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- AllIn888AllIn888
  ·2023-08-14
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$
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- AllIn888AllIn888
  ·2023-01-13
  66666
  Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?
  目前的预期较为乐观。
  Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?
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- AllIn888AllIn888
  ·2023-01-13
  666666
  Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?
  目前的预期较为乐观。
  Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?
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- AllIn888AllIn888
  ·2023-01-13
  6666666
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- AllIn888AllIn888
  ·2023-01-13
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f7f1e85a2c4ad471c0b90a6ed9f19b","width":"1125","height":"1476"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/208886334300320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626045063,"gmtCreate":1673596181253,"gmtModify":1676538861996,"author":{"id":"3498000812601546","authorId":"3498000812601546","name":"AllIn888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe543d0b5fe2e7bca37915932c90d0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498000812601546","idStr":"3498000812601546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"66666","listText":"66666","text":"66666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626045063","repostId":"1125983557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125983557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673516462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125983557?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-12 17:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125983557","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前的预期较为乐观。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The CPI in the United States has slowed down more than expected for two consecutive months, bringing the hope to the market that inflation will cool down rapidly. Tonight, the \"CPI release day\" in the United States will hit again, and the current expectation is relatively optimistic, so will tonight's data continue to be a \"big surprise\" for the market?</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the December CPI. Economists generally expect,<b>The overall CPI in December will rise by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than the 7.1% increase in November, and will fall by 0.1% month-on-month, which will be the first negative month-on-month in three years; Core CPI is expected to rise 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6% last month, and 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.2%.</b></p><p>This data is the last major economic report of the Federal Reserve before the interest rate meeting from January 31st to February 1st. The data performance may determine whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike 25BP or 50BP at the beginning of next month.</p><p>According to the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool, fed funds futures traders now expect a 77% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in February and a 68% chance of another rate hike in March, with the final value of interest rates rising to 4.75-5% by mid-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e0e7b6b26b5c4eccf4032de1b5ef23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The sales and trading department of JPMorgan Chase believes that the CPI data in December may be lower than expected, which will help US stocks continue the recent bear market rebound. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 1.5%-2% on the day of the data release.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that due to the suspected breach that occurred last month, many traders keep a close eye on trades before the data is released.</p><p>Gasoline prices fell sharply, inflation in core commodities and health services remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken</p><p>According to the analysis and forecast of many institutions, the overall downward trend of CPI will be mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p>Li Zhao of CICC and others predict that the price of gasoline in the United States will fall by 11% month-on-month in December, which is an important reason for the negative inflation.</p><p>Luke Tilley, chief economist at the Wilmington Trust in the United States, said a 12% decline in gasoline prices and other energy prices in December would help push inflation down.</p><p><b>UBS economist Alan Detmeister expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.16% on a seasonally adjusted basis (-0.2% when rounded) in December, which will be the weakest month for CPI month-on-month since April 2020, when gasoline prices plunged by 20%.</b></p><p>Aichi Amemiya, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, forecasts that energy prices could fall sharply by 5.1% month-over-month, with gasoline falling 9.8%,<b>While food prices are likely to remain strong, rising 0.6%</b>。 Among them, the still-tight labor market and wage growth suggest that out-of-home food prices will also rise steadily by 0.6%.</p><p>Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, expects that lower gasoline prices and higher food prices will make the overall CPI fall by 0.06% month-on-month and 6.43% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f98eb1ae0adb33c02281406588eddfa\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inside the core CPI,</b>Goldman Sachs mainly forecasted three key areas, namely new and used cars (core commodities), airfare prices (core services), tenant rents and owner-equivalent rents (core services), the bank wrote in its forecast report:</p><p>First of all, we<b>New (-0.5%) and used (-1.6%) prices are expected to fall, reflecting increased promotional incentives for car dealers and continued declines in used car auction prices.