Haha retail investors in troub-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

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cenziwei
2021-05-26

Haha retail investors in trouble

What does the staggering positive candle in A-shares mean? The dangerous moment is over, and a "double bull market" is here.

挑战四千点，这只是开始。

What does the staggering positive candle in A-shares mean? The dangerous moment is over, and a "double bull market" is here.

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The dangerous moment is over, and a \"double bull market\" is here.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138194497","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"挑战四千点，这只是开始。","content":"<p>On May 25, A-shares saw a long-awaited surge, with the financial sector surging, brokerage stocks continuing to rise, liquor stocks driving the consumer sector up, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen ChiNext indices all rising by more than 2%. Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 21.723 billion yuan, setting a new historical record.</p><p>A large positive candlestick changed investor sentiment, and the focus of market discussion shifted to: Has a bull market arrived? In response, Guotai Junan's strategy team, which recently proclaimed \"challenging 4,000 points,\" once again shouted: \"Challenging 4,000 points is just the beginning.\" Guotai Junan's fixed income team further stated unequivocally that the market will usher in a double bull market in stocks and bonds in the next stage.</p><p>Analysts from Guotai Junan's strategy team, including Chen Xianshun, Fang Yi, and Huang Weichi, commented on yesterday's market performance, stating that as the macroeconomic and external environment shifts from uncertainty to certainty, risk assessments will decline, thereby driving the market from volatility to upward movement.</p><p>On May 25, the market surged and trading volume increased. Our logic is constantly being realized, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following suit. In this regard, we believe that the sideways trading will not last long. If we challenge 4,000 points, brokerage stocks will take the lead, mid-cap blue-chip stocks will take the lead, large-cap blue-chip stocks will follow, and small-cap speculative stocks will have no big show. The aforementioned analyst pointed out that the core driving force behind the rise came from the denominator:</p><p>First, risk assessments have declined. Economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic risk expectations are declining rapidly. The steepest phase of expectations for large-scale price increases and credit tightening has passed, making it easier to loosen policy this year than to tighten it. Second, risk-free returns are difficult to rise and easy to fall. Overseas, inflation expectations implicit in US Treasury bonds have reached a historical high; Domestically, the 10-year Treasury Bond rate continued to fall to 3.08%, and with the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the liquidity advantage is expected to continue. Third, current risk appetite remains basically stable. Risk appetite remains at a low to medium level. Coupled with the fact that valuation earnings are shifting from divergence to convergence, and the micro-trading structure is shifting from collapse to optimization, the upward channel for blue chips has reopened. Guotai Junan Strategy recommends selecting stocks with the largest marginal change in performance from uncertain to certain. The market is expected to see a general rise in blue-chip stocks, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following.</p><p>In another report, Qin Han and Shi Lingling of Guotai Junan's fixed income team stated that the strengthening of \"downward expectations\" for the 10-year Treasury Bond yield between China and the United States, coupled with the strong rebound of the Nasdaq and A-shares, indicates that the view that \"risk-free interest rate expectations\" are declining has gained widespread recognition, thus driving the continued recovery of the equity market.