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Lalalanana
Lalalanana
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2022-09-26
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-24
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Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market
A lot of scary words have been floating around with "recession" and "inflation" at the top of the li
Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-23
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Stock Market Slump: Should You Really Buy Roku Stock?
Many of Roku's negative qualities have come to light recently, but don't ignore the positives.
Stock Market Slump: Should You Really Buy Roku Stock?
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-23
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Wall Street Ends Down for Third Day As Growth Concerns Weigh on Tech
* Tech stocks down in aftermath of Fed's latest rate move* Investors concerned about possibility of
Wall Street Ends Down for Third Day As Growth Concerns Weigh on Tech
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-22
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US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message
* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors ha
US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-21
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The Stock Market Has Rallied on Day of Every Fed Rate-Hike Decision in 2022. Could It Happen Again Wednesday?
Stocks slide a day ahead of Fed decisionSTEFANI REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESWith the F
The Stock Market Has Rallied on Day of Every Fed Rate-Hike Decision in 2022. Could It Happen Again Wednesday?
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-20
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Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes
SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price
Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-19
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The Fed Needs To Break The Market At This Week's Meeting
SummaryThe Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting.The communications must be crystal
The Fed Needs To Break The Market At This Week's Meeting
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Lalalanana
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2022-09-17
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Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards
SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m
Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards
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2022-09-17
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Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards
SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m
Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards
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People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"thestreet_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I'm Not Worried About the Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-24 08:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A lot of scary words have been floating around with \"recession\" and \"inflation\" at the top of the list. People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4114":"综合货品商店","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","WMT":"沃尔玛","YUM":"Yum Brands","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","DIS":"迪士尼","BK4528":"SaaS概念","MSFT":"微软","BK4136":"纸材料包装","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","BK4209":"餐馆","TGT":"塔吉特","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","COST":"好市多","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SBUX":"星巴克","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/why-im-not-worried-about-the-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269657466","content_text":"A lot of scary words have been floating around with \"recession\" and \"inflation\" at the top of the list. People are worried about the economy and the Federal Reserve has not been helping as it steadily raises interest rates. That, in theory, acts as a check on inflation, but mostly makes money more expensive which impacts mortgage rates, credit card interest, and really any money people borrow going forward.That has driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average steadily downward. The index fell by nearly 500 points on Sept. 23 sending it to a low for 2022. In a broad sense. it's not just the Dow as the Nasdaq has steadily fallen as well.We all know the story and understand the fears, but market fears about what might happen don't actually track with what's actually happening in the U.S. economy.The U.S. Economy Has Been StrongObviously, inflation has hit many lower-income Americans hard. But the employment market remains strong with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.7%. That's not quite a historical low, but it's in that range. In addition, there's exactly one-half of an available job seeker for every available job opening, That actually is a historical low since the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking that data.Job openings, however, don't always mean good jobs, but wages have also been rising in the service industry and even fast food jobs. Walmart, Target, Yum! Brands, Starbucks, and a number of other retailers have embraced a $15 minimum wage.And, while the employment market remains strong, the flip side of that is rising housing costs coupled with higher mortgage rates. That's not great news for people buying a house (even if history suggests they still should) but it has a flip side. If you own a house, it has become a fast-rising asset that increases your net worth.The economy is, of course, personal. If you can't find a job or afford to live where you want to, that's very real. Broadly, however, there are a lot of signs that the economy remains strong and that many of the issues we're having relate to what might be called a pandemic hangover.Market Drops Are the Best Times to InvestMany of my favorite companies have dropped by 30% or more. I don't stop believing in Costco, Walt Disney, or Microsoft (just to name a few) because their share prices have fallen. In fact, I look at all three of these companies and how they handled the pandemic and prepared for the future and feel better about them.Stock price does not always equate to performance in the short term. Disney, for example, has the best intellectual property (IP) of any entertainment company and has endless pricing power. In fact, if you were offered \"every other companies' IP\" or Disney's, you can make a case to take Disney.Costco just delivered one of its highest renewal rates ever (over 92%) and continues to add members, Microsoft has only gotten stronger as it pivots more fully to a software as a service model, yet all three of those companies have seen double digit stock drops this year.In a bad market, I cling to the mantra \"time in the market beats timing the market.\" Now is the time to add to your holdings in really strong companies. Consider that good companies are now on sale, really big sales in some cases, and add strategically to your long-term holdings.After you do that, remember that long-term means years. Check in on the companies you own to make sure they have stayed on course, but don't check your portfolio everyday. A market drop feels bad, but historically, it means nothing. Good companies will recover and investing in them, plus time (maybe a lot of time) is what makes investors rich.BY DANIEL KLINE","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COST":1,"DIS":1,"TGT":1,"SBUX":1,"MSFT":1,"WMT":1,"YUM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913933194,"gmtCreate":1663894718518,"gmtModify":1676537357739,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913933194","repostId":"2269122425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269122425","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663891882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269122425?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 08:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock Market Slump: Should You Really Buy Roku Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269122425","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Many of Roku's negative qualities have come to light recently, but don't ignore the positives.","content":"<div>\n<p>Few stocks have suffered more in the bear market than Roku. After peaking at $490 per share in July 2021, it has lost about 85% of its value. For those who bought this stock near the peak, it may take...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/22/stock-market-slump-should-really-buy-roku-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock Market Slump: Should You Really Buy Roku Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock Market Slump: Should You Really Buy Roku Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-23 08:11 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/22/stock-market-slump-should-really-buy-roku-stock/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Few stocks have suffered more in the bear market than Roku. After peaking at $490 per share in July 2021, it has lost about 85% of its value. For those who bought this stock near the peak, it may take...