fedagent28 personal page - To The Moon

fedagent28

fedagent28

No personal profile

2Follow

0Followers

0Topic

0Badge

06-17

Valued using EV/ bubble froth?

Regencell Bioscience Soars Another 55% After Surging Over 46,000% This Year

06-14

Tesla bubble?

This Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock "Tremendously Overpriced." The Charts Show Why

05-16

Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up in China?

Sorry, the original content has been removed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4184422615922462","uuid":"4184422615922462","gmtCreate":1721410462476,"gmtModify":1747406748005,"name":"fedagent28","pinyin":"fedagent28","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":3,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":1,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"init","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-1","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Boss Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $100,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.12.06","exceedPercentage":"60.46%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-1","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Debut Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 500 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.12.03","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":447032120291368,"gmtCreate":1750147434580,"gmtModify":1750148415486,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Valued using EV/ bubble froth?&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Valued using EV/ bubble froth?&nbsp;","text":"Valued using EV/ bubble froth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447032120291368","repostId":"1168861935","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168861935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1750147200,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168861935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-17 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Regencell Bioscience Soars Another 55% After Surging Over 46,000% This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168861935","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Regencell Bioscience shares jumped another 35% in premarket trading on Tuesday.A biotech stock focused on herbal medicine has surged by more than 46,000% so far this year and yet, the company itself h","content":"<div>\n<p>Regencell Bioscience shares jumped another 55% in premarket trading on Tuesday.A biotech stock focused on herbal medicine has surged by more than 46,000% so far this year and yet, the company itself ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-16/herbal-medicine-stock-with-no-sales-sees-wild-rally-top-64-000?srnd=homepage-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Regencell Bioscience Soars Another 55% After Surging Over 46,000% This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRegencell Bioscience Soars Another 55% After Surging Over 46,000% This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-17 16:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-16/herbal-medicine-stock-with-no-sales-sees-wild-rally-top-64-000?srnd=homepage-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Regencell Bioscience shares jumped another 55% in premarket trading on Tuesday.A biotech stock focused on herbal medicine has surged by more than 46,000% so far this year and yet, the company itself ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-16/herbal-medicine-stock-with-no-sales-sees-wild-rally-top-64-000?srnd=homepage-asia\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RGC":"脑再生科技"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-16/herbal-medicine-stock-with-no-sales-sees-wild-rally-top-64-000?srnd=homepage-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168861935","content_text":"Regencell Bioscience shares jumped another 55% in premarket trading on Tuesday.A biotech stock focused on herbal medicine has surged by more than 46,000% so far this year and yet, the company itself has made zero revenue — much less turned a profit.The unbelievable rally has transformed Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited, a penny stock as recently as April, to one worth nearly $30 billion in market value. A year ago, the stock had a market capitalization of just $53 million. This is despite the company having a net loss of $4.4 million for its fiscal year that ended June 2024, a 28% decrease from the previous year.Earlier this month the company said its board approved a 38-for-1 stock split. When the split took effect Monday, shares rose 283% — their biggest one-day jump in nearly a year on a closing basis — to a record high, triggering more than 10 volatility halts.Shares of the company have been on a bizarre, 460-fold tear in 2025, with little to no news from the firm. The Hong Kong-based firm, which debuted on the Nasdaq Capital Market in 2021, is in the research and development stage and has not generated any revenue since inception, according to its most-recent annual filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.A representative for Regencell didn’t respond to a Bloomberg News request for comment.Incorporated in the Cayman Islands, the firm aims to treat neurological disorders like ADHD and autism spectrum disorder through traditional herb-based medicines, according to its website. Its traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula, which forms the basis of its product candidates, “contains only natural ingredients without any synthetic components.”“We have not generated revenue from any TCM formulae candidates or applied for any regulatory approvals, nor have distribution capabilities or experience or any granted patents or pending patent applications and may never be profitable,” the company said in an October filing.The company also made its foray into treatments for Covid-19, conducting trials in 2022 for an “holistic approach” with its experimental therapy. Regencell said data from a 2022 trial showed the treatment was effective in reducing and eliminating Covid symptoms within six days, although the results were yet to be peer-reviewed.The firm has funded its operations so far, primarily from shareholder loans and proceeds from its initial public offering, the SEC filing showed. It said its gross proceeds from its IPO were $21.85 million, with additional net proceeds of $2.85 million from the issue of the over allotment shares and exercise of 325,000 shares.One potential reason for the outsized swings in Regencell shares: its tiny float. Of its nearly 500 million outstanding shares, only about 30 million are available to be traded. That equates to roughly 6% of shares, compared to Apple Inc. — which has about 98% available — and Tesla Inc.’s 87%. Insiders own the remaining Regencell shares, with Chief Executive Officer Yat-Gai Au’s ownership accounting for 86%, according to holding data compiled by Bloomberg.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RGC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":445647538676144,"gmtCreate":1749832097515,"gmtModify":1749835273712,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla bubble?","listText":"Tesla bubble?","text":"Tesla bubble?