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tay931888

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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-03-04
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-03-01
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  Change | Nasdaq turns up! New energy vehicle stocks show their power, ideally rising by more than 10%
  2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。
  Change | Nasdaq turns up! New energy vehicle stocks show their power, ideally rising by more than 10%
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-28
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-26
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-24
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-24
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  It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
  摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与
  It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-23
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-22
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-21
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  Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?
  近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经
  Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?
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- tay931888tay931888
  ·2022-02-21
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23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change | Nasdaq turns up! New energy vehicle stocks show their power, ideally rising by more than 10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122487527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28, the Nasdaq turned higher after falling nearly 1% before. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>U.S. new energy vehicle concept stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change | Nasdaq turns up! New energy vehicle stocks show their power, ideally rising by more than 10%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange | Nasdaq turns up! New energy vehicle stocks show their power, ideally rising by more than 10%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-28 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28, the Nasdaq turned higher after falling nearly 1% before. So far, the Dow is down 0.95% and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>U.S. new energy vehicle concept stocks continue to rise,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars rose more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Up more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LI":"理想汽车","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","03086":"华夏纳指","BK1587":"次新股","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK1575":"同股不同权"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122487527","content_text":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161028":0.9,"399417":0.9,"02015":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"LI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039870444,"gmtCreate":1646009466093,"gmtModify":1676534081559,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039870444","repostId":"2214132600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030728546,"gmtCreate":1645830673015,"gmtModify":1676534067379,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030728546","repostId":"1150139995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030692015,"gmtCreate":1645702048673,"gmtModify":1676534055101,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030692015","repostId":"1153372780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030324389,"gmtCreate":1645652220963,"gmtModify":1676534048140,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's about the global economy! 4 Impacts of the Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on US stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. Event: On February 21st, local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republic of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. The global stock market plummeted, and crude oil and gold soared.</p><p>Core conclusions:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased.</p><p>2. Taking history as a mirror, the performance law of major assets after geopolitical conflicts: in the short term, it will be negative for risk assets, and good for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, and the impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>To the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major exporter of energy and raw materials in the world, it is necessary to be alert to the derivative risks of rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For asset prices: Referring to the above experience, if only this conflict is considered, there will still be downward pressure in the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will trend downward, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after one month, the asset price trend will return to the dominance of fundamentals; The prices of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages. For global inflation: pushing up the oil price to a high level in the short term, increasing the global inflationary pressure, among which: 1) the inflation in the United States is still high in the short term, and the inflection point of the decline will also be delayed; 2) For China, according to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that the annual CPI will still be low before and then high, and it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI even if the oil price rises; 3) In view of the fact that the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI, it will disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap in China, and also disturb the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profits. On the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will aggravate the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increase the downward pressure on US stocks, thus restricting the pace of the Fed's rate hike. In fact, the Fed's rate hike expectations have begun to cool since mid-February. Maintain the previous judgment: in 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, and the possibility of evolving into war has greatly increased. The Russia-Ukraine issue has a long history, among which the core differences lie in \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO\". In mid-January 2022, Russia successively held talks with the United States, NATO and OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but no significant results were achieved. After a month-long game, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping troops\" to enter the region, which greatly increased the possibility that the conflict between the two sides would turn into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned it was prepared to impose more if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Taking history as a mirror, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: short-term negative risk assets, favorable hedging and resource products, and weak medium and long-term impact</p><p>For better comparison, we select \"five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers\" since 2000 as the analysis object, including the 2001 Afghanistan War, 2003 Iraq War, 2011 Libya War & Syria War, and 2014 Crimea Referendum. During the outbreak of conflicts, the performance of various asset prices is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: U.S. stocks generally fell in the short term, with a decline range of basically 10-30 days, and then started to rise again; A shares mostly rise in the short term, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term. The deviation between A shares and US stocks is, on the one hand, because these rounds of geopolitical conflicts have not involved China; on the other hand, the correlation between A shares and US stocks is low before 2015;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield of 10Y U.S. bonds generally declined in the short term, and the downward range was also 10-30 days, and then continued to decline after a short rebound; The yield of 10Y Chinese bonds also mostly declined in the short term, and the medium and long-term trend was volatile;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index has continued to fall three times, continued to rise one time and fluctuated one time;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold continued to fall twice, rise twice, and then rise once;</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices generally rise in the short term, and the rising range is also 10-30 days, and there is no consistent law in the medium and long term trend;</p><p>Copper: Copper prices mostly fall in the short term, and the decline range is also 10-30 days. There is no consistent law in the medium and long-term trend.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of rules: In summary, it can be seen that geopolitical conflicts will be negative for risk assets, safe-haven assets and energy products in the short term, and their impact is often concentrated in 10-30 days after the conflict breaks out, which has a weak impact on the medium-and long-term trend of asset prices.</p><p>3. Four-point deduction of the impact of this Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the rhythm of the Federal Reserve's rate hike</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will probably face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total import and export goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion, respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and it is expected to have limited direct impact on the global economy and trade. However, considering that Russia is the world's leading exporter of energy and raw materials, we should be alert to the risks derived from rising commodity prices caused by sanctions against Russia. For example, in 2020, Russia's natural gas exports were about 199.9 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports, of which about 80% were exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of European natural gas imports. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues to be tense and the United States and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further aggravate the natural gas shortage pattern in Europe, thus dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Combined with the above analysis, if the fire in Wudong on February 17th is taken as the starting point of the conflict, there will still be downward pressure on the global stock market in the next month, the yield of Treasury Bond will still decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further; But after a month, asset price movement will return to fundamental dominance. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of steel, corn, wheat, barley, fertilizer and other commodities in the world (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to intensify, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply blockages.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices at a high level in the short term, increasing global inflationary pressure, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of China's PPI</p><p>U.S. inflation: still high in the short term, and the inflection point of retreat will also be delayed. In previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is greatly affected by energy prices. According to a rough estimate, if the average oil price in the next 1-3 months is assumed to be USD 105/barrel, the CPI of the United States from February to March will further rise to about 8% year-on-year; If the oil price can't fall quickly, the inflection point of inflation in the United States may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to the calculation, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive CPI and PPI up by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Throughout the year, CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the upward trend of oil prices is expected to be difficult to change the downward trend of PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: The oil price mainly affects the two sub-items of CPI: residential hydropower fuel and transportation fuel. If the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Combined with the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to USD 92.7/barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Considering the price changes of base, food and non-food items, it is expected that the CPI in February may rise slightly year-on-year. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low before and then high, and the annual center may be higher than 2.0% under the benchmark scenario.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil price mainly affects PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing and other sub-items. According to the model, if the oil price rises by 10%, it will drive PPI oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry and chemical fiber up by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0 and 2.2 percentage points respectively. Considering that the above sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5% and 0.8% of PPI respectively, it can be converted that if the oil price rises by 10% year-on-year, it may drive PPI up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices in February are expected to drive PPI up by about 1.9 percentage points; Considering the price changes of the base and other industrial products, PPI in February may still drop slightly year-on-year. Throughout the year, as the PPI base is rising month by month, it is difficult to change the downward trend of PPI with a high probability of oil price rise.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor gap & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of enterprise profit. Based on the previous calculation, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is obviously greater than that of CPI; Therefore, the rising oil price may disturb the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissor difference and the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of profit. Specifically, the upstream profit may still be at a high level in the short term, and the uncertainty of the improvement of the middle and downstream profit will increase. From the industrial perspective, the profits of oil and gas exploration, fuel processing, chemical industry, chemical fiber and other industries are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of rubber and plastic industries are negatively correlated with oil prices. If the oil price continues to be at a high level, there may be support for the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction, and the suppression on the rubber and plastic industry may persist. (For details, please refer to the previous report \"2022 Earnings Will be Transmitted Upstream and Downstream — Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissor Gap\")<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the rhythm of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflection point of inflation, but the current Fed's rate hike expectation has fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated the uncertainty of the global economic outlook and increased the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, which will restrict the pace of the Fed's rate hike. On the whole, the interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, the market expects the number of interest rate hikes in March to drop from 1.7 to 1.2, and the number of interest rate hikes in the whole year to drop from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that the rate hike expectation has begun to cool down. Maintaining our previous judgment: In 2022, the Federal Reserve will be hawk first and pigeon later, and it is expected to raise interest rates 3-4 times throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has evolved beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","USO":"美国原油ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","UNG":"美国天然气基金","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DJX":"1/100道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"UCO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"DWT":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"NGmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"USO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"QMmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097752910,"gmtCreate":1645573006770,"gmtModify":1676534040192,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.fi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😌😌😌","listText":"Good 😌😌😌","text":"Good 😌😌😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097555789","repostId":"2213860349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will U.S. stocks perform in the tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, the expectation of radical rate hike has surged, and Wall Street analysts are thinking about a question: How will US stocks react in this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>In the latest report, it is pointed out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has been returning positively in the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>But this has almost exclusively occurred in phases where economic growth has accelerated, with returns flattening or falling since 1950 when the economic recovery has slowed.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the upcoming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk,<b>The current valuation of the US stock market is on the high side.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 before this first rate hike is more expensive than any other rate hike cycle except for the 1999-2000 period.</p><p>Worse, the actual cost of interest on this debt was negative, whereas in 1999 the cost of equity was negative. During the cycle, Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points and the market moved higher on the rise, but the S&P peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Considering these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures already reflect at least two rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is in the bear camp this time around.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternatives performed worst, cyclical stocks performed best</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that from the perspective of industry sectors, bond substitution stocks performed the worst, and cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond replacement stocks such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have performed worse than the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionary sector has performed better than the S&P 500 index and outperformed other sectors, but it is currently facing risks brought by high labor intensity and wage pressure.</p><p><b>Other sectors that have historically performed well include technology, energy, materials, and consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>But in the rate hike cycle, the industry alpha is more dispersed, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>In the year since the Fed started its rate hike, stock market factors showed good performance with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net worth per share, with low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow leading each cycle, and low net worth per share stocks outperforming the broader market 80% of the time. The sectors with lower prices, as measured by these metrics, are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small Caps Outperform Large Caps</p><p>Bank of America believes that the company's outstanding equity can also be a good measure of the company's performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically fared better in the months leading up to the start of the rate hike, and slightly weaker after the start of the rate hike.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are cheaper than large-cap stocks right now.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The P/E of small-cap stocks typically rose 5-6% in the first three months of the rate hike and fell 8% during the rally. But the Russell 2000's P/E has fallen 12% since November, the lowest relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>At the same time, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and the 10-year change (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and the change in the Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also noted that faster tightening would not be more detrimental to small businesses, and that there is no correlation between rate hike speed and relative size performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during balance sheet tapering, history suggests stocks> bonds, value stocks> growth stocks, and large cap stocks = small cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BAC":"美国银行","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZFmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.85,"BAC":0.73,"TNmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097158476,"gmtCreate":1645399880633,"gmtModify":1676534023368,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097158476","repostId":"1150820641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}