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TG88
Almost Dave, wish rezolve
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TG88
TG88
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2024-11-29
tiger ate my turkey this year 🤣🤣 TIGR
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TG88
TG88
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2023-01-31
$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$
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TG88
TG88
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2022-12-08
Tiok
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TG88
TG88
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2022-11-30
🤷
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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TG88
TG88
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2022-11-29
$Alibaba(09988)$
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TG88
TG88
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2022-11-29
GB
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TG88
TG88
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2022-10-15
$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$
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TG88
TG88
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2022-08-21
tiok
Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi
The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting t
Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi
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TG88
TG88
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2022-08-15
Tiok
Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively
SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth s
Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively
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TG88
TG88
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2022-08-06
Tiok
Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why
SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp
Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TQQQ\">$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$</a>","text":"$Nasdaq100 Bull 3X 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09:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157981129","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: Citigroup</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48c9ed4762e8711b6ec699fade11e18b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>U.S. stocks have clawed back much of their losses from the first half of the year, but the three major indexes tumbled this week under reviving fears about interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, and there are signs that the bulk of the bear-market rally is already behind us, said Citigroup’s analysts.</p><p>According to strategists at Citi Research, the current bear-market rally is almost in line with the length of an average bear-market bounce, and sentiment has already improved as much as it typically does during regular bear-market rallies, which would suggest a possible end to the rally relatively soon.</p><p>“Bear market rallies are often sentiment driven, as the market just becomes too bearish,” wrote Citi Research strategists led by Dirk Willer, the managing director and head of emerging market strategy, in a note on Thursday. “More fundamentally, many bear-market rallies are driven by hopes that the Fed comes to the rescue. The current one is no different, as the Fed pivot narrative has been an important catalyst.”</p><p>In particular, the chart below shows that the AAII bull-bear indicator, one of the closely-watched investor sentiment surveys, is almost back to levels where bear market rallies peak out, with expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increasing 1.2 percentage points to 33.3% in the week of August 15, while the bearish sentiment increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0778f6e5ac7376df8068417b41f6547\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG</span></p><p>Meanwhile, the SKEW index for the S&P 500, which measures the difference between the cost of derivatives that protect against market drops and the right to benefit from a rally, normalized almost as much as it does in the median bear market rally (see chart below), said Citi Research. The index can be a proxy for investor sentiment and volatility.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375f2ff2c6b5dcaf399914aded2b7ef9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG</span></p><p>Federal Reserve officials in July agreed that it was necessary to move their benchmark interest rate high enough to slow the economy to combat high inflation, while raising concerns that they may tighten the stance of monetary policy by more than necessary, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday.</p><p>After the release of minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he is leaning toward another large rate rise of 75 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the Fed “will do what it takes” to drive inflation back toward its 2% target, according to a Bloomberg report, while Reuters reported that Barkin saying the Fed’s efforts needn’t be “calamitous.”</p><p>According to Citi Research, the bear-market rally refers to a bounce equal to or larger than 10% that takes place between the peak and the trough. “If a new low is made after a 10% rally, the next rally of more than 10% is a separate bear market rally (or a bull market, if no new lows are made subsequently),” wrote strategists.</p><p>The S&P 500 was up 15.4% from its 52-week low of 3666.77 on June 16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 12.