Huat99

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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-15
      $Adobe(ADBE)$ 🎨 Adobe — Inflection Analysis The stock is pricing in an AI death spiral. The numbers say otherwise. Adobe has stabilized and is quietly improving, with cash flow, margins, and ARR all decoupling from the bearish AI-disruption narrative. 📊 Inflection status: STABILIZING → IMPROVING Fundamentals are turning while sentiment remains fearful. Atomic signals: • FY25 operating cash flow >$10B, +28% vs FY23 • ARR $25.2B, +11.5% YoY — growth intact • Document Cloud +18% YoY (AI Assistant uptake) • GAAP operating income +29% YoY • FY26 ARR growth guide >10% 💰 Valuation at price: • Price: $303 (14 Jan 2026) • ~17x FY26 GAAP EPS vs >30x historical • Heavy buybacks confirm internal conviction • RPO $22.5B supports cash
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-13
      $ResMed(RMD)$ 😴 ResMed (RMD) — Inflection Hunter Snapshot The market still fears GLP-1 drugs will kill sleep apnea demand. The numbers say otherwise. ResMed is showing a **confirmed positive inflection**, driven by margin expansion and earnings leverage — not hype. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Margins and earnings are accelerating faster than revenue. Atomic evidence: • Revenue +9% YoY to $1.34B (Q1 FY26) • Net income +12% YoY to $348.5M → clear operating leverage • Gross margin expanded to 59.4% (+80bps YoY) • Core Sleep & Breathing revenue +10% YoY ($1.17B) • Dividend raised 13% YoY to $0.60 This directly contradicts the “terminal decline from GLP-1” narrative. 💰 Balance sheet strength: • Cash $1.38B vs debt $668M →
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-13
      $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ 🧩 Astera Labs (ALAB) — Inflection Analysis This is the moment many IPOs fail to reach. Astera Labs has crossed from “AI promise” into **real, GAAP-profitable execution** — and the inflection is now confirmed. ALAB sits at the center of hyperscaler AI clusters, supplying the **connectivity backbone** (retimers, switches, modules) that makes large-scale AI compute actually work. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Profitability, cash flow, and scale efficiency have all flipped. Atomic evidence: • Q3’25 revenue $230.6M, +104% YoY • GAAP net income $91.1M vs loss last year • Diluted EPS $0.50 vs $(0.05) • YTD operating cash flow $224M • Gross margin ~76% while scaling hardware • R&D intensity fell to 34%
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-13
      $DexCom(DXCM)$ 🩺 DexCom (DXCM) — Inflection Analysis DexCom is emerging from its 2024 slowdown — and the growth engine is re-accelerating. After a digestion year marked by channel resets and litigation overhang, DexCom is now benefiting from faster product cycles and an expanded addressable market beyond insulin users. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Direction: Improving (confidence: medium–high) Atomic evidence: • Revenue re-accelerated to +21% YoY (Q3’25) vs +11% FY’24 • Stelo (OTC, non-insulin) launched Aug’24 → major TAM expansion • G7 15-day clearance (Apr’25) restores product parity • Gross margin stabilized and expanded in Q3’25 on volume leverage • 500k–600k net users added in FY’24 (pre-Stelo) This is no longer just a
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-12
      $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ 🧬 Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) — Inflection Analysis HIMS has already crossed the hardest line: profitability. But the next phase depends on how well it replaces GLP-1 tailwinds. After years as a growth-first DTC telehealth platform, HIMS delivered its first full year of net income in FY2024 — confirming a real business inflection. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE (stabilizing) Revenue, margins, and cash flow have all turned sustainable. Atomic evidence: • FY2024 net income $126M vs -$23.5M in FY2023 • Q3’25 revenue $589M, +50% YoY • Monthly revenue per subscriber $80 vs $55 last year • Subscribers 2.47M, +21% YoY • Marketing spend down to ~40% of revenue (operating leverage) This is no l
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-11

      📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis

      $Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$ $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$ This is not a dying cable story. Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns. The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale. Atomic evidence: TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle) Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025 Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025 This is a capital-return machin
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      📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis
    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-10

      🎰Evolution AB (EVO.ST / EVVTY) — Inflection Analysis

      $Evolution AB(EVVTY)$ This looks cheap. But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way. Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**. 📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating. Atomic evidence: Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%** Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking** Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%** European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage This is not a balance-sheet problem. Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital. 💰 V
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      🎰Evolution AB (EVO.ST / EVVTY) — Inflection Analysis
    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-09
      $ServiceNow(NOW)$ ServiceNow's Quiet Transformation: From Boring Back-Office to Autonomous AI Leader Most people still think of ServiceNow as just a platform for managing IT workflows. They are missing the massive pivot happening right now. The company is rapidly transforming into a leader in "Agentic AI"—building AI agents that don't just summarize text, but autonomously complete complex business tasks. The signs of this shift are everywhere: **Massive Demand:** Their backlog of future contracts jumped 36% year-over-year to nearly $20 billion. Big enterprises are hungry for this consolidation. **Cash Machine:** Cash profits surged 48% in the first nine months of 2024 alone. **Betting the Farm on AI:** They have committed a massive $4.8B to
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-08
      $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ Is the AppLovin turnaround real? The data says yes. 🚀 They pulled off a massive pivot from a messy hybrid model to a streamlined AI powerhouse. The timeline of the transformation: 🎮 Phase 1: Struggling hybrid (losing money). 🧠 Phase 2: The AI engine kicks in (profits explode). ✂️ Phase 3: Sold the gaming apps "baggage" to focus. 💰 Phase 4: A pure-play AI advertising giant ($835M net income). The transition is complete.
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    • Huat99Huat99
      ·01-08
      $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Duolingo : The Owl is Printing Cash🦉💸 Is the recent profit explosion real, or just accounting magic? AI looked under the hood. Here is the simple truth: ✦ The "Fake" Spike: That massive profit jump? Most of it was a one-time tax credit. Don't be fooled by the headline number.⚠️ ✦ The Real Gold: The actual business is on fire. Users are more addicted than ever (daily usage is soaring).🔥 ✦ Efficiency: They are spending LESS on marketing while growing FASTER. That is the holy grail of software. ✦ The Verdict: Even without the tax bonus, this is one of the most disciplined companies in the market. Verdict: A Structural Compounder. The hype is backed by math.📈✅
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