To The Moon

Tesla is heading into Q4 delivery results with expectations already reset lower, and that matters more than the headline number. 📊 The Hard Numbers (What the Market Is Pricing In) Q4 2025 consensus deliveries (median): ~420,400 vehicles Mean estimate: ~422,850 vehicles This implies year-on-year delivery decline for the second consecutive year Tesla shares are already ~8–10% off recent highs, suggesting expectations are no longer euphoric In other words, this is not a blowout expectations quarter—but it may not need to be. 🧠 Why a Miss May Not Break the Stock Tesla is no longer traded purely as an auto company. Investors are increasingly focused on: Autonomy and robotaxi optionality AI compute and inference scale Optimus and long-cycle robotics monetization Margin stabilization vs deli

Baidu's recent rally is not just a short-term headline move. It reflects something deeper that the market has long underestimated. While Alibaba and Tencent dominate consumer ecosystems, Baidu has quietly built the most vertically integrated AI stack in China: chips, models, cloud infrastructure, and now real-world deployment through robotaxis. That matters. The AI Loop Advantage The real winners in AI will not be those with the flashiest models, but those who can close the AI loop: Data → Model → Deployment → Feedback → Better Data Baidu is one of the few Chinese players already doing this at scale. Apollo robotaxis generate real-world driving data. That data feeds Baidu’s models. Those models improve deployment efficiency — lowering unit economics over time. This mirrors Google's early s

2025 was not a year that rewarded bravado. It rewarded awareness. Markets moved between political shocks, AI acceleration, tariff fears, and liquidity pivots — often violently, often without warning. What stood out most was not how fast prices moved, but how quickly narratives broke when price stopped confirming them. My biggest progress this year did not come from finding better entries. It came from learning to exit earlier, size smaller, and pause more often. Some trades paid me. Others reminded me that hope is not a strategy. If I had to summarise my 2025 investment journey in one sentence, it would be this: “I stopped trying to predict outcomes and focused instead on managing risk when outcomes surprised me.” That mindset shift changed how I review charts, how I hold positions, and ho

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, markets feel restless. Volatility has picked up, rallies fade faster, and every headline seems to question whether the Santa Rally still exists. But stepping back, this does not feel like panic. It feels like transition. After a strong year driven by rate cuts, AI momentum, and returning liquidity, markets are no longer pricing upside blindly. Instead, they are digesting gains, resetting positions, and waiting for clarity. That is why December has been choppy rather than directional. Several forces are colliding at once: Thin year-end liquidity amplifying moves Heavy options positioning influencing daily price action Global macro uncertainty lingering, especially around policy shifts This creates an environment where price behaviour matters more t

This expiry feels less about direction and more about structure. With such a heavy concentration of ODTEs and strikes clustered around 6,800, the pinning effect has a real chance to dominate into the close — unless a macro surprise forces dealers to re-hedge aggressively. My base case is intraday volatility with a compressed close, not a clean Santa rally yet. Liquidity looks thin, sentiment fragile, and positioning crowded. For me, this is a session to trade levels, not narratives, and size down. December has been about survival and discipline, not hero trades.

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   This Christmas, I chose to travel, and interestingly, Korea ended up giving me some of the clearest trading lessons of the year. K-culture looks flashy on the surface: K-pop performances, perfectly choreographed stages, polished visuals. But once you are there, you realise the real story is discipline, repetition, and respect for process. No idol debuts overnight. Years of training happen quietly before the spotlight ever turns on. That felt painfully familiar as a trader. In markets, we celebrate the breakout days and the winning trades. But the real edge is built off-screen, journaling, reviewing losses, cutting positions early, and sitting through boredom when there is nothing to do. Korea reminded me that consisten

Tesla just printed a new all-time closing high, and the question traders are quietly asking is no longer Why is TSLA going up?  but What assumptions are now priced in? At these levels, Tesla is no longer trading as a car company. It is being valued as a platform bet on autonomy, robotics, and AI-driven operating leverage. That distinction matters. 📈 Why Tesla Keeps Pushing Higher This rally is not purely momentum-driven. Several structural narratives are reinforcing price: Autonomy optionality: Updates around robotaxis and Optimus are reviving long-dated growth assumptions Liquidity tailwinds: Risk appetite remains strong despite macro noise Positioning: Shorts and underweight funds continue to get squeezed on strength Price action tells the story clearly: dips are being bought quickl

Markets are entering the final stretch of the year with an unusual mix of seasonal optimism and macro anxiety. On the surface, U.S. equities look resilient. The S&P 500 has pulled back modestly, Bitcoin is volatile but holding key levels, and economic data still points to a relatively strong labour market. Yet beneath that calm sits a growing unease, will global liquidity tighten just as investors expect a Santa Rally? At the centre of this tension is Japan. 🇯🇵 Why the BOJ Suddenly Matters to U.S. Markets This week, the

Yesterday's action was messy on the surface, but very informative underneath. Tech weakness, crypto volatility, and rotation headlines made it feel chaotic, yet this is exactly the kind of tape where pick quality matters more than bravado. 🧠 Big Picture: What's Really Driving Markets? Rates & Macro: Bond yields remain the boss. Until yields decisively roll over, high-beta names will stay jumpy. Crypto: BTC weakness is pressuring proxies, but this still looks like distribution → reset, not a structural breakdown. Rotation: Capital is moving within risk assets, not fleeing the market entirely. This is not an all-in or all-out market. It is a range + reaction market. 📌 What I'm Watching (and How) 🟢 Watching / Tactical Exposure NVDA – Still the market's risk barometer. I prefer selling pre

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   As 2025 winds down, it feels like the right moment to step back and be honest about the trades that defined the year for me, not just the wins, but the ones that tested discipline, patience, and ego. This was a year where markets rewarded timing and punished complacency. AI mania, crypto euphoria, sudden macro shifts, and violent rotations made it impossible to coast. You either managed risk actively, or the market managed you. Here are my two most memorable trades of 2025, for very different reasons: The Best Trade: Selling MSTR Before the Drop My most memorable win this year was not a flashy multi-bagger. It was selling MSTR before it rolled over. MSTR had become one of the most crowded expressions of Bitcoin optimis