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tigertail
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2022-10-06
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2022-10-06
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SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?
SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.Tha
SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?
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2022-10-06
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3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4
There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.
3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4
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tigertail
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2022-10-06
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Down 30% to 50%, These Stocks Are Essential Bear Market Buys
These market leaders are dirt cheap right now.
Down 30% to 50%, These Stocks Are Essential Bear Market Buys
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2022-10-06
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tigertail
tigertail
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2022-07-29
Sounds reasonable.
Apple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY
SummaryApple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating re
Apple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY
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2022-07-17
Crap 💩
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2022-07-11
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Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds
(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole l
Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds
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2022-07-03
Noted with thanks
Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed on July 4 for Independence Day
US Independence Day are around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 4 July 2022. Pl
Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed on July 4 for Independence Day
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2022-06-28
Stay strong SG
Singapore Stocks Eke Out Slight Gains Amid Recession, Inflation Worries; STI up 0.1%
SINGAPORE shares ran out of steam and traded underwater through most of Tuesday (Jun 28), although a
Singapore Stocks Eke Out Slight Gains Amid Recession, Inflation Worries; STI up 0.1%
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16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191721961","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.Tha","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Investors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.</li><li>That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.</li><li>Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e6de7f0fab0e6bb37cdb11d688fb5d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>DNY59</span></p><h2>Thesis</h2><p>Whether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.</p><h2>What Is A Recession?</h2><p>The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.</p><p>However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.</p><p>Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it's worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e244cd5d88e7efe563b9a11bbbd69704\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>The shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it's safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.</p><p>That doesn't mean a recession won't come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it's safe to say that we're probably entering a recession.</p><p>If that does happen, what's the outlook on the S&P 500? Let's take a look.</p><h2>Historical Recessions</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>As shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there's quite a range of outcomes here, but it's clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.</p><p>This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That's a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.</p><p>Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there's potentially more room to fall.</p><p>I won't hazard a guess as to who's right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?</p><p>You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market's returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Recession</b></td><td><b>SPY Return</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nov-48:Oct-49</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-53:May-54</td><td>25%</td></tr><tr><td>Aug-57:Apr-58</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Apr-60:Feb-61</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-69:Nov-70</td><td>3%</td></tr><tr><td>Nov-73:Mar-75</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td>Jan-80:Jul-80</td><td>0%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-81:Nov-82</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Jul-90:Mar-91</td><td>13%</td></tr><tr><td>Mar-01:Nov-01</td><td>-9%</td></tr><tr><td>Dec-07:Jun-09</td><td>-39%</td></tr><tr><td>Feb-20:Mar-20</td><td>-24%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Average</b></td><td><b>-2%</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Median</b></td><td><b>2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: The Author</p><p>The key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it's actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it's safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn't bet on great returns during a recession, but they're also not out of the question.</p><h2>Best Course For Investors</h2><p>At Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don't attempt to time the market based on whether we're in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that's my preferred strategy. In this section, I'll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e196047db513bc62f32b6e7fe7e2b966\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Yahoo Finance</span></p><p>This is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn't discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you'll ever find with SPY, and it's again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they'll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48970cb98595a3c00b76cfcea64bead8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Current Market Valuation</span></p><p>The next data point is the S&P 500's historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don't see any earnings growth for the next year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe698a5c07dfcf88b263624c52a6404\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Morningstar Equity Research</span></p><p>Another data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar's DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.