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The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets

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A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging the existence of a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Security Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>When a company with the technology to reshape civilization rushes to a trillion-dollar valuation, the market cares about growth and computing power, but there is only one core issue around Sam Altman: trust. A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging the existence of a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Security Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL 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ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068623.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE \"AH1\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625993708","content_text":"当一家掌握重塑文明技术的公司冲向万亿估值时，市场关心增长与算力，但围绕Sam Altman的核心问题却只有一个：信任。一份横跨数百人访谈的调查提出质疑——这位AI时代的关键人物，是否值得托付未来？\n据《纽约客》4月6日发表的深度报道，对Altman的质疑并非来自外部，而是出自他最亲近的同事与董事。一份内部备忘录的第一条指控就是“撒谎”。在他们眼中，Altman习惯对不同对象讲述不同版本的现实，而这个人，正主导AI的走向。\n2023年被解雇又迅速复职的五天权力风暴，没有澄清问题，反而加深疑问：当资本、员工与技术力量集体站队，一位CEO是否已经超越了任何实质性约束？\n与此同时，OpenAI正深入军方、中东资本与敏感国家基础设施领域，而公司内部安全承诺却被削弱，“安全”甚至从核心业务中消失。理想主义外壳，正在被现实利益重塑。\n问题因此升级——这不只是个人诚信，而是结构性风险：当AGI的钥匙集中在少数人手中，而其可信度存疑，人类是否还拥有“刹车权”？\nAltman曾说，AI需要一点“虚构”的魔力。但真正的不确定在于：当现实与叙事边界开始模糊，我们面对的，究竟是一个改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大故事。\n\"谎言\"——前同事的秘密备忘录\n2023年秋，OpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever以消失消息的形式，向另外三位董事秘密传递了约70页的内部文件汇编。这批材料包括Slack聊天记录、人力资源文件及说明性文字，部分内容以手机拍照方式留存，显然是为了规避公司设备的监控。\n这批内部文件此前从未被完整披露。其中一份专门针对Altman的备忘录以一份清单开篇，标题为\"Sam持续展现出……\"，第一条即是：\"撒谎。\"\nSutskever积累这些担忧有其思想脉络。他曾是Altman的朋友，2019年甚至在OpenAI办公室主持了联合创始人Greg Brockman的婚礼。\n但随着他愈发相信公司正在逼近其终极目标——创造出能够与人类认知能力相媲美乃至超越人类的AI——他对Altman的疑虑与日俱增。他当时对另一位董事说：\n\n\"我不认为Sam是那个应该握住按钮的人。\"\n\nAI政策专家Helen Toner与企业家Tasha McCauley收到这批文件时，视之为印证：这两位女性已经各自形成了类似判断。\"他被赋予了人类的未来，\"一位知情董事对《纽约客》说，\"但他不值得信任。\"\n从Y Combinator到OpenAI：一个争议性崛起\nAltman并非横空出世。他的职业模式在远早于OpenAI之前便已形成。\n他在斯坦福大学读了一年半后，加入了著名程序员Paul Graham创办的创业孵化器Y Combinator（Y.C.）。\n他的第一家公司Loopt是一款基于手机位置的原始社交网络，折射出他的一个长期特质：将模糊的规则解读为对自己有利的规则。\nLoopt时期，已有员工对他的夸大其词感到困惑。一名前员工回忆，Altman曾大肆吹嘘自己是乒乓球冠军，\"密苏里州高中乒乓球冠军之类的\"，但实际上是公司里打得最差的人之一。\n一位曾被投资者安排担任Altman\"监护人\"的资深员工Mark Jacobstein后来将这种习惯描述为：\n\n\"'我认为我也许能做到'和'我已经做到了'之间的界限模糊，在最极端的形式下，就会走向Theranos那样的骗局（硅谷著名骗局）。\"\n\n2014年，Graham退休前将Altman擢升为Y.C.主席。然而到2018年，多位Y.C.合伙人已对Altman的行为深感不满，据多位当时在场人士的陈述，Graham夫妇曾与Altman进行了一次坦率谈话，实质上是迫使他离开。\nGraham曾私下对Y.C.同事表示，在Altman被要求离开之前，\"Sam一直在欺骗我们。\"\nAltman本人坚持声称自己从未被Y.C.解雇，且离开完全出于本人意愿。Graham的公开表述则相对模糊，他告诉《纽约客》：\"我们没有法律权力解雇任何人。我们所能做的只是施加道义压力。\"\nOpenAI的创立：用末日叙事募集理想主义\n2015年，Altman向Elon Musk发出了一封电子邮件，由此奠定了OpenAI的创立基础。\n此前，Altman一贯是科技乐观主义者，但他的AI话语迅速转向了末日论调。他在私下和公开场合反复警告：AI技术不应由追求利润的大公司主导。\"如果这件事终究要发生，\"他写信给Musk，\"最好由Google之外的人来做。\"\nOpenAI由此成立，被注册为非营利组织，董事会负有将人类安全置于公司利益之上的法定职责，甚至高于公司生存本身。\n创始人公开声称，AI可能是人类历史上最危险的发明，因此需要一种非同寻常的公司治理结构。这一叙事极具感召力：它成功地将原本分散在谷歌、学术界的顶尖研究人员招募到一家资金匮乏的新组织。\n据Sutskever回忆，当时的招募口号是：\"你将拯救世界。\"\n然而，内部矛盾从一开始便暗流涌动。根据Dario Amodei（此后创立Anthropic）积累的超过200页私人笔记——这批文件从未公开披露——Altman在早期便流露出不同信号。\n在2019年与微软谈判10亿美元投资期间，Amodei将维护公司章程中\"合并与协助\"条款（如果另一家公司率先安全开发出AGI，OpenAI将协助而非竞争）列为首要谈判底线，并得到Altman的口头承诺。\n但交易临近签署时，Amodei发现合同中已悄然加入一项赋予微软阻止OpenAI任何合并行为的条款。他当场质问Altman，后者起初否认该条款存在，Amodei不得不逐字朗读合同文本，并让另一名同事当面确认。\nAmodei后来在笔记中写道：\"他的话几乎肯定是谎言\"。\n\"政变\"与复辟：五天内的权力戏剧\n2023年11月的那个周末，当董事会通过视频电话宣读声明、告知Altman他已不再是OpenAI员工时，他正身处拉斯维加斯观看F1赛车。\n消息震动了整个科技界。