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 19.4% since their mid-June lows, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In total, Citigroup noted three indexes have experienced a 17% rally in the past 42 trading days since June 16.</p><p>U.S. stocks finished the week sharply lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292.30 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 33,706.74. . The S&P 500 was down 55.26 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 260.13 points, or 2.0%, to 12,705.22.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Are the Signs That the Bear-Market Rally in Stocks Won’t Last Long – Citi\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-20 09:45 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: CitigroupThe current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGESU.S. stocks have clawed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-signs-that-the-bear-market-rally-in-stocks-wont-last-long-citi-11660937380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157981129","content_text":"The size and duration of the bear-market rally is already in line with what is typical, suggesting the bounce is behind us: CitigroupThe current bear seems mature? GETTY IMAGESU.S. stocks have clawed back much of their losses from the first half of the year, but the three major indexes tumbled this week under reviving fears about interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, and there are signs that the bulk of the bear-market rally is already behind us, said Citigroup’s analysts.According to strategists at Citi Research, the current bear-market rally is almost in line with the length of an average bear-market bounce, and sentiment has already improved as much as it typically does during regular bear-market rallies, which would suggest a possible end to the rally relatively soon.“Bear market rallies are often sentiment driven, as the market just becomes too bearish,” wrote Citi Research strategists led by Dirk Willer, the managing director and head of emerging market strategy, in a note on Thursday. “More fundamentally, many bear-market rallies are driven by hopes that the Fed comes to the rescue. The current one is no different, as the Fed pivot narrative has been an important catalyst.”In particular, the chart below shows that the AAII bull-bear indicator, one of the closely-watched investor sentiment surveys, is almost back to levels where bear market rallies peak out, with expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increasing 1.2 percentage points to 33.3% in the week of August 15, while the bearish sentiment increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2%.SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERGMeanwhile, the SKEW index for the S&P 500, which measures the difference between the cost of derivatives that protect against market drops and the right to benefit from a rally, normalized almost as much as it does in the median bear market rally (see chart below), said Citi Research. The index can be a proxy for investor sentiment and volatility.SOURCE: CITI RESEARCH, BLOOMBERGFederal Reserve officials in July agreed that it was necessary to move their benchmark interest rate high enough to slow the economy to combat high inflation, while raising concerns that they may tighten the stance of monetary policy by more than necessary, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday.After the release of minutes of the meeting, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he is leaning toward another large rate rise of 75 basis points at the central bank’s September meeting. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the Fed “will do what it takes” to drive inflation back toward its 2% target, according to a Bloomberg report, while Reuters reported that Barkin saying the Fed’s efforts needn’t be “calamitous.”According to Citi Research, the bear-market rally refers to a bounce equal to or larger than 10% that takes place between the peak and the trough. “If a new low is made after a 10% rally, the next rally of more than 10% is a separate bear market rally (or a bull market, if no new lows are made subsequently),” wrote strategists.The S&P 500 was up 15.4% from its 52-week low of 3666.77 on June 16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 12.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 19.4% since their mid-June lows, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In total, Citigroup noted three indexes have experienced a 17% rally in the past 42 trading days since June 16.U.S. stocks finished the week sharply lower.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 292.30 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 33,706.74. . The S&P 500 was down 55.26 points, or 1.3%, to finish at 4,228.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 260.13 points, or 2.0%, to 12,705.22.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999506185,"gmtCreate":1660544399349,"gmtModify":1676533741699,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/67a0d366f6dae61c722ecb889cb93790","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4114404437468532","idStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiok","listText":"Tiok","text":"Tiok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999506185","repostId":"1114787638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114787638","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660543284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114787638?