</p><p>Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.</p><p>At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar's.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Stock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.</p><p>I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you're of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.</p><p>However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: How Would A Recession Impact The S&P 500 Outlook?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544708-spy-how-recession-impact-s-p-500-outlook","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191721961","content_text":"SummaryInvestors may be surprised by what past recessions can tell us about stock market returns.That is, if we can agree on the definition of a recession.Macro issues aside, I believe that now is a good time to be buying stocks.DNY59ThesisWhether there is a recession or not, stocks look reasonably valued today and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) should continue to perform well in the long term.What Is A Recession?The official definition of a recession has been thetopic of much debate lately. Many refer to a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, a requirement which was already met in Q1 and Q2 of 2022.However, others argue that in addition to (or instead of) negative GDP growth, a recession must be characterized by a sustained period of economic decline, with a broad impact reaching areas like trade, manufacturing, and labor. For example, most people consider the period from February-March 2020 a recession, even though it was less than two quarters.Recessions are temporary, and thus the semantics of a recession are not all that important to long-term investors. But it's worth noting that there has been a clear correlation between recessions and the labor market, which has not held today.FREDThe shaded areas in the above chart are past recessions, and we can see that each shaded area is accompanied by a steep rise in unemployment. The inverse also holds: each steep rise in unemployment is accompanied by a recession. Since the current labor market has remained strong, at least through August, it's safe to say that at least one element of a traditional recession is missing.That doesn't mean a recession won't come in short order, as the Fed continues to hike rates and many companies recently lowered or suspended guidance citing macro issues. If we begin seeing massive layoffs, then it's safe to say that we're probably entering a recession.If that does happen, what's the outlook on the S&P 500? Let's take a look.Historical RecessionsYahoo FinanceAs shown in the above chart from Yahoo Finance, the median peak-to-trough decline of the S&P 500 during a recession is -24%, and because there were a few particularly bad recessions the mean is higher at a -29% decline. The full range of declines goes from -14% to -57%, so there's quite a range of outcomes here, but it's clear that investors should expect negative stock market returns surrounding a recession.This year, SPY peaked at $479.98 and fell to $357.04. That's a 25.6% decline, meaning that at least by this metric, investors have already priced in a historically average recession.Considering that the labor market and other signals remain strong, some argue that investors have been too quick to sell stocks and that a rebound is likely on the way. On the other hand, others argue that the current crash started from a record high P/E ratio and that the macro picture looks worse than it has in years, meaning that there's potentially more room to fall.I won't hazard a guess as to who's right because macro issues are very difficult to predict. However, even for those who are (foolishly) very confident that they know exactly what will happen with the economy, the more important question is what impact will that have on the stock market?You may think that the chart I shared above answers that question. However, it shows a peak-to-trough decline, which is distinct from the stock market returns during an actual recession because the peak-to-trough decline may start before and/or end after the recession. Here are the market's returns during the actual months of the recessions in the above chart:RecessionSPY ReturnNov-48:Oct-4911%Jul-53:May-5425%Aug-57:Apr-58-5%Apr-60:Feb-6118%Dec-69:Nov-703%Nov-73:Mar-75-24%Jan-80:Jul-800%Jul-81:Nov-826%Jul-90:Mar-9113%Mar-01:Nov-01-9%Dec-07:Jun-09-39%Feb-20:Mar-20-24%Average-2%Median2%Source: The AuthorThe key point here is that markets typically price in a recession before it actually happens and begin to price it out before it's actually over. With a range of during-recession returns from -39% to +25%, it's safe to say that whether or not we are currently in a recession has historically had little to no predictable impact on SPY returns. You probably shouldn't bet on great returns during a recession, but they're also not out of the question.Best Course For InvestorsAt Tech Investing Edge, we invest with a 10+ year time horizon and don't attempt to time the market based on whether we're in a recession or other factors. Hopefully, the previous sections have made it clear why that's my preferred strategy. In this section, I'll share a few charts about why I think that now is a good time to increase exposure to stocks, through SPY or individual stock picks.Yahoo FinanceThis is the same chart I shared in the previous section. A key point that I didn't discuss yet is the performance 1 year after the market bottoms, and 2 years after the market bottoms. Investors buying at the market bottom will on average see 40% returns after one year and 54% returns after two years. Those are some of the best returns you'll ever find with SPY, and it's again worth noting that the start of those returns will likely happen before the recession is over, if we even get a recession in the first place. Even if investors lump sum into the market now and it continues to sell off with Covid crash extremes (-34%), they'll on average still be looking at nicely positive returns within the next couple years.Current Market ValuationThe next data point is the S&P 500's historical P/E ratio. Today, SPY has a P/E of 18 and a forward P/E ratio of 16. The modern era market average is a P/E of 20, while the average going back to 1870 is 16. Either way, the current P/E ratio is within one standard deviation of the average, meaning that stocks are within a range that would be considered fairly valued based on historical standards. That holds true even if analyst estimates for earnings growth are wrong and we don't see any earnings growth for the next year.Morningstar Equity ResearchAnother data point shows the price vs. fair value estimate based on Morningstar's DCF valuation for the many stocks in their coverage universe. Morningstar