微软在解雇发生前数分钟才被告知——这家已向OpenAI投入逾130亿美元的战略伙伴措手不及。\"我非常震惊，\"微软CEO Satya Nadella后来表示。\nLinkedIn联合创始人、OpenAI投资人Reid Hoffman随即展开电话调查，试图弄清Altman究竟犯了什么错。\"我根本不知道他妈发生了什么，\"Hoffman告诉《纽约客》，\"我们在找挪用公款的证据，或者性骚扰，但什么都没找到。\"\nAltman返回旧金山自己的2700万美元豪宅，迅速组建起一个非正式\"流亡政府\"，成员包括Airbnb联合创始人Brian Chesky、投资人Ron Conway及危机公关人士Chris Lehane。他的电话记录显示，他每天通话时间超过12小时。\n与此同时，他协同微软CEO Nadella协调口径，并向代理CEO Mira Murati传递了一个明确信号：他的盟友们\"正在全力出击\"，并正在\"发掘负面信息\"以损害包括她在内的那些曾反对他的人的名誉。（Altman表示不记得有过这样的对话。）\n在强大的外部压力下，多数员工联署了要求Altman复职的公开信，Sutskever最终也在信上签字。\n董事会被迫妥协，Helen Toner和Tasha McCauley失去了席位，而新加入的两位董事（前哈佛大学校长Lawrence Summers和前Facebook首席技术官Bret Taylor）均是在与Altman深度沟通后才被选定的。\n\"你能不能这样做：把Bret、Larry Summers、Adam作为董事会，让我担任CEO，然后由Bret负责调查？\"Altman如此发短信给Nadella。不到五天，他便复职了。\n员工们将这段历史称为\"the Blip\"（短暂消失），借用漫威电影中的情节：人物消失后重现，本人毫发无损，而世界已然天翻地覆。\n那份从未落纸的调查报告\n被解雇的董事们将接受独立调查作为离职条件之一。OpenAI聘请了曾主导安然、世通内部调查的律所WilmerHale负责这项\"审查\"。但据六名接近调查的知情人士称，整个过程似乎被刻意设计为限制透明度。\n调查人员起初未与多位关键当事人接触；部分受访员工因担忧匿名性不足而不敢坦诚发言。\"他们只关注董事会风波期间的狭窄时间窗口，而非他长期以来的诚信历史，\"一名受访员工说。\n2024年3月，OpenAI宣布Altman获得清白，但没有发布任何调查报告。公司官网仅挂出约800字的声明，承认存在\"信任破裂\"。\n据知情人士透露，之所以没有书面报告，是因为根本没有写，调查结论仅以口头简报的形式向Summers和Taylor呈报。\"审查得出的结论并不是Sam诚实，\"一名接近调查的人士说，\"但它确定他可以继续担任CEO。\"\n数位曾在场的前员工和现任员工对这种不公开的做法感到震惊。Altman复职后不久便重新加入了董事会。\n从“人类安全优先”的非营利承诺到营利化再资本化\nOpenAI最初的设定，是用非营利结构约束商业冲动，董事会对“人类安全优先于公司成功甚至生存”负有义务。但内部记录显示，这一承诺一直在被侵蚀。\n2022年12月的一次董事会会议上，Altman向成员们保证，GPT-4的若干功能已通过安全审查委员会批准。Toner要求查阅文件后发现，最具争议的功能——允许用户\"微调\"模型和将其部署为个人助理——均未获批准。\n此外，她还得知微软在印度提前发布了ChatGPT的早期版本，跳过了必要的安全审查，而Altman在与董事会的多次长时间汇报中从未提及此事。\n当安全研究员Jan Leike被任命领导\"超级对齐团队\"时，官方声明承诺该团队将获得公司算力的\"20%\"。但据四名亲历者陈述，实际分配的算力在1%至2%之间，且\"大部分超级对齐算力实际上用的是最老旧、芯片最差的集群\"。\nLeike向Murati投诉，后者告诉他不要再提这件事，因为\"这个承诺从来就不现实\"。\n2024年，Sutskever和Leike相继离职。Leike在社交媒体上写道：\"安全文化和流程已经让位于闪亮的产品。\"OpenAI此后陆续解散了超级对齐团队，在最新的美国国税局申报表中，\"安全\"一词也从公司\"最重要业务活动\"的描述中消失。\n万亿赌局：向专制政权押注AI未来\nAltman在商业上最雄心勃勃的赌注，也是外界最感忧虑的——是将AI基础设施建设向中东专制政权延伸。\n早在2016年，他便结识了沙特王储Mohammed bin Salman，并私下称其为\"朋友\"。2018年，记者Jamal Khashoggi被杀一周后，Altman宣布加入沙特主导的未来城市项目Neom顾问委员会，随后在同事强烈反对下才退出。\n但据一名政策顾问回忆，Altman随即开始询问是否能以某种方式绕开道义压力继续从沙特获得资金，\"问题不是'这是否是坏事'，而是'如果我们这么做，会有什么后果？有出口管制问题吗？会有制裁吗？我能不能不被发现？'\"\n与此并行，他将目光转向阿联酋。阿联酋总统之弟、国家情报总监Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan掌控着约1.5万亿美元的主权财富，他同时运营着国家控股AI集团G42。\nAltman与其建立了深度私人关系，在社交媒体上称之为\"亲爱的挚友\"，并曾于2024年受邀登上其价值2.5亿美元的超级游艇\"Maryah\"号。\n2023年，Altman开始秘密推动一项被称为\"ChipCo\"的计划：由海湾国家出资数百亿美元，在中东建设大规模芯片代工厂和数据中心。\"据我的理解，整件事发生时董事会毫不知情，\"一位知情董事说。\n美国拜登政府对此深感警惕，商务部官员明确告知Altman：\"我们不打算在阿联酋建造先进芯片。\"\n然而，随着特朗普重返白宫，局面彻底改变。就职第一周，Altman便站在白宫罗斯福厅宣布\"星际之门\"（Stargate）计划——一项旨在在美国境内构建庞大AI基础设施网络、总额达5000亿美元的合资企业。\n随后，拜登政府的AI技术出口限制被废除，Altman陪同特朗普出访沙特王室，而沙特随即宣布成立一家国家支持的大型AI公司。与此同时，OpenAI宣布在阿布扎比建设一个面积相当于中央公园七倍、耗电量堪比迈阿密整座城市的数据中心园区。\n\"我们正在建造门户，通过这些门户我们正在真正地召唤异类，\"一名前OpenAI高管说，\"Sam在中东又增加了一个门户。这是有史以来最不负责任的事情之一。\"\n监管与游说：从“欢迎监管”到对安全法案的强硬反击\n在公众形象的塑造上，Altman曾长期扮演科技巨头中的异类——他主动呼吁政府监管AI，2023年在美国参议院司法委员会作证时甚至提议设立新的联邦监管机构。\n路易斯安那州参议员John Kennedy看起来颇受感动，靠在手上说，也许应该让Altman本人来执行规则。\n但与此同时，据《时代》杂志报道，OpenAI在2022至2023年间成功游说削弱了欧盟一项旨在加强对大型AI公司监管的立法。在加州，当一项与Altman此前国会证词条款高度相近的AI安全法案提交立法机构后，OpenAI公开表示反对，并在私下发出威胁。\n\"在这一年里，我们看到了来自OpenAI的手段越来越狡猾和具有欺骗性的行为，\"一名立法助手对《纽约客》说。投资人Conway游说了包括Nancy Pelosi和Gavin Newsom在内的政界领袖，该法案最终在通过议会后被Newsom否决。\n今年，一个名为\"引领未来\"（Leading the Future）的亲AI超级政治行动委员会开始资助反对AI监管候选人。\nOpenAI官方表示不会向此类组织捐款，但该委员会的主要捐款人之一是Greg Brockman，承诺捐出5000万美元。同年，Brockman夫妇还向支持特朗普的\"MAGA Inc.\"捐赠了2500万美元。\n权力的解剖：顺从他人与操控他人的矛盾统一体\n在《纽约客》采访的数十名当事人中，大多数人分享了对Altman某种共同的心理画像。一名董事说：\n\n\"他不受真相约束。他有两种几乎从不同时出现在同一个人身上的特质：第一是强烈渴望取悦他人、在每一次互动中被人喜欢；第二是几乎带有反社会性质的、对欺骗他人所带来后果的漠然。\"\n\n这位董事不是唯一一个自发使用\"反社会\"一词的人。Altman在Y Combinator第一届学员中的同期者、被视为技术圈精神遗产的Aaron Swartz，在去世前数年曾向多位友人表达了对Altman的担忧，措辞强烈。