To The Moon

2 hyper scalers CEOnamely Microsoft and Meta have just make statements hedging their CAPEX spendings.  Microsoft is already working with Marvel for cheaper solutions.  Broadcom also worked with Microsoft and remains magnificent in providing cheaper alternatives.  Everybody is thinking hard and quickly to avoid eggs on their faces by sticking with Nvidia after DeepSeek.  They all will be focused on how to get good outcome with less cost. There are many companies who have gone big on AI will now be able to do AI with open source to maximize their.  You don't need Nvidia to reach that outcome.  All these talks about security, distilling and whatever are inventions of those who are deep in Nvidia.  They have to live and die with it.

ASML is not assured.  It can be hit by a quiet launching of EUV machine or an alternate chips equally good as best of Nvidia.  If that happen, chips war is over and ASML can sell without restrictions at collapsing prices.

Seem like they have hit their tops.  If China were to announce the launching of EUV machine or an alternate chips that is equally good as Nvidia, that means end of chips war - free for all and China has promised to see chips like potatoes chips.  All American funds will face massive redemption and some many not survive, like 2008 financial crisis.  We cannot predict when but it will surprise us like DeepSeek.

DeepSeek is hitting all chips stocks today.  Investors are beginning to realize how far ahead is DeepSeek against ChatCGT.  There is heading downloading of the apps.

Will the Dog Collar when the fundamentals of Apple is negative ie long term trend is down. Warren Buffet has proven he is smart and lucky enough to realize it and probably dumped everything.  China is expected to have its own EUV machine anytime up to 3 years and also alternate type of advanced chips.  When it happen, the chips wars is over as everybody will be scrambling to sell anything China wants because that is last chance. At that point Apple PE should be reduced to 5 or 80% down and there goes Walls Street.  Just remember China developed DeepSeek at cost of $6 million whereas Silicon Valley spent billions and billions and is still behind in AI technology.

SMCI and Nvidia have been depressing lately.  They seem to have broken supports and heading to God knows where.  Hope bulls don't panic.

All the good surprises were out now and the rebound is overstretched.  Looks like it will consolidate lower to 31 before challenging the upside.  Healthy long term movement.

SMCI is collapsing now.  Probably heading back to lower 20.  

Agree with you for long term.  Short term look like going back to test the low.  Look at Dell just announced results which is negative.  SMCI is a competitor of Dell.

I saw Stanley Druckenmiller's interview and he made sweeping statement about China.  Take note China's economic achievement over the past 30/40 years are Chinese made, current situation are Chinese made and getting out of it to continue economic success will be Chinese make.  Recently an assessment by an independent western institution found that China lead in 57 out of the 64 critical technology in the world. Of course this and many other achievements are not reflected in the market, partly due to the US$1.6 billion spent by US in bad mouthing and creating false narrative about China.  Time will prove all these lies and America will be poorer for it.