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2025-09-07

Naive

Zhang Yidong: A shares and Hong Kong stocks will go out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate

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10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: A shares and Hong Kong stocks will go out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565589615","media":"投资作业本Pro","summary":"解释了港股长牛的内在原因。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the chief strategist of the world, explained the logic that A shares and Hong Kong stocks will usher in a 20-year super bull market from two aspects: \"dividend of the times\" and \"guidance by the visible hand of the state\", and further explained the internal reasons for the long bull market of Hong Kong stocks from the four characteristics of Hong Kong market.</p><p><strong>The key points are as follows:</strong></p><p>1. A super long cow of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super long cow for more than 20 years.</p><p>2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</p><p>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called times make heroes.</p><p>3. Don't think about (this bull market in China) mad cows and fast cows, impossible, they must be long cows.</p><p>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</p><p>We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow ends up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p>4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".</p><p>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</p><p>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.</p><p>The long cow in the United States is a tortoise-style slow cow.</p><p>5. (China) This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long cattle that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p>6. This round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Taking advantage of righteousness is to look at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to improve the country in the long run<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.</p><p>8. There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herd effect.</p><p>Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little.</p><p>9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from the beginning of 2021 to 24.</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stocks is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to pan-Chinese capital in China, the circle of friends between China and China, or this pan-Chinese capital-dominated onshore marketization that agrees with China's development concept.</p><p>10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</p><p>11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</p><p>12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural highlights in China, it can be said that they are coming and going one after another.</p><p>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</p><p>13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long cattle continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</p><p><strong>A-share Hong Kong stocks may go out of a 20-year super long bull</strong></p><p>Q: General Manager Yi Dong, first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. Firstly<strong>Let's talk about a super long bull of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may emerge from a super long bull for more than 20 years.</strong></p><p>This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually the way our economy grows. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about the golden development period of China's equity assets.</p><p>From the 1990s until 2023, on the whole, that was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.</p><p>What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion type and relatively extensive economic growth mode.</p><p>Since 1998, the real estate era has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about the golden age of China's financing, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.</p><p>However, around 2020, after China's overall balance sheet expanded, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that started in 2020 quietly came. The momentum of economic growth represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.</p><p>The debt-expansion mode of economic growth is becoming increasingly inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government sector-have all experienced high debt ratios after expanding in the past two or three decades.</p><p>Most critically, the pull effect on GDP is weaker and weaker for every extra cent of debt. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and become a country driven by scientific and technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.</p><p>Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.</p><p>One of China's healthiest balance sheets is that of the central government. At the end of 2024, China's Treasury Bond balance was only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as $36 trillion, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, which is about 100 percentage points higher than ours.</p><p>Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to the data of the Academy of Social Sciences, the narrow local government debt ratio may be as high as about 40%.</p><p>The IMF calculation is probably higher. We have room to expand the government debt ratio, which is not impossible.</p><p><strong>There is no systemic risk in China's economy and it is necessary to change the mode of economic development</strong></p><p>We know that the government can hold the bottom, and there is no hard landing or systemic risk for the Chinese economy.</p><p>But the development question now is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion or change the path?</p><p>If we are going to take the road of debt expansion, we also have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.</p><p>The balance sheet of the Chinese household sector used to be very healthy, and the Chinese had a saving habit. But unfortunately, from 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's household sector is also expanding rapidly.</p><p>In 2008, the debt ratio of the household sector to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. However, by 24 years, the debt ratio of the residential sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. The room for debt expansion in the residential sector is very limited and has a ceiling.</p><p>Because our national character is frugality as a virtue, we are a restrained nation.</p><p>Our residential sector debt ratio is hardly higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector also remains persistently high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local governments<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.</p><p>In the United States, the corporate sector debt ratio is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.</p><p>So don't have illusions, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't follow the American model and release water. This is not the case. There is no systemic risk in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem for China's economy is to shift its development model.</p><p>What is the focus of changing the development model? Like the asset classification table, our focus for the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.</p><p>Because the base is already very high, it is more about covering the bottom. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.</p><p><strong>The role of capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assets</strong></p><p>Now it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet can't just look at assets, but also look at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.</p><p>By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries, and become the most competitive company.</p><p>Therefore, the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the debt expansion period in the past two or three decades.</p><p>In the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body, and it is the core channel of China's monetary expansion and credit creation. Now, in the era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.</p><p>It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.</p><p>The social wealth accumulated by reform and opening up in the past 40 years is now basically accumulated in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.</p><p>It is necessary to invest these wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.</p><p>Why is it a 20-or 30-year-old cow?</p><p>In this way, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A shares will come out of the super long bull. Long bull is a small goal, which may be twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?</p><p>We know of an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-pay attention to the time node of 2020, which is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to convert. We begin to feel the pain of the decline of the old kinetic energy, and the new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.</strong></p><p>But it is different now. With the comprehensive improvement of DeepSeek, sixth-generation machines, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects of science and technology at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military science and technology from the India-Pakistan conflict on May 7th to the military parade on September 3rd and even the global leadership, let's see that new kinetic energy is beginning to mushroom.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new kinetic energy, and the economy has begun to stabilize.</strong></p><p><strong>The period from 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.</strong></p><p>Significant progress has been made in various fields such as economy, science and technology, culture and ecology, especially in order to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30-year process of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.</p><p>Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an economy dominated by agricultural society to a large-scale industrialized and urbanized economy.</p><p>After that, China should move from a large economy to a strong country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.</p><p><strong>All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are only carriers, and times make heroes.</strong></p><p><strong>Now China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important hub role, which affects the whole body.</strong></p><p>It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.</p><p>For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental rate of return of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is behind us, there's no doubt about it.</p><p>Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.</p><p>More conservatively, by the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents were as high as 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security and pensions would definitely exceed 200 trillion yuan by simple calculation.</p><p>How to revitalize these more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is also more than 200 trillion yuan.</p><p>This asset has higher liquidity, so it should be actively distributed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, thus forming the wealth effect of social wealth.</p><p>Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but participate more actively in China's new productivity tide.</p><p><strong>\"Cold King\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, we should look at the problem from the perspective of development</strong></p><p>For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective.</p><p><strong>Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</strong></p><p><strong>The rise is made by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.</strong>From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's North Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis double-click, and their performance and valuation are going up.</p><p><strong>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</strong></p><p><strong>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development.</strong></p><p>The wealth-making effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to make venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, AI and other scientific and technological fields, forming a spark that can fire a prairie fire, and the capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperforms the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Bull,<strong>This super long bull is called times make heroes.</strong></p><p>Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next 20 years or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents and enterprises.</p><p>Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.</p><p><strong>This is the first point I talk about-the dividend of the times.</strong></p><p>Everyone must not think about mad cows, fast cows, impossible, it must be long cows</p><p>Second point,<strong>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</strong></p><p>Using the data, the Central Financial Work Conference was held at the end of October 2023, and it was clearly stated that we should unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.</p><p>The Western financial model is market-oriented, pure and absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.</p><p>Over the years, inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return manufacturing industries. At most, some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields can be returned, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries can't.</p><p>This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, the interest orientation.</p><p>The Chinese-style development model is different. Especially after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, we put more emphasis on the leadership of the Party, the leadership of the Party in everything, and the leadership of Party building.</p><p>Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people's and functional, and is led by a visible hand.</p><p>The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government,<strong>Lessons learned from the 2014-2015 Mad Cow</strong>— — Leveraged cattle end up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p><strong>Therefore, everyone must not think about mad cows and fast cows. Impossible, it must be long cows.</strong></p><p>This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p><strong>I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", and learn from the running mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise-rabbit race.</strong></p><p><strong>American long cows are tortoise-like slow cows,</strong>Because of its marketization and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will short to make money.</p><p>China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and it is necessary to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors as a whole.</p><p>Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.</p><p>So we say now<strong>Emphasizing the Road of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics in the Background of China</strong>In line with other aspects of the Party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>In this case, to understand China's long bull, we can learn from the long bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.</strong>But this long cow is not a tortoise-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":<strong>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</strong></p><p><strong>Due to the lack of market-oriented abundant short-selling mechanism in our capital market, once sentiment comes</strong>Rushing up,<strong>The herd effect is very strong</strong>。 Coupled with the fact that there are high-frequency quantitative subjects now, the influence is getting bigger and bigger, so it goes very fast.</p><p><strong>Going fast is no problem, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"adding noodles when there is more water, and adding water when there is more noodles\". Now, in a virtuous circle, long-term funds have entered the market, and \"saving and moving\" has been in the ascendant (at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy.</strong></p><p>The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter to accelerate. After the acceleration, the rhythm of IPO and refinancing will definitely happen in the future. This is the deduction of rules.</p><p><strong>Because this round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</strong></p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>Before 2020, local governments were more engaged in land finance and iron and public infrastructure, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and all places learned the Hefei model, including Xi' an, Changsha, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.</p><p>Hefei model is equity finance, which empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle by actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation.</p><p>Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green economy</a>Low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.</p><p>If these new productivity assets can't be realized for a long time, that is, the assets without valuation may even be discounted continuously, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.</p><p>On the other hand, if the leading companies exchange stocks for over-the-counter assets and the equity of unlisted companies through mergers and acquisitions (the next step is to boom again in mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations in China's capital market), and fast fish eat slow fish and big fish eat small fish, a virtuous circle will be formed.</p><p><strong>Listed companies gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profit.</strong></p><p>For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.</p><p>But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled many times, quickly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to withdraw but have no channels.</p><p>If the leading company in the same industry acquires over-the-counter assets through stock exchange rights (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), it will quickly form the optimization of competition pattern and survival of the fittest in the industry.</p><p>All of this allows us to see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>Under the leadership of the visible hand of the government, the Group will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.</p><p>Before 2023 and now are two stock markets</p><p>So let's say,<strong>The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</strong></p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Profit from righteousness means looking at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.</p><p>Therefore, now China's capital market has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and scientific and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.</p><p><strong>This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.</strong></p><p><strong>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (market-oriented rich and powerful short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the Western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.</strong></p><p>Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, well, serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.</p><p>This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which restrains excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.</p><p><strong>There is no need to envy, envy or hate the short-term herd effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</strong></p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bulls from the essence.</p><p><strong>This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.