Asymmetry of risk: If any of the AI story breaks – capital spending slows down, model performance bottlenecks, regulatory tightening – the higher the concentration, the sharper the pullback. In a market where the yield of ten-year treasury bond is already higher than the stock earnings yield, why does it still refuse to call back despite soaring nearly 70% in oil prices this year, and the 10-year bond interest rate still remains near 5.24%?

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Alex Gerko Using 25,000 mostly Nvidia AI chips and a supercomputer in Iceland, XTX competes ferociously in the business of market making — and reaps big rewards. the firm expanded into equities, commodities, and index derivatives, establishing itself as one of the largest electronic market-makers across asset classes. Its daily trading volumes soon reached hundreds of billions of dollars, spanning more than 35 countries. XTX’s core edge lay in forecasting and execution. Its models analyzed tens of thousands of instruments — spot currencies, futures, equities, ETFs, and options — updating probabilistic forecasts multiple times per second. The firm’s infrastructure evolved into one of the world’s most powerful private computing systems, comprising tens of thousands of GPUs and hundreds of pe

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SpaceX announced plans to raise $40 billion in debt after last night's market closed, just to buy NVIDIA chips.

The French 10-year OAT yield rate climbed to 4.90%-4.92%, the highest since 2002. The interest rate spread between France and Germany over the 10-year period widened to between 131 and 149 basis points, just 110 basis points a week ago, and 12-month average was about 75 basis points.

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At the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999, Internet companies accounted for less than 40% of VC funds. Today's AI concentration has more than twice that of that year.

If you remove AI related companies from the S&P 500, the index has fallen 5.4% since the end of August

The largest mortgage lender in the United States, United Wholesale Mortgage, just fell to its lowest closing price in history after trading red for an 8th straight month, its longest losing streak ever! $UWM Holdings Corporation(UWMC)$  

The Chicago Federal Reserve warned that if supply shocks become permanent, the Federal Reserve "must respond to maintain credibility". 

Only 25 percent of the index component stocks are currently higher than their 50 days. A month ago in mid August, this proportion is still 70 %. Seemingly stable at the index level, but actually a few super giants hold up the whole scene.

Only 25% of the S&P 500's components stand above the 50 day moving average.

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$久久王(01927)$  

The Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16th, which is not the end of the interest rate hike cycle, but more like the prelude. The first rate hike by new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is likely just an appetizer.

When the 10-year treasury stabilizes by more than 5 percent, the chain effect immediately shows: the 30-year fixed rate has risen to 7.12 percent (the new two-year high), the cost of financing for enterprises and the interest rate of consumer credit are simultaneously tightening. Financial conditions are real-time tightening

The Muse's popularity is really worth not only because Meta has launched another popular AI product, but because Agent is accelerating from concept verification to popular applications. If Agent can achieve scale and popularization like ChatGPT in the future, the demand for AI infrastructure is also expected to spread further from GPU to CPU, server and high-speed networks, driving the entire hardware industry chain to new incremental opportunities.