Tesla is heading into Q4 delivery results with expectations already reset lower, and that matters more than the headline number. π The Hard Numbers (What the Market Is Pricing In) Q4 2025 consensus deliveries (median): ~420,400 vehicles Mean estimate: ~422,850 vehicles This implies year-on-year delivery decline for the second consecutive year Tesla shares are already ~8β10% off recent highs, suggesting expectations are no longer euphoric In other words, this is not a blowout expectations quarterβbut it may not need to be. π§ Why a Miss May Not Break the Stock Tesla is no longer traded purely as an auto company. Investors are increasingly focused on: Autonomy and robotaxi optionality AI compute and inference scale Optimus and long-cycle robotics monetization Margin stabilization vs deli