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecac74f3e96ac48b22883bb5730ccdd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Secondly, we expect lower oil prices to lead to<b>Airfare prices dropped 2%</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3844181ebb6c2e00066c5ea88dd3b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Third, we expect housing inflation to continue to grow at a slower pace in this report as declining rents for new tenant rentals begin to offset high-running sustained tenant rental rents,<b>Tenant rents will increase by 0.67% month-on-month, and owner-equivalent rent (OER) will increase by 0.64% month-on-month.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686efce155efbb68b4e48ed176542bb4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nomura expects core commodity inflation to fall 0.7% month-over-month, with used car prices falling the most, with a forecast 3.6% month-over-month decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2486078097a4dd48b4aa929cf0db8924\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Among the major investment banks, Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, had the relatively highest forecast, predicting a 5.2% drop in energy prices in December, but the decline was largely offset by a 0.5% rise in food prices and a 0.34% rise in core inflation.</b></p><p>Feroli forecasts a modest rise in major core inflation in December, with tenant rents rising by 0.72% in December, while owner-equivalent rents will rise by 0.66%,<b>Health service prices have been falling recently, and the bank expects this downward trend to continue into December, with another 0.5% decline</b>。</p><p>Feroli expects used car prices to fall 0.7% and new car prices to fall 0.1%, not as much as Goldman Sachs forecast.</p><p>Investors are already expecting the Fed to rate hike 25bp next month</p><p>After the U.S. CPI slowed more than expected for two consecutive months, investors hope that this inflation data will provide more support for the view that inflation has peaked and push the Federal Reserve to further slow down its rate hike.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that although Powell made it clear that no interest rate cut is expected in 2023, the magnitude of the rate hike announced at the meeting in February next year will depend on economic data, and most Fed officials hinted that it is possible to rate hike 50 basis points in February.</p><p>However, last Friday's non-farm data showed that the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market was easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation could cool down in the future.</p><p>After the non-farm data was released, the interest rate market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February to rise.<b>Currently, with upbeat December inflation expectations, markets expect Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75-5.00% in March and will remain at that level until November this year, when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.</b></p><p>But,<b>Given some risks, interest rates could be higher if the inflation data does not show substantial progress.</b></p><p>Will the market continue to \"surprise\" tonight?</p><p>The Andrew Tyler team at JPMorgan outlined their range of U.S. CPI forecasts in December, with probabilities, as well as forecasting the trend of U.S. stocks under different scenarios:</p><p>If the CPI is below 6.4%, the probability of this situation is about 20%, then the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 3% to 3.5%; For the bond market, unless the data is significantly lower than expected, such as CPI below 6%, the trend of the U.S. bond market will be moderate. If the CPI is in the 6.4% to 6.6% range, the probability of this happening is about 65%, and the S&P 500 will rise by 1.5% to 2%. Given the trend before the CPI data is released, the initial surge may fade throughout the session. If the CPI exceeds 6.6%, the probability of this happening is about 15%, and the bond market may reprice the final value of interest rates and push up bond yields, and the S&P 500 index will fall 2.5%-3%. If the CPI is above 6.8%, it may shock investors, and the probability of this happening is extremely small.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985a36de141baeb1d71a6d4faedfc13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tyler's team expects that the possibility that the upcoming data will be 0.1% different from the market consensus expectation is almost two-thirds, and it will be biased to the lower side. \"This should help the US stock market rebound, but as long as the Fed continues to be in the rate hike cycle, we will remain cautious.\"</p><p>Tyler also noted that his scenario analysis is \"biased bullish based on positions that could lead to overreaction by short covering dovish inflation data.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-12 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The CPI in the United States has slowed down more than expected for two consecutive months, bringing the hope to the market that inflation will cool down rapidly. Tonight, the \"CPI release day\" in the United States will hit again, and the current expectation is relatively optimistic, so will tonight's data continue to be a \"big surprise\" for the market?