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Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!

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21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rate swaps, and a rise in interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExperience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rate swaps, and a rise in interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916858935,"gmtCreate":1664578154527,"gmtModify":1676537478082,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916858935","repostId":"2271377796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916329201,"gmtCreate":1664514112903,"gmtModify":1676537469765,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916329201","repostId":"1143870144","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143870144","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664502256,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143870144?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"One day worth shrinks by 10 billion, Li Ka-shing recovers 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143870144","media":"野马财经","summary":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its value shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Li Ka-shing's family business, which is heavily positioned in the European market, has been hit hard by the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the largest tax cut policy in 50 years, which led to the \"three kills\" of stocks and bonds in the UK. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-Time Index shows,<b>On September 26th, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), compared with $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan) the day before, and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp shrink in value,<b>On September 28th, Cheung Kong Group (1113.HK) announced that it would sell its property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Sino-Suisse, a Singapore financial institution, for HK$20.766 billion (about 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold part of the luxury residential project at No.21 Bo Lao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK$2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two were HK$1.038 billion each, and the last three were HK$2.077 billion each. In addition, the purchaser is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>According to Cheung Kong Group, the sale will allow the company to realise its investment in the development project and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction,<b>The Company expects the gain from the disposal to be approximately HK$6.3 billion (approximately HK$5.779 billion)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, making a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group acquired the Borough Road site for HK$11.65 billion at a floor price of HK$26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China.</b></p><p>The site is located in the luxury residential area of the West Mid-Levels in Hong Kong, China, with an area of approximately 10,500 square meters and a buildable GFA of approximately 40,400 square meters. It was once described as a \"first-class beautiful site\" by Mr. Li, Chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially become the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: No. 21 Bo Lao Road, Cheung Kong Public Account</p><p><b>In public reports, the latest transaction of No.21 Bo Lao Road was in June this year, with two sets sold, totaling nearly HK$ 400 million (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bo Lao Road Community was sold, with a price of 270 million yuan, and an area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some people in the industry believe that the long-term development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's long-term practice system, which also makes his company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's hoarding of land for profit, this statement has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, Economic Observer Network reported that Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding Li Ka-shing's land hoarding behavior,<b>China Times once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have been developed by \"snail-style\" methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the face of outside doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is really misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal commercial behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again realized a profit of HK$6.3 billion by \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can effectively lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bo Lao Road to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a premium luxury property in the most prized area of Hong Kong, China, and looking around today's market, it is difficult to find a comparable quality property with a high return on investment value, and the potential for appreciation of projects should be satisfactory when Hong Kong is fully opened.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been crowned by the industry as good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons' equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped making new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group spent HK$17.38 billion through various channels to purchase 4 parcels of land in Hong Kong, China, increasing the gross floor area available for development by approximately 154,600 square metres.</b></p><p>In May this year, Li Ka-shing appeared again in the mainland soil auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue plot in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, owned by Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reaches 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, of which the market value of properties available for development is 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communication, real estate, electric power, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky Energy, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\".</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its London office building for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). The expected gain of Cheung Kong from the disposal is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the sale of British Power Company of 15 billion pounds (about 116.813 billion yuan), but the whole sale plan finally collapsed due to the last-minute price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Financial Report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. According to the annual report, in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group was HK$62.094 billion, of which property was the main revenue, property sales reached HK$37.76 billion, property leasing amounted to HK$6.543 billion, including hotel and serviced suite business amounted to HK$2.691 billion, property and project management amounted to HK$816 million, and British pub business amounted to HK$14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales and property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland accounted for a relatively large proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the property sales in Hong Kong, the PRC amounted to HK$15,724 million, the property sales in the Mainland amounted to HK$21,722 million and the property sales in overseas amounted to HK$352 million. For property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK$4,352 million, Mainland China was HK$571 million and overseas was HK$738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, China, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted much attention from the market. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing wants to flee Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometowns of the Group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>\"Pick up leaks\" Evergrande Center still has a chance?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to be able to \"hoard land\" for profit is to bargain-hunting and \"pick up leaks\". In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to bargain for China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333.HK) sold China Evergrande Centre for the second time by bidding, with the price reduced from HK$10.5 billion to HK$9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK$15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. Subsequently, after approaching Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK$10.5 billion, but the transaction did not happen in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Can Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total gross floor area of approximately 32,100 square meters located in the centre of Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. Its predecessor was Mass Tower.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande bought it from Chinese Land (0127.HK) for HK$12.5 billion, setting a record for commercial building sales in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the resale of China Evergrande Centre, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender, which was valued at approximately HK$9 billion at the time. In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to bargain-hunting and \"pick up leaks\".</p><p><b>However, on September 13th, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by the receiver appointed by CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of industry insiders quoted by the media, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one has ever taken over, so the lender finally decided to take over the asset.