To The Moon

Recently, movements in the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and commodities have drawn considerable attention from investors. In response to investor requests, Tiger organized an in-person discussion this month with traders who had shared strong historical returns, and invited me to take part. On September 19, I gave users in Hong Kong an in-person presentation on trading techniques titled “From Macro Cycles to Trading Strategies: A Discussion of a 102.5% Historical Cumulative Return.” It was a substantive session. The presentation focused on methods and case studies, not specific investment advice. In this in-person session, I shared some of the ways I observe markets and use trading tools, centered on the theme “Finding Trends Through Macro Analysis, Managing Risk Through Trade-Level Decisio

Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets

With the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike now underway, there is no turning back once the arrow has left the bow. The tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the near term; it may not reverse until a major economic event emerges—such as a recession or a substantial equity-market decline. Accordingly, trading during this period should become more cautious. Should the pace of tightening accelerate, market volatility is likely to increase as well. Over the weekend, I held an in-person discussion with Tiger users in Hong Kong. Based on my U.S. dollar cycle model, this round of Fed tightening is a landmark event signaling that the dollar cycle has entered a new phase. Given widening interest-rate differentials, we may subsequently face an environment of accelerated U.S. dollar appreciation.

Last week’s CPI release brought market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike into much sharper alignment. Following the euro area’s earlier rate increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise in core CPI, markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September. Although core CPI came in marginally above expectations, the overall reading was not excessively strong. In particular, core CPI has not accelerated significantly even with oil prices approaching USD 100 per barrel. The market also generally expects the Fed’s tightening path to remain relatively gradual. As a result, a rate hike this week is largely priced in. Conversely, if the Fed unexpectedly leaves rates unchanged, the decision could be interpreted as a positive surprise and potentially

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the outlook for gold, Bitcoin, and offshore RMB amid expectations for higher interest rates. The core of this session was how to assess the direction of these assets through cross-asset correlations, while also covering trading strategy execution and adjustments to moving average parameters. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> 空前的高收益率壓力下，為什麼比特幣的低位機會卻很值得關注？ Next, I will summarize the key information and trading-related views from the session, so that readers who did not have time to join can quickly unders

Last week’s note highlighted the need for caution around the nonfarm payrolls report. The data had become more difficult to forecast than usual because payroll figures have been revised frequently in recent years, increasing the likelihood of surprises and larger market swings. The result was indeed a blowout: U.S. Department of Labor data showed that nonfarm employment surged by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the market expectation of 55,000. This exceptionally strong report once again disrupted the market’s expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The market had previously scaled back expectations of a September rate hike, but the release put rate-hike expectations back in the driver’s seat. The probability of a Fed rate increase in September has now returned to roughly a 60/40 split.

Late August is typically when the world’s central banks hold a major annual gathering. The Federal Reserve—the “central bank of the world,” as it is sometimes described—is the central figure at the event, and remarks from the Fed Chair are often viewed as a briefing to central banks around the world on the Fed’s policy path. At present, the financial market’s primary concern is whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and, if so, when. That is why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks last week had a significant impact on market expectations. The most direct result was that, following Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole on August 28, 2026, the interest-rate futures-implied probability of a September rate hike rose from approximately 35% the previous day to nearly 60%. A rate hike

Last night, in a futures livestream on the Tiger platform, I shared my latest views on the movements of gold, equity indices, and the U.S. dollar following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement on Treasury bond purchases. The core of this session was how to assess, through correlations across different asset classes, whether the market has shifted from a range-bound environment into a new trend phase. Those who were unable to attend may watch the replay of our video course here: >>> Could the U.S. Treasury’s Aggressive Market Support Backfire? Three Ways to Track the Current Market Next, I will summarize the key information and

While the market remained focused on the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the U.S. Treasury released a surprising announcement last week. The Treasury announced that it would “at least double” the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for Treasury securities maturing in 10 to 30 years, raising the cap for each buyback from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion. Relative to the USD 31 trillion U.S. Treasury market, this buyback volume is negligible. Nevertheless, the Treasury’s move conveyed several messages to the market. First, long-term bond yields are too high, and the Treasury intends to exert some control over them. Second, Treasury yields around 5% may represent a psychological threshold for the U.S. Treasury; if yields deviate too far from that level, more fo

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid