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alimoo9

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- alimoo9alimoo9
  ·01-24
  wrong assessment lols
  AMD: Don't Catch A Falling Knife
  SummaryAMD faces significant headwinds, including disappointing CES 2025 performance, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing their own chips, impacting AMD's customer
  AMD: Don't Catch A Falling Knife
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- alimoo9alimoo9
  ·01-24
  You need to understand that JP experienced very long deflation hence the only country with negative rates. A healthy economy should have 2% inflation year over year and JP does not have it. So raising interest rates is logical way to get them out of deflationary cycle.
  Bank of Japan Hikes Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points to Highest Since 2008
  BOJ Raises Overnight Call Rate to 0.50%
  Bank of Japan Hikes Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points to Highest Since 2008
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- alimoo9alimoo9
  ·2024-08-08
  I do not see anything good here, companies might find other alternatives, the reputational damage is too great to ignore.
  CrowdStrike: Short-Term Headwinds Provide Long-Term Opportunity
  CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity firm whose valuation has come down tremendously after the worldwide IT outage.CrowdStrike caused widespread computer crashes with a faulty update, impacting airp
  CrowdStrike: Short-Term Headwinds Provide Long-Term Opportunity
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- alimoo9alimoo9
  ·2021-08-22
  $ATVI 20210917 85.0 CALL(ATVI)$Lets see
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assessment lols","listText":"wrong assessment lols","text":"wrong assessment lols","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395950296547416","repostId":"1133990586","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133990586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737688246,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133990586?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-24 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Don't Catch A Falling Knife","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133990586","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAMD faces significant headwinds, including disappointing CES 2025 performance, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing their own chips, impacting AMD's customer","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_4031527322\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>AMD faces significant headwinds, including disappointing CES 2025 performance, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing their own chips, impacting AMD&#39;s customer base.</p></li><li><p>AMD&#39;s focus on AI CPUs is risky due to low workplace AI adoption and poor performance of Microsoft&#39;s AI Co-Pilot, suggesting limited demand for AI PCs.</p></li><li><p>AMD is losing market share to Nvidia in GPUs due to a lack of backward compatibility in new software, and Broadcom is emerging as a strong competitor in AI chips.</p></li><li><p>Long-term growth prospects in AI and data centers face headwinds as tech companies produce their custom AI chips instead.</p></li><li><p>Valuation analysis indicates AMD&#39;s fair value is around $96, with technical analysis suggesting a bearish trend, leading to a &#39;Sell&#39; rating with a $96 price target.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69a280546bd21205fe0041306e77ddd3\" alt=\"detail of cpu chip processor on aluminum heat sink cooler and lights effects\" title=\"detail of cpu chip processor on aluminum heat sink cooler and lights effects\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>detail of cpu chip processor on aluminum heat sink cooler and lights effects</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1269670165\">Brief/Overview</h2><p>Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is a major multinational technology company that manufactures microprocessors, embedded processors, and graphics processors (GPUs) for servers, workstations, personal computers, etc. The company is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.</p><p>In 2024, amidst the surge in artificial intelligence-related stocks, AMD underperformed, not only experiencing a decline of 18% in the year but also losing nearly half of its value from its 52-week high of $227 in March 2024, with the share currently trading around $115.</p><p>In this report, I will be highlighting major headwinds for the stock, such as the company’s disappointing performance at the CES 2025 event, a risk from a slowdown in hyper-scaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing and using their own chips instead of being AMD customers.</p><h2 id=\"id_2990571026\">Thesis/Triggers</h2><h3 id=\"id_703187871\">CES 2025—All Eyes on AI CPU Products</h3><p>AMD’s presentation at the highly anticipated CES 2025 event left investors and fans disappointed as it failed to mention or address the buzz topic—the company’s upcoming GPUs—the Radeon RX 9070 XT and RX 9070, as well as the RDNA 4 architecture. The company instead focused heavily on artificial intelligence and AI-related next-gen CPU launches, such as the new Ryzen 9950 X3D. Another major announcement was around the Ryzen AI 300 series processors, which is their product line for AI CPUs, especially Co-Pilot+ PCs.</p><p>To address the hype around AI CPUs first, I do not believe it is a very good idea for AMD to increase their consumer AI PC portfolio for many reasons. Firstly, there is little adoption of artificial intelligence in the workplace. Only 5% of respondents to a Deutsche Bank survey conducted in December 2024 said they extensively used AI tools for work-related tasks. This number has not improved since July 2024. Over a third of respondents still say that they do not use AI tools at all for workplace tasks.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7b2e14b03a3cc92025844065ef45ed1\" alt=\"DB Survey on workplace adoption of AI tools\" title=\"DB Survey on workplace adoption of AI tools\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span>DB Survey on workplace adoption of AI tools</span></p><p></p><p>Next up is the disappointing performance of the Microsoft AI Co-Pilot product. The product is so bad that Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff did not hesitate to criticize the same in their earnings call in August 2024. Benioff said that the solution had left many customers disappointed. Salesforce launched its Agentforce platform, which will empower customers to build their own bots, or “agents,” to perform tasks autonomously—across Salesforce CRM apps—with some degree of human oversight. While his criticism of Copilot could be attributed to the fact that Agentforce is a rival of Copilot, the average user is unhappy with the latter too, and so are Microsoft employees. As early as March 2024, users complained that Copilot was not as good as ChatGPT. Users as well as employees at Microsoft are unhappy with the new update launched in October 2024, making them question its effectiveness, with issues such as freezing and slower response times and less informative responses. Microsoft’s Copilot app fails to work with the company’s identity and access management platform Entra, prompting the company to advise organizations to uninstall the app. This could further stall adoption of the feature and AI PCs in general.</p><p>While those bullish on the stock may argue that an AI-driven PC upgrade/replacement cycle is near, there is little hope for AI PCs in my opinion, as that is what the data seems to indicate. A survey of 26,000 respondents showed that 84% of respondents were not willing to pay up premium prices for AI features on personal computers, 9% were unsure, and only 7% were willing to do so. IDC VP Linn Huang is of the opinion that AI PCs ramping up towards mass market status may only begin in 2026, which suggests it would be slower than mainstream expectations from Gartner and Canalys suggesting the AI PCs could make up nearly 40% of all PC shipments in 2025.