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BRL2313

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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-11-30
  $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-18
  Good advice
  This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way
  Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a
  This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-16
  Who to listen to?
  JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy
  While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i
  JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-09
  Good read
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
  2.37K Comment
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-07
  Good advice
  3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy
  His advice might give your portfolio a boost, too.
  3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-06
  Useful info
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-09-01
  Dark clouds ahead
  Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications
  SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face
  Charlie Munger Predicted "Considerable Trouble" For Markets: SPY Implications
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-07-13
  I believe
  Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock
  Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien
  Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-05-23
  Good advice
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- BRL2313BRL2313
  ·2022-05-20
  Ok won't eat the apple now
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4231104f06431443cc427421883a6d8","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962410917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937743363,"gmtCreate":1663514307952,"gmtModify":1676537281766,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice","listText":"Good advice","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937743363","repostId":"1175700857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175700857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663468218,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175700857?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-18 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175700857","media":"RealMoney","summary":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.</p><p>In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.</p><p>There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.</p><p>The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.</p><p><b>Buying Later Rather Than Early Is Better</b></p><p>In previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.</p><p>Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.</p><p>It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.</p><p>I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.</p><p>This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn&#39;t mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn&#39;t a great strategy if there isn&#39;t any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.</p><p>I highly recommend using the &#39;average in&#39; strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don&#39;t just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.</p><p>Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1619508253632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Bear Market Advice Can Be Very Effective If You Do It In the Right Way\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-18 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208><strong>RealMoney</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-bear-market-advice-can-be-very-effective-if-you-do-it-in-the-right-way-16100208","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175700857","content_text":"Folks that watch the market very closely have a bias toward action. They become bored and restless and want to do something even when conditions are not favorable. This inclination leads to the most common advice in a bear market: to build positions by averaging into them.In theory, this is a great idea. No one can time the market with great precision, so a good way to build a position is to make smaller buys over a more extended period of time and hopefully end up with a pretty good average entry price.There is no disputing the wisdom of entering positions incrementally, especially in a poor market, but executing this strategy can be challenging. The most common mistake is to average into a position too big and fast. When positions are too large in a poor market, there is an increased risk of panic selling.The problem is that market participants tend to have a very strong tendency toward premature action. They want to act, and they also want to try to time the exact lows, and the combination of the two tendencies is that they act too early.Buying Later Rather Than Early Is BetterIn previous columns, I have discussed my view that buying later rather than early is better. If you buy after a low has occurred, there are precise support levels, and there is more likely to be sustained upside momentum. When you buy into the teeth of a decline, you have to hope that the downside momentum is about to stop and reverse. When the market is oversold, there can be some good countertrend bounces, but it is extremely hard to predict market lows prospectively.Averaging into positions in a bear market probably causes more significant damage to accounts than anything else. The big danger is that the timing is wrong, and the position becomes uncomfortably large and refuses to bounce. This evokes strong emotions and causes panic reactions.It is also essential to recognize that there is a risk that maybe you are betting on the wrong stock. Not every stock that sinks in a bear market will rebound when conditions improve. If you keep adding as it goes lower, you are setting yourself up for a major loss. This is another reason why it is important to look for some strength before you add to a position.I am a big fan