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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·03-10
  $上证指数(000001.SH)$
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2024-10-03
  $小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2023-07-27
  $小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2023-03-03
  $小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2021-09-06
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2021-09-06
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2021-08-23
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  杰克逊霍尔年会下周见！市场预期鲍威尔不会激起太大水花
  一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全
  杰克逊霍尔年会下周见！市场预期鲍威尔不会激起太大水花
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- whitehousewhitehouse
  ·2021-08-20
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20:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"杰克逊霍尔年会下周见！市场预期鲍威尔不会激起太大水花","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161742158","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全","content":"<p>一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。</p>\n<p>杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。</p>\n<p>不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月议息会议上宣布Taper的相关内容。</p>\n<h2><b>美联储Taper越来越近</b></h2>\n<p>美联储正面临何时开始回撤疫情期间超量宽松货币政策支持经济的关键节点。按以往经验看，鲍威尔可能会在本次会议上扔出“重磅炸弹”。</p>\n<p>在6月的FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，暗示2023年会有两次加息，但没有提到缩减QE。7月公布的FOMC会议纪要又显示，美联储确实已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识。</p>\n<p>部分美联储官员表示，如果美国经济的复苏步伐能与美联储预期一致，那么今年开始缩减QE是合适的。但也有一部分美联储官员认为，明年初开始缩减QE才比较合适。</p>\n<p>而最新公布的强劲的7月经济数据使美联储处于即将开启Taper的正轨之上。随着美国通胀持续爆表，就业大幅改善，牵动市场神经的美联储Taper可能来得比预期更快、更猛烈。</p>\n<p>投资者一直在寻求明确的缩减QE的时间，鲍威尔此前在7月FOMC会议后曾表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储将在通胀预期超出范围时调整政策，慢慢引导市场走向Taper。\n</blockquote>\n<p>鲍威尔表示，美联储“强有力的政策工具”存在诸多局限性，相比之下，财政或政府政策更加有力，货币政策无法带来定向的好处。这似乎是在为回撤超量宽松货币政策作铺垫。</p>\n<h2><b>华尔街预期美联储不会有大动作</b></h2>\n<p>对于美联储来说，“打开放水龙头”容易，“拧紧”时却需要谨慎，提前沟通，循序渐进，避免引发市场动荡。</p>\n<p>此外，疫情的肆虐使得杰克逊霍尔年会变得低调：来宾名单大幅缩减、当地开放设施受限制、与会者必须戴口罩，以及他们和家人都需要接种疫苗等。后来，美联储干脆将这次会议改为线上举行。</p>\n<p>部分投资者认为，本次会议不会有重大的政策公布。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>分析师Mark Cabana同意这类观点并称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们不认为现在是鲍威尔真正想有大干一场的时候。我们觉得，他不会在9月的美联储利率会议之前透露具体的Taper路线图。\n</blockquote>\n<p>TD Ameritrade首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan认为，Delta变异病毒令美联储处于观望模式，还不足以按下正式Taper的开启键，需要观察经济和就业能否以当前速度发展。</p>\n<p>Grant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，鲍威尔应提供美联储Taper路线图，但同时警告称，如果新冠疫情变得比预期更严重，美联储有能力后退一步。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">嘉盛集团</a>资深分析师Joe Perry认为，鲍威尔很有可能等到9月的美联储议息会议才宣布缩减QE，这将给美联储更多的时间，观察8月的美国非农就业数据究竟如何，并关注Delta变异病毒造成的确诊病例是否在下降。他称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储现阶段主要关注两点：一是8月非农就业数据，二是Delta变异病毒对经济复苏的影响程度。\n</blockquote>\n<h2>美联储Taper对市场影响几何？</h2>\n<p>尽管市场预计美联储缩减购债规模在即，但是在未来一年内加息的概率较低。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约价格显示，2022年11月加息的可能性约为50%，12月加息的可能性为69%。</p>\n<p>此外，美国经济前景不确定性相当高。Delta变异病毒令美国疫情出现反弹，可能会损害经济和就业趋势，且美国通胀持续高企，也会影响美联储公布Taper的具体细节。</p>\n<p>那么，这次美联储Taper还会引发市场“缩表恐慌”吗？</p>\n<p>华尔街分析师普遍预计，美联储经过多年经验积累，已经与市场逐步建立了有效的沟通机制。每次美联储会议都会对市场释放一些对未来政策和经济的看法。市场对美联储Taper已经有了足够的心理预期。</p>\n<p>Swissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，美联储此次收紧货币政策可能有所不同。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储宣布Taper后，美股短时间内可能会面临回调，但是单纯的美联储收紧货币政策不足以构成美股大幅调整的驱动因素，投资者不必恐慌。此外，利率也可能会在2023年前保持接近零的水平。