</p><h3 id=\"id_790497641\">AMD losing out to Nvidia (in GPUs)</h3><p>Talking now about the GPUs—the RX 9070 and RX 9070 XT. AMD has confirmed that FSR 4 (Fidelity Super Resolution) will be exclusive to the new RDNA 4 GPUs, which reduces the potential for selling the other chips. While this may promote exclusivity and increase demand for the new chips, it is unclear why the company would do so knowing full well it would make them less competitive to Nvidia (NVDA), which has announced that it will make its Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS) 4 backward compatible to older hardware, i.e., all existing RTX GPUs. While AMD has shifted to more mid-range GPUs, the lack of backward compatibility of new software (the FSR) to older hardware (previous generation RDNA GPUs) negatively impacts how gamers view the company’s products, especially in comparison to Nvidia.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aba18f6d81eb9143f096d53f5e2f3eb0\" alt=\"AMD Vs NVDA Market Share in GPUs\" title=\"AMD Vs NVDA Market Share in GPUs\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/><span>AMD Vs NVDA Market Share in GPUs</span></p><p></p><p>The above graph shows the discrete market distribution of Nvidia and AMD in the Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) segment. One can see how over time, Nvidia, with its superior technology (and implementation), has chewed into the share of AMD.</p><p>As for the AI chips, AMD launched the MI325X in October 2024 to rival Nvidia’s Blackwell H200 Tensor Core GPUs. AMD claims these new chips have better performance than Nvidia’s H200 on memory capacity, bandwidth, and other features. However, Nvidia’s chips use their specialised programming language—CUDA, which has become standard among AI developers and entrenched in the AI ecosystem, which establishes Nvidia’s moat and protects its market share from competitors such as AMD. Additionally, the continuous R&amp;D across both companies means we never know when Nvidia may come up with a product that can rival even the improved AMD MI355X, which is set to launch in H2 2025.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/332bb8386cd46262f9ce1a199b09fb92\" alt=\"AMD MI325X Vs Nvidia H200\" title=\"AMD MI325X Vs Nvidia H200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\"/><span>AMD MI325X Vs Nvidia H200</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3641505727\">AMD losing out to Broadcom and Tech companies as #2</h3><p>So far, we’ve covered how AMD’s bet on AI Copilot PCs may fail and how the company is losing ground to Nvidia. In this section, I will be talking about how AMD may have also failed to be the closest competitor to Nvidia in offering AI solutions to mega-cap tech companies such as Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The closest rivals to Nvidia may be Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Technologies (ARM) or all these tech companies themselves as they begin developing their customized artificial intelligence chips.</p><p>Starting off with the largest of all these companies—Apple. The iPhone maker has, at several different points, or is currently, using AI chips from multiple companies such as Amazon, Broadcom, and Google to train its AI models for various features of Apple Intelligence across various devices in the Apple ecosystem. Apple’s senior director of ML and AI confirmed the company was using Amazon’s Graviton chips, which led to a 40% efficiency improvement. This shows that Amazon’s chips aren’t just useful for inferencing from AI models but also developing new models, thereby reducing the reliance on traditional chip makers such as AMD. In November 2024, Microsoft launched two additional AI infrastructure chips to increase the speed of AI operations and increase data security. Furthermore, companies are looking to Broadcom (AVGO) and not AMD for their custom AI chip solutions. Broadcom is being sought after extensively by multiple tech companies for their large-scale AI developments.</p><p>All these factors would suggest there is significant downside risk for AMD’s estimates of 26% revenue growth in 2025, as well as future revenue growth projections of over 20% CAGR.</p><h2 id=\"id_1598806784\">Valuation – Median-Multiple and Technical Analysis</h2><p>In order to arrive at a price target for AMD, I will be using two methodologies: the median multiple of comparable companies in order to estimate the fair value and some degree of technical analysis to gauge where the price is headed in the near future (6 to 12 months).</p><p>First up, the median-multiple analysis uses various valuation multiples: enterprise value EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, price/sales, price/earnings, price-to-operating cash flow, and lastly, the price to unlevered free cash flow. The comparable companies considered for AMD are Arm Holdings (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cf30dbde1210931c5d2dbf9348b09bb5\" alt=\"AMD Median Multiple Valuation\" title=\"AMD Median Multiple Valuation\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"/><span>AMD Median Multiple Valuation</span></p><p></p><p>While each valuation multiple produces different fair value estimates, I have considered the median of these various fair value estimates in order to arrive at a price target of AMD. As highlighted in the above Excel sheet, the median fair value estimate for AMD is roughly $99. For full disclosure, the average of these seven fair value estimates was approximately $121 (near close on 15th January 2025). I have chosen the median estimate to avoid the fair value estimate being impacted by extreme values (which were created by the EV/EBIT as well as both sales measures—P/S and EV/S).</p><p>This tells us the fair value of AMD may be between $99 and $121. Let us look at what the price action tells us. Below is the monthly chart of AMD with trendlines joining the closing highs of November 2021 and February 2024. The red trendline indicates support (buying) the lows of September 2015, February 2016, October 2022, December 2022, and July 2024. The orange trendline joins the lows of March 2018, October 2022, and December 2022. The monthly closing charts show AMD breaking down below both the red and orange trendlines, a significant bearish development. This suggests that price may be headed lower over the coming few months. The most likely destination, i.e., the next support level, comes at the $94.69 horizontal support line, which has candlestick contact points at the highs of August 2020, November 2020, December 2020, July 2022, and March 2023 and the lows of September 2021, April 2023, and October 2023.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9ae5b65a1ff3d8dfb088ed15c44b71e7\" alt=\"AMD bearish breakdown below trendlines\" title=\"AMD bearish breakdown below trendlines\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"/><span>AMD bearish breakdown below trendlines</span></p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_4270829156\">Conclusion</h2><p>Based on the headwinds that AMD faces, even in light of tailwinds for the semiconductor manufacturing industry, mainly competition from Nvidia and Broadcom in the GPU and AI chips market, as well as underperformance and limited demand for Copilot AI PCs and tech companies manufacturing their own AI chips, it seems that AMD’s price may be headed lower in the next 6-12 months.</p><p>My price target, based on the median of fair value estimates as well as evidence from technical analysis, is $99, which is about 20% below the closing of 15th January 2025, and thereby I place a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Don't Catch A Falling Knife\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-24 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4751255-amd-dont-catch-a-falling-knife><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAMD faces significant headwinds, including disappointing CES 2025 performance, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing their own chips, impacting AMD's customer...