</strong></p><p><strong>This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 have been through shock consolidation.</strong></p><p><strong>Beginning in 2024, Hong Kong is also accelerating its integration into the overall development of the motherland with reopen in 2023.</strong></p><p>One of the characteristics of Hong Kong Long Bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the country</p><p>At the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.</p><p>What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.</p><p>What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.</p><p>From the end of 2023, the whole political and economic landscape of Hong Kong can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity — from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.</p><p>A landmark turning signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center\".</p><p>We saw that in 2023, there was a bad trend spreading rumors that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center site\" and no longer an international financial center.</p><p>The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the state empowerment, and clearly put forward to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the state.</p><p>Feature 2 of Hong Kong Long Bull: Wealth Flows into Hong Kong Stocks from Safe-haven Assets</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>This tide is on the rise-household savings fell by 1.1 trillion yuan in July this year, after a net increase of 5 trillion yuan in household savings deposits in the second quarter. The wave of social wealth reallocation from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.</p><p>As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a climbing market, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.</p><p>One indicator that we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small upsurge in the time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.</p><p>What is the ten-year Treasury Bond yield? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu' ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.</p><p>In times like this,<strong>The cost performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not underestimate ourselves.</strong></p><p>We are the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to pay attention to foreign investment</p><p><strong>Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital doesn't come to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</strong></p><p><strong>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</strong></p><p>With the accumulation of 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis or been seized by Western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.</p><p><strong>In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.</strong></p><p><strong>In addition to long-term funds, national team,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we think that \"the mouse pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, the movement of residents' savings, and the reconfiguration of social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets and even insurance dividend assets to equity assets.</strong></p><p><strong>I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is like when everyone went to buy a house in the 00s. At first, I doubted whether it would work, but I was afraid when it rose too much.</strong></p><p>You see, in 2004 and 05, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's house prices were bubbling and about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 05 to 2020, Shanghai's house prices rose from 4,100 yuan/ping to more than 100,000 yuan/ping in the urban area on average.</p><p>So<strong>It is advisable to take a long view of the landscape and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.</strong></p><p>So we're talking,<strong>The second point is that both Hong Kong stocks and A shares have hope, and I think this is inevitable-they will surely benefit from the reconfiguration of Chinese social wealth. The so-called \"planting a sycamore tree, attracting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".</strong></p><p>The Third Feature of Long Bull in Hong Kong Stocks: Ecological Environment Accelerates a Virtuous Circle</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.</p><p>In the past few years, due to the switching of old and new kinetic energy, such as the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of industries such as education and training, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of the whole Hong Kong and listed companies were lifeless. Everyone was pessimistic, and the funds were crowded in the dividend assets of pure safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks and three major operators. However, everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growth assets.</p><p>At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations, which had been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, short selling of Hong Kong stocks accounted for an outrageous 35% in August 2023, and short selling of Hong Kong stocks became one of the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.</p><p>At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, it was felt that China's economy would have a hard landing due to the drag of real estate, that is, the \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has now been falsified; Second, I feel that China's science and technology are backward, and the United States is stuck in our necks on advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, \"the exit theory of private enterprises\", because at that time, the switching of old and new kinetic energy had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.</p><p>Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, feeling that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.</p><p>But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industries</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.</p><p>We should look at this problem in the framework of political economy, not purely Western financial thinking.</p><p>Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.</p><p>Not only that, but the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. of the North Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are mostly private capital and private enterprises rising and developing rapidly.</p><p>The so-called \"theory of China's backwardness in science and technology\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robots, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading in the world.</p><p><strong>The so-called \"hard landing theory of China's economy\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" is also constantly being overturned and falsified.</strong></p><p>Because I just said that the balance sheet of the Chinese central government is very clean, enough to support the bottom without major systemic risks.</p><p>At the same time, China is the largest domestic market in the world-we are already the largest market in the world from the perspective of commodity consumption. The United States is the world's largest market because its consumption of services is much larger than ours.</p><p><strong>But purely in terms of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic market,</strong>So we are different from Japan back then.</p><p><strong>New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize, slowly moving towards high-quality development and improvement.</strong></p><p><strong>I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s.</strong></p><p><strong>What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</strong></p><p>At that time, the domestic demand of the US economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Shop and Costco began to rise. At that time, Peter Lynch, a famous fund manager, just looked for what his wife and children bought.</p><p><strong>Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.</strong></p><p><strong>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</strong></p><p>Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to be in a virtuous circle. In particular, high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption and innovative drug companies have gone public in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.</p><p><strong>Incremental domestic and overseas funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign funds with a correct understanding of China, which began to be deployed in the first half of this year, such as South Korea, Taiwan Province, and Singapore in Southeast Asia in the Asia-Pacific region.</strong></p><p>false<strong>Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</strong></p><p>The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks: offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by pan-Chinese capital</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stock bull is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by Chinese, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agree with China's development concept).</p><p>What is the difference between an offshore market and an onshore market?</p><p>The offshore market is usually a peripheral and non-core layout, so you can see that for a long time, both mainland Chinese investors and foreign investors are like dragons crossing the river-when A shares rise, they will pass when Hong Kong stocks are depressed, and they will come back if they can't make money, without taking Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;</p><p>Foreign capital is also a wave when US stocks rise too much. If Hong Kong stocks rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short them, like poverty alleviation, which is an offshore market.</p><p>Onshore markets are different.</p><p>The onshore market has a long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. You look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market such as the bond market,<strong>Local funds are the needle and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium-and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the more the short selling force falls, the more fierce it will be and the fall will be endless.</strong></p><p>We think<strong>This time, the change of investment logic in Hong Kong stock market is to shift from offshore market to onshore market.</strong></p><p><strong>You can see that investment style has also changed</strong>: It turns out that Deep Value is a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance to make money when they bounce up; Now the onshore market investing style is more diversified.</p><p>In addition to value stocks (which support the upward movement of the hub as a shield, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs will give a growth premium- -High growth gives high valuation.</p><p>This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A shares, and in US stocks, you can see that technology, innovation and even obviously bad rare earth stocks are also market dream rate valuations.</p><p><strong>It's not that mature market valuations are necessarily low</strong>In recent years, US stocks have actually given growth stocks a valuation premium.</p><p><strong>Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles, both offensive and defensive</strong>: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give a premium based on growth.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1716810789658","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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A super long cow of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super long cow for more than 20 years.</p><p>2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</p><p>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called times make heroes.</p><p>3. Don't think about (this bull market in China) mad cows and fast cows, impossible, they must be long cows.</p><p>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</p><p>We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow ends up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p>4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".</p><p>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</p><p>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.</p><p>The long cow in the United States is a tortoise-style slow cow.</p><p>5. (China) This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long cattle that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p>6. This round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Taking advantage of righteousness is to look at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to improve the country in the long run<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.</p><p>8. There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herd effect.</p><p>Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little.</p><p>9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from the beginning of 2021 to 24.</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stocks is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to pan-Chinese capital in China, the circle of friends between China and China, or this pan-Chinese capital-dominated onshore marketization that agrees with China's development concept.</p><p>10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</p><p>11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</p><p>12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural highlights in China, it can be said that they are coming and going one after another.</p><p>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</p><p>13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long cattle continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</p><p><strong>A-share Hong Kong stocks may go out of a 20-year super long bull</strong></p><p>Q: General Manager Yi Dong, first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. Firstly<strong>Let's talk about a super long bull of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may emerge from a super long bull for more than 20 years.</strong></p><p>This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually the way our economy grows. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about the golden development period of China's equity assets.</p><p>From the 1990s until 2023, on the whole, that was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.</p><p>What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion type and relatively extensive economic growth mode.</p><p>Since 1998, the real estate era has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about the golden age of China's financing, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.</p><p>However, around 2020, after China's overall balance sheet expanded, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that started in 2020 quietly came. The momentum of economic growth represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.</p><p>The debt-expansion mode of economic growth is becoming increasingly inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government sector-have all experienced high debt ratios after expanding in the past two or three decades.</p><p>Most critically, the pull effect on GDP is weaker and weaker for every extra cent of debt. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and become a country driven by scientific and technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.</p><p>Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.</p><p>One of China's healthiest balance sheets is that of the central government. At the end of 2024, China's Treasury Bond balance was only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as $36 trillion, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, which is about 100 percentage points higher than ours.</p><p>Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to the data of the Academy of Social Sciences, the narrow local government debt ratio may be as high as about 40%.</p><p>The IMF calculation is probably higher. We have room to expand the government debt ratio, which is not impossible.</p><p><strong>There is no systemic risk in China's economy and it is necessary to change the mode of economic development</strong></p><p>We know that the government can hold the bottom, and there is no hard landing or systemic risk for the Chinese economy.</p><p>But the development question now is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion or change the path?</p><p>If we are going to take the road of debt expansion, we also have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.</p><p>The balance sheet of the Chinese household sector used to be very healthy, and the Chinese had a saving habit. But unfortunately, from 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's household sector is also expanding rapidly.</p><p>In 2008, the debt ratio of the household sector to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. However, by 24 years, the debt ratio of the residential sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. The room for debt expansion in the residential sector is very limited and has a ceiling.</p><p>Because our national character is frugality as a virtue, we are a restrained nation.</p><p>Our residential sector debt ratio is hardly higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector also remains persistently high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local governments<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.</p><p>In the United States, the corporate sector debt ratio is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.</p><p>So don't have illusions, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't follow the American model and release water. This is not the case. There is no systemic risk in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem for China's economy is to shift its development model.</p><p>What is the focus of changing the development model? Like the asset classification table, our focus for the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.</p><p>Because the base is already very high, it is more about covering the bottom. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.</p><p><strong>The role of capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assets</strong></p><p>Now it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet can't just look at assets, but also look at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.</p><p>By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries, and become the most competitive company.</p><p>Therefore, the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the debt expansion period in the past two or three decades.</p><p>In the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body, and it is the core channel of China's monetary expansion and credit creation. Now, in the era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.</p><p>It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.</p><p>The social wealth accumulated by reform and opening up in the past 40 years is now basically accumulated in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.</p><p>It is necessary to invest these wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.</p><p>Why is it a 20-or 30-year-old cow?</p><p>In this way, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A shares will come out of the super long bull. Long bull is a small goal, which may be twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?</p><p>We know of an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-pay attention to the time node of 2020, which is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to convert. We begin to feel the pain of the decline of the old kinetic energy, and the new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.