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/445647538676144","repostId":"2543687908","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2543687908","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1749824845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2543687908?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-13 22:27","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"This Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2543687908","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.'Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tes","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.</p><blockquote><p>&#39;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#39;</p></blockquote><p>Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I&#39;ll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.</p><p>The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.</p><p>As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.</p><p>Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.</p><p>A great deal has changed since.</p><p>First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were &#34;delayed&#34;- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla&#39;s robotaxi program earlier this week).</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk&#39;s dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla&#39;s core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, &#34;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#34;</p><blockquote><p>The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.</p></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla&#39;s pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).</p><p>Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.</p><p>Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.</p><p>In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla&#39;s average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e6cf6816c67adebb86040503a517621\" title=\"Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.</span></p><p>And what this meant for the P&amp;L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed89cec580f64af50ee7903ed130f515\" title=\"Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"201\"/><span>Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.</span></p><p>And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?</p><p>It&#39;s up almost 30% in the past three months.</p><p>Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump&#39;s election and Musk&#39;s initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.</p><p>There&#39;s nothing fundamental justifying the stock&#39;s recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?</p><p>Chalk it up to &#34;thesis drift.&#34; Here&#39;s what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don&#39;t even care about Tesla&#39;s auto business.</p><p>Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla&#39;s AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla&#39;s robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn&#39;t have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.</p><p>And given Musk&#39;s ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this &#34;pumping&#34;) you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don&#39;t have proper &#34;price discovery&#34; for Tesla shares.</p><p>And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.</p><p>Let those figures sink in.</p><p>Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.</p><p>If we compare Tesla&#39;s sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c0fc4d4117e97ebd8cfdece9545d841\" title=\"Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\"/><span>Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f51e8db8e88153742583aca54e4a87a4\" title=\"Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"512\"/><span>Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.</span></p><blockquote><p>Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></blockquote><p>So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla&#39;s skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.</p><p>To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other &#34;Musk Options.&#34; In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.</p><p>If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.</p><p>And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla&#39;s auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.</p><p>And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla&#39;s FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla&#39;s automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the &#34;Musk option&#34; would be valued at $900 billion.</p><p>In other words, Tesla&#39;s share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla&#39;s non-automotive manufacturing businesses.</p><p>Now, clearly, Waymo, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye Global Inc.</a> and others have a much different opinion about Tesla&#39;s prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one &#34;winner&#34;? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?</p><p>It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don&#39;t like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.</p><p>And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn&#39;t months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It&#39;ll take decades.</p><p>That means we&#39;ll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That&#39;s just math.</p><p>Finally, if Tesla&#39;s FSD does &#34;win,&#34; and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?</p><p>At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn&#39;t want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla&#39;s automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.</p><p>So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?</p><p>How much will that cost? We&#39;re guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-13 22:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.</p><blockquote><p>&#39;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#39;</p></blockquote><p>Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I&#39;ll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.</p><p>The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.</p><p>As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.</p><p>Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.</p><p>A great deal has changed since.</p><p>First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were &#34;delayed&#34;- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla&#39;s robotaxi program earlier this week).</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk&#39;s dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla&#39;s core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, &#34;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#34;</p><blockquote><p>The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.