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/22/stock-market-slump-should-really-buy-roku-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/22/stock-market-slump-should-really-buy-roku-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269122425","content_text":"Few stocks have suffered more in the bear market than Roku. After peaking at $490 per share in July 2021, it has lost about 85% of its value. For those who bought this stock near the peak, it may take years to recover such losses.But despite Roku's faults, investors may have good reason to start liking the stock again. Although investors should stay aware of its challenges, they should also consider the secular trends that could bolster the streaming service stock in the long term.Why some investors may not like Roku stockAdmittedly, Roku's business climate and performance appear discouraging. The challenges occurred at a time when supply chain constraints made it harder to bring its streaming players and Roku-equipped smart TVs to market.Additionally, for all of the focus on its streaming platform, it derives most of its revenue from advertising. This bodes poorly as high inflation and a sluggish economy have discouraged spending, leaving businesses with fewer reasons to buy ads.So severe is the ad slowdown that Roku only predicts 3% total net revenue growth in Q3 to $700 million.This is down from 18% in Q2 and 56% in the 2021 calendar year. The slower revenue growth and the bear market helped lead to the massive drop in the stock price.Moreover, that stock price decline has taken its market cap under $10 billion. That places Roku in a weakened position. Peers such as Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Samsung also compete in this industry. The liquidity position alone of these companies is several times the value of all Roku stock. If these peers are motivated, they could invest enough to claim Roku's market share or the company itself.Roku's continuing improvementsHowever, investors should also ask why such a small company has gained traction over these much larger peers. First, it helped that CEO Anthony Wood worked for Netflix while building Roku, which enhanced the first-mover advantage Roku built in this market. According to Conviva, Roku continues to benefit as it holds just under 31% of the global market share, well ahead of the second-largest streamer, Amazon, at 16%.Furthermore, the streaming sticks are affordable and work well. Its Roku Express HD streaming player retails for just under $30 and has earned an average of 4.7 out of five stars from more than 166,000 reviews on Amazon. That compares well to $179 for Apple's streaming player.Additionally, despite the launch of the Roku Channel (which is not a paid service), Roku has served primarily as a neutral player among paid streaming services. This reduces the odds of bias toward a specific paid streaming service.Its actions have led to an ecosystem that continues to draw the interest of advertisers and attract ad dollars from traditional TV. For the 2022-2023 season, it made deals with all seven major agency holding companies, leading to over $1 billion in commitments.And contrary to expectations, this audience continues to grow even as consumers emerging from lockdowns spend less time online. Roku reported 63.1 million active accounts in the second quarter of 2022, 14% higher than year-ago levels. The average revenue per user (ARPU) also increased by 21% during that time frame to $44.10.Investors should also remember that this has occurred during a \"slowdown\" in advertising. This means growth could increase as the economy and, by extension, ad spending begins to recover.Finally, despite these improvements, the stock continues to become more affordable. Its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has fallen to 3, down from 33 in early 2021.Consider Roku stockIndeed, the minuscule revenue growth amid a slowing economy and supply chain constraints bode poorly for Roku. However, upon closer examination, neither the trend away from online activities nor economic woes have stopped Roku's growth. In fact, with almost 31% of the streaming market, Roku has made itself the largest beneficiary of a secular move away from traditional TV. As Roku recovers, these factors make it increasingly likely that this top growth stock is a screaming buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ROKU":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913933066,"gmtCreate":1663894699255,"gmtModify":1676537357732,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913933066","repostId":"2269749121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269749121","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663887366,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269749121?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Ends Down for Third Day As Growth Concerns Weigh on Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269749121","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Tech stocks down in aftermath of Fed's latest rate move* Investors concerned about possibility of ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Tech stocks down in aftermath of Fed's latest rate move</p><p>* Investors concerned about possibility of recession</p><p>* Darden Restaurants falls on downbeat quarterly sales</p><p>* JetBlue posts lowest close since March 2020</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 0.35%, S&P 0.84%, Nasdaq 1.37%</p><p>Sept 22 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street indexes ended lower on Thursday, falling for a third straight session as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's latest aggressive move to rein in inflation by selling growth stocks, including technology companies.</p><p>The Fed lifted rates by an expected 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled a longer trajectory for policy rates than markets had priced in, fuelling fears of further volatility in stock and bond trading in a year that has already seen bear markets in both asset classes.</p><p>The U.S. central bank's projections for economic growth released on Wednesday were also eye-catching, with growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% for 2023.</p><p>Jitters were already present in the market after a number of companies - most recently FedEx Corp and Ford Motor Co- issued dire outlooks for earnings.</p><p>As of Friday, the S&P 500's estimated earnings growth for the third quarter is at 5%, according to Refinitiv data. Excluding the energy sector, the growth rate is at -1.7%.</p><p>The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio, a common metric for valuing stocks, is at 16.8 times earnings - far below the nearly 22 times forward P/E that stocks commanded at the start of the year.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors fell, led by declines of 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively, in consumer discretionary and financial stocks.</p><p>Shares of megacap technology and growth companies such as Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell between 1% and 5.3% as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hit an 11-year high.</p><p>Rising yields weigh particularly on valuations of companies in the technology sector, which have high expected future earnings and form a significant part of the market-cap weighted indexes such as the S&P 500.</p><p>The S&P 500 tech sector has slumped 28% so far this year, compared with a 21.2% decline in the benchmark index.</p><p>"If we continue to have sticky inflation, and if (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell sticks to his guns as he indicates, I think we enter recession and we see significant drawdown on earnings expectations," said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets at Boston Partners.</p><p>"If this happens, I have high conviction under those conditions that we break 3,636," he added, referring to the S&P 500's mid-June low, its weakest point of the year.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.1 points, or 0.35%, to 30,076.68, the S&P 500 lost 31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3,757.99 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11,066.81.</p><p>Major U.S. airlines - which have enjoyed a rebound amid increased travel as pandemic restrictions end - were also down, with United Airlines and American Airlines falling 4.6% and 3.9% respectively. This took losses in the last three days to 11% for United and 10.6% for American.</p><p>JetBlue Airways Corp, off 7.1% and also recording a third straight loss, closed at its lowest level since March 2020.</p><p>Darden Restaurants Inc slid 4.4% after the Olive Garden parent reported downbeat first-quarter sales.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.39 billion shares, compared with the 10.91 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 123 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 699 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Ends Down for Third Day As Growth Concerns Weigh on Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Ends Down for Third Day As Growth Concerns Weigh on Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-23 06:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Tech stocks down in aftermath of Fed's latest rate move</p><p>* Investors concerned about possibility of recession</p><p>* Darden Restaurants falls on downbeat quarterly sales</p><p>* JetBlue posts lowest close since March 2020</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 0.35%, S&P 0.84%, Nasdaq 1.37%</p><p>Sept 22 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street indexes ended lower on Thursday, falling for a third straight session as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's latest aggressive move to rein in inflation by selling growth stocks, including technology companies.</p><p>The Fed lifted rates by an expected 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled a longer trajectory for policy rates than markets had priced in, fuelling fears of further volatility in stock and bond trading in a year that has already seen bear markets in both asset classes.</p><p>The U.S. central bank's projections for economic growth released on Wednesday were also eye-catching, with growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% for 2023.</p><p>Jitters were already present in the market after a number of companies - most recently FedEx Corp and Ford Motor Co- issued dire outlooks for earnings.</p><p>As of Friday, the S&P 500's estimated earnings growth for the third quarter is at 5%, according to Refinitiv data. Excluding the energy sector, the growth rate is at -1.7%.</p><p>The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio, a common metric for valuing stocks, is at 16.8 times earnings - far below the nearly 22 times forward P/E that stocks commanded at the start of the year.</p><p>Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors fell, led by declines of 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively, in consumer discretionary and financial stocks.</p><p>Shares of megacap technology and growth companies such as Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell between 1% and 5.3% as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hit an 11-year high.</p><p>Rising yields weigh particularly on valuations of companies in the technology sector, which have high expected future earnings and form a significant part of the market-cap weighted indexes such as the S&P 500.</p><p>The S&P 500 tech sector has slumped 28% so far this year, compared with a 21.2% decline in the benchmark index.</p><p>"If we continue to have sticky inflation, and if (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell sticks to his guns as he indicates, I think we enter recession and we see significant drawdown on earnings expectations," said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets at Boston Partners.</p><p>"If this happens, I have high conviction under those conditions that we break 3,636," he added, referring to the S&P 500's mid-June low, its weakest point of the year.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.1 points, or 0.35%, to 30,076.68, the S&P 500 lost 31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3,757.99 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11,066.81.