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- JackLPTJackLPT
  ·2021-06-30
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  A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half of the year
  第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。 2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。这是瑞银对于即将过半的
  A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half of the year
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10:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half of the year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115229315","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。\n\n2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。\n这是瑞银对于即将过半的","content":"<p>First, focus on the opportunities in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second is the theme of economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and small and medium-cap stocks in the United States are already rising, and the energy sector will continue to rise in the second half of the year. The main story of 2021 is \"recovery\".</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>For a summary of investment keywords in 2021 that is about to pass half.</p><p>According to UBS statistics, in the first half of 2021, the best gains in U.S. stocks were cyclical stocks and value stocks. The energy sector of the S&P 500 jumped 47%, the financial sector rose 26%, and the broader cap technology stocks rose only 9%.</p><p>Recently, UBS released its investment outlook for the second half of 2021. Dr. Yifan Hu, Director of Investment and Head of Macroeconomics for Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management, explains in detail the various factors affecting investments in 2021. In this discussion, UBS summarized several issues that investors are most concerned about. Here are the main points of UBS:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2a2b7e38569aaff562e79ce2fe8334\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b>A shares lagged behind in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half</b></p><p>Some global markets have performed well since 2021 and are expected to improve further in the second half of the year, primarily driven by strong earnings growth. UBS predicts that global overall corporate earnings will rebound by an average of 30% in 2021, with the United States at an average level of about 30%, the United Kingdom at about 50%, mainland Europe at 40%, and Japan also having a rebound of more than 20%.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, the stock market is more attractive than the bond market, because the interest rate has put some pressure on the bond market in the process of rising, and the stock market will continue to perform better than the bond market in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, central banks will still adhere to a relatively loose position. Although inflation in the United States has risen sharply and the Federal Reserve may withdraw from the easing policy earlier than expected, it will remain quite loose in 2021.</p><p>So where are the opportunities for growth in the second half of the year? UBS recommends:<b>First, focus on the opportunities in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second is the theme of economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, small and medium-cap stocks in the United States are already rising, and the energy sector will continue to rise in the second half of the year</b>。 UBS's current expectation for oil prices at the end of the year is $78, but it may continue to raise it.</p><p>Asian equities are valued at a 30 percent discount to the rest of the world, while Asia's economic restart and strong earnings performance will support the performance of equities in the second half of the year. From a diversification perspective, stocks from emerging countries and regions, especially Asia, can play a role in the portfolio.</p><p>China's stock market has lagged behind the world in gains since the beginning of the year. During this time, the average global stock market rose more than 10%, but China only gained 2.5%, and the MSCI index of Hong Kong stocks only rose about 3%. However, China's economy actually performed quite strongly in 2021, with GDP rising by 18.3% in the first quarter and UBS forecasting between 7.5% and 8% in the second quarter. Growth is likely to slow down in the second half of 2021, mainly due to a higher base. UBS predicts that China's GDP will rise by about 5.5% in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Under the background of such economic growth, the average profitability of Chinese enterprises can achieve double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022, but the average price-to-earnings growth ratio (PEG) of China's stock market is less than 1.0, so China's stock market is more attractive. In the first half of 2021, the main pressure on A shares came from policies, especially for anti-monopoly supervision, but there are more opportunities for A shares in the second half of 2021.