</strong></p><p>But it is different now. With the comprehensive improvement of DeepSeek, sixth-generation machines, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects of science and technology at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military science and technology from the India-Pakistan conflict on May 7th to the military parade on September 3rd and even the global leadership, let's see that new kinetic energy is beginning to mushroom.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new kinetic energy, and the economy has begun to stabilize.</strong></p><p><strong>The period from 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.</strong></p><p>Significant progress has been made in various fields such as economy, science and technology, culture and ecology, especially in order to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30-year process of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.</p><p>Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an economy dominated by agricultural society to a large-scale industrialized and urbanized economy.</p><p>After that, China should move from a large economy to a strong country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.</p><p><strong>All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are only carriers, and times make heroes.</strong></p><p><strong>Now China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important hub role, which affects the whole body.</strong></p><p>It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.</p><p>For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental rate of return of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is behind us, there's no doubt about it.</p><p>Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.</p><p>More conservatively, by the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents were as high as 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security and pensions would definitely exceed 200 trillion yuan by simple calculation.</p><p>How to revitalize these more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is also more than 200 trillion yuan.</p><p>This asset has higher liquidity, so it should be actively distributed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, thus forming the wealth effect of social wealth.</p><p>Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but participate more actively in China's new productivity tide.</p><p><strong>\"Cold King\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, we should look at the problem from the perspective of development</strong></p><p>For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective.</p><p><strong>Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</strong></p><p><strong>The rise is made by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.</strong>From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's North Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis double-click, and their performance and valuation are going up.</p><p><strong>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</strong></p><p><strong>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development.</strong></p><p>The wealth-making effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to make venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, AI and other scientific and technological fields, forming a spark that can fire a prairie fire, and the capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperforms the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Bull,<strong>This super long bull is called times make heroes.</strong></p><p>Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next 20 years or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents and enterprises.</p><p>Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.</p><p><strong>This is the first point I talk about-the dividend of the times.</strong></p><p>Everyone must not think about mad cows, fast cows, impossible, it must be long cows</p><p>Second point,<strong>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</strong></p><p>Using the data, the Central Financial Work Conference was held at the end of October 2023, and it was clearly stated that we should unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.</p><p>The Western financial model is market-oriented, pure and absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.</p><p>Over the years, inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return manufacturing industries. At most, some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields can be returned, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries can't.</p><p>This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, the interest orientation.</p><p>The Chinese-style development model is different. Especially after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, we put more emphasis on the leadership of the Party, the leadership of the Party in everything, and the leadership of Party building.</p><p>Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people's and functional, and is led by a visible hand.</p><p>The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government,<strong>Lessons learned from the 2014-2015 Mad Cow</strong>— — Leveraged cattle end up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p><strong>Therefore, everyone must not think about mad cows and fast cows. Impossible, it must be long cows.</strong></p><p>This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p><strong>I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", and learn from the running mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise-rabbit race.</strong></p><p><strong>American long cows are tortoise-like slow cows,</strong>Because of its marketization and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will short to make money.</p><p>China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and it is necessary to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors as a whole.</p><p>Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.</p><p>So we say now<strong>Emphasizing the Road of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics in the Background of China</strong>In line with other aspects of the Party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>In this case, to understand China's long bull, we can learn from the long bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.</strong>But this long cow is not a tortoise-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":<strong>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</strong></p><p><strong>Due to the lack of market-oriented abundant short-selling mechanism in our capital market, once sentiment comes</strong>Rushing up,<strong>The herd effect is very strong</strong>。 Coupled with the fact that there are high-frequency quantitative subjects now, the influence is getting bigger and bigger, so it goes very fast.</p><p><strong>Going fast is no problem, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"adding noodles when there is more water, and adding water when there is more noodles\". Now, in a virtuous circle, long-term funds have entered the market, and \"saving and moving\" has been in the ascendant (at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy.</strong></p><p>The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter to accelerate. After the acceleration, the rhythm of IPO and refinancing will definitely happen in the future. This is the deduction of rules.</p><p><strong>Because this round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</strong></p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>Before 2020, local governments were more engaged in land finance and iron and public infrastructure, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and all places learned the Hefei model, including Xi' an, Changsha, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.</p><p>Hefei model is equity finance, which empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle by actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation.</p><p>Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green economy</a>Low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.</p><p>If these new productivity assets can't be realized for a long time, that is, the assets without valuation may even be discounted continuously, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.</p><p>On the other hand, if the leading companies exchange stocks for over-the-counter assets and the equity of unlisted companies through mergers and acquisitions (the next step is to boom again in mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations in China's capital market), and fast fish eat slow fish and big fish eat small fish, a virtuous circle will be formed.</p><p><strong>Listed companies gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profit.</strong></p><p>For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.</p><p>But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled many times, quickly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to withdraw but have no channels.</p><p>If the leading company in the same industry acquires over-the-counter assets through stock exchange rights (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), it will quickly form the optimization of competition pattern and survival of the fittest in the industry.</p><p>All of this allows us to see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>Under the leadership of the visible hand of the government, the Group will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.</p><p>Before 2023 and now are two stock markets</p><p>So let's say,<strong>The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</strong></p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Profit from righteousness means looking at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.</p><p>Therefore, now China's capital market has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and scientific and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.</p><p><strong>This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.</strong></p><p><strong>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (market-oriented rich and powerful short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the Western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.</strong></p><p>Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, well, serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.</p><p>This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which restrains excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.</p><p><strong>There is no need to envy, envy or hate the short-term herd effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</strong></p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bulls from the essence.</p><p><strong>This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.</strong></p><p><strong>This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 have been through shock consolidation.</strong></p><p><strong>Beginning in 2024, Hong Kong is also accelerating its integration into the overall development of the motherland with reopen in 2023.</strong></p><p>One of the characteristics of Hong Kong Long Bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the country</p><p>At the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.</p><p>What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.</p><p>What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.</p><p>From the end of 2023, the whole political and economic landscape of Hong Kong can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity — from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.</p><p>A landmark turning signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center\".</p><p>We saw that in 2023, there was a bad trend spreading rumors that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center site\" and no longer an international financial center.</p><p>The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the state empowerment, and clearly put forward to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the state.</p><p>Feature 2 of Hong Kong Long Bull: Wealth Flows into Hong Kong Stocks from Safe-haven Assets</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>This tide is on the rise-household savings fell by 1.1 trillion yuan in July this year, after a net increase of 5 trillion yuan in household savings deposits in the second quarter. The wave of social wealth reallocation from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.</p><p>As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a climbing market, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.</p><p>One indicator that we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small upsurge in the time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.</p><p>What is the ten-year Treasury Bond yield? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu' ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.</p><p>In times like this,<strong>The cost performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not underestimate ourselves.</strong></p><p>We are the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to pay attention to foreign investment</p><p><strong>Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital doesn't come to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</strong></p><p><strong>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</strong></p><p>With the accumulation of 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis or been seized by Western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.</p><p><strong>In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.</strong></p><p><strong>In addition to long-term funds, national team,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we think that \"the mouse pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, the movement of residents' savings, and the reconfiguration of social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets and even insurance dividend assets to equity assets.</strong></p><p><strong>I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is like when everyone went to buy a house in the 00s. At first, I doubted whether it would work, but I was afraid when it rose too much.</strong></p><p>You see, in 2004 and 05, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's house prices were bubbling and about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 05 to 2020, Shanghai's house prices rose from 4,100 yuan/ping to more than 100,000 yuan/ping in the urban area on average.</p><p>So<strong>It is advisable to take a long view of the landscape and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.</strong></p><p>So we're talking,<strong>The second point is that both Hong Kong stocks and A shares have hope, and I think this is inevitable-they will surely benefit from the reconfiguration of Chinese social wealth. The so-called \"planting a sycamore tree, attracting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".</strong></p><p>The Third Feature of Long Bull in Hong Kong Stocks: Ecological Environment Accelerates a Virtuous Circle</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.</p><p>In the past few years, due to the switching of old and new kinetic energy, such as the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of industries such as education and training, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of the whole Hong Kong and listed companies were lifeless. Everyone was pessimistic, and the funds were crowded in the dividend assets of pure safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks and three major operators. However, everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growth assets.</p><p>At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations, which had been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, short selling of Hong Kong stocks accounted for an outrageous 35% in August 2023, and short selling of Hong Kong stocks became one of the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.</p><p>At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, it was felt that China's economy would have a hard landing due to the drag of real estate, that is, the \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has now been falsified; Second, I feel that China's science and technology are backward, and the United States is stuck in our necks on advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, \"the exit theory of private enterprises\", because at that time, the switching of old and new kinetic energy had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.</p><p>Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, feeling that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.</p><p>But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industries</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.</p><p>We should look at this problem in the framework of political economy, not purely Western financial thinking.</p><p>Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.</p><p>Not only that, but the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. of the North Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are mostly private capital and private enterprises rising and developing rapidly.</p><p>The so-called \"theory of China's backwardness in science and technology\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robots, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading in the world.</p><p><strong>The so-called \"hard landing theory of China's economy\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" is also constantly being overturned and falsified.</strong></p><p>Because I just said that the balance sheet of the Chinese central government is very clean, enough to support the bottom without major systemic risks.</p><p>At the same time, China is the largest domestic market in the world-we are already the largest market in the world from the perspective of commodity consumption. The United States is the world's largest market because its consumption of services is much larger than ours.</p><p><strong>But purely in terms of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic market,</strong>So we are different from Japan back then.</p><p><strong>New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize, slowly moving towards high-quality development and improvement.</strong></p><p><strong>I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s.</strong></p><p><strong>What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</strong></p><p>At that time, the domestic demand of the US economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Shop and Costco began to rise. At that time, Peter Lynch, a famous fund manager, just looked for what his wife and children bought.</p><p><strong>Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.</strong></p><p><strong>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</strong></p><p>Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to be in a virtuous circle. In particular, high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption and innovative drug companies have gone public in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.</p><p><strong>Incremental domestic and overseas funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign funds with a correct understanding of China, which began to be deployed in the first half of this year, such as South Korea, Taiwan Province, and Singapore in Southeast Asia in the Asia-Pacific region.</strong></p><p>false<strong>Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</strong></p><p>The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks: offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by pan-Chinese capital</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stock bull is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by Chinese, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agree with China's development concept).</p><p>What is the difference between an offshore market and an onshore market?