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2021-06-23

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Berkey Investment: Meituan, Pinduoduo are the next Tesla-style enterprises

总部位于爱丁堡的基金管理者柏基投资(Baillie Gifford)在过去110多年里，通过将信号与噪音分离开来，创造了令人瞩目的投资记录。该公司投资于具有长期增长潜力的公开上市公司和私有企业，而不考

Berkey Investment: Meituan, Pinduoduo are the next Tesla-style enterprises

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":121804317,"tweetId":"121804317","gmtCreate":1624457846139,"gmtModify":1703837368507,"author":{"id":3573541608753389,"idStr":"3573541608753389","authorId":3573541608753389,"authorIdStr":"3573541608753389","name":"EuniceLee","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/746ef6f7f3258deedfd721080b8deaeb","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>；</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>；</body></html>","text":"；","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121804317","repostId":1163510991,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163510991","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1624447986,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163510991?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Berkey Investment: Meituan, Pinduoduo are the next Tesla-style enterprises","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163510991","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"总部位于爱丁堡的基金管理者柏基投资(Baillie Gifford)在过去110多年里，通过将信号与噪音分离开来，创造了令人瞩目的投资记录。该公司投资于具有长期增长潜力的公开上市公司和私有企业，而不考","content":"Baillie Gifford, an Edinburgh-based fund manager, has set a remarkable investment record by separating signal from noise over the past 110 years. The firm invests in publicly traded and privately held companies with long-term growth potential, regardless of macroeconomic variables and short-term market volatility.The company's long-term investment vision and familiarity with new technologies make Tom Slater, its head of U.S. equity assets and portfolio manager of U.S. stocks and long-term global growth funds, a natural choice for Barron's recent Centennial Roundtable, whose members will be tasked with imagining the next 100 years.As a continuation of the conversation, below is an edited interview where we focus on the companies that offer the most exciting investment opportunities. Slater is co-manager with Barron Roundtable member James Anderson, managing the roughly £ 18 bn ($25 bn) Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT) and the $145 million Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth fund (BGGSX) Co-manager of. Both companies have a five-star rating from Morningstar. In the 12 months ended March 31, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust rose 99%; In the year ending June 15, U.S. With a total return of 73%, the Equity Growth fund ranks among the top in Morningstar's big growth stock category.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e534c9728cc83586e06170e5574ff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\">Tom Slater, Photo: Photograph by Matt MarcusBarron's: Growth stocks are facing challenges after a brilliant 2020. Are you worried about that?Tom Slater: We don't pay attention to short-term fluctuations in stock prices. We focus on interesting companies with long-term growth opportunities. Our average holding period is 5 to 10 years. Only in such a timeframe can fundamentals drive the stock price.Many people try to focus on predicting economic variables. But they are inherently extremely difficult to predict, if not completely impossible. At the same time, there are many predictable trends in fields such as communications, computing, machine learning, energy generation and storage, gene sequencing, and synthetic biology. We focus on predictable trends and the opportunities they create.Barron's: At our Centennial Roundtable, you observed that some