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>The next wave of golden opportunities for tech stocks: finance, health, green</b></p><p>Technology stocks performed very brightly in 2020, but they only increased by 9% in the first half of the year, far inferior to the energy and banking sectors. There are not many catalysts for the further rise of technology stocks this year, but UBS is still very optimistic about technology stocks in the medium and long term.</p><p>In the long-term portfolio concept, UBS believes that it should not only invest in large-cap technology stocks, but also look at more diversified technology investments, such as digital leaders in Europe, small and medium-sized companies in high-growth industries, and digital subscriptions. At the same time, sustainable investment has always been a very optimistic direction for UBS, and it is increasingly favored by investors in UBS's portfolio.</p><p>After the performance of the past decade, UBS believes that Europe's digital leaders will take the lead and benefit from the fourth wave of the industrial revolution. The next golden opportunity will emerge in the fields of fintech, health tech, and green tech, which will be realized and accelerated by benefiting from the promotion of 5G.</p><p>In sustainable investment, the outstanding performance is in the investment portfolio with low carbon intensity, so investors should take the initiative to select stocks and choose more diversified strategies in more sustainable investment; Among green technology investment opportunities, when it comes to picking stocks in the supply chain, UBS is now most optimistic about global stocks in Asia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Travel, select car dealers, suppliers with promising technological prospects, and advanced enterprises with innovation potential. At the same time, UBS is optimistic about green technology, the future of the earth, and carbon emissions trading.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Anti-inflation Investment Concept: Infrastructure is a Global Theme</b></p><p>In the United States \"inflation\" has become<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search trends for keywords. The main and fundamental reason for this wave of inflation is that the economic recovery is very strong and rapid, so it creates a large gap between supplies in the short term. According to UBS's forecast, inflation in the United States peaked in the second quarter, remained high in the third quarter, and began to decline slowly in the fourth quarter. Generally speaking, inflation is a relatively short-lived factor, but if there are some structural factors in inflation, such as the relatively insufficient supply of the labor market, it may lead to some wages rising; Or if all Americans spend their money, it will also push up inflation, and the current savings rate is as high as 15%; Enterprises may also pass on costs. If so, some short-term factors may become long-term factors, so take precautions.</p><p>UBS's overall inflation forecast for the United States is 3.7%, but due to the high base in 2021, there may be a rapid decline in 2022, but inflation is unlikely to exceed 3% for a long time. UBS believes that the Federal Reserve will propose a new average target framework.</p><p>In the process of preventing inflation, several major investment ideas may be needed: the stocks of companies with strong pricing power will be more attractive; High-quality growth stocks with reasonable prices, short-term bonds, infrastructure in private equity market, and commodities are all the directions that UBS pays more attention to.</p><p>At present, the global infrastructure gap is constantly increasing, and government investment is constantly increasing. For example, the United States has launched a \"2.3 trillion infrastructure plan\", but the government alone is not enough to meet the demand, so this provides opportunities for private investors. In this regard, UBS favors investment in related assets such as industry, logistics and data centers.</p><p>Commodity prices will follow suit with inflation. At present, the room for commodity prices to rise is not as fast as that in the first half of the year, but there will still be some room for continued rise. Especially when the CPI of the United States exceeds 2% and continues to rise, the energy industry often performs well.