??-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Like
Comment
Favorite

Yunjuan
2021-05-26

??

Both the central bank and the market are facing a turning point! The Fed is no longer a good friend of U.S. stocks

剑桥大学皇后学院的院长、安联集团首席经济顾问、前PIMCO总裁El-Erian近日在英国金融时报上发表专栏文章，提醒市场，如今央行和市场都面临棘手的转折点，与其沉溺于宽松流动性带来短期欢愉，应该忍受阵

Both the central bank and the market are facing a turning point! The Fed is no longer a good friend of U.S. stocks

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Like

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":132039048,"tweetId":"132039048","gmtCreate":1622043691784,"gmtModify":1704178471483,"author":{"id":3568774272934412,"idStr":"3568774272934412","authorId":3568774272934412,"authorIdStr":"3568774272934412","name":"Yunjuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7a79fb2420509d517b2b9e7884b296","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132039048","repostId":2138117175,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138117175","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622036296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138117175?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Both the central bank and the market are facing a turning point! The Fed is no longer a good friend of U.S. stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138117175","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"剑桥大学皇后学院的院长、安联集团首席经济顾问、前PIMCO总裁El-Erian近日在英国金融时报上发表专栏文章，提醒市场，如今央行和市场都面临棘手的转折点，与其沉溺于宽松流动性带来短期欢愉，应该忍受阵","content":"<p>El-Erian, president of Queen's College, Cambridge University, chief economic adviser of Allianz Group, and former president of PIMCO, recently published a column in the Financial Times, reminding the market that both the central bank and the market are now facing a difficult turning point. Instead of indulging in loose liquidity to bring short-term joy, we should endure the pain and prevent the mistakes of the last financial crisis from being repeated.</p><p>El-Erian believes that compared with the financial crisis in 2008, the current banking industry has more capital and more restrictions on risk-taking. However, the speculative mentality and risk behavior that triggered the financial crisis have not dissipated. On the contrary, they have transformed, migrated and bred in non-bank entities. And until recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>And other guidelines that regulators have been adhering to, inadvertently acting as a booster.</p><p>Why is the financial system still fragile? El-Erian said that since the beginning of this year, the financial system has overcome three dangers: the sudden rise in U.S. bond yields in January, retail investors used GameStop stocks to cut institutional leeks in February, and the Archegos century liquidation in March. The latter caused about $10 billion in losses to the banking system. Although the systemic threat posed by these three dangers to the financial system is not great, it is obvious that the financial system is vulnerable to market collapses, which exposes the economy to unnecessary risks.</p><p>El-Erian criticized regulators, especially central banks, for fueling the flames. He said that the adverse secondary effects of the above three dangerous situations on the financial system were more contained by luck rather than crisis prevention measures. However, the speculation fueled by the massive liquidity of the central bank has \"revived\", accompanied by the emergence of a large number of speculative positions. Then, some factors should not be ignored. They are like gunpowder. Once ignited, they will lead to serious financial accidents.</p><p>But fortunately, under the shadow of volatile inflation and financial instability, the central bank seems to have \"awakened\": many central banks, including the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve, have released signals to end loose monetary policy early. While the Fed downplayed market concerns about inflation and reiterated that the Fed is not considering cutting QE, minutes of the Fed's policy meeting released last week showed that some officials want to talk about the possibility of cutting QE \"at future meetings.\"</p><p>The signal of tightening policy released by the central bank triggered a slight shock in the financial market. El-Erian believes that if it waits too long for fear of market overreaction, the Fed faces a complex political turn, especially considering that the Fed has become a \"hostage\" of the \"average inflation target\" policy framework, which is in El-Erian does not seem to apply to economic structural changes in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era.</p><p>He said that if the current Federal Reserve changes its monetary policy stance, it will bring the dual risks of market volatility and loss of credibility. However, if the Fed follows the dogma and sticks to the rearward policy stance, it will bring greater harm to the financial system. \"As far as investors are concerned, the Fed should be encouraged to pivot early, rather than just basking in the glee of liquidity waves. Learn from the experience of banks during the financial crisis, and embrace the short-term pain rather than risk making major political mistakes that damage asset values, market functioning, economic and social well-being,\" El-Erian suggested.