\n多名微软高级管理人员也在采访中表示，尽管Nadella长期力挺，微软与Altman的关系已变得紧张。其中一人说：\n\n\"他误导、歪曲、重新谈判、食言，我认为他有一定的可能——虽然不大但确实存在——最终被人记住为Bernie Madoff或Sam Bankman-Fried级别的骗子。\"\n\n对于这些指控，Altman及其支持者的解释是，他的行为不过是\"正常的竞争性商业实践\"，而他的批评者则是科幻式\"末日论者\"，或是嫉妒他成功的失败者。\n\"他太沉浸于自我信念，\"前董事成员Sue Yoon说，\"所以他做了一些在现实世界中毫无逻辑的事。但他不活在现实世界里。\"\n一万亿美元的问题：他是否应该主宰这一切\nOpenAI据报道正准备IPO，潜在估值接近1万亿美元。Altman驾驭着人类有史以来增长最快的初创企业之一，其融资规模——最近一轮单轮即超过1200亿美元，为历史最大私募融资规模的四倍。\n在可预见的未来，这家公司的决策将影响数以亿计的人的生活：AI何时应当停止，何时应当继续；它应当帮助谁，拒绝服务谁；在战场上，它是否可以在没有人类监督的情况下自主决策。\n问题不仅在于Altman是一个道德上有瑕疵的人——任何一个运营过大公司的人都知道，这本身不足为奇。\n问题在于：OpenAI的存在理由，自始至终建立在一个前提之上——它与其他公司不同，它的领导者必须具备\"非同寻常的诚信\"，因为他们掌握的是一项可以改变文明的技术。\nSutskever最初对这一使命深信不疑，正是因为这个信念，他拒绝了谷歌的千万美元年薪。\n在一次采访中，记者问Altman，运营一家AI公司是否要求\"更高的诚信标准\"。\n这本应是一个容易回答的问题。他迟疑了，然后说，\"我认为很多行业都可能对社会产生巨大影响，无论好坏。\"片刻后，他补充道：\"是的，这需要更高的诚信，我每天都感受到这份责任的重量。\"\n然而，OpenAI最新的IRS申报表中，\"安全\"作为公司核心业务的描述已经消失。曾经的招募口号：\"你将拯救世界\"，已被公司内部的新口号所取代：\"感受AGI。\"\n正如Altman曾以近乎哲学的口吻向媒体说的那样，他允许旗下AI模型保留一定程度的\"虚构\"能力，而非追求百分之百的准确性，因为\"那种魔力，是人们最喜欢的东西\"。这也许，是理解他本人的最好注脚。▪","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFX":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFT":1.82,"AIYY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":551087593541840,"gmtCreate":1775564165799,"gmtModify":1775566974677,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212352499387392","authorIdStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mark&nbsp;","listText":"Mark&nbsp;","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/551087593541840","repostId":"2625302879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625302879","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775563968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625302879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-07 20:12","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625302879","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。","content":"<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","REET":"iShares Trust iShares Global REIT ETF","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","BK4129":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769406","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625302879","content_text":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol发出迄今最严厉警告：此次海湾能源冲击的烈度超过1973年、1979年与2022年危机的总和，全球经济正濒临一场多维度的供应崩溃。\nBirol周二接受法国《费加罗报》采访时披露，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中约三分之一受到严重破坏。\n他表示，若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损失的原油与成品油数量将达三月份的两倍——\"我们正在进入一个'黑色四月'\"。\n此次危机的破坏力之所以前所未有，在于其波及范围已远超单纯的石油领域，同时冲击天然气、粮食、化肥、石化产品、氦气及全球贸易体系。Birol明确表示，这场危机的根源不在于能源本身，而在于地缘政治，这也令其对前景深感悲观。\n75处能源设施受损，修复之路漫长\nIEA目前正对海湾地区的油田、炼油厂与能源终端实施实时监控。\n75处设施已遭袭击并受损，逾三分之一损毁严重，修缮工程耗资将达数百亿美元，且将造成部分能源流的长期中断，进一步收紧全球供应，并加剧霍尔木兹海峡这一关键咽喉要道的运输压力。\n在各受损国中，恢复速度分化显著。\nBirol指出，沙特阿拉伯凭借强大的工程能力与充裕的财政资源，有望相对较快恢复；而伊拉克的处境则远为严峻，约1500万人依赖油气收入为生，该国已损失约三分之二的石油收入，正逼近经济瘫痪的临界点。他说：\n\n\"中东此前一直是全球可靠的能源枢纽，要恢复到这一地位，将需要很长时间。\"\n\n产量腰斩，天然气出口全面停摆\n在产量损失方面，Birol的描述触目惊心。他表示，相关国家目前的石油产量仅略超战前水平的一半；天然气方面，出口已完全停止。\n在时间维度上，形势正加速恶化。\"三月份已经很艰难，但四月将更糟，\"Birol说，\"如果海峡整个四月持续关闭，我们损失的原油和成品油将是三月份的两倍。\"\n他以季节作喻：\"北半球的四月通常意味着春天的到来，但现在，它可能感觉像是冬天的开始。\"\n发展中国家首当其冲，亚非经济体面临债务危机\n在受冲击最严重的群体中，Birol将发展中国家列为重点。\n他表示，高油价、高气价与高粮食价格叠加加速通胀，将对这些国家的经济增长造成沉重打击。\"我担心许多发展中国家的外债将大幅攀升，\"他说。\n就具体暴露风险较高的国家而言，Birol点名亚洲的石油进口依赖型经济体，包括韩国、日本，以及印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，同时指出非洲国家也将受到严重波及。\n上述国家共同的脆弱性在于财政腾挪空间有限，难以抵御持续的外部能源价格冲击。\n危机性质：地缘政治驱动，修复路径充满不确定性\nBirol在采访中反复强调，此次危机与历史上历次能源供应冲击存在本质差异——它并非源于能源市场自身的供需失衡，而是地缘政治冲突直接摧毁物理基础设施的结果。\n这一属性决定了其持续时间和修复路径高度依赖政治局势走向，市场定价机制难以有效发挥作用。