Florian_Grummes

independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 25 years of experience in financial markets.

    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·01-20

      Silver Chartbook — Resurgence confirms bullish outlook a for 2025

      While gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ posted a strong performance in 2024 and is most likely on its way back to its all-time high at USD 2,790 after a two-and-a-half-month consolidation, silver has been moving upward in gold’s slipstream. Despite reaching a high at USD 34.89 in October 2024, silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ never really showed a life on its own. Instead it was mainly following gold. At least, these price levels around USD 35 have not been seen since 2012. Finally, after a 17.6% pullback down to USD 28.73, silver has recovered nicely over the last four weeks.Silver supply and demand dynamicsFundamentally, a key factor driving the silver market is the persistent supply-demand imb
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      Silver Chartbook — Resurgence confirms bullish outlook a for 2025
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·01-16

      Gold Chartbook — Gathering strength for the breakout

      Since the last US interest rate decision on December 18th, 2024, gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ has experienced a remarkable recovery as anticipated. From its low point of USD 2,585, it climbed to a recent high of USD 2,697 within three weeks, representing an increase of approximately 4%. This recovery, however, has taken its toll as it had led gold to a significant resistance in the form of the upper triangle boundary. This downward trendline is currently situated around the USD 2,679ish level and has acted as short-term resistance triggering a pullback at the beginning of this new week. With the latest CPI numbers released today, gold was able to leave that technical barrier behind. Prices rallied back up towards USD 2,696 again. So far, ho
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      Gold Chartbook — Gathering strength for the breakout
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·01-08

      Bitcoin — Torn Between Bull Runs And Bear Plunges, Extreme Volatility Ahead

      As we enter 2025, Bitcoin finds itself at yet another critical juncture, navigating a complex landscape of unprecedented institutional interest, regulatory shifts, and market expectations. The cryptocurrency has already surpassed the USD 100,000 milestone, yet analysts unanimously predict a year of dramatic price swings. With price target projections ranging from USD 150,000 to USD 200,000, Bitcoin stands poised between exhilarating bull runs and potential sharp corrections, embodying the inherent volatility that has defined its remarkable journey. The current market dynamics suggest a perfect storm of factors — including spot ETF inflows, potential U.S. strategic reserve considerations, and nasty waves of profit taking in the stock market, that could propel Bitcoin to new heights while si
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      Bitcoin — Torn Between Bull Runs And Bear Plunges, Extreme Volatility Ahead
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-12-26

      Gold — Trend Reversal right after the last US interest rate decision of 2024

      As 2024 draws to a close, gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ & $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ have experienced a remarkable year characterized by record-breaking gold prices and significant volatility. Driven by a complex interplay of global economic factors, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policies, gold reached an all-time high of USD 2,790, outperforming many analyst’s predictions and cementing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Silver also posted a strong year but is still fighting to leave its 4-year trading range below USD 30 behind. Generally, the market’s trajectory was influenced by several key elements, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate d
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      Gold — Trend Reversal right after the last US interest rate decision of 2024
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-12-17

      Silver Chartbook — Bullish wedge limits remaining downside

      As the dust has settled after the US election, market dynamics are shifting focus towards monetary policy decisions and ongoing geopolitical tensions.An exceptionally successful year for precious metals is drawing to a close. The price of gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ has risen impressively by 30.9% in USD terms. Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ has recorded an increase of +31.75%. When calculated in euros, the annual balance looks even better, with the gold price currently showing a gain of 37%. Leading the way is the silver price in euros, with an increase of over 37.6%. This outstanding performance once again underscores the strength of these two precious metals, which have proven to be a
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      Silver Chartbook — Bullish wedge limits remaining downside
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-12-14

      Gold Chartbook — Pullback almost complete

      After reaching a new all-time high of USD 2,790 on October 30th, 2024, gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ prices experienced a sharp and rapid pullback, hitting a low of USD 2,535 on November 14th. This correction was driven by a combination of speculative profit-taking and broader market dynamics following the U.S. Presidential election. However, geopolitical tensions soon reignited demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a swift rebound to USD 2,720. From there, another sudden wave of selling pressure emerged, reflecting ongoing volatility in the gold-market.In the past two weeks, however, gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience, consistently attracting buyers on dips toward the USD 2,610 to USD 2,625 range. This “buy-on-dip” beha
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      Gold Chartbook — Pullback almost complete
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-11-19

      Gold Chartbook — Pullback into the last FOMC meeting in 2024

      Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices came under significant pressure following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Over all, gold plummeted more than 9% since its new all time-high at USD 2,790 on Wednesday, 30th of October, 2024. This substantial decline came as no surprise as we had anticipated a wave of profit-taking in the gold-market. This sharp downturn was primarily driven by a surge in bond yields, a rallying stock market, and a strengthening U.S. dollar, all of which made gold less attractive to investors.The market’s reaction to Trump’s win was largely influenced by expectations of his proposed policies, which many believe could reignite inflation. Concerns about potential tariffs and immigration
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      Gold Chartbook — Pullback into the last FOMC meeting in 2024
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-11-12

      Bitcoin — The Breakout Rally Has Begun

      ReviewIn our last analysis on September 22nd, we suggested that Bitcoin and the entire crypto sector might need a bit more time. Indeed, Bitcoin briefly slipped below the psychological mark of USD 60,000 on October 10th, only to shoot up significantly the next day. This final bear trap marked the definitive trend reversal, which had already begun with the crash low of USD 49,130 on August 5th.At the latest with Donald Trump’s election victory, it’s clear that the breakout rally for Bitcoin has begun. A new all-time high of USD 79,780 has already been recorded. The strong resistance zone between USD 72,000 and USD 76,000 has thus been breached. Above USD 80,000, the real fireworks should begin, rapidly propelling Bitcoin prices towards the psychological magnet of USD 100,000.Overall, the se
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      Bitcoin — The Breakout Rally Has Begun
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-11-09

      Silver Chartbook — Easing War Premium Leads to Healthy Pullback

      Since it’s last significant low and turning point at USD 26.40 on August 8th, 2024, silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ rallied by more than 32% to a new 12-year high at USD 34.86 on October 23rd. Over the last two weeks, however, the silver market came under severe pressure and has sold off to USD 30.84 as of Wednesday. This sharp decrease particularly gained momentum following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. We timely had anticipated a profit-taking event in the precious metal prices in our bi-weekly gold analysis as well as in our most recent weekly gold chartbook.The decline in silver prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Trump’s victory strengthened the U.S. dollar, which typically has an inverse
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      Silver Chartbook — Easing War Premium Leads to Healthy Pullback
    • Florian_GrummesFlorian_Grummes
      ·2024-11-08

      Gold Chartbook — Profit-Taking in the Gold Market?

      Since breaking above USD 2,530 in late August, gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices have only known one direction: upward. Following a meteoric rise, a new all-time high of USD 2,790 was reached last week on Wednesday. A significant consolidation or even a genuine correction have been notably absent so far. Amid increased volatility, there have only been two sharp but overall very modest pullbacks. Instead, gold bulls have been charging from one all-time high to the next.The broader rally in the gold market has been ongoing since autumn 2022, already. The triple bottom at USD 1,615 marked the trend reversal at that time. However, the uptrend has only gained significant momentum in the last 13 months. Starting at USD 1,810 on October 5th, 202
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      Gold Chartbook — Profit-Taking in the Gold Market?
       
       
       
       

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