</p><p>The offshore market is usually a peripheral and non-core layout, so you can see that for a long time, both mainland Chinese investors and foreign investors are like dragons crossing the river-when A shares rise, they will pass when Hong Kong stocks are depressed, and they will come back if they can't make money, without taking Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;</p><p>Foreign capital is also a wave when US stocks rise too much. If Hong Kong stocks rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short them, like poverty alleviation, which is an offshore market.</p><p>Onshore markets are different.</p><p>The onshore market has a long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. You look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market such as the bond market,<strong>Local funds are the needle and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium-and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the more the short selling force falls, the more fierce it will be and the fall will be endless.</strong></p><p>We think<strong>This time, the change of investment logic in Hong Kong stock market is to shift from offshore market to onshore market.</strong></p><p><strong>You can see that investment style has also changed</strong>: It turns out that Deep Value is a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance to make money when they bounce up; Now the onshore market investing style is more diversified.</p><p>In addition to value stocks (which support the upward movement of the hub as a shield, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs will give a growth premium- -High growth gives high valuation.</p><p>This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A shares, and in US stocks, you can see that technology, innovation and even obviously bad rare earth stocks are also market dream rate valuations.</p><p><strong>It's not that mature market valuations are necessarily low</strong>In recent years, US stocks have actually given growth stocks a valuation premium.</p><p><strong>Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles, both offensive and defensive</strong>: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give a premium based on growth.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q\">投资作业本Pro</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2565589615","content_text":"兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东从“时代红利”和“国家有形之手引导”两个方面，阐述了A股与港股将迎来二十年超级牛市的逻辑，并进一步从香港市场的四个特点出发，解释了港股长牛的内在原因。要点如下：1、中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。2、比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用，当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。3、大家千万不要还想（中国这轮牛市）疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。会吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。4、我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”。小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛。5、（中国）这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产，繁荣二十多年的地产长牛：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。6、这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。7、2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。8、短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。9、香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。第三点，港股生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟21年到24年年初是不一样的。第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是港股的底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化转向中国泛中资，中国和中国的朋友圈，或者认同中国发展理念的这种泛中资主导的在岸市场化。10、很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。11、中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。12、中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。13、假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。A股港股可能走出二十年超级长牛问：忆东总，先回顾一下八月港股市场的一个表现。包括你也曾提到说港股将走出超级长牛，请问这一判断的主要依据是什么呢？张忆东：我想从两个维度来跟大家分享吧。首先我们来说一说中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。这是一个重要的宏观叙事，最关键的宏观叙事其实是我们的经济增长方式。中国经济增长方式的转变，带来了中国权益资产的黄金发展期。从90年代一直到2023年，总体来看，那是中国旧动能的扩张期。中国旧动能是什么呢？是一种债务扩张型的、相对粗放的经济增长方式。从1998年开始，房地产大时代开启。房地产的持续扩张带来了中国融资的黄金时代，对应的是城镇化、工业化的快速发展。但到2020年左右，中国整体资产负债表扩张后，开始出现一些发展困惑，也就是2020年开始的新旧动能转换阵痛期悄然来临。以房地产为代表的经济增长动能正在显著放缓。债务扩张型的经济增长方式正在越来越低效。中国的三张资产负债表——居民部门、企业部门和政府部门，经过过去二三十年的扩张，都出现了债务率偏高的状态。最关键的是，每增加一分债务，对GDP的拉动效应越来越弱。这个时候，中国经济要转向高质量发展，要转型为科技创新驱动型国家，就需要关注直接融资，要利用资本市场的赋能。我们简单回顾一下债务率问题。中国最健康的一张资产负债表是中央政府的资产负债表。截至2024年底，中国国债余额只有34.5万亿人民币，占GDP的比例约26%。同期美国联邦政府的债务率高达36万亿美元，占GDP的比例约126.8%，比我们高了约100个百分点。我们的隐忧在地方债务。不考虑隐性债务的情况下，根据社科院数据，狭义的地方政府债务率可能高达40%左右。IMF的计算可能更高。政府债务率我们是有扩张空间的，非不能也，实不为也。中国经济没有系统性风险，需要转变经济发展方式我们知道政府可以hold住底，中国经济没有硬着陆或系统性风险。但现在的发展问题是，我们究竟继续走债务扩张的路，还是换条路径？如果要走债务扩张之路，我们还要看其他两张表——企业部门和居民部门的资产负债表。中国居民部门的资产负债表曾经非常健康，中国人有储蓄习惯。但遗憾的是，从08年特别是2016年后，中国居民部门的资产负债表也在快速扩张。08年居民部门债务占GDP比率不到20%，约17%-18%。但到24年，居民部门债务率已接近60%，而美国也不过70%左右。居民部门债务扩张空间非常有限，有天花板。因为我们的民族性是以节俭为美德，是内敛型的民族。我们的居民部门债务率很难比美国更高。企业部门的债务率也持续居高不下。截至去年24年三季度，中国企业部门债务率高达142%，这还不包括地方城投平台公司，如果加上可能更高。反观美国，企业部门债务率只有74%左右。这些数据让我们知道中国经济发展模式转变势在必行。所以大家不要有幻想。现在有些海外经济学家老出歪招，抱怨中国政府为什么不扩张，为什么不学美国模式大放水。不是这么回事，中国经济没有系统性风险，为什么不好好提升经济增长效率？中国经济的问题是转变发展模式。转变发展模式的侧重点在哪儿？就像资产分类表，过去30年我们的重点是债务驱动GDP增长。但靠铁公基、靠房地产这种旧动能，效率越来越低了。因为基数已经很高，它更多是兜底的作用。保证经济可持续性。高质量发展、有效率的发展一定要换增长方式。未来20年资本市场作用是盘活资产现在很简单，看资产负债表不能只看资产，还要看负债。未来20年甚至更长时间，资本市场的作用就是盘活资产。通过盘活资产、提升效率，为中国的科技创新、新消费以及传统成熟行业的核心资产进行全球扩张、成为最有竞争力的公司而努力。所以未来的资本市场，就像过去二三十年在债务扩张时期房地产的作用一样。在债务扩张时期，房地产是牵一发而动全身的枢纽，是中国货币扩张、信用创造的核心渠道。现在高质量发展时代要盘活资产，资本市场就起到了牵一发而动全身的作用。它通过盘活企业资产负债表、居民资产负债表，实现社会财富的优化配置。过去40年改革开放积累的社会财富，现在基本上堆积在一些低效或避险资产里。需要通过资本市场把这些财富投入到更高效的领域，如硬科技、高科技和新消费等新生产力上面，驱动资本市场和实体经济高质量发展的良性循环。为什么是二三十年长牛？这样理解就能知道，不单是港股，A股也会走出超级长牛。长牛是小目标，可能就是二三十年。为什幺二三十年刚好？我们知道一个重要事件：到本世纪中叶，中国要完成中国式现代化。中国式现代化分两步走：第一步从2020年到2035年——注意2020年这个时间节点，是中国新旧动能开始转换的年份，我们开始感受旧动能退坡的痛，新动能尚未脱颖而出。但现在不一样了，随着今年年初DeepSeek、六代机、创新药、机器人等方面科技全面提升，特别是5月7日印巴冲突后到9月3日阅兵式展现的中国军工科技崛起甚至全球领先，让我们看到新动能开始如雨后春笋般兴起。中国式现代化已经在路上，我们已经走出了新旧动能切换的震动期，经济开始企稳。从2020年到2035年是中国式现代化的第一步，基本实现社会主义现代化。在经济、科技、文化、生态等各领域取得重大进展，特别是要跻身创新型国家前列。要知道，在90年代到2020年的二三十年经济发展过程中，主要是债务扩张驱动模式。而且我们当时是从农业社会为主的经济体走向工业化、城镇化大型经济体的过程。之后中国要从大型经济体走向强国，要能够自主创新，成为创新型国家前列。这一切让我们看到这是时代红利，要拥抱这个红利。因为无论是股市还是楼市，都只是载体，时势造英雄。现在中国经济发展模式刚好让资本市场起到最重要、牵一发而动全身的枢纽作用。它能够盘活社会财富，盘活资产负债表资产端，发挥效率。简单举个例子，居民财富一半左右在房地产上，基本上被套住了。但房地产在一二线城市核心区域的租金回报率已经开始超过无风险收益率，所以没必要惊慌失措抛售。但房地产的黄金时代已经过去，这毫无疑问。所以居民财富如果在房地产上，可以再等等，但如果房子多，可以进一步盘活，从低效、僵持状态通过资本市场发挥效率。更加保守的是，截至今年6月底，中国居民储蓄存款高达162万亿，加上30多万亿银行理财，大量保险、社保、养老金等固收类资产里的社会财富，简单算算肯定超过200多万亿。这200多万亿怎么盘活？居民财富除了房地产（约占社会财富250万亿左右大数），另外一半也是200多万亿大数。这块资产流动性更高，应该积极布局到A股和港股，通过资本市场发挥更高效率、更好资源配置效率，进而形成社会财富的财富效应。让企业家不再躺平，特别是民营企业家不再总考虑全球配置、资金外流，而是更积极投身中国新质生产力大潮。“寒王”被质疑太贵？上涨是时代造就的，要用发展的眼光看问题比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。上涨是时代造就的，而不是用静态的老式EPS、短期PE来算的。应该从社会发展角度看，这次中国的北交所、科创板、主板中的科技型公司，特别是与AI浪潮对应的好公司，正在经历戴维斯双击，业绩和估值都向上走。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。资本市场的造富效应、财富效应吸引眼球，让企业家愿意进行风险投资、做天使投资人，投入半导体、机器人、创新药、低空经济、AI等科技领域，形成星星之火可以燎原，资本市场帮助社会财富优化资源配置。老百姓通过参与资本市场（比如今年买基金基本都跑赢指数），财富改善后，风险偏好提升，边际消费倾向也提升。这就是我看超级长牛的原因，这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。现在中国式现代化迈向本世纪中叶，未来二十多年发展就是高质量发展，通过资本市场优化资源配置，盘活政府、居民、企业资产负债表。用资产端扩张化解债务忧虑，资产扩张了，资产负债率自然就下来了，对负债的恐慌才会彻底有效下降。这是我讲的第一点——时代红利。大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛第二点，这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。我们用数据来看，2023年10月底召开中央金融工作会议，明确提出要坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，本质上不同于西方金融模式。西方金融模式是市场化、纯粹绝对的市场化，说白了就是利益导向。美国这么多年来，低效率的造船、钢铁、纺织服装等都转移到其他国家去了。美国想要制造业回流非常难，最多回流一些高科技领域的先进制造业，但低效率、不赚钱的制造业回不去。这就是美国资本市场的特征，就是利益导向。中国式发展模式不同。特别是2022年二十大后，我们更强调党的领导、党领导一切、党建引领。这个大背景下，中国特色金融发展之路就是政治性、人民性、功能性，就是有形之手在引领。对资本市场要求是协调、统筹高效市场和有为政府的关系，吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。所以大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”，借鉴龟兔赛跑中乌龟和小白兔的运行方式。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛，因为其市场化、唯利是图，有强大丰富的做空机制、立体交易机制，涨快了就有人做空赚钱。中国做空机制相对不健全，整体还要呵护中小投资者利益。中国特色背景下，要因地制宜，不要盲目抄别人，不然就变成“淮南为橘淮北为枳”的笑话。适合国情的发展模式才是真正有效的。所以我们说现在中国大背景强调中国特色金融发展之路，与其他方面党引领中国式现代化一脉相承。这种情况下理解中国这轮长牛，可以借鉴当年房地产繁荣二十多年的长牛。但这个长牛不是乌龟式慢牛，而是“小白兔式长牛”：小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。我们的资本市场由于缺乏市场化的丰富做空机制，一旦情绪来了，一哄而上，羊群效应非常强。再加上现在有高频量化主体，影响力越来越大，所以走得很快。走得快没问题，但会有调控，不外乎“水多了加面，面多了加水”。现在良性循环，长线资金入市，“储蓄搬家”已经方兴未艾（刚开始），现在还比较健康。整体行情从六月份以来有点加速。加速不要紧，加速后未来IPO节奏放开、再融资节奏放开一定会发生，这是规则演绎。因为这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。2020年前地方政府更多是土地财政、搞铁公基，但2020年后合肥模式蔚然成风，各地学合肥模式，包括西安、长沙、珠三角、长三角。合肥模式就是股权财政，通过积极介入资本市场、资本运作，给本地实体经济赋能，形成良性循环。各地纷纷设立政府母基金作为种子基金，吸引绿色经济、低空经济、AI科技、机器人等创新领域。如果这些新生产力资产迟迟不能变现，就是没有估值的资产，甚至可能不断打折，不利于资产负债表改善。反过来说，如果通过并购重组（下一步中国资本市场并购重组重新蓬勃发展），通过快鱼吃慢鱼、大鱼吃小鱼，龙头公司用股票换场外资产、未上市公司股权，就形成良性循环。上市公司获得增量增长动能，净资产提升，估值和盈利双驱动。对地方政府而言，资产原来成本价甚至低于成本价（如果高位买可能被向下重估），资产负债表恶化。但现在被上市公司收购，地方政府掌握的股权、资产一下子翻好多倍，快速改善资产负债表。对企业也是如此，特别是有些民营企业资产负债率高，可能想退出但没有渠道。如果同行业龙头公司通过股票换股权（加上一点现金，现金可能通过再融资），收购场外资产，就快速形成行业内竞争格局优化、优胜劣汰。这些都让我们看到资本市场在新时代、政府有形之手引领下，高效推动中国高质量发展。2023年之前和现在是两个股市所以我们来说，2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。所以现在中国资本市场有伟大的历史使命感，通过自身活跃与实体经济形成正反馈，与科技创新形成正反馈，大家赚钱，国家发展，中国式现代化获得内驱力。这是我讲的第二点——有形之手引领这次中国式长牛。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。这就是中国国情，因为中国资本市场缺乏（市场化的丰富强大的做空机制）。而且我们也不想用西方纯粹市场化模式搞那么多做空机制。我们的“做空机制”就是：既然那么亢奋、估值那么高，好，多一点为社会主义服务、为实体经济服务，进行并购重组、资产注入、再融资和IPO。这是中国特色的做空机制，抑制行情过度亢奋、过度投机，让行情持续为经济发展服务。短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。其实是没有从本质理解这轮长牛。这是讲的大趋势：一是时代红利，第二是有形之手在主导和引领。这个逻辑同时适用于A股和港股，是个大逻辑。因为2019年、2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年一直经过震荡整理。从2024年开始，香港也在随着2023年reopen（疫情阴影解除），加速融入祖国发展大局。香港长牛特色之一：拥抱祖国、国家赋能第二个层面我们再分享一下香港本身的逻辑。刚才讲的是适合A股和港股两者共同的超长牛市逻辑。我们再想一想香港本身的特点和特色，主要分以下几个方面。香港这轮行情的特色在哪儿呢？就是拥抱祖国、拥抱祖国发展大局。从2023年年底开始，香港整个政治经济面貌可以用四个字概括：由治及兴——从治理整治到振兴发展，国家开始积极赋能。一个标志性的转折信号是2023年中央金融工作会议明确提出要“巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位”。我们看到2023年曾有一股歪风造谣说香港已经是“国际金融中心遗址”，已经不是国际金融中心了。中央金融工作会议明确表态国家赋能，明确提出巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，这是香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。香港长牛特色之二：财富从避险资产流入港股第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。这个大潮方兴未艾——今年7月份居民储蓄当月减少了1.1万亿，而在此之前二季度居民储蓄存款净增加了5万亿人民币。整个社会财富从避险资产向股市再配置的浪潮刚刚开始，而且是个良性循环。只要不是疯牛，只要是一个拾级而上的行情，配置节奏也会比较平缓。我们需要关注的一个指标是：2022年到2023年上半年，我国居民定期存款出现一个小高潮。那时三年期定存利率基本可以达到3%左右，而现在三年期定存利率可能只有1.7%左右。十年期国债收益率是多少呢？也是1.7%左右。余额宝等货币基金的七天年化收益率可能在1%左右。保险寿险的预定利率现在也都降到了2%左右。在这样的时代，权益资产的性价比其实比避险资产更好。所以这种情况下，港股和A股都受益于中国社会财富的再配置。我们不要妄自菲薄。我们已是世界第二大经济体，不用总关注外资很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。改革开放40年的积累，我们不像拉美，也不像东南亚，我们没有经历过金融危机，没有被西方资本强取豪夺，我们的财富积累下来了，只是现在都堆积在避险资产里。下一步，在时代红利和国家政策引领下，在有形之手的推动下，长线资金入市的堵点已经打通了。后续除了长线资金、国家队、汇金、保险社保之外，我们认为“老鼠拉木锨——大头在后头”：整个社会财富、居民储蓄搬家，以及社会财富从银行理财、货币基金、固收类资产、甚至保险分红型资产，向权益资产再配置。我认为这是一个大趋势，是时代大趋势。这个状态就像00年代大家去买房子一样，刚开始还怀疑行不行，涨多了又害怕。你看04、05年就有一堆人喊上海房价有泡沫、要崩盘，结果从04、05年到2020年，上海房价平均从4100元/平涨到市区10万/平以上。所以风物长宜放眼量，要有大的历史视角来看问题。所以我们讲，第二点就是港股和A股都有希望，而且我认为这是必然的——必将受益于中国社会财富的再配置。所谓“栽下梧桐树，引得凤凰来”。港股长牛特色之三：生态环境加速良性循环第三个方面，港股的生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟2021年到2024年年初是不一样的。过去几年，由于新旧动能切换，比如香港地产链、防止资本无序扩张对房地产相关产业链的压制，以及教培等行业调控，在2024年年初之前，整个香港的基本面和上市公司基本面毫无生气，大家比较悲观，资金都拥挤在纯粹的避险型央企红利资产上，把它当做债券类的红利资产，比如三桶油、四大行、三大运营商等。但有活力、有成长性的资产，大家非常悲观。那时海外压制中国资产，海外投资者有三大预期，一直压制着中国资产特别是港股，导致2023年8月份港股卖空占比达到离谱的35%左右，做空港股成为全球最拥挤的两大交易策略之一。当时的“三座大山”是：第一，觉得中国经济受房地产拖累会出现硬着陆，即“中国经济危机论”，现已被证伪；第二，觉得中国科技落后，美国在先进半导体和AI上卡我们脖子；第三，“民企退场论”，因为当时新旧动能切换对民企地产、互联网等有影响。所以当时外资不断撤离，觉得中国资产只有交易价值，没有投资价值，甚至现在仍有少数海外投资者没转变过来。但我们要讲的是，从2023年中央金融工作会议之后，特别是去年9月24日和9月26日以来，中国产业发展和经济发展格局已经非常明确，只是很多人不能理解。我们要用政治经济学框架，而不是纯粹西方金融思维来看这个问题。现在看，从去年9月政治局会议鼓励民营企业发展，到今年2月17日民营企业座谈会，再到5月份《民营经济促进法》等，一系列举措都表明“民企退场论”被推翻、被证伪。不仅如此，北交所、科创板甚至港股的新消费、创新药、机器人、半导体等，大多都是民营资本、民营企业在崛起和快速发展。所谓“中国科技落后论”也被丢到太平洋，因为正如开头所讲，无论是DeepSeek、AI、机器人、军工科技还是创新药，我们在科技层面全面突破，在全球呈现追赶甚至领先的趋势。所谓“中国经济硬着陆论”或“中国日本模式论”也在不断被推翻、被证伪。因为我刚才讲了中国中央政府资产负债表非常干净，足以托底不出现大的系统性风险。同时，中国是全球最大的内需市场——从商品消费角度，我们已是全球最大市场。美国之所以是全球最大市场，是因为它的服务消费比我们大得多。但纯粹从商品消费看，中国已是世界最大内需市场，所以我们跟当年的日本不一样。新动能已开始蓬勃发展，中国经济开始企稳，开始缓慢走向高质量发展和改善的过程。我说中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。当时美国经济内需也在低位徘徊，但像山姆店、Costco等新兴商业模式开始崛起，当时著名基金经理彼得·林奇就是看老婆孩子买什么就找什么股票。中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。这种情况下，港股生态环境持续良性循环，特别是优质民营资本、科技、新消费、创新药企业纷纷到香港上市，给市场带来生机和引领。境内外增量资金持续流入香港市场，包括对中国理解正确的先知先觉主动管理型外资，从今年上半年开始布局，如亚太区的韩国、中国台湾、东南亚新加坡等。假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。港股长牛特色之四：外资主导离岸市场化转向泛中资主导的在岸市场化第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化，转向中国方、中资及中国朋友圈（认同中国发展理念的泛中资）主导的在岸市场化。离岸市场和在岸市场有什么区别？离岸市场通常是外围的、非核心布局的，所以你看较长时间里，无论是中国内地投资者还是外资，都像过江龙一样——A股涨了看港股是洼地就过去，赚不到钱又回来，没把港股当主战场；外资也是美股涨多了看港股是洼地就冲一波，涨多了就减仓甚至做空，像是扶贫，是离岸市场。在岸市场不一样。在岸市场对优质公司有长期判断和拥抱，你看美股最典型——在岸市场如债券市场，本土资金是定海神针和支柱，好资产跌多了就有资金立足中长期布局，不像离岸市场越跌做空力量越凶、跌无止境。我们认为这次港股市场投资逻辑的转变，就是从离岸市场转向在岸市场。可以看到投资风格也发生变化：原来是以深度价值（Deep Value）围绕确定性给溢价，所以红利型深度价值资产弹起来赚钱机会也大；现在在岸市场投资风格更加多元化。除了价值股（作为盾牌支撑中枢上移，特别是红利资产、传统行业龙头和核心资产持续价值重估）之外，以科技、新消费、创新药为代表的成长性资产会给予成长溢价——高增长给高估值。这就是在岸市场的魅力：国产算力在A股可以出现几百倍估值，在美股你看科技、创新甚至明显很烂的稀土股票也是市梦率估值。并不是成熟市场估值就一定低，美股这几年其实给成长股估值溢价。所以在岸市场的特征是风格更加多元化、攻守兼备：有价值股机会，也有成长股机会，而成长股会基于成长性给溢价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":561573177332432,"gmtCreate":1778134622005,"gmtModify":1778134624617,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$&nbsp;</a> 48.56","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$&nbsp;</a> 48.56","text":"$快手-W(01024)$ 48.56","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561573177332432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":531888371402088,"gmtCreate":1770874684179,"gmtModify":1770874686779,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 84.55","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 84.55","text":"$美團-W(03690)$ 84.55","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/531888371402088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":531874654425768,"gmtCreate":1770873886118,"gmtModify":1770873888967,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 84.9","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 84.9","text":"$美團-W(03690)$ 84.9","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/531874654425768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":475929976660544,"gmtCreate":1757221308307,"gmtModify":1757221313207,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Naive","listText":"Naive","text":"Naive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/475929976660544","repostId":"2565589615","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2565589615","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1757039705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2565589615?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-09-05 10:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Zhang Yidong: A shares and Hong Kong stocks will go out of the 20-year super bull market, similar to the 20-year bull market of real estate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2565589615","media":"投资作业本Pro","summary":"解释了港股长牛的内在原因。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">Industrial Securities</a>Zhang Yidong, the chief strategist of the world, explained the logic that A shares and Hong Kong stocks will usher in a 20-year super bull market from two aspects: \"dividend of the times\" and \"guidance by the visible hand of the state\", and further explained the internal reasons for the long bull market of Hong Kong stocks from the four characteristics of Hong Kong market.</p><p><strong>The key points are as follows:</strong></p><p>1. A super long cow of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super long cow for more than 20 years.</p><p>2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</p><p>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called times make heroes.</p><p>3. Don't think about (this bull market in China) mad cows and fast cows, impossible, they must be long cows.</p><p>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</p><p>We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow ends up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p>4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".</p><p>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</p><p>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.</p><p>The long cow in the United States is a tortoise-style slow cow.</p><p>5. (China) This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long cattle that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p>6. This round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Taking advantage of righteousness is to look at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to improve the country in the long run<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.</p><p>8. There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herd effect.</p><p>Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little.</p><p>9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from the beginning of 2021 to 24.</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stocks is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to pan-Chinese capital in China, the circle of friends between China and China, or this pan-Chinese capital-dominated onshore marketization that agrees with China's development concept.</p><p>10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</p><p>11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</p><p>12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural highlights in China, it can be said that they are coming and going one after another.</p><p>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</p><p>13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long cattle continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</p><p><strong>A-share Hong Kong stocks may go out of a 20-year super long bull</strong></p><p>Q: General Manager Yi Dong, first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. Firstly<strong>Let's talk about a super long bull of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may emerge from a super long bull for more than 20 years.</strong></p><p>This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually the way our economy grows. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about the golden development period of China's equity assets.</p><p>From the 1990s until 2023, on the whole, that was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.</p><p>What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion type and relatively extensive economic growth mode.</p><p>Since 1998, the real estate era has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about the golden age of China's financing, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.</p><p>However, around 2020, after China's overall balance sheet expanded, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that started in 2020 quietly came. The momentum of economic growth represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.</p><p>The debt-expansion mode of economic growth is becoming increasingly inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government sector-have all experienced high debt ratios after expanding in the past two or three decades.</p><p>Most critically, the pull effect on GDP is weaker and weaker for every extra cent of debt. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and become a country driven by scientific and technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.</p><p>Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.</p><p>One of China's healthiest balance sheets is that of the central government. At the end of 2024, China's Treasury Bond balance was only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as $36 trillion, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, which is about 100 percentage points higher than ours.</p><p>Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to the data of the Academy of Social Sciences, the narrow local government debt ratio may be as high as about 40%.</p><p>The IMF calculation is probably higher. We have room to expand the government debt ratio, which is not impossible.</p><p><strong>There is no systemic risk in China's economy and it is necessary to change the mode of economic development</strong></p><p>We know that the government can hold the bottom, and there is no hard landing or systemic risk for the Chinese economy.</p><p>But the development question now is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion or change the path?</p><p>If we are going to take the road of debt expansion, we also have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.