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Jiajun98

Posts · 19Posts · 19
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-03-11
  $NASDAQ-100 Index ETF(QQQ)$Buy the dip, us tech wont fail
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-11
  Goooddd
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-10
  Gooddd
  Robinhood-GameStop saga could put spotlight on DC, Wall Street revolving door
  Robinhood has hired several former regulators in recent months As the financial services industry pr
  Robinhood-GameStop saga could put spotlight on DC, Wall Street revolving door
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-10
  Goodd
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-10
  Nice
  The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?
  After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t
  The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-10
  Nice
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-09
  Nice
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
  This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-09
  Nice
  Sorry, this post has been deleted
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-08
  Oh no
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- Jiajun98Jiajun98
  ·2021-02-06
  Like me pls
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$NASDAQ-100 Index ETF(QQQ)$</a>Buy the dip, us tech wont fail","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$NASDAQ-100 Index ETF(QQQ)$</a>Buy the dip, us tech wont fail","text":"$NASDAQ-100 Index ETF(QQQ)$Buy the dip, us tech wont fail","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/321265649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381777147,"gmtCreate":1612997365289,"gmtModify":1704877153670,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goooddd","listText":"Goooddd","text":"Goooddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3097e8ea4f95c46b3468a24dd286cb82","width":"750","height":"2193"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381777147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381936356,"gmtCreate":1612919840675,"gmtModify":1704876005055,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gooddd","listText":"Gooddd","text":"Gooddd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381936356","repostId":"1186040929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186040929","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612861976,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186040929?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 17:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood-GameStop saga could put spotlight on DC, Wall Street revolving door","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186040929","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Robinhood has hired several former regulators in recent months\nAs the financial services industry pr","content":"<p>Robinhood has hired several former regulators in recent months</p>\n<p>As the financial services industry prepares for congressional scrutiny in the coming weeks following the public outcry related to online broker Robinhood’s decision to restrict trading of GameStop Inc.&nbsp;and other stocks, the perception of a cozy relationship between financial regulators and the industry could once again come to the fore.</p>\n<p>Of particular interest will be regulators’ lack of action in recent years in reforming market structure issues — including payment for order flow, or the practice of market makers paying stockbrokers to route customer orders to them — as many of the former regulators responsible for such reforms are now working for firms in the industry that engage in and profit from the practice.</p>\n<p>“We’ve had festering problems for 12 years now of not addressing, acute, pressing market structure issues,” said James Cox, law professor at Duke University, who specializes in corporate and securities law.</p>\n<p>Cox said the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority should have done more in recent years to significantly&nbsp;rein in the practice of payment for order flow&nbsp;and to set new rules about the types of orders market makers and stock exchanges can accept from traders that can give them informational advantages over individual investors.</p>\n<p>Robinhood earned more than $190 million in revenue from payment for order flow in the fourth quarter of 2020,according to regulatory filings&nbsp;and made more such revenue per trade than competitors like E-Trade and Charles Schwab. Robinhood did not respond to requests for comment.</p>\n<p>Government watchdogs have long decried the practice of regulators leaving government to work for companies they once regulated, and Robinhood has been one of the most aggressive deployers of this tactic in recent months,hiring&nbsp;former SEC Commissioner Dan Gallagher to be its chief legal officer last May.</p>\n<p>In addition to Gallagher, the broker has recently brought on other SEC alums&nbsp;Lucas Moskowitz&nbsp;and Janet Broeckel, according to LinkedIn. It also brought in Andrew Ceresney, who served as the SEC’s director of the division of enforcement from 2013 to 2017, as outside counsel to help its&nbsp;ettle charges&nbsp;that it misled investors about the practice of payment for order flow and that it cost investors $34.1 million by failing to execute trades at the best price.