</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the December CPI. Economists generally expect,<b>The overall CPI in December will rise by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than the 7.1% increase in November, and will fall by 0.1% month-on-month, which will be the first negative month-on-month in three years; Core CPI is expected to rise 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6% last month, and 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.2%.</b></p><p>This data is the last major economic report of the Federal Reserve before the interest rate meeting from January 31st to February 1st. The data performance may determine whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike 25BP or 50BP at the beginning of next month.</p><p>According to the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool, fed funds futures traders now expect a 77% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in February and a 68% chance of another rate hike in March, with the final value of interest rates rising to 4.75-5% by mid-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e0e7b6b26b5c4eccf4032de1b5ef23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The sales and trading department of JPMorgan Chase believes that the CPI data in December may be lower than expected, which will help US stocks continue the recent bear market rebound. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 1.5%-2% on the day of the data release.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that due to the suspected breach that occurred last month, many traders keep a close eye on trades before the data is released.</p><p>Gasoline prices fell sharply, inflation in core commodities and health services remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken</p><p>According to the analysis and forecast of many institutions, the overall downward trend of CPI will be mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p>Li Zhao of CICC and others predict that the price of gasoline in the United States will fall by 11% month-on-month in December, which is an important reason for the negative inflation.</p><p>Luke Tilley, chief economist at the Wilmington Trust in the United States, said a 12% decline in gasoline prices and other energy prices in December would help push inflation down.</p><p><b>UBS economist Alan Detmeister expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.16% on a seasonally adjusted basis (-0.2% when rounded) in December, which will be the weakest month for CPI month-on-month since April 2020, when gasoline prices plunged by 20%.</b></p><p>Aichi Amemiya, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, forecasts that energy prices could fall sharply by 5.1% month-over-month, with gasoline falling 9.8%,<b>While food prices are likely to remain strong, rising 0.6%</b>。 Among them, the still-tight labor market and wage growth suggest that out-of-home food prices will also rise steadily by 0.6%.</p><p>Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, expects that lower gasoline prices and higher food prices will make the overall CPI fall by 0.06% month-on-month and 6.43% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f98eb1ae0adb33c02281406588eddfa\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inside the core CPI,</b>Goldman Sachs mainly forecasted three key areas, namely new and used cars (core commodities), airfare prices (core services), tenant rents and owner-equivalent rents (core services), the bank wrote in its forecast report:</p><p>First of all, we<b>New (-0.5%) and used (-1.6%) prices are expected to fall, reflecting increased promotional incentives for car dealers and continued declines in used car auction prices.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecac74f3e96ac48b22883bb5730ccdd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Secondly, we expect lower oil prices to lead to<b>Airfare prices dropped 2%</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3844181ebb6c2e00066c5ea88dd3b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Third, we expect housing inflation to continue to grow at a slower pace in this report as declining rents for new tenant rentals begin to offset high-running sustained tenant rental rents,<b>Tenant rents will increase by 0.67% month-on-month, and owner-equivalent rent (OER) will increase by 0.64% month-on-month.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686efce155efbb68b4e48ed176542bb4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nomura expects core commodity inflation to fall 0.7% month-over-month, with used car prices falling the most, with a forecast 3.6% month-over-month decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2486078097a4dd48b4aa929cf0db8924\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Among the major investment banks, Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, had the relatively highest forecast, predicting a 5.2% drop in energy prices in December, but the decline was largely offset by a 0.5% rise in food prices and a 0.34% rise in core inflation.</b></p><p>Feroli forecasts a modest rise in major core inflation in December, with tenant rents rising by 0.72% in December, while owner-equivalent rents will rise by 0.66%,<b>Health service prices have been falling recently, and the bank expects this downward trend to continue into December, with another 0.5% decline</b>。</p><p>Feroli expects used car prices to fall 0.7% and new car prices to fall 0.1%, not as much as Goldman Sachs forecast.</p><p>Investors are already expecting the Fed to rate hike 25bp next month</p><p>After the U.S. CPI slowed more than expected for two consecutive months, investors hope that this inflation data will provide more support for the view that inflation has peaked and push the Federal Reserve to further slow down its rate hike.