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- HeytorresHeytorres
  ·2021-06-26
  666
  "Fresh First Stock" Daily Excellent Fresh Break Opening, falling over 18% at the beginning of the session
  截止2021年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜净营收为15.302亿元。
  "Fresh First Stock" Daily Excellent Fresh Break Opening, falling over 18% at the beginning of the session
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- HeytorresHeytorres
  ·2021-06-25
  666
  CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term
  这次疫情至少是自第二次世界大战以来对全球经济、人类社会最大的一次冲击。
  CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term
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Based on the issue price of $13, the fundraising amount of Daily Youxian IPO is about $300 million.</p><p>Xu Zheng, founder and CEO of Daily Fresh, said at the listing ceremony that listing is not the goal and end point of Daily Fresh, but a new starting point for us to fulfill our mission and realize our vision. The digitalization of community retail has come to the eve of the big explosion, and facing the competition in the second half, Daily Youxian will never end to explore the community retail industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a45b68d6410257cdce765e8be0dc67b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Layout the 10 trillion community retail market, the main mode is (A + B) x N</b></p><p>Daily Youxian was established in October 2014. Founders Xu Zheng and Zeng Bin previously worked in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>He has served for more than ten years and served as an executive of Lenovo Joyvio Group. In May 2015, Daily Youxian pioneered the immediate retail business in front warehouse, becoming a mobile e-commerce company focusing on providing consumers with high-quality fresh food, covering all categories such as fruits and vegetables, seafood, meat and poultry, milk snacks, etc. As of March 31, 2021, Daily Youxian had established 631 front-end warehouses in 16 cities in China, with a cumulative number of transaction users exceeding 31 million, and provided services delivered in an average of 39 minutes.</p><p>On June 9th, Daily Fresh officially submitted its prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the most interesting part of which is to detail this year's updated (A + B) x N strategy (<b>A: Instant retail in front warehouse, B: Smart food market, N: Retail cloud</b>), revealing its ambitions in the larger community retail track. Compared with the past, more people's understanding of daily excellent fresh still stays in fresh online shopping. However, on the eve of listing, Daily Excellent Fresh quietly announced its platform model. The transformation of Daily Excellent Fresh from a vertical self-operated company to a platform is actually from a trading company to a road-building company, and it also places itself in a larger market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1b9b7e8f3af7ffa0d9b3758f5340ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The diversified layout of Daily Excellent Fresh breaks the limited definition of \"fresh e-commerce\". In the future, Daily Excellent Fresh will continue to give full play to its own advantages and always pay attention to market trends, give full play to its own advantages and follow the trend.</p><p>According to the prospectus data, in 2018, the net revenue of Daily Youxian was about 3.546.7 billion yuan, which increased to 6.001.4 billion yuan in 2019 and 6.130.4 billion yuan in 2020. Daily Fresh had a net revenue of RMB1,689.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and RMB1,530.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021. GMV grew from RMB4,725.9 million in 2018 to RMB7,614.7 million in 2020, representing a CAGR of 26.9%. The data shows that the average customer unit price of instant retail in the front warehouse of excellent fresh is 94.6 yuan.</p><p>Daily Fresh pioneered the front-end warehouse model in May 2015. At present, it has opened 631 front-end warehouses in 16 first-and second-tier cities across the country, providing consumers with over 4,300 extremely fast goods and an average service of 39 minutes. At present, its cumulative transaction users are more than 31 million, and its GMV in 2020 is 7.6 billion yuan. In the second half of 2020, Daily Fresh launched the smart food market business, which plans to promote the standardization of the food market and upgrade to a small-scale fresh food community shopping mall. As of May 31, 2021, it had entered into operating agreements with 54 food outlets in 14 cities and commenced operations in 33 food outlets in 10 cities.