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4751255-amd-dont-catch-a-falling-knife\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4751255-amd-dont-catch-a-falling-knife","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133990586","content_text":"SummaryAMD faces significant headwinds, including disappointing CES 2025 performance, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing their own chips, impacting AMD's customer base.AMD's focus on AI CPUs is risky due to low workplace AI adoption and poor performance of Microsoft's AI Co-Pilot, suggesting limited demand for AI PCs.AMD is losing market share to Nvidia in GPUs due to a lack of backward compatibility in new software, and Broadcom is emerging as a strong competitor in AI chips.Long-term growth prospects in AI and data centers face headwinds as tech companies produce their custom AI chips instead.Valuation analysis indicates AMD's fair value is around $96, with technical analysis suggesting a bearish trend, leading to a 'Sell' rating with a $96 price target.detail of cpu chip processor on aluminum heat sink cooler and lights effectsBrief/OverviewAdvanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is a major multinational technology company that manufactures microprocessors, embedded processors, and graphics processors (GPUs) for servers, workstations, personal computers, etc. The company is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.In 2024, amidst the surge in artificial intelligence-related stocks, AMD underperformed, not only experiencing a decline of 18% in the year but also losing nearly half of its value from its 52-week high of $227 in March 2024, with the share currently trading around $115.In this report, I will be highlighting major headwinds for the stock, such as the company’s disappointing performance at the CES 2025 event, a risk from a slowdown in hyper-scaler capex growth, and mega-cap tech companies developing and using their own chips instead of being AMD customers.Thesis/TriggersCES 2025—All Eyes on AI CPU ProductsAMD’s presentation at the highly anticipated CES 2025 event left investors and fans disappointed as it failed to mention or address the buzz topic—the company’s upcoming GPUs—the Radeon RX 9070 XT and RX 9070, as well as the RDNA 4 architecture. The company instead focused heavily on artificial intelligence and AI-related next-gen CPU launches, such as the new Ryzen 9950 X3D. Another major announcement was around the Ryzen AI 300 series processors, which is their product line for AI CPUs, especially Co-Pilot+ PCs.To address the hype around AI CPUs first, I do not believe it is a very good idea for AMD to increase their consumer AI PC portfolio for many reasons. Firstly, there is little adoption of artificial intelligence in the workplace. Only 5% of respondents to a Deutsche Bank survey conducted in December 2024 said they extensively used AI tools for work-related tasks. This number has not improved since July 2024. Over a third of respondents still say that they do not use AI tools at all for workplace tasks.DB Survey on workplace adoption of AI toolsNext up is the disappointing performance of the Microsoft AI Co-Pilot product. The product is so bad that Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff did not hesitate to criticize the same in their earnings call in August 2024. Benioff said that the solution had left many customers disappointed. Salesforce launched its Agentforce platform, which will empower customers to build their own bots, or “agents,” to perform tasks autonomously—across Salesforce CRM apps—with some degree of human oversight. While his criticism of Copilot could be attributed to the fact that Agentforce is a rival of Copilot, the average user is unhappy with the latter too, and so are Microsoft employees. As early as March 2024, users complained that Copilot was not as good as ChatGPT. Users as well as employees at Microsoft are unhappy with the new update launched in October 2024, making them question its effectiveness, with issues such as freezing and slower response times and less informative responses. Microsoft’s Copilot app fails to work with the company’s identity and access management platform Entra, prompting the company to advise organizations to uninstall the app. This could further stall adoption of the feature and AI PCs in general.While those bullish on the stock may argue that an AI-driven PC upgrade/replacement cycle is near, there is little hope for AI PCs in my opinion, as that is what the data seems to indicate. A survey of 26,000 respondents showed that 84% of respondents were not willing to pay up premium prices for AI features on personal computers, 9% were unsure, and only 7% were willing to do so. IDC VP Linn Huang is of the opinion that AI PCs ramping up towards mass market status may only begin in 2026, which suggests it would be slower than mainstream expectations from Gartner and Canalys suggesting the AI PCs could make up nearly 40% of all PC shipments in 2025.AMD losing out to Nvidia (in GPUs)Talking now about the GPUs—the RX 9070 and RX 9070 XT. AMD has confirmed that FSR 4 (Fidelity Super Resolution) will be exclusive to the new RDNA 4 GPUs, which reduces the potential for selling the other chips. While this may promote exclusivity and increase demand for the new chips, it is unclear why the company would do so knowing full well it would make them less competitive to Nvidia (NVDA), which has announced that it will make its Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS) 4 backward compatible to older hardware, i.e., all existing RTX GPUs. While AMD has shifted to more mid-range GPUs, the lack of backward compatibility of new software (the FSR) to older hardware (previous generation RDNA GPUs) negatively impacts how gamers view the company’s products, especially in comparison to Nvidia.AMD Vs NVDA Market Share in GPUsThe above graph shows the discrete market distribution of Nvidia and AMD in the Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) segment. One can see how over time, Nvidia, with its superior technology (and implementation), has chewed into the share of AMD.As for the AI chips, AMD launched the MI325X in October 2024 to rival Nvidia’s Blackwell H200 Tensor Core GPUs. AMD claims these new chips have better performance than Nvidia’s H200 on memory capacity, bandwidth, and other features. However, Nvidia’s chips use their specialised programming language—CUDA, which has become standard among AI developers and entrenched in the AI ecosystem, which establishes Nvidia’s moat and protects its market share from competitors such as AMD. Additionally, the continuous R&D across both companies means we never know when Nvidia may come up with a product that can rival even the improved AMD MI355X, which is set to launch in H2 2025.AMD MI325X Vs Nvidia H200AMD losing out to Broadcom and Tech companies as #2So far, we’ve covered how AMD’s bet on AI Copilot PCs may fail and how the company is losing ground to Nvidia. In this section, I will be talking about how AMD may have also failed to be the closest competitor to Nvidia in offering AI solutions to mega-cap tech companies such as Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The closest rivals to Nvidia may be Broadcom (AVGO), Arm Technologies (ARM) or all these tech companies themselves as they begin developing their customized artificial intelligence chips.Starting off with the largest of all these companies—Apple. The iPhone maker has, at several different points, or is currently, using AI chips from multiple companies such as Amazon, Broadcom, and Google to train its AI models for various features of Apple Intelligence across various devices in the Apple ecosystem. Apple’s senior director of ML and AI confirmed the company was using Amazon’s Graviton chips, which led to a 40% efficiency improvement. This shows that Amazon’s chips aren’t just useful for inferencing from AI models but also developing new models, thereby reducing the reliance on traditional chip makers such as AMD. In November 2024, Microsoft launched two additional AI infrastructure chips to increase the speed of AI operations and increase data security. Furthermore, companies are looking to Broadcom (AVGO) and not AMD for their custom AI chip solutions. Broadcom is being sought after extensively by multiple tech companies for their large-scale AI developments.All these factors would suggest there is significant downside risk for AMD’s estimates of 26% revenue growth in 2025, as well as future revenue growth projections of over 20% CAGR.Valuation – Median-Multiple and Technical AnalysisIn order to arrive at a price target for AMD, I will be using two methodologies: the median multiple of comparable companies in order to estimate the fair value and some degree of technical analysis to gauge where the price is headed in the near future (6 to 12 months).First up, the median-multiple analysis uses various valuation multiples: enterprise value EV/sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, price/sales, price/earnings, price-to-operating cash flow, and lastly, the price to unlevered free cash flow. The comparable companies considered for AMD are Arm Holdings (ARM), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron Technology (MU), Nvidia (NVDA), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Texas Instruments (TXN).AMD Median Multiple ValuationWhile each valuation multiple produces different fair value estimates, I have considered the median of these various fair value estimates in order to arrive at a price target of AMD. As highlighted in the above Excel sheet, the median fair value estimate for AMD is roughly $99. For