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that although Powell made it clear that no interest rate cut is expected in 2023, the magnitude of the rate hike announced at the meeting in February next year will depend on economic data, and most Fed officials hinted that it is possible to rate hike 50 basis points in February.</p><p>However, last Friday's non-farm data showed that the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market was easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation could cool down in the future.</p><p>After the non-farm data was released, the interest rate market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February to rise.<b>Currently, with upbeat December inflation expectations, markets expect Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75-5.00% in March and will remain at that level until November this year, when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.</b></p><p>But,<b>Given some risks, interest rates could be higher if the inflation data does not show substantial progress.</b></p><p>Will the market continue to \"surprise\" tonight?</p><p>The Andrew Tyler team at JPMorgan outlined their range of U.S. CPI forecasts in December, with probabilities, as well as forecasting the trend of U.S. stocks under different scenarios:</p><p>If the CPI is below 6.4%, the probability of this situation is about 20%, then the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 3% to 3.5%; For the bond market, unless the data is significantly lower than expected, such as CPI below 6%, the trend of the U.S. bond market will be moderate. If the CPI is in the 6.4% to 6.6% range, the probability of this happening is about 65%, and the S&P 500 will rise by 1.5% to 2%. Given the trend before the CPI data is released, the initial surge may fade throughout the session. If the CPI exceeds 6.6%, the probability of this happening is about 15%, and the bond market may reprice the final value of interest rates and push up bond yields, and the S&P 500 index will fall 2.5%-3%. If the CPI is above 6.8%, it may shock investors, and the probability of this happening is extremely small.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985a36de141baeb1d71a6d4faedfc13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tyler's team expects that the possibility that the upcoming data will be 0.1% different from the market consensus expectation is almost two-thirds, and it will be biased to the lower side. \"This should help the US stock market rebound, but as long as the Fed continues to be in the rate hike cycle, we will remain cautious.\"</p><p>Tyler also noted that his scenario analysis is \"biased bullish based on positions that could lead to overreaction by short covering dovish inflation data.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679619\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679619","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1125983557","content_text":"作者：王眉美国CPI已经连续两个月超预期放缓，给市场带来通胀将迅速降温的希望，今晚美国“CPI发布日”又将来袭，目前的预期较为乐观，所以今晚数据对市场会不会继续是个“大惊喜”？北京时间今晚21:30，美国将公布12月CPI，经济学家普遍预计，12月份整体CPI将同比上升6.5%，低于11月份7.1%的升幅，环比将下降0.1%，将是三年来首次环比为负；核心CPI预计同比将上升5.7%，低于上月的6%，预计环比将上升0.3%，略高于前值0.2%。本次数据是美联储在1月31日至2月1日的议息会议前，最后一份主要经济报告，数据表现或将决定美联储在下月初是加息25BP还是50BP。根据CME美联储观察工具，联邦基金期货交易员目前预计，美联储在2月加息25个基点的可能性为77%，3月再次加息的可能性为68%，利率终值将在年中升至4.75-5%。摩根大通的销售和交易部门认为，12月CPI数据可能低于预期，从而有助于美股延续近日的熊市反弹，标普500在数据公布当天有望上涨1.5%-2%。值得注意的是，由于上个月发生的疑似泄露事件，许多交易员在数据发布之前就会密切关注交易。汽油价格大幅下跌，核心商品和医疗服务通胀保持负数，房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱综合多家机构的分析预测，总体CPI下行将主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。中金公司李昭等预计，12月美国汽油价格环比将下跌11%，是通胀转负的重要原因。美国威尔明顿信托（Wilmington Trust）首席经济学家Luke Tilley表示，12月份汽油价格下跌12%及其他能源价格的下跌，将帮助推低通胀。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister预计，12月整体CPI经季节调整后将下降0.16%（四舍五入即-0.2%），这将是CPI环比自2020年4月以来最弱的一个月，当时汽油价格暴跌了20%。野村美国高级经济学家Aichi Amemiya预计，能源价格环比可能大幅下降5.1%，其中汽油价格下跌9.8%，而食品价格可能保持强劲，上涨0.6%。其中，仍然紧张的劳动力市场和工资增长表明，外出食品价格也将稳步上涨0.6%。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius预计，较低的汽油价格和较高的食品价格，将使得总体CPI环比下降0.06%，同比下降至6.43%。核心CPI里面，高盛主要预测了三个关键领域，分别是新车和二手车（核心商品）、机票价格（核心服务）、租户租金和业主等价租金（核心服务），该行在预测报告中写道：首先，我们预计新车 (-0.5%) 和二手车 (-1.6%) 价格将下降，反映出汽车经销商促销激励措施的增加和二手车拍卖价格的持续下降。其次，我们预计油价下跌将导致12月份CPI中的机票价格回落2%。第三，我们预计这次报告中住房通胀将继续以较慢的速度增长，因为新租户租赁的租金下降开始抵消高位运行的持续租户租赁租金，租户租金环比将上涨0.67%，业主等价租金（OER）环比将上涨0.64%。野村预计核心商品通胀环比将下降0.7%，二手车价格降幅最大，预计环比下降3.6%。在主要投行中，摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli的预测相对最高，其预测12月份能源价格将下跌5.2%，但这一跌幅基本被食品价格上涨0.5%和核心通胀上涨0.34%所抵消。Feroli预测，12月主要核心通胀将温和上升，其中12月份租户租金将上涨0.72%，而业主等价租金将上涨0.66%，医疗服务价格最近一直在下降，该行预计这种下降趋势将持续到12月，再下降0.5%。Feroli预计二手车价格将下跌0.7%，新车价格将下跌0.1%，跌幅不如高盛预测的大。投资者已经在预期美联储下月加息25bp在美国CPI连续两个月超预期放缓后，投资者希望，此次的通胀数据能为通胀已见顶的观点提供更多支持，并推动美联储进一步放缓其加息步伐。分析师指出，虽然鲍威尔曾明确指出，预计2023年不会降息，明年2月会议上宣布的加息幅度将取决于经济数据，多数美联储官员暗示2月有可能加息50个基点。但上周五非农数据显示，美国工资涨幅不及预期，同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和，反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。在非农数据公布后，利率市场预计美联储在2月加息25个基点的概率上升，目前，伴随着乐观的12月通胀预期，市场预计联邦基金利率将在3月达到4.75-5.00%的峰值，并将保持在这一水平直到今年11月，届时美联储将开始降息。不过，考虑到一些风险，如果通胀数据没有显示出实质性进展，利率可能会更高。今晚市场会继续“惊喜”吗？摩根大通Andrew Tyler团队概述了他们对12月份美国CPI的预测范围，并附上了概率，以及预测了不同情况下美股走势：如果CPI低于6.4%，这种情形出现的概率大约为20%，那么标普500指数有望上涨3%至3.5%；对债券市场来说，除非数据大幅低于预期，例如CPI低于6%，否则美债市场走势将较为温和。如果CPI位于6.4%至6.6%区间，这种情形出现的概率大约为65%，标普500指数将上涨1.5%至2%，鉴于CPI数据公布前的走势，最初的飙升可能会在整个交易日消退。如果CPI超过6.6%，这种情形出现的概率大约为15%，债券市场可能重新定价利率终值，并推高债券收益率，标普500指数将下跌2.5%-3%。如果CPI在6.8%以上，则可能令投资者震惊，这种情况出现的概率极小。Tyler团队预计，即将公布的数据和市场共识预期相差0.1%的可能性几乎达到三分之二，并偏向更低的一侧，“这应该有助于美股反弹，但只要美联储继续在加息周期之中，我们就会保持谨慎。”