To The Moon

To paraphrase a famous quote; there are things that we know, known knowns, and there are things that we don't know, known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns, things that we don't know we don't know. The last category manifests as black swans, and gets expressed in our portfolios as huge 5+ sigma events.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  Still yet to price in 10% tariffs on the world and 145% tariffs on china

Traded (gambled) my way back from yesterday's loss. Still down from all time highs, but I'll get back there eventually.

After getting burned from trump's tweet, I've started trading with his truthsocial and x accounts open, just in case. But either way, the rally brought us back to where we were prior to the tariffs, which doesn't make sense, since we still have 10% tariffs on the whole world, plus whatever rate China is at. Today's pullback brings it to a more sensible level, but I'm still bearish.

$QQQ Custom 250411 404.0P/415.0P/465.0C/472.5C$ Not aiming for max profit, but a gap in either direction tomorrow morning.

$QQQ VERTICAL 250409 CALL 416.0/CALL 426.0$ Full disclosure. Blew up today when trump announced the suspension of tariffs. It's bad when you're delta negative and the market pops up 12%. He's got indices acting like meme stocks.

In theory,  yes, because Iphones are a luxury product where high prices enhances exclusivity. I don't think Apple would be able to manufacture iphones in the US, though, the lack of the appropriate supply chains have been brought up many times before. If they could though, I can imagine the advertising; The Iphone, handcrafted in America, for Americans. $5000.

Buy high sell higher. Sell low, buy back lower.

$QQQ Custom 250409 411.0P/416.0C/416.0P/426.0C$ Somewhat bearish position, with max loss occuring if market rallies overnight, but with max profit if it stays at $416.  Still potential for profit if the market slides down further, but I'd close the call spread and buy back the put tomorrow depending on the price action.

$QQQ 20250409 427.0 PUT$ Main profit from one of the legs of the strangle I bought.