technologies in biology, if not better than Moore's Law, at least follow a similar trajectory. How should investors profit from this?Tom Slater: The decline in the cost curve of gene sequencing is far greater than the decline in the cost of computing power under Moore's Law. Now, the cost reduction is expanding into related fields. Gene sequencing is generating large amounts of medical data, and the cost of processing and storing this data is rapidly falling, as is the cost of applying machine learning to this data.One adjuvant therapy is our ability to start printing (copying) DNA or RNA. Moderna (MRNA) is printing RNA sequences. We are talking about programming biology, except that instead of encoding with 1s and zeros, we use Gs, Ts, As and Cs (guanine, thymine, adenine and cytosine-sequenced nucleic acid bases that make up the genome).Moderna's ability to produce safe and effective vaccines based on messenger RNA should boost confidence in the company's ability to produce vaccines to meet other huge, unmet needs, such as for HIV/AIDS. Another synthetic biology company, Ginkgo Bioworks, will go public through a merger with a SPAC. It is writing strings of DNA code that can be used in biomanufacturing processes.Barron's: Wouldn't Moderna's success attract competitors?Tom Slater: When a technology undergoes drastic changes, not just the evolution of an existing paradigm, it is often difficult for established companies to accept this change. More likely, this technology will empower new businesses and new business models. So far, this has been the case in the automotive industry with the development of electric vehicles or electric vehicles. Interestingly, pharmaceutical companies with large vaccine franchises have yet to develop an effective Novel Coronavirus vaccine.Barron's: Speaking of electric vehicles, Baillie Gifford has cut her Tesla holdings from a peak position of more than 7% to less than 2%. Why is that?Tom Slater: We still have a large stake in Tesla. Part of this is because the sell-off reflects the strength of the company's stock price, as well as the company's operational success in driving the stock price higher. Part of the reason is that this sell-off is just considering the possibilities of looking up from here.Barron's: Who is the next Tesla in electric vehicles and more broadly?Tom Slater: China is the largest auto market in the world, and I would be surprised if there were no domestic competitors in China to challenge Tesla.We are investors in NIO (NIO), and NIO has the opportunity to be such a player.What features make Tesla so interesting? With over 100 million cars sold each year, this is a huge market. They approached this in a unique way, with a founder and CEO bundling most of his wealth to the company. Tesla doggedly pursues a long-term vision and doesn't have to worry too much about what the stock market thinks. During our ownership, Tesla's stock price has fallen by more than 30% 10 times.Moderna has platform-type technology with a wide enough application to be very interesting as well. Illumina (ILMN), which makes genome sequencing instruments, has a similar opportunity.Chinese companies, such as Meituan (3690), which focuses on local services, and Pinduoduo (PDD) in the retail sector, are attractive, partly because of their ambitions, and they are gradually changing the entire supply chain of their industries.In Western markets, delivering pre-processed foods began as an alternative to takeout, while in China, the scope is much larger because there is more culture of eating pre-processed foods. In China, kitchens in apartment buildings are getting smaller and smaller, and these apartment buildings are being designed for efficient food delivery service infrastructure. When you are building a reliable fast delivery infrastructure, related industries emerge as the times require.ByteDance is also very charming。 