</p><p>The balance sheet of the Chinese household sector used to be very healthy, and the Chinese had a saving habit. But unfortunately, from 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's household sector is also expanding rapidly.</p><p>In 2008, the debt ratio of the household sector to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. However, by 24 years, the debt ratio of the residential sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. The room for debt expansion in the residential sector is very limited and has a ceiling.</p><p>Because our national character is frugality as a virtue, we are a restrained nation.</p><p>Our residential sector debt ratio is hardly higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector also remains persistently high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local governments<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.</p><p>In the United States, the corporate sector debt ratio is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.</p><p>So don't have illusions, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't follow the American model and release water. This is not the case. There is no systemic risk in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem for China's economy is to shift its development model.</p><p>What is the focus of changing the development model? Like the asset classification table, our focus for the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.</p><p>Because the base is already very high, it is more about covering the bottom. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.</p><p><strong>The role of capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assets</strong></p><p>Now it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet can't just look at assets, but also look at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.</p><p>By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries, and become the most competitive company.</p><p>Therefore, the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the debt expansion period in the past two or three decades.</p><p>In the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body, and it is the core channel of China's monetary expansion and credit creation. Now, in the era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.</p><p>It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.</p><p>The social wealth accumulated by reform and opening up in the past 40 years is now basically accumulated in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.</p><p>It is necessary to invest these wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.</p><p>Why is it a 20-or 30-year-old cow?</p><p>In this way, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A shares will come out of the super long bull. Long bull is a small goal, which may be twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?</p><p>We know of an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-pay attention to the time node of 2020, which is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to convert. We begin to feel the pain of the decline of the old kinetic energy, and the new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.</strong></p><p>But it is different now. With the comprehensive improvement of DeepSeek, sixth-generation machines, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects of science and technology at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military science and technology from the India-Pakistan conflict on May 7th to the military parade on September 3rd and even the global leadership, let's see that new kinetic energy is beginning to mushroom.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new kinetic energy, and the economy has begun to stabilize.</strong></p><p><strong>The period from 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.</strong></p><p>Significant progress has been made in various fields such as economy, science and technology, culture and ecology, especially in order to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30-year process of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.</p><p>Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an economy dominated by agricultural society to a large-scale industrialized and urbanized economy.</p><p>After that, China should move from a large economy to a strong country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.</p><p><strong>All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are only carriers, and times make heroes.</strong></p><p><strong>Now China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important hub role, which affects the whole body.</strong></p><p>It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.</p><p>For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental rate of return of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is behind us, there's no doubt about it.</p><p>Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.</p><p>More conservatively, by the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents were as high as 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security and pensions would definitely exceed 200 trillion yuan by simple calculation.</p><p>How to revitalize these more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is also more than 200 trillion yuan.</p><p>This asset has higher liquidity, so it should be actively distributed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, thus forming the wealth effect of social wealth.</p><p>Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but participate more actively in China's new productivity tide.</p><p><strong>\"Cold King\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, we should look at the problem from the perspective of development</strong></p><p>For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective.</p><p><strong>Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</strong></p><p><strong>The rise is made by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.</strong>From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's North Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis double-click, and their performance and valuation are going up.</p><p><strong>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</strong></p><p><strong>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development.</strong></p><p>The wealth-making effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to make venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, AI and other scientific and technological fields, forming a spark that can fire a prairie fire, and the capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperforms the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Bull,<strong>This super long bull is called times make heroes.</strong></p><p>Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next 20 years or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents and enterprises.</p><p>Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.</p><p><strong>This is the first point I talk about-the dividend of the times.</strong></p><p>Everyone must not think about mad cows, fast cows, impossible, it must be long cows</p><p>Second point,<strong>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</strong></p><p>Using the data, the Central Financial Work Conference was held at the end of October 2023, and it was clearly stated that we should unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.</p><p>The Western financial model is market-oriented, pure and absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.</p><p>Over the years, inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return manufacturing industries. At most, some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields can be returned, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries can't.</p><p>This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, the interest orientation.</p><p>The Chinese-style development model is different. Especially after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, we put more emphasis on the leadership of the Party, the leadership of the Party in everything, and the leadership of Party building.</p><p>Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people's and functional, and is led by a visible hand.</p><p>The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government,<strong>Lessons learned from the 2014-2015 Mad Cow</strong>— — Leveraged cattle end up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p><strong>Therefore, everyone must not think about mad cows and fast cows. Impossible, it must be long cows.</strong></p><p>This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p><strong>I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", and learn from the running mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise-rabbit race.</strong></p><p><strong>American long cows are tortoise-like slow cows,</strong>Because of its marketization and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will short to make money.</p><p>China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and it is necessary to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors as a whole.</p><p>Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.</p><p>So we say now<strong>Emphasizing the Road of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics in the Background of China</strong>In line with other aspects of the Party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>In this case, to understand China's long bull, we can learn from the long bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.</strong>But this long cow is not a tortoise-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":<strong>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</strong></p><p><strong>Due to the lack of market-oriented abundant short-selling mechanism in our capital market, once sentiment comes</strong>Rushing up,<strong>The herd effect is very strong</strong>。 Coupled with the fact that there are high-frequency quantitative subjects now, the influence is getting bigger and bigger, so it goes very fast.</p><p><strong>Going fast is no problem, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"adding noodles when there is more water, and adding water when there is more noodles\". Now, in a virtuous circle, long-term funds have entered the market, and \"saving and moving\" has been in the ascendant (at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy.</strong></p><p>The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter to accelerate. After the acceleration, the rhythm of IPO and refinancing will definitely happen in the future. This is the deduction of rules.</p><p><strong>Because this round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</strong></p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>Before 2020, local governments were more engaged in land finance and iron and public infrastructure, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and all places learned the Hefei model, including Xi' an, Changsha, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.</p><p>Hefei model is equity finance, which empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle by actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation.</p><p>Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green economy</a>Low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.</p><p>If these new productivity assets can't be realized for a long time, that is, the assets without valuation may even be discounted continuously, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.</p><p>On the other hand, if the leading companies exchange stocks for over-the-counter assets and the equity of unlisted companies through mergers and acquisitions (the next step is to boom again in mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations in China's capital market), and fast fish eat slow fish and big fish eat small fish, a virtuous circle will be formed.</p><p><strong>Listed companies gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profit.</strong></p><p>For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.</p><p>But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled many times, quickly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to withdraw but have no channels.</p><p>If the leading company in the same industry acquires over-the-counter assets through stock exchange rights (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), it will quickly form the optimization of competition pattern and survival of the fittest in the industry.</p><p>All of this allows us to see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>Under the leadership of the visible hand of the government, the Group will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.</p><p>Before 2023 and now are two stock markets</p><p>So let's say,<strong>The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</strong></p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Profit from righteousness means looking at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.</p><p>Therefore, now China's capital market has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and scientific and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.</p><p><strong>This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.</strong></p><p><strong>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (market-oriented rich and powerful short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the Western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.</strong></p><p>Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, well, serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.</p><p>This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which restrains excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.</p><p><strong>There is no need to envy, envy or hate the short-term herd effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</strong></p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bulls from the essence.</p><p><strong>This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.</strong></p><p><strong>This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 have been through shock consolidation.</strong></p><p><strong>Beginning in 2024, Hong Kong is also accelerating its integration into the overall development of the motherland with reopen in 2023.</strong></p><p>One of the characteristics of Hong Kong Long Bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the country</p><p>At the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.</p><p>What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.</p><p>What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.</p><p>From the end of 2023, the whole political and economic landscape of Hong Kong can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity — from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.</p><p>A landmark turning signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center\".</p><p>We saw that in 2023, there was a bad trend spreading rumors that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center site\" and no longer an international financial center.</p><p>The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the state empowerment, and clearly put forward to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the state.</p><p>Feature 2 of Hong Kong Long Bull: Wealth Flows into Hong Kong Stocks from Safe-haven Assets</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>This tide is on the rise-household savings fell by 1.1 trillion yuan in July this year, after a net increase of 5 trillion yuan in household savings deposits in the second quarter. The wave of social wealth reallocation from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.</p><p>As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a climbing market, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.</p><p>One indicator that we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small upsurge in the time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.</p><p>What is the ten-year Treasury Bond yield? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu' ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.</p><p>In times like this,<strong>The cost performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not underestimate ourselves.</strong></p><p>We are the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to pay attention to foreign investment</p><p><strong>Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital doesn't come to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</strong></p><p><strong>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</strong></p><p>With the accumulation of 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis or been seized by Western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.</p><p><strong>In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.</strong></p><p><strong>In addition to long-term funds, national team,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we think that \"the mouse pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, the movement of residents' savings, and the reconfiguration of social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets and even insurance dividend assets to equity assets.</strong></p><p><strong>I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is like when everyone went to buy a house in the 00s. At first, I doubted whether it would work, but I was afraid when it rose too much.</strong></p><p>You see, in 2004 and 05, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's house prices were bubbling and about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 05 to 2020, Shanghai's house prices rose from 4,100 yuan/ping to more than 100,000 yuan/ping in the urban area on average.</p><p>So<strong>It is advisable to take a long view of the landscape and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.</strong></p><p>So we're talking,<strong>The second point is that both Hong Kong stocks and A shares have hope, and I think this is inevitable-they will surely benefit from the reconfiguration of Chinese social wealth. The so-called \"planting a sycamore tree, attracting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".</strong></p><p>The Third Feature of Long Bull in Hong Kong Stocks: Ecological Environment Accelerates a Virtuous Circle</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.</p><p>In the past few years, due to the switching of old and new kinetic energy, such as the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of industries such as education and training, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of the whole Hong Kong and listed companies were lifeless. Everyone was pessimistic, and the funds were crowded in the dividend assets of pure safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks and three major operators. However, everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growth assets.</p><p>At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations, which had been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, short selling of Hong Kong stocks accounted for an outrageous 35% in August 2023, and short selling of Hong Kong stocks became one of the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.</p><p>At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, it was felt that China's economy would have a hard landing due to the drag of real estate, that is, the \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has now been falsified; Second, I feel that China's science and technology are backward, and the United States is stuck in our necks on advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, \"the exit theory of private enterprises\", because at that time, the switching of old and new kinetic energy had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.</p><p>Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, feeling that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.</p><p>But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industries</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.