Bitcoin is back above the 200-week MA — historically the inflection point in every major bear market (2015, 2019, 2022). In 2019, the bottom-to-recovery rally was nearly 2x in two months.

institutional traders sold long-dated 250putsfor250putsfor3.74M, signaling long-term bullishness with a breakeven at 220.05.Oraclefell4.05220.05.Oraclefell4.05177.50 puts for $1.85M as a hedge or bearish bet, while others sold longer-dated puts to collect premium. Overall, near-term caution contrasted with medium-to-long-term neutral-to-bullish positioning.

The U.S. and Iran are reportedly close to signing a memorandum to end the war, with Trump saying the chances of a deal are “very high.” Brent crude fell -7.83% in a single day to $101, while WTI dropped -7.03% to $95. The inflation narrative is starting to loosen, the U.S. dollar index fell -0.43%, and risk assets benefited.

AI has moved from training to inference + agentic AI. That shift benefits more than just GPUs. $AMD$ Q1 Data Center: $5.8B (+48% YoY). Q2 guidance: $11.2B revenue (+46% YoY). Lisa Su was explicit: inference and agentic AI demand for high-performance CPUs and accelerators is "accelerating." EPYC keeps taking share. MI455X ramp starts in 2H.

International oil prices fell. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for June delivery fell $4.15 to settle at $102.27 per barrel, a drop of 3.9%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery on the London ICE Futures Exchange fell $4.57 to settle at $109.87 per barrel, a drop of 3.99%.

Customer deposits rose 9% YoY to S$629.9B, with more than two-thirds in CASA. CEO Tan Su Shan upgraded full-year deposit growth guidance to "high to higher single-digit." Low-cost CASA inflows are sticky — this is a structural, not cyclical, tailwind.

The Momentum factor is up +25% YTD, with hedge fund Momentum net exposure near 5-year highs. The divergence is extreme: semiconductors +30% since the Iran War (Feb 28), but equal-weight S&P -1%, Consumer Staples -5%, Health Care -9%.

Google Cloud's acceleration was the biggest surprise of the night: +63.4% from +48% last quarter, Cloud op margin cracking 30% for the first time. Management's exact words: "If we had more compute, cloud revenue would have been higher."

$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ released its earnings last night. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their price target from $385 to $700 on the same day — an 82% increase within three hours, with normalized EPS estimates revised from $17.50 to $32.00.

$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ released its earnings last night. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their price target from $385 to $700 on the same day — an 82% increase within three hours, with normalized EPS estimates revised from $17.50 to $32.00.

As of the evening trading session on April 29, 2026, Eastern Time, the crude oil and gold futures markets showed a pronounced divergence. The Light-Sweet Crude Oil (CLmain) front-month contract surged significantly, closing above the $106 level, with expanded intraday trading range and active volume; meanwhile, gold (GCmain) front-month contract retraced, closing near $4,588.8 per ounce, despite hitting an intraday high of $4,594.1 during the session, and finishing lower than the prior settlement.

On April 27, the board of directors approved a 5% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.22 per share, which will be distributed on June 15, 2026, to all shareholders of record across all share classes.

After the DOJ dropped its investigation into Powell, OIS rates fell, as the market interpreted Warsh’s potential appointment as implying more room for rate cuts this year. But Goldman’s Jan Hatzius team directly stated: “We are less confident in this.” Warsh and Powell share very similar core views on inflation and rate policy.

CGS International forecasts a −3 bps sequential NIM decline, driven by falling SORA and HIBOR. 3-month SORA dropped sharply since the start of the year. DBS had already guided for SORA at 1.25% and two Fed rate cuts in 2026 — any rate path deviation will move guidance.

The gap looks small, but the real “powder keg” is Q4 capex guidance. Citi expects $40B capex guidance, while street consensus is only $16B — a $24B gap. The market is already concerned about Microsoft’s AI spending. If this additional capex is not matched by accelerating Azure growth, the market will punish the stock immediately.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range.

Intel delivered far stronger-than-expected sales guidance. A year ago, the market was asking if Intel could survive. Now, it’s asking whether Intel has enough capacity. The company stated that June-quarter revenue is expected at $13.8B–$14.8B, versus analyst expectations of $13B.

Normal, everything is good

Google has introduced TPU 8t (training) and TPU 8i (inference): splitting training and inference for the first time TPU 8t: 2.8x performance at the same cost, +124% performance per watt; Supports up to 9,600 chips in a supercomputing cluster TPU 8i: +80% performance; 384MB on-chip SRAM (3x previous generation); Optimized for low-latency multi-agent inference

On Monday, $Apple(AAPL)$ officially announced that Tim Cook will step down as CEO effective September 1 this year and transition to the role of Executive Chairman. His successor will be John Ternus, Apple’s current Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering. This is Apple’s first CEO transition since 2011, and the timing—right before earnings season—makes it especially intriguing.