is a respected analyst firm. We can see that stocks are currently very undervalued according to their valuation model, in fact more undervalued than they were during the Covid crash or 2018 panic. Investors would have to go back to the 2011 Greece debt crisis in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to find another time when Morningstar thought stocks were as undervalued as they are today. As we all know, stocks have been on an incredible bull run since 2011.Key assumptions that Morningstar makes include the Fed tightening cycle ending this year and inflation subsiding in 2023. These are somewhat bold assumptions at this point, but there is also the best margin of safety in over a decade if the assumptions prove incorrect.At my Marketplace service on Seeking Alpha, Tech Investing Edge, I cover a smaller universe of about 30 stocks that I think represent some of the best long-term investing opportunities. My price targets today estimate an average upside of 73%, which is the highest level since I started the service earlier this year. Thus, my own valuation model for the companies I cover aligns well with Morningstar's.ConclusionStock market bears have had a great time this year, and many will try to tell you with certainty that SPY will continue going lower until the P/E falls to 15, until inflation subsides, until the war in Ukraine is over, until the recession is over, until the Fed pivots, or until a variety of other conditions are met.I hope that this article provided multiple data points to show that nobody knows for sure what markets will do in the near future, even if you're of the belief that a recession is inevitable or already happening. Investors should still prepare themselves for more volatility and potentially more negative returns as the market searches for a bottom and digests the currently poor economic environment.However, risk-tolerant investors should consider increasing their exposure to stocks through SPY or individual stock picks, as the market has bounced back after each past recession and will likely bounce back after this one as well. Often, that bounce comes sooner than many market participants expect.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915812581,"gmtCreate":1665011936943,"gmtModify":1676537542307,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915812581","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","CVX":"雪佛龙","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OXY":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CVX":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915812854,"gmtCreate":1665011919679,"gmtModify":1676537542291,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915812854","repostId":"2273819339","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273819339","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665044654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273819339?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 30% to 50%, These Stocks Are Essential Bear Market Buys","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273819339","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These market leaders are dirt cheap right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>The bear market is a dark cloud. But it does have a silver lining. And that's the fact that it's giving us the opportunity to buy fabulous companies at bargain prices. These are companies that have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/down-30-50-percent-here-are-bear-market-buys/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 30% to 50%, These Stocks Are Essential Bear Market Buys</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 30% to 50%, These Stocks Are Essential Bear Market Buys\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/down-30-50-percent-here-are-bear-market-buys/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The bear market is a dark cloud. But it does have a silver lining. And that's the fact that it's giving us the opportunity to buy fabulous companies at bargain prices. These are companies that have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/down-30-50-percent-here-are-bear-market-buys/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HD":"家得宝","AMZN":"亚马逊","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/05/down-30-50-percent-here-are-bear-market-buys/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273819339","content_text":"The bear market is a dark cloud. But it does have a silver lining. And that's the fact that it's giving us the opportunity to buy fabulous companies at bargain prices. These are companies that have demonstrated earnings strength in the past -- and have promising long-term prospects.The thing about a bear market is it doesn't just hurt struggling companies. It also weighs on the performance of solid companies that could boost your portfolio over the long haul. The stocks I'll mention here have lost 30% to 50% this year. But they have what it takes to rebound -- and thrive over time. Let's check out these three essential bear market buys.1. Home DepotHome Depot has slipped 31% this year -- even as the company's earnings hit a major milestone. In the second quarter, Home Depot reported its highest quarterly sales and profit ever. And these figures reach into the billions of dollars. The world's biggest home improvement retailer reported sales of more than $43 billion and net earnings of $5.2 billion.That's quite an accomplishment considering the pressures of higher inflation and supply chain issues. Home Depot has managed today's supply chain problems by investing in higher in-stock levels and its own new supply chain facilities, for example.The company also hasn't changed its policy of rewarding investors. In the quarter, it paid out about $2 billion in dividends and $1.5 billion in the form of share repurchases. So, an investment in Home Depot won't only bring you the possibility of share gains -- it also offers you a passive income source.Home Depot shares are suffering now as investors avoid companies linked to the idea of economic growth. The concern is building projects will slow if economic woes persist.But here are two reasons to be optimistic. First, Home Depot's professional customers say their project backlogs remain strong. And second, even if projects do slow, that slowdown will be temporary. As we know, times of economic trouble don't last forever.Today, Home Depot trades for 17 times forward earnings estimates. That's down from about 28 earlier this year. At the same time, revenue continues to rise. This looks like a bargain for a great long-term stock.2. EtsyEtsy shares have tumbled more than 50% this year. Etsy, an online platform that brings together sellers and buyers of handmade goods, soared during the early stages of the pandemic. That's as consumers stayed home and focused on shopping online.Today, investors worry that