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  ·2021-06-24
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  CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term
  这次疫情至少是自第二次世界大战以来对全球经济、人类社会最大的一次冲击。
  CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term
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Yu Xuejun, leader of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, attended and delivered a speech.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the global economy is in a sensitive period of evolution and change, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term.</p><p>He explained that, first of all, the complexity and sensitivity faced by the global economy this year were formed by the outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic around the world last year. \"This impact is too great\". He cited the UN report as saying it was \"the worst contraction of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the contraction was 2.5 times that of the 2009 international financial crisis\". He added,</p><p>\"As far as we can remember, this epidemic is at least the biggest shock to the global economy and human society since World War II.\" Last year, the global economy declined by 4.4% overall. Because of China's good epidemic control, epidemic prevention and economic work, the resumption of work and production was effective and effective, and it became the only country among the top ten economies in the world to achieve positive growth, with an annual economic growth of 2.3%. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"This (growth) of 2.3% is very famous now. When we watch TV and newspapers, including some foreign scholars, they often mention 2.3%.\" Secondly, due to the rare impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, governments of various countries have generally implemented ultra-loose stimulating economic policies. Historically, these policies are unprecedented and have played an important role in stabilizing the economy and maintaining social order in various countries. However, at the same time, these ultra-loose policies have also brought many problems.</p><p>Third, the changes and impacts of global geopolitics.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the key link to control the epidemic lies in the research and development and vaccination of vaccines. All countries hope to do it in one battle. Now it seems that the progress is fast, far exceeding people's previous expectations. How it changes in the future depends on two factors. One is that the effectiveness of the vaccine, including the expiration date, remains to be tested by time.</p><p>The second is the speed and complexity of the COVID-19 virus mutation. \"In the past, we used to say a phrase in banking supervision, which was called 'supervision is a race against risk'. Today, we borrow this phrase. We think that fighting the COVID-19 epidemic is actually a race against the mutation of the COVID-19 virus.\" He said that on the whole, the situation of human fighting the COVID-19 epidemic has become bright. Now it generally seems to be dominated by optimism, and I believe that the negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken.</p><p>Talking about where the ultra-loose stimulus policy goes from here, Yu Xuejun analyzed the situation in the United States.</p><p>After COVID-19 spread widely in the United States during the Trump administration last year, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Reserve rate from 1.5%-1.75% to 0% to 0.25% in one go in mid-March, the so-called \"zero rate\". At the end of the year, the Federal Reserve increased its QE policy, increasing its bond purchase scale to 120 billion USD every month from December.</p><p>After President Biden took office, he has further increased fiscal stimulus policies, the most representative of which is the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout bill passed in April this year. In addition, he also put forward a revival plan for infrastructure investment. It was initially drawn up at a scale of 2.25 trillion dollars, which has recently been compressed to an estimated $1 trillion.