</p><p>In addition, the prospectus data shows that the average customer unit price of 94.6 yuan per day is the highest in the industry, the performance expense ratio continues to drop from 34.9% in 2018 to 25.7% in 2020, and the performance profit margin (gross profit margin minus performance expense ratio) is higher than the industry average.</p><p><b>Community retail digitalization has come to the eve of the big explosion</b></p><p>In terms of users, from 2018 to 2020, the number of daily effective users of Youxian was 5.1 million, 7.2 million and 8.7 million respectively, and the average consumption of effective users was 558.0 yuan, 690.4 yuan and 712.8 yuan respectively. Given that Daily Fresh defines effective users as \"transaction users whose product payment after deducting discounts and coupons is greater than the cost of related products sold\", it thus has a group of positive profit-contributing users whose number and transaction volume are increasing year by year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67526d2a1198afcce6a244be378ea5f\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the average daily customer unit price of excellent fresh is 94.6 yuan, which is higher than that of other front-end warehouse enterprises in the industry. Its core users (users who have placed orders four times or more in at least one month in a certain year) accounted for 21.1% in 2020 from 14.9% in 2018. As of March 31, 2021, the annual consumption of core users reached 2,106 yuan.</p><p>Xu Zheng mentioned in his speech, \"Although today is an important moment in the seven years since Youxian started its business, as an enterprise with the goal of creating value continuously, frantically and for a long time, I hope that every Youxian person can maintain the entrepreneurial mentality of Always Day One.\"</p><p>He said that as an enterprise with the goal of pursuing long-term value, Daily Youxian will maintain the mentality of always day one and continue to explore in the field of community retail digitalization, so that more families can enjoy high-quality shopping experience and help more merchants achieve efficient management and operation.</p><p>The digitalization of community retail is the largest and fastest growing market in China in the future. According to iResearch data, from 2020 to 2025, the scale of community retail industry is expected to increase from 11.9 trillion to 15.7 trillion, and the online penetration rate of community retail will increase from 20.9% to 45.5%, which means that by 2025, the scale of China's digital community retail industry will reach 7.2 trillion.</p><p>As Xu Zheng said, listing is a new starting point. The digitalization of community retail has come to the eve of the big outbreak. In the second half of the competition, community retail platforms are facing not only business disputes, but also capital disputes.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Fresh First Stock\" Daily Excellent Fresh Break Opening, falling over 18% at the beginning of the session</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Fresh First Stock\" Daily Excellent Fresh Break Opening, falling over 18% at the beginning of the session\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-26 01:11</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 25th, \"the first share of fresh e-commerce\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>Officially listed in the U.S. stock market, the company's IPO was priced at $13, and it opened at $10.65 today, with a decline of more than 18% at the beginning of the session, and a total market value of more than $2.5 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a26741e6bf10a3c331c1b43354d5e31c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Daily Youxian issued a total of 21 million shares (including 24.15 million shares of green shoes) of American Depositary Shares (ADS) in this IPO. Based on the issue price of $13, the fundraising amount of Daily Youxian IPO is about $300 million.