Etsy's best days are in the past. But there's evidence Etsy is just getting started. Of course, the pandemic boosted Etsy's business. It grew from 46 million active buyers before the pandemic to 90 million by the end of last year.Sure, growth has slowed. But Etsy has managed to keep 88 million of those active buyers. And those buyers are spending as much on Etsy as they did before or slightly more.Etsy's recent acquisitions of Depop and Elo7 added to employee compensation expenses -- and that weighed on net income in the second quarter. It slipped about 25% to $73 million. But Etsy's overall revenue rose more than 10%. And the acquisitions offer important growth drivers for Etsy down the road. Depop is an online fashion resale marketplace, and Elo7 is a Brazilian online seller of handmade goods.It's also important to note that Etsy still has a lot of room for growth. If you're like me and shop on Etsy, you may have the impression that everyone knows about this platform. But, in the U.S. and the U.K., 70% of women and 90% of men actually haven't yet shopped on Etsy over the past 12 months.So, Etsy's revenue is growing and the company is profitable -- and it still has great opportunity to win over more customers. At the same time, the stock is trading at 28 times forward earnings estimates. That's down from about 50 at the start of the year. Considering Etsy's ability to keep shoppers coming back and the room for growth, the stock looks like a steal right now.3. AmazonThe current economic climate hasn't been easy for Amazon. The company has struggled with higher transport costs, supply chain challenges, and excess fulfillment capacity. As a result, Amazon's usually stellar earnings reports soured.For the past few quarters, Amazon has reported declines in operating cash flow and operating income, for example. So why do I favor buying Amazon right now? Because today's troubles are temporary and don't change the overall strength of the business.Amazon is a leader in two growing businesses: e-commerce and cloud computing. E-commerce is hurting right now. But the overall outlook for e-commerce is positive. Global retail e-commerce is expected to climb by 56% to reach $8.1 trillion in 2026, according to Statista.As for cloud computing, Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to grow operating income and revenue in the double-digits. And AWS generally makes up most of Amazon's total operating income. So, it's a key profit driver for the company.Amazon also is showing signs of progress in the management of today's difficult times. The company said during the second-quarter earnings report that it was controlling costs and improving productivity across its fulfillment network.Today, Amazon trades at about 2.4 times sales. This is around its lowest level in at least five years. At the same time, revenue continues to climb. So, this bear market price is a very reasonable one for a company that has what it takes to rebound and flourish down the road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"ETSY":0.9,"HD":0.87}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915816414,"gmtCreate":1665011904438,"gmtModify":1676537542275,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915816414","repostId":"2273289978","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9901094531,"gmtCreate":1659091597123,"gmtModify":1676536256477,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds reasonable. ","listText":"Sounds reasonable. ","text":"Sounds reasonable.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9901094531","repostId":"1127120005","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127120005","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659108221,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127120005?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-29 23:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127120005","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating re","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Apple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating returns.</li><li>Apple is innovating, but, in my opinion, new offerings will likely pale in comparison to the iPhone and fail to move the needle to satisfy growth investors.</li><li>In Peter Lynch's terms, Apple has fully transitioned from Fast Grower to Stalwart.</li><li>Investors can de-risk their portfolios by buying the SPY, which has a good chance of matching or beating Apple's future returns.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>There's no denying the incredible success of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as a company and as an investment. Indeed, Apple even enticed investing legend Warren Buffett, who typically stays away from technology stocks, to take up a billion-dollar position back in 2016. But, as many of us know, the larger a snowball gets the harder it is to roll, to the point where it's so large it can't be rolled at all. With a nearly $2.5 trillion market cap, Apple is an enormous snowball. To put it in perspective, Apple is the size of 25 PayPal's (PYPL). It takes an enormous amount of money to move Apple, whether that be revenue, earnings, or investors.</p><p>Apple has an impressive track record of innovation with products such as the Apple Watch, Air Pods, Apple TV, and Apple Pay. But how many more home runs could be left in this behemoth? Just as important a question, how far outside the park must Apple hit these home runs to have a meaningful impact on revenue and earnings?</p><p>I'm not betting against Apple's ability to innovate. I'm betting against their ability to replicate past success in a manner that'll grow EPS well above the S&P 500. In my opinion, Apple is a snowball that's just too hard to move. Because of this, I think investors are better off buying theSPY.</p><p><b>Where is Future Growth Coming From?</b></p><p>I think most of us will agree Apple has pretty well saturated the smartphone market in the US. As of 2021,datashows Apple had 46.9% of the US smartphone market with share gains growing at a very slow pace. I see no reason to believe iPhone share gains will be any better than the recent past.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5a8230f021553bdab552ae6cb8ce70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>iPhone Market Share (statista.com)</p><p>Apple's second-largest market is Europe where they hold a 32.3% share. Apple holds a microscopic edge over Samsung as a market leader. Share gains in Europe have also moderated in recent years similar to the US.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0becc8c9b730dc6c023bcefce1e0646\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Apple Market Share - Europe (Statcounter.com)</p><p>Perhaps China can save the day? Apple recently reclaimed the number one spot as a smartphone provider in China. Apple overtook competitor Huawei after Huawei was negatively impacted by US sanctions. So, one could argue Apple's 23% leading market position is somewhat artificial.