</p><p>The Guotai Junan Fixed Income team compared the current stock market performance to the performance during June and July 2020:</p><p>Investors' perception of risk-free interest rates (wealth management and money market fund yields) continued to decline, money market fund yields fell below 1.5%, and the opportunity cost of buying stocks dropped significantly. Some of the funds pooled together shifted to undervalued sectors, becoming the driving force behind the market rally. The continuous inflow of incremental funds strengthened the \"one-wave\" upward trend of undervalued sectors, forming a logical closed loop of \"undervalued sectors rising - the Shanghai Composite Index rising - strengthened economic recovery expectations - the bond market falling - net asset value-based wealth management losses - investors' perception of risk-free interest rates declining - undervalued sectors rising.\" The Guotai Junan Fixed Income team reiterated their view of a bull market in both stocks and bonds, believing that in the bond market, with inflation expectations peaking and multiple departments introducing policies to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" of commodities, the \"most dangerous\" time for inflation has passed, and the expectation of long-term stable liquidity is relatively clear. The judgment that the domestic bond market is in a \"mini bull market\" is becoming increasingly accepted.</p><p>The team stated that, referring to the pattern of an average decline of 50 basis points in 10-year Treasury Bond interest rates during a \"mini-bull market,\" it is expected that the first target level of 3.0% for 10-year Treasury Bond interest rates will not be the end of this round of market rally, and the next stage is aimed at a 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 2.8%.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What does the staggering positive candle in A-shares mean? 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The dangerous moment is over, and a \"double bull market\" is here.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 09:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On May 25, A-shares saw a long-awaited surge, with the financial sector surging, brokerage stocks continuing to rise, liquor stocks driving the consumer sector up, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen ChiNext indices all rising by more than 2%. Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 21.723 billion yuan, setting a new historical record.</p><p>A large positive candlestick changed investor sentiment, and the focus of market discussion shifted to: Has a bull market arrived? In response, Guotai Junan's strategy team, which recently proclaimed \"challenging 4,000 points,\" once again shouted: \"Challenging 4,000 points is just the beginning.\" Guotai Junan's fixed income team further stated unequivocally that the market will usher in a double bull market in stocks and bonds in the next stage.</p><p>Analysts from Guotai Junan's strategy team, including Chen Xianshun, Fang Yi, and Huang Weichi, commented on yesterday's market performance, stating that as the macroeconomic and external environment shifts from uncertainty to certainty, risk assessments will decline, thereby driving the market from volatility to upward movement.</p><p>On May 25, the market surged and trading volume increased. Our logic is constantly being realized, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following suit. In this regard, we believe that the sideways trading will not last long. If we challenge 4,000 points, brokerage stocks will take the lead, mid-cap blue-chip stocks will take the lead, large-cap blue-chip stocks will follow, and small-cap speculative stocks will have no big show. The aforementioned analyst pointed out that the core driving force behind the rise came from the denominator:</p><p>First, risk assessments have declined. Economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic risk expectations are declining rapidly. The steepest phase of expectations for large-scale price increases and credit tightening has passed, making it easier to loosen policy this year than to tighten it. Second, risk-free returns are difficult to rise and easy to fall. Overseas, inflation expectations implicit in US Treasury bonds have reached a historical high; Domestically, the 10-year Treasury Bond rate continued to fall to 3.08%, and with the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate, the liquidity advantage is expected to continue. Third, current risk appetite remains basically stable. Risk appetite remains at a low to medium level. Coupled with the fact that valuation earnings are shifting from divergence to convergence, and the micro-trading structure is shifting from collapse to optimization, the upward channel for blue chips has reopened. Guotai Junan Strategy recommends selecting stocks with the largest marginal change in performance from uncertain to certain. The market is expected to see a general rise in blue-chip stocks, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks leading the way and large-cap blue-chip stocks following.