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-15 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114787638","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>'s Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.</li><li>But, management guided for $4.5B in revenue by 2025, which provides a precise performance yardstick for investors to assess. Furthermore, it implies a TTM revenue CAGR of over 30%.</li><li>So, we believe investors have been unduly concerned about a structural slowdown that management has not suggested in its commentary. Instead, it seems like a transitory pause in its sales cycle.</li><li>Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR, as we are confident it has formed its long-term bottom in May. Investors should capitalize on downside volatility to add more positions.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir Technologies Inc.'s </a> Q2 earningsrelease highlighted that the slowdown in its government business was so significant that it indicated the company is facing challenges in clinching new deals. Is it surprising? We don't think so.</p><p>We have noted that Palantir's government segment has slowed since its growth rates peaked in late 2020. PLTR stock has also reflected the reality in its underlying metrics, given its battering as the company lapped challenging pandemic-driven comps. Coupled with increased uncertainties spurred by the current macroeconomic dynamics, it has led to an elongated sales cycle.</p><p>However, management reiterated its confidence that its long-term growth trajectory remains intact, as it proffered specific revenue guidance as a yardstick. Compared to its previously-communicated 30% revenue growth guidepost, we favor its updated framework, as it helps us to validate our valuation models better.</p><p>Furthermore, PLTR closed the week resiliently despite an underwhelming earnings release. Hence, we are confident that PLTR has formed its long-term bottom in May as the market looks to re-rate SaaS stocks broadly.</p><p>Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.</p><h3>Palantir's Growth Could Slow Through H2'22, But Look Ahead</h3><p>We believe it's pretty clear from management's commentary that the company is facing a challenging sales cycle from its government customers, worsened by the macroeconomic headwinds. Therefore, we think it's only reasonable to posit that the impact could be felt through H2'22.</p><p>Notwithstanding, management accentuated that it remains confident in its medium-term growth trajectory as CEO Alex Karp highlighted FY25 revenue guidance of $4.5B and expects to turn profitable.</p><p>However, Street analysts and some investors pointed out that Palantir stopped issuing its previous 30% revenue growth through 2025. Some analysts felt that withdrawing such guidance suggests that the company could be experiencing a structural slowdown in the medium-term. Morgan Stanley highlighted:</p><blockquote>While the pause in government bookings appears temporary, it is notable that management decided not to reiterate its 30% long-term growth target. This suggests that management believes the sales environment could prove challenging not just for the next few quarters but potentially beyond. -Barron's</blockquote><p>We find that perspective interesting because Karp provided clear revenue guidance of $4.5 through FY25, which is immensely helpful in validating our reverse cash flow valuation model. Also, Palantir reported a TTM revenue of $1.744B in FQ2. Therefore, Karp's guidance implies a revenue CAGR of 31% through FY25. So is withdrawing the initial 30% guidance really something that investors need to worry about? We certainly don't see anything amiss here.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd072abbf4f6fc242cd2c3222cb934a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir revenue change % and adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)</span></p><p>Notwithstanding, the consensus estimates (neutral) suggest that Palantir's revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth are expected to reach a nadir by FQ4 before recovering remarkably through 2023.</p><p>We believe the estimates seem credible, as Palantir has been reticent to provide more clarity on the timing of the deals with which it has come under pressure. Moreover, the current macro headwinds clouded the company's visibility further. But Karp emphasized that he doesn't expect the medium-term growth cadence to deviate, as he articulated:</p><blockquote>And that's why I am positing, internally and externally, the growth in US government over a multiyear period will be at least as good in the future as it was in the past. However, that 35% CAGR included a number of years where it was flat or even negative, and that's just the frustrating part about contracting at our level. The contracts are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait. (Palantir FQ2'22 earnings call)</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b02033e0f92a0f312bd91b5a31bd23c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir revenue change by segment % (Company filings)</span></p><p>As seen above, Palantir's government revenue growth decelerated further to 13.3% in FQ2. However, even if we factor in a challenging H2 given tough macros, Karp's guidance suggests that its growth should normalize markedly subsequently. Therefore, investors could potentially be adding positions at levels that could align with the bottoming of Palantir's government revenue growth over the next six months or so.</p><p>PLTR's Price Action Remains Constructive</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20fb894fe0840f778111f234325336f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR price chart (monthly) (TradingView)</span></p><p>Furthermore, PLTR's post-Q2 sell down did not break the lows from July, as buying support returned remarkably, helping PLTR close robustly for the week.