</p><p>We should look at this problem in the framework of political economy, not purely Western financial thinking.</p><p>Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.</p><p>Not only that, but the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. of the North Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are mostly private capital and private enterprises rising and developing rapidly.</p><p>The so-called \"theory of China's backwardness in science and technology\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robots, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading in the world.</p><p><strong>The so-called \"hard landing theory of China's economy\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" is also constantly being overturned and falsified.</strong></p><p>Because I just said that the balance sheet of the Chinese central government is very clean, enough to support the bottom without major systemic risks.</p><p>At the same time, China is the largest domestic market in the world-we are already the largest market in the world from the perspective of commodity consumption. The United States is the world's largest market because its consumption of services is much larger than ours.</p><p><strong>But purely in terms of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic market,</strong>So we are different from Japan back then.</p><p><strong>New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize, slowly moving towards high-quality development and improvement.</strong></p><p><strong>I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s.</strong></p><p><strong>What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</strong></p><p>At that time, the domestic demand of the US economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Shop and Costco began to rise. At that time, Peter Lynch, a famous fund manager, just looked for what his wife and children bought.</p><p><strong>Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.</strong></p><p><strong>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</strong></p><p>Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to be in a virtuous circle. In particular, high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption and innovative drug companies have gone public in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.</p><p><strong>Incremental domestic and overseas funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign funds with a correct understanding of China, which began to be deployed in the first half of this year, such as South Korea, Taiwan Province, and Singapore in Southeast Asia in the Asia-Pacific region.</strong></p><p>false<strong>Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</strong></p><p>The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks: offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by pan-Chinese capital</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stock bull is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by Chinese, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agree with China's development concept).</p><p>What is the difference between an offshore market and an onshore market?</p><p>The offshore market is usually a peripheral and non-core layout, so you can see that for a long time, both mainland Chinese investors and foreign investors are like dragons crossing the river-when A shares rise, they will pass when Hong Kong stocks are depressed, and they will come back if they can't make money, without taking Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;</p><p>Foreign capital is also a wave when US stocks rise too much. If Hong Kong stocks rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short them, like poverty alleviation, which is an offshore market.</p><p>Onshore markets are different.</p><p>The onshore market has a long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. You look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market such as the bond market,<strong>Local funds are the needle and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium-and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the more the short selling force falls, the more fierce it will be and the fall will be endless.</strong></p><p>We think<strong>This time, the change of investment logic in Hong Kong stock market is to shift from offshore market to onshore market.</strong></p><p><strong>You can see that investment style has also changed</strong>: It turns out that Deep Value is a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance to make money when they bounce up; Now the onshore market investing style is more diversified.</p><p>In addition to value stocks (which support the upward movement of the hub as a shield, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs will give a growth premium- -High growth gives high valuation.</p><p>This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A shares, and in US stocks, you can see that technology, innovation and even obviously bad rare earth stocks are also market dream rate valuations.</p><p><strong>It's not that mature market valuations are necessarily low</strong>In recent years, US stocks have actually given growth stocks a valuation premium.</p><p><strong>Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles, both offensive and defensive</strong>: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give a premium based on growth.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1716810789658","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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A super long cow of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, may emerge from a super long cow for more than 20 years.</p><p>2. For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective. Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</p><p>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</p><p>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development. This super long bull is called times make heroes.</p><p>3. Don't think about (this bull market in China) mad cows and fast cows, impossible, they must be long cows.</p><p>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</p><p>We will learn the lesson of the mad cow in 2014-2015-the leveraged cow ends up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p>4. I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\".</p><p>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</p><p>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment.</p><p>The long cow in the United States is a tortoise-style slow cow.</p><p>5. (China) This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020, and the real estate long cattle that has been prosperous for more than 20 years: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p>6. This round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>7. The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Taking advantage of righteousness is to look at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to improve the country in the long run<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Benefits.</p><p>8. There is no need to envy or hate the short-term herd effect.</p><p>Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little.</p><p>9. The first point of Hong Kong characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the country.</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from the beginning of 2021 to 24.</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stocks is that the underlying investment logic of Hong Kong stocks has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to pan-Chinese capital in China, the circle of friends between China and China, or this pan-Chinese capital-dominated onshore marketization that agrees with China's development concept.</p><p>10. Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital does not come to A-share Hong Kong stocks.</p><p>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</p><p>11. China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s. What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</p><p>12. Whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural highlights in China, it can be said that they are coming and going one after another.</p><p>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</p><p>13. Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long cattle continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</p><p><strong>A-share Hong Kong stocks may go out of a 20-year super long bull</strong></p><p>Q: General Manager Yi Dong, first review a performance of the Hong Kong stock market in August. Including you mentioned that Hong Kong stocks will go out of the super long bull. What is the main basis for this judgment?</p><p>Zhang Yidong: I want to share it with you from two dimensions. Firstly<strong>Let's talk about a super long bull of China's equity assets, including A shares and Hong Kong stocks, which may emerge from a super long bull for more than 20 years.</strong></p><p>This is an important macro narrative, and the most critical macro narrative is actually the way our economy grows. The transformation of China's economic growth mode has brought about the golden development period of China's equity assets.</p><p>From the 1990s until 2023, on the whole, that was the expansion period of China's old kinetic energy.</p><p>What is China's old kinetic energy? It is a debt expansion type and relatively extensive economic growth mode.</p><p>Since 1998, the real estate era has begun. The continuous expansion of real estate has brought about the golden age of China's financing, which corresponds to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization.</p><p>However, around 2020, after China's overall balance sheet expanded, some development confusion began to appear, that is, the painful period of conversion between old and new kinetic energy that started in 2020 quietly came. The momentum of economic growth represented by real estate is slowing down significantly.</p><p>The debt-expansion mode of economic growth is becoming increasingly inefficient. China's three balance sheets-the residential sector, the enterprise sector and the government sector-have all experienced high debt ratios after expanding in the past two or three decades.</p><p>Most critically, the pull effect on GDP is weaker and weaker for every extra cent of debt. At this time, if China's economy wants to turn to high-quality development and become a country driven by scientific and technological innovation, it needs to pay attention to direct financing and make use of the empowerment of the capital market.</p><p>Let's briefly review the debt ratio issue.</p><p>One of China's healthiest balance sheets is that of the central government. At the end of 2024, China's Treasury Bond balance was only 34.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 26% of GDP. During the same period, the debt ratio of the U.S. federal government was as high as $36 trillion, accounting for about 126.8% of GDP, which is about 100 percentage points higher than ours.</p><p>Our worry lies in local debt. Without considering hidden debt, according to the data of the Academy of Social Sciences, the narrow local government debt ratio may be as high as about 40%.</p><p>The IMF calculation is probably higher. We have room to expand the government debt ratio, which is not impossible.</p><p><strong>There is no systemic risk in China's economy and it is necessary to change the mode of economic development</strong></p><p>We know that the government can hold the bottom, and there is no hard landing or systemic risk for the Chinese economy.</p><p>But the development question now is, should we continue to take the road of debt expansion or change the path?</p><p>If we are going to take the road of debt expansion, we also have to look at the other two tables-the balance sheets of the corporate sector and the residential sector.</p><p>The balance sheet of the Chinese household sector used to be very healthy, and the Chinese had a saving habit. But unfortunately, from 2008, especially after 2016, the balance sheet of China's household sector is also expanding rapidly.</p><p>In 2008, the debt ratio of the household sector to GDP was less than 20%, about 17%-18%. However, by 24 years, the debt ratio of the residential sector was close to 60%, while that of the United States was only about 70%. The room for debt expansion in the residential sector is very limited and has a ceiling.</p><p>Because our national character is frugality as a virtue, we are a restrained nation.</p><p>Our residential sector debt ratio is hardly higher than that of the United States. The debt ratio of the corporate sector also remains persistently high. As of the third quarter of last year, the debt ratio of China's corporate sector was as high as 142%, not including local governments<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600649\">Chengtou</a>Platform companies, if added may be higher.</p><p>In the United States, the corporate sector debt ratio is only about 74%. These data let us know that it is imperative to change China's economic development model.</p><p>So don't have illusions, everyone. Now some overseas economists are always making crooked tricks, complaining about why the Chinese government doesn't expand and why it doesn't follow the American model and release water. This is not the case. There is no systemic risk in China's economy. Why not improve the efficiency of economic growth? The problem for China's economy is to shift its development model.</p><p>What is the focus of changing the development model? Like the asset classification table, our focus for the past 30 years has been on debt-driven GDP growth. However, relying on the old kinetic energy of iron public foundation and real estate, the efficiency is getting lower and lower.</p><p>Because the base is already very high, it is more about covering the bottom. Guarantee economic sustainability. High-quality development and efficient development must change the growth mode.</p><p><strong>The role of capital market in the next 20 years is to revitalize assets</strong></p><p>Now it's very simple. Looking at the balance sheet can't just look at assets, but also look at liabilities. In the next 20 years or even longer, the role of the capital market is to revitalize assets.</p><p>By revitalizing assets and improving efficiency, we will strive to expand globally for China's technological innovation, new consumption and core assets in traditional mature industries, and become the most competitive company.</p><p>Therefore, the future capital market is just like the role of real estate in the debt expansion period in the past two or three decades.</p><p>In the period of debt expansion, real estate is the hub that affects the whole body, and it is the core channel of China's monetary expansion and credit creation. Now, in the era of high-quality development, to revitalize assets, the capital market has played a role in affecting the whole body.</p><p>It realizes the optimal allocation of social wealth by revitalizing the balance sheet of enterprises and residents.</p><p>The social wealth accumulated by reform and opening up in the past 40 years is now basically accumulated in some inefficient or safe-haven assets.</p><p>It is necessary to invest these wealth in more efficient fields through the capital market, such as new productivity such as hard technology, high technology and new consumption, so as to drive a virtuous circle of high-quality development of the capital market and the real economy.</p><p>Why is it a 20-or 30-year-old cow?</p><p>In this way, we can know that not only Hong Kong stocks, but also A shares will come out of the super long bull. Long bull is a small goal, which may be twenty or thirty years. Why is twenty or thirty years just right?</p><p>We know of an important event: by the middle of this century, China will complete Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is divided into two steps: the first step is from 2020 to 2035-pay attention to the time node of 2020, which is the year when China's old and new kinetic energy begins to convert. We begin to feel the pain of the decline of the old kinetic energy, and the new kinetic energy has not yet stood out.</strong></p><p>But it is different now. With the comprehensive improvement of DeepSeek, sixth-generation machines, innovative drugs, robots and other aspects of science and technology at the beginning of this year, especially the rise of China's military science and technology from the India-Pakistan conflict on May 7th to the military parade on September 3rd and even the global leadership, let's see that new kinetic energy is beginning to mushroom.</p><p><strong>Chinese-style modernization is already on the way. We have stepped out of the shock period of switching between old and new kinetic energy, and the economy has begun to stabilize.</strong></p><p><strong>The period from 2020 to 2035 is the first step of Chinese-style modernization, basically realizing socialist modernization.</strong></p><p>Significant progress has been made in various fields such as economy, science and technology, culture and ecology, especially in order to rank among the forefront of innovative countries. You know, in the 20-30-year process of economic development from 1990s to 2020, it was mainly driven by debt expansion.</p><p>Moreover, we were in the process of moving from an economy dominated by agricultural society to a large-scale industrialized and urbanized economy.</p><p>After that, China should move from a large economy to a strong country, be able to innovate independently and become the forefront of innovative countries.</p><p><strong>All this makes us see that this is the dividend of the times, and we should embrace this dividend. Because both the stock market and the property market are only carriers, and times make heroes.</strong></p><p><strong>Now China's economic development model just makes the capital market play the most important hub role, which affects the whole body.</strong></p><p>It can revitalize social wealth, revitalize the asset side of the balance sheet, and exert efficiency.</p><p>For a simple example, about half of residents' wealth is in real estate, which is basically trapped. However, the rental rate of return of real estate in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities has begun to exceed the risk-free rate of return, so there is no need to panic and sell. But the golden age of real estate is behind us, there's no doubt about it.</p><p>Therefore, if residents' wealth is in real estate, they can wait, but if there are many houses, they can be further revitalized, and efficiency can be exerted through the capital market from an inefficient and stalemate state.</p><p>More conservatively, by the end of June this year, the savings deposits of Chinese residents were as high as 162 trillion yuan, plus more than 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and the social wealth in a large number of fixed-income assets such as insurance, social security and pensions would definitely exceed 200 trillion yuan by simple calculation.</p><p>How to revitalize these more than 200 trillion yuan? In addition to real estate (accounting for about 250 trillion yuan of social wealth), the other half of residents' wealth is also more than 200 trillion yuan.</p><p>This asset has higher liquidity, so it should be actively distributed to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, so as to exert higher efficiency and better resource allocation efficiency through the capital market, thus forming the wealth effect of social wealth.</p><p>Let entrepreneurs no longer lie flat, especially private entrepreneurs no longer always consider global allocation and capital outflow, but participate more actively in China's new productivity tide.</p><p><strong>\"Cold King\" was questioned as too expensive? Rising is created by the times, we should look at the problem from the perspective of development</strong></p><p>For example, many people question that the so-called \"cold kings\" of domestic computing power are too expensive and bubbly. We should look at the problem from a development perspective.