Its social media subsidiary TikTok has sparked controversy in the U.S., but ByteDance is 95% about China, how rapidly the company has grown in size in the domestic advertising market. In China, large enterprises led by founders are taking full advantage of the scale advantage of the domestic market.Barron's: Do you prefer to invest in companies led by founders as CEOs?Tom Slater: We want to invest in companies led by people who optimize for long-term results. It's more common in founders, but that's not to say you can't see it in professional CEOs.Since 2016, Francis deSouza has served as CEO of Immena. The company has a large revenue base, is highly profitable and is growing in a predictable way. Last year, based on its forecast of the market direction in the next 5 to 10 years, Inmena bid $8 billion to acquire Grail, a pre-revenue developer of cancer blood tests. The stock market doesn't like this practice, but it's exactly what founders do.Barron's: Which Private Enterprises Should Investors Watch?Tom Slater: Private companies like ByteDance and SpaceX have a market value of tens of billions of dollars. SpaceX is trying to reduce the cost of getting into space by several orders of magnitude, and it is creating a new market: commercial access to space. We are also an investor in Relativity Space, which is using 3D printing technology to build rockets.Barron's: Recently, you have reduced your holdings in Amazon.com. Why?Tom Slater: We have been shareholders of Amazon for 16 years. Before last year, any reduction was for diversification within the fund. But Amazon is still a huge market for us, and it still faces some major opportunities. The grocery business is one of them, a massive category that is slowly going online.On the other hand, Jeffrey Bezos's retirement from the CEO position is an important factor in our analysis of the company, coupled with the recent retirement of Jeff Wilk, who runs the consumer goods business (Bezos will become executive chairman on July 5). If you think Bezos's vision and drive are important for Amazon to get this far, even his partial exit is a reason to be more cautious.Barron's: What other investments are you excited about?Tom Slater: Lemonade (LMND) started out as a company selling renters insurance, and this company is perfect for online sales-especially mobile sales. This company creates a great consumer experience. It allows clients to designate a charity to accept excess floats in their insurance pool, which creates an incentive to not overstate claims. Renters insurance is usually the first insurance product people will buy. If the experience is great, they will consider purchasing the same brand of pet, car or homeowners insurance. Lemonade is building a modern technology stack in an industry where large vendors still run in mainstream frameworks.We recently invested in 10X Genomics (TXG) and Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX). The common theme, once again, is that the efficiency of applying information technology far exceeds that of existing companies.Affirm Holdings (AFRM) also fits into this theme. Point-of-sale loans have traditionally been a bad experience for consumers, with high interest rates and hefty penalties if you don't pay. By using new technology, Affirm has created a more consumer-oriented experience, driving more people to use the service. The runway for this pattern is very long.Barron's: Under what circumstances will the lack of profits become an obstacle to investment?Tom Slater: Whether a company is currently profitable has little to do with how much value it creates. In the case of a software-as-a-service (SAAS) company, signing a new customer can cost a lot of money in the first year, but the revenue stream generated by this transaction can last for decades. As an investor, I want companies to