</p><p><b>4、</b><b>Improving Portfolio Returns: High Yield of China's Housing Corporate Bonds</b></p><p>Although inflation is rising, in the medium and long term, interest rates will remain at a relatively low level. Especially for the Federal Reserve, the basic interest rate will remain in the range of 0-0.25 before 2023. At this time, portfolio income, especially for investors who prefer defensive bond investments, how to improve portfolio income becomes more important.</p><p>UBS's strategy is to invest in some inflation-proof dividend-paying stocks, high-yield credit bonds and senior loans, and can have some \"alternative yields\" to boost investment returns.</p><p>Since 2021, the correlation between high-yield bonds and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond has been relatively small. The yield of Asian high-yield bonds is now as high as 7%, which is still attractive, especially the bonds of some relatively stable Chinese housing enterprises. Although the real estate market is generally tightening, the pressure on stocks is relatively heavy, but it is still optimistic about bonds.</p><p>In terms of dividend-paying stocks, some enterprises pay dividends of more than 3% annually, which is far better than similar bonds. UBS is particularly optimistic about big blue-chip stocks with dividends of up to 3%.</p><p>Senior loans are often secured and have floating interest rates, which means that once the Federal Reserve starts a rate hike, the interest rates of these senior loans will also rise, which is also the direction that UBS is optimistic about.</p><p>Therefore, you can increase the return of your portfolio by allocating these assets.</p><p><b>5、</b><b>Hedge Funds Are Most Effective Against Downside Risks</b></p><p>UBS believes that the potential downside risks that need to be paid attention to in the second half of 2021 mainly include: (1) inflation continues to rise, and (2) growth is not as good as expected. At present, the market is very confident in the second half of the year, but there are also potential risks that growth is not as good as expected. Although this is a small probability event, it does not rule out factors such as the resurgence of the epidemic, the heating of the situation between China and the United States, and the panic of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes the following measures can be taken to manage downside risks:</p><p>(1) Invest in hedge funds, which is the most effective way. Hedge funds perform better when the market is volatile. Especially for investors who are prudent in establishing long positions, hedge funds are a favorable option. In the past, the performance of the stock market and the bond market was the opposite, but in recent years, the convergence of stocks and bonds is increasing. Using stocks and bonds as diversification tools may not work so well, which makes the role of hedge funds as portfolio diversification tools even more important.</p><p>(2) Select some defensive stocks. For example, consumer industries, industries with long-term potential, and industries related to the growth of emerging markets.</p><p>(3) Option strategy. You can take profits from stocks that have already performed well and have limited upside, and use options or structured investment to guard against downside risks.</p><p>Of course, some investors think that they can wait for the risks to disappear, but UBS believes that waiting for the risks to subside may be a time-consuming and costly strategy in the process of rising inflation.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half of the year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA-shares lagged behind the global market in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half of the year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 10:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>First, focus on the opportunities in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second is the theme of economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, and small and medium-cap stocks in the United States are already rising, and the energy sector will continue to rise in the second half of the year. The main story of 2021 is \"recovery\".</p><p>This is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>For a summary of investment keywords in 2021 that is about to pass half.</p><p>According to UBS statistics, in the first half of 2021, the best gains in U.S. stocks were cyclical stocks and value stocks. The energy sector of the S&P 500 jumped 47%, the financial sector rose 26%, and the broader cap technology stocks rose only 9%.