\n</blockquote>\n<p>Independent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 目前市场关注的焦点仍是美国经济复苏情况和Delta变异病毒的影响。如果美国经济保持稳步恢复，就业情况持续改善，那么美股或将继续上行。\n</blockquote>\n<p>Oppenheimer Asset Management首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus也鼓励投资者保持乐观：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我不仅认为标普500指数可能会小幅走高，还认为年底前标普500指数可能会达到4700点。\n</blockquote>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n杰克逊霍尔年会下周见！市场预期鲍威尔不会激起太大水花\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-22 20:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。\n不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3638541","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2161742158","content_text":"一年一度的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将于8月26日至28日在线上举行，这是连续第二年在线上举行。本次会议的主题为“不平衡经济中的宏观经济政策”，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话。\n杰克逊霍尔年会一向被视为全球央行尤其是美联储下一阶段政策走向的风向标，今年的会议也一如既往地重要。市场普遍预期，鲍威尔会在本次会议上披露Taper路线图的更多细节。\n不过，疫情的反复增添了变数，有分析师认为，鲍威尔更可能在9月议息会议上宣布Taper的相关内容。\n美联储Taper越来越近\n美联储正面临何时开始回撤疫情期间超量宽松货币政策支持经济的关键节点。按以往经验看，鲍威尔可能会在本次会议上扔出“重磅炸弹”。\n在6月的FOMC货币政策会议上，美联储释放出令市场意外的鹰派信号，大幅上调今年经济和通胀预期，暗示2023年会有两次加息，但没有提到缩减QE。7月公布的FOMC会议纪要又显示，美联储确实已经开始讨论Taper事宜，不过无法达成共识。\n部分美联储官员表示，如果美国经济的复苏步伐能与美联储预期一致，那么今年开始缩减QE是合适的。但也有一部分美联储官员认为，明年初开始缩减QE才比较合适。\n而最新公布的强劲的7月经济数据使美联储处于即将开启Taper的正轨之上。随着美国通胀持续爆表，就业大幅改善，牵动市场神经的美联储Taper可能来得比预期更快、更猛烈。\n投资者一直在寻求明确的缩减QE的时间，鲍威尔此前在7月FOMC会议后曾表示：\n\n 美联储将在通胀预期超出范围时调整政策，慢慢引导市场走向Taper。\n\n鲍威尔表示，美联储“强有力的政策工具”存在诸多局限性，相比之下，财政或政府政策更加有力，货币政策无法带来定向的好处。这似乎是在为回撤超量宽松货币政策作铺垫。\n华尔街预期美联储不会有大动作\n对于美联储来说，“打开放水龙头”容易，“拧紧”时却需要谨慎，提前沟通，循序渐进，避免引发市场动荡。\n此外，疫情的肆虐使得杰克逊霍尔年会变得低调：来宾名单大幅缩减、当地开放设施受限制、与会者必须戴口罩，以及他们和家人都需要接种疫苗等。后来，美联储干脆将这次会议改为线上举行。\n部分投资者认为，本次会议不会有重大的政策公布。美国银行分析师Mark Cabana同意这类观点并称：\n\n 我们不认为现在是鲍威尔真正想有大干一场的时候。我们觉得，他不会在9月的美联储利率会议之前透露具体的Taper路线图。\n\nTD Ameritrade首席市场策略师JJ Kinahan认为，Delta变异病毒令美联储处于观望模式，还不足以按下正式Taper的开启键，需要观察经济和就业能否以当前速度发展。\nGrant Thornton首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，鲍威尔应提供美联储Taper路线图，但同时警告称，如果新冠疫情变得比预期更严重，美联储有能力后退一步。\n嘉盛集团资深分析师Joe Perry认为，鲍威尔很有可能等到9月的美联储议息会议才宣布缩减QE，这将给美联储更多的时间，观察8月的美国非农就业数据究竟如何，并关注Delta变异病毒造成的确诊病例是否在下降。他称：\n\n 美联储现阶段主要关注两点：一是8月非农就业数据，二是Delta变异病毒对经济复苏的影响程度。\n\n美联储Taper对市场影响几何？\n尽管市场预计美联储缩减购债规模在即，但是在未来一年内加息的概率较低。与美联储基准利率挂钩的期货合约价格显示，2022年11月加息的可能性约为50%，12月加息的可能性为69%。\n此外，美国经济前景不确定性相当高。Delta变异病毒令美国疫情出现反弹，可能会损害经济和就业趋势，且美国通胀持续高企，也会影响美联储公布Taper的具体细节。\n那么，这次美联储Taper还会引发市场“缩表恐慌”吗？\n华尔街分析师普遍预计，美联储经过多年经验积累，已经与市场逐步建立了有效的沟通机制。每次美联储会议都会对市场释放一些对未来政策和经济的看法。市场对美联储Taper已经有了足够的心理预期。\nSwissquote高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya指出，美联储此次收紧货币政策可能有所不同。\n\n 美联储宣布Taper后，美股短时间内可能会面临回调，但是单纯的美联储收紧货币政策不足以构成美股大幅调整的驱动因素，投资者不必恐慌。此外，利率也可能会在2023年前保持接近零的水平。\n\nIndependent Advisor Alliance首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示：\n\n 目前市场关注的焦点仍是美国经济复苏情况和Delta变异病毒的影响。如果美国经济保持稳步恢复，就业情况持续改善，那么美股或将继续上行。\n\nOppenheimer Asset Management首席投资策略师John Stoltzfus也鼓励投资者保持乐观：\n\n 我不仅认为标普500指数可能会小幅走高，还认为年底前标普500指数可能会达到4700点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838538491,"gmtCreate":1629418340013,"gmtModify":1676530032452,"author":{"id":"4087554477310970","authorId":"4087554477310970","name":"whitehouse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b10bbbdd0f9fe446c5a31c63177def","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087554477310970","idStr":"4087554477310970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"z","listText":"z","text":"z","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838538491","repostId":"1196316660","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}