sign as many clients as possible, which means they will lose a lot of money in the beginning. But if they can retain those customers, the value creation could be massive.Barron's: Thank you, Tom.Text | Barron's contributor Lauren R. Rublin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkey Investment: Meituan, Pinduoduo are the next Tesla-style enterprises</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkey Investment: Meituan, Pinduoduo are the next Tesla-style enterprises\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\nBarrons巴伦 \n2021-06-23 19:33\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nBaillie Gifford, an Edinburgh-based fund manager, has set a remarkable investment record by separating signal from noise over the past 110 years. The firm invests in publicly traded and privately held companies with long-term growth potential, regardless of macroeconomic variables and short-term market volatility.The company's long-term investment vision and familiarity with new technologies make Tom Slater, its head of U.S. equity assets and portfolio manager of U.S. stocks and long-term global growth funds, a natural choice for Barron's recent Centennial Roundtable, whose members will be tasked with imagining the next 100 years.As a continuation of the conversation, below is an edited interview where we focus on the companies that offer the most exciting investment opportunities. Slater is co-manager with Barron Roundtable member James Anderson, managing the roughly £ 18 bn ($25 bn) Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT) and the $145 million Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth fund (BGGSX) Co-manager of. Both companies have a five-star rating from Morningstar. In the 12 months ended March 31, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust rose 99%; In the year ending June 15, U.S. With a total return of 73%, the Equity Growth fund ranks among the top in Morningstar's big growth stock category.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e534c9728cc83586e06170e5574ff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\">Tom Slater, Photo: Photograph by Matt MarcusBarron's: Growth stocks are facing challenges after a brilliant 2020. Are you worried about that?Tom Slater: We don't pay attention to short-term fluctuations in stock prices. We focus on interesting companies with long-term growth opportunities. Our average holding period is 5 to 10 years. Only in such a timeframe can fundamentals drive the stock price.Many people try to focus on predicting economic variables. But they are inherently extremely difficult to predict, if not completely impossible. At the same time, there are many predictable trends in fields such as communications, computing, machine learning, energy generation and storage, gene sequencing, and synthetic biology. We focus on predictable trends and the opportunities they create.Barron's: At our Centennial Roundtable, you observed that some technologies in biology, if not better than Moore's Law, at least follow a similar trajectory. How should investors profit from this?Tom Slater: The decline in the cost curve of gene sequencing is far greater than the decline in the cost of computing power under Moore's Law. Now, the cost reduction is expanding into related fields. Gene sequencing is generating large amounts of medical data, and the cost of processing and storing this data is rapidly falling, as is the cost of applying machine learning to this data.One adjuvant therapy is our ability to start printing (copying) DNA or RNA. Moderna (MRNA) is printing RNA sequences. We are talking about programming biology, except that instead of encoding with 1s and zeros, we use Gs, Ts, As and Cs (guanine, thymine, adenine and cytosine-sequenced nucleic acid bases that make up the genome).Moderna's ability to produce safe and effective