</p></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla&#39;s pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).</p><p>Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.</p><p>Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.</p><p>In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla&#39;s average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e6cf6816c67adebb86040503a517621\" title=\"Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.</span></p><p>And what this meant for the P&amp;L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed89cec580f64af50ee7903ed130f515\" title=\"Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"201\"/><span>Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.</span></p><p>And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?</p><p>It&#39;s up almost 30% in the past three months.</p><p>Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump&#39;s election and Musk&#39;s initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.</p><p>There&#39;s nothing fundamental justifying the stock&#39;s recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?</p><p>Chalk it up to &#34;thesis drift.&#34; Here&#39;s what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don&#39;t even care about Tesla&#39;s auto business.</p><p>Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla&#39;s AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla&#39;s robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn&#39;t have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.</p><p>And given Musk&#39;s ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this &#34;pumping&#34;) you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don&#39;t have proper &#34;price discovery&#34; for Tesla shares.</p><p>And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.</p><p>Let those figures sink in.</p><p>Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.</p><p>If we compare Tesla&#39;s sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c0fc4d4117e97ebd8cfdece9545d841\" title=\"Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\"/><span>Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f51e8db8e88153742583aca54e4a87a4\" title=\"Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"512\"/><span>Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.</span></p><blockquote><p>Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></blockquote><p>So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla&#39;s skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.</p><p>To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other &#34;Musk Options.&#34; In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.</p><p>If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.</p><p>And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla&#39;s auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.</p><p>And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla&#39;s FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla&#39;s automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the &#34;Musk option&#34; would be valued at $900 billion.</p><p>In other words, Tesla&#39;s share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla&#39;s non-automotive manufacturing businesses.</p><p>Now, clearly, Waymo, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye Global Inc.</a> and others have a much different opinion about Tesla&#39;s prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one &#34;winner&#34;? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?</p><p>It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don&#39;t like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.</p><p>And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn&#39;t months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It&#39;ll take decades.</p><p>That means we&#39;ll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That&#39;s just math.</p><p>Finally, if Tesla&#39;s FSD does &#34;win,&#34; and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?</p><p>At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn&#39;t want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla&#39;s automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.</p><p>So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?</p><p>How much will that cost? We&#39;re guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1221951046.USD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (USDHDG) INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1699723380.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"AP\" (USD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2543687908","content_text":"Tesla Motors shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.'Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.'Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I'll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.'s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.A great deal has changed since.First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were \"delayed\"- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla's robotaxi program earlier this week).Meanwhile, Musk's dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla's core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, \"Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.\"The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla's pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla's average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.And what this meant for the P&L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?It's up almost 30% in the past three months.Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump's election and Musk's initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.There's nothing fundamental justifying the stock's recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?Chalk it up to \"thesis drift.\" Here's what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the Apple of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don't even care about Tesla's auto business.Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla's AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla's robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn't have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.And given Musk's ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this \"pumping\") you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don't have proper \"price discovery\" for Tesla shares.And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.Let those figures sink in.Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.If we compare Tesla's sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla's significantly larger market cap.Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he's ignoring the possibility that Tesla's share price already reflects the company's best possible outcome.So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla's skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other \"Musk Options.