</p>\n<p>Robinhood settled the matter after paying a $65 million fine, without admitting nor denying fault. The company said in December that “the settlement relates to historical practices that do not reflect Robinhood today” and that it is now fully transparent with customers about its revenue streams and vigilant about getting them the best prices on securities.</p>\n<p>“Firms understand that their business model requires a soft touch from regulators, and the best way to ensure that is to have financial connections with regulators associated with both political parties,” said Jeff Hauser, executive director of The Revolving Door Project, which aims to track corporate political influence.</p>\n<p>Citadel Securities, which paid more to Robinhood for order flow than any other firm in the fourth quarter of last year, has also been a landing place for former regulators. Stephan Luparello, former director of the trading and markets division, which oversees market structure issues, served as its general counsel since 2017. Citadel declined to comment for this article.</p>\n<p>Market structure issues, including payment for order flow, were last in the public spotlight in 2014, when former Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan held hearings on it and recommended regulators ban it.</p>\n<p>Regulators have made some reforms since then, with the SEC requiring brokers to provide greater disclosure of payment to order flow revenues, while Finra has stepped up enforcement against brokers who do not regularly analyze their orders to make sure customers, on average, get the best price and execution of their orders.</p>\n<p>But critics say they have not gone far enough, and that payment for order flow is a byproduct of a system of wasteful competition between market makers for information and faster access to the major stock exchanges.</p>\n<p>Peter Van Doren, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and editor of the journal Regulation, told MarketWatch that “the payments for order flow is part of this high-frequency trading system where there’s an arms race” to build faster trading systems ever closer to the major exchanges, in order to arbitrage slight differences in market prices and those listed on exchanges.</p>\n<p>He pointed to a study of activity on the London Stock Exchange, which showed that if market makers didn’t have to engage in this competition, they’d be able to provide prices that save investors $5 billion globally every year.</p>\n<p>Other experts, however, say that the lack of action on payment for order flow was simply because it’s not clear the practice harms individual investors. Indeed, the cost of individual trades and bid-ask spreads have come down dramatically in the thirty years that this practice has been around, Gabriel Rauterberg, an expert on capital markets at Michigan Law told MarketWatch.</p>\n<p>“It’s seems deeply weird that if you’re a retail trader, your order doesn’t go to a stock exchange, but that your broker gets paid to send it to a market maker,” he said, but added that this appearance of corruption is not backed up by evidence of retail traders being cheated on a large scale.</p>\n<p>Instead of regulators moving to ban the practice, which would cause widespread, costly disruption to the entire industry, regulators could mandate that brokers pass on all payment for order flow to their customers through price improvement, Rauterberg proposed.</p>\n<p>“Education doesn’t seem to alter people’s sense that there’s something unseemly about this,” he said. “Eliminating the appearance of a conflict of interest would go a long way for investor confidence.”</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood-GameStop saga could put spotlight on DC, Wall Street revolving door</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood-GameStop saga could put spotlight on DC, Wall Street revolving door\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 17:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/robinhood-gamestop-saga-could-put-spotlight-on-dc-wall-street-revolving-door-11612817586?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Robinhood has hired several former regulators in recent months\nAs the financial services industry prepares for congressional scrutiny in the coming weeks following the public outcry related to online ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/robinhood-gamestop-saga-could-put-spotlight-on-dc-wall-street-revolving-door-11612817586?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/robinhood-gamestop-saga-could-put-spotlight-on-dc-wall-street-revolving-door-11612817586?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1186040929","content_text":"Robinhood has hired several former regulators in recent months\nAs the financial services industry prepares for congressional scrutiny in the coming weeks following the public outcry related to online broker Robinhood’s decision to restrict trading of GameStop Inc. and other stocks, the perception of a cozy relationship between financial regulators and the industry could once again come to the fore.\nOf particular interest will be regulators’ lack of action in recent years in reforming market structure issues — including payment for order flow, or the practice of market makers paying stockbrokers to route customer orders to them — as many of the former regulators responsible for such reforms are now working for firms in the industry that engage in and profit from the practice.\n“We’ve had festering problems for 12 years now of not addressing, acute, pressing market structure issues,” said James Cox, law professor at Duke University, who specializes in corporate and securities law.