</p><p>Either way, with saturated markets in the US and Europe and a fiercely competitive environment in China, I don't see market-beating returns coming as a result of increasing iPhone sales which are the backbone of the company.</p><p>So, where will Apple turn to produce the +15% per year (or approximately $15 billion in year one) earnings growth investors are accustomed to?</p><p><b>Share Repurchases</b></p><p>Over the past 10 years, Apple has spent an astonishing$467 billion on share repurchases, reducing a total number of shares outstanding by 4.4% annually. Share repurchases have been a foundation of Apple's annual EPS growth and I fully expect this to continue in the future. While I'm a fan of share repurchases, I don't prefer when they're the primary form of EPS growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/664dc00f07bea24b2eb1aa207937ae30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Shares Outstanding (Quickfs.com)</p><p>To put it in perspective, share repurchases accounted for the following percentage (approximate) of annual EPS growth for Apple:</p><ul><li>2017: 47% of YOY EPS growth</li><li>2018: 21% of YOY EPS growth</li><li>2019: Not measurable because EPS growth was negative</li><li>2020: 62% of YOY EPS growth</li><li>2021: 9% of YOY EPS growth</li></ul><p>Prior to 2021, share repurchases often accounted for a significant portion of EPS growth. I view 2021 as an outlier due to the amount of fiscal stimulus injected into the economy, which drove up revenue for many companies, including Apple.</p><p><b>Products & Services</b></p><p>Apple has numerous products and services of which I am a satisfied customer. These include the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Air Pods, AppStore, Apple Pay, and Apple Music. I greatly enjoy each of these and believe they offer excellent value.</p><p>Apple's fastest growing categories are Wearables, Home & Accessories and Services. Over the past 5 years, Wearables, Home & Accessories has grown revenue at a 31.5% CAGR while Services clocks in at 20.3%.</p><p>Here's what's included in each per Apple's 2021 10-K filing.</p><blockquote>Wearables, Home and Accessories net sales include sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, iPod touch and accessories.</blockquote><blockquote>Services net sales include sales from the Company's advertising, AppleCare, cloud, digital content, payment and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of services bundled in the sales price of certain products.</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b67155a2ae8b688f5fddfede0b0344b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Revenue by Category (Author's personal data)</p><p>As seen in the table above, iPhone, Mac, and iPad sales have been fairly lumpy whereas Wearables, Home & Accessories and Services has been steadily increasing.</p><p>Using this information, I can make an educated guess on future revenue growth for Apple. In the table below, I de-rated the revenue CAGR for each category to reflect a more modest expectation of growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e23bc5acddfa2604ba624d20446f19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Forecast Revenue by Category (Author's personal data)</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Using the market multiple approaches, I arrive at a 2026 target price of $197 for Apple, which includes share repurchases but excludes dividends. I assumed revenue growth of 10.3% (table above), net margins of 23.2% (5YR avg), a long-term PE of 20, and reducing shares outstanding by 4.5% annually.</p><ul><li>2026 revenue estimate = $593 billion</li><li>Net income = $593 billion x 23.2% = $137.6 billion</li><li>Shares outstanding reducing from 16.9 billion in 2022 to 14.0 billion in 2026</li><li>2026 EPS estimate = $137.6 billion / 14.0 billion = $9.83</li><li>Fair value = 20 (PE) x $9.83 = $196.60</li></ul><p>With today's price of $154 per share, a target price of $196.60 would constitute a 5-year CAGR of 5%. Not exactly a market-beating return in my opinion.</p><p>From a DCF perspective, I show an intrinsic value of $156, which doesn't offer an acceptable margin of safety. I used an 8% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth rate. I assumed Apple will continue reducing a total number of shares outstanding by 2.5% annually and grow FCF by 7.4% annually (below the 10 YR CAGR of 10.8%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89bb0473ac235d24fd63d6a47a1f565f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DCF Valuation (Author's personal data)</p><p><b>Aren't There Risks To The SPY?</b></p><p>Of course, stocks and ETFs aren't called risk-assets for nothing. In the current macro environment of rising interest rates, sky-high inflation, and a looming recession, investing anywhere is risky. To quote Mr. Buffett:</p><blockquote>Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.</blockquote><p>History says 10 or 20 years from now, the market will be higher than what it is today, so it's important to keep a long-term perspective. In the current environment,dollar-cost averaging may be the best approach. And if you find yourself stressed about unrealized losses in 2022, that's probably a good sign you're invested too heavily, either in general or in an individual position. How well you sleep at night is often a good gauge of portfolio health.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Apple is a phenomenal company with a bright future, but I find it hard to believe it'll offer market-beating returns in the coming years. At its current share price, Apple appears to be fairly valued and doesn't offer an acceptable margin of safety. Investors looking to 5x their money in the next 5 to 10 years likely won't be able to do so owning Apple. It's simply too large a snowball. Because of this, I think investors are better served buying the SPY where they'll get indirect exposure to Apple, de-risk their portfolio, and have a decent chance of outperforming Apple in the long term.