\" In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla's auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla's FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla's automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the \"Musk option\" would be valued at $900 billion.In other words, Tesla's share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla's non-automotive manufacturing businesses.Now, clearly, Waymo, Baidu, Mobileye Global Inc. and others have a much different opinion about Tesla's prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one \"winner\"? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don't like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn't months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It'll take decades.That means we'll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That's just math.Finally, if Tesla's FSD does \"win,\" and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn't want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla's automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?How much will that cost? We're guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he's ignoring the possibility that Tesla's share price already reflects the company's best possible outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435692390121896,"gmtCreate":1747405942141,"gmtModify":1747406711104,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up&nbsp;in China?&nbsp;","listText":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up&nbsp;in China?&nbsp;","text":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up in China?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/435692390121896","repostId":"2535758399","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":445647538676144,"gmtCreate":1749832097515,"gmtModify":1749835273712,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla bubble?","listText":"Tesla bubble?","text":"Tesla bubble?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/445647538676144","repostId":"2543687908","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2543687908","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1749824845,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2543687908?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-06-13 22:27","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"This Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2543687908","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.'Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tes","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.</p><blockquote><p>&#39;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#39;</p></blockquote><p>Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I&#39;ll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.</p><p>The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.</p><p>As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.</p><p>Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.</p><p>A great deal has changed since.</p><p>First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were &#34;delayed&#34;- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla&#39;s robotaxi program earlier this week).</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk&#39;s dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla&#39;s core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, &#34;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#34;</p><blockquote><p>The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.</p></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla&#39;s pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).</p><p>Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.</p><p>Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.</p><p>In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla&#39;s average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e6cf6816c67adebb86040503a517621\" title=\"Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.</span></p><p>And what this meant for the P&amp;L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed89cec580f64af50ee7903ed130f515\" title=\"Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"201\"/><span>Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.</span></p><p>And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?</p><p>It&#39;s up almost 30% in the past three months.</p><p>Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump&#39;s election and Musk&#39;s initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.</p><p>There&#39;s nothing fundamental justifying the stock&#39;s recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?</p><p>Chalk it up to &#34;thesis drift.&#34; Here&#39;s what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don&#39;t even care about Tesla&#39;s auto business.</p><p>Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla&#39;s AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla&#39;s robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn&#39;t have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.</p><p>And given Musk&#39;s ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this &#34;pumping&#34;) you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don&#39;t have proper &#34;price discovery&#34; for Tesla shares.</p><p>And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.</p><p>Let those figures sink in.</p><p>Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.</p><p>If we compare Tesla&#39;s sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c0fc4d4117e97ebd8cfdece9545d841\" title=\"Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\"/><span>Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f51e8db8e88153742583aca54e4a87a4\" title=\"Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"512\"/><span>Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.</span></p><blockquote><p>Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></blockquote><p>So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla&#39;s skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.</p><p>To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other &#34;Musk Options.&#34; In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.</p><p>If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.</p><p>And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla&#39;s auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.</p><p>And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla&#39;s FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla&#39;s automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the &#34;Musk option&#34; would be valued at $900 billion.</p><p>In other words, Tesla&#39;s share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla&#39;s non-automotive manufacturing businesses.</p><p>Now, clearly, Waymo, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye Global Inc.</a> and others have a much different opinion about Tesla&#39;s prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one &#34;winner&#34;? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?</p><p>It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don&#39;t like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.