</p><p>Major U.S. airlines - which have enjoyed a rebound amid increased travel as pandemic restrictions end - were also down, with United Airlines and American Airlines falling 4.6% and 3.9% respectively. This took losses in the last three days to 11% for United and 10.6% for American.</p><p>JetBlue Airways Corp, off 7.1% and also recording a third straight loss, closed at its lowest level since March 2020.</p><p>Darden Restaurants Inc slid 4.4% after the Olive Garden parent reported downbeat first-quarter sales.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.39 billion shares, compared with the 10.91 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 123 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 699 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","AAL":"美国航空",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","AMZN":"亚马逊","DRI":"达登饭店","NVDA":"英伟达","FDX":"联邦快递","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","UAL":"联合大陆航空","JBLU":"捷蓝航空","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269749121","content_text":"* Tech stocks down in aftermath of Fed's latest rate move* Investors concerned about possibility of recession* Darden Restaurants falls on downbeat quarterly sales* JetBlue posts lowest close since March 2020* Indexes down: Dow 0.35%, S&P 0.84%, Nasdaq 1.37%Sept 22 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street indexes ended lower on Thursday, falling for a third straight session as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's latest aggressive move to rein in inflation by selling growth stocks, including technology companies.The Fed lifted rates by an expected 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled a longer trajectory for policy rates than markets had priced in, fuelling fears of further volatility in stock and bond trading in a year that has already seen bear markets in both asset classes.The U.S. central bank's projections for economic growth released on Wednesday were also eye-catching, with growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% for 2023.Jitters were already present in the market after a number of companies - most recently FedEx Corp and Ford Motor Co- issued dire outlooks for earnings.As of Friday, the S&P 500's estimated earnings growth for the third quarter is at 5%, according to Refinitiv data. Excluding the energy sector, the growth rate is at -1.7%.The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio, a common metric for valuing stocks, is at 16.8 times earnings - far below the nearly 22 times forward P/E that stocks commanded at the start of the year.Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors fell, led by declines of 2.2% and 1.7%, respectively, in consumer discretionary and financial stocks.Shares of megacap technology and growth companies such as Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp fell between 1% and 5.3% as benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hit an 11-year high.Rising yields weigh particularly on valuations of companies in the technology sector, which have high expected future earnings and form a significant part of the market-cap weighted indexes such as the S&P 500.The S&P 500 tech sector has slumped 28% so far this year, compared with a 21.2% decline in the benchmark index.\"If we continue to have sticky inflation, and if (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell sticks to his guns as he indicates, I think we enter recession and we see significant drawdown on earnings expectations,\" said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets at Boston Partners.\"If this happens, I have high conviction under those conditions that we break 3,636,\" he added, referring to the S&P 500's mid-June low, its weakest point of the year.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 107.1 points, or 0.35%, to 30,076.68, the S&P 500 lost 31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3,757.99 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11,066.81.Major U.S. airlines - which have enjoyed a rebound amid increased travel as pandemic restrictions end - were also down, with United Airlines and American Airlines falling 4.6% and 3.9% respectively. This took losses in the last three days to 11% for United and 10.6% for American.JetBlue Airways Corp, off 7.1% and also recording a third straight loss, closed at its lowest level since March 2020.Darden Restaurants Inc slid 4.4% after the Olive Garden parent reported downbeat first-quarter sales.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.39 billion shares, compared with the 10.91 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted one new 52-week high and 123 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 18 new highs and 699 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDM":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"TSLA":0.9,"LHDX":0.65,"DJX":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SANA":0.65,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"AMZN":0.9,"FDX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"LABP":0.65,"UDOW":0.6,"AAL":0.9,"F":0.9,"CGEM":0.65,"SDOW":0.6,"DRI":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"UAL":0.9,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"JBLU":0.9,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919228810,"gmtCreate":1663809760430,"gmtModify":1676537340537,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919228810","repostId":"2269969281","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269969281","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1663800880,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269969281?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 06:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269969281","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range</p><p>* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023</p><p>* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer</p><p>* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%</p><p>Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.</p><p>All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.</p><p>At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.</p><p>However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p>Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.</p><p>In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are "strongly resolved" to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and "will keep at it until the job is done," a process he repeated would not come without pain.</p><p>"Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p>Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed's projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.</p><p>"Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments," said BMO's Ma.</p><p>"But it's always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell."</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.</p><p>All 11 S&P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Slumps As Investors Absorb Hawkish Fed Rate Message\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-22 06:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range</p><p>* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023</p><p>* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer</p><p>* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading</p><p>* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%</p><p>Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.</p><p>All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.</p><p>At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.</p><p>However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.</p><p>Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.</p><p>In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are "strongly resolved" to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and "will keep at it until the job is done," a process he repeated would not come without pain.</p><p>"Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.</p><p>Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed's projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.</p><p>"Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments," said BMO's Ma.</p><p>"But it's always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell."</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.</p><p>All 11 S&P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","COMP":"Compass, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4539":"次新股","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269969281","content_text":"* Fed raises rates by 75 bps to 3-3.25% range* Terminal rate seen hitting 4.6% in 2023* Investors had expected 75 bps, but not higher for longer* Sharp decline in final half-hour of trading* Indexes down: Dow 1.7%, S&P 1.71%, Nasdaq 1.79%Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes see-sawed before slumping in the final 30 minutes of trading to end Wednesday lower, as investors digested another supersized Federal Reserve hike and its commitment to keep up increases into 2023 to fight inflation.All three benchmarks finished more than 1.7% down, with the Dow posting its lowest close since June 17, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, respectively, at their lowest point since July 1, and June 30.At the end of its two-day meeting, the Fed lifted its policy rate by 75 basis points for the third time to a 3.00-3.25% range. Most market participants had expected such an increase, with only a 21% chance of a 100 bps rate hike seen prior to the announcement.However, policymakers also signaled more large increases to come in new projections showing its policy rate rising to 4.40% by the end of this year before topping out at 4.60% in 2023. This is up from projections in June of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively.Rate cuts are not foreseen until 2024, the central bank added, dashing any outstanding investor hopes that the Fed foresaw getting inflation under control in the near term. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is now seen slowly returning to its 2% target in 2025.In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. central bank officials are \"strongly resolved\" to bring down inflation from the highest levels in four decades and \"will keep at it until the job is done,\" a process he repeated would not come without pain.\"Chairman Powell delivered a sobering message. He stated that no one knows if there will be a recession or how severe, and that achieving a soft landing was always difficult,\" said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at BMO Wealth Management.Higher rates and the battle against inflation was also feeding through into the U.S. economy, with the Fed's projections showing year-end growth of just 0.2% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2023.