</p><p>Recently, UBS released its investment outlook for the second half of 2021. Dr. Yifan Hu, Director of Investment and Head of Macroeconomics for Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management, explains in detail the various factors affecting investments in 2021. In this discussion, UBS summarized several issues that investors are most concerned about. Here are the main points of UBS:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2a2b7e38569aaff562e79ce2fe8334\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><b>A shares lagged behind in the first half of the year and were more attractive in the second half</b></p><p>Some global markets have performed well since 2021 and are expected to improve further in the second half of the year, primarily driven by strong earnings growth. UBS predicts that global overall corporate earnings will rebound by an average of 30% in 2021, with the United States at an average level of about 30%, the United Kingdom at about 50%, mainland Europe at 40%, and Japan also having a rebound of more than 20%.</p><p>At the same time, in the first half of 2021, the stock market is more attractive than the bond market, because the interest rate has put some pressure on the bond market in the process of rising, and the stock market will continue to perform better than the bond market in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, central banks will still adhere to a relatively loose position. Although inflation in the United States has risen sharply and the Federal Reserve may withdraw from the easing policy earlier than expected, it will remain quite loose in 2021.</p><p>So where are the opportunities for growth in the second half of the year? UBS recommends:<b>First, focus on the opportunities in Asia, especially China and Japan; The second is the theme of economic restart and recovery. Energy, materials, finance, small and medium-cap stocks in the United States are already rising, and the energy sector will continue to rise in the second half of the year</b>。 UBS's current expectation for oil prices at the end of the year is $78, but it may continue to raise it.</p><p>Asian equities are valued at a 30 percent discount to the rest of the world, while Asia's economic restart and strong earnings performance will support the performance of equities in the second half of the year. From a diversification perspective, stocks from emerging countries and regions, especially Asia, can play a role in the portfolio.</p><p>China's stock market has lagged behind the world in gains since the beginning of the year. During this time, the average global stock market rose more than 10%, but China only gained 2.5%, and the MSCI index of Hong Kong stocks only rose about 3%. However, China's economy actually performed quite strongly in 2021, with GDP rising by 18.3% in the first quarter and UBS forecasting between 7.5% and 8% in the second quarter. Growth is likely to slow down in the second half of 2021, mainly due to a higher base. UBS predicts that China's GDP will rise by about 5.5% in the second half of 2021.</p><p>Under the background of such economic growth, the average profitability of Chinese enterprises can achieve double-digit growth in 2021 and 2022, but the average price-to-earnings growth ratio (PEG) of China's stock market is less than 1.0, so China's stock market is more attractive. In the first half of 2021, the main pressure on A shares came from policies, especially for anti-monopoly supervision, but there are more opportunities for A shares in the second half of 2021.</p><p><b>2、</b><b>The next wave of golden opportunities for tech stocks: finance, health, green</b></p><p>Technology stocks performed very brightly in 2020, but they only increased by 9% in the first half of the year, far inferior to the energy and banking sectors. There are not many catalysts for the further rise of technology stocks this year, but UBS is still very optimistic about technology stocks in the medium and long term.</p><p>In the long-term portfolio concept, UBS believes that it should not only invest in large-cap technology stocks, but also look at more diversified technology investments, such as digital leaders in Europe, small and medium-sized companies in high-growth industries, and digital subscriptions. At the same time, sustainable investment has always been a very optimistic direction for UBS, and it is increasingly favored by investors in UBS's portfolio.</p><p>After the performance of the past decade, UBS believes that Europe's digital leaders will take the lead and benefit from the fourth wave of the industrial revolution. The next golden opportunity will emerge in the fields of fintech, health tech, and green tech, which will be realized and accelerated by benefiting from the promotion of 5G.</p><p>In sustainable investment, the outstanding performance is in the investment portfolio with low carbon intensity, so investors should take the initiative to select stocks and choose more diversified strategies in more sustainable investment; Among green technology investment opportunities, when it comes to picking stocks in the supply chain, UBS is now most optimistic about global stocks in Asia<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Travel, select car dealers, suppliers with promising technological prospects, and advanced enterprises with innovation potential. At the same time, UBS is optimistic about green technology, the future of the earth, and carbon emissions trading.