\nCox said the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority should have done more in recent years to significantly rein in the practice of payment for order flow and to set new rules about the types of orders market makers and stock exchanges can accept from traders that can give them informational advantages over individual investors.\nRobinhood earned more than $190 million in revenue from payment for order flow in the fourth quarter of 2020,according to regulatory filings and made more such revenue per trade than competitors like E-Trade and Charles Schwab. Robinhood did not respond to requests for comment.\nGovernment watchdogs have long decried the practice of regulators leaving government to work for companies they once regulated, and Robinhood has been one of the most aggressive deployers of this tactic in recent months,hiring former SEC Commissioner Dan Gallagher to be its chief legal officer last May.\nIn addition to Gallagher, the broker has recently brought on other SEC alums Lucas Moskowitz and Janet Broeckel, according to LinkedIn. It also brought in Andrew Ceresney, who served as the SEC’s director of the division of enforcement from 2013 to 2017, as outside counsel to help its ettle charges that it misled investors about the practice of payment for order flow and that it cost investors $34.1 million by failing to execute trades at the best price.\nRobinhood settled the matter after paying a $65 million fine, without admitting nor denying fault. The company said in December that “the settlement relates to historical practices that do not reflect Robinhood today” and that it is now fully transparent with customers about its revenue streams and vigilant about getting them the best prices on securities.\n“Firms understand that their business model requires a soft touch from regulators, and the best way to ensure that is to have financial connections with regulators associated with both political parties,” said Jeff Hauser, executive director of The Revolving Door Project, which aims to track corporate political influence.\nCitadel Securities, which paid more to Robinhood for order flow than any other firm in the fourth quarter of last year, has also been a landing place for former regulators. Stephan Luparello, former director of the trading and markets division, which oversees market structure issues, served as its general counsel since 2017. Citadel declined to comment for this article.\nMarket structure issues, including payment for order flow, were last in the public spotlight in 2014, when former Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan held hearings on it and recommended regulators ban it.\nRegulators have made some reforms since then, with the SEC requiring brokers to provide greater disclosure of payment to order flow revenues, while Finra has stepped up enforcement against brokers who do not regularly analyze their orders to make sure customers, on average, get the best price and execution of their orders.\nBut critics say they have not gone far enough, and that payment for order flow is a byproduct of a system of wasteful competition between market makers for information and faster access to the major stock exchanges.\nPeter Van Doren, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and editor of the journal Regulation, told MarketWatch that “the payments for order flow is part of this high-frequency trading system where there’s an arms race” to build faster trading systems ever closer to the major exchanges, in order to arbitrage slight differences in market prices and those listed on exchanges.\nHe pointed to a study of activity on the London Stock Exchange, which showed that if market makers didn’t have to engage in this competition, they’d be able to provide prices that save investors $5 billion globally every year.\nOther experts, however, say that the lack of action on payment for order flow was simply because it’s not clear the practice harms individual investors. Indeed, the cost of individual trades and bid-ask spreads have come down dramatically in the thirty years that this practice has been around, Gabriel Rauterberg, an expert on capital markets at Michigan Law told MarketWatch.\n“It’s seems deeply weird that if you’re a retail trader, your order doesn’t go to a stock exchange, but that your broker gets paid to send it to a market maker,” he said, but added that this appearance of corruption is not backed up by evidence of retail traders being cheated on a large scale.\nInstead of regulators moving to ban the practice, which would cause widespread, costly disruption to the entire industry, regulators could mandate that brokers pass on all payment for order flow to their customers through price improvement, Rauterberg proposed.\n“Education doesn’t seem to alter people’s sense that there’s something unseemly about this,” he said. “Eliminating the appearance of a conflict of interest would go a long way for investor confidence.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381938487,"gmtCreate":1612919831449,"gmtModify":1704876004569,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goodd","listText":"Goodd","text":"Goodd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381938487","repostId":"1183096042","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381933130,"gmtCreate":1612919604220,"gmtModify":1704876001166,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Nice","listText":"&nbsp;Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381933130","repostId":"1114166601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114166601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612866163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1114166601?