vaccines based on messenger RNA should boost confidence in the company's ability to produce vaccines to meet other huge, unmet needs, such as for HIV/AIDS. Another synthetic biology company, Ginkgo Bioworks, will go public through a merger with a SPAC. It is writing strings of DNA code that can be used in biomanufacturing processes.Barron's: Wouldn't Moderna's success attract competitors?Tom Slater: When a technology undergoes drastic changes, not just the evolution of an existing paradigm, it is often difficult for established companies to accept this change. More likely, this technology will empower new businesses and new business models. So far, this has been the case in the automotive industry with the development of electric vehicles or electric vehicles. Interestingly, pharmaceutical companies with large vaccine franchises have yet to develop an effective Novel Coronavirus vaccine.Barron's: Speaking of electric vehicles, Baillie Gifford has cut her Tesla holdings from a peak position of more than 7% to less than 2%. Why is that?Tom Slater: We still have a large stake in Tesla. Part of this is because the sell-off reflects the strength of the company's stock price, as well as the company's operational success in driving the stock price higher. Part of the reason is that this sell-off is just considering the possibilities of looking up from here.Barron's: Who is the next Tesla in electric vehicles and more broadly?Tom Slater: China is the largest auto market in the world, and I would be surprised if there were no domestic competitors in China to challenge Tesla.We are investors in NIO (NIO), and NIO has the opportunity to be such a player.What features make Tesla so interesting? With over 100 million cars sold each year, this is a huge market. They approached this in a unique way, with a founder and CEO bundling most of his wealth to the company. Tesla doggedly pursues a long-term vision and doesn't have to worry too much about what the stock market thinks. During our ownership, Tesla's stock price has fallen by more than 30% 10 times.Moderna has platform-type technology with a wide enough application to be very interesting as well. Illumina (ILMN), which makes genome sequencing instruments, has a similar opportunity.Chinese companies, such as Meituan (3690), which focuses on local services, and Pinduoduo (PDD) in the retail sector, are attractive, partly because of their ambitions, and they are gradually changing the entire supply chain of their industries.In Western markets, delivering pre-processed foods began as an alternative to takeout, while in China, the scope is much larger because there is more culture of eating pre-processed foods. In China, kitchens in apartment buildings are getting smaller and smaller, and these apartment buildings are being designed for efficient food delivery service infrastructure. When you are building a reliable fast delivery infrastructure, related industries emerge as the times require.ByteDance is also very charming。 Its social media subsidiary TikTok has sparked controversy in the U.S., but ByteDance is 95% about China, how rapidly the company has grown in size in the domestic advertising market. In China, large enterprises led by founders are taking full advantage of the scale advantage of the domestic market.Barron's: Do you prefer to invest in companies led by founders as CEOs?Tom Slater: We want to invest in companies led by people who optimize for long-term results. It's more common in founders, but that's not to say you can't see it in professional CEOs.Since 2016, Francis deSouza has served as CEO of Immena. The company has a large revenue base, is highly profitable and is growing in a predictable way. Last year, based on its forecast of the market direction in the next 5 to 10 years, Inmena bid $8 billion to acquire Grail, a pre-revenue developer of cancer