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Both the central bank and the market are facing a turning point! The Fed is no longer a good friend of U.S. stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoth the central bank and the market are facing a turning point! The Fed is no longer a good friend of U.S. stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>El-Erian, president of Queen's College, Cambridge University, chief economic adviser of Allianz Group, and former president of PIMCO, recently published a column in the Financial Times, reminding the market that both the central bank and the market are now facing a difficult turning point. Instead of indulging in loose liquidity to bring short-term joy, we should endure the pain and prevent the mistakes of the last financial crisis from being repeated.</p><p>El-Erian believes that compared with the financial crisis in 2008, the current banking industry has more capital and more restrictions on risk-taking. However, the speculative mentality and risk behavior that triggered the financial crisis have not dissipated. On the contrary, they have transformed, migrated and bred in non-bank entities. And until recently,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>And other guidelines that regulators have been adhering to, inadvertently acting as a booster.</p><p>Why is the financial system still fragile? El-Erian said that since the beginning of this year, the financial system has overcome three dangers: the sudden rise in U.S. bond yields in January, retail investors used GameStop stocks to cut institutional leeks in February, and the Archegos century liquidation in March. The latter caused about $10 billion in losses to the banking system. Although the systemic threat posed by these three dangers to the financial system is not great, it is obvious that the financial system is vulnerable to market collapses, which exposes the economy to unnecessary risks.</p><p>El-Erian criticized regulators, especially central banks, for fueling the flames. He said that the adverse secondary effects of the above three dangerous situations on the financial system were more contained by luck rather than crisis prevention measures. However, the speculation fueled by the massive liquidity of the central bank has \"revived\", accompanied by the emergence of a large number of speculative positions. Then, some factors should not be ignored. They are like gunpowder. Once ignited, they will lead to serious financial accidents.</p><p>But fortunately, under the shadow of volatile inflation and financial instability, the central bank seems to have \"awakened\": many central banks, including the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve, have released signals to end loose monetary policy early. While the Fed downplayed market concerns about inflation and reiterated that the Fed is not considering cutting QE, minutes of the Fed's policy meeting released last week showed that some officials want to talk about the possibility of cutting QE \"at future meetings.\"</p><p>The signal of tightening policy released by the central bank triggered a slight shock in the financial market. El-Erian believes that if it waits too long for fear of market overreaction, the Fed faces a complex political turn, especially considering that the Fed has become a \"hostage\" of the \"average inflation target\" policy framework, which is in El-Erian does not seem to apply to economic structural changes in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era.</p><p>He said that if the current Federal Reserve changes its monetary policy stance, it will bring the dual risks of market volatility and loss of credibility. However, if the Fed follows the dogma and sticks to the rearward policy stance, it will bring greater harm to the financial system. \"As far as investors are concerned, the Fed should be encouraged to pivot early, rather than just basking in the glee of liquidity waves. Learn from the experience of banks during the financial crisis, and embrace the short-term pain rather than risk making major political mistakes that damage asset values, market functioning, economic and social well-being,\" El-Erian suggested.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631236\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3631236","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138117175","content_text":"剑桥大学皇后学院的院长、安联集团首席经济顾问、前PIMCO总裁El-Erian近日在英国金融时报上发表专栏文章，提醒市场，如今央行和市场都面临棘手的转折点，与其沉溺于宽松流动性带来短期欢愉，应该忍受阵痛，防止再犯上一次金融危机时的错误。\nEl-Erian认为，和2008年金融危机时期相比，目前银行业的资本金更为充足，在风险承担方面也受到更多限制，但引爆金融危机的投机心态和风险行为并没有就此消散，相反，它们已经转化、迁移并滋生在非银行实体中。而直到最近，中央银行和其他监管机构一直坚守的准则，无意中充当了助推器。\n为什么说金融体系依然脆弱？El-Erian表示，今年以来，金融体系已经克服了三次险情：分别是1月份美债收益率的突然上升、2月份散户投资者借着GameStop股票割机构韭菜、以及3月份Archegos世纪爆仓事件，后者给银行体系造成了约100亿美元的损失。虽然这三次险情给金融体系构成的系统性威胁并不大，但显然，金融体系容易受到市场崩溃的影响，这使得经济面临不必要的风险。\nEl-Erian批评了监管者，特别是中央银行在其中起到的推波助澜作用。他表示，上述三次险情给金融体系造成的不良二次影响，更多是靠运气因素所遏制，而非危机防范措施。而由中央银行海量流动性助长的投机行为又“死灰复燃”了起来，与之相伴的是大量投机性头寸的出现。然后，有些因素不应被忽略，他们就像火药一样，一旦被点燃将会导致严重的金融事故发生。\n但所幸的是，在震荡的通货膨胀和金融不稳定阴影之下，中央银行似乎“觉醒”了：包括英国央行、欧洲央行、美联储在内的多家央行都释放了提早结束宽松货币政策的信号。美联储虽然淡化了市场对通胀的担忧，并重申美联储没有考虑削减QE，但上周公布的美联储政策会议纪要显示表明，一些官员希望 \"在未来的会议上 \"谈论缩减QE的可能性。\n央行所释放的收紧政策信号引发了金融市场的小幅震荡。El-Erian认为，如果因为忌惮市场反应过大而等待太久，美联储面临着复杂的政治转向，特别是考虑到联储已经沦为“平均通胀目标”政策框架的“人质”，这一框架在El-Erian看来并不适用于后新冠疫情时代的经济结构变化。\n他表示，当前的美联储如果转变货币政策立场，将带来市场波动和信誉丧失的双重风险。但如果联储谨遵教条，坚持后视的政策立场，则会给金融体系带来更大的危害。“就投资者而言，应该鼓励美联储及早转向，而不是仅仅沉浸在流动性浪潮的欢愉之下。从金融危机时期银行的经验中吸取教训，与其冒着犯损害资产价值、市场运作、经济、社会福祉的重大政治错误，不如迎接短期的阵痛。”El-Erian建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}