</p><p>Since last year, the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy has significantly increased its balance sheet, which has soared from about $4 trillion at the beginning to $7.5 trillion at the end of the year, and the latest reached about $8 trillion. This has inflated the global dollar liquidity and caused the price of commodities to rise sharply, including the rare increase in food prices, resulting in global concerns about inflation.</p><p>Yu Xuejun believes that with the improvement of the anti-epidemic situation in the United States, the U.S. economy has rebounded strongly under the accumulated effect of ultra-loose monetary stimulus policies. According to the latest OECD medium-term economic outlook forecast, the U.S. economy will grow by 6.9% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.</p><p>In response to these new changes, the Federal Reserve has begun to release hawkish signals at the latest interest rate meeting in June, and the market expects the rate hike of the Federal Reserve to be advanced by one year to the second half of 2022. In addition, inflation expectations have also been sharply raised. It is expected that the PCE and personal consumption expenditure price index of the United States will rise to 3.4% in 2021, an increase of 1 percentage point from the forecast in March. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"We are in such a window period when macro-control policies may be adjusted and changed at any time, so the market performance is extremely sensitive. A message or a wording of the Federal Reserve may cause huge fluctuations in the market. Now, grain, iron ore, oil, gold and exchange rates rise and fall almost every day, with different changes and no consistent direction. They are in such a sensitive period.\" Why is it difficult to return to short-term normality? He gives two reasons:</p><p>First, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is too great, and the epidemic control is still unpredictable. In addition, it will take time to assess the significant impact of the pandemic on human society after it is controlled, especially the impact on economic activities.</p><p>Second, the ultra-loose stimulus policies of various countries have had a significant impact. The withdrawal of these policies takes a long process, and it is difficult to recover. In particular, the base money put out by the Federal Reserve is difficult to recover in the short term, and it may become a period of history and be preserved forever.</p><p>\"After the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing. Before this, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve was less than 900 billion dollars, which later increased to a maximum of 4.5 trillion dollars, and now it has increased to 8 trillion dollars. Calculated in this way,<b>The final Fed balance sheet is expected to be more than 10 times higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis</b>These large amounts of US dollar liquidity are invested all over the world, which has a huge impact on the global economic and financial markets, especially the next impact on inflation. I think it is difficult to eliminate and accurately assess in the short term. \"</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 19:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Caixin Summer Summit was held in Beijing on June 23-25, 2021. Yu Xuejun, leader of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, attended and delivered a speech.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the global economy is in a sensitive period of evolution and change, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term.</p><p>He explained that, first of all, the complexity and sensitivity faced by the global economy this year were formed by the outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic around the world last year. \"This impact is too great\". He cited the UN report as saying it was \"the worst contraction of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the contraction was 2.5 times that of the 2009 international financial crisis\". He added,</p><p>\"As far as we can remember, this epidemic is at least the biggest shock to the global economy and human society since World War II.