</p><p>Xu Zheng, founder and CEO of Daily Fresh, said at the listing ceremony that listing is not the goal and end point of Daily Fresh, but a new starting point for us to fulfill our mission and realize our vision. The digitalization of community retail has come to the eve of the big explosion, and facing the competition in the second half, Daily Youxian will never end to explore the community retail industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a45b68d6410257cdce765e8be0dc67b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Layout the 10 trillion community retail market, the main mode is (A + B) x N</b></p><p>Daily Youxian was established in October 2014. Founders Xu Zheng and Zeng Bin previously worked in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00992\">Lenovo Group</a>He has served for more than ten years and served as an executive of Lenovo Joyvio Group. In May 2015, Daily Youxian pioneered the immediate retail business in front warehouse, becoming a mobile e-commerce company focusing on providing consumers with high-quality fresh food, covering all categories such as fruits and vegetables, seafood, meat and poultry, milk snacks, etc. As of March 31, 2021, Daily Youxian had established 631 front-end warehouses in 16 cities in China, with a cumulative number of transaction users exceeding 31 million, and provided services delivered in an average of 39 minutes.</p><p>On June 9th, Daily Fresh officially submitted its prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the most interesting part of which is to detail this year's updated (A + B) x N strategy (<b>A: Instant retail in front warehouse, B: Smart food market, N: Retail cloud</b>), revealing its ambitions in the larger community retail track. Compared with the past, more people's understanding of daily excellent fresh still stays in fresh online shopping. However, on the eve of listing, Daily Excellent Fresh quietly announced its platform model. The transformation of Daily Excellent Fresh from a vertical self-operated company to a platform is actually from a trading company to a road-building company, and it also places itself in a larger market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1b9b7e8f3af7ffa0d9b3758f5340ef\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The diversified layout of Daily Excellent Fresh breaks the limited definition of \"fresh e-commerce\". In the future, Daily Excellent Fresh will continue to give full play to its own advantages and always pay attention to market trends, give full play to its own advantages and follow the trend.</p><p>According to the prospectus data, in 2018, the net revenue of Daily Youxian was about 3.546.7 billion yuan, which increased to 6.001.4 billion yuan in 2019 and 6.130.4 billion yuan in 2020. Daily Fresh had a net revenue of RMB1,689.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and RMB1,530.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021. GMV grew from RMB4,725.9 million in 2018 to RMB7,614.7 million in 2020, representing a CAGR of 26.9%. The data shows that the average customer unit price of instant retail in the front warehouse of excellent fresh is 94.6 yuan.</p><p>Daily Fresh pioneered the front-end warehouse model in May 2015. At present, it has opened 631 front-end warehouses in 16 first-and second-tier cities across the country, providing consumers with over 4,300 extremely fast goods and an average service of 39 minutes. At present, its cumulative transaction users are more than 31 million, and its GMV in 2020 is 7.6 billion yuan. In the second half of 2020, Daily Fresh launched the smart food market business, which plans to promote the standardization of the food market and upgrade to a small-scale fresh food community shopping mall. As of May 31, 2021, it had entered into operating agreements with 54 food outlets in 14 cities and commenced operations in 33 food outlets in 10 cities.</p><p>In addition, the prospectus data shows that the average customer unit price of 94.6 yuan per day is the highest in the industry, the performance expense ratio continues to drop from 34.9% in 2018 to 25.7% in 2020, and the performance profit margin (gross profit margin minus performance expense ratio) is higher than the industry average.