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as an exclusive agent, and the bid deadline was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is over HK$8 billion, which is about 40% discount to Evergrande's purchase of HK$12.5 billion. The property has attracted enquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that with reference to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK$50,000, and the total price is about HK$32.38 billion; Another site at 3 Central Waterfront, which was acquired in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK$31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK$50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the sale again now, Evergrande Center has long changed from a proud commercial landmark of Evergrande Group to a replacement chip.<b>Nowadays, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to bargain-hunting.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He does not want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he has not received many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589532854679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One day worth shrinks by 10 billion, Li Ka-shing recovers 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne day worth shrinks by 10 billion, Li Ka-shing recovers 6 billion losses by \"hoarding land\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">野马财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>After its value shrank by tens of billions, Cheung Kong Group, a subsidiary of Li Ka-shing family, once again relied on \"hoarding land\" to make profits.</b>Li Ka-shing's family business, which is heavily positioned in the European market, has been hit hard by the sharp depreciation of the pound and euro.</p><p>On September 23rd, the British government launched the largest tax cut policy in 50 years, which led to the \"three kills\" of stocks and bonds in the UK. The pound once fell below the 1.04 mark against the US dollar, and there was a \"selling tide\" in the bond market, and the stock market plummeted.</p><p>The Bloomberg Billionaires Real-Time Index shows,<b>On September 26th, Li Ka-shing had a net worth of $26.7 billion (about 191.241 billion yuan), compared with $28.1 billion (about 201.176 billion yuan) the day before, and 9.935 billion yuan evaporated in one day.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ce18619140bf79d1941bdbdf4af7cb\" tg-width=\"1068\" tg-height=\"1207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Announcement</p><p>After experiencing a sharp shrink in value,<b>On September 28th, Cheung Kong Group (1113.HK) announced that it would sell its property projects in Hong Kong, China, to Sino-Suisse, a Singapore financial institution, for HK$20.766 billion (about 19.05 billion yuan), including the unsold part of the luxury residential project at No.21 Bo Lao Road.</b></p><p>On the day of the transaction, the buyer had paid a deposit of HK$2.077 billion, and then paid a total of five partial payments to the seller every six months. The first two were HK$1.038 billion each, and the last three were HK$2.077 billion each. In addition, the purchaser is required to pay the balance upon completion of the transaction.</p><p>According to Cheung Kong Group, the sale will allow the company to realise its investment in the development project and the buyer's loan will help complete the transaction,<b>The Company expects the gain from the disposal to be approximately HK$6.3 billion (approximately HK$5.779 billion)</b>The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes of the Group.</p><p><b>\"Hoarding land\" for 11 years, making a profit of 5.779 billion yuan</b></p><p>According to the data, 21 BORRETT ROAD is one of the well-known super luxury projects in Hong Kong, China. This transaction includes 152 residential units, 242 residential parking spaces and 31 motorcycle parking spaces.</p><p><b>In June 2011, Cheung Kong Group acquired the Borough Road site for HK$11.65 billion at a floor price of HK$26,763 per foot, setting a record for the second highest price in Hong Kong, China.</b></p><p>The site is located in the luxury residential area of the West Mid-Levels in Hong Kong, China, with an area of approximately 10,500 square meters and a buildable GFA of approximately 40,400 square meters. It was once described as a \"first-class beautiful site\" by Mr. Li, Chairman of Cheung Kong Group.</p><p>Since it was bought by Cheung Kong Group in 2011, it took 10 years for the project to officially become the current floor market. Compared with the land price 10 years ago, the current average floor price has increased by more than 10 times.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb2b1e5d766054061885687df7fd0028\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: No. 21 Bo Lao Road, Cheung Kong Public Account</p><p><b>In public reports, the latest transaction of No.21 Bo Lao Road was in June this year, with two sets sold, totaling nearly HK$ 400 million (about 367 million yuan).</b></p><p>Among them, a set of Room 1, 20th floor, Phase 1, No.21 Bo Lao Road Community was sold, with a price of 270 million yuan, and an area of about 273.6 square meters. According to the transaction price, its unit price reached 986,900 yuan/square meter.</p><p>Some people in the industry believe that the long-term development mode of \"hoarding land\" is a major feature of Li Ka-shing's long-term practice system, which also makes his company make a lot of profits by using this method.</p><p>Talking about Li Ka-shing's hoarding of land for profit, this statement has existed for a long time. As early as 10 years ago, Economic Observer Network reported that Li Ka-shing's Hutchison Whampoa was included in Shanghai's official land hoarding list.</p><p>Regarding Li Ka-shing's land hoarding behavior,<b>China Times once reported that over the years, more than ten projects of \"Changhe Department\" in nearly ten cities across the country have been developed by \"snail-style\" methods, extending the land development cycle from 6 years to more than 10 years.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce126a777041428467fdc98a4c7691ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the face of outside doubts,<b>Cheung Kong Group has publicly responded that Cheung Kong's domestic real estate projects have been carried out in accordance with laws and regulations and all government procedures, and the development is slow, which is really misunderstood, and the sale of projects is also a normal commercial behavior of real estate developers.</b></p><p>Today, Li Ka-shing has once again realized a profit of HK$6.3 billion by \"hoarding land\". In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong can effectively lock in considerable profits by selling all the units yet to be launched in Bo Lao Road to a single buyer in a few days.</p><p>The buyer of this transaction is Huarui Capital, which was founded in Singapore in 2017 and obtained the capital market service license issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.</p><p>For buyers, buying a premium luxury property in the most prized area of Hong Kong, China, and looking around today's market, it is difficult to find a comparable quality property with a high return on investment value, and the potential for appreciation of projects should be satisfactory when Hong Kong is fully opened.</p><p><b>Li Ka-shing's Buying and Selling</b></p><p>Since 2013, Li Ka-shing, who has been crowned by the industry as good at \"hoarding land\", has started to move assets and made frequent profits by selling asset projects.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics, including the sale of Hong Kong Central Center and Watsons' equity, the amount of assets sold by Li Ka-shing has exceeded at least 250 billion yuan.</p><p>At the same time of the sale, Li Ka-shing never stopped making new investments.<b>In 2021, Cheung Kong Group spent HK$17.38 billion through various channels to purchase 4 parcels of land in Hong Kong, China, increasing the gross floor area available for development by approximately 154,600 square metres.</b></p><p>In May this year, Li Ka-shing appeared again in the mainland soil auction market after ten years since 2012. In the auction of Baiyun Airport Avenue plot in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, Hutchison Whampoa, owned by Li Ka-shing, also participated in the bidding, but did not win in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5cfa9374570c5bca3cb35fc02610b27\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to a list published earlier, the market value of properties still held by Cheung Kong Group in mainland China reaches 126.16 billion yuan, distributed in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Chengdu, Dalian and other places, of which the market value of properties available for development is 31.573 billion yuan.</p><p><b>In fact, since 2020, Cheung Kong Group has sold overseas businesses and assets many times, involving energy, communication, real estate, electric power, aircraft leasing and other sectors, including Husky Energy, which Li Ka-shing called \"one of the most successful investments in his life\".</b></p><p>In March 2022, Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of its London office building for 729 million pounds (about 6 billion yuan). The expected gain of Cheung Kong from the disposal is approximately 108 million pounds (approximately 896 million yuan).</p><p>In addition, in July this year, Cheung Kong Group was close to completing the sale of British Power Company of 15 billion pounds (about 116.813 billion yuan), but the whole sale plan finally collapsed due to the last-minute price increase.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8746e7839869ecee34dfb2878cef5ca3\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Cheung Kong Group Financial Report</p><p>The reason for this operation can be seen by analyzing its annual report data. According to the annual report, in 2021, the total revenue of Cheung Kong Group was HK$62.094 billion, of which property was the main revenue, property sales reached HK$37.76 billion, property leasing amounted to HK$6.543 billion, including hotel and serviced suite business amounted to HK$2.691 billion, property and project management amounted to HK$816 million, and British pub business amounted to HK$14.284 billion.</p><p>Regardless of property sales and property leasing, Hong Kong and the Mainland accounted for a relatively large proportion.