\"Markets were already braced for some hawkishness, based on inflation reports and recent governor comments,\" said BMO's Ma.\"But it's always interesting to see how the market reacts to the messaging. Hawkishness was to be expected, but while some in the market take comfort from that, others take the position to sell.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to 30,183.78, the S&P 500 lost 66 points, or 1.71%, to 3,789.93 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 204.86 points, or 1.79%, to 11,220.19.All 11 S&P sectors finished lower, led by declines of more than 2.3% by Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.03 billion shares, compared with the 10.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 70 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 446 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COMP":0.9,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"NDX":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.67,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919927035,"gmtCreate":1663721712428,"gmtModify":1676537322561,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919927035","repostId":"2269909745","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269909745","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663717151,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269909745?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Has Rallied on Day of Every Fed Rate-Hike Decision in 2022. Could It Happen Again Wednesday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269909745","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Stocks slide a day ahead of Fed decisionSTEFANI REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESWith the F","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks slide a day ahead of Fed decision</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac59bb2b41ad9f787574330ce399463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>STEFANI REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p>With the Federal Open Market Committee kicking off its two-day policy meeting, where central bankers are expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike, the Fed decision on Wednesday may once again be followed by stock-market gains, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas.</p><p>According to Dow Jones Market Data, the previous four times the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 — March 16, May 4, June 15 and July 27 — the S&P 500 rallied 2.2%, 3%, 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively.</p><p>“Wednesdays of Fed meeting weeks this year show the highest daily S&P returns of 1.8 percent on average for the 5-day period, and the best win rate as well,” the Wall Street veteran wrote in a Tuesday note.</p><p>“No guarantees that this will happen again this Wednesday, of course, but we would not be surprised to see traders front-run this fact tomorrow,” Colas noted.</p><p>Those bounces have so far proved fleeting, with the S&P 500 mired in a bear market and down more than 19% for the year to date. Indeed, the Fed’s aggressive tightening pace as it attempts to rein in stubborn inflation gets much of the blame for the market’s 2022 downturn.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5339984a27d1eb5cdaf1c7f000c78dc6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>SOURCE: RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p>U.S. stocks started the week higher with the S&P 500 closing up by 0.7% on Monday. However, stocks came under pressure on Tuesday as investors held firm on expectation of another aggressive rate hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 313 points lower, or 1%. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.9%.</p><p>According to Colas, the phenomenon of a “Fed Drift”, which sees that equities have tended to rally into and through FOMC meetings and hold their gains the day after, no longer works.</p><p>The New York Federal Reserve Bank studied data from 1994 to 2011, which showed the S&P 500 index normally rose 24 hours before the scheduled FOMC announcements. It then drifted sharply higher in the morning of the announcement, and was on average flat, both in the hours immediately after the decision and on the following day.</p><p>Markets are pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 16% chance of a full percentage point increase, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors expect the Fed will not only set a new Fed funds rate but will give them a glimpse to how high it will go in the future.</p><p>According to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, the company foresees an additional 75 basis points before year-end, which will be combined at the November and December meetings and bring the policy rate to 4%.</p><p>“First, the action taken thus far has already impacted the more interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy, especially the housing market,” Adam wrote in a client note dated Sept.16. “Second, although the easing of inflation has been more stubborn than expected, there are a number of real-time indicators that suggest it will cool further in the months ahead (e.g., promotional activity, declining ocean freight rates, lower commodity prices).”</p><p>That is why Adam contends that the worst of this bear market is “likely being behind us” as inflation will moderate over the next year, but the path is “unlikely to be quick or smooth”.</p><p>“Over the coming weeks, the bear market will likely take time to digest the inflationary data flow with back-and-forth trading,” Adam wrote. “With this in mind, we recommend not chasing rallies and using pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate favored stocks for the next bull market.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Has Rallied on Day of Every Fed Rate-Hike Decision in 2022. Could It Happen Again Wednesday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Has Rallied on Day of Every Fed Rate-Hike Decision in 2022. Could It Happen Again Wednesday?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 07:39 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-rallied-on-day-of-every-fed-rate-hike-decision-in-2022-could-it-happen-again-wednesday-11663700609?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks slide a day ahead of Fed decisionSTEFANI REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESWith the Federal Open Market Committee kicking off its two-day policy meeting, where central bankers are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-rallied-on-day-of-every-fed-rate-hike-decision-in-2022-could-it-happen-again-wednesday-11663700609?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-rallied-on-day-of-every-fed-rate-hike-decision-in-2022-could-it-happen-again-wednesday-11663700609?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269909745","content_text":"Stocks slide a day ahead of Fed decisionSTEFANI REYNOLDS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGESWith the Federal Open Market Committee kicking off its two-day policy meeting, where central bankers are expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike, the Fed decision on Wednesday may once again be followed by stock-market gains, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas.According to Dow Jones Market Data, the previous four times the Fed raised interest rates in 2022 — March 16, May 4, June 15 and July 27 — the S&P 500 rallied 2.2%, 3%, 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively.“Wednesdays of Fed meeting weeks this year show the highest daily S&P returns of 1.8 percent on average for the 5-day period, and the best win rate as well,” the Wall Street veteran wrote in a Tuesday note.“No guarantees that this will happen again this Wednesday, of course, but we would not be surprised to see traders front-run this fact tomorrow,” Colas noted.Those bounces have so far proved fleeting, with the S&P 500 mired in a bear market and down more than 19% for the year to date. Indeed, the Fed’s aggressive tightening pace as it attempts to rein in stubborn inflation gets much of the blame for the market’s 2022 downturn.SOURCE: RAYMOND JAMESU.S. stocks started the week higher with the S&P 500 closing up by 0.7% on Monday. However, stocks came under pressure on Tuesday as investors held firm on expectation of another aggressive rate hike. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 313 points lower, or 1%. The S&P 500 shed 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.9%.According to Colas, the phenomenon of a “Fed Drift”, which sees that equities have tended to rally into and through FOMC meetings and hold their gains the day after, no longer works.The New York Federal Reserve Bank studied data from 1994 to 2011, which showed the S&P 500 index normally rose 24 hours before the scheduled FOMC announcements. It then drifted sharply higher in the morning of the announcement, and was on average flat, both in the hours immediately after the decision and on the following day.Markets are pricing in a hike of 75 basis points, with futures showing a 16% chance of a full percentage point increase, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors expect the Fed will not only set a new Fed funds rate but will give them a glimpse to how high it will go in the future.According to Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, the company foresees an additional 75 basis points before year-end, which will be combined at the November and December meetings and bring the policy rate to 4%.“First, the action taken thus far has already impacted the more interest-rate sensitive areas of the economy, especially the housing market,” Adam wrote in a client note dated Sept.16. “Second, although the easing of inflation has been more stubborn than expected, there are a number of real-time indicators that suggest it will cool further in the months ahead (e.g., promotional activity, declining ocean freight rates, lower commodity prices).”That is why Adam contends that the worst of this bear market is “likely being behind us” as inflation will moderate over the next year, but the path is “unlikely to be quick or smooth”.“Over the coming weeks, the bear market will likely take time to digest the inflationary data flow with back-and-forth trading,” Adam wrote. “With this in mind, we recommend not chasing rallies and using pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate favored stocks for the next bull market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910244314,"gmtCreate":1663635704138,"gmtModify":1676537305349,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910244314","repostId":"1138109779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138109779","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663657079,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138109779?