</p><p>And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn&#39;t months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It&#39;ll take decades.</p><p>That means we&#39;ll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That&#39;s just math.</p><p>Finally, if Tesla&#39;s FSD does &#34;win,&#34; and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?</p><p>At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn&#39;t want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla&#39;s automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.</p><p>So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?</p><p>How much will that cost? We&#39;re guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Wall Street Pro Did a Deep Dive into Tesla - and Calls the Stock \"Tremendously Overpriced.\" The Charts Show Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-13 22:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.</p><blockquote><p>&#39;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#39;</p></blockquote><p>Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I&#39;ll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.</p><p>The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.</p><p>As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.</p><p>Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.</p><p>A great deal has changed since.</p><p>First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were &#34;delayed&#34;- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla&#39;s robotaxi program earlier this week).</p><p>Meanwhile, Musk&#39;s dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla&#39;s core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, &#34;Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.&#34;</p><blockquote><p>The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.</p></blockquote><p>Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla&#39;s pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).</p><p>Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.</p><p>Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.</p><p>In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla&#39;s average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4e6cf6816c67adebb86040503a517621\" title=\"Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"401\"/><span>Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.</span></p><p>And what this meant for the P&amp;L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ed89cec580f64af50ee7903ed130f515\" title=\"Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"201\"/><span>Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.</span></p><p>And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?</p><p>It&#39;s up almost 30% in the past three months.</p><p>Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump&#39;s election and Musk&#39;s initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.</p><p>There&#39;s nothing fundamental justifying the stock&#39;s recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?</p><p>Chalk it up to &#34;thesis drift.&#34; Here&#39;s what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don&#39;t even care about Tesla&#39;s auto business.</p><p>Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla&#39;s AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla&#39;s robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn&#39;t have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.</p><p>And given Musk&#39;s ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this &#34;pumping&#34;) you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don&#39;t have proper &#34;price discovery&#34; for Tesla shares.</p><p>And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.</p><p>Let those figures sink in.</p><p>Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.</p><p>If we compare Tesla&#39;s sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c0fc4d4117e97ebd8cfdece9545d841\" title=\"Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"533\"/><span>Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f51e8db8e88153742583aca54e4a87a4\" title=\"Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"512\"/><span>Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla&#39;s significantly larger market cap.</span></p><blockquote><p>Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></blockquote><p>So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla&#39;s skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.</p><p>To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other &#34;Musk Options.&#34; In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.</p><p>If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.</p><p>And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla&#39;s auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.</p><p>And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla&#39;s FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla&#39;s automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the &#34;Musk option&#34; would be valued at $900 billion.</p><p>In other words, Tesla&#39;s share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla&#39;s non-automotive manufacturing businesses.</p><p>Now, clearly, Waymo, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye Global Inc.</a> and others have a much different opinion about Tesla&#39;s prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one &#34;winner&#34;? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?</p><p>It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don&#39;t like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.</p><p>And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn&#39;t months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It&#39;ll take decades.</p><p>That means we&#39;ll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That&#39;s just math.</p><p>Finally, if Tesla&#39;s FSD does &#34;win,&#34; and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?</p><p>At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn&#39;t want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla&#39;s automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.</p><p>So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?</p><p>How much will that cost? We&#39;re guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he&#39;s ignoring the possibility that Tesla&#39;s share price already reflects the company&#39;s best possible outcome.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","LU1880398554.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1221951046.USD":"NORDEA 1 STABLE RETURN \"HM\" (USDHDG) INC","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1699723380.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"AP\" (USD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0708994859.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2543687908","content_text":"Tesla Motors shares are priced on hopes for robotaxis, full self-driving cars and robots.'Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.'Tesla is anything but a boring stock, I'll give it that. It is also tremendously overpriced.The Elon Musk vs. Donald Trump battle sure has captured the news cycle. It is captivating from both sides of the political aisle, and the reaction of Tesla Inc.'s stock to these headlines has been nothing short of unstable, explosive and precarious.As a result, there is a big picture about Tesla that many are missing.Three years ago, fans of Tesla were certainly much more excited about their automotive manufacturing business than they are today. Back then, quick EV adoption appeared inevitable, Tesla had the technological lead and the overwhelming market share lead in EVs.A great deal has changed since.First, overall demand for pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) turned out not to be as high as investors expected. Tesla consequently was forced to cut prices, which pressured margins. Moreover, expected new model launches at Telsa never materialized (or were \"delayed\"- much like the anticipated debut of Tesla's robotaxi program earlier this week).Meanwhile, Musk's dalliance and subsequent reversal of fortunes with Trump and MAGA simultaneously confused Tesla's core customer base. In the views of one of our close friends, \"Musk attempted to appeal to a F-150 and Ram crowd that hates his cars, while completely losing the Tesla crowd that loved his cars.\"The amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering.Meanwhile, the amount of U.S. government subsidies that Tesla directly and indirectly receives is staggering. Consequently, Musk may be accelerating pressure on the large subsidies enjoyed by Tesla buyers (federal tax credits, which indirectly go straight into Tesla's pockets) as well as the subsidies enjoyed by the company directly (in the form of regulatory credits).Finally, and at the worst possible time for Tesla, traditional competitors have started ramping up with marketable EVs, and new competitors (especially in China) started developing products too, with tremendous success.Consequently, the expectations that people had three years ago did not materialize. Not even close. Even the flagship Models 3 and Y have been disappointing, and the Cybertruck has been a disaster.In June 2022, the investment community expected Tesla to mint more than 3.6 million units of sales in 2025. Today, those expectations are down 45%. Moreover, price cuts have driven Tesla's average selling prices down by roughly 25%. Taken together, expectations for total Tesla 2025 automotive revenues are down almost 60% in this short period.Table showing projected Tesla unit sales and revenue changes from June 2022 to June 2025.And what this meant for the P&L and financials for Tesla have not been good at all. In the table below, you can see how bad it has been. Total revenue expectations for 2025 are down 40%, gross margins are down 34%, operating margins are down 56% and earnings expectations are down 68%.Tesla financial data: June 22 vs June 25.  Shows revenue, margins, and EPS.And how has Tesla stock reacted to the plunging expectations for revenues and earnings?It's up almost 30% in the past three months.Yes, during this period of severe fundamental deterioration, the stock has risen to $320 a share from $240. And in the euphoria following Trump's election and Musk's initial alliance with him, the stock actually approached $490 a share in mid-December.There's nothing fundamental justifying the stock's recent gain. In fact the (terrible) first-quarter numbers suggested the opposite reaction was warranted. How did this happen?Chalk it up to \"thesis drift.\" Here's what that means: Investors, specifically Tesla bulls, three years ago believed in an EV future where Tesla would become the Apple of automakers, and everyone else would become Nokia, Blackberry or Motorola. Now they don't even care about Tesla's auto business.Today, the story, evidently, is all about Tesla's AI-enhanced full self-driving (FSD) vehicles and robotaxis, and about Optimus, the humanoid bipedal robot that Tesla is designing. Musk said this week that Tesla's robotaxi service in Austin will roll out later this month. And this has Tesla fans extremely excited. Never mind that Waymo is already in four cities, including Austin, and is booking 250,000 autonomous rides per week in Austin, Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles. In the mind of a Tesla investor, Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, doesn't have the same caliber of code writers that Tesla has. Funny that.And given Musk's ability to use social media to drive Tesla stock significantly higher without traditional fundamental justification (some call this \"pumping\") you have buyside (institutional) investors reluctant to step in and attempt to make markets efficient by shorting the stock. As a result, there is a strong argument that we don't have proper \"price discovery\" for Tesla shares.And at $320 per share, this is a company experiencing negative sales and earnings growth, trading at an EV/sales of nearly 12x, a 2025 P/E of over 170x, and sporting a $1 trillion market cap.Let those figures sink in.Importantly, our view is that the value of the automotive business within Tesla not only represents a small portion of its current market cap - but is worth much less than even we expected a few years ago.If we compare Tesla's sales and market cap to that of other auto manufacturers, a picture can be worth a thousand words.Bar chart showing automaker sales in billions for fiscal year 2025.Bar chart comparing the market caps of various automakers, showing Tesla's significantly larger market cap.Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he's ignoring the possibility that Tesla's share price already reflects the company's best possible outcome.So, what investors must determine going forward is less about the future for Tesla automobile manufacturing and more about the prospects for FSD, robotaxis, energy and other projects in Tesla's skunkworks - because that is clearly what is driving the share price and market cap.To start this, we can make a simple determination of what the automobile business is worth. And, by implication, the balance must be these other \"Musk Options.