blood tests. The stock market doesn't like this practice, but it's exactly what founders do.Barron's: Which Private Enterprises Should Investors Watch?Tom Slater: Private companies like ByteDance and SpaceX have a market value of tens of billions of dollars. SpaceX is trying to reduce the cost of getting into space by several orders of magnitude, and it is creating a new market: commercial access to space. We are also an investor in Relativity Space, which is using 3D printing technology to build rockets.Barron's: Recently, you have reduced your holdings in Amazon.com. Why?Tom Slater: We have been shareholders of Amazon for 16 years. Before last year, any reduction was for diversification within the fund. But Amazon is still a huge market for us, and it still faces some major opportunities. The grocery business is one of them, a massive category that is slowly going online.On the other hand, Jeffrey Bezos's retirement from the CEO position is an important factor in our analysis of the company, coupled with the recent retirement of Jeff Wilk, who runs the consumer goods business (Bezos will become executive chairman on July 5). If you think Bezos's vision and drive are important for Amazon to get this far, even his partial exit is a reason to be more cautious.Barron's: What other investments are you excited about?Tom Slater: Lemonade (LMND) started out as a company selling renters insurance, and this company is perfect for online sales-especially mobile sales. This company creates a great consumer experience. It allows clients to designate a charity to accept excess floats in their insurance pool, which creates an incentive to not overstate claims. Renters insurance is usually the first insurance product people will buy. If the experience is great, they will consider purchasing the same brand of pet, car or homeowners insurance. Lemonade is building a modern technology stack in an industry where large vendors still run in mainstream frameworks.We recently invested in 10X Genomics (TXG) and Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX). The common theme, once again, is that the efficiency of applying information technology far exceeds that of existing companies.Affirm Holdings (AFRM) also fits into this theme. Point-of-sale loans have traditionally been a bad experience for consumers, with high interest rates and hefty penalties if you don't pay. By using new technology, Affirm has created a more consumer-oriented experience, driving more people to use the service. The runway for this pattern is very long.Barron's: Under what circumstances will the lack of profits become an obstacle to investment?Tom Slater: Whether a company is currently profitable has little to do with how much value it creates. In the case of a software-as-a-service (SAAS) company, signing a new customer can cost a lot of money in the first year, but the revenue stream generated by this transaction can last for decades. As an investor, I want companies to sign as many clients as possible, which means they will lose a lot of money in the beginning. But if they can retain those customers, the value creation could be massive.Barron's: Thank you, Tom.Text | Barron's contributor Lauren R. Rublin\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7f74a62c44767fb8f0a4bfbf0d91bc","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","TSLA":"特斯拉","PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163510991","content_text":"总部位于爱丁堡的基金管理者柏基投资(Baillie Gifford)在过去110多年里，通过将信号与噪音分离开来，创造了令人瞩目的投资记录。该公司投资于具有长期增长潜力的公开上市公司和私有企业，而不考虑宏观经济变量和短期市场波动。\n该公司的长期投资视野和对新技术的熟悉程度，使其美国权益资产主管、美股和长期全球增长基金的投资组合经理汤姆·斯莱特(Tom Slater)成为《巴伦周刊》最近举办的百年圆桌会议(Centennial Roundtable)的自然之选，该圆桌会议的成员将负责畅想未来100年。\n作为对话的延续，下文是经过编辑的采访，我们重点关注那些提供最令人兴奋的投资机会的公司。斯莱特与巴伦圆桌会议成员詹姆斯 · 安德森(James Anderson)共同担任联席经理，管理着约180亿英镑(合250亿美元)的 Baillie Gifford’s Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT) ，并担任1.45亿美元的 Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth fund (BGGSX)的联席经理。