</p><p>Moreover, PLTR's bear trap (indicating the market denied further selling downside) in May on its long-term chart corroborates its long-term bottom, as PLTR has been gathering buying momentum.</p><p>Therefore, we are confident that investors should capitalize on any near-term downside volatility in PLTR to add more positions, as we believe it has already bottomed out. Hence, the upside risk/reward profile seems favorable.</p><h3>Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h3><p><i>We reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.</i></p><p>While we are cognizant of a marked deceleration in its revenue growth, we believe it's close to reaching a nadir (over the next six months) before reversing.</p><p>Our price action analysis also suggests that buying momentum has been returning to undergird its recovery since its May bottom as the market looks forward.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Don't Fear The Bears, Buy This Dip Aggressively\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-15 14:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.But, management ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4534223-palantir-dont-fear-bears-buy-dip-aggressively","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114787638","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's Q2 earnings release stunned some investors because its government revenue growth slowed dramatically. It also pulled its 30% revenue growth guidance through 2025.But, management guided for $4.5B in revenue by 2025, which provides a precise performance yardstick for investors to assess. Furthermore, it implies a TTM revenue CAGR of over 30%.So, we believe investors have been unduly concerned about a structural slowdown that management has not suggested in its commentary. Instead, it seems like a transitory pause in its sales cycle.Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR, as we are confident it has formed its long-term bottom in May. Investors should capitalize on downside volatility to add more positions.ThesisPalantir Technologies Inc.'s Q2 earningsrelease highlighted that the slowdown in its government business was so significant that it indicated the company is facing challenges in clinching new deals. Is it surprising? We don't think so.We have noted that Palantir's government segment has slowed since its growth rates peaked in late 2020. PLTR stock has also reflected the reality in its underlying metrics, given its battering as the company lapped challenging pandemic-driven comps. Coupled with increased uncertainties spurred by the current macroeconomic dynamics, it has led to an elongated sales cycle.However, management reiterated its confidence that its long-term growth trajectory remains intact, as it proffered specific revenue guidance as a yardstick. Compared to its previously-communicated 30% revenue growth guidepost, we favor its updated framework, as it helps us to validate our valuation models better.Furthermore, PLTR closed the week resiliently despite an underwhelming earnings release. Hence, we are confident that PLTR has formed its long-term bottom in May as the market looks to re-rate SaaS stocks broadly.Accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.Palantir's Growth Could Slow Through H2'22, But Look AheadWe believe it's pretty clear from management's commentary that the company is facing a challenging sales cycle from its government customers, worsened by the macroeconomic headwinds. Therefore, we think it's only reasonable to posit that the impact could be felt through H2'22.Notwithstanding, management accentuated that it remains confident in its medium-term growth trajectory as CEO Alex Karp highlighted FY25 revenue guidance of $4.5B and expects to turn profitable.However, Street analysts and some investors pointed out that Palantir stopped issuing its previous 30% revenue growth through 2025. Some analysts felt that withdrawing such guidance suggests that the company could be experiencing a structural slowdown in the medium-term. Morgan Stanley highlighted:While the pause in government bookings appears temporary, it is notable that management decided not to reiterate its 30% long-term growth target. This suggests that management believes the sales environment could prove challenging not just for the next few quarters but potentially beyond. -Barron'sWe find that perspective interesting because Karp provided clear revenue guidance of $4.5 through FY25, which is immensely helpful in validating our reverse cash flow valuation model. Also, Palantir reported a TTM revenue of $1.744B in FQ2. Therefore, Karp's guidance implies a revenue CAGR of 31% through FY25. So is withdrawing the initial 30% guidance really something that investors need to worry about? We certainly don't see anything amiss here.Palantir revenue change % and adjusted EBITDA change % consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)Notwithstanding, the consensus estimates (neutral) suggest that Palantir's revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth are expected to reach a nadir by FQ4 before recovering remarkably through 2023.We believe the estimates seem credible, as Palantir has been reticent to provide more clarity on the timing of the deals with which it has come under pressure. Moreover, the current macro headwinds clouded the company's visibility further. But Karp emphasized that he doesn't expect the medium-term growth cadence to deviate, as he articulated:And