FlowState Alpha – Global Market Outlook: US-Israel Strikes Iran, How to Position for Oil and HK Defense Stocks Next Week
Period Covered: Feb 23–28, 2026 Issued: Saturday, Feb 28, 2026 Focus: US | China/HK | Crypto | Commodities | Geopolitical Events 1) Macro & Geopolitical Summary United States Equities: S&P 500: 6,812 Nasdaq Composite: 16,432 Dow Jones: 34,910 Fixed Income: US 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.961% FX: USD DXY: 102.34 Macro drivers: Feb 26 PCE inflation 2.9% → marginal driver for 10Y yields decline and short-term equity repricing. Q4 GDP (2/20 Advance Estimate) already digested; included as background. Asia China / Hong Kong: Hang Seng: 26,381 (‑1.4%) Hang Seng Tech: 5,109 (‑2.9%) Shanghai Composite: 3,332 (‑0.4%) Japan: Nikkei 225: 31,110 (+0.3%) Capital flows: Anticipate Southbound outflow from HK tech → A-share defense / national tech replacement sectors in response to Pakistan–Afghanistan w