\n此次多品类同步受冲击的格局——油气、粮食、化肥、石化、氦气与贸易航运同步受损——亦令全球供应链面临有史以来最复杂的压力测试。\nBirol数周来已在多场公开采访中持续传递悲观预期，此次措辞为其中最为警示性的一次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1.5,"REET":1.5,"IEA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":550282748190936,"gmtCreate":1775372040774,"gmtModify":1775373506229,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212352499387392","authorIdStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/550282748190936","repostId":"2625964592","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625964592","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775373347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625964592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-05 15:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625964592","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-05 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","TSM":"台积电","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - 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在3月财报会议上亦确认，博通已提前锁定2026年至2028年关键组件的供应，涵盖先进制程晶圆、高带宽内存（HBM）及基板。这一超前布局本身，正是当前供应紧张程度的直接写照。PCB交货周期暴涨十倍在800G/1.6T高阶光收发模组中，PCB是连接外部线缆与内部光电元件的关键接口。这类小型PCB由于空间极小且须处理极高频信号，通常采用mSAP（改良型半加成法）工艺，技术门槛远高于普通PCB，主要由具备高阶HDI或IC基板技术的厂商供应。PCB沦为瓶颈的根源在于工艺重叠。其mSAP制程与AI服务器所需的IC基板制程存在部分交集，当全球抢购HBM产能时，小型PCB的产能随之遭到挤压。与此同时，1.6T模组对信号品质要求极为严苛，PCB须采用超低损耗材料与精密阻抗控制，并非一般PCB厂商所能承接。更关键的是，一旦更换供应商，认证周期长达六个月以上。这正是谷歌、Meta等超大规模云厂商宁愿签订三至四年长期合约、也要锁定既有供应商产能的原因。激光器：良率不足三成，磷化铟产能成核心卡点激光器元件已成为CPO（共封装光学）时代的另一重大瓶颈。为支撑1.6T乃至更高带宽，激光器须在数据中心高温环境下保持波长稳定，对\"超高功率\"且\"极低噪声\"的连续波（CW）激光有严苛要求。即便供应商能够产出激光晶粒，经严苛可靠性测试后，符合CPO高标准要求的良率可能不足30%。产能端的约束同样严峻。高功率激光器依赖磷化铟（InP）技术，而全球具备6英寸InP大规模量产能力的厂商屈指可数。若上游InP外延片厂商或 Coherent、Lumentum 等拥有自有产能的厂商订单爆满，下游无论有多少封装厂，均无激光晶粒可用。更深层的结构性压力来自CPO架构本身对激光器需求的放大效应。在传统光模组中，一个模组配置一个激光器；而在CPO方案中，为降低热影响，业界转向使用ELSFP（外部激光光源模组）架构，导致激光晶粒需求量与交换机数量之间不再是线性关系，而是成倍数增长，直接冲击原本就已紧张的InP外延产能。晶圆与先进封装：真正的\"超级大堵车\"在后道在晶圆供应方面，Natarajan Ramachandran直接表示\"台积电产能达到极限\"，预计台积电先进制程产线将在2026年形成瓶颈，尽管台积电计划持续扩产至2027年。然而，真正的\"超级大堵车\"发生在后道先进封装环节。进入CPO时代，台积电须导入COUPE（紧凑型通用光子引擎）技术，通过混合键合（Hybrid Bonding）将光学芯片与硅芯片进行立体堆叠。这种全新封装技术难度极高、测试周期极长，导致设备初期单位产出（UPH）难以快速提升。竞争格局进一步加剧了产能压力。2026年，博通面对的产能竞争对手不再只是传统网络通信厂商，而是英伟达、苹果、AMD、高通，以及正在重金自研ASIC芯片的谷歌、Meta、OpenAI。当最顶尖的AI算力芯片与最高阶的1.6T网络交换器同时涌入台积电同一条产线，产能实质上已进入\"配给制\"。即便台积电现在决定大规模扩产，厂房建设、无尘室竣工、引入ASML极紫外光（EUV）光刻设备及各类高端测试设备的交货周期动辄十二至十八个月。这意味着2026年的产能，实际上在2024至2025年间便已被各大厂锁定——现在才追加订单的客户，只能等到2027年新产能释放。全链条外溢：二线供应商扩产滞后，瓶颈蔓延产能压力正向整个供应链外溢。先进封装并不仅仅是封装厂的事，真正容易形成卡点的环节包括：CoWoS必须配套的ABF基板、先进封装必备的底部填充胶（Underfill）、AI功耗爆炸带来的散热需求、KGD测试与老化测试（Burn-in）、CPO与光模组，以及TSV和中介层的切割与钻孔等。台积电董事长魏哲家曾表示\"CoWoS产能仍然不够\"——他缺乏的并非资金，而是配套供应商的产能：载板厂、探针卡厂商、底部填充胶供应商等。台积电可以投入巨资建设厂房，却无法迫使这些中小供应商在短期内将产能翻倍。ABF基板扩产动辄需要两至三年，老化测试时间极长，光纤阵列对位容差在次微米级、难以完全自动化——每一个环节都在拖慢整体节奏。随着英伟达持续推进GPU架构的硬件迭代，供应链瓶颈与涨价问题或将成为结构性常态而非周期性扰动。对投资者而言，产能卡点所在，正是定价权集中之处。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGU":0.6,"AVGO":1.95,"AVGX":0.6,"TSM":1.87,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"AVS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":551087593541840,"gmtCreate":1775564165799,"gmtModify":1775566974677,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mark&nbsp;","listText":"Mark&nbsp;","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/551087593541840","repostId":"2625302879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625302879","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775563968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625302879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-07 20:12","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625302879","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。","content":"<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself, but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","REET":"iShares Trust iShares Global REIT ETF","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","BK4129":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769406","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625302879","content_text":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol发出迄今最严厉警告：此次海湾能源冲击的烈度超过1973年、1979年与2022年危机的总和，全球经济正濒临一场多维度的供应崩溃。