Tyler还指出，他的情景分析是“基于可能通过空头回补鸽派通胀数据而导致过度反应的持仓而偏向看涨的”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626042648,"gmtCreate":1673596050786,"gmtModify":1676538861973,"author":{"id":"3498000812601546","authorId":"3498000812601546","name":"AllIn888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe543d0b5fe2e7bca37915932c90d0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498000812601546","idStr":"3498000812601546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666666","listText":"666666","text":"666666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626042648","repostId":"1125983557","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125983557","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673516462,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125983557?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-12 17:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125983557","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"目前的预期较为乐观。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The CPI in the United States has slowed down more than expected for two consecutive months, bringing the hope to the market that inflation will cool down rapidly. Tonight, the \"CPI release day\" in the United States will hit again, and the current expectation is relatively optimistic, so will tonight's data continue to be a \"big surprise\" for the market?</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the December CPI. Economists generally expect,<b>The overall CPI in December will rise by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than the 7.1% increase in November, and will fall by 0.1% month-on-month, which will be the first negative month-on-month in three years; Core CPI is expected to rise 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6% last month, and 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.2%.</b></p><p>This data is the last major economic report of the Federal Reserve before the interest rate meeting from January 31st to February 1st. The data performance may determine whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike 25BP or 50BP at the beginning of next month.</p><p>According to the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool, fed funds futures traders now expect a 77% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in February and a 68% chance of another rate hike in March, with the final value of interest rates rising to 4.75-5% by mid-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e0e7b6b26b5c4eccf4032de1b5ef23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The sales and trading department of JPMorgan Chase believes that the CPI data in December may be lower than expected, which will help US stocks continue the recent bear market rebound. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 1.5%-2% on the day of the data release.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that due to the suspected breach that occurred last month, many traders keep a close eye on trades before the data is released.</p><p>Gasoline prices fell sharply, inflation in core commodities and health services remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken</p><p>According to the analysis and forecast of many institutions, the overall downward trend of CPI will be mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p>Li Zhao of CICC and others predict that the price of gasoline in the United States will fall by 11% month-on-month in December, which is an important reason for the negative inflation.</p><p>Luke Tilley, chief economist at the Wilmington Trust in the United States, said a 12% decline in gasoline prices and other energy prices in December would help push inflation down.</p><p><b>UBS economist Alan Detmeister expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.16% on a seasonally adjusted basis (-0.2% when rounded) in December, which will be the weakest month for CPI month-on-month since April 2020, when gasoline prices plunged by 20%.</b></p><p>Aichi Amemiya, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, forecasts that energy prices could fall sharply by 5.1% month-over-month, with gasoline falling 9.8%,<b>While food prices are likely to remain strong, rising 0.6%</b>。 Among them, the still-tight labor market and wage growth suggest that out-of-home food prices will also rise steadily by 0.6%.</p><p>Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, expects that lower gasoline prices and higher food prices will make the overall CPI fall by 0.06% month-on-month and 6.43% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f98eb1ae0adb33c02281406588eddfa\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inside the core CPI,</b>Goldman Sachs mainly forecasted three key areas, namely new and used cars (core commodities), airfare prices (core services), tenant rents and owner-equivalent rents (core services), the bank wrote in its forecast report:</p><p>First of all, we<b>New (-0.5%) and used (-1.6%) prices are expected to fall, reflecting increased promotional incentives for car dealers and continued declines in used car auction prices.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecac74f3e96ac48b22883bb5730ccdd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Secondly, we expect lower oil prices to lead to<b>Airfare prices dropped 2%</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3844181ebb6c2e00066c5ea88dd3b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Third, we expect housing inflation to continue to grow at a slower pace in this report as declining rents for new tenant rentals begin to offset high-running sustained tenant rental rents,<b>Tenant rents will increase by 0.67% month-on-month, and owner-equivalent rent (OER) will increase by 0.64% month-on-month.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686efce155efbb68b4e48ed176542bb4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nomura expects core commodity inflation to fall 0.7% month-over-month, with used car prices falling the most, with a forecast 3.6% month-over-month decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2486078097a4dd48b4aa929cf0db8924\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Among the major investment banks, Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, had the relatively highest forecast, predicting a 5.2% drop in energy prices in December, but the decline was largely offset by a 0.5% rise in food prices and a 0.34% rise in core inflation.</b></p><p>Feroli forecasts a modest rise in major core inflation in December, with tenant rents rising by 0.72% in December, while owner-equivalent rents will rise by 0.66%,<b>Health service prices have been falling recently, and the bank expects this downward trend to continue into December, with another 0.5% decline</b>。</p><p>Feroli expects used car prices to fall 0.7% and new car prices to fall 0.1%, not as much as Goldman Sachs forecast.</p><p>Investors are already expecting the Fed to rate hike 25bp next month</p><p>After the U.S. CPI slowed more than expected for two consecutive months, investors hope that this inflation data will provide more support for the view that inflation has peaked and push the Federal Reserve to further slow down its rate hike.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that although Powell made it clear that no interest rate cut is expected in 2023, the magnitude of the rate hike announced at the meeting in February next year will depend on economic data, and most Fed officials hinted that it is possible to rate hike 50 basis points in February.</p><p>However, last Friday's non-farm data showed that the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market was easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation could cool down in the future.</p><p>After the non-farm data was released, the interest rate market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February to rise.<b>Currently, with upbeat December inflation expectations, markets expect Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75-5.00% in March and will remain at that level until November this year, when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.</b></p><p>But,<b>Given some risks, interest rates could be higher if the inflation data does not show substantial progress.</b></p><p>Will the market continue to \"surprise\" tonight?</p><p>The Andrew Tyler team at JPMorgan outlined their range of U.S. CPI forecasts in December, with probabilities, as well as forecasting the trend of U.S. stocks under different scenarios:</p><p>If the CPI is below 6.4%, the probability of this situation is about 20%, then the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 3% to 3.5%; For the bond market, unless the data is significantly lower than expected, such as CPI below 6%, the trend of the U.S. bond market will be moderate. If the CPI is in the 6.4% to 6.6% range, the probability of this happening is about 65%, and the S&P 500 will rise by 1.5% to 2%. Given the trend before the CPI data is released, the initial surge may fade throughout the session. If the CPI exceeds 6.6%, the probability of this happening is about 15%, and the bond market may reprice the final value of interest rates and push up bond yields, and the S&P 500 index will fall 2.5%-3%. If the CPI is above 6.8%, it may shock investors, and the probability of this happening is extremely small.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985a36de141baeb1d71a6d4faedfc13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tyler's team expects that the possibility that the upcoming data will be 0.1% different from the market consensus expectation is almost two-thirds, and it will be biased to the lower side. \"This should help the US stock market rebound, but as long as the Fed continues to be in the rate hike cycle, we will remain cautious.\"</p><p>Tyler also noted that his scenario analysis is \"biased bullish based on positions that could lead to overreaction by short covering dovish inflation data.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTonight, everyone is waiting for the US December CPI, will there be a big surprise?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-12 17:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Wang Mei</p><p>The CPI in the United States has slowed down more than expected for two consecutive months, bringing the hope to the market that inflation will cool down rapidly. Tonight, the \"CPI release day\" in the United States will hit again, and the current expectation is relatively optimistic, so will tonight's data continue to be a \"big surprise\" for the market?</p><p>At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the December CPI. Economists generally expect,<b>The overall CPI in December will rise by 6.5% year-on-year, lower than the 7.1% increase in November, and will fall by 0.1% month-on-month, which will be the first negative month-on-month in three years; Core CPI is expected to rise 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6% last month, and 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the previous value of 0.2%.</b></p><p>This data is the last major economic report of the Federal Reserve before the interest rate meeting from January 31st to February 1st. The data performance may determine whether the Federal Reserve will rate hike 25BP or 50BP at the beginning of next month.