</p><p><b>Community retail digitalization has come to the eve of the big explosion</b></p><p>In terms of users, from 2018 to 2020, the number of daily effective users of Youxian was 5.1 million, 7.2 million and 8.7 million respectively, and the average consumption of effective users was 558.0 yuan, 690.4 yuan and 712.8 yuan respectively. Given that Daily Fresh defines effective users as \"transaction users whose product payment after deducting discounts and coupons is greater than the cost of related products sold\", it thus has a group of positive profit-contributing users whose number and transaction volume are increasing year by year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67526d2a1198afcce6a244be378ea5f\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In addition, the average daily customer unit price of excellent fresh is 94.6 yuan, which is higher than that of other front-end warehouse enterprises in the industry. Its core users (users who have placed orders four times or more in at least one month in a certain year) accounted for 21.1% in 2020 from 14.9% in 2018. As of March 31, 2021, the annual consumption of core users reached 2,106 yuan.</p><p>Xu Zheng mentioned in his speech, \"Although today is an important moment in the seven years since Youxian started its business, as an enterprise with the goal of creating value continuously, frantically and for a long time, I hope that every Youxian person can maintain the entrepreneurial mentality of Always Day One.\"</p><p>He said that as an enterprise with the goal of pursuing long-term value, Daily Youxian will maintain the mentality of always day one and continue to explore in the field of community retail digitalization, so that more families can enjoy high-quality shopping experience and help more merchants achieve efficient management and operation.</p><p>The digitalization of community retail is the largest and fastest growing market in China in the future. According to iResearch data, from 2020 to 2025, the scale of community retail industry is expected to increase from 11.9 trillion to 15.7 trillion, and the online penetration rate of community retail will increase from 20.9% to 45.5%, which means that by 2025, the scale of China's digital community retail industry will reach 7.2 trillion.</p><p>As Xu Zheng said, listing is a new starting point. The digitalization of community retail has come to the eve of the big outbreak. In the second half of the competition, community retail platforms are facing not only business disputes, but also capital disputes.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26dac0b9aef9b62cf45137413315ab61","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179112703","content_text":"6月25日，“生鲜电商第一股”每日优鲜正式登陆美股，公司IPO定价13美元，今日开盘报10.65美元，盘初跌幅超18%，总市值超25亿美元。\n\n每日优鲜在本次IPO中总计发行2100万股（含绿鞋2415万股）美国存托股票（ADS），以13美元发行价计算，每日优鲜IPO募资额约为3亿美元。\n每日优鲜创始人兼CEO徐正在上市仪式上表示，上市并不是每日优鲜的目标和终点，而是我们践行使命、实现愿景的新起点。社区零售数字化已经来到大爆发的前夜，面临着下半场的竞争，每日优鲜将永无止境地在社区零售的行业探索。\n\n布局10万亿的社区零售市场，主要模式为（A+B）x N\n每日优鲜成立于2014年10月，创始人徐正和曾斌此前曾在联想集团供职十余年，并出任联想佳沃集团高管。2015年5月，每日优鲜首创前置仓即时零售业务，成为一家专注于为消费者提供优质生鲜的移动电商，覆盖水果蔬菜、海鲜肉禽、牛奶零食等全品类。截至2021年3月31日，每日优鲜已在中国16个城市建立了631个前置仓，累计交易用户超3100万，并提供平均39分钟达的服务。\n6月9日，每日优鲜正式向美国证券交易委员会递交招股说明书，其中最有意思的部分则是详细展示了今年更新的（A+B）x N 战略（A：前置仓即时零售，B：智慧菜场，N：零售云），透露了其在更大的社区零售赛道中的野心。相比以往，更多人对每日优鲜的理解还停留在生鲜网购。但上市前夕的每日优鲜，悄然了宣告自己的平台化模式，每日优鲜从垂直自营公司到平台化的转型，其实就是从贸易型公司转向筑路型公司，而它也将自己置身于一个更大的市场里。\n\n每日优鲜的多元化布局，打破了其“生鲜电商”的局限定义，在未来每日优鲜会继续发挥自身的优势比并且时刻关注市场动向，发挥自身的优势，顺势而为。\n招股书数据显示，2018年，每日优鲜的净营收约为35.467亿元，2019年增至60.014亿元，2020年达到61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。GMV从2018年的47.259亿元增长到2020年的76.147亿元人民币，复合年增长率为26.9%。数据显示，每日优鲜前置仓即时零售的平均客单价为94.6元。\n每日优鲜于2015年5月首创前置仓模式，目前已在全国16个一二线城市开设631个前置仓，为消费者提供超4300款极速达商品、平均39分钟达的服务。目前其累计交易用户3100多万，2020年GMV76亿元。2020年下半年，每日优鲜推出智慧菜场业务，计划推动菜市场标准化以及向小型生鲜社区商场升级。截至2021年5月31日，其已与14个城市的54家菜场签订运营协议，并在10个城市的33家菜场展开运营。\n另外，招股书数据显示，每日优鲜94.6元的平均客单价为行业最高，履约费用率从2018年的34.9%持续降至2020年的25.7%，履约利润率（毛利率扣除履约费用率）高于行业平均水平。\n社区零售数字化已经来到大爆发的前夜\n在用户方面，从2018年到2020年，每日优鲜有效用户数量分别为510万、720万和 870万，有效用户平均消费额别为558.0元、690.4元和712.8元。鉴于每日优鲜将有效用户定义为“扣除折扣和优惠券后产品付款大于相关销售产品成本的交易用户”，它因此拥有一批数量和交易额均逐年增加的正向利润贡献用户。\n\n此外，每日优鲜平均客单价为94.6元，高于行业其他前置仓企业。其核心用户（某一年份至少一个月内下单4次或以上的用户）在交易用户中的占比从2018年的14.9%，增加到2020年的21.1%，截至2021年3月31日，核心用户年消费额达2106元。\n徐正在演讲中提到，“尽管今天是优鲜创业7年来的重要时刻，但作为一家以持续地、疯狂地、长期地创造价值为目标的企业，我希望每个优鲜人都能保持Always Day One的创业心态。”\n他表示，作为一家以追求长期价值为目标的企业，每日优鲜会保持always day one的心态，继续在社区零售数字化领域做探索，让更多家庭享受到优质购物体验，帮助更多商家实现高效管理和运营。\n社区零售数字化是未来中国增量最大、增速最快的市场。根据艾瑞咨询数据，从2020年到2025年，社区零售行业规模预计会从11.9万亿增至15.7万亿，社区零售线上化渗透率则会从20.9%增至45.5%，这意味着到2025年，中国数字化社区零售的行业规模将达到7.2万亿。\n正如徐正所说，上市是新起点。