\" In auto-land, the average P/E for Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen is 6.5x. Include Honda, Toyota and SAIC, it is 7.7x.If we assume the Tesla automotive business - despite all the deteriorating metrics mentioned above - is a better business and deserving of a higher multiple than each of them (which is debatable), perhaps we can say it should be worth a P/E of 10x. Maybe we could even say 15x.And at a 2025 P/E of 15x, Tesla's auto business would have market cap of $100 billion. That is still a heck of a lot, more than any other automaker except Toyota (which generates 5x more sales and Ebitda), and about the same as BYD.And if we assume we are close, that means that the market already values Tesla's FSD, robotaxis, Optimus and the energy business at roughly $1 trillion. And for the Tesla fans laughing at our valuation of the automotive business, even if Tesla's automotive business were worth twice that amount (a P/E of 30x), the \"Musk option\" would be valued at $900 billion.In other words, Tesla's share price already assumes - and prices in - a tremendous amount of success for Tesla's non-automotive manufacturing businesses.Now, clearly, Waymo, Baidu, Mobileye Global Inc. and others have a much different opinion about Tesla's prospects in autonomous driving and robotaxi profitability. Many industry observers do too. But suppose robotaxis become a thing: who will win? And will there be only one \"winner\"? Perhaps most importantly, how much is there to win? How much demand will there really be for autonomous vehicles?It is unfathomable that most people will actually not want to drive their cars. It is incomprehensible that people, outside of big-city commuters who don't like trains, will want to surrender the experience, enjoyment and responsibility of driving to a machine. In our view, demand may not be as high as some think.And even if people ultimately do want to have an autonomous vehicle, or are one day forced to do so by government regulators, this isn't months or even years from now for the majority of drivers. It'll take decades.That means we'll need to discount those future prospects back to the present. And if you are sure that something will be worth $100 in 20 years, and you want to make 15% a year while you wait, then you better not pay much more than about $6 to buy it today. That's just math.Finally, if Tesla's FSD does \"win,\" and if its software is installed on more than just Ubers/Lyfts/taxis and ride-sharing apps, then how much will consumers pay for the software that makes their cars autonomous?At the outset, the early adopters will pay whatever price they have to, but we shouldn't want to make the mistake of extrapolating that (as investors in Tesla's automotive prospects did). Instead, objectively estimate what things might look like as the technology spreads.So, the question is this: Will we all want to subscribe to an autonomous-driving software vendor like we do with Apple or Android and our phones? Or will competition eventually force autonomous to be standard for all cars, like cruise control?How much will that cost? We're guessing that the price is somewhere between free and expensive. We will find out one day, of course, but in the meantime it appears that Tesla has Mr. Market distracted right now, and he's ignoring the possibility that Tesla's share price already reflects the company's best possible outcome.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":447032120291368,"gmtCreate":1750147434580,"gmtModify":1750148415486,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Valued using EV/ bubble froth?&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Valued using EV/ bubble froth?&nbsp;","text":"Valued using EV/ bubble froth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/447032120291368","repostId":"1168861935","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":435692390121896,"gmtCreate":1747405942141,"gmtModify":1747406711104,"author":{"id":"4184422615922462","authorId":"4184422615922462","name":"fedagent28","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2874fd661368581cc350307a898a5acc","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184422615922462","authorIdStr":"4184422615922462"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up&nbsp;in China?&nbsp;","listText":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up&nbsp;in China?&nbsp;","text":"Will the US government allow Nvidia to set up in China?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/435692390121896","repostId":"2535758399","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2535758399","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1032215980","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48"},"pubTimestamp":1747399342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2535758399?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-05-16 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Seeks Shanghai R&D Site After US Chip Curbs, Say Sources","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2535758399","media":"Reuters","summary":"CEO Jensen Huang underlined China's importance during April visitShanghai could offer incentives for Nvidia projectShanghai may provide large area of land for R&D centre$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is seeking a sit","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CEO Jensen Huang underlined China&#39;s importance during April visit</p></li><li><p>Shanghai could offer incentives for Nvidia project</p></li><li><p>Shanghai may provide large area of land for R&amp;D centre</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a> is seeking a site in Shanghai for a research and development centre, three sources close to the matter said, reflecting the strategic significance of the Chinese market where U.S. curbs on advanced chip exports have hit sales.</p><p>The U.S. chipmaker began the search in early 2025 and is primarily evaluating locations in Shanghai&#39;s Minhang and Xuhui districts, one of the sources said.</p><p>The project gained momentum after a surprise visit to China by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang last month, said two of the sources.</p><p>Huang, who has consistently said China is critical to Nvidia&#39;s growth, made his visit immediately after the U.S. placed new restrictions on China-bound shipments of its H20 chips, the only AI chip the company can sell legally in China.</p><p>Huang met senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Shanghai&#39;s mayor Gong Zheng.</p><p>Reuters reported earlier this month that Nvidia plans to release a downgraded version of the H20 chip for China in the next two months, as it seeks to prop up sales in the country, where it has been lost market share to domestic rivals such as Huawei.</p><p>China generated $17 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fiscal year ending January 26, accounting for 13% of the company&#39;s total sales.</p><p>The local government of Shanghai, which hosts China&#39;s largest foreign business community, including firms such as  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>, has expressed willingness to offer incentives for the Nvidia project, including tax reductions, said two of the sources.</p><p>The local authorities are also considering offering a substantial amount of land to Nvidia for its China R&amp;D centre, one source added.</p><p>Nvidia declined to comment, while the Shanghai city government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The sources declined to be named, as the plan is not public.</p><p>Following his visit to China, Huang told CNBC that the country&#39;s AI market could reach approximately $50 billion within the next two-to-three years.</p><p>He said that being excluded from this rapidly expanding sector would represent a &#34;tremendous loss&#34; for Nvidia, especially as competition with Huawei intensifies.</p><p>During an earnings call in February, before H20 chip sales to China were restricted, Nvidia executives said the company&#39;s sales to China were about half the level before U.S. export controls.</p><p>Since 2022, the U.S. government has imposed restrictions on the export of Nvidia&#39;s most advanced chips to China, citing concerns over potential military applications.