</p><p>According to the CME Federal Reserve Watch tool, fed funds futures traders now expect a 77% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in February and a 68% chance of another rate hike in March, with the final value of interest rates rising to 4.75-5% by mid-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0e0e7b6b26b5c4eccf4032de1b5ef23\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The sales and trading department of JPMorgan Chase believes that the CPI data in December may be lower than expected, which will help US stocks continue the recent bear market rebound. The S&P 500 is expected to rise by 1.5%-2% on the day of the data release.</b></p><p>It is worth noting that due to the suspected breach that occurred last month, many traders keep a close eye on trades before the data is released.</p><p>Gasoline prices fell sharply, inflation in core commodities and health services remained negative, and the effect of rent on inflation continued to weaken</p><p>According to the analysis and forecast of many institutions, the overall downward trend of CPI will be mainly affected by the sharp drop in gasoline prices.</p><p>Li Zhao of CICC and others predict that the price of gasoline in the United States will fall by 11% month-on-month in December, which is an important reason for the negative inflation.</p><p>Luke Tilley, chief economist at the Wilmington Trust in the United States, said a 12% decline in gasoline prices and other energy prices in December would help push inflation down.</p><p><b>UBS economist Alan Detmeister expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.16% on a seasonally adjusted basis (-0.2% when rounded) in December, which will be the weakest month for CPI month-on-month since April 2020, when gasoline prices plunged by 20%.</b></p><p>Aichi Amemiya, senior U.S. economist at Nomura, forecasts that energy prices could fall sharply by 5.1% month-over-month, with gasoline falling 9.8%,<b>While food prices are likely to remain strong, rising 0.6%</b>。 Among them, the still-tight labor market and wage growth suggest that out-of-home food prices will also rise steadily by 0.6%.</p><p>Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, expects that lower gasoline prices and higher food prices will make the overall CPI fall by 0.06% month-on-month and 6.43% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f98eb1ae0adb33c02281406588eddfa\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inside the core CPI,</b>Goldman Sachs mainly forecasted three key areas, namely new and used cars (core commodities), airfare prices (core services), tenant rents and owner-equivalent rents (core services), the bank wrote in its forecast report:</p><p>First of all, we<b>New (-0.5%) and used (-1.6%) prices are expected to fall, reflecting increased promotional incentives for car dealers and continued declines in used car auction prices.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecac74f3e96ac48b22883bb5730ccdd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Secondly, we expect lower oil prices to lead to<b>Airfare prices dropped 2%</b>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c3844181ebb6c2e00066c5ea88dd3b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Third, we expect housing inflation to continue to grow at a slower pace in this report as declining rents for new tenant rentals begin to offset high-running sustained tenant rental rents,<b>Tenant rents will increase by 0.67% month-on-month, and owner-equivalent rent (OER) will increase by 0.64% month-on-month.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/686efce155efbb68b4e48ed176542bb4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Nomura expects core commodity inflation to fall 0.7% month-over-month, with used car prices falling the most, with a forecast 3.6% month-over-month decline.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2486078097a4dd48b4aa929cf0db8924\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"632\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Among the major investment banks, Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, had the relatively highest forecast, predicting a 5.2% drop in energy prices in December, but the decline was largely offset by a 0.5% rise in food prices and a 0.34% rise in core inflation.</b></p><p>Feroli forecasts a modest rise in major core inflation in December, with tenant rents rising by 0.72% in December, while owner-equivalent rents will rise by 0.66%,<b>Health service prices have been falling recently, and the bank expects this downward trend to continue into December, with another 0.5% decline</b>。</p><p>Feroli expects used car prices to fall 0.7% and new car prices to fall 0.1%, not as much as Goldman Sachs forecast.</p><p>Investors are already expecting the Fed to rate hike 25bp next month</p><p>After the U.S. CPI slowed more than expected for two consecutive months, investors hope that this inflation data will provide more support for the view that inflation has peaked and push the Federal Reserve to further slow down its rate hike.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that although Powell made it clear that no interest rate cut is expected in 2023, the magnitude of the rate hike announced at the meeting in February next year will depend on economic data, and most Fed officials hinted that it is possible to rate hike 50 basis points in February.</p><p>However, last Friday's non-farm data showed that the wage increase in the United States was less than expected, and the gap between supply and demand in the U.S. labor market was easing, reflecting that the labor market and service inflation could cool down in the future.</p><p>After the non-farm data was released, the interest rate market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in February to rise.