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Anti-inflation Investment Concept: Infrastructure is a Global Theme</b></p><p>In the United States \"inflation\" has become<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search trends for keywords. The main and fundamental reason for this wave of inflation is that the economic recovery is very strong and rapid, so it creates a large gap between supplies in the short term. According to UBS's forecast, inflation in the United States peaked in the second quarter, remained high in the third quarter, and began to decline slowly in the fourth quarter. Generally speaking, inflation is a relatively short-lived factor, but if there are some structural factors in inflation, such as the relatively insufficient supply of the labor market, it may lead to some wages rising; Or if all Americans spend their money, it will also push up inflation, and the current savings rate is as high as 15%; Enterprises may also pass on costs. If so, some short-term factors may become long-term factors, so take precautions.</p><p>UBS's overall inflation forecast for the United States is 3.7%, but due to the high base in 2021, there may be a rapid decline in 2022, but inflation is unlikely to exceed 3% for a long time. UBS believes that the Federal Reserve will propose a new average target framework.</p><p>In the process of preventing inflation, several major investment ideas may be needed: the stocks of companies with strong pricing power will be more attractive; High-quality growth stocks with reasonable prices, short-term bonds, infrastructure in private equity market, and commodities are all the directions that UBS pays more attention to.</p><p>At present, the global infrastructure gap is constantly increasing, and government investment is constantly increasing. For example, the United States has launched a \"2.3 trillion infrastructure plan\", but the government alone is not enough to meet the demand, so this provides opportunities for private investors. In this regard, UBS favors investment in related assets such as industry, logistics and data centers.</p><p>Commodity prices will follow suit with inflation. At present, the room for commodity prices to rise is not as fast as that in the first half of the year, but there will still be some room for continued rise. Especially when the CPI of the United States exceeds 2% and continues to rise, the energy industry often performs well.</p><p><b>4、</b><b>Improving Portfolio Returns: High Yield of China's Housing Corporate Bonds</b></p><p>Although inflation is rising, in the medium and long term, interest rates will remain at a relatively low level. Especially for the Federal Reserve, the basic interest rate will remain in the range of 0-0.25 before 2023. At this time, portfolio income, especially for investors who prefer defensive bond investments, how to improve portfolio income becomes more important.</p><p>UBS's strategy is to invest in some inflation-proof dividend-paying stocks, high-yield credit bonds and senior loans, and can have some \"alternative yields\" to boost investment returns.</p><p>Since 2021, the correlation between high-yield bonds and the U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond has been relatively small. The yield of Asian high-yield bonds is now as high as 7%, which is still attractive, especially the bonds of some relatively stable Chinese housing enterprises. Although the real estate market is generally tightening, the pressure on stocks is relatively heavy, but it is still optimistic about bonds.</p><p>In terms of dividend-paying stocks, some enterprises pay dividends of more than 3% annually, which is far better than similar bonds. UBS is particularly optimistic about big blue-chip stocks with dividends of up to 3%.</p><p>Senior loans are often secured and have floating interest rates, which means that once the Federal Reserve starts a rate hike, the interest rates of these senior loans will also rise, which is also the direction that UBS is optimistic about.</p><p>Therefore, you can increase the return of your portfolio by allocating these assets.