</p><p>The Financial Times first reported on Friday about Nvidia&#39;s plan to build a R&amp;D centre in China.</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Seeks Shanghai R&D Site After US Chip Curbs, Say Sources</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Seeks Shanghai R&D Site After US Chip Curbs, Say Sources\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1032215980\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4567337cbdf294b657b1fa87c5488b48);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-16 20:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CEO Jensen Huang underlined China&#39;s importance during April visit</p></li><li><p>Shanghai could offer incentives for Nvidia project</p></li><li><p>Shanghai may provide large area of land for R&amp;D centre</p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a> is seeking a site in Shanghai for a research and development centre, three sources close to the matter said, reflecting the strategic significance of the Chinese market where U.S. curbs on advanced chip exports have hit sales.</p><p>The U.S. chipmaker began the search in early 2025 and is primarily evaluating locations in Shanghai&#39;s Minhang and Xuhui districts, one of the sources said.</p><p>The project gained momentum after a surprise visit to China by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang last month, said two of the sources.</p><p>Huang, who has consistently said China is critical to Nvidia&#39;s growth, made his visit immediately after the U.S. placed new restrictions on China-bound shipments of its H20 chips, the only AI chip the company can sell legally in China.</p><p>Huang met senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Shanghai&#39;s mayor Gong Zheng.</p><p>Reuters reported earlier this month that Nvidia plans to release a downgraded version of the H20 chip for China in the next two months, as it seeks to prop up sales in the country, where it has been lost market share to domestic rivals such as Huawei.</p><p>China generated $17 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fiscal year ending January 26, accounting for 13% of the company&#39;s total sales.</p><p>The local government of Shanghai, which hosts China&#39;s largest foreign business community, including firms such as  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>, has expressed willingness to offer incentives for the Nvidia project, including tax reductions, said two of the sources.</p><p>The local authorities are also considering offering a substantial amount of land to Nvidia for its China R&amp;D centre, one source added.</p><p>Nvidia declined to comment, while the Shanghai city government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The sources declined to be named, as the plan is not public.</p><p>Following his visit to China, Huang told CNBC that the country&#39;s AI market could reach approximately $50 billion within the next two-to-three years.</p><p>He said that being excluded from this rapidly expanding sector would represent a &#34;tremendous loss&#34; for Nvidia, especially as competition with Huawei intensifies.</p><p>During an earnings call in February, before H20 chip sales to China were restricted, Nvidia executives said the company&#39;s sales to China were about half the level before U.S. export controls.</p><p>Since 2022, the U.S. government has imposed restrictions on the export of Nvidia&#39;s most advanced chips to China, citing concerns over potential military applications.</p><p>The Financial Times first reported on Friday about Nvidia&#39;s plan to build a R&amp;D centre in China.</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1721428933.USD":"法巴全球经典环境基金RH MD Dis","LU2413666426.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2461242641.AUD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1935042215.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC A","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2244417387.USD":"FIDELITY SUSTAINABLE US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://api.refinitiv.com/data/news/v1/stories/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20250516:nL8N3RO0K5:1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2535758399","content_text":"CEO Jensen Huang underlined China's importance during April visitShanghai could offer incentives for Nvidia projectShanghai may provide large area of land for R&D centreNVIDIA is seeking a site in Shanghai for a research and development centre, three sources close to the matter said, reflecting the strategic significance of the Chinese market where U.S. curbs on advanced chip exports have hit sales.The U.S. chipmaker began the search in early 2025 and is primarily evaluating locations in Shanghai's Minhang and Xuhui districts, one of the sources said.The project gained momentum after a surprise visit to China by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang last month, said two of the sources.Huang, who has consistently said China is critical to Nvidia's growth, made his visit immediately after the U.S. placed new restrictions on China-bound shipments of its H20 chips, the only AI chip the company can sell legally in China.Huang met senior Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Shanghai's mayor Gong Zheng.Reuters reported earlier this month that Nvidia plans to release a downgraded version of the H20 chip for China in the next two months, as it seeks to prop up sales in the country, where it has been lost market share to domestic rivals such as Huawei.China generated $17 billion in revenue for Nvidia in the fiscal year ending January 26, accounting for 13% of the company's total sales.The local government of Shanghai, which hosts China's largest foreign business community, including firms such as  Tesla Motors, has expressed willingness to offer incentives for the Nvidia project, including tax reductions, said two of the sources.The local authorities are also considering offering a substantial amount of land to Nvidia for its China R&D centre, one source added.Nvidia declined to comment, while the Shanghai city government did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The sources declined to be named, as the plan is not public.Following his visit to China, Huang told CNBC that the country's AI market could reach approximately $50 billion within the next two-to-three years.He said that being excluded from this rapidly expanding sector would represent a \"tremendous loss\" for Nvidia, especially as competition with Huawei intensifies.During an earnings call in February, before H20 chip sales to China were restricted, Nvidia executives said the company's sales to China were about half the level before U.S. export controls.Since 2022, the U.S. government has imposed restrictions on the export of Nvidia's most advanced chips to China, citing concerns over potential military applications.The Financial Times first reported on Friday about Nvidia's plan to build a R&D centre in China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"NVDA":0.9,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}