of an incremental approach to trading and investing, but far too many people do it wrong. They are too focused on buying weakness and trying to time the bottom. You have to be willing to add into strength and not just on weakness. People tend to want to buy weakness because there is the illusion that they are getting a bargain, but in investing, you make the big money not by buying the low but by buying a sustained uptrend.This is a critical point that most market participants overlook. Just because a stock has found a low doesn't mean it will go up very much. Buying low isn't a great strategy if there isn't any significant high to sell in a reasonably short time frame.I highly recommend using the 'average in' strategy, but I would amend it in two ways. First, use short-term volatility to trade the position. If you catch a bounce, then reduce the position and look to rebuy as conditions improve. Second, look to build the core position on strength rather than weakness. Don't just endlessly buy as the price goes lower. Make the stock prove that it has some relative strength before you trust it.Averaging into a position is standard bear market advice, but it has to be done right to be effective.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937053532,"gmtCreate":1663329982627,"gmtModify":1676537253339,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who to listen to?","listText":"Who to listen to?","text":"Who to listen to?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937053532","repostId":"1166890805","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166890805","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663286370,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166890805?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 07:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166890805","media":"The Street","summary":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.</p><p>Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.</p><p>But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.</p><p>“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.</p><p>“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”</p><p>U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.</p><p>And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.</p><h3>Tailwinds for Stocks</h3><p>“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.</p><p>That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”</p><p>Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.</p><p>“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.</p><p>“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.</p><p>They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.</p><h3>Dalio’s Take: Less Enthusiastic</h3><p>Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategists</p><p>Looking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.</p><p>Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.</p><p>The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”</p><p>The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Bullish on Stocks, Sees Soft Landing for Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-16 07:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jp-morgan-bullish-stocks-economy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166890805","content_text":"While central bank warnings of steep interest rate increases have spooked some investors, JPMorgan is sanguine.Hawkish comments about interest rates by central banks around the world have some investors scared that economies and financial markets are headed for a downturn.But JPMorgan strategists, led by Marko Kolanovic, aren’t so pessimistic.“We maintain that economic data and investor positioning are more important factors for risky asset performance than central bank rhetoric,” they wrote in a commentary.“And the data appear to be increasingly supportive of a soft landing (rather than global recession), given moderating inflation and wage pressures, rebounding growth indicators, and stabilizing consumer confidence.”U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% in the 12 months through August, decelerating from the 8.5% increase for the 12 months through July.And the U.S. government reported Sept. 15 that retail sales climbed 0.3% in August from July.Tailwinds for Stocks“Our expectation that the global economy will stay out of recession, along with increasing fiscal stimulus (e.g., in China, and energy support in Europe) and still very low investor positioning and sentiment, should continue to provide tailwinds for risky assets,” the strategists said.That will override the “more hawkish central bank rhetoric recently,” they said. As a result, “we maintain a pro-risk stance in our model portfolio this month.”Recent geopolitical developments, such as deteriorating prospects of an Iran nuclear deal and of G-7 progress toward Russian oil price caps, “should be bullish for energy,” the strategists said.“But prices have yet to respond.” U.S. oil prices have dropped 28% in the past three months.“We advocate buying the dip in energy and keep our aggressive overweight rating in commodities and commodity-sensitive assets, given our super-cycle thesis, and as a hedge for inflation and geopolitical risks,” the strategists said.They also remain overweight stocks in general. Among equity areas they like are cyclicals, small caps and emerging markets, including China. They aren’t interested in expensive defensive stocks.Dalio’s Take: Less EnthusiasticMeanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund manager, isn’t as enthusiastic as the JPMorgan strategistsLooking at inflation, “my guesstimate is that it will be around 4.5% to 5% long-term, barring shocks (e.g., worsening economic wars in Europe and Asia, or more droughts and floods),” Dalio wrote in a commentary on LinkedIn.Dalio forecasts a range between 4.5% and 6% percent for long- and short-term nominal bond yields in coming years. Given the federal government’s hefty debt load, he thinks yields must rise to the higher end of that range.The yield increase implies “a significant fall in