full disclosure, the average of these seven fair value estimates was approximately $121 (near close on 15th January 2025). I have chosen the median estimate to avoid the fair value estimate being impacted by extreme values (which were created by the EV/EBIT as well as both sales measures—P/S and EV/S).This tells us the fair value of AMD may be between $99 and $121. Let us look at what the price action tells us. Below is the monthly chart of AMD with trendlines joining the closing highs of November 2021 and February 2024. The red trendline indicates support (buying) the lows of September 2015, February 2016, October 2022, December 2022, and July 2024. The orange trendline joins the lows of March 2018, October 2022, and December 2022. The monthly closing charts show AMD breaking down below both the red and orange trendlines, a significant bearish development. This suggests that price may be headed lower over the coming few months. The most likely destination, i.e., the next support level, comes at the $94.69 horizontal support line, which has candlestick contact points at the highs of August 2020, November 2020, December 2020, July 2022, and March 2023 and the lows of September 2021, April 2023, and October 2023.AMD bearish breakdown below trendlinesConclusionBased on the headwinds that AMD faces, even in light of tailwinds for the semiconductor manufacturing industry, mainly competition from Nvidia and Broadcom in the GPU and AI chips market, as well as underperformance and limited demand for Copilot AI PCs and tech companies manufacturing their own AI chips, it seems that AMD’s price may be headed lower in the next 6-12 months.My price target, based on the median of fair value estimates as well as evidence from technical analysis, is $99, which is about 20% below the closing of 15th January 2025, and thereby I place a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":395951982707248,"gmtCreate":1737692899375,"gmtModify":1737701963300,"author":{"id":"4092023625449520","authorId":"4092023625449520","name":"alimoo9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e678c3287e100f9e733d8ea1ef63402","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092023625449520","idStr":"4092023625449520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"You need to understand that JP experienced very long deflation hence the only country with negative rates. A healthy economy should have 2% inflation year over year and JP does not have it. So raising interest rates is logical way to get them out of deflationary cycle.","listText":"You need to understand that JP experienced very long deflation hence the only country with negative rates. A healthy economy should have 2% inflation year over year and JP does not have it. So raising interest rates is logical way to get them out of deflationary cycle.","text":"You need to understand that JP experienced very long deflation hence the only country with negative rates. A healthy economy should have 2% inflation year over year and JP does not have it. So raising interest rates is logical way to get them out of deflationary cycle.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/395951982707248","repostId":"1142079999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142079999","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1737689039,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142079999?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-01-24 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank of Japan Hikes Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points to Highest Since 2008","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142079999","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"BOJ Raises Overnight Call Rate to 0.50%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points Friday to 0.5%, bringing its policy rate to its highest level since 2008, as it seeks to normalize its monetary policy.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 156.09 against the dollar, while country’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rose 0.59%.</p><p>Senior BOJ officials, including governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, had indicated the central bank’s willingness to raise rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BOJ will be watching closely the “shunto” wage negotiations, and hopes to see “strong wage hikes” in the 2025 fiscal year, Himino said in a speech to business leaders on Jan. 14.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a note on Jan. 21, Vincent Chung, co-portfolio manager for diversified income bond strategy at T. Rowe Price, said that moving forward, a rate increase will be followed by “a series of gradual hikes, potentially bringing the policy rate to 1% by the end of the year.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He added that the policy rate could even exceed 1%, as this is closer to the lower end of the BOJ’s neutral rate range.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In September, BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said the neutral rate “would be at least around 1 percent,” although BOJ does not have an official neutral rate forecast.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Chung noted that while Japanese officials have indicated that yen volatility has been significant, any substantial currency intervention akin to last year seems unlikely.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Last July, the yen hit its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, reaching 161.96. Japanese authorities later confirmed that they spent 5.53 trillion yen, or $36.8 billion, to shore up the yen in July.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Japan spent over 15.32 trillion yen ($97.06 billion) to shore up the currency over the course of 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Chung said inflation in the U.S. might increase later this quarter, and coupled with sustained economic growth, this could exert upward pressure on yields, which could strengthen the dollar — weakening the yen.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Investors should also consider that with potential major policy shifts in trade and the Fed nearing a pause, the two-sided risk to growth is likely greater this year than in 2024. Consequently, we expect realized volatility in USD/JPY to remain high in 2025,” he concludes.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank of Japan Hikes Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points to Highest Since 2008</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank of Japan Hikes Policy Rates by 25 Basis Points to Highest Since 2008\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-24 11:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points Friday to 0.5%, bringing its policy rate to its highest level since 2008, as it seeks to normalize its monetary policy.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 156.09 against the dollar, while country’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rose 0.59%.</p><p>Senior BOJ officials, including governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, had indicated the central bank’s willingness to raise rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BOJ will be watching closely the “shunto” wage negotiations, and hopes to see “strong wage hikes” in the 2025 fiscal year, Himino said in a speech to business leaders on Jan. 14.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a note on Jan. 21, Vincent Chung, co-portfolio manager for diversified income bond strategy at T. Rowe Price, said that moving forward, a rate increase will be followed by “a series of gradual hikes, potentially bringing the policy rate to 1% by the end of the year.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">He added that the policy rate could even exceed 1%, as this is closer to the lower end of the BOJ’s neutral rate range.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In September, BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said the neutral rate “would be at least around 1 percent,” although BOJ does not have an official neutral rate forecast.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Chung noted that while Japanese officials have indicated that yen volatility has been significant, any substantial currency intervention akin to last year seems unlikely.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Last July, the yen hit its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, reaching 161.96. Japanese authorities later confirmed that they spent 5.53 trillion yen, or $36.8 billion, to shore up the yen in July.