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: I'd Rather Buy The SPY\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-29 23:23 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4527039-apple-rather-buy-spy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating returns.Apple is innovating, but, in my opinion, new offerings will likely pale in comparison to the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4527039-apple-rather-buy-spy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4527039-apple-rather-buy-spy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127120005","content_text":"SummaryApple is a phenomenal company, but their enormous size will be a barrier to market-beating returns.Apple is innovating, but, in my opinion, new offerings will likely pale in comparison to the iPhone and fail to move the needle to satisfy growth investors.In Peter Lynch's terms, Apple has fully transitioned from Fast Grower to Stalwart.Investors can de-risk their portfolios by buying the SPY, which has a good chance of matching or beating Apple's future returns.Investment ThesisThere's no denying the incredible success of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as a company and as an investment. Indeed, Apple even enticed investing legend Warren Buffett, who typically stays away from technology stocks, to take up a billion-dollar position back in 2016. But, as many of us know, the larger a snowball gets the harder it is to roll, to the point where it's so large it can't be rolled at all. With a nearly $2.5 trillion market cap, Apple is an enormous snowball. To put it in perspective, Apple is the size of 25 PayPal's (PYPL). It takes an enormous amount of money to move Apple, whether that be revenue, earnings, or investors.Apple has an impressive track record of innovation with products such as the Apple Watch, Air Pods, Apple TV, and Apple Pay. But how many more home runs could be left in this behemoth? Just as important a question, how far outside the park must Apple hit these home runs to have a meaningful impact on revenue and earnings?I'm not betting against Apple's ability to innovate. I'm betting against their ability to replicate past success in a manner that'll grow EPS well above the S&P 500. In my opinion, Apple is a snowball that's just too hard to move. Because of this, I think investors are better off buying theSPY.Where is Future Growth Coming From?I think most of us will agree Apple has pretty well saturated the smartphone market in the US. As of 2021,datashows Apple had 46.9% of the US smartphone market with share gains growing at a very slow pace. I see no reason to believe iPhone share gains will be any better than the recent past.iPhone Market Share (statista.com)Apple's second-largest market is Europe where they hold a 32.3% share. Apple holds a microscopic edge over Samsung as a market leader. Share gains in Europe have also moderated in recent years similar to the US.Apple Market Share - Europe (Statcounter.com)Perhaps China can save the day? Apple recently reclaimed the number one spot as a smartphone provider in China. Apple overtook competitor Huawei after Huawei was negatively impacted by US sanctions. So, one could argue Apple's 23% leading market position is somewhat artificial.Either way, with saturated markets in the US and Europe and a fiercely competitive environment in China, I don't see market-beating returns coming as a result of increasing iPhone sales which are the backbone of the company.So, where will Apple turn to produce the +15% per year (or approximately $15 billion in year one) earnings growth investors are accustomed to?Share RepurchasesOver the past 10 years, Apple has spent an astonishing$467 billion on share repurchases, reducing a total number of shares outstanding by 4.4% annually. Share repurchases have been a foundation of Apple's annual EPS growth and I fully expect this to continue in the future. While I'm a fan of share repurchases, I don't prefer when they're the primary form of EPS growth.Shares Outstanding (Quickfs.com)To put it in perspective, share repurchases accounted for the following percentage (approximate) of annual EPS growth for Apple:2017: 47% of YOY EPS growth2018: 21% of YOY EPS growth2019: Not measurable because EPS growth was negative2020: 62% of YOY EPS growth2021: 9% of YOY EPS growthPrior to 2021, share repurchases often accounted for a significant portion of EPS growth. I view 2021 as an outlier due to the amount of fiscal stimulus injected into the economy, which drove up revenue for many companies, including Apple.Products & ServicesApple has numerous products and services of which I am a satisfied customer. These include the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Air Pods, AppStore, Apple Pay, and Apple Music. I greatly enjoy each of these and believe they offer excellent value.Apple's fastest growing categories are Wearables, Home & Accessories and Services. Over the past 5 years, Wearables, Home & Accessories has grown revenue at a 31.5% CAGR while Services clocks in at 20.3%.Here's what's included in each per Apple's 2021 10-K filing.Wearables, Home and Accessories net sales include sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, iPod touch and accessories.Services net sales include sales from the Company's advertising, AppleCare, cloud, digital content, payment and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of services bundled in the sales price of certain products.Revenue by Category (Author's personal data)As seen in the table above, iPhone, Mac, and iPad sales have been fairly lumpy whereas Wearables, Home & Accessories and Services has been steadily increasing.Using this information, I can make an educated guess on future revenue growth for Apple. In the table below, I de-rated the revenue CAGR for each category to reflect a more modest expectation of growth.Forecast Revenue by Category (Author's personal data)ValuationUsing the market multiple approaches, I arrive at a 2026 target price of $197 for Apple, which includes share repurchases but excludes dividends. I assumed revenue growth of 10.3% (table above), net margins of 23.2% (5YR avg), a long-term PE of 20, and reducing shares outstanding by 4.5% annually.2026 revenue estimate = $593 billionNet income = $593 billion x 23.2% = $137.6 billionShares outstanding reducing from 16.9 billion in 2022 to 14.0 billion in 20262026 EPS estimate = $137.6 billion / 14.0 billion = $9.83Fair value = 20 (PE) x $9.83 = $196.60With today's price of $154 per share, a target price of $196.60 would constitute a 5-year CAGR of 5%. Not exactly a market-beating return in my opinion.From a DCF perspective, I show an intrinsic value of $156, which doesn't offer an acceptable margin of safety. I used an 8% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth rate. I assumed Apple will continue reducing a total number of shares outstanding by 2.5% annually and grow FCF by 7.4% annually (below the 10 YR CAGR of 10.8%).DCF Valuation (Author's personal data)Aren't There Risks To The SPY?Of course, stocks and ETFs aren't called risk-assets for nothing. In the current macro environment of rising interest rates, sky-high inflation, and a looming recession, investing anywhere is risky. To quote Mr. Buffett:Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.History says 10 or 20 years from now, the market will be higher than what it is today, so it's important to keep a long-term perspective. In the current environment,dollar-cost averaging may be the best approach. And if you find yourself stressed about unrealized losses in 2022, that's probably a good sign you're invested too heavily, either in general or in an individual position. How well you sleep at night