社区零售数字化已经来到大爆发的前夜，在下半场的竞争中，社区零售平台们，面临的不仅仅是业务之争，还有资本之争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126682462,"gmtCreate":1624561587256,"gmtModify":1703840397914,"author":{"id":"3582937846907476","authorId":"3582937846907476","name":"Heytorres","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582937846907476","idStr":"3582937846907476"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126682462","repostId":"1144044065","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144044065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624532990,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144044065?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 19:09","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144044065","media":"新浪财经","summary":"这次疫情至少是自第二次世界大战以来对全球经济、人类社会最大的一次冲击。","content":"<p>The 2021 Caixin Summer Summit was held in Beijing on June 23-25, 2021. Yu Xuejun, leader of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, attended and delivered a speech.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the global economy is in a sensitive period of evolution and change, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term.</p><p>He explained that, first of all, the complexity and sensitivity faced by the global economy this year were formed by the outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic around the world last year. \"This impact is too great\". He cited the UN report as saying it was \"the worst contraction of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the contraction was 2.5 times that of the 2009 international financial crisis\". He added,</p><p>\"As far as we can remember, this epidemic is at least the biggest shock to the global economy and human society since World War II.\" Last year, the global economy declined by 4.4% overall. Because of China's good epidemic control, epidemic prevention and economic work, the resumption of work and production was effective and effective, and it became the only country among the top ten economies in the world to achieve positive growth, with an annual economic growth of 2.3%. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"This (growth) of 2.3% is very famous now. When we watch TV and newspapers, including some foreign scholars, they often mention 2.3%.\" Secondly, due to the rare impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, governments of various countries have generally implemented ultra-loose stimulating economic policies. Historically, these policies are unprecedented and have played an important role in stabilizing the economy and maintaining social order in various countries. However, at the same time, these ultra-loose policies have also brought many problems.</p><p>Third, the changes and impacts of global geopolitics.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the key link to control the epidemic lies in the research and development and vaccination of vaccines. All countries hope to do it in one battle. Now it seems that the progress is fast, far exceeding people's previous expectations. How it changes in the future depends on two factors. One is that the effectiveness of the vaccine, including the expiration date, remains to be tested by time.</p><p>The second is the speed and complexity of the COVID-19 virus mutation. \"In the past, we used to say a phrase in banking supervision, which was called 'supervision is a race against risk'. Today, we borrow this phrase. We think that fighting the COVID-19 epidemic is actually a race against the mutation of the COVID-19 virus.\" He said that on the whole, the situation of human fighting the COVID-19 epidemic has become bright. Now it generally seems to be dominated by optimism, and I believe that the negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken.</p><p>Talking about where the ultra-loose stimulus policy goes from here, Yu Xuejun analyzed the situation in the United States.</p><p>After COVID-19 spread widely in the United States during the Trump administration last year, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Reserve rate from 1.5%-1.75% to 0% to 0.25% in one go in mid-March, the so-called \"zero rate\". At the end of the year, the Federal Reserve increased its QE policy, increasing its bond purchase scale to 120 billion USD every month from December.