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Japan spent over 15.32 trillion yen ($97.06 billion) to shore up the currency over the course of 2024.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Chung said inflation in the U.S. might increase later this quarter, and coupled with sustained economic growth, this could exert upward pressure on yields, which could strengthen the dollar — weakening the yen.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">“Investors should also consider that with potential major policy shifts in trade and the Fed nearing a pause, the two-sided risk to growth is likely greater this year than in 2024. Consequently, we expect realized volatility in USD/JPY to remain high in 2025,” he concludes.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXJ":"日本股利指数ETF-WisdomTree","SPY":"标普500ETF","FLJP":"Franklin FTSE Japan ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142079999","content_text":"The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 basis points Friday to 0.5%, bringing its policy rate to its highest level since 2008, as it seeks to normalize its monetary policy.Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 156.09 against the dollar, while country’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rose 0.59%.Senior BOJ officials, including governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, had indicated the central bank’s willingness to raise rates.The BOJ will be watching closely the “shunto” wage negotiations, and hopes to see “strong wage hikes” in the 2025 fiscal year, Himino said in a speech to business leaders on Jan. 14.In a note on Jan. 21, Vincent Chung, co-portfolio manager for diversified income bond strategy at T. Rowe Price, said that moving forward, a rate increase will be followed by “a series of gradual hikes, potentially bringing the policy rate to 1% by the end of the year.”He added that the policy rate could even exceed 1%, as this is closer to the lower end of the BOJ’s neutral rate range.In September, BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said the neutral rate “would be at least around 1 percent,” although BOJ does not have an official neutral rate forecast.Chung noted that while Japanese officials have indicated that yen volatility has been significant, any substantial currency intervention akin to last year seems unlikely.Last July, the yen hit its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, reaching 161.96. Japanese authorities later confirmed that they spent 5.53 trillion yen, or $36.8 billion, to shore up the yen in July.Japan spent over 15.32 trillion yen ($97.06 billion) to shore up the currency over the course of 2024.Chung said inflation in the U.S. might increase later this quarter, and coupled with sustained economic growth, this could exert upward pressure on yields, which could strengthen the dollar — weakening the yen.“Investors should also consider that with potential major policy shifts in trade and the Fed nearing a pause, the two-sided risk to growth is likely greater this year than in 2024. Consequently, we expect realized volatility in USD/JPY to remain high in 2025,” he concludes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4092023625449520","authorId":"4092023625449520","name":"alimoo9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e678c3287e100f9e733d8ea1ef63402","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4092023625449520","idStr":"4092023625449520"},"content":"It might still exist since JP interest rates are way lower than the rest of the world. But it would not be interesting for you since there is no way you can borrow JP yen unless you're in JP.","text":"It might still exist since JP interest rates are way lower than the rest of the world. But it would not be interesting for you since there is no way you can borrow JP yen unless you're in JP.","html":"It might still exist since JP interest rates are way lower than the rest of the world. But it would not be interesting for you since there is no way you can borrow JP yen unless you're in JP."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":336102404116680,"gmtCreate":1723092340366,"gmtModify":1723098144526,"author":{"id":"4092023625449520","authorId":"4092023625449520","name":"alimoo9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e678c3287e100f9e733d8ea1ef63402","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092023625449520","idStr":"4092023625449520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I do not see anything good here, companies might find other alternatives, the reputational damage is too great to ignore.","listText":"I do not see anything good here, companies might find other alternatives, the reputational damage is too great to ignore.","text":"I do not see anything good here, companies might find other alternatives, the reputational damage is too great to ignore.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/336102404116680","repostId":"2457522827","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2457522827","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1723088463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2457522827?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-08 11:41","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike: Short-Term Headwinds Provide Long-Term Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2457522827","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity firm whose valuation has come down tremendously after the worldwide IT outage.CrowdStrike caused widespread computer crashes with a faulty update, impacting airp","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity firm whose valuation has come down tremendously after the worldwide IT outage.</p></li><li><p>CrowdStrike caused widespread computer crashes with a faulty update, impacting airports, train stations, and offices.</p></li><li><p>The stock price of CrowdStrike plummeted nearly 15% following the outage, despite being up over 50% year-to-date.</p></li><li><p>We believe that, even when taking all the potential legal repercussions into consideration, CrowdStrike stock is currently a buy.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a262bc808484054bdb2b450f59af010a\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>SC STUDIO/iStock via Getty Images</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3716283991\">Introduction</h2><p>As you may be aware, CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) was the culprit that caused many Windows computers (MSFT) to crash when they pushed an update that contained a system-breaking bug. This meant computers used in airports, train stations, and offices could not work correctly.</p><p>The monetary consequences of the outages are challenging to estimate, but multiple companies were unable to continue business for just about eight hours of the day. Looking at CrowdStrike&#39;s return since the beginning of the year, it is evident that the stock took an extreme hit following the outage. The stock was up more than 50% YTD, but is now down almost 15% in a matter of weeks.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a90ea90d9d8b5b8414e162b55313ff4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"217\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>A drop such as what we have seen for CrowdStrike could present a very rare opportunity to add this stock to your portfolio at a relatively cheap price on a long-term basis.</p><p>In our previous article on CrowdStrike, we argued that while the business is sound, the stock may have been a bit stretched at the time. Still, recent excellent quarterly earnings have only solidified CrowdStrike as a significant player in the cybersecurity industry.</p><p>While the events in July were unfortunate and a major bump in the road for CrowdStrike, with chances it can affect business deals in the near term, the long-term growth story remains intact.</p><p>The main question that needs answering is how big of a hit CrowdStrike will take from possible legal action following the bug, which we will discuss in this article. In addition, we will give a short review of how major financial institutions adjusted their price for CrowdStrike following the incident.</p><p>But, before we start, let&#39;s take a look at the biggest IT security companies by market cap.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/586ed0e5afc65a56aca6d0a7fefa6e71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"/></p><p>Stock Info with Company Filings</p><p></p><p>As you can see, Palo Alto (PANW) is now by far the biggest, followed by CrowdStrike (CRWD), Fortinet (FTNT), Cloudflare (NET), and Zscaler (ZS). These are all excellent companies, but CrowdStrike was one of the most loved cybersecurity stocks and had a very high valuation multiple associated with it.