that's why I am positing, internally and externally, the growth in US government over a multiyear period will be at least as good in the future as it was in the past. However, that 35% CAGR included a number of years where it was flat or even negative, and that's just the frustrating part about contracting at our level. The contracts are so big and meaty that you got to kind of wait. (Palantir FQ2'22 earnings call)Palantir revenue change by segment % (Company filings)As seen above, Palantir's government revenue growth decelerated further to 13.3% in FQ2. However, even if we factor in a challenging H2 given tough macros, Karp's guidance suggests that its growth should normalize markedly subsequently. Therefore, investors could potentially be adding positions at levels that could align with the bottoming of Palantir's government revenue growth over the next six months or so.PLTR's Price Action Remains ConstructivePLTR price chart (monthly) (TradingView)Furthermore, PLTR's post-Q2 sell down did not break the lows from July, as buying support returned remarkably, helping PLTR close robustly for the week.Moreover, PLTR's bear trap (indicating the market denied further selling downside) in May on its long-term chart corroborates its long-term bottom, as PLTR has been gathering buying momentum.Therefore, we are confident that investors should capitalize on any near-term downside volatility in PLTR to add more positions, as we believe it has already bottomed out. Hence, the upside risk/reward profile seems favorable.Is PLTR Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?We reiterate our Buy rating on PLTR.While we are cognizant of a marked deceleration in its revenue growth, we believe it's close to reaching a nadir (over the next six months) before reversing.Our price action analysis also suggests that buying momentum has been returning to undergird its recovery since its May bottom as the market looks forward.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9905005464,"gmtCreate":1659762082860,"gmtModify":1703766384297,"author":{"id":"4114404437468532","authorId":"4114404437468532","name":"TG88","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/67a0d366f6dae61c722ecb889cb93790","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4114404437468532","idStr":"4114404437468532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiok","listText":"Tiok","text":"Tiok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9905005464","repostId":"1136904781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136904781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1659757961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136904781?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-06 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136904781","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-exp","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>BABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.</li><li>Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.</li><li>However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.</li><li>Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.</li></ul><p>Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.</p><p>Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.</p><p>While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to "outweigh any favorable valuation."</p><p>Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.</p><p><b>The Risks Are Still There</b></p><p>Alibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a "valuation reset" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.</p><p><b>1. Regulatory Crackdowns</b></p><p>Recent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.</p><p>Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.</p><p>And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.</p><p>In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.</p><p>The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.</p><p>Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.</p><p><b>2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act ("HFCAA")</b></p><p>Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.</p><p>Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.</p><p>In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission ("CSRC") is "considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data," but the agency would still like the ability to "withhold sensitive data from inspection" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess "unredacted" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries "have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks."</p><p>As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given "increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy." Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while "Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks." Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.</p><p>While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was "about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S." Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.</p><p><b>3. Global Economic Uncertainties</b></p><p>Even internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the "618" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.</p><p>This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment "declined mid-single-digit y/y" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's "88VIP" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.</p><p>The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.</p><p><b>Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation Update</b></p><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.