流动性方面，三季度主要经济体货币政策立场发生大规模变化的概率较低，货币市场利率仍将保持低位运行态势。欧美经济运行领先指标回落，市场忧虑经济可能进入滞胀或通缩周期。按照“美林时钟”理论，滞涨期原油价格有不错的表现，至于通缩风险我们认为总体而言并不大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3001,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5150906,"commentId":"5150906","gmtCreate":1625668827132,"gmtModify":1663230659349,"authorId":3583788765747608,"author":{"id":3583788765747608,"idStr":"3583788765747608","authorId":3583788765747608,"name":"chewgoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6055bb8e4e84ffecd69fa8239a883344","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140481545,"objectIdStr":"140481545","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":5150963,"commentId":"5150963","gmtCreate":1625668973335,"gmtModify":1635234935571,"authorId":3583487577231849,"author":{"id":3583487577231849,"idStr":"3583487577231849","authorId":3583487577231849,"name":"Jocelynbee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7298f59268fb69f6804df90d69de5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140481545,"objectIdStr":"140481545","type":1,"supId":5150906,"supIdStr":"5150906","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"?","text":"?","html":"?","disclaimerType":0}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}