</p><p><b>5、</b><b>Hedge Funds Are Most Effective Against Downside Risks</b></p><p>UBS believes that the potential downside risks that need to be paid attention to in the second half of 2021 mainly include: (1) inflation continues to rise, and (2) growth is not as good as expected. At present, the market is very confident in the second half of the year, but there are also potential risks that growth is not as good as expected. Although this is a small probability event, it does not rule out factors such as the resurgence of the epidemic, the heating of the situation between China and the United States, and the panic of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Therefore, UBS believes the following measures can be taken to manage downside risks:</p><p>(1) Invest in hedge funds, which is the most effective way. Hedge funds perform better when the market is volatile. Especially for investors who are prudent in establishing long positions, hedge funds are a favorable option. In the past, the performance of the stock market and the bond market was the opposite, but in recent years, the convergence of stocks and bonds is increasing. Using stocks and bonds as diversification tools may not work so well, which makes the role of hedge funds as portfolio diversification tools even more important.</p><p>(2) Select some defensive stocks. For example, consumer industries, industries with long-term potential, and industries related to the growth of emerging markets.</p><p>(3) Option strategy. You can take profits from stocks that have already performed well and have limited upside, and use options or structured investment to guard against downside risks.</p><p>Of course, some investors think that they can wait for the risks to disappear, but UBS believes that waiting for the risks to subside may be a time-consuming and costly strategy in the process of rising inflation.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115229315","content_text":"第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。\n\n2021年最主要的故事是“复苏”。\n这是瑞银对于即将过半的2021年投资关键词总结。\n根据瑞银统计，2021年上半年，美股上涨最好的是周期股和价值股，标普500的能源板块大涨47%，金融板块上涨了26%，而大盘的科技股仅上涨了9%。\n近日，瑞银发布了2021年下半年投资展望。瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监及宏观经济主管胡一帆博士详细解读了2021年影响投资的各种因素。在这场讨论会中，瑞银总结了几个投资者最关心的问题，以下为瑞银的主要观点：\n\n1、A股上半年表现落后，下半年更有吸引力\n2021年以来全球部分市场表现得不错，下半年还有望进一步提高，主要驱动因素是强劲的盈利增长。瑞银预测，2021年全球整体企业盈利平均会有30%的反弹，美国在平均水平，约为30%，英国约为50%，欧洲大陆为40%，日本也会有20%以上的反弹。\n同时，在2021年上半年，股市相比债市更有吸引力，因为利率在不断上行过程中对债市造成了一定压力，下半年股市表现还是会继续好于债市。\n最后，各国央行还是会坚持比较宽松的立场，虽然美国通胀大幅上升，美联储退出宽松政策可能会早于预期，但是2021年仍将保持相当宽松的态势。\n那么，下半年增长的机会在哪里呢？瑞银建议：第一关注亚洲蕴藏的机会，特别是中国和日本；第二为经济重启和复苏主题，能源、材料、金融、美国中小盘股已经在上涨，下半年能源板块还会延续涨势。瑞银当前对年底油价的预期是78美元，但可能还会继续上调。\n相较于全球其它地区股市，亚洲股市的估值有30%的折让，而亚洲的经济重启和强劲的盈利表现将支持下半年股市的表现。从多元化的角度来讲，新兴国家和地区，特别是亚洲的股票可以在投资组合中发挥作用。\n中国股市从年初到现在涨幅落后于全球。在这段时间，全球股市平均上涨超过10%，但中国只有2.5%的涨幅，港股MSCI指数也只有3%左右上涨。但中国经济在2021年表现其实相当强劲，一季度GDP上涨了18.3%，二季度瑞银预测在7.5%-8%之间。2021年下半年，增长可能会有所放缓，最主要原因是基数变高，瑞银预测中国GDP下半年大约上涨5.5%左右。\n在这样的经济增长背景下，2021年和2022年中国企业的平均盈利水平都能实现双位数的增长，但是中国股市的平均市盈增长比率（PEG）小于1.0，所以中国股市比较有吸引力。2021年上半年A股最主要的压力来自于政策，特别对于反垄断的监管，但下半年A股有更多的机会。\n2、科技股下一波黄金机遇：金融、健康、绿色\n科技股在2020年表现十分亮眼，但上半年只增长了9%，远逊于能源和银行业，今年科技股进一步上升的催化剂不太多，但中长期瑞银还是非常地看好科技股的。\n在长期投资组合构想当中，瑞银认为，不仅要投资大盘的科技股，也要放眼更多元化的科技投资，如欧洲的数字领军者、高增长行业中的中小盘，以及数字订阅等。同时，可持续投资也一直是瑞银非常看好的方向，在瑞银的组合中越来越受到投资者的青睐。\n经过过去十年来的表现之后，瑞银认为欧洲的数字领军者会处于领先地位，从第四波的工业革命当中受益。下一个黄金的机遇将会出现金融科技、健康科技、绿色科技的领域，并且因受益于5G的推广而实现、而加速。\n可持续投资中，表现非常出色的是在碳强度较低的投资组合当中，所以投资者要主动选股，更加可持续投资当中选择更多元化的策略；在绿色科技投资的机会中，要挑选在供应链上的股票，瑞银现在最为看好的是亚洲的全球智能出行、精选的汽车商、技术前景向好的供应商，还有具有创新潜力的先进企业。同时瑞银看好绿色科技，地球的未来，以及碳排放交易。\n3、防通胀投资构想：基建是全球主题\n在美国“通胀”已经成为谷歌关键词的搜索趋势。这一波的通胀最主要根本的原因在于经济恢复非常的强劲并且快速，所以在短期内造成很大的供给之间的缺口。瑞银的预测，二季度美国通胀见顶，三季度保持在高位，四季度开始慢慢下行，总体而言，通胀是一个比较短暂的因素，但是如果通胀当中有一些结构性的因素，比如劳动力市场的供给相对不足，可能会导致一些工资上升；或者如果美国人都把钱拿出来消费，也会推高通胀，当前储蓄率高达15%；企业也有可能转嫁成本，如果是这样，一部分的短暂因素可能会变为长期的因素，因此也要做好防范。\n瑞银对美国整体通胀预测是3.7%，但是由于2021年的高基数，2022年可能有一个快速的回落，但是通胀不太可能长时间超过3%，瑞银认为美联储会提出新的平均目标框架。\n在防范通胀的过程当中，可能需要几大投资的构想：有较强定价能力公司的股票就会比较有吸引力；价格合理的优质成长股、短久期的债券、私募市场的基建，还有大宗商品，都是瑞银比较关注的方向。\n现在全球的基建缺口不断地增大，政府投资也是不断地增强，比如说美国推出了“2.3万亿的基建计划”，但是光靠政府是不足以达到需求的，所以这为私人投资者提供了机会。在这方面，瑞银青睐于工业、物流、数据中心等相关资产的投资。\n大宗商品的价格会和通胀亦步亦趋，当前大宗商品价格上涨的空间不如上半年那么快速，但是还是会有一些继续上涨的空间，特别是当美国的CPI超过2%，而且还继续上行的时候，能源行业往往表现比较出色。\n4、提高投资组合回报：中国房企债收益高\n虽然通胀上升，但从中长期来看，利率还是会保持在一个比较低的水平，特别对于美联储来讲，2023年前基础利率还是会保持0-0.25的区间当中。此时，投资组合收益，特别对于偏好防御型债券类投资的投资者来讲，如何提高投资组合收益变得更为重要。\n瑞银的策略是，投资一些抵御通胀的派息股、高收益信用债和优先级贷款，并且可以有一些“另类收益”来提高投资收益。\n2021年以来，高收益债和美国十年期国债的相关性比较小。亚洲高收益债的收益率现在高达7%，还是具有吸引力，特别是一些比较稳健的中国房企的债券比较有吸引力，虽然房地产市场总体有收紧趋势，对于股票的承压比较重，但是对于债券还是比较的看好。\n派息股来讲，一些企业年派息高达3%以上，远远好于同类债券，瑞银特别看好派息高达3%的大蓝筹股。\n优先级贷款，往往有抵押，而且是浮动的利率，这意味着一旦美联储开始加息，这些优先级贷款利率也会走高，这也是瑞银比较看好的方向。\n因此可以通过配置这些资产，提高投资组合的收益。\n5、防范下行风险，对冲基金最有效\n瑞银认为，2021年下半年需要关注的潜在下行风险主要有：(1)通胀持续攀升，(2)增长不如预期，目前市场对下半年很有信心，但也存在增长不如预期的潜在风险，虽然这是个小概率事件，但也不排除疫情卷土重来、中美局势升温、美联储缩减恐慌等因素。\n因此，瑞银认为可以采取以下措施管理下行风险：\n(1)投资对冲基金，这是最有效的方式。对冲基金在市场波动的时候表现会比较好。特别对于有审慎建立多头头寸的投资者来讲，对冲基金是比较有利的选项。以前股市和债市的表现是相反的，但最近几年，股票和债券的趋同性越来越大，用股票和债券作为分散化的工具，可能效果并没有那么好，这使得对冲基金作为投资组合多元化工具的角色更加重要。\n(2)精选一些防御型股票。比如说消费行业、长期有潜力的行业、与新兴市场增长相关的行业。\n(3)期权策略。可以获利了结那些已经表现优异并且上行空间有限的股票，用期权或者结构性投资来防范下行的风险。\n当然，有一些投资者认为可以等风险消失，但是瑞银认为在通胀上行的过程当中，等待风险消退可能是费时长久而且代价昂贵的策略。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}