\nBirol周二接受法国《费加罗报》采访时披露，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中约三分之一受到严重破坏。\n他表示，若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损失的原油与成品油数量将达三月份的两倍——\"我们正在进入一个'黑色四月'\"。\n此次危机的破坏力之所以前所未有，在于其波及范围已远超单纯的石油领域，同时冲击天然气、粮食、化肥、石化产品、氦气及全球贸易体系。Birol明确表示，这场危机的根源不在于能源本身，而在于地缘政治，这也令其对前景深感悲观。\n75处能源设施受损，修复之路漫长\nIEA目前正对海湾地区的油田、炼油厂与能源终端实施实时监控。\n75处设施已遭袭击并受损，逾三分之一损毁严重，修缮工程耗资将达数百亿美元，且将造成部分能源流的长期中断，进一步收紧全球供应，并加剧霍尔木兹海峡这一关键咽喉要道的运输压力。\n在各受损国中，恢复速度分化显著。\nBirol指出，沙特阿拉伯凭借强大的工程能力与充裕的财政资源，有望相对较快恢复；而伊拉克的处境则远为严峻，约1500万人依赖油气收入为生，该国已损失约三分之二的石油收入，正逼近经济瘫痪的临界点。他说：\n\n\"中东此前一直是全球可靠的能源枢纽，要恢复到这一地位，将需要很长时间。\"\n\n产量腰斩，天然气出口全面停摆\n在产量损失方面，Birol的描述触目惊心。他表示，相关国家目前的石油产量仅略超战前水平的一半；天然气方面，出口已完全停止。\n在时间维度上，形势正加速恶化。\"三月份已经很艰难，但四月将更糟，\"Birol说，\"如果海峡整个四月持续关闭，我们损失的原油和成品油将是三月份的两倍。\"\n他以季节作喻：\"北半球的四月通常意味着春天的到来，但现在，它可能感觉像是冬天的开始。\"\n发展中国家首当其冲，亚非经济体面临债务危机\n在受冲击最严重的群体中，Birol将发展中国家列为重点。\n他表示，高油价、高气价与高粮食价格叠加加速通胀，将对这些国家的经济增长造成沉重打击。\"我担心许多发展中国家的外债将大幅攀升，\"他说。\n就具体暴露风险较高的国家而言，Birol点名亚洲的石油进口依赖型经济体，包括韩国、日本，以及印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，同时指出非洲国家也将受到严重波及。\n上述国家共同的脆弱性在于财政腾挪空间有限，难以抵御持续的外部能源价格冲击。\n危机性质：地缘政治驱动，修复路径充满不确定性\nBirol在采访中反复强调，此次危机与历史上历次能源供应冲击存在本质差异——它并非源于能源市场自身的供需失衡，而是地缘政治冲突直接摧毁物理基础设施的结果。\n这一属性决定了其持续时间和修复路径高度依赖政治局势走向，市场定价机制难以有效发挥作用。\n此次多品类同步受冲击的格局——油气、粮食、化肥、石化、氦气与贸易航运同步受损——亦令全球供应链面临有史以来最复杂的压力测试。\nBirol数周来已在多场公开采访中持续传递悲观预期，此次措辞为其中最为警示性的一次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1.5,"REET":1.5,"IEA":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":550282748190936,"gmtCreate":1775372040774,"gmtModify":1775373506229,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/550282748190936","repostId":"2625964592","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625964592","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775373347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625964592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-05 15:15","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625964592","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-05 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding its production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by large manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","SG9999001424.SGD":"United E-Commerce Fund SGD","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","TSM":"台积电","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - 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在3月财报会议上亦确认，博通已提前锁定2026年至2028年关键组件的供应，涵盖先进制程晶圆、高带宽内存（HBM）及基板。这一超前布局本身，正是当前供应紧张程度的直接写照。PCB交货周期暴涨十倍在800G/1.6T高阶光收发模组中，PCB是连接外部线缆与内部光电元件的关键接口。这类小型PCB由于空间极小且须处理极高频信号，通常采用mSAP（改良型半加成法）工艺，技术门槛远高于普通PCB，主要由具备高阶HDI或IC基板技术的厂商供应。PCB沦为瓶颈的根源在于工艺重叠。其mSAP制程与AI服务器所需的IC基板制程存在部分交集，当全球抢购HBM产能时，小型PCB的产能随之遭到挤压。与此同时，1.6T模组对信号品质要求极为严苛，PCB须采用超低损耗材料与精密阻抗控制，并非一般PCB厂商所能承接。更关键的是，一旦更换供应商，认证周期长达六个月以上。这正是谷歌、Meta等超大规模云厂商宁愿签订三至四年长期合约、也要锁定既有供应商产能的原因。激光器：良率不足三成，磷化铟产能成核心卡点激光器元件已成为CPO（共封装光学）时代的另一重大瓶颈。为支撑1.6T乃至更高带宽，激光器须在数据中心高温环境下保持波长稳定，对\"超高功率\"且\"极低噪声\"的连续波（CW）激光有严苛要求。即便供应商能够产出激光晶粒，经严苛可靠性测试后，符合CPO高标准要求的良率可能不足30%。产能端的约束同样严峻。高功率激光器依赖磷化铟（InP）技术，而全球具备6英寸InP大规模量产能力的厂商屈指可数。