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138109779","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Based on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.</li><li>The indicator reflects the difference between average prices during regular and afterhours trading and trends down during a bear market (vice versa for bull market).</li><li>Based on this indicator's performance from 2006 to present, we are currently still in a bear market.</li><li>During the March 2020 Coronavirus pandemic, this indicator was screaming buy despite the sharp declines in the market during that month.</li></ul><p>The Nasdaq has experienced several sharp declines since bottoming in 2009, but the right strategy has been to buy the dip each time. We will use Nasdaq 100 futures (which track the Nasdaq 100 index, same as the Invesco QQQ ETF) for our analysis. For simplicity purposes, if we use the 200-day moving average as a benchmark, Nasdaq 100 has been under the 200-day MA for 852 days out of the last 4236 trading days. 2022 so far has seen the most number of days under the 200-day MA since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa6bb04bc853fbd931923244cc99010\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Days below 200 day MA (Author calc on public info)</p><p>So this begs the question, is the current dip a buy or a sell? Given that the right move has been to buy for the last 13 years, how can we tell this time?</p><p>This article is based on an observation: during a downtrend, the Nasdaq 100 index futures are often trading flat or even up before the U.S. equities markets open, and then it suddenly starts to head south during the U.S. session (9:30 AM to 4 PM ET).</p><p>Based on this observation, I constructed an indicator (which I will call "Regular/After-hours Divergence Indicator," or "RAD") using all-day Nasdaq 100 index futures data to show divergence between U.S. session regular hours (i.e., 9:30 AM to 4 PM) and afterhours. For details on how RAD is calculated, please see the appendix at the bottom.</p><p>I will use the Nasdaq 100 index futures as it has regular and afterhours trading, whereas the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) has more limited afterhours trading data.</p><ul><li>A positive RAD means that average prices during the regular hours are higher than after hours, vice versa for a negative RAD. The cumulative RAD is shown below (i.e., the daily RAD is added cumulatively). The results are plotted below against the Nasdaq 100.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31fa4d91f6e2f217f96ffedcbe75b0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><ul><li>It appears the RAD is trendless or trends positively in a bull market and trends negatively in a bear market/correction. Which means in a bear market, afterhours trading is generally at a higher price before declining during regular hours trading (this is consistent with our observation and feel of how the market usually behaves).</li><li>It is hard to precisely explain this phenomenon, it could be that:</li></ul><ul><li>If we combine this with 200-day MA (greyed out areas represent those days/periods where the closing prices were under the 200-day MA), we can see that the sharp moves down in the RAD coincide with the periods where the closing price was below the 200-day MA, while the RAD levelled off or increased when the closing price was above the 200-day MA.</li></ul><p>Let's break it down into a few major periods and see how the RAD performed in each.</p><p><b>Apr 2006-Dec 2009</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f009ba873bff7511fd700c2356c7d8e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>In 2006-2007, both the Nasdaq 100 and the RAD largely trended in the same direction and the RAD hovered around 0% and did not portend the tectonic shift to come.</p><p>The RAD sharply fell after the September 2008 Lehman shock and continued to fall till bottoming in February 2009 (stocks ultimately bottomed in March 2009). From February 2009 onwards, the RAD largely did not trend though it fluctuated on a day-to-day basis.</p><p><b>2010-2014</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc1edef16b00f55de39e5890b823d3f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>2010 started with a selloff in mid to late 2010. During this period, Nasdaq 100 spent a lot of time oscillating around the 200-day MA as the European debt crisis simmered, but there was not a major negative movement in the RAD and stocks resumed their upward course.</p><p><b>2015-2019</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d88b8cb61e2fe0a41c28f2eeebdc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>From 2015-2019, the RAD showed a persistently negative move in Sep-2015 to Mar-2016 but afterwards it did not deteriorate any further and stocks resumed their upward trend. Amazingly, during this entire trade war period, the RAD did not show much of a negative move except in late 2018. Most of the time the RAD oscillated nowhere and stocks went up.</p><p><b>2020-present</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815e2eef76ef056d502e7cd89efda830\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>This period gets very interesting. Despite a sharp sell-off in March 2020, RAD trended up (meaning regular hours trading had prices higher than afterhours) for most of the period! The RAD was screaming buy while the media was hyping up 100% infection rates on a certain unfortunate cruise ship and Europeans going into lockdown, etc.</p><p>The RAD started persistently falling in Nov-21, similar to when stocks overall began declining. Since then the Nasdaq has mostly been under the 200-day MA and the RAD has entered a fresh bout of declining since August 2022.</p><p><b>Where are we in the current stage:</b></p><p>From the chart above, it's apparent the current downtrend is the longest time spent below 200-day MA for 13 years, and also the sharpest and longest decline in the RAD in the past 13 years, and the RAD has recently continued declining rather than bottoming out. The last time it was this bearish in 2008/2009, the RAD indicator and Nasdaq spent 5 months bottoming out, before entering into a bull market.<i>Per 2008-2009, once this indicator starts to level out and the Nasdaq regains the 200-day MA, it may be a sign of a real bottom, but it appears we may yet be some time away.</i></p><p>I am not presenting this indicator as a silver bullet, however, it may be helpful:</p><ul><li>As a high frequency indicator (economic indicators and earnings are much more lagging). It is especially interesting to see despite the large declines in U.S. equities during the March 2020 coronavirus panic, U.S. regular trading hour session investors were more interested in buying equities than the afterhours investors, which may have been a good indicator of where the smart money was going when every other price-based indicator would have gone haywire, economic data would not be known for months and the news implied the apocalypse was just days away.</li><li>The reader is encouraged to do his own iterations, I'm sure there can be fancier iterations (e.g., adding volatility, cross-checking with other indicators, etc.), I will just show the bare-bones analysis in this article without any bells and whistles.</li></ul><p><b>Appendix: Calculation methodology of RAD</b></p><ul><li>Calculated average price for the regular trading hours and after hours for each day based on Nasdaq 100 index futures 5-minute data from Apr 2006 (two years before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 to establish a baseline) to mid-Sept 2022.</li><li>Subtracted for the difference and converted into a percentage.</li><li>9:30 AM to 4 PM as U.S. sessions regular trading hours (referred to below as regular trading hours) and all other hours as afterhours.</li><li>The difference is then added cumulatively, so it is easier to see a trend (as there are large gyrations day-to-day, if the daily results are plotted, the trend is less obvious).</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 14:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.The indicator ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138109779","content_text":"SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.The indicator reflects the difference between average prices during regular and afterhours trading and trends down during a bear market (vice versa for bull market).Based on this indicator's performance from 2006 to present, we are currently still in a bear market.During the March 2020 Coronavirus pandemic, this indicator was screaming buy despite the sharp declines in the market during that month.The Nasdaq has experienced several sharp declines since bottoming in 2009, but the right strategy has been to buy the dip each time. We will use Nasdaq 100 futures (which track the Nasdaq 100 index, same as the Invesco QQQ ETF) for our analysis. For simplicity purposes, if we use the 200-day moving average as a benchmark, Nasdaq 100 has been under the 200-day MA for 852 days out of the last 4236 trading days. 2022 so far has seen the most number of days under the 200-day MA since 2008.Days below 200 day MA (Author calc on public info)So this begs the question, is the current dip a buy or a sell? Given that the right move has been to buy for the last 13 years, how can we tell this time?This article is based on an observation: during a downtrend, the Nasdaq 100 index futures are often trading flat or even up before the U.S. equities markets open, and then it suddenly starts to head south during the U.S. session (9:30 AM to 4 PM ET).Based on this observation, I constructed an indicator (which I will call \"Regular/After-hours Divergence Indicator,\" or \"RAD\") using all-day Nasdaq 100 index futures data to show divergence between U.S. session regular hours (i.e., 9:30 AM to 4 PM) and afterhours. For details on how RAD is calculated, please see the appendix at the bottom.I will use the Nasdaq 100 index futures as it has regular and afterhours trading, whereas the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) has more limited afterhours trading data.A positive RAD means that average prices during the regular hours are higher than after hours, vice versa for a negative RAD. The cumulative RAD is shown below (i.e., the daily RAD is added cumulatively). The results are plotted below against the Nasdaq 100.RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.It appears the RAD is trendless or trends positively in a bull market and trends negatively in a bear market/correction. Which means in a bear market, afterhours trading is generally at a higher price before declining during regular hours trading (this is consistent with our observation and feel of how the market usually behaves).It is hard to