</p><p>The recent outage changed this. Let&#39;s take a look and find out if CrowdStrike will be significantly impacted.</p><h2 id=\"id_3821153037\">Legal Repercussions</h2><p>The aforementioned incident led to approximately 8.5 million Windows devices globally crashing, resulting in significant operational disruptions across multiple sectors, including airlines, banks, healthcare facilities, and emergency services. The immediate financial impact is substantial, with damages potentially exceeding $1B and some estimates suggesting costs could reach as high as $5.4B for Fortune 500 companies alone.</p><p>This could have far-reaching implications for CrowdStrike, as some analysts have noted that the expenses associated with remedying the situation and the potential loss of customer trust could negatively impact CrowdStrike&#39;s financials in the near term. These costs include not only direct remediation efforts but also potential credits, discounts, and free products offered to appease affected customers, which will likely affect the company&#39;s margins.</p><p>The task for CrowdStrike right now is to review its service agreements with customers, as the incident falls under errors and omissions (E&amp;O) liability. E&amp;O insurance protects businesses from claims of negligence, malpractice, and service errors.</p><p>However, many service agreements limit liability to amounts often lower than actual business interruption losses. This limitation could pose significant financial challenges for CrowdStrike as the actual monetary damages materialize for CrowdStrike. It is possible that insurance policies may cover business interruption or IT failure, but severe cases which the CrowdStrike incident might fall under can result in irreparable damage.</p><p>CrowdStrike is facing a lawsuit from shareholders who accuse the company of fraudulently concealing its inadequate software testing, which led to the global outage on July 19 that crashed over eight million computers. Filed as a proposed class action in Austin, Texas, shareholders claim they were misled by CrowdStrike&#39;s assurances about its technology, which proved false when a flawed update caused widespread disruptions.</p><p>In addition, CEO George Kurtz was summoned to testify before Congress, and Delta Air Lines has already hired lawyers to seek damages, citing a $500M loss. Litigation is likely, with negligence being a primary legal theory. It is also possible that the incident could result in a class action lawsuit, which raises questions about how CrowdStrike accessed kernel-level updates on Microsoft operating systems without Microsoft&#39;s control.</p><p>Moving forward, there will likely be greater emphasis on cyber insurance policies to prevent such incidents. These policies are becoming more complex and tailored to cover various scenarios, including non-malicious system failures. The incident underscores the importance of robust cyber insurance as a safeguard against large-scale disruptions.</p><p>Let’s summarize before moving on. The incident poses significant challenges for CrowdStrike, with short-term impacts on the company&#39;s reputation and financial health. Regulatory scrutiny, legal battles, and increased insurance complexities will be critical factors in how CrowdStrike navigates this crisis and recovers from its effects. The size of the damage is still somewhat unclear, but we do know that CrowdStrike will have to redeem itself.</p><h2 id=\"id_1113889528\">CrowdStrike Faces Short-Term Challenges, but Long-Term Growth Story Remains Intact</h2><p>Following the incident on July 19th, several major financial institutions were quick to re-rate CrowdStrike, mainly citing short-term headwinds. Let&#39;s go over the primary ones.</p><p>After the outage, HSBC Global Research moved CrowdStrike from &#34;Buy&#34; to &#34;Hold&#34; and cut the price target from $388 to $302. HSBC may have cut the target price, but its analysts still see strong long-term potential. They are worried about near-term risks affecting results and guidance because of the outage, but overall, HSBC has lowered its revenue and earnings expectations for FY25 and FY26.</p><p>Despite CrowdStrike&#39;s quick and transparent response, this incident has hurt its short-term reputation. Ongoing investigations might affect deals closing late in the quarter. Due to these uncertainties, analysts think CrowdStrike might give conservative guidance in its next earnings call.</p><p>Morgan Stanley is still supportive of CrowdStrike&#39;s long-term potential but has taken the company off its &#34;Top Pick&#34; list because of the recent stock drop and near-term risks. However, they believe the stock is nearing its bottom and see the recent issues as a temporary setback. They expect CrowdStrike to lose about 20% of new bookings in the second half of 2024 but don’t think many existing customers will switch due to high switching costs. They’ve kept an &#34;Overweight&#34; rating with a $360 price target.</p><p>Jefferies also cut its price target for CrowdStrike, highlighting concerns about a lawsuit involving Delta. However, analyst Joseph Gallo mentioned that while CrowdStrike might not need to reimburse customers for the outage, but the costs of litigation and the CEO&#39;s congressional testimony will weigh on the company. They’ve reduced their annual recurring revenue estimates by 1% for FY25 and FY26, lowering the price target from $400 to $300 but still maintaining a &#34;Buy&#34; rating.</p><p>Gallo makes an interesting point that, given that the shares are down over 40% in the past month, CrowdStrike might issue preliminary results to reassure investors. He believes cautious FY25 guidance could help investors support the de-risked numbers.</p><p>To sum it all up, CrowdStrike faces significant short-term challenges due to the IT outage and ongoing litigation, leading to downgrades, lower price targets, and financial uncertainties. However, their quick response and the high switching costs for existing customers could be their saving grace. Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Jeffries still back CrowdStrike, focusing on its long-term growth potential. While the near future might be tough, CrowdStrike&#39;s strong market position and core strengths suggest that its long-term growth story is still solid. Investors should stay updated and keep a long-term view to navigate these challenges.</p><h2 id=\"id_2673498749\">CrowdStrike is still a great company</h2><p>Even though CrowdStrike&#39;s stock has taken a hit recently, there&#39;s still much to be optimistic about when considering its long-term growth. Let&#39;s break it down in simple terms.</p><p>First, their year-over-year revenue growth is at a hefty 34.26%. This is way better than the sector median of just 3.54%, showing they’re truly accelerating sales comparatively to their competitors. Looking ahead, they expect revenue to grow by 30.74%, which is still much higher than the average in their sector. Basically, they’re doing a great job and should keep pulling in good revenue.</p><p>When it comes to running things efficiently, CrowdStrike is killing also in a league of its own. They’re looking at an EBITDA growth of 47.01%, compared to a sector median of just 6.31%. This shows they’re not just growing, but making money while doing it. Their EBIT growth is also strong at 49.31%, which again is much higher than the sector’s 6.79%, showing they’re also managing their costs really well.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e9732b069b510134901fdb28352d6b5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"474\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Their EPS is yet another bright spot. CrowdStrike’s forward diluted EPS growth is expected to be 46.49%, much higher than the sector median. In addition, over the next three to five years, they expect an EPS growth rate of 37.24%, compared to the sector’s 14.49%. This is great to see if you want to add CrowdStrike to your long-term portfolio.</p><p>Financially, they’re in a good spot, too. Their levered FCF margin is 34.21%, way higher than the sector median of 10.02%, highlighting their ability to generate cash from their operations, which they can reinvest or give back to shareholders at far better efficiency than the sector. Their cash from operations is a whopping $1.25B, compared to the sector median of $97.94M, showing they have a lot of money coming in to keep things running and fund future growth.