<b>In the property sales business, the property sales in Hong Kong, the PRC amounted to HK$15,724 million, the property sales in the Mainland amounted to HK$21,722 million and the property sales in overseas amounted to HK$352 million. For property leasing, Hong Kong, China was HK$4,352 million, Mainland China was HK$571 million and overseas was HK$738 million.</b></p><p>As the richest man in Hong Kong, China, Li Ka-shing's business actions have always attracted much attention from the market. Since the beginning of this year, Li Ka-shing has made frequent moves, and some voices pointed out that \"Li Ka-shing wants to flee Britain\" and \"Li Ka-shing is back\".</p><p>Li Zeju responded that selling buildings is a daily business and business, and there is no divestment. He said that the mainland and Hong Kong are the hometowns of the Group, and there are emotional factors, but they will still pay attention to the return on investment.</p><p><b>\"Pick up leaks\" Evergrande Center still has a chance?</b></p><p>The biggest trick to be able to \"hoard land\" for profit is to bargain-hunting and \"pick up leaks\". In July this year, Li Ka-shing tried to bargain for China Evergrande Center.</p><p><b>On July 28, China Evergrande (3333.HK) sold China Evergrande Centre for the second time by bidding, with the price reduced from HK$10.5 billion to HK$9 billion.</b></p><p>Prior to this, in August 2021, it was reported in the market that Evergrande offered HK$15.6 billion to seek the takeover of Hong Kong Evergrande Center. Subsequently, after approaching Yuexiu Real Estate, the price dropped to HK$10.5 billion, but the transaction did not happen in the end.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b27d545b805efd24953789514ada0df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Can Gallery</p><p>China Evergrande Center is a 26-storey Grade A office building with a total gross floor area of approximately 32,100 square meters located in the centre of Wanchai, Hong Kong, China. Its predecessor was Mass Tower.</p><p>In 2015, China Evergrande bought it from Chinese Land (0127.HK) for HK$12.5 billion, setting a record for commercial building sales in Hong Kong, China.</p><p>At the end of July 2022, after the resale of China Evergrande Centre, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group submitted a tender, which was valued at approximately HK$9 billion at the time. In the eyes of the industry, Cheung Kong Group intends to bargain-hunting and \"pick up leaks\".</p><p><b>However, on September 13th, according to public documents in Hong Kong, China, China Evergrande Center has recently been taken over by the receiver appointed by CITIC Bank International, a subsidiary of creditor CITIC Bank.</b></p><p>According to the analysis of industry insiders quoted by the media, China Evergrande has defaulted on default, failed to repay the money on time, and tried to sell the building assets twice, but no one has ever taken over, so the lender finally decided to take over the asset.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24cfd494a3a164f571329d27478f9c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the eve of the National Day, there was market news that China Evergrande Center Building was being sold by Savills as an exclusive agent, and the bid deadline was October 31, 2022.</p><p><b>According to market estimates, the current valuation of the property is over HK$8 billion, which is about 40% discount to Evergrande's purchase of HK$12.5 billion. The property has attracted enquiries and visits from local developers, funds and mainland buyers in Hong Kong.</b></p><p>Savills said that with reference to the Murray Road project won by Henderson Land Development in 2017, the price per square foot is about HK$50,000, and the total price is about HK$32.38 billion; Another site at 3 Central Waterfront, which was acquired in 2021, was sold at a price of approximately HK$31,000 per square foot, with a total price of HK$50.8 billion.</p><p>From the failure of two sales to the sale again now, Evergrande Center has long changed from a proud commercial landmark of Evergrande Group to a replacement chip.<b>Nowadays, Li Ka-shing, who is good at \"hoarding land\" to make profits, still has the opportunity to bargain-hunting.</b></p><p>In this regard, Feng Lun, a former real estate tycoon, said: In the mainland and Hong Kong, China, although Li Ka-shing has done many real estate projects in a down-to-earth manner, they are basically ordinary houses. He does not want to do a good job in this industry like Vanke, so he has not received many particularly good reputations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A\">野马财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008f7af8c99c674df2ab1df3744f67dd","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HN5vojZb8w407R_TggMm0A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143870144","content_text":"身价缩水百亿后，李嘉诚家族旗下长实集团再次依靠“囤地”获利。由于英镑和欧元大幅贬值，重仓欧洲市场的李嘉诚家族企业遭受重创。9月23日，英国政府推出50年来最大减税政策，结果导致英国遭遇股债汇“三杀”，英镑兑美元一度走下1.04关口，债市场出现“抛售潮”，股市大跌。彭博亿万富翁实时指数显示，9月26日，李嘉诚拥有267亿美元（约1912.41亿元）身家，而前一天李嘉诚身家为281亿美元（约2011.76 亿元），一天之内蒸发99.35亿元。来源：长实集团公告在经历身价大幅缩水后，9月28日，长实集团(1113.HK)公告称，将以207.66亿港元（约190.5亿元）向新加坡金融机构Sino-Suisse出售中国香港物业项目，其中包含波老道21号豪宅项目未售出部分。在交易当天，买方已经支付20.77亿港元订金，之后每6个月向卖方支付共5笔部分付款，前两笔均每笔为10.38亿港元，后三笔每笔为20.77亿港元。另外，买方须于交易完成时支付余额。长实集团表示，出售项目令公司得以变现有关发展项目投资，买方贷款将有助交易完成，公司预期出售所得收益约为63亿港元（约57.79亿元），所得款项净额将用作集团一般营运资金用途。“囤地”11年，获利57.79亿元资料显示，波老道21号（21 BORRETT ROAD）是中国香港知名的超级豪宅项目之一，本次交易包括152个住宅单位、242个住宅停车位及31个电单车停车位。2011年6月，长实集团以116.5亿港元购入波老道地皮，每尺楼面地价为26763港元，创下当年中国香港第二高价纪录。该地皮位于中国香港西半山豪宅地段，面积约1.05万平方米，可建楼面面积约4.04万平方米，曾被长实集团主席李泽钜称为\"一级靓地\"。自从2011年被长实集团买下，该项目经历10年才正式以现楼面市，和10年前地价相比，目前楼面均价上涨超过10倍。来源：长实波老道21號公众号在公开报道中，波老道21号最近一次成交是今年6月份，成交2套，合计近4亿港元（约3.67亿元）。其中，成交的一套波老道21号小区第1期20楼1室，作价2.7亿元，套内面积约273.6平方米，按成交价计算，其单价达98.69万元/平方米。有业内人士认为，采用“囤地”式的漫长开发模式是李嘉诚长实系的一大特点，这也让其公司运用这种方式获利不少。谈论李嘉诚囤地获利，此种说法存续已久。早在10年前，《经济观察网》曾报道李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔被列入了上海官方囤地名单中。对于李嘉诚长实系的囤地行为，《华夏时报》曾报道称，多年来“长和系”在全国近十个城市十余个项目，均通过“蜗牛式”开发方式，延长土地开发周期从6年到10多年不等。面对外界质疑，长实集团曾公开回应表示，长实国内的地产项目一直根据法规及所有政府程序进行，开发缓慢，实有所误解，而出售项目也属于地产商正常商业行为。如今，李嘉诚再次实现“囤地”获利63亿港元。在业内人士看来，长实几天向单一买家全数出售波老道尚待推出之单位，能有效率地锁定可观利润。而本次交易的买家为华瑞资本，于2017年在新加坡创立，并同时取得新加坡金融管理局所颁发的资本市场服务执照。对买家而言，买入座落于中国香港最珍罕地段的顶级豪宅，环顾现今市场亦难有可媲美的优质物业，具高投资值回报率，当香港全面开关后，项目之升值潜力应甚理想。李嘉诚的买与卖从2013年开始，被业界冠以擅长“囤地”的李嘉诚开启资产腾挪，并通过出售资产项目频频获利。据不完全统计，包括出售香港中环中心、屈臣氏股权等交易在内，李嘉诚卖掉的资产规模金额至少已经超过2500亿元。在出售的同时，李嘉诚始终没有停止新的投资。2021年，长实集团通过不同渠道斥资173.8亿港元在中国香港买入4幅土地，增加了约15.46万平方米楼面面积可供开发。今年5月，李嘉诚更是自2012年后时隔十年再次出现在内地土拍市场。在广州白云区的白云空港大道地块的竞拍中，李嘉诚旗下的和记黄埔也参与了竞标，但最终并没有竞得。据早前公布的一份清单，长实集团在中国内地仍持有的物业市值达1261.6亿元，分布在北京、广州、上海、长沙、南京、成都、大连等地，其中可供发展的物业市值为315.73亿元。实际上，2020年以来，长实集团先后多次出售海外业务及资产，涉及能源、通讯、房地产、电力、飞机租赁等板块，其中包括被李嘉诚称为“一生最成功的投资之一”的赫斯基能源。2022年3月，长实集团宣布以7.29亿英镑(约60亿元)出售持有的英国伦敦办公楼。长实从该出售事项获得的预期收益约为1.08亿英镑(约8.96亿元)。除此之外，今年7月，长实集团曾接近完成150亿英镑（约1168.13亿元）出售英国电力公司的交易，但由于最后时刻提价，整个出售计划最终告吹。来源：长实集团财报之所以如此操作，分析其年报数据便可窥知一二。年报显示，2021年，长实集团总收入为620.94亿港元，其中物业方面为主要营收，物业销售达到377.6亿港元，物业租赁为65.43亿港元，还包括酒店及服务套房业务为26.91亿港元，物业及项目管理为8.16亿港元，英式酒馆业务为142.84亿港元。不论物业销售还是物业租赁，中国香港及内地均所占比重较大。物业销售业务中，中国香港物业销售额为157.24亿港元，内地物业销售金额为217.22亿港元，海外物业销售金额为3.52亿港元。物业租赁方面，中国香港为43.52亿港元，内地为5.71亿港元，海外为7.38亿港元。作为中国香港首富，李嘉诚的商业动作一直备受市场关注。今年以来，李嘉诚动作频频，有声音指出“李嘉诚要逃离英国”“李嘉诚回来了”。李泽钜则回应称，卖楼是日常业务和本业，并不存在撤资。他说，内地及香港是集团的家乡，存在感情因素，但仍会关注投资回报。“捡漏”恒大中心仍有机会？之所以能够“囤地”盈利，最大的诀窍就是抄底“捡漏”。今年7月份，李嘉诚曾试图抄底中国恒大中心。7月28日，中国恒大（3333.HK）第二次以竞标形式将中国恒大中心出售，价格由105亿港元降至90亿港元。在此之前，2021年8月，市场曾传出恒大开价156亿港元寻求香港恒大中心接盘方，随后与越秀地产接洽后，价格降至105亿港元，但交易最终并未成行。来源：罐头图库中国恒大中心位于中国香港湾仔闹市中央，是一栋26层高，总建筑面积约3.21万平方米的甲级写字楼，其前身为美国万通大厦。2015年，中国恒大斥资125亿港元从华人置业（0127.HK）手中将其购得，并创下了中国香港商厦买卖的最高纪录。2022年7月底，在中国恒大中心再放售后，李嘉诚旗下长实集团递交了投标书，当时该物业估值约90亿港元。在业界看来，长实集团意在抄底“捡漏”。然而，9月13日，据中国香港公开文件披露，中国恒大中心已于近日被债权人中信银行旗下中信银行国际委任接管人接管。据媒体援引业内人士分析称，中国恒大已经拖欠违约，未按时偿还款项，并且两度尝试出售大厦资产，但始终无人接盘，因此最终贷款方决定接管这一资产。在国庆前夕，有市场消息称，中国恒大中心大楼正由第一太平戴维斯独家代理出售，截标日期为2022年10月31日。据市场估算，目前该物业的估值在80亿港元以上，较恒大125亿港元的购入折价约40%。该物业已吸引了香港本地发展商、基金及内地买家询问和参观。第一太平戴维斯则表示，参照恒基兆业地产于2017年投得的美利道项目，呎价约5万港元，总价约323.8亿港元；另一个于2021年投得的中环海滨3号用地，则以呎价约3.1万港元，总价508亿港元成交。从两次出售失败到如今再次放售，恒大中心早已从原先恒大集团为之骄傲的商业地标变为置换筹码。如今，善于“囤地”获利的李嘉诚，依然有抄底的机会。对此，昔日地产大佬冯仑表示：在内地和中国香港，虽然李嘉诚也扎扎实实地做了不少房地产项目，但基本上都是普通的住宅，他不像万科那样要把这个行业彻底做好，所以他收到口碑特别好的并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916034129,"gmtCreate":1664484455761,"gmtModify":1676537462006,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","listText":"[害羞]&nbsp;","text":"[害羞]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916034129","repostId":"1136112284","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136112284","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664420902,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136112284?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 11:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Big Option Order | Big News, Apple Option Trading Volume Surges! Ali's Put transactions accounted for more than 80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136112284","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England's emergency intervention in the market, the market sentiment improved obviously, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, which was higher than the 90-day average volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, up from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. On the news side, Apple is ready to abandon its internal plan to increase production by up to 6 million units after learning that the demand for iPhone 14 failed to meet expectations. On Wednesday, 2.353 million options contracts were traded, compared with 1.284 million in the previous trading day, up more than 83% from the previous month; Among them, put options account for 54% of all option trades; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring on September 30, 2022 was particularly high in volume, with 159,375 trades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing production of iPhones, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stage of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhone in the early stage of release, and the iPhone production arrangement will be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% at $80.99 on Wednesday. According to the latest comment of CICC, in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit end may exceed market expectations. On Wednesday, 614,300 option contracts were traded, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option trades; Among them, the $180 strike price put option expiring on January 20, 2023 was particularly high in volume, with 65,960 trades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that 2QFY23 revenue will be slightly lower than market expectations, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent will exceed market expectations; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to RMB207.3 billion, which is 3% lower than market expectations, primarily due to the impact or pressure on business in China due to the pandemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to RMB29.8 billion, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.