private credit that will curtail spending,” Dalio said. “This will bring private-sector credit growth down, which will bring private-sector spending and, hence, the economy down with it.”The rate rise will produce a 20% drop in stock prices, Dalio predicted. That too will depress the economy, he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936325587,"gmtCreate":1662711419849,"gmtModify":1676537124878,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936325587","repostId":"2266975278","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938029518,"gmtCreate":1662525189734,"gmtModify":1676537080710,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938029518","repostId":"2265838091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265838091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1662512886,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265838091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-07 09:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265838091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"His advice might give your portfolio a boost, too.","content":"<div>\n<p>There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Pieces of Warren Buffett Advice That Have Shaped My Investing Strategy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-07 09:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/06/3-pieces-of-warren-buffett-advice-that-have-shaped/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265838091","content_text":"There's a reason I admire Warren Buffett, and it's not just because he's managed to amass a multibillion-dollar fortune. One of the things that's always impressed me about Buffett is how generous he is with advice.Whether it's giving job-search tips to new college graduates or calming people's fears during a stock market crash, Buffett never seems short on words of wisdom. And through the years, I've followed a lot of his tips in the course of building my portfolio. Here are a few specific pieces of advice that have served me well and are worth paying attention to.Image source: Getty Images.1. Look for quality, not a bargainSome stocks trade at a hefty price point, so much so that in the past, I've balked at the idea of buying them. But one thing Buffett has always said is that it's important to focus on quality over price.You might have the opportunity to buy shares of a given tech company at $200 apiece while another company's shares trade for $500 apiece. But the $200 stock isn't necessarily the better deal. And so it's better to focus on the businesses you're buying into than the prices they're trading at.Incidentally, these days, many brokerages let you buy shares on a fractional basis. So if you're hesitant to spend a lot on a single share of stock, you don't have to.2. Hold stocks for a long timeBuffett has famously said that if you're unwilling to hold a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't even own it for 10 minutes. And that's advice I've followed since I started buying stocks.Some people think they can strike it rich in the stock market by buying low and selling as quickly as possible. But I'm a firm believer that the best approach is to load up on quality investments and hold them for many years so they can appreciate in value.3. Don't fall victim to peer pressureYears ago, meme stocks weren't a thing. Now, online influencers have the ability to drive stock prices upward or downward.But ultimately, meme stocks are a risky bet, namely because the businesses behind them are often shaky and unreliable. And so rather than buy meme stocks because they're trendy, it's better to focus on quality businesses that are likely to stay strong for years.The same holds true with crypto. Many people have invested in digital currencies over the past few years. But if you're not comfortable doing so because you think cryptocurrency is too speculative, put your money elsewhere. (Incidentally, Buffett is not a fan of crypto. At all.)Learn from one of the greatsIt's easy to look at someone like Warren Buffett and be envious of his success. But the reality is that while he's not going around writing checks to individual investors, he's more than happy to share some of his secrets in the hopes of helping others achieve their financial goals. And so whether you're new to investing or have been at it for years, it pays to keep these points in mind as you build up your portfolio.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931231919,"gmtCreate":1662463911531,"gmtModify":1676537065639,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Useful info","listText":"Useful info","text":"Useful info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931231919","repostId":"2265105088","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9939972067,"gmtCreate":1662047523062,"gmtModify":1676536796016,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dark clouds ahead","listText":"Dark clouds ahead","text":"Dark clouds ahead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9939972067","repostId":"1122895763","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122895763","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662045547,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122895763?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-01 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122895763","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Earlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face &#34;considerable trouble.&#34;</li><li>We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.</li></ul><p>Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett&#39;s partner at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire Hathaway </a> - recently opined that &#34;considerable trouble&#34; was coming for markets at the Daily Journal&#39;s (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:</p><blockquote><i>What we&#39;re getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it&#39;s like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they&#39;re having so much fun getting drunk that they don&#39;t think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that&#39;s the way it&#39;s usually worked in the past.