After a week of consolidation, gold $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$ brushed off the “risk” of the FOMC rate decision and surged to a fresh record high on Monday night, reaching as high as $3,688/oz. The key question now: when will this rally peak? The answer depends largely on what is driving this move — and who is buying. Understanding these factors helps us determine where we are in the gold cycle. Short-Term Drivers The recent rally is not hard to explain. The main short-term catalysts are: Pricing in a September Fed rate cut Uncertainty around Trump’s policies and tariffs Falling U.S. Treasury yields Geopolitical risk premium Inflation hedging Among these, the September rate cut expectation and policy/tariff uncertainty under Trump are the mo

As the first half of 2025 draws to a close, the global economic landscape has undergone profound changes, and capital markets have experienced intense turbulence under the impact of multiple variables. From the rekindling of trade wars triggered by U.S. tariff policies, to the growing divergence in central bank monetary policies, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a series of major events have not only deeply influenced asset prices but also left several unresolved issues that will shape the trajectory of the market in the second half of the year. Faced with growing economic challenges ahead, investors are reassessing the balance between risk and reward. This article takes the U.S. stock market as an example to review the performance of capital markets and macr

As we head into the second half of 2025, the market is gradually finding direction after a first half marked by policy confusion and geopolitical anxieties. While some risk factors have eased at the margin, uncertainty remains the key theme. This article provides a structured outlook for the coming months through four lenses: tariff policy, monetary path, U.S. equity valuations, and the credibility of the U.S. dollar. Read more>>H1 2025 Markets Review: The Truth and Risks Behind the “V-Shaped Rebound” Trump’s Tariff Strategy Shifts: Repricing Risk in Focus In H1 2025, President Trump revived his "reciprocal tariffs" rhetoric, reigniting global trade tensions. However, his trademark "high-pressure negotiation" tact