<b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high with 16,032 calls expiring on September 30, 2022 with an exercise price of $250.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% at $276.61 on Wednesday. In the news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high with 8,430 calls expiring on September 30, 2022 with an exercise price of $300.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Option Order | Big News, Apple Option Trading Volume Surges! Ali's Put transactions accounted for more than 80%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Option Order | Big News, Apple Option Trading Volume Surges! Ali's Put transactions accounted for more than 80%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>I. Market Overview (28/09)</b></p><p>On Wednesday, Eastern Time, after the Bank of England's emergency intervention in the market, the market sentiment improved obviously, and U.S. stocks rose sharply. As of the close, the Dow Jones index rose 1.88% to 29,683.74 points; The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to 3,719.04; The Nasdaq rose 2.05% to 11,051.64.</p><p>The total trading volume of the options market reached 40,683,443 contracts, which was higher than the 90-day average volume, of which put options accounted for 53%.</p><p>S&P ETF-SPY options traded 9.837 million contracts, up from the previous trading day, of which put options accounted for 59.4%.</p><p><b>TOP10 Total Option Trading Volume</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33de4ebb143b5ed75172f05cc806cf8f\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2134\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It closed down 1.27% at $149.84 on Wednesday. On the news side, Apple is ready to abandon its internal plan to increase production by up to 6 million units after learning that the demand for iPhone 14 failed to meet expectations. On Wednesday, 2.353 million options contracts were traded, compared with 1.284 million in the previous trading day, up more than 83% from the previous month; Among them, put options account for 54% of all option trades; Among them, the $150 strike call option expiring on September 30, 2022 was particularly high in volume, with 159,375 trades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad5e7bdbfb7eb7f96932d7ab239d5043\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117618958\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Apple stops increasing production of iPhones, what do Wall Street analysts think?</b></a></p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts released a research report pointing out that it is still in the early stage of the iPhone 14 cycle, and the next 3-5 weeks will still be the key to determining the strength of the iPhone 14 cycle. At that time, the supply chain will be fed back by the additional demand for iPhone in the early stage of release, and the iPhone production arrangement will be readjusted accordingly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It closed up 4.01% at $80.99 on Wednesday. According to the latest comment of CICC, in 22Q3, Alibaba's cost reduction and efficiency increase are sustainable, and the overall performance of the profit end may exceed market expectations. On Wednesday, 614,300 option contracts were traded, of which put options accounted for 81.5% of all option trades; Among them, the $180 strike price put option expiring on January 20, 2023 was particularly high in volume, with 65,960 trades.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb9998732216cada1ff2c361bad136d\" tg-width=\"1872\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/270f54105b7b5a2daa8ba5705efafe42\" tg-width=\"1580\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Related information:</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1182486151\" target=\"_blank\"><b>CICC: Alibaba's 2QFY23 revenue may be under pressure, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are sustainable</b></a></p><p>It is forecast that 2QFY23 revenue will be slightly lower than market expectations, and non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent will exceed market expectations; We expect Alibaba Group's 2QFY23 revenue to increase by 3% year-on-year to RMB207.3 billion, which is 3% lower than market expectations, primarily due to the impact or pressure on business in China due to the pandemic and macro uncertainties; We expect adjusted EBITA to increase by 6% year-on-year to RMB29.8 billion, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.<b>3. Movement observation</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a13c3cc89f7124e0b39dca5f2e9ab1da\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>It closed up 9.29% at $245.2 on Wednesday. Atlantic Securities upgraded the company to \"overweight\" from \"neutral\" and raised its price target to $283 from $211. Volume was particularly high with 16,032 calls expiring on September 30, 2022 with an exercise price of $250.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3ea64e43ae75edcf71e7d99c54c448\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIIB\">Biogen</a>It closed up 39.85% at $276.61 on Wednesday. In the news, the new Alzheimer's disease drug jointly developed with Eisai has made positive progress. Volume was particularly high with 8,430 calls expiring on September 30, 2022 with an exercise price of $300.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361c9cc79e3da5413ba27ff15d5cb046\" tg-width=\"1577\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","BABA":"阿里巴巴","AAPL":"苹果","BIIB":"渤健公司","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136112284","content_text":"一、市场概览 （28/09）美东时间周三，在英国央行紧急干预市场后，市场情绪明显好转，美股大幅上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.88%，报29,683.74点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报3,719.04点；纳斯达克指数涨2.05%，报11,051.64点。期权市场总成交量达40,683,443张合约，高于90日平均成交量，其中，看跌期权占比53%。标普指数ETF-SPY期权成交983.7万张合约，较前一交易日有所上涨，其中，看跌期权占比59.4%。二、期权成交总量TOP10苹果周三收跌1.27%，报149.84美元。消息面，苹果公司在得知iPhone 14的需求未能达到预期后，准备放弃内部拟定的高达600万部的增产计划。周三期权合约成交235.3万张，前一交易日为128.4万张，环比上涨逾83%；其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的54%；其中2022年9月30日到期的150美元行使价看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为159,375张。相关资讯：苹果停止增产iPhone，华尔街分析师怎么看？摩根士丹利分析师发布研报指出，目前仍处于iPhone14周期的早期阶段，未来3-5周仍将是决定iPhone 14周期强弱的关键，届时供应链将受到发布初期iPhone额外需求的反馈，iPhone生产安排也将相应地重新调整。阿里巴巴周三收涨4.01%，报80.99美元。中金最新点评称，22Q3，阿里巴巴降本增效有可持续性，利润端整体表现或超市场预期。周三期权合约成交61.43万张，其中看跌期权占全部期权交易的81.5%；其中2023年1月20日到期的180美元行使价看跌期权的成交量特别高，成交量为65,960张。相关资讯：中金：阿里2QFY23收入或承压，降本增效有可持续性预测2QFY23收入略低于市场预期，non-GAAP归母净利润超市场预期；我们预计阿里巴巴集团2QFY23收入同比增长3%至2,073亿元人民币，低于市场预期3%，主要由于中国商业受疫情和宏观不确定影响或承压；我们预计调整EBITA将同比上升6%至298亿元，主要由于降本增效超预期。三、异动观察奈飞周三收涨9.29%，报245.2美元。大西洋证券将该公司评级从“中性”上调至“增持”，并将目标价从211美元上调至283美元。2022年9月30日到期行权价为250美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为16,032张。百健周三收涨39.85%，报276.61美元。消息面，与卫材共同研发的阿尔茨海默病新药取得积极进展。2022年9月30日到期行权价为300美元看涨期权的成交量特别高，成交量为8,430张。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"BIIB":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918717777,"gmtCreate":1664456214300,"gmtModify":1676537458597,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MITQ\">$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$</a>","text":"$Moving iMage Technologies Inc.(MITQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe52d0ffe9f801f214b039a81b443127","width":"1125","height":"1761"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918717777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918442198,"gmtCreate":1664441581515,"gmtModify":1676537456116,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918442198","repostId":"1191634483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191634483","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664439517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191634483?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Changes | Futures indexes both fell, and the pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks was sluggish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191634483","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29th (Thursday), Britain unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, which drove the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% in the pre-market session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>It fell by 20% before the market, and the two companies were executed by 1.3 million daily; Zhejiang Company was cancelled due to the resolution to be dissolved.</p><p>Chinese stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>JD.COM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. It was reported that the demand for iPhone 14 was sluggish and Apple gave up increasing production. Supply chain sources say total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks were lower in the premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>down 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Changes | Futures indexes both fell, and the pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks was sluggish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChanges | Futures indexes both fell, and the pre-market trend of Chinese concept stocks was sluggish\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-29 16:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 29th (Thursday), Britain unexpectedly rescued the market overnight, which drove the European and American stock and bond markets to rebound collectively. Today, the global market returned to turmoil. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes all fell by more than 1% in the pre-market session.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21338872e0982368b9d049f87709a866\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>It fell by 20% before the market, and the two companies were executed by 1.3 million daily; Zhejiang Company was cancelled due to the resolution to be dissolved.</p><p>Chinese stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>JD.COM,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%, and Baidu fell more than 2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d290ae502a32330bffc77feb4068c9e\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell 1.35%. It was reported that the demand for iPhone 14 was sluggish and Apple gave up increasing production. Supply chain sources say total orders have not been adjusted.</p><p>U.S. bank stocks were lower in the premarket,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>down 4.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>down 3.92%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>down 3.2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HBC\">HSBC Holdings</a>down 2.7%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191634483","content_text":"9月29日（周四），隔夜英国意外出手救市，带动欧美股债市场集体反弹，今日全球市场重回动荡。美股三大指数期货在盘前时段均跌超1%。每日优鲜盘前跌20%，每日优鲜两公司被执行130万；浙江公司注销，原因为决议解散。中概股盘前普跌，小鹏汽车跌近8%，爱奇艺、网易、京东、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度跌超2%。苹果跌1.35%，有消息称iPhone14需求低迷，苹果放弃增产。供应链人士表示总订单未调整。美股银行股盘前走低，瑞士信贷跌超5%，巴克莱银行跌4.8%，德意志银行跌3.92%，瑞银跌3.2%，汇丰控股跌2.7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918492213,"gmtCreate":1664425875333,"gmtModify":1676537453135,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918937442,"gmtCreate":1664313628287,"gmtModify":1676537428609,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918937442","repostId":"1140617695","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140617695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664176713,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140617695?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 15:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Jobs' old book ate for 11 years: fat Cook, thin scalper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140617695","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper has made six figures this year, a third of what he had earned in previous years, but he is already the best among the scalpers. This year's market is destined to make less and lose more, and some scalpers have lost four to five hundred thousand yuan. The scalpers who once made a lot of money on Apple stumbled after the launch of iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point happened when the iPhone 8 was launched, and some dealers found Apple's new opportunity cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year became the last residual temperature of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple sits firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who has achieved great commercial success in charge of this super aircraft carrier, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit fans, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs' old capital has eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized for \"no innovation and loss of soul\", was left out by consumers and spat out by Big V. It also made the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Steve Jobs era step into the pit, and some people lost hundreds of thousands of yuan a day. The once golden apple has become a bitter fruit that is difficult to swallow in the eyes of many scalpers.</p><p>In the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential energy, Apple has firmly sat on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value by more than 6 times. But Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled the outside world's doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook taking down Apple's innovation label\" has set off a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter spat on iPhone 14 as nothing new. Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline\".</p><p>The rollover of iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the old feast carnival. The frenzy of the Jobs era is still alive, but the chill has arrived. Rushing to the next battlefield without stopping to earn more profits was their top priority.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made perfect preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released for three days.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of new Apple products, the experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team squatted in three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing respectively. \"There are only three people in our team, including 15 temporarily hired foreign aid queues.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for 100 yuan each. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they grab it or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three people squatted on the side. If the hired people grabbed the mobile phones, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phones to sell them to the users in line at an increase.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done enough homework, has a clear goal. The night before Apple's release date, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year, we only grab iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, and earned 2,000 yuan. But then after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought of reselling one with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and each one still had a profit of 1,500 yuan.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that it couldn't be sold at all.\"</p><p>The diving of Apple's new machine premium is faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something was wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of the premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared about it. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine dived in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost their bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the machine before the sale, my peers all set the premium of the purple model of 14 Pro Max at about 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of the scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers with a price increase of more than 1,500 yuan. \"No way, they gave too much\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after the sale Source: provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has dealt with scalpers for many years, and he divides the scalper party into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. The intermediate has their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Senior scalpers can be one step ahead and have ordered goods from dealers before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new machines directly from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"For products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before every order, he would receive pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least more than half less\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have raised prices to buy new Apple machines have calmed down a lot this year. Most of their reasons for no longer enthusiastic point to criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it is worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of what she earned in previous years, but she is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail Investors Backstab Scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Huang Niu Jun.\" Liu Wei posted such a circle of friends on the night of the first day that Apple's new machine went on sale.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pro, he was stopped by the scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the mobile phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, called several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his opinion, it was a sure-fire business. It is best to sell it to scalpers, and you can get an unconditional refund for 14 days if you can't sell it. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people also figured out the door and began to \"back stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new machine and \"reversed water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their own mobile phones and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced cattle hunters in Lu Fan's eyes were apple dealers.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released the news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". The first batch of premium mobile phones did not flow to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers own a portion of stable profits and certain premium rights. The scalpers in the middle reaches earn the difference by buying and selling, while the downstream ones are users who are eager to get the new machine first. They are the ones who finally pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the reputation of iPhone 14 has turned this hidden trading market under the water into a game of losing more and winning less. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powder suddenly cools down, and the pressure is transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one-machine huge profit\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the object of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>The scalpers who dare to spend money and gamble on huge profits have witnessed the huge wealth dream created by Apple's mobile phone.