precisely explain this phenomenon, it could be that:If we combine this with 200-day MA (greyed out areas represent those days/periods where the closing prices were under the 200-day MA), we can see that the sharp moves down in the RAD coincide with the periods where the closing price was below the 200-day MA, while the RAD levelled off or increased when the closing price was above the 200-day MA.Let's break it down into a few major periods and see how the RAD performed in each.Apr 2006-Dec 2009RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.In 2006-2007, both the Nasdaq 100 and the RAD largely trended in the same direction and the RAD hovered around 0% and did not portend the tectonic shift to come.The RAD sharply fell after the September 2008 Lehman shock and continued to fall till bottoming in February 2009 (stocks ultimately bottomed in March 2009). From February 2009 onwards, the RAD largely did not trend though it fluctuated on a day-to-day basis.2010-2014RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.2010 started with a selloff in mid to late 2010. During this period, Nasdaq 100 spent a lot of time oscillating around the 200-day MA as the European debt crisis simmered, but there was not a major negative movement in the RAD and stocks resumed their upward course.2015-2019RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.From 2015-2019, the RAD showed a persistently negative move in Sep-2015 to Mar-2016 but afterwards it did not deteriorate any further and stocks resumed their upward trend. Amazingly, during this entire trade war period, the RAD did not show much of a negative move except in late 2018. Most of the time the RAD oscillated nowhere and stocks went up.2020-presentRAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.This period gets very interesting. Despite a sharp sell-off in March 2020, RAD trended up (meaning regular hours trading had prices higher than afterhours) for most of the period! The RAD was screaming buy while the media was hyping up 100% infection rates on a certain unfortunate cruise ship and Europeans going into lockdown, etc.The RAD started persistently falling in Nov-21, similar to when stocks overall began declining. Since then the Nasdaq has mostly been under the 200-day MA and the RAD has entered a fresh bout of declining since August 2022.Where are we in the current stage:From the chart above, it's apparent the current downtrend is the longest time spent below 200-day MA for 13 years, and also the sharpest and longest decline in the RAD in the past 13 years, and the RAD has recently continued declining rather than bottoming out. The last time it was this bearish in 2008/2009, the RAD indicator and Nasdaq spent 5 months bottoming out, before entering into a bull market.Per 2008-2009, once this indicator starts to level out and the Nasdaq regains the 200-day MA, it may be a sign of a real bottom, but it appears we may yet be some time away.I am not presenting this indicator as a silver bullet, however, it may be helpful:As a high frequency indicator (economic indicators and earnings are much more lagging). It is especially interesting to see despite the large declines in U.S. equities during the March 2020 coronavirus panic, U.S. regular trading hour session investors were more interested in buying equities than the afterhours investors, which may have been a good indicator of where the smart money was going when every other price-based indicator would have gone haywire, economic data would not be known for months and the news implied the apocalypse was just days away.The reader is encouraged to do his own iterations, I'm sure there can be fancier iterations (e.g., adding volatility, cross-checking with other indicators, etc.), I will just show the bare-bones analysis in this article without any bells and whistles.Appendix: Calculation methodology of RADCalculated average price for the regular trading hours and after hours for each day based on Nasdaq 100 index futures 5-minute data from Apr 2006 (two years before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 to establish a baseline) to mid-Sept 2022.Subtracted for the difference and converted into a percentage.9:30 AM to 4 PM as U.S. sessions regular trading hours (referred to below as regular trading hours) and all other hours as afterhours.The difference is then added cumulatively, so it is easier to see a trend (as there are large gyrations day-to-day, if the daily results are plotted, the trend is less obvious).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910929487,"gmtCreate":1663548960449,"gmtModify":1676537287368,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910929487","repostId":"1100137906","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100137906","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663560476,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100137906?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 12:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Needs To Break The Market At This Week's Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100137906","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting.The communications must be crystal","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting.</li><li>The communications must be crystal to avoid a repeat of the July disaster.</li><li>The Fed needs the market to cave in to its demands.</li></ul><p>No matter how much the Fed has tried, the market still doesn't believe how serious the Fed is about bringing down inflation. The Fed has consistently said that it plans to raise rates to restrictive territory and hold rates there until there are clear signs that inflation is heading lower.</p><p>Yes, the Fed made a massive attempt to rein in the markets at Jackson Hole and hammered the point further in the days after Jackson Hole. Now, it needs to seal the deal. Yes, the market has started to buckle, but not enough. Fed Funds futures have repriced rapidly and now see terminal rates hitting nearly 4.4% by April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/747885c2bf42aec7edd0434de89ff03d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>Markets Still Don't Believe The Fed</b></p><p>But still, the market is pricing in rate cuts by the end of 2023 and sees rates falling back to 4%. So yes, while the market agrees that rates need to go higher, it still believes the Fed will be cutting rates by around 40 bps by the end of next year. The spread between the April 2023 Fed Fund futures and December 2023 contracts on August 25 was 32 bps. The current spread suggests the market believes the Fed may be more aggressive in cutting rates next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f8a05f27f21f9f58f44993c24f0daa1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Sure, the Fed is making progress on higher rates, but the market doesn't believe that the Fed will be holding rates at the terminal level. That is where the Fed needs to finish what it started at Jackson Hole, and the best place for the Fed to deliver that final blow will be in its Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plots.</p><p><b>Higher For Longer</b></p><p>If the Fed wants to make its point clear, it will need to ensure that it not only sees rates getting to 4.4% or higher by the middle of 2023 but that it sees rates staying there for all of 2023 and perhaps through 2024. That is the message the Fed needs to send the market so that the Fed Funds futures begin repricing with that terminal rate holding at 4.4% so that the back of the futures curve lifts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a3147d1203e0785cbe84a8f5761d45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Mott Capital</p><p>It is a critical message because if the Fed can deliver it, it would help to reprice the Treasury and Real Yield curve, pulling longer-term rates higher. It would help to steepen the yield curve, especially on rates beyond the 2-year, where a clear inversion occurs on both nominal and real yields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/077b423c22c6af690494f068eac8c266\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This curve reshaping would be very bullish for the dollar and help it continue strengthening over the euro, yen, and yuan. Meanwhile, it would be bad news for risk assets, especially stocks, as rising real yields would weigh heavily on equity valuations.</p><p><b>No Room For Error</b></p><p>The Fed can't afford to have the same disaster at the July FOMC meeting, which made financial conditions materially ease. As much as financial conditions have tightened since Jackson Hole, they have not tightened enough. The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and adjusted NFCI is still well below their late June highs, while the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (the measurements are inverted) has also failed to get back to June levels. The Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index is the only index that shows financial conditions have tightened back to their June levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/466b229bd2abeb5cbc959893c58891b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The Fed cannot afford to get further behind the inflation battle and needs rates to continue pushing higher and financial conditions to tighten further. The Fed is still very much behind in bringing inflation down. The Fed Funds rates are profoundly negative against the inflation rate on CPI and PCE measures, including or excluding energy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00da5e8bda75fedfab02d3efed87ff04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p><b>The Fed Needs To Break The Market</b></p><p>This is the Fed's battle, and it needs the market to align with its view if it has any chance of bringing inflation down. Because the Fed can only really move the front of the yield curve, but through communications and projections, it can heavily influence the longer-dated side of the curve, and that is the part of the curve the Fed has struggled the most with.</p><p>So while stocks may rise sharply if the Fed only delivers a 75 bps rate, don't be surprised if that rally fades quickly if the Fed can provide a hawkish message through its forward guidance. That is where the Fed can finally shock the markets and get them to break.</p><p>Because for the first time in many years, it may be the market that finally gives into the Fed, not the Fed giving into the market.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Needs To Break The Market At This Week's Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Needs To Break The Market At This Week's Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-19 12:07 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541678-fed-needs-break-market-this-week-meeting><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting.The communications must be crystal to avoid a repeat of the July disaster.The Fed needs the market to cave in to its demands.No matter...