若上游InP外延片厂商或 Coherent、Lumentum 等拥有自有产能的厂商订单爆满，下游无论有多少封装厂，均无激光晶粒可用。更深层的结构性压力来自CPO架构本身对激光器需求的放大效应。在传统光模组中，一个模组配置一个激光器；而在CPO方案中，为降低热影响，业界转向使用ELSFP（外部激光光源模组）架构，导致激光晶粒需求量与交换机数量之间不再是线性关系，而是成倍数增长，直接冲击原本就已紧张的InP外延产能。晶圆与先进封装：真正的\"超级大堵车\"在后道在晶圆供应方面，Natarajan Ramachandran直接表示\"台积电产能达到极限\"，预计台积电先进制程产线将在2026年形成瓶颈，尽管台积电计划持续扩产至2027年。然而，真正的\"超级大堵车\"发生在后道先进封装环节。进入CPO时代，台积电须导入COUPE（紧凑型通用光子引擎）技术，通过混合键合（Hybrid Bonding）将光学芯片与硅芯片进行立体堆叠。这种全新封装技术难度极高、测试周期极长，导致设备初期单位产出（UPH）难以快速提升。竞争格局进一步加剧了产能压力。2026年，博通面对的产能竞争对手不再只是传统网络通信厂商，而是英伟达、苹果、AMD、高通，以及正在重金自研ASIC芯片的谷歌、Meta、OpenAI。当最顶尖的AI算力芯片与最高阶的1.6T网络交换器同时涌入台积电同一条产线，产能实质上已进入\"配给制\"。即便台积电现在决定大规模扩产，厂房建设、无尘室竣工、引入ASML极紫外光（EUV）光刻设备及各类高端测试设备的交货周期动辄十二至十八个月。这意味着2026年的产能，实际上在2024至2025年间便已被各大厂锁定——现在才追加订单的客户，只能等到2027年新产能释放。全链条外溢：二线供应商扩产滞后，瓶颈蔓延产能压力正向整个供应链外溢。先进封装并不仅仅是封装厂的事，真正容易形成卡点的环节包括：CoWoS必须配套的ABF基板、先进封装必备的底部填充胶（Underfill）、AI功耗爆炸带来的散热需求、KGD测试与老化测试（Burn-in）、CPO与光模组，以及TSV和中介层的切割与钻孔等。台积电董事长魏哲家曾表示\"CoWoS产能仍然不够\"——他缺乏的并非资金，而是配套供应商的产能：载板厂、探针卡厂商、底部填充胶供应商等。台积电可以投入巨资建设厂房，却无法迫使这些中小供应商在短期内将产能翻倍。ABF基板扩产动辄需要两至三年，老化测试时间极长，光纤阵列对位容差在次微米级、难以完全自动化——每一个环节都在拖慢整体节奏。随着英伟达持续推进GPU架构的硬件迭代，供应链瓶颈与涨价问题或将成为结构性常态而非周期性扰动。对投资者而言，产能卡点所在，正是定价权集中之处。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGU":0.6,"AVGO":1.95,"AVGX":0.6,"TSM":1.87,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"AVS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":551089018245120,"gmtCreate":1775564259961,"gmtModify":1775566983148,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice to know&nbsp;","listText":"Nice to know&nbsp;","text":"Nice to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/551089018245120","repostId":"2625993708","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625993708","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775562807,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625993708?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-07 19:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625993708","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"当OpenAI冲刺万亿估值，掌舵人Altman却身陷“撒谎”的信任危机。随着公司拥抱资本并涉足敏感领域，“安全”底线被悄然剥离。当AGI的终极钥匙交托给游走于现实与虚构边缘的野心家，人类面对的，究竟是改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大骗局？","content":"<p><html><body>When a company with the technology to reshape civilization rushes to a trillion-dollar valuation, the market cares about growth and computing power, but there is only one core issue around Sam Altman: trust. A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging the existence of a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Security Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>When a company with the technology to reshape civilization rushes to a trillion-dollar valuation, the market cares about growth and computing power, but there is only one core issue around Sam Altman: trust. A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging the existence of a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Security Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1582986433.USD":"M&G (LUX) INCOME ALLOCATION \"A-H\" (USDHDG) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2360108059.USD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL 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ACC","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1803068623.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE \"AH1\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625993708","content_text":"当一家掌握重塑文明技术的公司冲向万亿估值时，市场关心增长与算力，但围绕Sam Altman的核心问题却只有一个：信任。一份横跨数百人访谈的调查提出质疑——这位AI时代的关键人物，是否值得托付未来？\n据《纽约客》4月6日发表的深度报道，对Altman的质疑并非来自外部，而是出自他最亲近的同事与董事。一份内部备忘录的第一条指控就是“撒谎”。