\" Last year, the global economy declined by 4.4% overall. Because of China's good epidemic control, epidemic prevention and economic work, the resumption of work and production was effective and effective, and it became the only country among the top ten economies in the world to achieve positive growth, with an annual economic growth of 2.3%. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"This (growth) of 2.3% is very famous now. When we watch TV and newspapers, including some foreign scholars, they often mention 2.3%.\" Secondly, due to the rare impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, governments of various countries have generally implemented ultra-loose stimulating economic policies. Historically, these policies are unprecedented and have played an important role in stabilizing the economy and maintaining social order in various countries. However, at the same time, these ultra-loose policies have also brought many problems.</p><p>Third, the changes and impacts of global geopolitics.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the key link to control the epidemic lies in the research and development and vaccination of vaccines. All countries hope to do it in one battle. Now it seems that the progress is fast, far exceeding people's previous expectations. How it changes in the future depends on two factors. One is that the effectiveness of the vaccine, including the expiration date, remains to be tested by time.</p><p>The second is the speed and complexity of the COVID-19 virus mutation. \"In the past, we used to say a phrase in banking supervision, which was called 'supervision is a race against risk'. Today, we borrow this phrase. We think that fighting the COVID-19 epidemic is actually a race against the mutation of the COVID-19 virus.\" He said that on the whole, the situation of human fighting the COVID-19 epidemic has become bright. Now it generally seems to be dominated by optimism, and I believe that the negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken.</p><p>Talking about where the ultra-loose stimulus policy goes from here, Yu Xuejun analyzed the situation in the United States.</p><p>After COVID-19 spread widely in the United States during the Trump administration last year, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Reserve rate from 1.5%-1.75% to 0% to 0.25% in one go in mid-March, the so-called \"zero rate\". At the end of the year, the Federal Reserve increased its QE policy, increasing its bond purchase scale to 120 billion USD every month from December.</p><p>After President Biden took office, he has further increased fiscal stimulus policies, the most representative of which is the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout bill passed in April this year. In addition, he also put forward a revival plan for infrastructure investment. It was initially drawn up at a scale of 2.25 trillion dollars, which has recently been compressed to an estimated $1 trillion.</p><p>Since last year, the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy has significantly increased its balance sheet, which has soared from about $4 trillion at the beginning to $7.5 trillion at the end of the year, and the latest reached about $8 trillion. This has inflated the global dollar liquidity and caused the price of commodities to rise sharply, including the rare increase in food prices, resulting in global concerns about inflation.</p><p>Yu Xuejun believes that with the improvement of the anti-epidemic situation in the United States, the U.S. economy has rebounded strongly under the accumulated effect of ultra-loose monetary stimulus policies. According to the latest OECD medium-term economic outlook forecast, the U.S. economy will grow by 6.9% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.</p><p>In response to these new changes, the Federal Reserve has begun to release hawkish signals at the latest interest rate meeting in June, and the market expects the rate hike of the Federal Reserve to be advanced by one year to the second half of 2022. In addition, inflation expectations have also been sharply raised. It is expected that the PCE and personal consumption expenditure price index of the United States will rise to 3.4% in 2021, an increase of 1 percentage point from the forecast in March. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"We are in such a window period when macro-control policies may be adjusted and changed at any time, so the market performance is extremely sensitive. A message or a wording of the Federal Reserve may cause huge fluctuations in the market. Now, grain, iron ore, oil, gold and exchange rates rise and fall almost every day, with different changes and no consistent direction. They are in such a sensitive period.\" Why is it difficult to return to short-term normality? He gives two reasons:</p><p>First, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is too great, and the epidemic control is still unpredictable. In addition, it will take time to assess the significant impact of the pandemic on human society after it is controlled, especially the impact on economic activities.</p><p>Second, the ultra-loose stimulus policies of various countries have had a significant impact. The withdrawal of these policies takes a long process, and it is difficult to recover. In particular, the base money put out by the Federal Reserve is difficult to recover in the short term, and it may become a period of history and be preserved forever.</p><p>\"After the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing. Before this, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve was less than 900 billion dollars, which later increased to a maximum of 4.5 trillion dollars, and now it has increased to 8 trillion dollars. Calculated in this way,<b>The final Fed balance sheet is expected to be more than 10 times higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis</b>These large amounts of US dollar liquidity are invested all over the world, which has a huge impact on the global economic and financial markets, especially the next impact on inflation. I think it is difficult to eliminate and accurately assess in the short term. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.cn/hy/2021-06-24/detail-ikqciyzk1510511.d.html?from=wap\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0777ffe79222b2a04c15407e205bed9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.cn/hy/2021-06-24/detail-ikqciyzk1510511.d.html?from=wap","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144044065","content_text":"2021财新夏季峰会于2021年6月23-25日在北京举办，中国银行保险监督管理委员会领导于学军出席并演讲。\n于学军表示，全球经济正处于演进变化的敏感时期，短期内难以回归常态。\n他解释称，首先，今年全球经济面临的复杂性和敏感性是受去年新冠肺炎疫情在全球的暴发、蔓延而形成的，“这个冲击太大了”。他引用联合国报告称这“是自上世纪30年代经济大萧条以来，全球经济最严重的收缩，收缩的程度是2009年国际金融危机的2.5倍”。他又说道，\n\n “从我们的记忆来说，这次疫情至少是自第二次世界大战以来对全球经济、人类社会最大的一次冲击。”\n\n去年全球经济总体下降4.4%，由于中国疫情控制得好，并且防疫和经济工作两手抓，复工复产有力有效，成为了全球前十大经济体中唯一实现正增长的国家，全年经济增长2.3%。于学军说，\n\n “这个（增长）2.3%，现在非常有名，我们看电视、报纸，包括国外的一些学者，他们也经常提起来2.3%。”\n\n第二，由于新冠疫情对全球经济形成的罕见冲击，所以各国政府普遍实行了超宽松的刺激性经济政策，历史比较来看，这些政策力度是空前的，在各国稳定经济和维护社会秩序等方面均发挥了重要作用，但与此同时这些超宽松的政策也带来许多问题。\n第三，全球地缘政治的变化和影响。\n于学军表示，控制疫情的关键环节在于疫苗的研发和接种，各国都希望可以毕其功于一役，现在看进展很快，远超出人们之前的预期。未来如何变化取决于两个因素，一是疫苗的有效性，包括有效期，尚有待时间检验。\n二是新冠病毒变异的速度和复杂性。“过去我们做银行监管常说的一句话，叫做‘监管就是与风险赛跑’，今天我们把这句话借用过来，我们认为抗击新冠疫情实际上也是与新冠病毒的变异赛跑”，他说，总体来看人类抗击新冠疫情的形势已现光明，现在普遍看起来是乐观情绪主导，相信对经济的负面影响也会逐步减弱。\n谈及超宽松的刺激性政策何去何从，于学军分析了美国的情况。\n去年在特朗普执政时期，新冠肺炎在美国大面积传染之后，美联储在3月中旬一次性将联邦储备利率由1.5%-1.75%调低为0%到0.25%，即所谓的“零利率”。年末美联储又加大QE政策，从12月起将其购债规模每月增加到1200亿美元。\n拜登总统上任之后，进一步加大财政的刺激性政策，最具代表性的就是于今年4月通过的1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案。另外，他还提出基建投资的复兴计划。开始拟定的是2.25万亿规模，最近有所压缩，预计约1万亿美元。\n去年开始美联储实行超宽松的货币政策，使其资产负债表大幅增加，已从初期的约4万亿美元陡增至年末的7.5万亿美元，最新大概达到8万亿美元。这使全球的美元流动性不断膨胀，并造成大宗初级商品的价格大幅上涨，包括粮食也出现罕见的涨价现象，全球对通胀的担忧由此产生。\n于学军认为，随着美国抗疫形势出现好转，在货币超宽松刺激政策累加的作用之下，美国经济出现强势反弹，最新据经合组织OECD中期经济展望预测，今年美国经济将增长6.9%，比之前的预测调高了0.4个百分点。\n针对这些新变化，美联储在6月最新的议息会议上已开始释放鹰派信号，市场预计美联储加息或提前一年至2022年下半年。另外通货膨胀预期也被大幅上调，预计2021年美国的PCE及个人消费支出价格指数将升到3.4%，较3月的预测值上调1个百分点。于学军称，\n\n “我们处于这样一个宏观调控政策有可能随时发生调整变化的窗口期，所以市场表现极为敏感，一个信息、美联储的一句措词都有可能引起市场的巨大波动。现在粮食、铁矿石、石油、黄金、汇率几乎每天都出现上涨、下跌，有不同的变化，没有一致的方向，处在这样的一个敏感期。”\n\n为什么短期常态难回归呢？他给出两个原因：\n一是新冠疫情的冲击太大，现在疫情控制仍然难以预料。另外，疫情控制之后其对人类社会产生的重大影响，尤其是对经济活动的影响，也需要一个时间进行评估。\n二是各国超宽松的刺激性政策形成了重大影响，这些政策的退出需要一个较长的过程，并且覆水难收，尤其是美联储投放出去的基础货币很难在短期收回，也许会成为一段历史永远保留下去。\n\n “2008年美国发生金融危机之后，美联储就实行了量化宽松的货币政策，这个之前美联储的资产负债表不到9000亿美元，后来最高增加到了4.5万亿美元，现在又增加到8万亿美元。这样计算下来，\n 预计最终美联储的资产负债表将比2008年金融危机之前提高10倍以上，这些大量的美元流动性投入到世界各地，对全球经济金融市场形成巨大影响，尤其是下一步对通货膨胀的影响，我认为短期内难以消除，也难以准确评估。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}