To paraphrase a famous quote; there are things that we know, known knowns, and there are things that we don't know, known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns, things that we don't know we don't know. The last category manifests as black swans, and gets expressed in our portfolios as huge 5+ sigma events.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  Still yet to price in 10% tariffs on the world and 145% tariffs on china

Traded (gambled) my way back from yesterday's loss. Still down from all time highs, but I'll get back there eventually.

After getting burned from trump's tweet, I've started trading with his truthsocial and x accounts open, just in case. But either way, the rally brought us back to where we were prior to the tariffs, which doesn't make sense, since we still have 10% tariffs on the whole world, plus whatever rate China is at. Today's pullback brings it to a more sensible level, but I'm still bearish.

$QQQ Custom 250411 404.0P/415.0P/465.0C/472.5C$ Not aiming for max profit, but a gap in either direction tomorrow morning.

$QQQ VERTICAL 250409 CALL 416.0/CALL 426.0$ Full disclosure. Blew up today when trump announced the suspension of tariffs. It's bad when you're delta negative and the market pops up 12%. He's got indices acting like meme stocks.

In theory,  yes, because Iphones are a luxury product where high prices enhances exclusivity. I don't think Apple would be able to manufacture iphones in the US, though, the lack of the appropriate supply chains have been brought up many times before. If they could though, I can imagine the advertising; The Iphone, handcrafted in America, for Americans. $5000.

Buy high sell higher. Sell low, buy back lower.

$QQQ Custom 250409 411.0P/416.0C/416.0P/426.0C$ Somewhat bearish position, with max loss occuring if market rallies overnight, but with max profit if it stays at $416.  Still potential for profit if the market slides down further, but I'd close the call spread and buy back the put tomorrow depending on the price action.

$QQQ 20250409 427.0 PUT$ Main profit from one of the legs of the strangle I bought.

$QQQ CALENDAR 250408/250411 PUT 410.0/PUT 410.0$ Full disclosure. One of my biggest single losses. Should have closed the trade earlier.

The tariffs on SG are based on trade deficits, not how much SG tariffs US products. I doubt there's anything SG can do to prevent or avoid this. Relatively speaking it's still in a better place in comparison to it's neighbours.

China retaliated, Trump raised tariffs to 104%, China stops rare earth exports and stops purchases of US agricultural products. It's gonna be very, very red.

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ I'm unusual in that I have a tiny portfolio trading solely options, but if I had stock, I'd have bought long dated protective puts for them.

Banking on ridiculous IV crush post earnings report!

If I had cash, I'd park it in treasuries at least till the news cycle is a little bit more optimistic. There's more downside risk in the short term.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  It's a little difficult to overcome the negativity when there are people out in the streets burning Teslas and there are literal Nazis coming out to defend the brand..

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  Technically, they're exempt from the tariffs due to the clause exempting semiconductors, but the market will still punish them along with everything else.

I'm actually looking to buy a vacuum insulated mug, and the eat sleep trade repeat motto on it is practically my life at the moment.

$QQQ Straddle 250409 425.0C/425.0P$  Weekend straddle. I'm anticipating other countries to retaliate against tariffs, so the market should keep going down, but you cant rule out the possibility of a weekend rally, however improbable.