在他们眼中，Altman习惯对不同对象讲述不同版本的现实，而这个人，正主导AI的走向。\n2023年被解雇又迅速复职的五天权力风暴，没有澄清问题，反而加深疑问：当资本、员工与技术力量集体站队，一位CEO是否已经超越了任何实质性约束？\n与此同时，OpenAI正深入军方、中东资本与敏感国家基础设施领域，而公司内部安全承诺却被削弱，“安全”甚至从核心业务中消失。理想主义外壳，正在被现实利益重塑。\n问题因此升级——这不只是个人诚信，而是结构性风险：当AGI的钥匙集中在少数人手中，而其可信度存疑，人类是否还拥有“刹车权”？\nAltman曾说，AI需要一点“虚构”的魔力。但真正的不确定在于：当现实与叙事边界开始模糊，我们面对的，究竟是一个改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大故事。\n\"谎言\"——前同事的秘密备忘录\n2023年秋，OpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever以消失消息的形式，向另外三位董事秘密传递了约70页的内部文件汇编。这批材料包括Slack聊天记录、人力资源文件及说明性文字，部分内容以手机拍照方式留存，显然是为了规避公司设备的监控。\n这批内部文件此前从未被完整披露。其中一份专门针对Altman的备忘录以一份清单开篇，标题为\"Sam持续展现出……\"，第一条即是：\"撒谎。\"\nSutskever积累这些担忧有其思想脉络。他曾是Altman的朋友，2019年甚至在OpenAI办公室主持了联合创始人Greg Brockman的婚礼。\n但随着他愈发相信公司正在逼近其终极目标——创造出能够与人类认知能力相媲美乃至超越人类的AI——他对Altman的疑虑与日俱增。他当时对另一位董事说：\n\n\"我不认为Sam是那个应该握住按钮的人。\"\n\nAI政策专家Helen Toner与企业家Tasha McCauley收到这批文件时，视之为印证：这两位女性已经各自形成了类似判断。\"他被赋予了人类的未来，\"一位知情董事对《纽约客》说，\"但他不值得信任。\"\n从Y Combinator到OpenAI：一个争议性崛起\nAltman并非横空出世。他的职业模式在远早于OpenAI之前便已形成。\n他在斯坦福大学读了一年半后，加入了著名程序员Paul Graham创办的创业孵化器Y Combinator（Y.C.）。\n他的第一家公司Loopt是一款基于手机位置的原始社交网络，折射出他的一个长期特质：将模糊的规则解读为对自己有利的规则。\nLoopt时期，已有员工对他的夸大其词感到困惑。一名前员工回忆，Altman曾大肆吹嘘自己是乒乓球冠军，\"密苏里州高中乒乓球冠军之类的\"，但实际上是公司里打得最差的人之一。\n一位曾被投资者安排担任Altman\"监护人\"的资深员工Mark Jacobstein后来将这种习惯描述为：\n\n\"'我认为我也许能做到'和'我已经做到了'之间的界限模糊，在最极端的形式下，就会走向Theranos那样的骗局（硅谷著名骗局）。\"\n\n2014年，Graham退休前将Altman擢升为Y.C.主席。然而到2018年，多位Y.C.合伙人已对Altman的行为深感不满，据多位当时在场人士的陈述，Graham夫妇曾与Altman进行了一次坦率谈话，实质上是迫使他离开。\nGraham曾私下对Y.C.同事表示，在Altman被要求离开之前，\"Sam一直在欺骗我们。\"\nAltman本人坚持声称自己从未被Y.C.解雇，且离开完全出于本人意愿。Graham的公开表述则相对模糊，他告诉《纽约客》：\"我们没有法律权力解雇任何人。我们所能做的只是施加道义压力。\"\nOpenAI的创立：用末日叙事募集理想主义\n2015年，Altman向Elon Musk发出了一封电子邮件，由此奠定了OpenAI的创立基础。\n此前，Altman一贯是科技乐观主义者，但他的AI话语迅速转向了末日论调。他在私下和公开场合反复警告：AI技术不应由追求利润的大公司主导。\"如果这件事终究要发生，\"他写信给Musk，\"最好由Google之外的人来做。\"\nOpenAI由此成立，被注册为非营利组织，董事会负有将人类安全置于公司利益之上的法定职责，甚至高于公司生存本身。\n创始人公开声称，AI可能是人类历史上最危险的发明，因此需要一种非同寻常的公司治理结构。这一叙事极具感召力：它成功地将原本分散在谷歌、学术界的顶尖研究人员招募到一家资金匮乏的新组织。\n据Sutskever回忆，当时的招募口号是：\"你将拯救世界。\"\n然而，内部矛盾从一开始便暗流涌动。根据Dario Amodei（此后创立Anthropic）积累的超过200页私人笔记——这批文件从未公开披露——Altman在早期便流露出不同信号。\n在2019年与微软谈判10亿美元投资期间，Amodei将维护公司章程中\"合并与协助\"条款（如果另一家公司率先安全开发出AGI，OpenAI将协助而非竞争）列为首要谈判底线，并得到Altman的口头承诺。\n但交易临近签署时，Amodei发现合同中已悄然加入一项赋予微软阻止OpenAI任何合并行为的条款。他当场质问Altman，后者起初否认该条款存在，Amodei不得不逐字朗读合同文本，并让另一名同事当面确认。\nAmodei后来在笔记中写道：\"他的话几乎肯定是谎言\"。\n\"政变\"与复辟：五天内的权力戏剧\n2023年11月的那个周末，当董事会通过视频电话宣读声明、告知Altman他已不再是OpenAI员工时，他正身处拉斯维加斯观看F1赛车。\n消息震动了整个科技界。微软在解雇发生前数分钟才被告知——这家已向OpenAI投入逾130亿美元的战略伙伴措手不及。\"我非常震惊，\"微软CEO Satya Nadella后来表示。\nLinkedIn联合创始人、OpenAI投资人Reid Hoffman随即展开电话调查，试图弄清Altman究竟犯了什么错。\"我根本不知道他妈发生了什么，\"Hoffman告诉《纽约客》，\"我们在找挪用公款的证据，或者性骚扰，但什么都没找到。\"\nAltman返回旧金山自己的2700万美元豪宅，迅速组建起一个非正式\"流亡政府\"，成员包括Airbnb联合创始人Brian Chesky、投资人Ron Conway及危机公关人士Chris Lehane。他的电话记录显示，他每天通话时间超过12小时。\n与此同时，他协同微软CEO Nadella协调口径，并向代理CEO Mira Murati传递了一个明确信号：他的盟友们\"正在全力出击\"，并正在\"发掘负面信息\"以损害包括她在内的那些曾反对他的人的名誉。（Altman表示不记得有过这样的对话。）\n在强大的外部压力下，多数员工联署了要求Altman复职的公开信，Sutskever最终也在信上签字。\n董事会被迫妥协，Helen Toner和Tasha McCauley失去了席位，而新加入的两位董事（前哈佛大学校长Lawrence Summers和前Facebook首席技术官Bret Taylor）均是在与Altman深度沟通后才被选定的。\n\"你能不能这样做：把Bret、Larry Summers、Adam作为董事会，让我担任CEO，然后由Bret负责调查？\"Altman如此发短信给Nadella。不到五天，他便复职了。\n员工们将这段历史称为\"the Blip\"（短暂消失），借用漫威电影中的情节：人物消失后重现，本人毫发无损，而世界已然天翻地覆。\n那份从未落纸的调查报告\n被解雇的董事们将接受独立调查作为离职条件之一。OpenAI聘请了曾主导安然、世通内部调查的律所WilmerHale负责这项\"审查\"。但据六名接近调查的知情人士称，整个过程似乎被刻意设计为限制透明度。\n调查人员起初未与多位关键当事人接触；部分受访员工因担忧匿名性不足而不敢坦诚发言。\"他们只关注董事会风波期间的狭窄时间窗口，而非他长期以来的诚信历史，\"一名受访员工说。\n2024年3月，OpenAI宣布Altman获得清白，但没有发布任何调查报告。公司官网仅挂出约800字的声明，承认存在\"信任破裂\"。\n据知情人士透露，之所以没有书面报告，是因为根本没有写，调查结论仅以口头简报的形式向Summers和Taylor呈报。\"审查得出的结论并不是Sam诚实，\"一名接近调查的人士说，\"但它确定他可以继续担任CEO。\"\n数位曾在场的前员工和现任员工对这种不公开的做法感到震惊。