</p><p>In another report, Qin Han and Shi Lingling of Guotai Junan's fixed income team stated that the strengthening of \"downward expectations\" for the 10-year Treasury Bond yield between China and the United States, coupled with the strong rebound of the Nasdaq and A-shares, indicates that the view that \"risk-free interest rate expectations\" are declining has gained widespread recognition, thus driving the continued recovery of the equity market.</p><p>The Guotai Junan Fixed Income team compared the current stock market performance to the performance during June and July 2020:</p><p>Investors' perception of risk-free interest rates (wealth management and money market fund yields) continued to decline, money market fund yields fell below 1.5%, and the opportunity cost of buying stocks dropped significantly. Some of the funds pooled together shifted to undervalued sectors, becoming the driving force behind the market rally. The continuous inflow of incremental funds strengthened the \"one-wave\" upward trend of undervalued sectors, forming a logical closed loop of \"undervalued sectors rising - the Shanghai Composite Index rising - strengthened economic recovery expectations - the bond market falling - net asset value-based wealth management losses - investors' perception of risk-free interest rates declining - undervalued sectors rising.\" The Guotai Junan Fixed Income team reiterated their view of a bull market in both stocks and bonds, believing that in the bond market, with inflation expectations peaking and multiple departments introducing policies to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" of commodities, the \"most dangerous\" time for inflation has passed, and the expectation of long-term stable liquidity is relatively clear. The judgment that the domestic bond market is in a \"mini bull market\" is becoming increasingly accepted.</p><p>The team stated that, referring to the pattern of an average decline of 50 basis points in 10-year Treasury Bond interest rates during a \"mini-bull market,\" it is expected that the first target level of 3.0% for 10-year Treasury Bond interest rates will not be the end of this round of market rally, and the next stage is aimed at a 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate of 2.8%.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"09141":"华夏亚投债-U"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631262","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138194497","content_text":"5月25日，A股迎来久违的大涨，大金融板块爆发，券商股持续拉升，白酒股带动消费板块走强，沪深创三大指数均上涨超2%，北向资金净买入217.23亿元，刷新历史新高。一根大阳线改变了投资者信仰，市场讨论焦点转向：牛市是否来了？对此，前段时间喊出“挑战四千点”的国君策略团队再次高呼：“挑战四千点，这只是开始。“ 国君固收团队更是旗帜鲜明地表示，下一阶段，市场将迎来股债双牛。国君策略团队陈显顺、方奕、黄维驰等分析师在点评昨日行情时表示，随着宏观与外围环境由不确定走向确定，风险评价将会下降，由此驱动行情从震荡走向拉升：5月25日市场大涨，成交量放大，我们的逻辑正在不断地被兑现之中，中盘蓝筹领跑、大盘蓝筹跟随的趋势也在兑现之下。就此，我们认为：横盘不长久，挑战四千点，券商股打头阵，中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随，小妖票没大戏。上述分析师指出，拉升的核心驱动力来自分母端：第一，风险评价下降。经济政策不确定性与宏观风险预期正在快速下行，包括大宗涨价以及信用收紧预期斜率最为陡峭的阶段已经过去，年内政策端易松难紧。第二，无风险收益率上行难、下行易。海外方面，美债隐含的通胀预期已处历史高点；国内方面，十年期国债利率继续回落至3.08%，伴随人民币汇率走强，流动性优势有望延续。第三，当前风险偏好基本保持稳定。风险偏好仍处中低位置，叠加估值盈利从背离走向收敛，以及微观交易结构从崩塌走向优化，蓝筹上行通道再度打开。国君策略建议选择业绩从不确定走向确定边际变化最大的股票，预计市场将出现蓝筹股普涨格局，差异在于中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随。国君固收团队覃汉、石玲玲在另一份报告中表示，中美十年期国债利率“下行预期”加强，纳指和A股强势反弹，说明“无风险利率预期”下行的观点已经得到广泛认可，从而推动了权益市场持续修复。国君固收团队将眼下的股市行情类比 2020年6-7月期间的行情：投资者心中的无风险利率（理财、货基收益率）持续下降，货币基金收益率破 1.5%，买股票的机会成本大幅下降，部分抱团资金切换至低估值板块成为行情发动者，增量资金持续进场强化了低估值板块的“一波流”上涨行情，形成了“低估值板块上涨—上证综指上涨—经济复苏预期强化—债市下跌—净值型理财亏钱—投资者心中的无风险利率下行—低估值板块上涨”的逻辑闭环。国君固收团队重申了股债双牛的看法，认为债市方面，随着通胀预期见顶，多部门出台政策做好大宗商品“保供稳价”，通胀“最危险”的时候已经过去，而资金面长期平稳的预期较为明确，国内债市处于“小牛市”的判断越来越受认可。该团队表示，参考一轮“小牛市”10年国债利率平均下行50个基点的规律，预计10 年国债利率第一目标位3.0%不会是本轮行情的终点，下一阶段看向10年国债利率2.8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"09141":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4037,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}