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-09 18:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114166601","media":"Barrons","summary":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first t","content":"<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.</p><p>The central concern is that&nbsp;once Treasury yields climb high enough&nbsp;investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries&nbsp;extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark<b>,</b>Wall Street consensus is hard to find:&nbsp;Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.</p><p>Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.</p><p>Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.</p><p>But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.</p><p>Almost 70% of S&amp;P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.</p><p>That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&amp;P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.</p><p>Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&amp;P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.</p><p>Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.</p><p>More important, a 3% return from the S&amp;P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.</p><p>The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.</p><p>In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.</p><p>There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:&nbsp; Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.</p><p>Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.</p><p>Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.</p><p>So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 30-Year Treasury Hit 2%. When Will Yields Start Hurting the Stock Market?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-09 18:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-30-year-treasury-just-hit-2-when-will-they-start-hurting-the-stock-market-51612804834?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114166601","content_text":"After a long grind higher in long-term Treasury yields, the 30-year climbed above 2% for the first time since Covid-19 hit. That has investors asking when the broader trend of rising bond yields will hurt the stock market.The central concern is that once Treasury yields climb high enough investors will want to buy safe bonds instead of stocks or high-yield debt. But it isn’t clear when that will occur, and the 30-year bond carries extra risk of losses as yields keep rising. When it comes to the 10-year note, a more popular benchmark,Wall Street consensus is hard to find: Strategists’ forecasts say 10-year Treasury yields may need to rise only to 1.75%, or as high as 5%, to make them more attractive than those riskier alternatives.Yields on long-term Treasuries have been rising steadily since late August, and more quickly since Nov. 9, whenPfizerand BioNTech announced an effective Covid-19 vaccine. The 30-year yield was hovering near 2% Monday after breaching that level in morning trading—up from 1.6% before the vaccine. The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed as well, rising to 1.2% Monday from 0.8% before the vaccine.Long-term yields had retreated from their morning highs by Monday afternoon amid concerns about Covid-19 vaccine distribution and the pace of global economic reopening, with the 10-year yield off one basis points (hundredth of a percentage point) and the 30-year yield down three basis points.But the expectation remains for yields to keep climbing over coming weeks and months. And a key question is how high yields need to be to dent stock-market returns. Several Wall Street strategists have tackled that puzzle in recent notes.Almost 70% of S&P 500 companies pay a higher yield than the 10-year note, wrote a team led by equity strategist Savita Subramanianin a recent note. That proportion would fall to 40% if companies keep their payouts at current levels and the Treasury yield rises to 1.75% by the end of this year, they found.That could start undermining the attractiveness of stocks as an income play; today the overall dividend yield on the S&P 500 is 1.5%, higher than the 10-year Treasury payout. That has helped offset concerns about valuations that are higher than historical averages.Yet the picture looks far better for stocks from a total-return perspective. The implied long-term return of the S&P 500 is around 3%, the bank’s equity strategists wrote.Wall Street strategists don’t expect the 10-year note to be able to challenge that return soon. In a January outlook piece,Bank of America’sinterest-rate strategists predicted that 3% will be the benchmark yield’s peak during this expansion, implying yields won’t reach those levels until the Fed starts raising interest rates. And according to some of the bank’s valuation models, all else equal, stocks will look cheap compared to Treasuries until yields rise to 5%.More important, a 3% return from the S&P 500 will still outpace akey market gauge of inflation expectations over the next decade. That indicator, called the break-even inflation rate, has been driven higher by improving growth expectations as the U.S. recovers from the Covid-19 crisis. On Monday it hit 2.2%, the highest level since 2014.The 10-year Treasury yield, in contrast, remains below market inflation forecasts over that period, and is expected to stay that way through the end of this year at least. Even higher inflation-adjusted