</p><p>Lastly, they have $15.22 cash per share, way above the sector median of $2.01. This gives them strong liquidity and financial flexibility.</p><p>So, while CrowdStrike&#39;s stock has dipped recently, its strong revenue and earnings growth, solid cash flow, and efficient operations suggest that its long-term growth story is still very much alive. Investors should consider these strengths when considering the company’s future potential.</p><p>If we take a short look at CrowdStrike’s chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we may be able to identify an interesting level where a buying opportunity could present itself. To keep it simple, we have identified some key support and resistance levels and coupled them with Fibonacci numbers from last year&#39;s lows to the most recent highs.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7903f61d6b700985fc85c91d90ea1cda\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\"/></p><p>Stock Info with TradingView</p><p></p><p>As the stock price is approaching $200, we can see that this price was previously a major level where the stock was bid, and this price also coincides very well with the 0.236 Fibonacci, at $201.61.</p><p>While the stock is definitely in a free fall at this point, we still like it long-term and would give CrowdStrike a buy rating at $200. Yes, this upcoming quarter may present some challenges for CrowdStrike. Still, simultaneously, the market could far overestimate the repercussions, meaning $200 could be a bargain for a growth stock such as CrowdStrike.</p><h2 id=\"id_1026916799\">Conclusion</h2><p>So, while CrowdStrike&#39;s recent IT mishap has thrown a wrench into their short-term plans, there’s still a lot to like about their long-term potential. The company faces some immediate hurdles, like potential lawsuits and a hit to their reputation, but they’ve also shown they can respond quickly and transparently.</p><p>Big players like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Jefferies still see them as a solid bet for the future, even if the next few months are rocky. If you’re thinking long-term, CrowdStrike’s strong fundamentals and market position might make it worth watching.</p><p>For those reasons, and the fact the stock has already sold off, we give CrowdStrike a buy rating at the current levels - particularly with $200 being an ideal price to add to your portfolio.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike: Short-Term Headwinds Provide Long-Term Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike: Short-Term Headwinds Provide Long-Term Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-08 11:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710845-crowdstrike-short-term-headwinds-provide-long-term-opportunity><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity firm whose valuation has come down tremendously after the worldwide IT outage.CrowdStrike caused widespread computer crashes with a faulty update, impacting ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710845-crowdstrike-short-term-headwinds-provide-long-term-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","IE00B3SWFQ91.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"E\" (USD) INC","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4560":"网络安全概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","BK4521":"英国银行股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1992135472.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INTELLIGENT CITIES \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710845-crowdstrike-short-term-headwinds-provide-long-term-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2457522827","content_text":"CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity firm whose valuation has come down tremendously after the worldwide IT outage.CrowdStrike caused widespread computer crashes with a faulty update, impacting airports, train stations, and offices.The stock price of CrowdStrike plummeted nearly 15% following the outage, despite being up over 50% year-to-date.We believe that, even when taking all the potential legal repercussions into consideration, CrowdStrike stock is currently a buy.SC STUDIO/iStock via Getty ImagesIntroductionAs you may be aware, CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) was the culprit that caused many Windows computers (MSFT) to crash when they pushed an update that contained a system-breaking bug. This meant computers used in airports, train stations, and offices could not work correctly.The monetary consequences of the outages are challenging to estimate, but multiple companies were unable to continue business for just about eight hours of the day. Looking at CrowdStrike's return since the beginning of the year, it is evident that the stock took an extreme hit following the outage. The stock was up more than 50% YTD, but is now down almost 15% in a matter of weeks.Seeking AlphaA drop such as what we have seen for CrowdStrike could present a very rare opportunity to add this stock to your portfolio at a relatively cheap price on a long-term basis.In our previous article on CrowdStrike, we argued that while the business is sound, the stock may have been a bit stretched at the time. Still, recent excellent quarterly earnings have only solidified CrowdStrike as a significant player in the cybersecurity industry.While the events in July were unfortunate and a major bump in the road for CrowdStrike, with chances it can affect business deals in the near term, the long-term growth story remains intact.The main question that needs answering is how big of a hit CrowdStrike will take from possible legal action following the bug, which we will discuss in this article. In addition, we will give a short review of how major financial institutions adjusted their price for CrowdStrike following the incident.But, before we start, let's take a look at the biggest IT security companies by market cap.Stock Info with Company FilingsAs you can see, Palo Alto (PANW) is now by far the biggest, followed by CrowdStrike (CRWD), Fortinet (FTNT), Cloudflare (NET), and Zscaler (ZS). These are all excellent companies, but CrowdStrike was one of the most loved cybersecurity stocks and had a very high valuation multiple associated with it.The recent outage changed this. Let's take a look and find out if CrowdStrike will be significantly impacted.Legal RepercussionsThe aforementioned incident led to approximately 8.5 million Windows devices globally crashing, resulting in significant operational disruptions across multiple sectors, including airlines, banks, healthcare facilities, and emergency services. The immediate financial impact is substantial, with damages potentially exceeding $1B and some estimates suggesting costs could reach as high as $5.4B for Fortune 500 companies alone.This could have far-reaching implications for CrowdStrike, as some analysts have noted that the expenses associated with remedying the situation and the potential loss of customer trust could negatively impact CrowdStrike's financials in the near term. These costs include not only direct remediation efforts but also potential credits, discounts, and free products offered to appease affected customers, which will likely affect the company's margins.The task for CrowdStrike right now is to review its service agreements with customers, as the incident falls under errors and omissions (E&O) liability. E&O insurance protects businesses from claims of negligence, malpractice, and service errors.However, many service agreements limit liability to amounts often lower than actual business interruption losses. This limitation could pose significant financial challenges for CrowdStrike as the actual monetary damages materialize for CrowdStrike. It is possible that insurance policies may cover business interruption or IT failure, but severe cases which the CrowdStrike incident might fall under can result in irreparable damage.CrowdStrike is facing a lawsuit from shareholders who accuse the company of fraudulently concealing its inadequate software testing, which led to the global outage on July 19 that crashed over eight million computers. Filed as a proposed class action in Austin, Texas, shareholders claim they were misled by CrowdStrike's assurances about its technology, which proved false when a flawed update caused widespread disruptions.In addition, CEO George Kurtz was summoned to testify before Congress, and Delta Air Lines has already hired lawyers to seek damages, citing a $500M loss. Litigation is likely, with negligence being a primary legal theory. It is also possible that the incident