这两家公司都获得了晨星的五星评级。在截至3月31日的12个月中，Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust上涨了99% ; 在截至6月15日的一年中，U.S. Equity Growth fund的总回报率为73% ，在晨星公司的大成长股类别中位居前列。\n汤姆·斯莱特(Tom Slater)，图：Photograph by Matt Marcus\n《巴伦周刊》：在经历了2020年的辉煌之后，成长型股票正面临挑战。你对此担心吗？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：我们不关注股票价格的短期波动。我们专注于那些拥有长期发展机会的有趣公司。我们的平均持有期为5至10年。只有在这样的时间范围内，基本面才能推动股价。\n许多人试图专注于预测经济变量。但它们天生就是极难预测的，如果不是完全不可能的话。与此同时，在通信、计算、机器学习、能源生成和储存、基因测序和合成生物学等领域，有许多可以预测的趋势。我们关注可预测的趋势和它们创造的机会。\n《巴伦周刊》：在我们的百年圆桌会议上，你们观察到生物学领域的一些技术即使不比摩尔定律更好，至少也遵循类似的发展轨迹。投资者应该如何从中获利？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：基因测序成本曲线的下降幅度，远远大于摩尔定律下计算能力成本下降的幅度。现在，成本下降正在向相关领域扩展。基因测序正在产生大量的医疗数据，处理和存储这些数据的成本正在迅速下降，将机器学习应用于这些数据的成本也在迅速下降。\n一个辅助疗法是我们开始打印（复制）DNA 或 RNA 的能力。莫德纳公司（Moderna，MRNA）正在打印 RNA 序列。我们讨论的是编程生物学，只不过不是用1和0编码，而是用 Gs、 Ts、 As 和 Cs （鸟嘌呤、胸腺嘧啶、腺嘌呤和胞嘧啶ー排序的核酸碱基组成基因组）。\n莫德纳公司基于信使 RNA 生产安全有效疫苗的能力，应该会增强人们对该公司生产疫苗能力的信心，以满足其他巨大的、未被满足的需求，比如针对艾滋病毒/艾滋病。另一家合成生物公司银杏生物工程(Ginkgo Bioworks)将通过与 SPAC合并上市。它正在编写可用于生物制造过程的一串串 DNA 代码。\n《巴伦周刊》：莫德纳的成功不会吸引竞争对手吗？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：当一项技术经历了剧烈的变化，而不仅仅是现有范式的演变，既有的公司往往很难接受这种变化。更有可能的是，这项技术将会为新的业务和新的商业模式赋能。到目前为止，随着电动汽车或电动汽车的发展，汽车行业一直是这种情况。有趣的是，拥有大型疫苗特许经营权的制药公司还没有研制出有效的新冠病毒疫苗。\n《巴伦周刊》：说到电动汽车，Baillie Gifford已经将持有的特斯拉从7% 以上的峰值仓位削减到不到2%。这是为什么？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：我们仍然持有大量特斯拉的股份。部分原因在于，这次抛售反映出该公司股价的强劲走势，以及该公司在推动股价上涨方面的运营成功。另一部分原因，这次抛售只是在通盘考虑从这里往上看的各种可能性。\n《巴伦周刊》：在电动汽车和更广泛的领域，谁是下一个特斯拉？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：中国是世界上最大的汽车市场，如果没有中国国内的竞争者来挑战特斯拉，我会感到惊讶。我们是蔚来（ NIO）的投资者，而蔚来有机会成为这样的参与者。\n是什么样的特性让特斯拉如此有趣？每年销售的汽车超过1亿辆，这是一个巨大的市场。他们以一种独特的方式来处理这个问题，一位创始人兼首席执行官将自己的大部分财富与公司捆绑在一起。特斯拉顽强地追求一个长期愿景，不必过分担心股市的想法。在我们持股期间，特斯拉有10次股价下跌幅度超过30% 。\n莫德纳拥有应用程序足够广泛的平台型技术，因此也非常有趣。制造基因组测序仪器的因美纳公司（Illumina，ILMN）也有类似的机会。中国的公司，比如专注于本地服务的美团（3690），以及零售领域的拼多多（PDD），都很吸引人，部分原因在于它们的雄心壮志，它们正在逐渐改变本行业的整个供应链。\n在西方市场，配送预加工食品最初是作为外卖的替代品，而在中国，这一范围要大得多，因为这里有更多吃预加工食品的文化。在中国，公寓楼里的厨房设计得越来越小，同时这些公寓楼正在高效的食品配送服务基础设施而设计。当你在建设可靠的快速交付基础设施时，相关产业就应运而生。\n字节跳动也非常迷人。它的社交媒体子公司TikTok在美国引发了争议，但字节跳动95% 是关于中国的，这家公司在国内广告市场上的规模成长多么迅速。在中国，由创始人领导的大型企业正在充分利用国内市场的规模优势。\n《巴伦周刊》：你们更喜欢投资由创始人担任CEO领导的公司吗？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：我们希望投资那些为长期结果而优化的人领导的公司。这在创始人身上更为常见，但这并不是说你不能在职业CEO身上看到。\n自2016年以来，弗朗西斯·德·苏萨（Francis deSouza ）一直担任因美纳公司的首席执行官。该公司有一个庞大的收入基础，利润丰厚，并以可预见的方式增长。去年，基于它对未来5到10年市场走向的预测，因美纳公司出价80亿美元收购了 Grail 公司，这是一家癌症血液检测的预收入开发商。股市并不喜欢这种做法，但这正是创始人该做的事情。\n《巴伦周刊》：投资者应该关注哪些私有企业？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：像字节跳动和SpaceX这样的私有企业市值高达数百亿美元。SpaceX试图降低进入太空的成本达到几个数量级级别，并且它正在创造一个新的市场: 进入太空的商业途径。我们也是Relativity Space公司的投资者，该公司正在使用3D打印技术制造火箭。\n《巴伦周刊》：最近，你们减少了在亚马逊网站上的持股，为什么？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：我们作为亚马逊的股东已经有16年了。在去年之前，任何减持都是为了基金内部的多样化。但是亚马逊对我们来说仍然是一个巨大的市场，它仍然面临着一些重大机遇。杂货业务就是其中之一，它是一个正在缓慢线上化的庞大类别。\n另一方面，杰弗里 · 贝佐斯从 CEO 的位置上退下来是我们分析公司的一个重要因素，再加上最近经营消费品业务的杰夫 · 威尔克的退休(贝佐斯将于7月5日成为执行主席)。如果你认为贝佐斯的远见和动力对于亚马逊走到这一步很重要，那么哪怕是他部分的退出，也是更加谨慎的理由。\n《巴伦周刊》：还有什么其他的投资让你兴奋？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：Lemonade（LMND）最初是一家出售租房保险的公司，这家公司非常适合在线销售——尤其是手机销售。这家公司创造了很棒的消费体验。它允许客户指定一个慈善机构来接受他们保险池中的超额浮动，这就产生了不夸大索赔要求的激励。租房保险通常是人们会购买的第一种保险产品。如果体验很棒，他们会考虑购买同一品牌的宠物、汽车或者房主保险。Lemonade 正在一个大型厂商仍然在主流框架中运行的行业中建立一个现代技术堆栈。\n我们最近投资了10X 基因组公司（10X Genomics，TXG）和递归制药公司（Recursion Pharmaceuticals，RXRX）。共同的主题，再一次是应用信息技术的效率远远超过现有公司。\nAffirm Holdings（AFRM）也符合这一主题。传统上，销售点贷款对于消费者来说是一种糟糕的体验，利率很高，如果你不付款就会受到高额罚款。通过使用新技术，Affirm 创造了一个更加面向消费者的体验，推动了更多人使用该服务。这个模式的跑道很长。\n《巴伦周刊》：在什么情况下，缺少利润将成为投资的阻碍？\n汤姆 · 斯莱特：一家公司目前是否盈利与创造了多少价值几乎没有关系。以软件即服务（SAAS）公司为例，签下一个新客户在第一年可能要花很多钱，但这笔交易所产生的收入流可能会持续数十年。作为一个投资者，我希望公司签下尽可能多的客户，这意味着他们将在一开始损失很多钱。但是，如果他们能够留住这些客户，价值创造可能是海量的。\n《巴伦周刊》：谢谢你，汤姆。\n文｜《巴伦周刊》撰稿人劳伦·R·鲁布林（Lauren R. 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