</p><p>And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b23ccb7b6e755cf0baabe2ebb626b35\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49f4dec53abacb221e7b157ebc0da0ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)</p><p>On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d51c258a7e0988da0491680f467d4a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)</p><p>However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/478fbc394cf5dd111f0a9104aebcd4b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"153\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)</p><p>Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.</p><p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p>In the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.</p><p>For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.</p><p>Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Is Still Not A Buy, Here's Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-06 11:52 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4529653-alibaba-is-still-not-a-buy-heres-why?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A71","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136904781","content_text":"SummaryBABA gained close to 7% in pre-market trading on August 4th after reporting stronger-than-expected F1Q23 results.Revenues were flat from the prior year, its slowest growth on record, but still better than earlier expectations for declines given the challenging operating environment during the June quarter.However, the risks that were associated with Alibaba stock's selloff over the past ~2 years remain in a fluid state, with no signs of respite in sight.Paired with added challenges from a faltering economy at home and overseas, the stock is in for further volatility over coming months.Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF) stock rose close to 7% in post-earnings pre-market trading Thursday morning (August 4) after reporting better-than-expected results for its challenging fiscal first quarter. It beat consensus estimates on both revenues and EPS. Revenue came in at RMB 205.6 billion ($30.7 billion) for the June quarter, flat from the same period last year. Although it represented the slowest pace of growth on record, it was still welcomed by investors, as consensus had previously expected a decline for the first time in Alibaba's history due to sprawling city-wide lockdowns during April and May to stem the spread of COVID. Earnings for the June quarter also beat consensus estimates by $0.19 at $1.75, underscoring prudent cost controls amid inflationary pressure and increased costs of navigating through COVID disruptions.Yet, sentiment on the Alibaba stock remains fragile. All of its gains from the May to July rally have been wiped out in recent weeks, with the stock now down close to 20% since the beginning of the year. Volatility remains the broad-based theme for Alibaba stock, as positive uptrends supported by signs of easing regulatory crackdowns, an improving COVID situation in China, and government stimulus to shore up the Chinese economy get torn down once again on news of heightened worries. The moderate uptrend in pre-market trading following a positive earnings surprise this morning also underscores market's cautions about the Alibaba stock.While Alibaba's valuation appears attractive at current levels considering its robust balance sheet and still-dominant market share in e-commerce and cloud services in China, the investment continues to be overshadowed by risks that remain in a fluid situation. The fragility of Alibaba's rebounds observed over the past year underscores that the underlying risks to the investment continue to \"outweigh any favorable valuation.\"Considering Alibaba's long-term fundamental growth and valuation multiple expansion outlook remains a big question mark, with all of its biggest underlying risks still in a highly fluid situation that exhibits no structural signs of improvement, the stock holds almost nothing to stand on its own against the added challenge from brewing broad-based macro headwinds. Alibaba could potentially trend lower in the near-term, as its core Chinese market and adjacent international markets grapple with a faltering macroeconomic backdrop, making it a high-risk investment pick despite what look like attractive valuations compared to peers in a similar business.The Risks Are Still ThereAlibaba stock's downturn began in late 2020, when heightening regulatory concerns drove a \"valuation reset\" in U.S.-listed Chinese equities. The situation has continued to take a turn for the worse since, as the regulatory headwinds started to take an effect on Alibaba's fundamental performance. The added impact from recent macroeconomic headwinds, spanning COVID disruptions in China, and a faltering domestic and global economy have only exacerbated the unfavorable results.1. Regulatory CrackdownsRecent signs of easing scrutiny by Chinese authorities have done little in salvaging the losses sustained by the broader cohort of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, including Alibaba.Despite repeated vows to support market stability and calls that the extended regulatory crackdowns on the private sector - especially internet companies - are nearing an end, the ensuing rally was short-lived as investors' confidence buckled at the lack of concrete measures taken to date to salvage the carnage across Chinese equities.And, despite recent optimism stemming from the end to high-profile probes, the regulatory risks remain prominent, with investors' confidence also giving in. Markets continued to