</i></blockquote><p>He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:</p><blockquote><i>Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there&#39;s a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There&#39;s never been anything quite like what we&#39;re doing now. We do know from what&#39;s happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We&#39;re closer to terrible trouble than we&#39;ve been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.&#34;</i></blockquote><p>While the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF</a> has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the &#34;considerable trouble&#34; of which Mr. Munger spoke:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9e327d28d335c1ba952173a78d8bcb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts</p><p>However, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GME</a> continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a461d8b52be2c08bfdea7bd63aa4a6f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>GME data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/657129e113ae6df9d1e40ca014384412\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YCharts</p><p>We can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c7438df5f55651979a20fdff9651ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"852\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SPY data by YCharts</p><p>However, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be6eb93157e6cb1f12a1b5b0d7519ff8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YCharts</p><p>In this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.</p><h3>Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be Lackluster</h3><p>The biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger&#39;s remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:</p><p>1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.</p><p>2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&amp;P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.</p><p>3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve&#39;s latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.</p><p>When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.</p><h3>Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable Future</h3><p>That said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.</p><p>On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute&#39;s notice.</p><h3>Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very Possible</h3><p>As already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:</p><p>1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.</p><p>2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.</p><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>While these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:</p><p>1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.</p><p>2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.</p><p>3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61315c652f099418782c73479f3dd50a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>VIXdata by YCharts</p><p>For those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Charlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCharlie Munger Predicted \"Considerable Trouble\" For Markets: SPY Implications\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-01 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537755-charlie-munger-predicted-considerable-trouble-for-markets-spy-implications","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122895763","content_text":"SummaryEarlier this year, billionaire investor Charlie Munger predicted that the markets would face \"considerable trouble.\"We take a look at his prediction in light of recent macroeconomic developments and its implications for the S&P 500.We also share our approach to investing in the current environment.Billionaire investor Charlie Munger - Warren Buffett's partner at Berkshire Hathaway  - recently opined that \"considerable trouble\" was coming for markets at the Daily Journal's (DJCO) annual meeting earlier this year, stating:What we're getting iswretched excess and danger for the country. Everybody loves it because it's like a bunch of people getting drunk at a party; they're having so much fun getting drunk that they don't think about the consequences. Eventually, there will be considerable trouble because of the wretched excess, that's the way it's usually worked in the past.He went on define what he meant by wretched excess:Certainly, the great short squeeze in GameStop (GME) was wretched excess. Certainly, the bitcoin (BTC-USD) thing is wretched excess. I would argue venture capital is throwing too much money too fast, and there's a considerable wretched excess in venture capital and other forms of private equity...There's never been anything quite like what we're doing now. We do know from what's happened in other nations, if you try and print too much money it eventually causes terrible trouble. We're closer to terrible trouble than we've been in the past, but it may still be a long way off.\"While the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF has delivered -8.57% returns since that meeting, it has not yet experienced the \"considerable trouble\" of which Mr. Munger spoke:SPY Total Return Price data by YChartsHowever, we can certainly see that the wretched excess has continued in the months since and the symptoms of it have also increased. While the crypto bubble has continued to burst, with bitcoin down an addition 56% since Mr. Munger's remarks, GME continues to enjoy an elevated valuation:GME data by YChartsWe can also see that interest rates remain near historic lows - despite rising considerably in recent months - and the highly inflated money supply has remained relatively flat since Mr. Munger made his remarks:US Long-Term Interest Rates data by YChartsWe can also see that market indexes and especially housing prices remain elevated:SPY data by YChartsHowever, the consequences of all this excess and bubble-like behavior are beginning to be felt, with GDP declining for two quarters in a row and inflation soaring to four-decade highs in recent months:US Consumer Price Index YoY data by YChartsIn this article, we will discuss the implications that this has for the SPY as well as our investing approach in the current environment.Implication #1: Forward Returns Are Likely To Be LacklusterThe biggest takeaway from Mr. Munger's remarks in light of current macroeconomic and market conditions is that forward returns for the SPY are likely to be lackluster. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward:1. The economic growth outlook is weak, if not negative for the foreseeable future. Without strong economic growth, earnings growth is bound to be weak as well.2. Valuation multiples are elevated relative to historical averages. According to datacompiledby Current Market Valuation based on an equally weighted average of the Yield Curve, Buffett indicator, P/E Ratio, Interest Rate, Margin Debt, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models based on historical data, the market is currently towards the upper end of the fairly valued range. This means that it is almost overvalued, implying that the market is likely to experience lackluster, if not poor, returns for the foreseeable future. The SPY is overvalued according to the Yield Curve, Buffett Indicator, P/E Ratio, and S&P 500 Mean Reversion models, is slightly above fair value according to the Interest Rate model, and slightly below fair value according to the Margin Debt model.3. Interest rates are likely to rise further, based on persistently high inflation and the Federal Reserve's latestcomments. Higher interest rates in the near future will make the market seem overvalued at present according to the Interest Rate model, adding further weight to the argument that the market is overvalued at the moment. Higher interest rates will also act like gravity on asset valuations, driving them lower.When you combine weak growth with a lack of multiple expansion (and in fact likely multiple compression), very low dividend yields, and likely interest rate increases, there are no real catalysts to drive stock market returns.Implication #2: Volatility Will Likely Be Elevated For The Foreseeable FutureThat said, interest rates do remain historically cheap and there is still a lot of excess capital sloshing around in the global markets. As a result, there will still likely be plenty of dip buying, especially on any hints of inflation declining, the economy weathering the current headwinds better than expected, and/or the Federal Reserve beginning to change its hawkish stance. As the bulls and bears continue to duke it out in aggressive fashion, with bulls aggressively buying dips and bears aggressively selling rips on renewed fears of a recession and/or further interest rate hikes, volatility will likely remain elevated.On top of that, with geopolitical risks mounting in East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, there are plenty of potential further catalysts for sending stocks plunging lower at a minute's notice.Implication #3: A Market Crash Is Very PossibleAs already indicated in implication #2, a market crash is also very possible at the moment. The reasons for it are simple:1. As already highlighted, valuations are already bloated, so a crash would not require a stark departure from historical valuation levels. In fact, a crash might be necessary to fully correct financial markets from all of the artificial stimulus from central bankers over the past decade.2. There are numerous catalysts which could spark a market crash, and they seem more likely at the moment than at any time in recent memory: any number of geopolitical crises, ranging from a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to the war in Europe going nuclear, to a major energy crisis if a war begins between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a massive cyber-attack that significantly disrupts the global economy, a major new pandemic or variant of COVID-19 emerging, or even possibly a major global recession.Investor TakeawayWhile these are certainly complicated, if not extremely challenging, times for investors trying to navigate the markets, we are remaining fully invested. However, we are keeping the following principles in mind to guide us with greater prudence during this period:1. We are being highly selective by only investing in securities that appear to have a clear margin of safety, while keeping a small weighting in our most cyclical positions and overweighting our most defensive positions.2. We are avoiding taking on any personal leverage through this period in order to minimize our risk of outsized losses in the event of a market crash and to give us the capacity to potentially create some dry powder to capitalize on a market crash.3. We are also investing in securities that profit from elevated volatility as we believe that - even in a scenario where the markets do not experience a full-fledged crash - volatility levels will likely be above average for the foreseeable future due to the geopolitical and macroeconomic jitters that are gripping the markets with increasing frequency. As the chart below indicates, volatility as depicted by theVIXis up significantly from where it was before COVID-19 and is even up in 2022 relative to the second half of 2021.VIXdata by YChartsFor those who choose to continue investing in low-cost index funds like SPY, we are not bullish in the short-term, as - for the reasons outlined in this article - we expect lackluster economic growth, elevated valuations, rising interest rates, and the rising risks of a black swan event to suppress broad market total returns for the foreseeable future. As a result, we encourage investors to be more selective in the current environment than to blindly buy the broader market. At the same time, for those committed to passive investing over the long term, remaining fully invested with a practice of consistent long-term dollar