Altman复职后不久便重新加入了董事会。\n从“人类安全优先”的非营利承诺到营利化再资本化\nOpenAI最初的设定，是用非营利结构约束商业冲动，董事会对“人类安全优先于公司成功甚至生存”负有义务。但内部记录显示，这一承诺一直在被侵蚀。\n2022年12月的一次董事会会议上，Altman向成员们保证，GPT-4的若干功能已通过安全审查委员会批准。Toner要求查阅文件后发现，最具争议的功能——允许用户\"微调\"模型和将其部署为个人助理——均未获批准。\n此外，她还得知微软在印度提前发布了ChatGPT的早期版本，跳过了必要的安全审查，而Altman在与董事会的多次长时间汇报中从未提及此事。\n当安全研究员Jan Leike被任命领导\"超级对齐团队\"时，官方声明承诺该团队将获得公司算力的\"20%\"。但据四名亲历者陈述，实际分配的算力在1%至2%之间，且\"大部分超级对齐算力实际上用的是最老旧、芯片最差的集群\"。\nLeike向Murati投诉，后者告诉他不要再提这件事，因为\"这个承诺从来就不现实\"。\n2024年，Sutskever和Leike相继离职。Leike在社交媒体上写道：\"安全文化和流程已经让位于闪亮的产品。\"OpenAI此后陆续解散了超级对齐团队，在最新的美国国税局申报表中，\"安全\"一词也从公司\"最重要业务活动\"的描述中消失。\n万亿赌局：向专制政权押注AI未来\nAltman在商业上最雄心勃勃的赌注，也是外界最感忧虑的——是将AI基础设施建设向中东专制政权延伸。\n早在2016年，他便结识了沙特王储Mohammed bin Salman，并私下称其为\"朋友\"。2018年，记者Jamal Khashoggi被杀一周后，Altman宣布加入沙特主导的未来城市项目Neom顾问委员会，随后在同事强烈反对下才退出。\n但据一名政策顾问回忆，Altman随即开始询问是否能以某种方式绕开道义压力继续从沙特获得资金，\"问题不是'这是否是坏事'，而是'如果我们这么做，会有什么后果？有出口管制问题吗？会有制裁吗？我能不能不被发现？'\"\n与此并行，他将目光转向阿联酋。阿联酋总统之弟、国家情报总监Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan掌控着约1.5万亿美元的主权财富，他同时运营着国家控股AI集团G42。\nAltman与其建立了深度私人关系，在社交媒体上称之为\"亲爱的挚友\"，并曾于2024年受邀登上其价值2.5亿美元的超级游艇\"Maryah\"号。\n2023年，Altman开始秘密推动一项被称为\"ChipCo\"的计划：由海湾国家出资数百亿美元，在中东建设大规模芯片代工厂和数据中心。\"据我的理解，整件事发生时董事会毫不知情，\"一位知情董事说。\n美国拜登政府对此深感警惕，商务部官员明确告知Altman：\"我们不打算在阿联酋建造先进芯片。\"\n然而，随着特朗普重返白宫，局面彻底改变。就职第一周，Altman便站在白宫罗斯福厅宣布\"星际之门\"（Stargate）计划——一项旨在在美国境内构建庞大AI基础设施网络、总额达5000亿美元的合资企业。\n随后，拜登政府的AI技术出口限制被废除，Altman陪同特朗普出访沙特王室，而沙特随即宣布成立一家国家支持的大型AI公司。与此同时，OpenAI宣布在阿布扎比建设一个面积相当于中央公园七倍、耗电量堪比迈阿密整座城市的数据中心园区。\n\"我们正在建造门户，通过这些门户我们正在真正地召唤异类，\"一名前OpenAI高管说，\"Sam在中东又增加了一个门户。这是有史以来最不负责任的事情之一。\"\n监管与游说：从“欢迎监管”到对安全法案的强硬反击\n在公众形象的塑造上，Altman曾长期扮演科技巨头中的异类——他主动呼吁政府监管AI，2023年在美国参议院司法委员会作证时甚至提议设立新的联邦监管机构。\n路易斯安那州参议员John Kennedy看起来颇受感动，靠在手上说，也许应该让Altman本人来执行规则。\n但与此同时，据《时代》杂志报道，OpenAI在2022至2023年间成功游说削弱了欧盟一项旨在加强对大型AI公司监管的立法。在加州，当一项与Altman此前国会证词条款高度相近的AI安全法案提交立法机构后，OpenAI公开表示反对，并在私下发出威胁。\n\"在这一年里，我们看到了来自OpenAI的手段越来越狡猾和具有欺骗性的行为，\"一名立法助手对《纽约客》说。投资人Conway游说了包括Nancy Pelosi和Gavin Newsom在内的政界领袖，该法案最终在通过议会后被Newsom否决。\n今年，一个名为\"引领未来\"（Leading the Future）的亲AI超级政治行动委员会开始资助反对AI监管候选人。\nOpenAI官方表示不会向此类组织捐款，但该委员会的主要捐款人之一是Greg Brockman，承诺捐出5000万美元。同年，Brockman夫妇还向支持特朗普的\"MAGA Inc.\"捐赠了2500万美元。\n权力的解剖：顺从他人与操控他人的矛盾统一体\n在《纽约客》采访的数十名当事人中，大多数人分享了对Altman某种共同的心理画像。一名董事说：\n\n\"他不受真相约束。他有两种几乎从不同时出现在同一个人身上的特质：第一是强烈渴望取悦他人、在每一次互动中被人喜欢；第二是几乎带有反社会性质的、对欺骗他人所带来后果的漠然。\"\n\n这位董事不是唯一一个自发使用\"反社会\"一词的人。Altman在Y Combinator第一届学员中的同期者、被视为技术圈精神遗产的Aaron Swartz，在去世前数年曾向多位友人表达了对Altman的担忧，措辞强烈。\n多名微软高级管理人员也在采访中表示，尽管Nadella长期力挺，微软与Altman的关系已变得紧张。其中一人说：\n\n\"他误导、歪曲、重新谈判、食言，我认为他有一定的可能——虽然不大但确实存在——最终被人记住为Bernie Madoff或Sam Bankman-Fried级别的骗子。\"\n\n对于这些指控，Altman及其支持者的解释是，他的行为不过是\"正常的竞争性商业实践\"，而他的批评者则是科幻式\"末日论者\"，或是嫉妒他成功的失败者。\n\"他太沉浸于自我信念，\"前董事成员Sue Yoon说，\"所以他做了一些在现实世界中毫无逻辑的事。但他不活在现实世界里。\"\n一万亿美元的问题：他是否应该主宰这一切\nOpenAI据报道正准备IPO，潜在估值接近1万亿美元。Altman驾驭着人类有史以来增长最快的初创企业之一，其融资规模——最近一轮单轮即超过1200亿美元，为历史最大私募融资规模的四倍。\n在可预见的未来，这家公司的决策将影响数以亿计的人的生活：AI何时应当停止，何时应当继续；它应当帮助谁，拒绝服务谁；在战场上，它是否可以在没有人类监督的情况下自主决策。\n问题不仅在于Altman是一个道德上有瑕疵的人——任何一个运营过大公司的人都知道，这本身不足为奇。\n问题在于：OpenAI的存在理由，自始至终建立在一个前提之上——它与其他公司不同，它的领导者必须具备\"非同寻常的诚信\"，因为他们掌握的是一项可以改变文明的技术。\nSutskever最初对这一使命深信不疑，正是因为这个信念，他拒绝了谷歌的千万美元年薪。\n在一次采访中，记者问Altman，运营一家AI公司是否要求\"更高的诚信标准\"。\n这本应是一个容易回答的问题。他迟疑了，然后说，\"我认为很多行业都可能对社会产生巨大影响，无论好坏。\"片刻后，他补充道：\"是的，这需要更高的诚信，我每天都感受到这份责任的重量。\"\n然而，OpenAI最新的IRS申报表中，\"安全\"作为公司核心业务的描述已经消失。曾经的招募口号：\"你将拯救世界\"，已被公司内部的新口号所取代：\"感受AGI。\"\n正如Altman曾以近乎哲学的口吻向媒体说的那样，他允许旗下AI模型保留一定程度的\"虚构\"能力，而非追求百分之百的准确性，因为\"那种魔力，是人们最喜欢的东西\"。这也许，是理解他本人的最好注脚。▪","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFX":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFT":1.82,"AIYY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}