yields may not hurt stocks, wrote Credit Suisse strategist Jonathan Golub in a Feb. 8 note, as the boost stocks get from stronger economic growth should outweigh the bond market’s relative improvement in yield.In another positive for stocks, rising yields aren’t negatively affecting large-cap U.S. companies’ balance sheets. The effective yield on the ICE BofA Corporate Index, a gauge of current borrowing costs for high-rated companies, remains at just 1.9% for a maturity of nearly 12 years. And last year’s record-setting flood of fixed-rate borrowing means that companies won’t need to refinance their debt for years.There is one way that rising rates are negatively affecting at least some stocks:  Investors are less willing to wait for profit growth,Goldman Sachsstrategists wrote in a Feb. 7 note. Stocks that are sensitive to economic growth and “value” stocks that underperformed during the pandemic have outperformed since the 10-year yield climbed above 1%, they found, because investors are discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. The Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) has climbed 14% so far this year.Goldman strategists wrote that a quick jump in Treasury yields would be dangerous for the stock market as a whole. But the bank estimated that real damage would require yields to rise 36 basis points in the span of a month. That looks unlikely, considering the fact that it took yields about three months to climb that far during the latest attention-grabbing move higher.Of course, the rise in yields will likely require some changes in the way that money managers who allocate cash across different markets make their decisions, strategists and investors say. Hedge fund D.E. Shaw recently found that long-term bonds should serve as a betterhedge against declines in the stock marketas yields rise.So bonds will likely become marginally more attractive in coming months. But it isn’t clear that such a shift will be enough to undermine stocks, especially as long-term bond returns are most at risk from rising yields. So while Treasuries could provide a better alternative to stocks some day, that process could take longer than investors might think.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381933096,"gmtCreate":1612919587315,"gmtModify":1704876000843,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/381933096","repostId":"1176373590","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383965467,"gmtCreate":1612831004759,"gmtModify":1704874710525,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383965467","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195153829?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p>\n<p>What GameStop Taught Us</p>\n<p><i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p>\n<p><i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p>\n<p>marketfield.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p>\n<p>What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p>\n<p>That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p>\n<p>—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p>\n<p>Heigh-Ho Silver!</p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p>\n<p><i>The Aden Forecast</i></p>\n<p>adenforecast.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p>\n<p>—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p>\n<p>How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p>\n<p><i>Daily Insights</i></p>\n<p><i>BCA Research</i></p>\n<p><i>bcaresearch.com</i></p>\n<p>Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p>\n<p>A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p>\n<p>A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p>\n<p>—Mathieu Savary and Team</p>\n<p>High-Yield Opportunities</p>\n<p><i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p>\n<p><i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p>\n<p>carret.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p>\n<p>We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p>\n<p>—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p>\n<p>Emerging Markets Blast Off</p>\n<p><i>PCM Report</i></p>\n<p><i>Peak Capital Management</i></p>\n<p>pcmstrategies.com</p>\n<p>Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p>\n<p>What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p>\n<p>In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p>\n<p>—Clint Pekrul</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-08 18:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383962495,"gmtCreate":1612830958417,"gmtModify":1704874709229,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383962495","repostId":"1193450954","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389145620,"gmtCreate":1612745417560,"gmtModify":1704873707437,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b20b655bb0331693815a4033ac6723c","width":"828","height":"879"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/389145620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380780746,"gmtCreate":1612590490085,"gmtModify":1704873119344,"author":{"id":"3553202896337955","authorId":"3553202896337955","name":"Jiajun98","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f3e1a634c19958a9d632690480617e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3553202896337955","idStr":"3553202896337955"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like me pls","listText":"Like me pls","text":"Like me pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380780746","repostId":"2109727286","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}