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with iPhone 4, which became a milestone in the history of smart phones and opened the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000 yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 University, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and squatted 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's generation of magic machines, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units in three days, and the supply exceeded the demand. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about four months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the largest one earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, a slightly diligent scalper team earned a million in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, it still needed to increase the price by 1,000 yuan to find a scalper to buy the iPhone 4.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Fan Lu found Apple's new opportunity cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation was rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple's products are too similar in shape, like \"four generations under one roof\", and their functions have not been substantially innovated.</p><p>The high-hoped iPhone X gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market response. Users don't buy this \"never-before-existing smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be not the first.</p><p>The scalpers lose money, and Apple loses even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, and its share price once plunged by more than 7%, and its market value of over $60 billion evaporated.</p><p>When iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to make the difference is gradually shrinking. A new machine usually increases the price by several hundred yuan, which is far from the difficult-to-find machine before iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year became the last residual temperature of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, it was a global shortage of cores, and Apple suffered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in a special period has made scalpers find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that iPhone 13 is popular, but that Apple didn't have so much stock at the first time, and that time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not flexible\", a number of bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of iPhone 14, and the supply of new machines was very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind to stop looking for scalpers to add money to snap up new machines this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and on more than one occasion, she has increased the price for a new launch. In her view, showing off the latest iPhone first is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geeky\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geeky at all to grab this overly similar model\".</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as more than established and less aggressive.</p><p>Since 1997, when \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and thus secured the top spot in technology companies.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made eye-catching innovations, and even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved sales success, is Apple's first big-screen mobile phone, and is thought to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. Dynamic Island and other functions of iPhone 14 have also been questioned to copy Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms that \"Apple is eating from Jobs\", and even thought that 2022 was the turning point of Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There's no denying that Apple under Cook has been a huge success in terms of sales volume and the company's market capitalization. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phone, which used to be highly priced, began to \"bow its head\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that since iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 dropped to 5,499 yuan from 6,499 yuan for the previous generation iPhone XR. On the other hand, the price of flagship machines in Android camp continues to rise. OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts from 5,999 yuan, and Xiaomi 10 Extreme Edition also starts from 5,299 yuan, which is the same or even higher than iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued the strategy of not raising the price of new machines.</p><p>Today, Jobs left behind the old capital is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still occupied more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a record for iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and pocketing more than 60% of the profits of global mobile phones.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not abandon apples easily. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual hardware (mainly chips) steady update and software system stability still have a huge appeal to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to keep the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, gliding forward by inertia. However, as the apple's aura fades, the chilling cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and perceived the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple to eat, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"The failure of scalpers will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual\".</p><p>The scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to be sad about this. Rushing to the next battlefield without stopping to earn more profits was their top priority.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to fight Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new machine has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest price has to be increased by 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid, the world's top software and hardware integration, the iPhone 14 can't be a swan song. However, the final chapter of the scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's lying and winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jobs' old book ate for 11 years: fat Cook, thin scalper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJobs' old book ate for 11 years: fat Cook, thin scalper\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪豹财经社</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 15:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Text/Yan Xuegong</p><p>A scalper has made six figures this year, a third of what he had earned in previous years, but he is already the best among the scalpers. This year's market is destined to make less and lose more, and some scalpers have lost four to five hundred thousand yuan. The scalpers who once made a lot of money on Apple stumbled after the launch of iPhone 14.</p><p>Apple, under the helm of Jobs, once built a golden age of overnight wealth for scalpers. The turning point happened when the iPhone 8 was launched, and some dealers found Apple's new opportunity cold for the first time. The iPhone 13 released last year became the last residual temperature of the scalper business boom.</p><p>Apple sits firmly on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, but Cook, who has achieved great commercial success in charge of this super aircraft carrier, seems to have not dispelled the doubts of the outside world. In the eyes of some fruit fans, Apple is losing its soul of innovation and gradually becoming a mediocre wealth-making company.</p><p>Jobs' old capital has eaten for 11 years, and Apple once again ushered in the embarrassing moment of word-of-mouth overturning.</p><p>The iPhone 14, which was criticized for \"no innovation and loss of soul\", was left out by consumers and spat out by Big V. It also made the \"scalpers\" who made a lot of money in the Steve Jobs era step into the pit, and some people lost hundreds of thousands of yuan a day. The once golden apple has become a bitter fruit that is difficult to swallow in the eyes of many scalpers.</p><p>In the past 11 years, with its dazzling brand aura and huge commercial potential energy, Apple has firmly sat on the throne of the world's highest technology company by market value, with its revenue increasing by nearly 2.5 times and its market value by more than 6 times. But Cook, who is in charge of this super aircraft carrier and has achieved great commercial success, still seems to have not dispelled the outside world's doubts.</p><p>The topic of \"Cook taking down Apple's innovation label\" has set off a wave of discussion after almost every new product release. Jobs' daughter spat on iPhone 14 as nothing new. Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said that \"iPhone 14 may be a sign of Apple's prosperity and decline\".</p><p>The rollover of iPhone 14 woke up the scalpers who were still immersed in the old feast carnival. The frenzy of the Jobs era is still alive, but the chill has arrived. Rushing to the next battlefield without stopping to earn more profits was their top priority.</p><p><b>A bet that must be lost</b></p><p>\"I made perfect preparations, but I didn't expect to lose 40,000 to 50,000 yuan.\" Ye Jingyue, who has been a scalper for three years, sighed and summarized her battle situation since the iPhone 14 was released for three days.</p><p>In order to fight the annual battle of new Apple products, the experienced Ye Jingyue has drawn up a detailed plan.</p><p>At 7 o'clock on the morning of September 16th, he and his team squatted in three Apple stores in Chaoyang Joy City, Sanlitun and Heshenghui, Beijing respectively. \"There are only three people in our team, including 15 temporarily hired foreign aid queues.\"</p><p>They hire people to queue up for 100 yuan each. These people may be students and housewives, and they will be paid whether they grab it or not. Ye Jingyue's team of three people squatted on the side. If the hired people grabbed the mobile phones, they would show up to pay, and then take the new phones to sell them to the users in line at an increase.