</p><p>After President Biden took office, he has further increased fiscal stimulus policies, the most representative of which is the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout bill passed in April this year. In addition, he also put forward a revival plan for infrastructure investment. It was initially drawn up at a scale of 2.25 trillion dollars, which has recently been compressed to an estimated $1 trillion.</p><p>Since last year, the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy has significantly increased its balance sheet, which has soared from about $4 trillion at the beginning to $7.5 trillion at the end of the year, and the latest reached about $8 trillion. This has inflated the global dollar liquidity and caused the price of commodities to rise sharply, including the rare increase in food prices, resulting in global concerns about inflation.</p><p>Yu Xuejun believes that with the improvement of the anti-epidemic situation in the United States, the U.S. economy has rebounded strongly under the accumulated effect of ultra-loose monetary stimulus policies. According to the latest OECD medium-term economic outlook forecast, the U.S. economy will grow by 6.9% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.</p><p>In response to these new changes, the Federal Reserve has begun to release hawkish signals at the latest interest rate meeting in June, and the market expects the rate hike of the Federal Reserve to be advanced by one year to the second half of 2022. In addition, inflation expectations have also been sharply raised. It is expected that the PCE and personal consumption expenditure price index of the United States will rise to 3.4% in 2021, an increase of 1 percentage point from the forecast in March. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"We are in such a window period when macro-control policies may be adjusted and changed at any time, so the market performance is extremely sensitive. A message or a wording of the Federal Reserve may cause huge fluctuations in the market. Now, grain, iron ore, oil, gold and exchange rates rise and fall almost every day, with different changes and no consistent direction. They are in such a sensitive period.\" Why is it difficult to return to short-term normality? He gives two reasons:</p><p>First, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is too great, and the epidemic control is still unpredictable. In addition, it will take time to assess the significant impact of the pandemic on human society after it is controlled, especially the impact on economic activities.</p><p>Second, the ultra-loose stimulus policies of various countries have had a significant impact. The withdrawal of these policies takes a long process, and it is difficult to recover. In particular, the base money put out by the Federal Reserve is difficult to recover in the short term, and it may become a period of history and be preserved forever.</p><p>\"After the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing. Before this, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve was less than 900 billion dollars, which later increased to a maximum of 4.5 trillion dollars, and now it has increased to 8 trillion dollars. Calculated in this way,<b>The final Fed balance sheet is expected to be more than 10 times higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis</b>These large amounts of US dollar liquidity are invested all over the world, which has a huge impact on the global economic and financial markets, especially the next impact on inflation. I think it is difficult to eliminate and accurately assess in the short term. \"</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCBIRC official: The global economy is in a sensitive period, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 19:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 Caixin Summer Summit was held in Beijing on June 23-25, 2021. Yu Xuejun, leader of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, attended and delivered a speech.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the global economy is in a sensitive period of evolution and change, and it is difficult to return to normal in the short term.