punish the stock at the first sign of regulatory weakness, as observed in recent declines following reports that Alibaba was levied a RMB 2.5 million($375,000) fine in early July for violating state rules on previous acquisition disclosures. Its cloud unit was recently investigated for association with one of the country's largest data breaches in history.In addition to fines, the regulatory scrutiny surrounding Alibaba's business has also resulted in other adverse impacts to its fundamental performance. The company's cloud-computing unit, Alicloud, is slowly losing market share to its state-backed peers due to increasing national security concerns within the public sector. The unit's market share in China fell from 46% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, while state-backed peer Huawei's cloud market share doubled over the same period. Despite still being the largest public cloud service provider in China, Alicloud is no longer the preferred choice, threatening Alibaba's consolidated bottom-line performance. This is further corroborated by the deceleration in Alibaba's highly profitable cloud business observed in the fiscal first quarter - the segment's revenues only grew 10% y/y, the slowest pace on record.The company has also reduced the size of its in-house investments unit. This is consistent with our earlier observations that it will only be a matter of time until Alibaba follows suit on its peers' pre-emptive moves in unloading investments and shutting down internal deal departments. Investments have played a substantial role in the development of Alibaba's comprehensive Internet ecosystem and related success in past years. The recent downsizing of Alibaba's deals, team operations, and subsequent reduction on external investments are expected to drive significant adverse implications to its fundamental performance, in addition to slowed growth observed in recent quarters, adding further pressure to its valuation prospects down the road.Yet, given the regulatory overhaul that has taken place over the past year, Alibaba's growth profile is unlikely to return to its explosive past, meaning any structural valuation upsides - which remains an area of high uncertainty - will be in moderation.2. Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (\"HFCAA\")Chinese equities also remain hostages to the HFCAA still, as the U.S. SEC steps up efforts to ensure all issuers in the U.S. stock exchange are subject to the same rules and regulatory treatment, including compliance with PCAOB audit inspection requirements. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain the only regions that have not yet complied with PCAOB audit inspection requests.Alibaba was recently added to the rolling list of delinquent issuers whose auditors have failed to comply with PCAOB inspection requests, renewing investors' fears of delisting risks for the stock. This has effectively started the clock on a three-year countdown for Alibaba, subjecting it to potential delisting from the NYSE if Chinese regulators cannot reach an agreement with the SEC and PCAOB on opening up the books of its domestic enterprises for inspection.In the latest development, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (\"CSRC\") is \"considering allowing U.S. officials to inspect documents on firms that do not possess sensitive data,\" but the agency would still like the ability to \"withhold sensitive data from inspection\" where applicable on the grounds of national security concerns. However, the offer still does not address the key reason for PCAOB audit inspections, which is the need to assess \"unredacted\" audit papers to ensure information reported in publicly disclosed financial statements are reasonable and free from material misstatements. Negotiations are ongoing, but the two countries \"have yet to reach a conclusive agreement on moving forward with the checks.\"As mentioned in our initial coverages on Chinese equities, increasing institutional exits due to burgeoning regulatory and economic risks in China will continue to drive downward valuation adjustments to the cohort until a concrete resolution is reached. This is further corroborated by the recent pullback in foreign funding allocation towards Chinese equities as discussed in earlier sections, given \"increased skepticism among U.S. pension funds and endowments about the growing political and market risks of Asia's largest economy.\" Many foreign investors have abstained from committing new allocations to Chinese funds over the past 12 months, while \"Florida's pension system has halted new investments in China [altogether] as it assesses the risks.\" Investments in China stemming from U.S. dollar-denominated funds have fallen for the third consecutive quarter to $1.4 billion as of March 31, marking the lowest sum since 2018. As a result, the valuation multiples on Chinese equities are continuing to lose their luster as institutional investors remain on the side-lines.While Alibaba's recent plans to pursue a primary listing in Hong Kong would open the door to incremental capital from mainland investors, related trading volumes remain a far cry from those in the U.S. - the average daily trading volume for Alibaba stocks in Hong Kong last month was \"about $700 million, compared to about $3.2 billion in the U.S.\" Although plans for a primary Hong Kong listing were viewed as a positive development by market participants, uncertainties over the Alibaba stock's future on the U.S. exchange remain a deterring factor to investors, considering declines observed last week following the announcement of the company's addition to the SEC's HFCAA shortlist as discussed in the earlier section.3. Global Economic UncertaintiesEven internal improvements at Alibaba, including stronger-than-expected March quarter results, improved retail trends observed during the \"618\" bargain shopping event, and plans for a primary listing in Hong Kong by year-end, have been unsuccessful in staging a sustained rally for the stock.This has added pressure to Alibaba's recent intentions to pivot its core Chinese commerce strategy from user acquisition to retention. Gross merchandise value - which measures the total value of transactions completed on Alibaba's core commerce platforms - in its core China commerce retail segment \"declined mid-single-digit y/y\" during the June quarter, with a meaningful drop in demand for discretionary goods accounting for the bulk of the setback. However, Alibaba's \"88VIP\" members - similar to Amazon Prime(AMZN) members - demonstrated strong purchasing behavior during the annual 618 shopping event, providing slight relief to the period's GMV decline thanks to budget-conscious bargain hunting as consumer wallets shrink.The slowing global economy is also threatening to derail Alibaba's recent shift in focus to growing its international e-commerce platforms. Alibaba's international commerce retail segment revenues declined by 3% y/y, while order volumes declined by 4% y/y during the June quarter. Rising inflation and tightening central bank policies across Alibaba's major overseas markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have resulted in weakening consumer discretionary spending, disrupting Alibaba's plans to compensate for deceleration in its domestic commerce business with international growth. The challenges have been further exacerbated by the EU's removal of VAT exemptions on Chinese imports, which has directly impacted order volumes on AliExpress in recent quarters. Increasing competition in Southeast Asia is also thwarting Alibaba's ambitions in international e-commerce, as observed by consecutive quarters of deceleration in order volumes at Lazada.Alibaba Stock - Fundamental and Valuation UpdateAdjusting our previous forecast for Alibaba's actual June quarter financial results and recent developments in its operating environment as discussed in the foregoing analysis, the company is expected to generate consolidated revenues of RMB 901.5 billion ($135.2 billion) for fiscal 2023, which represents moderate y/y growth of 6%. The adjustments take into consideration the downward shift in performance at segments - namely, Alicloud and international retail commerce - that were supposed to uplift Alibaba's growth trajectory and offset the near-term uncertainties within its core Chinese retail commerce business. Specifically, the modest growth rate applied on fiscal 2023 revenue projections intend to reflect the near-term headwinds pertaining to fundamental impacts from ongoing regulatory challenges, as well as global macro uncertainties.And over the longer-term, we expect the consolidated business to grow at a modest five-year CAGR of 4.6%, with Alicloud being the core driver. As mentioned in the foregoing analysis, the regulatory have materially transformed the explosive growth that Chinese big tech had once benefited from over the past few years. We expect any recovery to Alibaba's business over the longer-term to remain in moderation.Alibaba Financial Forecast (RMB) (Author)Alibaba Financial Forecast (USD) (Author)On the valuation front, we are maintaining a neutral stance on the stock with an expectation that the shares will remain in flux within the $100-range in the near-term. The valuation analysis assumes a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook considering Alibaba's growth profile as one of the largest big tech businesses in the world, adjusted by its current trading discount to U.S. counterparts like Amazon to account for the Chinese sector's risks.Alibaba Valuation Analysis (Author)However, considering the near-term macro uncertainties across both its domestic Chinese market and international markets, the Alibaba stock could potentially trend lower and contest the $80-range again - this bear case figure implies a perpetual growth rate in line with China's long-term GDP outlook, further discounted by a downward valuation adjustment in the extent of those experienced by peers in the tech industry during the heights of their regulatory turmoil.Alibaba Valuation Sensitivity (Author)Any structural momentum above the $100-range would require concrete evidence from both Alibaba and the Chinese government in maintaining resilience in the face of a faltering economy, and providing support for the private sector, respectively, in order to restore investors' confidence in the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese equities.Final ThoughtsIn the ongoing tug-of-war between attractive valuations and a growing profile of underlying risks, the latter continues to take a stronger hold on the Alibaba stock. Reiterating our stance from previous discussions, volatility remains the broad-based theme for the Alibaba stock, with no concrete near-term catalysts to offer respite.For one, ongoing regulatory and delisting headwinds are not only warranting a downward valuation reset compared to its U.S. counterparts, but also risking erosion into Alibaba's fundamental performance - a double-whammy to its market value.Investors continue to yearn for concrete resolutions to the challenging external environment for Chinese equities. However, this is likely still a while away, and even then, any upside recovery will be in moderation given that the old days of sprawling growth are likely no more.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}