</p><p>Ye Jingyue, who has done enough homework, has a clear goal. The night before Apple's release date, he gave the foreign aid a task: \"This year, we only grab iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, and purple is the top priority style.\"</p><p>On the first day, he grabbed two 14 Pros at the original price, sold them at an increase of 1,000 yuan, and earned 2,000 yuan. But then after acquiring more than 20 units from users at a premium of 1,500 yuan, he began to lose money. \"When I first got the mobile phone, I felt very happy. I thought of reselling one with a price increase of about 3,000 yuan, and each one still had a profit of 1,500 yuan.\" He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"But after I got the mobile phone, I found that it couldn't be sold at all.\"</p><p>The diving of Apple's new machine premium is faster than Ye Jingyue imagined. By noon that day, he had noticed something was wrong, and only shouted at the \"original price\" of the premium of 1,500 yuan, but no one cared about it. On the first day, most of Ye Jingyue's mobile phones were sold at a price increase of about 600 yuan, losing 20,000 yuan. In the next two days, as the premium of Apple's new machine dived in the scalper market, the loss gradually expanded.</p><p>Ye Jingyue is far more than the only scalper who has stumbled on Apple's new products.</p><p>\"The scalpers lost their bet, and there is no winner this year.\" Lu Fan, who has been a mobile phone dealer since the iPhone 4 era, told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics, \"The price was too high before the sale this year. After I got the machine before the sale, my peers all set the premium of the purple model of 14 Pro Max at about 3,000 yuan, and the ultra-high profit aroused the gambling nature of the scalpers.\"</p><p>Most of the first batch of 14 Pros that Lu Fan got were \"robbed\" by scalpers with a price increase of more than 1,500 yuan. \"No way, they gave too much\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c574cba0d5ceaa884d5e2767fe3b96b7\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a3bed490702142b38c2567108d3af6f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Price comparison between the first day and 3 days after the sale Source: provided by Lu Fan</p><p>Lu Fan has dealt with scalpers for many years, and he divides the scalper party into three levels: high, middle and low.</p><p>At the lowest level are the newbies who follow the trend, and these people have lost the worst this year. The intermediate has their own team and can snap up mobile phones at the original price. Senior scalpers can be one step ahead and have ordered goods from dealers before they are released. According to this year's market, only senior scalpers have the opportunity to make a small profit.</p><p>Li Nan, who ordered a batch of new machines directly from dealers, is one of the lucky ones who made a small profit. But in his view, \"For products like Apple, a small profit is a loss.\"</p><p>Li Nan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that before every order, he would receive pre-orders from customer groups and personal friends to determine the purchase quantity. However, the number of customers booking this year has decreased significantly, \"at least more than half less\".</p><p>Loyal customers who have raised prices to buy new Apple machines have calmed down a lot this year. Most of their reasons for no longer enthusiastic point to criticism of the iPhone 14's lack of innovation. A customer told Li Nan, \"I don't think it is worth showing off to be the first to get a mobile phone very similar to the iPhone 13 in my hand.\"</p><p>If the fruit powder is calm, the scalper's wallet will inevitably shrink.</p><p>Li Nan earned six figures this year, only 1/3 of what she earned in previous years, but she is already a leader among scalpers. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that this year's market is destined to make less and lose more, and some peers have already lost 400,000 to 500,000 yuan.</p><p><b>Retail Investors Backstab Scalpers</b></p><p>\"Thank you, Huang Niu Jun.\" Liu Wei posted such a circle of friends on the night of the first day that Apple's new machine went on sale.</p><p>On the same day, after he bought two iPhone 14 Pro, he was stopped by the scalper at the door. Each one increased the price by 1,800 yuan and sold the mobile phone to the other party, earning a difference of 3,600 yuan.</p><p>Liu Wei, who smelled the business opportunity, called several classmates that night to snap up the iPhone 14 Pro together. In his opinion, it was a sure-fire business. It is best to sell it to scalpers, and you can get an unconditional refund for 14 days if you can't sell it. He said with a smile, \"There will always be scalpers taking over.\"</p><p>Individual retail investors like Liu Wei, who harvest scalpers in reverse, are called \"scalper hunters\" on the Internet. Among the foreign aid of the scalper team, some people also figured out the door and began to \"back stab\" the scalper.</p><p>Among the foreign aid hired by Ye Jingyue to queue up, two people snapped up the new machine and \"reversed water\" on the spot. They refused to pay for Ye Jingyue's team. Instead, they bought their own mobile phones and sold them to another wave of scalpers at a high price when they went out. In Ye Jingyue's view, \"I'm simply working for them.\"</p><p>The more advanced cattle hunters in Lu Fan's eyes were apple dealers.</p><p>In order to heat up the market, big dealers released the news after getting the mobile phone, jointly raised the price of new products to a very high level, and targeted the purple iPhone 14 Pro Max as this year's \"premium king\". The first batch of premium mobile phones did not flow to ordinary users, but most of them were sold to scalpers at high prices.</p><p>In the past, the Apple scalper market was like a funnel. The most upstream dealers own a portion of stable profits and certain premium rights. The scalpers in the middle reaches earn the difference by buying and selling, while the downstream ones are users who are eager to get the new machine first. They are the ones who finally pay for the high premium.</p><p>However, the reputation of iPhone 14 has turned this hidden trading market under the water into a game of losing more and winning less. The profits of dealers are still relatively stable, but the enthusiasm of fruit powder suddenly cools down, and the pressure is transmitted to the scalpers.</p><p>Scalpers, who are still immersed in the dream of \"one-machine huge profit\" apple feast and don't want to wake up, suddenly become the object of reverse harvest by hunters.</p><p><b>Farewell to the Golden Age</b></p><p>The scalpers who dare to spend money and gamble on huge profits have witnessed the huge wealth dream created by Apple's mobile phone.</p><p>Twelve years ago, Jobs, wearing a black sweater and jeans, appeared with iPhone 4, which became a milestone in the history of smart phones and opened the golden age of scalpers.</p><p>\"iPhone 4 is an epoch-making product, and the market is extremely enthusiastic. A 5,000 yuan mobile phone, no matter what channel you get it, will be sold for 15,000 yuan.\" Lu Fan, who graduated from 985 University, smelled the business opportunity and started the business of reselling Apple mobile phones. At that time, in order to snap up Apple mobile phones, scalpers took tents and squatted 48 hours in advance in Sanlitun and Joy City, Beijing.</p><p>As Apple's generation of magic machines, the first batch of iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units in three days, and the supply exceeded the demand. At that time, the first sale time in the domestic market was about four months late. Taking advantage of this time difference, scalpers made a lot of money.</p><p>Lu Fan told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that he found that Apple stores in Hong Kong were limited to 5 units per person, so he organized a group of people to fly to Hong Kong to queue up, and the largest one earned hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"At that time, a slightly diligent scalper team earned a million in three months.\" Even when the iPhone 4S was launched a year later, it still needed to increase the price by 1,000 yuan to find a scalper to buy the iPhone 4.</p><p>The turning point occurred when the iPhone 8 was launched, which was the first time Fan Lu found Apple's new opportunity cold.</p><p>Lu Fan, who was already an Apple distributor at that time, recalled that iPhone 8 didn't sell very well, the phenomenon of queuing in Apple stores and Zhongguancun was greatly reduced, and many scalpers who hoarded goods at high prices lost money.</p><p>It was also at this time that criticism of Apple's lack of innovation was rampant. From iPhone 5 to iPhone 8, several generations of Apple's products are too similar in shape, like \"four generations under one roof\", and their functions have not been substantially innovated.</p><p>The high-hoped iPhone X gave scalpers a slap in the face with a colder market response. Users don't buy this \"never-before-existing smartphone\". The two most proud innovations of iPhone X-full screen and face recognition-are considered to be not the first.</p><p>The scalpers lose money, and Apple loses even worse. After the poor sales of iPhone X, Apple repeatedly cut production, and its share price once plunged by more than 7%, and its market value of over $60 billion evaporated.</p><p>When iPhone X is cold, Apple's innovation ability is pulled down from the altar, and the space for scalpers to make the difference is gradually shrinking. A new machine usually increases the price by several hundred yuan, which is far from the difficult-to-find machine before iPhone 6S, and the price doubles at every turn.</p><p>The iPhone 13 released last year became the last residual temperature of the scalper business boom.</p><p>At that time, it was a global shortage of cores, and Apple suffered a supply chain crisis. The relationship between supply and demand in a special period has made scalpers find an opportunity. Ye Jingyue concluded afterwards, \"It's not that iPhone 13 is popular, but that Apple didn't have so much stock at the first time, and that time became a good opportunity to make money.