<b>Currently, with upbeat December inflation expectations, markets expect Federal Funds rate to peak at 4.75-5.00% in March and will remain at that level until November this year, when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.</b></p><p>But,<b>Given some risks, interest rates could be higher if the inflation data does not show substantial progress.</b></p><p>Will the market continue to \"surprise\" tonight?</p><p>The Andrew Tyler team at JPMorgan outlined their range of U.S. CPI forecasts in December, with probabilities, as well as forecasting the trend of U.S. stocks under different scenarios:</p><p>If the CPI is below 6.4%, the probability of this situation is about 20%, then the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 3% to 3.5%; For the bond market, unless the data is significantly lower than expected, such as CPI below 6%, the trend of the U.S. bond market will be moderate. If the CPI is in the 6.4% to 6.6% range, the probability of this happening is about 65%, and the S&P 500 will rise by 1.5% to 2%. Given the trend before the CPI data is released, the initial surge may fade throughout the session. If the CPI exceeds 6.6%, the probability of this happening is about 15%, and the bond market may reprice the final value of interest rates and push up bond yields, and the S&P 500 index will fall 2.5%-3%. If the CPI is above 6.8%, it may shock investors, and the probability of this happening is extremely small.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/985a36de141baeb1d71a6d4faedfc13d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Tyler's team expects that the possibility that the upcoming data will be 0.1% different from the market consensus expectation is almost two-thirds, and it will be biased to the lower side. \"This should help the US stock market rebound, but as long as the Fed continues to be in the rate hike cycle, we will remain cautious.\"</p><p>Tyler also noted that his scenario analysis is \"biased bullish based on positions that could lead to overreaction by short covering dovish inflation data.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679619\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679619","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1125983557","content_text":"作者：王眉美国CPI已经连续两个月超预期放缓，给市场带来通胀将迅速降温的希望，今晚美国“CPI发布日”又将来袭，目前的预期较为乐观，所以今晚数据对市场会不会继续是个“大惊喜”？北京时间今晚21:30，美国将公布12月CPI，经济学家普遍预计，12月份整体CPI将同比上升6.5%，低于11月份7.1%的升幅，环比将下降0.1%，将是三年来首次环比为负；核心CPI预计同比将上升5.7%，低于上月的6%，预计环比将上升0.3%，略高于前值0.2%。本次数据是美联储在1月31日至2月1日的议息会议前，最后一份主要经济报告，数据表现或将决定美联储在下月初是加息25BP还是50BP。根据CME美联储观察工具，联邦基金期货交易员目前预计，美联储在2月加息25个基点的可能性为77%，3月再次加息的可能性为68%，利率终值将在年中升至4.75-5%。摩根大通的销售和交易部门认为，12月CPI数据可能低于预期，从而有助于美股延续近日的熊市反弹，标普500在数据公布当天有望上涨1.5%-2%。值得注意的是，由于上个月发生的疑似泄露事件，许多交易员在数据发布之前就会密切关注交易。汽油价格大幅下跌，核心商品和医疗服务通胀保持负数，房租对通胀推升效果持续减弱综合多家机构的分析预测，总体CPI下行将主要受汽油价格大幅下跌影响。中金公司李昭等预计，12月美国汽油价格环比将下跌11%，是通胀转负的重要原因。美国威尔明顿信托（Wilmington Trust）首席经济学家Luke Tilley表示，12月份汽油价格下跌12%及其他能源价格的下跌，将帮助推低通胀。瑞银经济学家Alan Detmeister预计，12月整体CPI经季节调整后将下降0.16%（四舍五入即-0.2%），这将是CPI环比自2020年4月以来最弱的一个月，当时汽油价格暴跌了20%。野村美国高级经济学家Aichi Amemiya预计，能源价格环比可能大幅下降5.1%，其中汽油价格下跌9.8%，而食品价格可能保持强劲，上涨0.6%。其中，仍然紧张的劳动力市场和工资增长表明，外出食品价格也将稳步上涨0.6%。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius预计，较低的汽油价格和较高的食品价格，将使得总体CPI环比下降0.06%，同比下降至6.43%。核心CPI里面，高盛主要预测了三个关键领域，分别是新车和二手车（核心商品）、机票价格（核心服务）、租户租金和业主等价租金（核心服务），该行在预测报告中写道：首先，我们预计新车 (-0.5%) 和二手车 (-1.6%) 价格将下降，反映出汽车经销商促销激励措施的增加和二手车拍卖价格的持续下降。其次，我们预计油价下跌将导致12月份CPI中的机票价格回落2%。第三，我们预计这次报告中住房通胀将继续以较慢的速度增长，因为新租户租赁的租金下降开始抵消高位运行的持续租户租赁租金，租户租金环比将上涨0.67%，业主等价租金（OER）环比将上涨0.64%。野村预计核心商品通胀环比将下降0.7%，二手车价格降幅最大，预计环比下降3.6%。在主要投行中，摩根大通首席经济学家Michael Feroli的预测相对最高，其预测12月份能源价格将下跌5.2%，但这一跌幅基本被食品价格上涨0.5%和核心通胀上涨0.34%所抵消。Feroli预测，12月主要核心通胀将温和上升，其中12月份租户租金将上涨0.72%，而业主等价租金将上涨0.66%，医疗服务价格最近一直在下降，该行预计这种下降趋势将持续到12月，再下降0.5%。Feroli预计二手车价格将下跌0.7%，新车价格将下跌0.1%，跌幅不如高盛预测的大。投资者已经在预期美联储下月加息25bp在美国CPI连续两个月超预期放缓后，投资者希望，此次的通胀数据能为通胀已见顶的观点提供更多支持，并推动美联储进一步放缓其加息步伐。分析师指出，虽然鲍威尔曾明确指出，预计2023年不会降息，明年2月会议上宣布的加息幅度将取决于经济数据，多数美联储官员暗示2月有可能加息50个基点。但上周五非农数据显示，美国工资涨幅不及预期，同时美国劳动力市场供需缺口正在缓和，反映劳动力市场与服务通胀未来降温可期。在非农数据公布后，利率市场预计美联储在2月加息25个基点的概率上升，目前，伴随着乐观的12月通胀预期，市场预计联邦基金利率将在3月达到4.75-5.00%的峰值，并将保持在这一水平直到今年11月，届时美联储将开始降息。不过，考虑到一些风险，如果通胀数据没有显示出实质性进展，利率可能会更高。今晚市场会继续“惊喜”吗？摩根大通Andrew Tyler团队概述了他们对12月份美国CPI的预测范围，并附上了概率，以及预测了不同情况下美股走势：如果CPI低于6.4%，这种情形出现的概率大约为20%，那么标普500指数有望上涨3%至3.5%；对债券市场来说，除非数据大幅低于预期，例如CPI低于6%，否则美债市场走势将较为温和。如果CPI位于6.4%至6.6%区间，这种情形出现的概率大约为65%，标普500指数将上涨1.5%至2%，鉴于CPI数据公布前的走势，最初的飙升可能会在整个交易日消退。如果CPI超过6.6%，这种情形出现的概率大约为15%，债券市场可能重新定价利率终值，并推高债券收益率，标普500指数将下跌2.5%-3%。如果CPI在6.8%以上，则可能令投资者震惊，这种情况出现的概率极小。Tyler团队预计，即将公布的数据和市场共识预期相差0.1%的可能性几乎达到三分之二，并偏向更低的一侧，“这应该有助于美股反弹，但只要美联储继续在加息周期之中，我们就会保持谨慎。”Tyler还指出，他的情景分析是“基于可能通过空头回补鸽派通胀数据而导致过度反应的持仓而偏向看涨的”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626046297,"gmtCreate":1673595662621,"gmtModify":1676538861926,"author":{"id":"3498000812601546","authorId":"3498000812601546","name":"AllIn888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe543d0b5fe2e7bca37915932c90d0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498000812601546","idStr":"3498000812601546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6666666","listText":"6666666","text":"6666666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626046297","repostId":"1168171780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626046683,"gmtCreate":1673595653343,"gmtModify":1676538861918,"author":{"id":"3498000812601546","authorId":"3498000812601546","name":"AllIn888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bfe543d0b5fe2e7bca37915932c90d0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3498000812601546","idStr":"3498000812601546"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/626046683","repostId":"1168171780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}