cost averaging and prudent personal financial management is unlikely to deliver disappointing results over the course of decades. For that reason, we give the SPY a Hold rating right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078864157,"gmtCreate":1657671449979,"gmtModify":1676536042651,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I believe&nbsp;","listText":"I believe&nbsp;","text":"I believe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078864157","repostId":"1193691775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193691775","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657639889,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193691775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193691775","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patien","content":"<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Good News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGood News Is Bear News for Nvidia Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-12 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/07/nvda-stock-good-news-is-bear-news-for-nvidia/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193691775","content_text":"Nvidia(NVDA) stock continues to plunge.Investors fear a fall in demand from gaming and crypto.Patient accumulation will be rewarded.In a bear market, good news can always be spun as bad news.Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) investors were reminded of this on July 5.The good news is that the chip shortage may be easing. Prices for used gaming cards have plunged. Young gamers who wanted a graphics card for years can now get one, at list prices and lower.But this good news is also bad news. The new supply, from broken crypto miners, is coming as production falls.  There are reports Nvidia is cutting back orders from its manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM).The result is that NVDA stock, which was at $286/share in April, traded recently below $144/share.Short Term WeaknessDuring the bull market, Nvidia was a ferociously expensive stock. Now it’s just pricey.At its July 5 price, the company’s market cap of $362 billion is still almost 39 times last year’s earnings, and over 13 times last year’s sales of $27 billion.The good news is that underestimates the company’s power. First-quarter revenue came in at$8.3 billion, up 46%from a year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings were also up 49% from a year ago. But costs from the cancelled acquisition of ARM Holdings meant GAAP earnings were down 16%.The problem is that investors buy tomorrow, not yesterday. If prices for gaming chips continue to fall, Nvidia’s list prices will as well. That will cut earnings because a lot of the company’s revenue still comes from gamers.Nvidia is due to report its current quarter on Aug. 24, for the three months ending in July. Analysts currently expect $1.03/share of earnings and$8.11 billion of revenue. Field reports of slowing demand, however, indicate it could fall short. The most recent chip stock to report, Micron Technologies(NASDAQ:MU), gave weak guidance. They’re expecting a storm. Nvidia’s ship is being tossed, too.Long Term StrengthAnalysts continue pounding the table for NVDA stock, even as they cut their price targets.The reason is that lower prices open huge new opportunities. Car makers can now bring those autonomous driving features to the market. Nvidia’s artificial intelligence software can now be offered as a service, with Hewlett Packard Enterprise(NYSE:HPE) bringing it to the network edge. Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL) cloud gaming service, Stadia, may now be able to fulfill its promise with an Nvidia upgrade.Even while edge applications for Nvidia chips slow, like gaming and crypto, the cloud continues to grow. Data centers were the biggest buyers of Nvidia chips in the first quarter. Capital spending from the cloud czars, especially Google, Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), remains strong. Lower prices may just mean they’ll buy more Nvidia graphics chips for new applications. Eventually, cloud services at the network center will spur demand for support from the network edge, as prices for things like Meta Network(NASDAQ:FB) headsets come down. Meta, by the way, has been a big buyer of Nvidia chips for its “metaverse” activities.The Bottom Line for NVDA StockBear markets end.When they do, tech stocks will be the first to rise again. Companies like Nvidia make new money-saving ideas practical. They create new markets and growth. This has driven the economy forward for a half-century. It’s not changing.But bear markets also require patience. It’s easy to say, “buy the dip.” The problem right now is many investors have no cash with which to do that. That means the best advice is to hold your nerve.Nvidia may not rise again for several months. It may even go lower. No one is paying 13 times revenue for anything right now. The next few months may be brutal.The snapback, however, when it comes, will be something to behold. You’ll want to behold it from inside the Nvidia tent rather than outside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026972813,"gmtCreate":1653318593132,"gmtModify":1676535259790,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good advice&nbsp;","listText":"Good advice&nbsp;","text":"Good advice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026972813","repostId":"2237884509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021233037,"gmtCreate":1653056862029,"gmtModify":1676535216024,"author":{"id":"4092922656715030","authorId":"4092922656715030","name":"BRL2313","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1823f439c2831268c69f6466bf71f7b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092922656715030","idStr":"4092922656715030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","listText":"Ok won't eat the apple now","text":"Ok won't eat the apple now","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021233037","repostId":"2236670897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}