is often a good gauge of portfolio health.ConclusionApple is a phenomenal company with a bright future, but I find it hard to believe it'll offer market-beating returns in the coming years. At its current share price, Apple appears to be fairly valued and doesn't offer an acceptable margin of safety. Investors looking to 5x their money in the next 5 to 10 years likely won't be able to do so owning Apple. It's simply too large a snowball. Because of this, I think investors are better served buying the SPY where they'll get indirect exposure to Apple, de-risk their portfolio, and have a decent chance of outperforming Apple in the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072230673,"gmtCreate":1658035095192,"gmtModify":1676536096923,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crap 💩","listText":"Crap 💩","text":"Crap 💩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072230673","repostId":"2251464222","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071150658,"gmtCreate":1657503187074,"gmtModify":1676536014945,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071150658","repostId":"1100813454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100813454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657520064,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100813454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 14:14","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100813454","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole l","content":"<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-11 14:14 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100813454","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. It was around $21,850 late Friday afternoon, ending the week up over 12%.Big DropInvestors think Bitcoin is heading lowerSource: MLIV Pulse Survey running July 5th to 8th. Respondents were asked: \"Which level will Bitcoin trade at first? $10k or $30k\"The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets.Some $2 trillion has vanished from the market value of cryptocurrencies since late last year, according to data compiled by CoinGecko.Retail investors were more apprehensive about cryptocurrencies than their institutional counterparts, with almost a quarter declaring the asset class to be garbage. Professional investors were more open-minded toward digital assets.But overall, this sector remains a polarizing one: while some 28% of the overall respondents expressed strong confidence that cryptocurrencies are the future of finance, 20% said they’re worthless.Crypto AnxiousMost respondents were at least slightly skeptical about cryptocurrenciesSource: MLIV Pulse Survey running July 5th to 8th. Respondents were asked: \"In relation to cryptocurrencies, which of the below best describes your attitude\"Bitcoin has already lost more than two-thirds of its value since hitting nearly $69,000 in November and hasn’t traded as low as $10,000 since September 2020.“It’s very easy to be fearful right now, not only in crypto, but generally in the world,” said Jared Madfes, partner at Tribe Capital, a venture capital firm. He said the expectations for a further drop in Bitcoin reflect “people’s inherent fear in the market.”The crypto crash is likely to put further pressures on governments to step up regulations of the industry. Such supervision is seen as positive by majority of respondents, since it could improve confidence and lead to broader acceptance among institutional and retail investors.Government intervention will also probably be welcomed by consumers burned by the collapse of so-called stablecoin TerraUSD and troubled middlemen like Celsius Network and broker Voyager Digital Ltd.Central banks are also considering developing their own digital currencies for use in digital payments.But neither the recent price drops -- nor the potential challenge from central banks -- are expected to significantly upend the industry by dethroning the two dominant tokens, Bitcoin and Ether. A majority of respondents anticipate that one of those two will remain a driving force in five years even while a significant share sees central bank digital currencies taking on a key role.“Bitcoin still is powering large parts of the cryptoverse, while Ethereum is losing its lead,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., a foreign-exchange broker.There was a broader consensus about one corner of the market: Nonfungible tokens. NFTs became famous for attraction valuations in the millions of dollars for pictures of monkeys during the height of the crypto boom. But the overwhelming majority of those surveyed consider them to be just art projects or status symbols, with only 9% seeing them as an investment opportunity.Moreover, those hunting for the next asset-price bubble may do well to look elsewhere, since speculative manias rarely strike the same asset class twice. Ultimately, the next big run-up is expected by most respondents to be entirely unrelated to cryptocurrencies, with NFTs, the next generation of the internet known as web3 and other blockchain developments seen as having low chances of setting off the next frenzy.“The next financial bubble is always something different than the last bubble, so the majority is absolutely right on this one,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9047304821,"gmtCreate":1656863346664,"gmtModify":1676535905596,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted with thanks","listText":"Noted with thanks","text":"Noted with thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047304821","repostId":"1129634609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129634609","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656554042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129634609?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-30 09:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed on July 4 for Independence Day","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129634609","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"US Independence Day are around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 4 July 2022. Pl","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>US Independence Day are around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 4 July 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3652d76f0953e0c2d017b2fd446fbca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed on July 4 for Independence Day</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed on July 4 for Independence Day\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-30 09:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>US Independence Day are around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 4 July 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3652d76f0953e0c2d017b2fd446fbca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129634609","content_text":"US Independence Day are around the corner. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 4 July 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9042301510,"gmtCreate":1656428368630,"gmtModify":1676535826354,"author":{"id":"4115687416163232","authorId":"4115687416163232","name":"tigertail","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69424569a4b735a5fd9031d555bd0130","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4115687416163232","idStr":"4115687416163232"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay strong SG","listText":"Stay strong SG","text":"Stay strong SG","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042301510","repostId":"1153342680","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153342680","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656411050,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153342680?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-28 18:10","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stocks Eke Out Slight Gains Amid Recession, Inflation Worries; STI up 0.1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153342680","media":"The Business Times","summary":"SINGAPORE shares ran out of steam and traded underwater through most of Tuesday (Jun 28), although a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SINGAPORE shares ran out of steam and traded underwater through most of Tuesday (Jun 28), although an uphill struggle in the final hour paid off with marginal gains, as caution set in with lingering inflation and recession worries.</p><p>The Straits Times Index (STI) finished 2.67 points or 0.09 percent higher at 3,140.21, following an overnight pause in US stocks’ relief rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.7 percent, after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose amid continued rate-hike speculation.</p><p>Most bourses across the Asia-Pacific posted gains, from Japan, China and Hong Kong to South Korea, Australia and Malaysia. Taiwan, an outlier, closed 0.7 percent lower.</p><p>Their showing comes ahead of the release of some key US data, including a consumer confidence survey and housing-related figures, for further indication about the state of the world’s largest economy. A sharp uptick in oil prices lately is also weighing on markets, more so after an earlier correction in commodity prices fanned some hope that inflation may be easing.</p><p>Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said: “The recent global equities’ rebound is running out of steam despite positive month-end equity flows.” The markets also snubbed upbeat news out of China, the latest being an easing of quarantine rules.</p><p>“Lots of noise under the surface, but it is still about energy inflation, with the street also running with the recessionary baton,” he added.</p><p>On the home front, some 1.30 billion securities worth S$1.07 billion were traded. Gainers outpaced losers, with 271 counters up and 221 down.</p><p>Watches.com was one of the most actively traded counters by volume with 22 million shares done. The counter fell S$0.003 or 16.7 percent to S$0.015. Both Watches.com and Incredible Holdings have received notices of compliance by the Singapore Exchange’s regulatory arm over a series of transactions that would result in joint investments and cross-shareholdings.</p><p>Isetan (Singapore) on Monday (Jun 27) said its China-based associate will cease operations of 2 stores by year-end, following which Isetan will commence proceedings to wind up the associate beginning next year. Shares of the retailer rose S$0.03 or 0.8 percent to end at S$3.74 on Tuesday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stocks Eke Out Slight Gains Amid Recession, Inflation Worries; STI up 0.1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stocks Eke Out Slight Gains Amid Recession, Inflation Worries; STI up 0.1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-28 18:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-eke-out-slight-gains-amid-recession-inflation-worries-sti-up-01><strong>The Business Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE shares ran out of steam and traded underwater through most of Tuesday (Jun 28), although an uphill struggle in the final hour paid off with marginal gains, as caution set in with lingering ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-eke-out-slight-gains-amid-recession-inflation-worries-sti-up-01\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/singapore-stocks-eke-out-slight-gains-amid-recession-inflation-worries-sti-up-01","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153342680","content_text":"SINGAPORE shares ran out of steam and traded underwater through most of Tuesday (Jun 28), although an uphill struggle in the final hour paid off with marginal gains, as caution set in with lingering inflation and recession worries.The Straits Times Index (STI) finished 2.67 points or 0.09 percent higher at 3,140.21, following an overnight pause in US stocks’ relief rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.7 percent, after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose amid continued rate-hike speculation.Most bourses across the Asia-Pacific posted gains, from Japan, China and Hong Kong to South Korea, Australia and Malaysia. Taiwan, an outlier, closed 0.7 percent lower.Their showing comes ahead of the release of some key US data, including a consumer confidence survey and housing-related figures, for further indication about the state of the world’s largest economy. A sharp uptick in oil prices lately is also weighing on markets, more so after an earlier correction in commodity prices fanned some hope that inflation may be easing.Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said: “The recent global equities’ rebound is running out of steam despite positive month-end equity flows.” The markets also snubbed upbeat news out of China, the latest being an easing of quarantine rules.“Lots of noise under the surface, but it is still about energy inflation, with the street also running with the recessionary baton,” he added.On the home front, some 1.30 billion securities worth S$1.07 billion were traded. Gainers outpaced losers, with 271 counters up and 221 down.Watches.com was one of the most actively traded counters by volume with 22 million shares done. The counter fell S$0.003 or 16.7 percent to S$0.015. Both Watches.com and Incredible Holdings have received notices of compliance by the Singapore Exchange’s regulatory arm over a series of transactions that would result in joint investments and cross-shareholdings.Isetan (Singapore) on Monday (Jun 27) said its China-based associate will cease operations of 2 stores by year-end, following which Isetan will commence proceedings to wind up the associate beginning next year. Shares of the retailer rose S$0.03 or 0.8 percent to end at S$3.74 on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}