</p><p><strong>Its benchmarking role is like the \"fool's melon seeds\" in the early stage of reform and opening up, or the pulling effect of the soaring housing prices in first-tier cities on the whole real estate. At that time, real estate played a role in promoting all aspects of China's economy.</strong></p><p><strong>The rise is made by the times, not calculated by static old-fashioned EPS and short-term PE.</strong>From the perspective of social development, this time, the technology companies in China's North Stock Exchange, Science and Technology Innovation Board and Main Board, especially the good companies corresponding to the AI wave, are experiencing Davis double-click, and their performance and valuation are going up.</p><p><strong>But I am not suggesting that everyone chase high without brain, just that this phenomenon is of contemporary significance. Just like the houses in Shanghai in the 2000s, they always felt expensive, and they always said that the rental rate of return did not match the income. Now that the income is matched and the rental return is high, people don't buy it.</strong></p><p><strong>This is actually the wave of the times, and we should look at the problem from the perspective of development.</strong></p><p>The wealth-making effect and wealth effect of the capital market attract attention, making entrepreneurs willing to make venture capital, be angel investors, and invest in semiconductors, robots, innovative drugs, low-altitude economy, AI and other scientific and technological fields, forming a spark that can fire a prairie fire, and the capital market helps social wealth optimize resource allocation.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>By participating in the capital market (for example, buying funds this year basically outperforms the index), after wealth improves, risk appetite increases, and marginal consumption propensity also increases. That's why I watch Super Bull,<strong>This super long bull is called times make heroes.</strong></p><p>Now that Chinese-style modernization is moving towards the middle of this century, the development in the next 20 years or so will be high-quality development, optimizing resource allocation through the capital market and revitalizing the balance sheets of the government, residents and enterprises.</p><p>Use asset-side expansion to resolve debt worries. When assets expand, the asset-liability ratio will naturally come down, and the panic about liabilities will be completely and effectively reduced.</p><p><strong>This is the first point I talk about-the dividend of the times.</strong></p><p>Everyone must not think about mad cows, fast cows, impossible, it must be long cows</p><p>Second point,<strong>The biggest difference between this time and before is that the national strength and visible hand are leading.</strong></p><p>Using the data, the Central Financial Work Conference was held at the end of October 2023, and it was clearly stated that we should unswervingly follow the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics, which is essentially different from the Western financial model.</p><p>The Western financial model is market-oriented, pure and absolute market-oriented, and to put it bluntly, it is interest-oriented.</p><p>Over the years, inefficient shipbuilding, steel, textiles and clothing in the United States have all been transferred to other countries. It is very difficult for the United States to return manufacturing industries. At most, some advanced manufacturing industries in high-tech fields can be returned, but inefficient and unprofitable manufacturing industries can't.</p><p>This is the characteristic of the American capital market, that is, the interest orientation.</p><p>The Chinese-style development model is different. Especially after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, we put more emphasis on the leadership of the Party, the leadership of the Party in everything, and the leadership of Party building.</p><p>Under this background, the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics is political, people's and functional, and is led by a visible hand.</p><p>The requirement for the capital market is to coordinate and coordinate the relationship between an efficient market and a promising government,<strong>Lessons learned from the 2014-2015 Mad Cow</strong>— — Leveraged cattle end up being a chicken feather. Instead of forming positive feedback to the real economy through the capital market, the state has to spend a lot of resources to rescue the market. This is a painful lesson.</p><p><strong>Therefore, everyone must not think about mad cows and fast cows. Impossible, it must be long cows.</strong></p><p>This long cattle moves like the real estate from 1998 to 2020: it moves faster and the heat is high, and the policy regulation will be pressured; When it is cold, the policy will support it, and it will move forward in such a shock.</p><p><strong>I compare the image of the long bull in China's stock market (A shares and Hong Kong stocks) under the leadership of this visible hand to the \"little white rabbit-style long bull\", and learn from the running mode of the turtle and the little white rabbit in the tortoise-rabbit race.</strong></p><p><strong>American long cows are tortoise-like slow cows,</strong>Because of its marketization and profit-seeking, it has a strong and rich short-selling mechanism and three-dimensional trading mechanism. If it rises fast, some people will short to make money.</p><p>China's short-selling mechanism is relatively imperfect, and it is necessary to protect the interests of small and medium-sized investors as a whole.</p><p>Under the background of Chinese characteristics, we should adapt measures to local conditions and don't blindly copy others, otherwise it will become a joke that \"Huainan is orange and Huaibei is orange\". The development model suitable for national conditions is truly effective.</p><p>So we say now<strong>Emphasizing the Road of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics in the Background of China</strong>In line with other aspects of the Party's leadership of Chinese-style modernization.</p><p><strong>In this case, to understand China's long bull, we can learn from the long bull of the real estate boom for more than 20 years.</strong>But this long cow is not a tortoise-style slow cow, but a \"little white rabbit-style long cow\":<strong>The little white rabbit rushes and runs fast in the tortoise and rabbit race, then sleeps and adjusts, wakes up and springs again, sleeps again and rushes again.</strong></p><p><strong>Due to the lack of market-oriented abundant short-selling mechanism in our capital market, once sentiment comes</strong>Rushing up,<strong>The herd effect is very strong</strong>。 Coupled with the fact that there are high-frequency quantitative subjects now, the influence is getting bigger and bigger, so it goes very fast.</p><p><strong>Going fast is no problem, but there will be regulation, which is nothing more than \"adding noodles when there is more water, and adding water when there is more noodles\". Now, in a virtuous circle, long-term funds have entered the market, and \"saving and moving\" has been in the ascendant (at the beginning), and it is still relatively healthy.</strong></p><p>The overall market has accelerated a bit since June. It doesn't matter to accelerate. After the acceleration, the rhythm of IPO and refinancing will definitely happen in the future. This is the deduction of rules.</p><p><strong>Because this round of long cattle is not to cut national leeks for a few speculators and rich capitalists, but to revitalize social wealth through long cattle and help improve the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises and residents.</strong></p><p>Through this round of market prices, local government-related assets are listed and realized.</p><p>Before 2020, local governments were more engaged in land finance and iron and public infrastructure, but after 2020, the Hefei model became a common practice, and all places learned the Hefei model, including Xi' an, Changsha, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta.</p><p>Hefei model is equity finance, which empowers the local real economy and forms a virtuous circle by actively intervening in the capital market and capital operation.</p><p>Government parent funds have been set up as seed funds in various places to attract<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01315\">Green economy</a>Low-altitude economy, AI technology, robotics and other innovative fields.</p><p>If these new productivity assets can't be realized for a long time, that is, the assets without valuation may even be discounted continuously, which is not conducive to the improvement of the balance sheet.</p><p>On the other hand, if the leading companies exchange stocks for over-the-counter assets and the equity of unlisted companies through mergers and acquisitions (the next step is to boom again in mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations in China's capital market), and fast fish eat slow fish and big fish eat small fish, a virtuous circle will be formed.</p><p><strong>Listed companies gained incremental growth momentum, increased net assets, and were driven by both valuation and profit.</strong></p><p>For local governments, the original cost price of assets is even lower than the cost price (if bought at a high price, it may be revalued downward), and the balance sheet deteriorates.</p><p>But now that it has been acquired by listed companies, the equity and assets held by local governments have suddenly doubled many times, quickly improving the balance sheet. The same is true for enterprises, especially some private enterprises with high asset-liability ratios, which may want to withdraw but have no channels.</p><p>If the leading company in the same industry acquires over-the-counter assets through stock exchange rights (plus a little cash, which may be refinanced), it will quickly form the optimization of competition pattern and survival of the fittest in the industry.</p><p>All of this allows us to see that the capital market is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">New Age</a>Under the leadership of the visible hand of the government, the Group will efficiently promote China's high-quality development.</p><p>Before 2023 and now are two stock markets</p><p>So let's say,<strong>The Chinese stock market before 2023 and the Chinese stock market after 2023 are two stock markets.</strong></p><p>Before 2023, we often talked about learning from the Western model, and we often said that China's stock market is an emerging and transitional market. We felt that we were immature and had to learn from mature Western markets.</p><p>But a qualitative change occurred in 2023. The 2023 Central Financial Work Conference made it very clear that we are essentially different from the Western financial model. We seek profit from righteousness, not profit-seeking.</p><p>Profit from righteousness means looking at the righteousness of the nation, the righteousness of the country, and how to better improve the welfare of the whole people from the long-term perspective of the country.</p><p>Therefore, now China's capital market has a great sense of historical mission. Through its own activity, it forms positive feedback with the real economy and scientific and technological innovation. Everyone makes money, the country develops, and Chinese-style modernization gains internal driving force.</p><p><strong>This is my second point-the visible hand leads this Chinese-style long bull.</strong></p><p><strong>This time, the Chinese-style \"Little White Rabbit Long Bull\" is a long bull that climbs the steps with periodic rapid rise and adjustment. This is China's national condition, because China's capital market lacks (market-oriented rich and powerful short-selling mechanism). And we don't want to use the Western pure market-oriented model to engage in so many short-selling mechanisms.</strong></p><p>Our \"short-selling mechanism\" is: since it is so excited and the valuation is so high, well, serve socialism and the real economy more, and carry out mergers and acquisitions, asset injection, refinancing and IPO.</p><p>This is a short-selling mechanism with Chinese characteristics, which restrains excessive excitement and speculation in the market, and allows the market to continue to serve economic development.</p><p><strong>There is no need to envy, envy or hate the short-term herd effect. Many people are extremely anxious when they rise fast in front, thinking that it will end if they don't go into the bull market.</strong></p><p>I say the bull market is far from over, it may be a 20-year bull market, what's to worry about? Pay more attention to the assets themselves, instead of being afraid of going empty when they rise a little or getting stuck when they fall a little. In fact, I didn't understand this round of long bulls from the essence.</p><p><strong>This is the general trend: first, the dividend of the times, and second, the visible hand is leading and leading.</strong></p><p><strong>This logic applies to both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which is a big logic. Because 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 have been through shock consolidation.</strong></p><p><strong>Beginning in 2024, Hong Kong is also accelerating its integration into the overall development of the motherland with reopen in 2023.</strong></p><p>One of the characteristics of Hong Kong Long Bull: embracing the motherland and empowering the country</p><p>At the second level, let's share the logic of Hong Kong itself.</p><p>What I just talked about is the ultra-long bull market logic suitable for both A shares and Hong Kong stocks. Let's think again about the characteristics and characteristics of Hong Kong itself, which are mainly divided into the following aspects.</p><p>What are the characteristics of this round of market in Hong Kong? It is to embrace the motherland and the overall development of the motherland.</p><p>From the end of 2023, the whole political and economic landscape of Hong Kong can be summarized in four words: from governance to prosperity — from governance and rectification to revitalization and development, the country has begun to actively empower.</p><p>A landmark turning signal is that the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference clearly proposed to \"consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center\".</p><p>We saw that in 2023, there was a bad trend spreading rumors that Hong Kong was already an \"international financial center site\" and no longer an international financial center.</p><p>The Central Financial Work Conference clearly stated the state empowerment, and clearly put forward to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. This is the first point of Hong Kong's characteristics: embracing the motherland and empowering the state.</p><p>Feature 2 of Hong Kong Long Bull: Wealth Flows into Hong Kong Stocks from Safe-haven Assets</p><p>The second point is that from the perspective of capital, Hong Kong stocks, like A shares, will benefit from the tide of reallocation of China's social wealth (especially residents' wealth) from safe-haven assets to stocks and equity assets.</p><p>This tide is on the rise-household savings fell by 1.1 trillion yuan in July this year, after a net increase of 5 trillion yuan in household savings deposits in the second quarter. The wave of social wealth reallocation from safe-haven assets to the stock market has just begun, and it is a virtuous circle.</p><p>As long as it is not a mad cow, as long as it is a climbing market, the allocation rhythm will be relatively gentle.</p><p>One indicator that we need to pay attention to is: from 2022 to the first half of 2023, there will be a small upsurge in the time deposits of Chinese residents. At that time, the three-year fixed deposit interest rate could basically reach about 3%, but now the three-year fixed deposit interest rate may only be about 1.7%.</p><p>What is the ten-year Treasury Bond yield? It's also around 1.7%. The seven-day annualized rate of return of money funds such as Yu' ebao may be around 1%. The predetermined interest rate of life insurance has now dropped to about 2%.</p><p>In times like this,<strong>The cost performance ratio of equity assets is actually better than that of safe-haven assets. Therefore, in this case, both Hong Kong stocks and A shares benefit from the reallocation of Chinese social wealth. Let's not underestimate ourselves.</strong></p><p>We are the second largest economy in the world, so we don't have to pay attention to foreign investment</p><p><strong>Many investors always ask me when foreign capital will come, as if there will be no market if foreign capital doesn't come to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.</strong></p><p><strong>This mentality is still stuck in the mindset of small countries and few people, without realizing that we are already the second largest economy in the world, and that our social wealth is of an astonishing magnitude globally.</strong></p><p>With the accumulation of 40 years of reform and opening up, we are not like Latin America or Southeast Asia. We have not experienced a financial crisis or been seized by Western capital. Our wealth has accumulated, but now it is piled up in safe-haven assets.</p><p><strong>In the next step, under the guidance of the dividend of the times and national policies, and driven by the visible hand, the blocking point of long-term funds entering the market has been opened.</strong></p><p><strong>In addition to long-term funds, national team,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300368\">Huijin</a>In addition to insurance and social security, we think that \"the mouse pulls the wooden shovel-the big head is behind\": the whole social wealth, the movement of residents' savings, and the reconfiguration of social wealth from bank wealth management, money funds, fixed-income assets and even insurance dividend assets to equity assets.</strong></p><p><strong>I think this is a big trend, a big trend of the times. This state is like when everyone went to buy a house in the 00s. At first, I doubted whether it would work, but I was afraid when it rose too much.</strong></p><p>You see, in 2004 and 05, a bunch of people shouted that Shanghai's house prices were bubbling and about to collapse. As a result, from 2004 and 05 to 2020, Shanghai's house prices rose from 4,100 yuan/ping to more than 100,000 yuan/ping in the urban area on average.</p><p>So<strong>It is advisable to take a long view of the landscape and look at the problem from a big historical perspective.</strong></p><p>So we're talking,<strong>The second point is that both Hong Kong stocks and A shares have hope, and I think this is inevitable-they will surely benefit from the reconfiguration of Chinese social wealth. The so-called \"planting a sycamore tree, attracting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600716\">phoenix</a>Come \".</strong></p><p>The Third Feature of Long Bull in Hong Kong Stocks: Ecological Environment Accelerates a Virtuous Circle</p><p>Third, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks is accelerating a virtuous circle, which is different from 2021 to the beginning of 2024.</p><p>In the past few years, due to the switching of old and new kinetic energy, such as the suppression of real estate-related industrial chains by preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, and the regulation of industries such as education and training, before the beginning of 2024, the fundamentals of the whole Hong Kong and listed companies were lifeless. Everyone was pessimistic, and the funds were crowded in the dividend assets of pure safe-haven central enterprises, regarding them as bond dividend assets, such as three barrels of oil, four major banks and three major operators. However, everyone is very pessimistic about dynamic and growth assets.