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541678-fed-needs-break-market-this-week-meeting\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541678-fed-needs-break-market-this-week-meeting","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100137906","content_text":"SummaryThe Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting.The communications must be crystal to avoid a repeat of the July disaster.The Fed needs the market to cave in to its demands.No matter how much the Fed has tried, the market still doesn't believe how serious the Fed is about bringing down inflation. The Fed has consistently said that it plans to raise rates to restrictive territory and hold rates there until there are clear signs that inflation is heading lower.Yes, the Fed made a massive attempt to rein in the markets at Jackson Hole and hammered the point further in the days after Jackson Hole. Now, it needs to seal the deal. Yes, the market has started to buckle, but not enough. Fed Funds futures have repriced rapidly and now see terminal rates hitting nearly 4.4% by April.BloombergMarkets Still Don't Believe The FedBut still, the market is pricing in rate cuts by the end of 2023 and sees rates falling back to 4%. So yes, while the market agrees that rates need to go higher, it still believes the Fed will be cutting rates by around 40 bps by the end of next year. The spread between the April 2023 Fed Fund futures and December 2023 contracts on August 25 was 32 bps. The current spread suggests the market believes the Fed may be more aggressive in cutting rates next year.BloombergSure, the Fed is making progress on higher rates, but the market doesn't believe that the Fed will be holding rates at the terminal level. That is where the Fed needs to finish what it started at Jackson Hole, and the best place for the Fed to deliver that final blow will be in its Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plots.Higher For LongerIf the Fed wants to make its point clear, it will need to ensure that it not only sees rates getting to 4.4% or higher by the middle of 2023 but that it sees rates staying there for all of 2023 and perhaps through 2024. That is the message the Fed needs to send the market so that the Fed Funds futures begin repricing with that terminal rate holding at 4.4% so that the back of the futures curve lifts.Mott CapitalIt is a critical message because if the Fed can deliver it, it would help to reprice the Treasury and Real Yield curve, pulling longer-term rates higher. It would help to steepen the yield curve, especially on rates beyond the 2-year, where a clear inversion occurs on both nominal and real yields.BloombergThis curve reshaping would be very bullish for the dollar and help it continue strengthening over the euro, yen, and yuan. Meanwhile, it would be bad news for risk assets, especially stocks, as rising real yields would weigh heavily on equity valuations.No Room For ErrorThe Fed can't afford to have the same disaster at the July FOMC meeting, which made financial conditions materially ease. As much as financial conditions have tightened since Jackson Hole, they have not tightened enough. The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) and adjusted NFCI is still well below their late June highs, while the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (the measurements are inverted) has also failed to get back to June levels. The Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index is the only index that shows financial conditions have tightened back to their June levels.BloombergThe Fed cannot afford to get further behind the inflation battle and needs rates to continue pushing higher and financial conditions to tighten further. The Fed is still very much behind in bringing inflation down. The Fed Funds rates are profoundly negative against the inflation rate on CPI and PCE measures, including or excluding energy.BloombergThe Fed Needs To Break The MarketThis is the Fed's battle, and it needs the market to align with its view if it has any chance of bringing inflation down. Because the Fed can only really move the front of the yield curve, but through communications and projections, it can heavily influence the longer-dated side of the curve, and that is the part of the curve the Fed has struggled the most with.So while stocks may rise sharply if the Fed only delivers a 75 bps rate, don't be surprised if that rally fades quickly if the Fed can provide a hawkish message through its forward guidance. That is where the Fed can finally shock the markets and get them to break.Because for the first time in many years, it may be the market that finally gives into the Fed, not the Fed giving into the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937639203,"gmtCreate":1663412859402,"gmtModify":1676537267512,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937639203","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by "mining". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new "proof-of-stake" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming "mining"</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a "hard fork" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been "teased" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.</p><p>Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937639604,"gmtCreate":1663412837308,"gmtModify":1676537267511,"author":{"id":"3575357409343512","authorId":"3575357409343512","name":"Lalalanana","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc07195419b4d0af32837fd05440883","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575357409343512","authorIdStr":"3575357409343512"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937639604","repostId":"1129633132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129633132","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663378125,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129633132?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 09:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129633132","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.</li><li>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.</li><li>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.</li><li>How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?</li><li>Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f531f7b392a181968ec72c4a8f89f8e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p>The Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by "mining". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new "proof-of-stake" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.</p><p><b>Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming "mining"</b></p><p>The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4872c823bfeb3e06182d2d3f6ab87879\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Ethereum.org</span></p><p>Mining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.</p><p>In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.</p><p>Some miners may go to work on a "hard fork" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.</p><p>Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.</p><p><b>Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales</b></p><p>Following Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.</p><p>The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.</p><p>However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe36f2d53f47c0d7e5cdf964d09c67fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BinInfoCharts</span></p><p>This implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.</p><p>This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8223bcd7d3f44c30f5c60970c616fe0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>Note that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.</p><p><b>The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, ugly</b></p><p>The model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.</p><p>If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c00465fed542c67659f55786fcdf366b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>The model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.</p><p>This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.</p><p>As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac0a909d1edae7870adea14e3f987d28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>So the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.</p><p><b>How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?</b></p><p>Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5990337b62c49447e21da39a199e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Nvidia</span></p><p>Various tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.</p><p>The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.</p><p>Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.</p><p>Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.</p><p>Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been "teased" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.</p><p>The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.</p><p>Since<i>none</i>of the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.</p><p>Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.</p><p>Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.</p><p><b>Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?</b></p><p>Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?</p><p>When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.</p><p>If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.</p><p>In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.</p><p>Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.</p><p>Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8026f845d3af92219bdc2bb1bc67be19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Mark Hibben</span></p><p>According to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.</p><p>Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.</p><p>Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Ethereum Merge Unleashes A Tsunami Of Used Graphics Cards\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-17 09:28 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541459-nvidia-ethereum-merge-unleashes-tsunami-of-used-graphics-cards?source=content_type%3Areact%7Csection%3AAll%7Csection_asset%3AAnalysis%7Cfirst_level_url%3Asymbol%7Cbutton%3ATitle%7Clock_status%3ANo%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129633132","content_text":"SummaryEthereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy-consuming “mining”.