To The Moon

🧐 Asset Class Valuation Indicators Spot the odd one out. 👀 High = expensiveLow = cheap And yes, valuation is closely tied to sentiment. In many ways, these indicators are also a popularity gauge. 😅 The interesting part is the gap between $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ and bonds. 🥇 Gold is sitting on the expensive side of the spectrum, reflecting strong demand and crowded positioning. 📉 Bonds, meanwhile, look much cheaper by comparison. That creates an unusually wide valuation contrast between the two asset classes. 🎯 From a purely contrarian perspective, the most extreme setup right now would be: Short Gold vs Long Bonds That doesn't automatically make it the right trade. It simply represents the most contrarian relative-value position based on t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ This is one of those rare charts that tells us two very different things at once. 👀 💻 Tech looks extremely expensive. 🛡️ Defensives look extremely cheap. That creates an interesting strategic setup. When one side of the market gets stretched this far while another gets heavily discounted, it’s worth looking beyond the crowded trade and watching where the valuation gap is opening up. But there’s another layer here. 📊 This is also a sentiment signal. I like to think of it as a “rubber band chart.” The further the market stretche

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ The chart below should be studied carefully by every student of the markets. Here's my 5 thoughts from this chart: 1. Investor Behavior: everyone wants to own stocks at the top (when valuations are high), few want to own them at the bottom (when valuations are low). 2. There -is- An Alternative: the 1970’s-1980’s period saw a structural decline in stockmarket valuations (and allocations to stocks) and

Pick of the Pack — Global Data Pulse This week’s pick of the pack (I had 50 charts to pick from!) sums up the data for as many countries as the data is available for multiple inputs within each category and gives a gauge of how the global economy is tracking. The key takeaways are that activity and confidence are steadily improving, inflation is surging (thanks in part to the energy spike in H1), and leading indicators are pointing to potential loss of momentum into 2027. You basically get to see the textbook economic cycle playing out in this chart, and as I’ll cover in this quarter’s webinar — there are some significant implications from this for investment strategy and asset allocation heading into H2.

We've become accustomed to markets just trending and going up over time, but there are plenty of examples across history and geographies of markets that just range. This 25-year period of time in Japan was one for market timers and not long-term trend followers. (...albeit there are clear trends on shorter frames within this period) If you missed the 10 Worst days in the market, your returns would be materially better than the index. So, should we therefore attempt to time the market? Most finfluencers only tell you about the red line, so what is the intellectually honest approach here?? Adjusted for market movements, margin debt is still expanding at a rapid pace. Yes this is a warning sign.

Another week, another new all-time high in long-term average expected earnings growth... Have Wall Street analysts lost the plot or are we really heading into a period of earnings hyperinflation? $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ p.s. this indicator has not had a good run when things get heated like this... basically a contrarian sentiment indicator! On the other side of the AI boom we will probably see the blue line go down and the black line go up... (few understand or expect this) Tech Sector capex is cro

Market Cap Weights -Mega Caps are bigger than usual -Large Caps are at a record low -SMID are smaller than usual We've seen huge shifts in cap weights across size cohorts --majorly distorted market, big moves like this rarely last long and are often the sign of a boom/bubble ready for bust. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Globalization of the US Stockmarket ...if you think about it, more and more offshore investors buying into US listed companies just as US listed companies are making more and more of their money from offshore. 🤔 Bond yields have been caught in a macro stalemate of resurgence risk vs r

Markets continue to price in stronger global growth, but history reminds investors that leadership stocks often endure steep drawdowns while recession risks can quickly shift the balance back toward bonds. Here are three key macro themes shaping the current investment landscape. 1.Biggest Winners’ Greatest Losses The most interesting aspect of this table is how massive the drawdowns (periods where the stock price declined from its peak) are for some of the best stocks… Not only do you have to pick the right stock, but you have to be able to hold-on and navigate through sometimes catastrophic declines in your portfolio through the process. 2.Global Equities are pricing a much higher PMI as global growth reaccelerates. Are boom times ahead? (or does the red line catch-down) 3.Recessions hurt

The bull market remains intact, driven by AI optimism, strong earnings expectations, and rapidly improving sentiment. However, with mega-cap valuations becoming increasingly stretched and investors once again pricing in perfection, the line between sustainable growth and speculative excess is beginning to blur. 1.US Stockmarket Valuations -Mega Caps= Very Expensive -Large Caps = Expensive -SMID Caps = Cheap 👀 🧐 🤔 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 2.Stocks are an Anticipatory Asset. Investors buy and sell bas

Lower effective tax rates have quietly become one of the biggest drivers of S&P 500 earnings growth, helping U.S. equities maintain a structural advantage over international markets. At the same time, earnings forecasts are surging, investor optimism is accelerating, and margin debt is once again approaching levels historically associated with major market peaks. 1.The effective tax rate of S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies has been a tailwind for earnings growth as it has consistently fallen over the years. It's also a competitive advantage that US stocks have over their global peers as EM + DM ex-US effective tax rates remain materially higher. 2.Long-Term earnings growth estimates have Exploded 💥 🚀 There's likely some truth in here,