</p><p>At that time, overseas suppressed Chinese assets, and overseas investors had three major expectations, which had been suppressing Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks. As a result, short selling of Hong Kong stocks accounted for an outrageous 35% in August 2023, and short selling of Hong Kong stocks became one of the two most crowded trading strategies in the world.</p><p>At that time, the \"three mountains\" were: First, it was felt that China's economy would have a hard landing due to the drag of real estate, that is, the \"China's economic crisis theory\", which has now been falsified; Second, I feel that China's science and technology are backward, and the United States is stuck in our necks on advanced semiconductors and AI; Third, \"the exit theory of private enterprises\", because at that time, the switching of old and new kinetic energy had an impact on private enterprise real estate and the Internet.</p><p>Therefore, at that time, foreign capital kept withdrawing, feeling that Chinese assets only had transaction value and no investment value. Even now, there are still a few overseas investors who have not changed.</p><p>But what we want to talk about is that since the 2023 Central Financial Work Conference, especially since September 24 and September 26 last year,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08111\">PRC Industries</a>The pattern of development and economic development has been very clear, but many people can't understand it.</p><p>We should look at this problem in the framework of political economy, not purely Western financial thinking.</p><p>Now, from the Politburo meeting in September last year to encourage the development of private enterprises, to the private enterprise symposium on February 17th this year, and then to the Private Economy Promotion Law in May, a series of measures have shown that the \"private enterprise exit theory\" has been overturned and falsified.</p><p>Not only that, but the new consumption, innovative drugs, robots, semiconductors, etc. of the North Stock Exchange, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and even Hong Kong stocks are mostly private capital and private enterprises rising and developing rapidly.</p><p>The so-called \"theory of China's backwardness in science and technology\" has also been thrown into<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Because as mentioned at the beginning, whether it is DeepSeek, AI, robots, military technology or innovative drugs, we have made comprehensive breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level, showing a trend of catching up or even leading in the world.</p><p><strong>The so-called \"hard landing theory of China's economy\" or \"China-Japan model theory\" is also constantly being overturned and falsified.</strong></p><p>Because I just said that the balance sheet of the Chinese central government is very clean, enough to support the bottom without major systemic risks.</p><p>At the same time, China is the largest domestic market in the world-we are already the largest market in the world from the perspective of commodity consumption. The United States is the world's largest market because its consumption of services is much larger than ours.</p><p><strong>But purely in terms of commodity consumption, China is already the world's largest domestic market,</strong>So we are different from Japan back then.</p><p><strong>New kinetic energy has begun to flourish, and China's economy has begun to stabilize, slowly moving towards high-quality development and improvement.</strong></p><p><strong>I said that China's economic structure is definitely not Japan in the 1990s and 2000s.</strong></p><p><strong>What are we more like? I think China is more comparable to the United States before the rise of the Internet wave in the mid-late 1980s to the first half of the 1990s.</strong></p><p>At that time, the domestic demand of the US economy was also hovering at a low level, but emerging business models such as Sam's Shop and Costco began to rise. At that time, Peter Lynch, a famous fund manager, just looked for what his wife and children bought.</p><p><strong>Now, whether it is technology, new consumption, innovative drugs, or many structural bright spots in China, it can be said that it is one after another.</strong></p><p><strong>Therefore, don't pay too much attention to the macro, just stabilize the macro-it will neither collapse nor heat, and it will be moderate towards high-quality development.</strong></p><p>Under such circumstances, the ecological environment of Hong Kong stocks continues to be in a virtuous circle. In particular, high-quality private capital, technology, new consumption and innovative drug companies have gone public in Hong Kong, bringing vitality and leadership to the market.</p><p><strong>Incremental domestic and overseas funds continue to flow into the Hong Kong market, including prophetic and actively managed foreign funds with a correct understanding of China, which began to be deployed in the first half of this year, such as South Korea, Taiwan Province, and Singapore in Southeast Asia in the Asia-Pacific region.</strong></p><p>false<strong>Over time, as the money-making effect of China's long bull continues, money from the Middle East, Europe and even Wall Street will come back, and American hedge funds will also come to make money. This is the virtuous circle of ecological environment.</strong></p><p>The fourth characteristic of Hong Kong stocks: offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by pan-Chinese capital</p><p>Fourth, an important feature of this round of Hong Kong stock bull is that the underlying investment logic has shifted from offshore marketization dominated by foreign capital to onshore marketization dominated by Chinese, Chinese capital and Chinese circle of friends (pan-Chinese capital that agree with China's development concept).</p><p>What is the difference between an offshore market and an onshore market?</p><p>The offshore market is usually a peripheral and non-core layout, so you can see that for a long time, both mainland Chinese investors and foreign investors are like dragons crossing the river-when A shares rise, they will pass when Hong Kong stocks are depressed, and they will come back if they can't make money, without taking Hong Kong stocks as the main battlefield;</p><p>Foreign capital is also a wave when US stocks rise too much. If Hong Kong stocks rise too much, they will lighten their positions or even short them, like poverty alleviation, which is an offshore market.</p><p>Onshore markets are different.</p><p>The onshore market has a long-term judgment and embrace of high-quality companies. You look at the most typical U.S. stocks-the onshore market such as the bond market,<strong>Local funds are the needle and pillar of the sea. If good assets fall too much, there will be funds based on the medium-and long-term layout. Unlike the offshore market, the more the short selling force falls, the more fierce it will be and the fall will be endless.</strong></p><p>We think<strong>This time, the change of investment logic in Hong Kong stock market is to shift from offshore market to onshore market.</strong></p><p><strong>You can see that investment style has also changed</strong>: It turns out that Deep Value is a premium around certainty, so dividend-type Deep Value assets have a great chance to make money when they bounce up; Now the onshore market investing style is more diversified.</p><p>In addition to value stocks (which support the upward movement of the hub as a shield, especially the continuous revaluation of dividend assets, traditional industry leaders and core assets), growth assets represented by technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs will give a growth premium- -High growth gives high valuation.</p><p>This is the charm of the onshore market: domestic computing power can be valued hundreds of times in A shares, and in US stocks, you can see that technology, innovation and even obviously bad rare earth stocks are also market dream rate valuations.</p><p><strong>It's not that mature market valuations are necessarily low</strong>In recent years, US stocks have actually given growth stocks a valuation premium.</p><p><strong>Therefore, the onshore market is characterized by more diversified styles, both offensive and defensive</strong>: There are opportunities for value stocks and opportunities for growth stocks, and growth stocks will give a premium based on growth.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q\">投资作业本Pro</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Wl6i8VXDqZpFbKkL6XE82Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2565589615","content_text":"兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东从“时代红利”和“国家有形之手引导”两个方面，阐述了A股与港股将迎来二十年超级牛市的逻辑，并进一步从香港市场的四个特点出发，解释了港股长牛的内在原因。要点如下：1、中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。2、比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用，当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。3、大家千万不要还想（中国这轮牛市）疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。会吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。4、我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”。小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛。5、（中国）这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产，繁荣二十多年的地产长牛：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。6、这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。7、2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。8、短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。9、香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。第三点，港股生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟21年到24年年初是不一样的。第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是港股的底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化转向中国泛中资，中国和中国的朋友圈，或者认同中国发展理念的这种泛中资主导的在岸市场化。10、很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。11、中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。12、中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。13、假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。A股港股可能走出二十年超级长牛问：忆东总，先回顾一下八月港股市场的一个表现。包括你也曾提到说港股将走出超级长牛，请问这一判断的主要依据是什么呢？张忆东：我想从两个维度来跟大家分享吧。首先我们来说一说中国权益资产的一个超级长牛，包括A股和港股，可能都会走出一个长达二十多年的超级长牛。这是一个重要的宏观叙事，最关键的宏观叙事其实是我们的经济增长方式。中国经济增长方式的转变，带来了中国权益资产的黄金发展期。从90年代一直到2023年，总体来看，那是中国旧动能的扩张期。中国旧动能是什么呢？是一种债务扩张型的、相对粗放的经济增长方式。从1998年开始，房地产大时代开启。房地产的持续扩张带来了中国融资的黄金时代，对应的是城镇化、工业化的快速发展。但到2020年左右，中国整体资产负债表扩张后，开始出现一些发展困惑，也就是2020年开始的新旧动能转换阵痛期悄然来临。以房地产为代表的经济增长动能正在显著放缓。债务扩张型的经济增长方式正在越来越低效。中国的三张资产负债表——居民部门、企业部门和政府部门，经过过去二三十年的扩张，都出现了债务率偏高的状态。最关键的是，每增加一分债务，对GDP的拉动效应越来越弱。这个时候，中国经济要转向高质量发展，要转型为科技创新驱动型国家，就需要关注直接融资，要利用资本市场的赋能。我们简单回顾一下债务率问题。中国最健康的一张资产负债表是中央政府的资产负债表。截至2024年底，中国国债余额只有34.5万亿人民币，占GDP的比例约26%。同期美国联邦政府的债务率高达36万亿美元，占GDP的比例约126.8%，比我们高了约100个百分点。我们的隐忧在地方债务。不考虑隐性债务的情况下，根据社科院数据，狭义的地方政府债务率可能高达40%左右。IMF的计算可能更高。政府债务率我们是有扩张空间的，非不能也，实不为也。中国经济没有系统性风险，需要转变经济发展方式我们知道政府可以hold住底，中国经济没有硬着陆或系统性风险。但现在的发展问题是，我们究竟继续走债务扩张的路，还是换条路径？如果要走债务扩张之路，我们还要看其他两张表——企业部门和居民部门的资产负债表。中国居民部门的资产负债表曾经非常健康，中国人有储蓄习惯。但遗憾的是，从08年特别是2016年后，中国居民部门的资产负债表也在快速扩张。08年居民部门债务占GDP比率不到20%，约17%-18%。但到24年，居民部门债务率已接近60%，而美国也不过70%左右。居民部门债务扩张空间非常有限，有天花板。因为我们的民族性是以节俭为美德，是内敛型的民族。我们的居民部门债务率很难比美国更高。企业部门的债务率也持续居高不下。截至去年24年三季度，中国企业部门债务率高达142%，这还不包括地方城投平台公司，如果加上可能更高。反观美国，企业部门债务率只有74%左右。这些数据让我们知道中国经济发展模式转变势在必行。所以大家不要有幻想。现在有些海外经济学家老出歪招，抱怨中国政府为什么不扩张，为什么不学美国模式大放水。不是这么回事，中国经济没有系统性风险，为什么不好好提升经济增长效率？中国经济的问题是转变发展模式。转变发展模式的侧重点在哪儿？就像资产分类表，过去30年我们的重点是债务驱动GDP增长。但靠铁公基、靠房地产这种旧动能，效率越来越低了。因为基数已经很高，它更多是兜底的作用。保证经济可持续性。高质量发展、有效率的发展一定要换增长方式。未来20年资本市场作用是盘活资产现在很简单，看资产负债表不能只看资产，还要看负债。未来20年甚至更长时间，资本市场的作用就是盘活资产。通过盘活资产、提升效率，为中国的科技创新、新消费以及传统成熟行业的核心资产进行全球扩张、成为最有竞争力的公司而努力。所以未来的资本市场，就像过去二三十年在债务扩张时期房地产的作用一样。在债务扩张时期，房地产是牵一发而动全身的枢纽，是中国货币扩张、信用创造的核心渠道。现在高质量发展时代要盘活资产，资本市场就起到了牵一发而动全身的作用。它通过盘活企业资产负债表、居民资产负债表，实现社会财富的优化配置。过去40年改革开放积累的社会财富，现在基本上堆积在一些低效或避险资产里。需要通过资本市场把这些财富投入到更高效的领域，如硬科技、高科技和新消费等新生产力上面，驱动资本市场和实体经济高质量发展的良性循环。为什么是二三十年长牛？这样理解就能知道，不单是港股，A股也会走出超级长牛。长牛是小目标，可能就是二三十年。为什幺二三十年刚好？我们知道一个重要事件：到本世纪中叶，中国要完成中国式现代化。中国式现代化分两步走：第一步从2020年到2035年——注意2020年这个时间节点，是中国新旧动能开始转换的年份，我们开始感受旧动能退坡的痛，新动能尚未脱颖而出。但现在不一样了，随着今年年初DeepSeek、六代机、创新药、机器人等方面科技全面提升，特别是5月7日印巴冲突后到9月3日阅兵式展现的中国军工科技崛起甚至全球领先，让我们看到新动能开始如雨后春笋般兴起。中国式现代化已经在路上，我们已经走出了新旧动能切换的震动期，经济开始企稳。从2020年到2035年是中国式现代化的第一步，基本实现社会主义现代化。在经济、科技、文化、生态等各领域取得重大进展，特别是要跻身创新型国家前列。要知道，在90年代到2020年的二三十年经济发展过程中，主要是债务扩张驱动模式。而且我们当时是从农业社会为主的经济体走向工业化、城镇化大型经济体的过程。之后中国要从大型经济体走向强国，要能够自主创新，成为创新型国家前列。这一切让我们看到这是时代红利，要拥抱这个红利。因为无论是股市还是楼市，都只是载体，时势造英雄。现在中国经济发展模式刚好让资本市场起到最重要、牵一发而动全身的枢纽作用。它能够盘活社会财富，盘活资产负债表资产端，发挥效率。简单举个例子，居民财富一半左右在房地产上，基本上被套住了。但房地产在一二线城市核心区域的租金回报率已经开始超过无风险收益率，所以没必要惊慌失措抛售。但房地产的黄金时代已经过去，这毫无疑问。所以居民财富如果在房地产上，可以再等等，但如果房子多，可以进一步盘活，从低效、僵持状态通过资本市场发挥效率。更加保守的是，截至今年6月底，中国居民储蓄存款高达162万亿，加上30多万亿银行理财，大量保险、社保、养老金等固收类资产里的社会财富，简单算算肯定超过200多万亿。这200多万亿怎么盘活？居民财富除了房地产（约占社会财富250万亿左右大数），另外一半也是200多万亿大数。这块资产流动性更高，应该积极布局到A股和港股，通过资本市场发挥更高效率、更好资源配置效率，进而形成社会财富的财富效应。让企业家不再躺平，特别是民营企业家不再总考虑全球配置、资金外流，而是更积极投身中国新质生产力大潮。“寒王”被质疑太贵？上涨是时代造就的，要用发展的眼光看问题比如很多人质疑国产算力所谓的“寒王们”太贵、有泡沫。我们要以发展眼光看问题。它的标杆作用好比改革开放初期的“傻子瓜子”，或者一线城市房价持续飙升对整个房地产的拉动作用。当时的房地产对中国经济方方面面起到了推动作用。上涨是时代造就的，而不是用静态的老式EPS、短期PE来算的。应该从社会发展角度看，这次中国的北交所、科创板、主板中的科技型公司，特别是与AI浪潮对应的好公司，正在经历戴维斯双击，业绩和估值都向上走。但我并不是建议大家无脑追高，只是说这个现象有时代意义。就像当年00年代上海房子，老觉得贵，老说租金回报率与收入不匹配。现在收入匹配了，租金回报率高了，大家反而不买了。这其实是时代浪潮，要用发展眼光看问题。资本市场的造富效应、财富效应吸引眼球，让企业家愿意进行风险投资、做天使投资人，投入半导体、机器人、创新药、低空经济、AI等科技领域，形成星星之火可以燎原，资本市场帮助社会财富优化资源配置。老百姓通过参与资本市场（比如今年买基金基本都跑赢指数），财富改善后，风险偏好提升，边际消费倾向也提升。这就是我看超级长牛的原因，这个超级长牛叫做时势造英雄。现在中国式现代化迈向本世纪中叶，未来二十多年发展就是高质量发展，通过资本市场优化资源配置，盘活政府、居民、企业资产负债表。用资产端扩张化解债务忧虑，资产扩张了，资产负债率自然就下来了，对负债的恐慌才会彻底有效下降。这是我讲的第一点——时代红利。大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛第二点，这次和以前最大不同是国家力量、有形之手在引领。我们用数据来看，2023年10月底召开中央金融工作会议，明确提出要坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，本质上不同于西方金融模式。西方金融模式是市场化、纯粹绝对的市场化，说白了就是利益导向。美国这么多年来，低效率的造船、钢铁、纺织服装等都转移到其他国家去了。美国想要制造业回流非常难，最多回流一些高科技领域的先进制造业，但低效率、不赚钱的制造业回不去。这就是美国资本市场的特征，就是利益导向。中国式发展模式不同。特别是2022年二十大后，我们更强调党的领导、党领导一切、党建引领。这个大背景下，中国特色金融发展之路就是政治性、人民性、功能性，就是有形之手在引领。对资本市场要求是协调、统筹高效市场和有为政府的关系，吸取2014-2015年疯牛教训——杠杆牛最终一地鸡毛，国家没有通过资本市场对实体经济形成正反馈，反而要拿出大量资源救市，这是沉痛教训。所以大家千万不要还想疯牛、快牛，不可能，一定是长牛。这个长牛走法像1998年到2020年的房地产：走快了、热度高了，政策调控就压一压；冷了，政策就托一托，如此震荡前行。我把这次有形之手主导下的中国股市（A股和港股）长牛形象比喻为“小白兔式长牛”，借鉴龟兔赛跑中乌龟和小白兔的运行方式。美国的长牛是乌龟式慢牛，因为其市场化、唯利是图，有强大丰富的做空机制、立体交易机制，涨快了就有人做空赚钱。中国做空机制相对不健全，整体还要呵护中小投资者利益。中国特色背景下，要因地制宜，不要盲目抄别人，不然就变成“淮南为橘淮北为枳”的笑话。适合国情的发展模式才是真正有效的。所以我们说现在中国大背景强调中国特色金融发展之路，与其他方面党引领中国式现代化一脉相承。这种情况下理解中国这轮长牛，可以借鉴当年房地产繁荣二十多年的长牛。但这个长牛不是乌龟式慢牛，而是“小白兔式长牛”：小白兔在龟兔赛跑中猛冲、快速跑，然后睡一觉调整，睡醒精神抖擞再冲，再睡再冲。我们的资本市场由于缺乏市场化的丰富做空机制，一旦情绪来了，一哄而上，羊群效应非常强。再加上现在有高频量化主体，影响力越来越大，所以走得很快。走得快没问题，但会有调控，不外乎“水多了加面，面多了加水”。现在良性循环，长线资金入市，“储蓄搬家”已经方兴未艾（刚开始），现在还比较健康。整体行情从六月份以来有点加速。加速不要紧，加速后未来IPO节奏放开、再融资节奏放开一定会发生，这是规则演绎。因为这轮长牛不是为了少数投机分子、有钱资本家割国家韭菜，而是通过长牛盘活社会财富，帮助改善地方政府、企业、居民的资产负债表。通过这轮行情，地方政府相关资产上市变现。2020年前地方政府更多是土地财政、搞铁公基，但2020年后合肥模式蔚然成风，各地学合肥模式，包括西安、长沙、珠三角、长三角。合肥模式就是股权财政，通过积极介入资本市场、资本运作，给本地实体经济赋能，形成良性循环。各地纷纷设立政府母基金作为种子基金，吸引绿色经济、低空经济、AI科技、机器人等创新领域。如果这些新生产力资产迟迟不能变现，就是没有估值的资产，甚至可能不断打折，不利于资产负债表改善。反过来说，如果通过并购重组（下一步中国资本市场并购重组重新蓬勃发展），通过快鱼吃慢鱼、大鱼吃小鱼，龙头公司用股票换场外资产、未上市公司股权，就形成良性循环。上市公司获得增量增长动能，净资产提升，估值和盈利双驱动。对地方政府而言，资产原来成本价甚至低于成本价（如果高位买可能被向下重估），资产负债表恶化。但现在被上市公司收购，地方政府掌握的股权、资产一下子翻好多倍，快速改善资产负债表。对企业也是如此，特别是有些民营企业资产负债率高，可能想退出但没有渠道。如果同行业龙头公司通过股票换股权（加上一点现金，现金可能通过再融资），收购场外资产，就快速形成行业内竞争格局优化、优胜劣汰。这些都让我们看到资本市场在新时代、政府有形之手引领下，高效推动中国高质量发展。2023年之前和现在是两个股市所以我们来说，2023年之前的中国股市和2023年之后的中国股市是两个股市。2023年之前我们动辄讲学习西方模式，动辄讲中国股市是新兴加转轨市场，觉得自己不成熟，要向西方成熟市场学习。但2023年发生质的变化。2023年中央金融工作会议讲得很清楚，我们本质上不同于西方金融模式，我们是以义取利，而不是唯利是图。以义取利就是看民族大义、国家大义，看国家长期角度如何更好提升全民福利。所以现在中国资本市场有伟大的历史使命感，通过自身活跃与实体经济形成正反馈，与科技创新形成正反馈，大家赚钱，国家发展，中国式现代化获得内驱力。这是我讲的第二点——有形之手引领这次中国式长牛。这次中国式“小白兔长牛”是伴随阶段性快涨和调整、拾级而上的长牛。这就是中国国情，因为中国资本市场缺乏（市场化的丰富强大的做空机制）。而且我们也不想用西方纯粹市场化模式搞那么多做空机制。我们的“做空机制”就是：既然那么亢奋、估值那么高，好，多一点为社会主义服务、为实体经济服务，进行并购重组、资产注入、再融资和IPO。这是中国特色的做空机制，抑制行情过度亢奋、过度投机，让行情持续为经济发展服务。短期的羊群效应不用羡慕嫉妒恨。很多人前面涨得快就焦急得不得了，觉得再不进去牛市就结束了。我说牛市远没有结束，可能是20年的牛市，有什么好担心？要更多关注资产本身，而不是涨一点怕踏空、跌一点怕套牢。其实是没有从本质理解这轮长牛。这是讲的大趋势：一是时代红利，第二是有形之手在主导和引领。这个逻辑同时适用于A股和港股，是个大逻辑。因为2019年、2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年一直经过震荡整理。从2024年开始，香港也在随着2023年reopen（疫情阴影解除），加速融入祖国发展大局。香港长牛特色之一：拥抱祖国、国家赋能第二个层面我们再分享一下香港本身的逻辑。刚才讲的是适合A股和港股两者共同的超长牛市逻辑。我们再想一想香港本身的特点和特色，主要分以下几个方面。香港这轮行情的特色在哪儿呢？就是拥抱祖国、拥抱祖国发展大局。从2023年年底开始，香港整个政治经济面貌可以用四个字概括：由治及兴——从治理整治到振兴发展，国家开始积极赋能。一个标志性的转折信号是2023年中央金融工作会议明确提出要“巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位”。我们看到2023年曾有一股歪风造谣说香港已经是“国际金融中心遗址”，已经不是国际金融中心了。中央金融工作会议明确表态国家赋能，明确提出巩固和提升香港国际金融中心地位，这是香港特色的第一点：拥抱祖国，国家赋能。香港长牛特色之二：财富从避险资产流入港股第二点是从资金面角度来说，港股和A股一样都将受益于中国社会财富（特别是居民财富）从避险资产向股票、向权益资产再配置的大潮。这个大潮方兴未艾——今年7月份居民储蓄当月减少了1.1万亿，而在此之前二季度居民储蓄存款净增加了5万亿人民币。整个社会财富从避险资产向股市再配置的浪潮刚刚开始，而且是个良性循环。只要不是疯牛，只要是一个拾级而上的行情，配置节奏也会比较平缓。我们需要关注的一个指标是：2022年到2023年上半年，我国居民定期存款出现一个小高潮。那时三年期定存利率基本可以达到3%左右，而现在三年期定存利率可能只有1.7%左右。十年期国债收益率是多少呢？也是1.7%左右。余额宝等货币基金的七天年化收益率可能在1%左右。保险寿险的预定利率现在也都降到了2%左右。在这样的时代，权益资产的性价比其实比避险资产更好。所以这种情况下，港股和A股都受益于中国社会财富的再配置。我们不要妄自菲薄。我们已是世界第二大经济体，不用总关注外资很多投资者老是问我外资什么时候来，好像外资不来A股港股就没有行情一样。这种心态还停留在小国寡民的思维模式中，根本没有意识到我们已经是世界第二大经济体，我们的社会财富在全球都是一个惊人的量级。改革开放40年的积累，我们不像拉美，也不像东南亚，我们没有经历过金融危机，没有被西方资本强取豪夺，我们的财富积累下来了，只是现在都堆积在避险资产里。下一步，在时代红利和国家政策引领下，在有形之手的推动下，长线资金入市的堵点已经打通了。后续除了长线资金、国家队、汇金、保险社保之外，我们认为“老鼠拉木锨——大头在后头”：整个社会财富、居民储蓄搬家，以及社会财富从银行理财、货币基金、固收类资产、甚至保险分红型资产，向权益资产再配置。我认为这是一个大趋势，是时代大趋势。这个状态就像00年代大家去买房子一样，刚开始还怀疑行不行，涨多了又害怕。你看04、05年就有一堆人喊上海房价有泡沫、要崩盘，结果从04、05年到2020年，上海房价平均从4100元/平涨到市区10万/平以上。所以风物长宜放眼量，要有大的历史视角来看问题。所以我们讲，第二点就是港股和A股都有希望，而且我认为这是必然的——必将受益于中国社会财富的再配置。所谓“栽下梧桐树，引得凤凰来”。港股长牛特色之三：生态环境加速良性循环第三个方面，港股的生态环境在加速良性循环，这跟2021年到2024年年初是不一样的。过去几年，由于新旧动能切换，比如香港地产链、防止资本无序扩张对房地产相关产业链的压制，以及教培等行业调控，在2024年年初之前，整个香港的基本面和上市公司基本面毫无生气，大家比较悲观，资金都拥挤在纯粹的避险型央企红利资产上，把它当做债券类的红利资产，比如三桶油、四大行、三大运营商等。但有活力、有成长性的资产，大家非常悲观。那时海外压制中国资产，海外投资者有三大预期，一直压制着中国资产特别是港股，导致2023年8月份港股卖空占比达到离谱的35%左右，做空港股成为全球最拥挤的两大交易策略之一。当时的“三座大山”是：第一，觉得中国经济受房地产拖累会出现硬着陆，即“中国经济危机论”，现已被证伪；第二，觉得中国科技落后，美国在先进半导体和AI上卡我们脖子；第三，“民企退场论”，因为当时新旧动能切换对民企地产、互联网等有影响。所以当时外资不断撤离，觉得中国资产只有交易价值，没有投资价值，甚至现在仍有少数海外投资者没转变过来。但我们要讲的是，从2023年中央金融工作会议之后，特别是去年9月24日和9月26日以来，中国产业发展和经济发展格局已经非常明确，只是很多人不能理解。我们要用政治经济学框架，而不是纯粹西方金融思维来看这个问题。现在看，从去年9月政治局会议鼓励民营企业发展，到今年2月17日民营企业座谈会，再到5月份《民营经济促进法》等，一系列举措都表明“民企退场论”被推翻、被证伪。不仅如此，北交所、科创板甚至港股的新消费、创新药、机器人、半导体等，大多都是民营资本、民营企业在崛起和快速发展。所谓“中国科技落后论”也被丢到太平洋，因为正如开头所讲，无论是DeepSeek、AI、机器人、军工科技还是创新药，我们在科技层面全面突破，在全球呈现追赶甚至领先的趋势。所谓“中国经济硬着陆论”或“中国日本模式论”也在不断被推翻、被证伪。因为我刚才讲了中国中央政府资产负债表非常干净，足以托底不出现大的系统性风险。同时，中国是全球最大的内需市场——从商品消费角度，我们已是全球最大市场。美国之所以是全球最大市场，是因为它的服务消费比我们大得多。但纯粹从商品消费看，中国已是世界最大内需市场，所以我们跟当年的日本不一样。新动能已开始蓬勃发展，中国经济开始企稳，开始缓慢走向高质量发展和改善的过程。我说中国经济格局绝对不是90年代、00年代的日本。我们更像什么？我认为中国更可比的是80年代中后期到90年代上半期互联网浪潮兴起前的美国。当时美国经济内需也在低位徘徊，但像山姆店、Costco等新兴商业模式开始崛起，当时著名基金经理彼得·林奇就是看老婆孩子买什么就找什么股票。中国现在无论是科技、新消费、创新药，还是很多结构性亮点，可说是此起彼伏。所以不用太在意宏观，宏观稳住就好——既不会崩也不会热，是温和走向高质量发展。这种情况下，港股生态环境持续良性循环，特别是优质民营资本、科技、新消费、创新药企业纷纷到香港上市，给市场带来生机和引领。境内外增量资金持续流入香港市场，包括对中国理解正确的先知先觉主动管理型外资，从今年上半年开始布局，如亚太区的韩国、中国台湾、东南亚新加坡等。假以时日，随着中国长牛赚钱效应持续，中东、欧洲的钱甚至华尔街都会回来，美国对冲基金也会来赚钱。这就是生态环境的良性循环。港股长牛特色之四：外资主导离岸市场化转向泛中资主导的在岸市场化第四点，这轮港股长牛的一个重要特色是底层投资逻辑从外资主导的离岸市场化，转向中国方、中资及中国朋友圈（认同中国发展理念的泛中资）主导的在岸市场化。离岸市场和在岸市场有什么区别？离岸市场通常是外围的、非核心布局的，所以你看较长时间里，无论是中国内地投资者还是外资，都像过江龙一样——A股涨了看港股是洼地就过去，赚不到钱又回来，没把港股当主战场；外资也是美股涨多了看港股是洼地就冲一波，涨多了就减仓甚至做空，像是扶贫，是离岸市场。在岸市场不一样。在岸市场对优质公司有长期判断和拥抱，你看美股最典型——在岸市场如债券市场，本土资金是定海神针和支柱，好资产跌多了就有资金立足中长期布局，不像离岸市场越跌做空力量越凶、跌无止境。我们认为这次港股市场投资逻辑的转变，就是从离岸市场转向在岸市场。可以看到投资风格也发生变化：原来是以深度价值（Deep Value）围绕确定性给溢价，所以红利型深度价值资产弹起来赚钱机会也大；现在在岸市场投资风格更加多元化。除了价值股（作为盾牌支撑中枢上移，特别是红利资产、传统行业龙头和核心资产持续价值重估）之外，以科技、新消费、创新药为代表的成长性资产会给予成长溢价——高增长给高估值。这就是在岸市场的魅力：国产算力在A股可以出现几百倍估值，在美股你看科技、创新甚至明显很烂的稀土股票也是市梦率估值。并不是成熟市场估值就一定低，美股这几年其实给成长股估值溢价。所以在岸市场的特征是风格更加多元化、攻守兼备：有价值股机会，也有成长股机会，而成长股会基于成长性给溢价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSCEI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":536809570743000,"gmtCreate":1772078700735,"gmtModify":1772078702035,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/FUT/HSImain\">$恆生指數主連 2603(HSImain)$&nbsp;</a> 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2603(HSImain)$ ▼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/536809197016616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":532235886765424,"gmtCreate":1770959527395,"gmtModify":1770959529939,"author":{"id":"4153290226491872","authorId":"4153290226491872","name":"chs2019","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4153290226491872","idStr":"4153290226491872"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 80.8","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/03690\">$美團-W(03690)$&nbsp;</a> 80.8","text":"$美團-W(03690)$ 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