</p><p>He explained that, first of all, the complexity and sensitivity faced by the global economy this year were formed by the outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic around the world last year. \"This impact is too great\". He cited the UN report as saying it was \"the worst contraction of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the contraction was 2.5 times that of the 2009 international financial crisis\". He added,</p><p>\"As far as we can remember, this epidemic is at least the biggest shock to the global economy and human society since World War II.\" Last year, the global economy declined by 4.4% overall. Because of China's good epidemic control, epidemic prevention and economic work, the resumption of work and production was effective and effective, and it became the only country among the top ten economies in the world to achieve positive growth, with an annual economic growth of 2.3%. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"This (growth) of 2.3% is very famous now. When we watch TV and newspapers, including some foreign scholars, they often mention 2.3%.\" Secondly, due to the rare impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, governments of various countries have generally implemented ultra-loose stimulating economic policies. Historically, these policies are unprecedented and have played an important role in stabilizing the economy and maintaining social order in various countries. However, at the same time, these ultra-loose policies have also brought many problems.</p><p>Third, the changes and impacts of global geopolitics.</p><p>Yu Xuejun said that the key link to control the epidemic lies in the research and development and vaccination of vaccines. All countries hope to do it in one battle. Now it seems that the progress is fast, far exceeding people's previous expectations. How it changes in the future depends on two factors. One is that the effectiveness of the vaccine, including the expiration date, remains to be tested by time.</p><p>The second is the speed and complexity of the COVID-19 virus mutation. \"In the past, we used to say a phrase in banking supervision, which was called 'supervision is a race against risk'. Today, we borrow this phrase. We think that fighting the COVID-19 epidemic is actually a race against the mutation of the COVID-19 virus.\" He said that on the whole, the situation of human fighting the COVID-19 epidemic has become bright. Now it generally seems to be dominated by optimism, and I believe that the negative impact on the economy will gradually weaken.</p><p>Talking about where the ultra-loose stimulus policy goes from here, Yu Xuejun analyzed the situation in the United States.</p><p>After COVID-19 spread widely in the United States during the Trump administration last year, the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Reserve rate from 1.5%-1.75% to 0% to 0.25% in one go in mid-March, the so-called \"zero rate\". At the end of the year, the Federal Reserve increased its QE policy, increasing its bond purchase scale to 120 billion USD every month from December.</p><p>After President Biden took office, he has further increased fiscal stimulus policies, the most representative of which is the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout bill passed in April this year. In addition, he also put forward a revival plan for infrastructure investment. It was initially drawn up at a scale of 2.25 trillion dollars, which has recently been compressed to an estimated $1 trillion.</p><p>Since last year, the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy has significantly increased its balance sheet, which has soared from about $4 trillion at the beginning to $7.5 trillion at the end of the year, and the latest reached about $8 trillion. This has inflated the global dollar liquidity and caused the price of commodities to rise sharply, including the rare increase in food prices, resulting in global concerns about inflation.</p><p>Yu Xuejun believes that with the improvement of the anti-epidemic situation in the United States, the U.S. economy has rebounded strongly under the accumulated effect of ultra-loose monetary stimulus policies. According to the latest OECD medium-term economic outlook forecast, the U.S. economy will grow by 6.9% this year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.