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card sales accounts for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia’s sales will be, at best, ugly.How will the Merge affect Nvidia’s expected RTX 40 series launch?Investor takeaways: Will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?vzphotos/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesThe Ethereum Foundation, which manages the Ether cryptocurrency, has announced completion of what it calls the Merge, whereby validation of new blocks of transactions no longer takes place by \"mining\". The millions of high-end graphics cards that are used for this will no longer beneeded for the new \"proof-of-stake\" approach, so that most of these will likely find their way into the used card market. This will depress demand for new graphics cards just when Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is set to announce its next-generation GeForce 40 series.Ethereum completes its transition to proof-of-stake, ending lucrative and energy consuming \"mining\"The transition of Ethereum to proof-of-stake was called the Merge because it involved combining the parallel block chain that was already using proof-of-stake experimentally with the main block chain that was using traditional mining, called proof-of-work. This is shown below in this diagram from the Ethereum Foundation:Ethereum.orgMining was really just transaction processing, in which a number of Ethereum transactions would be bundled into a block and encrypted. But the encryption process was made artificially difficult, requiring millions of high end graphics cards in the mining pool to process a block in a reasonable period of time.In the new proof-of-stake approach, the artificial difficulty is removed, so that hardware requirements can be met by almost any computer, ending the need for graphics card processing and the attendant energy consumption. Ethereum claims this will reduce energy consumption by 99.95%.Some miners may go to work on a \"hard fork\" of Ethereum, in effect, a secession of the currency into a new one called EthereumPOW. This currency will continue to use proof-of-work, but it's unclear whether mining this will be profitable.Probably, the vast majority of cards will go on the used card market and be sold on venues such as eBay.Correcting the Ethereum hash rate model to account for used graphics card salesFollowing Nvidia's revised guidance for its fiscal 2023 Q2, I realized that I needed to revise my model of Ethereum-related sales of graphics cards. I had published an article detailing the model in July.The problem with the model was that it only accounted for sales into the Ethereum mining pool when the pool was adding capacity, i.e., adding new cards to the pool. It worked fine as long as the pool was still growing.However, starting in mid-May, the Ethereum mining pool hash rate, a measure of mining capacity, started to decline, as shown in the following chart from BitInfoCharts:BinInfoChartsThis implied that a substantial number of graphics cards were being removed from the pool. If I assumed that these cards were comparable to current generation Nvidia and AMD (AMD) cards, then it was reasonable to assume that every used card sold was a lost new card sale.This turned out to account very well for Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results, if we assume that a normal quarterly revenue in Nvidia's Gaming segment is about $2.5 billion. During the Fiscal Q2 conference call, Nvidia specifically claimed that this would be their normal average Gaming segment revenue without crypto. In my spreadsheet calculations, it was easy to calculate the used card effect simply by allowing the change in mining pool cards to go negative, with a negative net revenue for the cards:Mark HibbenNote that the revenue impact doesn't only fall on Nvidia, but the timing of Nvidia's fiscal Q2 lined up better with the fall in Ethereum mining capacity and likely release of cards into the used card market. AMD will likely feel the impact in its Q3 results.The impact of the Merge on Nvidia's sales will be, at best, uglyThe model provides a means of anticipating what happens when the Ethereum hash rate effectively goes to zero, post Merge. And it's not pretty. In an article on August 21, I gave my subscribers a heads-up concerning the impact of the Merge, and I further revised my model results on September 11.If we assume that the entire mining pool consists of newer graphics cards released since September 2020 (RTX 30 series for Nvidia), then Nvidia's RTX 30 series sales for Q3 are completely wiped out, as shown in the spreadsheet calculations extended to Q3:Mark HibbenThe model deducts the hash rate contribution due to Nvidia Crypto Mining Processors (CMP). These cannot be sold into the used graphics cards market, since they lack display outputs.This amounts to assuming that all of the cards used in mining before September 2020 (about when the RTX 30 series launched) were replaced with newer cards. This probably isn't absolutely correct, and the mining pool has consisted of a mixture of older and newer cards.As a lower bound, we can assume that none of the older cards were replaced. These cards would not impact new card sales, since they aren't comparable to current generation cards. The model can deduct these cards from the calculated revenue impact by simply deducting the pre-September 2020 hash rate of 228.2361 terahash/sec (THASH) for the mining pool:Mark HibbenSo the lost revenue impact for Nvidia looks to be in the range of $2-3 billion, and it probably won't fall all in Q3 but be distributed over several quarters. The effect of the Merge is to effectively zero out Nvidia's crypto revenue over time. The revenue made during Ethereum's mining pool expansion is negated by lost revenue post Merge, with the exception of CMP revenue and revenue from older graphics cards that might still have been in the pool at the time of the Merge.How will the Merge affect Nvidia's expected RTX 40 series launch?Nvidia has been expected to announce its GeForce RTX 40 series cards for some time, and Nvidia posted this announcement on its website:NvidiaVarious tech pundits are claiming that this is the worst time for Nvidia to launch a new generation of gaming graphics cards. One important feature expected of the RTX 40 series is support for PCIE 5.0. This could be important in reducing the impact of the Ethereum Merge.The current generation of Nvidia and AMD cards only support PCIE 4.0, the prevailing standard at the time of their introduction in late 2020. PCIE 5.0 will double the communication bandwidth compared to 4.0. It's not clear how critical that will be to gaming performance, but it should eliminate PCIE as a bottleneck, if it ever was.Just as important, new generation CPUs will have to support PCIE 5.0, since the GPU is typically linked directly to the CPU through a built in PCIE 16 lane (x16) interface. This is the preferred architecture for maximum gaming performance, and all modern CPUs provide at least 16 lanes of PCIE for this purpose.Intel (INTC) already supports PCIE 5.0 in its latest Alder Lake 12th generation Core series of desktop CPUs. Since Alder Lake launched early this year, there have been no PCIE 5.0 graphics cards to take advantage of the interface, but the current installed base of Alder Lake systems represents a waiting market for the new PCIE 5.0 cards.Unfortunately, I don't have an estimate of Alder Lake sales, so I have no idea what the size of that market might be. Current generation AMD Ryzen 5000 series desktop CPUs only offer PCIE 4.0, but the Ryzen 7000 series has been announced with support for PCIE 5.0, with a launch expected in October. AMD's next-generation GPUs have only been \"teased\" but are expected to support PCIE 5.0 as well.The performance desktop market (mostly gamers) is moving rapidly to PCIE 5.0, and Nvidia will have, at least for a few months, the only graphics cards that support it. Gamers tend to be early adopters and favor the highest performance technology.Sincenoneof the used cards released from the Merge will support PCIE 5.0, this may serve to somewhat isolate the RTX 40 series launch from the impact of the Merge. How much isolation is still unclear.Most of the current population of gaming systems will only support PCIE 4.0, so this part of the market would probably not buy RTX 40 series in any case. Most 40 series sales will go into new system builds.Certainly, the impact of the Merge will be to weaken sales of the RTX 40 series at launch. However, overall sales in the Gaming segment will probably benefit from the launch. The 40 series launch will give the segment a revenue stream it would not have had otherwise.Investor takeaways: will Nvidia need to restate guidance for this quarter?Nvidia guided to revenue of $5.9 billion for fiscal Q3 during the Q2 conference call, and this implies revenue in the gaming segment of about $1 billion. Did Nvidia account for the Merge in their guidance?When asked specifically about the impact of the Merge, Nvidia management had no comment, and professed an inability to account for the crypto impact. The guidance was claimed to be due to a retail channel inventory glut.If Nvidia really wasn't accounting for the Merge, then almost certainly it will need to restate guidance for Q3. Probably, the RTX 40 series launch will not be enough to provide the roughly $1 billion in Gaming segment revenue.In my Nvidia integrated financial model, I'm assuming a $3 billion hit due to the Merge and another $1 billion due to inventory correction. In the model, this is distributed over the next four quarters from fiscal 2023 Q3 to fiscal 2024 Q2, with Gaming segment sales only starting to recover in fiscal 2024 Q3.Despite this, I'm still modeling growth in the all-important Data Center segment. Nvidia's next-generation data center accelerator, the Hopper H100, is testing out to be very impressive and is in production now with deliveries expected by the end of the calendar year.Hopper should ensure continued growth in the Data Center segment, and the advent of Grace, Nvidia's ARM architecture CPU for the data center, should further enhance growth. Data Center growth largely compensates for revenue declines expected in Gaming for this year and next, according to the model:Mark HibbenAccording to my long-term Discounted Cash Flow model, Nvidia has a fair value of $192. I consider Nvidia's future to be very bright, despite the impact of crypto in the near term.Currently, I have Nvidia rated at Hold, and Nvidia has been a relatively small part of the Rethink Technology portfolio since selling most of my Nvidia shares (at a substantial profit) in April. I'm pretty close to upgrading Nvidia to Buy, but I'm waiting to see if the Merge (and possible guidance restatement) will drive Nvidia's price even lower.Also, I'm waiting to see what Nvidia has to offer in its new 40 series on September 20. Nvidia has consistently set the performance bar in the desktop graphics card market. Most likely, Nvidia is already undervalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}