could result in a class action lawsuit, which raises questions about how CrowdStrike accessed kernel-level updates on Microsoft operating systems without Microsoft's control.Moving forward, there will likely be greater emphasis on cyber insurance policies to prevent such incidents. These policies are becoming more complex and tailored to cover various scenarios, including non-malicious system failures. The incident underscores the importance of robust cyber insurance as a safeguard against large-scale disruptions.Let’s summarize before moving on. The incident poses significant challenges for CrowdStrike, with short-term impacts on the company's reputation and financial health. Regulatory scrutiny, legal battles, and increased insurance complexities will be critical factors in how CrowdStrike navigates this crisis and recovers from its effects. The size of the damage is still somewhat unclear, but we do know that CrowdStrike will have to redeem itself.CrowdStrike Faces Short-Term Challenges, but Long-Term Growth Story Remains IntactFollowing the incident on July 19th, several major financial institutions were quick to re-rate CrowdStrike, mainly citing short-term headwinds. Let's go over the primary ones.After the outage, HSBC Global Research moved CrowdStrike from \"Buy\" to \"Hold\" and cut the price target from $388 to $302. HSBC may have cut the target price, but its analysts still see strong long-term potential. They are worried about near-term risks affecting results and guidance because of the outage, but overall, HSBC has lowered its revenue and earnings expectations for FY25 and FY26.Despite CrowdStrike's quick and transparent response, this incident has hurt its short-term reputation. Ongoing investigations might affect deals closing late in the quarter. Due to these uncertainties, analysts think CrowdStrike might give conservative guidance in its next earnings call.Morgan Stanley is still supportive of CrowdStrike's long-term potential but has taken the company off its \"Top Pick\" list because of the recent stock drop and near-term risks. However, they believe the stock is nearing its bottom and see the recent issues as a temporary setback. They expect CrowdStrike to lose about 20% of new bookings in the second half of 2024 but don’t think many existing customers will switch due to high switching costs. They’ve kept an \"Overweight\" rating with a $360 price target.Jefferies also cut its price target for CrowdStrike, highlighting concerns about a lawsuit involving Delta. However, analyst Joseph Gallo mentioned that while CrowdStrike might not need to reimburse customers for the outage, but the costs of litigation and the CEO's congressional testimony will weigh on the company. They’ve reduced their annual recurring revenue estimates by 1% for FY25 and FY26, lowering the price target from $400 to $300 but still maintaining a \"Buy\" rating.Gallo makes an interesting point that, given that the shares are down over 40% in the past month, CrowdStrike might issue preliminary results to reassure investors. He believes cautious FY25 guidance could help investors support the de-risked numbers.To sum it all up, CrowdStrike faces significant short-term challenges due to the IT outage and ongoing litigation, leading to downgrades, lower price targets, and financial uncertainties. However, their quick response and the high switching costs for existing customers could be their saving grace. Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Jeffries still back CrowdStrike, focusing on its long-term growth potential. While the near future might be tough, CrowdStrike's strong market position and core strengths suggest that its long-term growth story is still solid. Investors should stay updated and keep a long-term view to navigate these challenges.CrowdStrike is still a great companyEven though CrowdStrike's stock has taken a hit recently, there's still much to be optimistic about when considering its long-term growth. Let's break it down in simple terms.First, their year-over-year revenue growth is at a hefty 34.26%. This is way better than the sector median of just 3.54%, showing they’re truly accelerating sales comparatively to their competitors. Looking ahead, they expect revenue to grow by 30.74%, which is still much higher than the average in their sector. Basically, they’re doing a great job and should keep pulling in good revenue.When it comes to running things efficiently, CrowdStrike is killing also in a league of its own. They’re looking at an EBITDA growth of 47.01%, compared to a sector median of just 6.31%. This shows they’re not just growing, but making money while doing it. Their EBIT growth is also strong at 49.31%, which again is much higher than the sector’s 6.79%, showing they’re also managing their costs really well.Seeking AlphaTheir EPS is yet another bright spot. CrowdStrike’s forward diluted EPS growth is expected to be 46.49%, much higher than the sector median. In addition, over the next three to five years, they expect an EPS growth rate of 37.24%, compared to the sector’s 14.49%. This is great to see if you want to add CrowdStrike to your long-term portfolio.Financially, they’re in a good spot, too. Their levered FCF margin is 34.21%, way higher than the sector median of 10.02%, highlighting their ability to generate cash from their operations, which they can reinvest or give back to shareholders at far better efficiency than the sector. Their cash from operations is a whopping $1.25B, compared to the sector median of $97.94M, showing they have a lot of money coming in to keep things running and fund future growth.Lastly, they have $15.22 cash per share, way above the sector median of $2.01. This gives them strong liquidity and financial flexibility.So, while CrowdStrike's stock has dipped recently, its strong revenue and earnings growth, solid cash flow, and efficient operations suggest that its long-term growth story is still very much alive. Investors should consider these strengths when considering the company’s future potential.If we take a short look at CrowdStrike’s chart on the 1-hour timeframe, we may be able to identify an interesting level where a buying opportunity could present itself. To keep it simple, we have identified some key support and resistance levels and coupled them with Fibonacci numbers from last year's lows to the most recent highs.Stock Info with TradingViewAs the stock price is approaching $200, we can see that this price was previously a major level where the stock was bid, and this price also coincides very well with the 0.236 Fibonacci, at $201.61.While the stock is definitely in a free fall at this point, we still like it long-term and would give CrowdStrike a buy rating at $200. Yes, this upcoming quarter may present some challenges for CrowdStrike. Still, simultaneously, the market could far overestimate the repercussions, meaning $200 could be a bargain for a growth stock such as CrowdStrike.ConclusionSo, while CrowdStrike's recent IT mishap has thrown a wrench into their short-term plans, there’s still a lot to like about their long-term potential. The company faces some immediate hurdles, like potential lawsuits and a hit to their reputation, but they’ve also shown they can respond quickly and transparently.Big players like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Jefferies still see them as a solid bet for the future, even if the next few months are rocky. If you’re thinking long-term, CrowdStrike’s strong fundamentals and market position might make it worth watching.For those reasons, and the fact the stock has already sold off, we give CrowdStrike a buy rating at the current levels - particularly with $200 being an ideal price to add to your portfolio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832922369,"gmtCreate":1629563019551,"gmtModify":1676530071277,"author":{"id":"4092023625449520","authorId":"4092023625449520","name":"alimoo9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e678c3287e100f9e733d8ea1ef63402","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092023625449520","idStr":"4092023625449520"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$ATVI 20210917 85.0 CALL(ATVI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\"></a>Lets see","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$ATVI 20210917 85.0 CALL(ATVI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\"></a>Lets see","text":"$ATVI 20210917 85.0 CALL(ATVI)$Lets see","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8eba5f914aaade1f6a7e659b2458173","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832922369","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}