</p><p>In response to these new changes, the Federal Reserve has begun to release hawkish signals at the latest interest rate meeting in June, and the market expects the rate hike of the Federal Reserve to be advanced by one year to the second half of 2022. In addition, inflation expectations have also been sharply raised. It is expected that the PCE and personal consumption expenditure price index of the United States will rise to 3.4% in 2021, an increase of 1 percentage point from the forecast in March. Yu Xuejun said,</p><p>\"We are in such a window period when macro-control policies may be adjusted and changed at any time, so the market performance is extremely sensitive. A message or a wording of the Federal Reserve may cause huge fluctuations in the market. Now, grain, iron ore, oil, gold and exchange rates rise and fall almost every day, with different changes and no consistent direction. They are in such a sensitive period.\" Why is it difficult to return to short-term normality? He gives two reasons:</p><p>First, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is too great, and the epidemic control is still unpredictable. In addition, it will take time to assess the significant impact of the pandemic on human society after it is controlled, especially the impact on economic activities.</p><p>Second, the ultra-loose stimulus policies of various countries have had a significant impact. The withdrawal of these policies takes a long process, and it is difficult to recover. In particular, the base money put out by the Federal Reserve is difficult to recover in the short term, and it may become a period of history and be preserved forever.</p><p>\"After the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing. Before this, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve was less than 900 billion dollars, which later increased to a maximum of 4.5 trillion dollars, and now it has increased to 8 trillion dollars. Calculated in this way,<b>The final Fed balance sheet is expected to be more than 10 times higher than it was before the 2008 financial crisis</b>These large amounts of US dollar liquidity are invested all over the world, which has a huge impact on the global economic and financial markets, especially the next impact on inflation. I think it is difficult to eliminate and accurately assess in the short term. \"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.cn/hy/2021-06-24/detail-ikqciyzk1510511.d.html?from=wap\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0777ffe79222b2a04c15407e205bed9","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.cn/hy/2021-06-24/detail-ikqciyzk1510511.d.html?from=wap","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144044065","content_text":"2021财新夏季峰会于2021年6月23-25日在北京举办，中国银行保险监督管理委员会领导于学军出席并演讲。\n于学军表示，全球经济正处于演进变化的敏感时期，短期内难以回归常态。\n他解释称，首先，今年全球经济面临的复杂性和敏感性是受去年新冠肺炎疫情在全球的暴发、蔓延而形成的，“这个冲击太大了”。他引用联合国报告称这“是自上世纪30年代经济大萧条以来，全球经济最严重的收缩，收缩的程度是2009年国际金融危机的2.5倍”。他又说道，\n\n “从我们的记忆来说，这次疫情至少是自第二次世界大战以来对全球经济、人类社会最大的一次冲击。”\n\n去年全球经济总体下降4.4%，由于中国疫情控制得好，并且防疫和经济工作两手抓，复工复产有力有效，成为了全球前十大经济体中唯一实现正增长的国家，全年经济增长2.3%。于学军说，\n\n “这个（增长）2.3%，现在非常有名，我们看电视、报纸，包括国外的一些学者，他们也经常提起来2.3%。”\n\n第二，由于新冠疫情对全球经济形成的罕见冲击，所以各国政府普遍实行了超宽松的刺激性经济政策，历史比较来看，这些政策力度是空前的，在各国稳定经济和维护社会秩序等方面均发挥了重要作用，但与此同时这些超宽松的政策也带来许多问题。\n第三，全球地缘政治的变化和影响。\n于学军表示，控制疫情的关键环节在于疫苗的研发和接种，各国都希望可以毕其功于一役，现在看进展很快，远超出人们之前的预期。未来如何变化取决于两个因素，一是疫苗的有效性，包括有效期，尚有待时间检验。\n二是新冠病毒变异的速度和复杂性。“过去我们做银行监管常说的一句话，叫做‘监管就是与风险赛跑’，今天我们把这句话借用过来，我们认为抗击新冠疫情实际上也是与新冠病毒的变异赛跑”，他说，总体来看人类抗击新冠疫情的形势已现光明，现在普遍看起来是乐观情绪主导，相信对经济的负面影响也会逐步减弱。\n谈及超宽松的刺激性政策何去何从，于学军分析了美国的情况。\n去年在特朗普执政时期，新冠肺炎在美国大面积传染之后，美联储在3月中旬一次性将联邦储备利率由1.5%-1.75%调低为0%到0.25%，即所谓的“零利率”。年末美联储又加大QE政策，从12月起将其购债规模每月增加到1200亿美元。\n拜登总统上任之后，进一步加大财政的刺激性政策，最具代表性的就是于今年4月通过的1.9万亿美元的新冠纾困法案。另外，他还提出基建投资的复兴计划。开始拟定的是2.25万亿规模，最近有所压缩，预计约1万亿美元。\n去年开始美联储实行超宽松的货币政策，使其资产负债表大幅增加，已从初期的约4万亿美元陡增至年末的7.5万亿美元，最新大概达到8万亿美元。这使全球的美元流动性不断膨胀，并造成大宗初级商品的价格大幅上涨，包括粮食也出现罕见的涨价现象，全球对通胀的担忧由此产生。\n于学军认为，随着美国抗疫形势出现好转，在货币超宽松刺激政策累加的作用之下，美国经济出现强势反弹，最新据经合组织OECD中期经济展望预测，今年美国经济将增长6.9%，比之前的预测调高了0.4个百分点。\n针对这些新变化，美联储在6月最新的议息会议上已开始释放鹰派信号，市场预计美联储加息或提前一年至2022年下半年。另外通货膨胀预期也被大幅上调，预计2021年美国的PCE及个人消费支出价格指数将升到3.4%，较3月的预测值上调1个百分点。于学军称，\n\n “我们处于这样一个宏观调控政策有可能随时发生调整变化的窗口期，所以市场表现极为敏感，一个信息、美联储的一句措词都有可能引起市场的巨大波动。现在粮食、铁矿石、石油、黄金、汇率几乎每天都出现上涨、下跌，有不同的变化，没有一致的方向，处在这样的一个敏感期。”\n\n为什么短期常态难回归呢？他给出两个原因：\n一是新冠疫情的冲击太大，现在疫情控制仍然难以预料。另外，疫情控制之后其对人类社会产生的重大影响，尤其是对经济活动的影响，也需要一个时间进行评估。\n二是各国超宽松的刺激性政策形成了重大影响，这些政策的退出需要一个较长的过程，并且覆水难收，尤其是美联储投放出去的基础货币很难在短期收回，也许会成为一段历史永远保留下去。\n\n “2008年美国发生金融危机之后，美联储就实行了量化宽松的货币政策，这个之前美联储的资产负债表不到9000亿美元，后来最高增加到了4.5万亿美元，现在又增加到8万亿美元。这样计算下来，\n 预计最终美联储的资产负债表将比2008年金融危机之前提高10倍以上，这些大量的美元流动性投入到世界各地，对全球经济金融市场形成巨大影响，尤其是下一步对通货膨胀的影响，我认为短期内难以消除，也难以准确评估。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}