\"</p><p>But the iPhone 14 doesn't have such luck. On the one hand, the new machine is almost indistinguishable from the previous generation product. \"Dynamic Island is not flexible\", a number of bugs are exposed, and new functions are repeatedly overturned. On the other hand, Cook learned his lesson and paid more attention to the supply chain management of iPhone 14, and the supply of new machines was very sufficient. Some netizens said that the new Pro version will arrive in about half a month.</p><p>This means that the soil for scalpers to make money is getting poorer and poorer.</p><p><b>The inflection point of prosperity and decline?</b></p><p>After staying up late to watch this year's new product launch conference, Apple enthusiast Hu Yiwen made up his mind to stop looking for scalpers to add money to snap up new machines this year.</p><p>She has bought all iPhone models except the iPhone 14, and on more than one occasion, she has increased the price for a new launch. In her view, showing off the latest iPhone first is not to show off wealth, but to reflect a pursuit of top new technology consumer products. \"This is very geeky\". But the iPhone 14 made her feel, \"It's not geeky at all to grab this overly similar model\".</p><p>This is certainly not a good thing for Cook, who is recognized as more than established and less aggressive.</p><p>Since 1997, when \"extraordinary\" was designated as the slogan, innovation has been regarded as the soul of Apple. During the Steve Jobs era, Apple launched more than one groundbreaking product, and thus secured the top spot in technology companies.</p><p>However, since Cook became CEO in 2011, Apple has rarely made eye-catching innovations, and even gradually reduced from the role of leader to a follower. The iPhone 6, which has achieved sales success, is Apple's first big-screen mobile phone, and is thought to have followed in the footsteps of Samsung and other brands. Dynamic Island and other functions of iPhone 14 have also been questioned to copy Android manufacturers.</p><p>Economist Ren Zeping bluntly said on social platforms that \"Apple is eating from Jobs\", and even thought that 2022 was the turning point of Apple's prosperity and decline.</p><p>There's no denying that Apple under Cook has been a huge success in terms of sales volume and the company's market capitalization. Part of the reason is that Apple's mobile phone, which used to be highly priced, began to \"bow its head\" in pricing.</p><p>Hu Yiwen noticed that since iPhone 11, Apple phones have become \"cheaper\".</p><p>On the one hand, the starting price of the iPhone 11 dropped to 5,499 yuan from 6,499 yuan for the previous generation iPhone XR. On the other hand, the price of flagship machines in Android camp continues to rise. OPPO Find X2 Pro version starts from 5,999 yuan, and Xiaomi 10 Extreme Edition also starts from 5,299 yuan, which is the same or even higher than iPhone. Since then, Apple has continued the strategy of not raising the price of new machines.</p><p>Today, Jobs left behind the old capital is still enough for Apple to eat for a while. According to Counterpoint Research, in Q2 2022, Apple still occupied more than half of the high-end smartphone market, setting a record for iPhone since 2007 with a market share of 57%, and pocketing more than 60% of the profits of global mobile phones.</p><p>Fruit powder like Hu Yiwen will not abandon apples easily. Although the innovation is insufficient, the annual hardware (mainly chips) steady update and software system stability still have a huge appeal to them.</p><p>In other words, the huge potential energy created in the Jobs era is enough to keep the Apple empire, which is slightly mediocre in innovation, gliding forward by inertia. However, as the apple's aura fades, the chilling cicadas who know autumn have faintly smelled the chill and perceived the consequences of lack of innovation.</p><p>For Lu Fan, a mobile phone dealer who relies on Apple to eat, Apple is still the bulk of his revenue. \"The failure of scalpers will not affect all this, and the sun will rise as usual\".</p><p>The scalpers who make money by scarcity and time difference have no time to be sad about this. Rushing to the next battlefield without stopping to earn more profits was their top priority.</p><p>Ye Jingyue has made every effort to fight Huawei Mate 50. He told Snow Leopard Finance and Economics that the premium level of Huawei's new machine has been relatively stable. At present, the lowest price has to be increased by 1,000 yuan, and the rarest Porsche model has been fired to more than 25,000 yuan, nearly double the original price (12,999 yuan).</p><p>For Apple, which is still standing at the top of the pyramid, the world's top software and hardware integration, the iPhone 14 can't be a swan song. However, the final chapter of the scalpers' dream of getting rich may play a prelude to the end of Apple's lying and winning.</p><p>(The characters in this article are all pseudonyms)</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml\">雪豹财经社</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5f2cbfd4e34e8ec82c7adfe60fe60a9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2022-09-26/doc-imqqsmrp0494572.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140617695","content_text":"文/闫学功一位黄牛今年赚了六位数，只有往年的三分之一，但在黄牛党中已算佼佼者。今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有黄牛已亏了四五十万元。曾靠苹果赚得盆满钵满的黄牛们在iPhone 14推出后栽了跟头。乔布斯掌舵下的苹果，曾为黄牛构筑了一夜暴富的黄金时代。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，有经销商头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。而去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，但执掌这艘超级航母取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。在一些果粉眼中，苹果正在失去创新的灵魂，逐渐沦为一家平庸的造富公司。乔布斯的老本吃了11年，苹果又一次迎来了口碑翻车的尴尬时刻。被诟病“毫无创新，失去灵魂”的iPhone 14，被消费者冷落，被大V吐槽，也让在乔布斯时代赚得盆满钵满的“黄牛们”踩到了坑里，有人一天净亏几十万元。曾经的金苹果，成为不少黄牛眼中难以下咽的苦果。11年来，凭借耀眼的品牌光环和巨大的商业势能，苹果稳坐全球市值最高科技公司宝座，营收增长了近2.5倍，市值涨了6倍多。但执掌这艘超级航母并取得巨大商业成功的库克，却似乎仍未打消外界的质疑。关于“库克揭下苹果创新标签”的话题，在几乎每一次新品发布后都会掀起一波讨论的热潮。乔布斯女儿吐槽iPhone 14毫无新意，经济学家任泽平直言“iPhone 14可能是苹果盛极而衰的标志”。iPhone 14的翻车，惊醒了还沉浸在昔日盛宴狂欢中的黄牛们。乔布斯时代的狂热余温尚存，但寒意已至。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。一场必输的赌局“做了万全的准备，没想到还是亏了四五万。”做了3年黄牛的叶静跃叹了口气，总结iPhone 14发售3天以来自己的战况。为了打好一年一度的苹果新品之战，经验丰富的叶静跃拟定了一份翔实的方案。9月16日早上7点，他和他的团队便分别在北京朝阳大悦城、三里屯和合生汇的3家苹果门店蹲守。“我们团队只有3人，算上临时雇的排队外援，有15个。”他们以每人100元的价格雇人排队抢售，这些人可能是学生、家庭主妇，不管抢没抢到都会付报酬。叶静跃团队3人则在一旁蹲守，如果雇来的人抢到手机，他们就会现身付款，随后便拿着新机向排队的用户加价售卖。做足功课的叶静跃目标十分清晰。苹果发售日前一天晚上，他便给外援们下了任务：“今年只抢iPhone 14 Pro和Pro Max，紫色是最优先款式。”第一天，他以原价抢到了两台14 Pro，转手加价1000元卖出，赚了2000元。但随后以1500元的溢价从用户手中收购了20多台后，他便开始亏损。“刚拿到手机时觉得很开心，想着一台加价3000元左右倒卖，每台还有1500元的利润。”他告诉雪豹财经社，“但手机到手后，发现根本卖不出去。”苹果新机溢价的跳水，比叶静跃想象中来得快。他到当天中午已经觉察不对，只以1500元溢价的“原价”吆喝，但已无人问津。第一天，叶静跃大部分手机加价600元左右卖出，亏了两万元。此后两天，随着苹果新机溢价在黄牛市场的跳水，亏损逐渐扩大。在苹果新品上栽了跟头的黄牛，远不止叶静跃一人。“黄牛们赌输了，今年没有赢家。”从iPhone 4时代开始做手机经销商的吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，“今年发售前价格被炒得太高，我在发售前拿到机子后，同行们都将14 Pro Max紫色款的溢价定在3000元左右，超高利润唤起了黄牛们的赌性。”吕樊拿到的第一批14 Pro，绝大部分被加价1500元以上的黄牛们“抢”走了，“没办法，他们给的太多了”。首日与发售3日后价格对比  图源：吕樊提供吕樊长年跟黄牛打交道，他将黄牛党分为高中低三个层级。最低层级的是跟风的新手，这些人今年赔得最惨。中级的自己有团队，能以原价抢购到手机。高级黄牛则能够先人一步，在发售前便已从销商手中订到货。按照今年的行情，只有高级黄牛才有机会小赚一笔。从经销商手中直接预订了一批新机的李楠，是小赚一笔的幸运儿之一。但在他看来，“对于苹果这种产品来说，小赚就是亏。”李楠告诉雪豹财经社，他每次订货前，都会在客户群和个人好友那里收到预订单，以此来确定进货数量。但今年预订的客户明显减少，“起码少了一大半”。曾不惜加价购买苹果新机的忠实客户今年冷静了许多，他们不再热忱的理由大多指向对iPhone 14缺乏创新的诟病。有客户告诉李楠，“我不觉得率先拿到一款与我手中iPhone 13极其相似的手机，有什么炫耀的价值。”果粉冷静，黄牛的钱包必然缩水。李楠今年赚了六位数，只有往年的1/3，但在黄牛党中已经算是佼佼者。他告诉雪豹财经社，今年的市场注定赚少赔多，有的同行已经亏了四五十万元。散户背刺黄牛“谢谢你，黄牛君。”苹果新机开售首日晚上，刘威发表了这样一条朋友圈。当天，他买到两台iPhone 14 Pro后，便被门口的黄牛拦下，每台加价1800元把手机卖给对方，赚了3600元差价。嗅到商机的刘威当晚便召集了几个同学，一起去抢购iPhone 14 Pro。在他看来，这是一桩稳赚不赔的生意。能卖给黄牛最好，卖不出去还可以14天无条件退款。他笑称，“总会有黄牛们接盘。”像刘威这样反向收割黄牛的个人散户，在网上被称为“黄牛猎手”。黄牛团队的外援中，也有人摸清了门道，开始“背刺”黄牛。叶静跃雇来排队的外援中，有两个人抢购到新机后当场“反水”，拒绝叶静跃团队代为付钱，而是自己买下手机，出门就高价转手卖给了另一波黄牛。在叶静跃看来，“我简直是在给他们打工。”吕樊眼中更高级的黄牛猎手，是苹果经销商。为了炒热市场，大经销商们在拿到手机后就对外放出消息，联合将新品价格炒到很高，并瞄定紫色iPhone 14 Pro Max为今年的“溢价王”。第一批溢价手机没有多少流到普通用户手中，而是大部分高价卖给了黄牛。以往的苹果黄牛市场就像一个漏斗。最上游的经销商拥有一部分稳定的利润和一定的溢价权。中游的黄牛通过倒买倒卖赚取差价，最下游的是急于抢先拿到新机的用户，他们是最终为高溢价买单的人。但iPhone 14的口碑翻车，让这个水面下的隐秘交易市场，变成了一个输多赢少的牌局。经销商的利润仍然相对稳定，但果粉的热情骤然降温，压力便被传导到了黄牛们身上。依旧沉浸在“一机暴利”的苹果盛宴梦中不愿醒来的黄牛，突然成了被猎手们反向收割的对象。告别黄金时代敢砸钱赌暴利的黄牛们，曾见证过苹果手机造就的巨大财富梦幻。12年前，身穿黑色毛衣、牛仔裤的乔布斯手拿iPhone 4亮相，成为智能手机历史上的里程碑，也开启了黄牛的黄金时代。“iPhone 4算是划时代的产品，市场热情的不得了，一台5000元的手机，不管任何渠道拿到，转手就是15000元卖出去。”985高校毕业的吕樊嗅到商机，做起了倒卖苹果手机的生意。当时，为了抢购苹果手机，黄牛们带着帐篷，在北京三里屯和大悦城提前48小时蹲守。作为苹果的一代神机，首批iPhone 4上市3天就售出了170万部，而且供不应求。当时，国内市场的首售时间晚了4个月左右，利用这段时间差，黄牛们赚得盆满钵满。吕樊告诉雪豹财经社，他当时发现香港的苹果店每人限购5台，于是组织了一行人坐飞机去香港排队，最大的一单赚了几十万元。“那时候稍微勤快点的黄牛团队，3个月下来赚百万都算少的。”甚至一年后iPhone 4S推出时，找黄牛买iPhone 4仍需要加价1000元。转折点发生在iPhone 8推出时，那是吕樊头一次发现苹果新机遇冷。当时已经是苹果经销商的吕樊回忆道，iPhone 8卖得不是很好，苹果门店和中关村排队的现象大幅减少，不少高价囤货的黄牛党亏了钱。也正是在这个时候，外界对苹果缺乏创新的批判甚嚣尘上。从iPhone 5到iPhone 8，苹果几代产品被吐槽外形过于相似，好比“四世同堂”，功能也没有实质性革新。被寄予厚望的iPhone X，以更冷淡的市场反应给了黄牛们一记耳光。用户对这款号称“从未有过的智能手机”并不买账，iPhone X 最得意的两个创新——全面屏和人脸识别，被认为早已不是首创。黄牛们亏钱，苹果损失更惨。iPhone X销量不佳后苹果屡次减产，股价一度暴跌7%以上，超600亿美元市值蒸发。iPhone X遇冷，苹果的创新能力被拉下神坛，黄牛们赚差价的空间日渐缩小。一台新机通常加价小几百元，与iPhone 6S之前的一机难求、动辄价格翻倍相差甚远。去年发布的iPhone 13，成了黄牛生意热潮最后的余温。彼时正值全球缺芯，苹果遭遇供应链危机。特殊时期的供需关系，让黄牛们找到了可乘之机。叶静跃事后总结道，“并不是iPhone 13多受欢迎，而是苹果在第一时间没有那么多备货，那个时间点就成了赚钱的好机会。”但iPhone 14没有这样的幸运。一方面，新机被吐槽与上一代产品几乎毫无区别，“灵动岛不灵动”，多项bug曝光，新功能屡屡翻车。另一方面，库克吸取教训，更注重iPhone 14的供应链管理，新机供货十分充足。有网友表示，Pro版本新机等半个月左右便可到货。这意味着，黄牛赚钱的土壤越来越贫瘠。盛极而衰的拐点？熬夜看完今年的新品发布会后，苹果发烧友胡艺文下定决心，今年不再找黄牛加钱抢购新机。她买过iPhone 14以外的所有iPhone机型，而且不止一次加价购买首发新机。在她看来，抢先一步晒出最新款iPhone并非炫富，而是体现一种对顶级新科技消费产品的追求，“这很极客”。但iPhone 14让她觉得，“抢这种过度相似的机型一点也不极客”。对被公认守成有余、进取不足的库克而言，这当然不是件好事。从1997年将“不同凡响”定为slogan开始，创新便被视为苹果的灵魂。在乔布斯时代，苹果曾推出不止一款开创性的产品，并凭此坐稳了科技公司的头把交椅。但自2011年库克担任CEO以来，苹果便鲜有令人眼前一亮的创新，甚至从引领者的角色逐渐沦为追随者。在销量上取得成功的iPhone 6，是苹果首次推出大屏手机，被认为步了三星等品牌的后尘。iPhone 14的灵动岛等功能，也被质疑抄袭安卓厂商。经济学家任泽平在社交平台上直言，“苹果是在吃乔布斯的老本”，甚至认为2022年是苹果盛极而衰的转折点。不可否认，从销量和公司市值来看，库克掌舵下的苹果取得了巨大的成功。部分原因在于，昔日价格高高在上的苹果手机，在定价上开始“低头”。胡艺文注意到，从iPhone 11开始，苹果手机变得“便宜起来”。一方面，iPhone 11的起售价从上一代产品iPhone XR的6499元降至5499元。另一方面，安卓阵营的旗舰机价格持续上涨，OPPO Find X2 Pro版本5999元起，小米10至尊版也要5299元起，与iPhone持平甚至更高。此后，苹果一直延续新机不涨价的策略。如今，乔布斯留下的老本仍然够苹果吃上一阵子。据Counterpoint Research数据，2022年Q2，苹果在高端智能手机市场仍占据着过半江山，以57%的市场份额创下iPhone自2007年以来的历史纪录，并将全球手机六成多的利润收入囊中。胡艺文这样的果粉也不会轻易抛弃苹果。虽然创新不足，但一年一度的硬件（主要是芯片）稳定更新、软件系统稳定，仍对他们有巨大的吸引力。换句话说，乔布斯时代创造的巨大势能，足以让在创新方面略显平庸的苹果帝国靠惯性继续向前滑行。但随着苹果光环褪色，知秋的寒蝉已经隐隐嗅到寒意，感知到创新乏力的后果。对于靠苹果吃饭的手机经销商吕樊而言，苹果仍然是他营收的大头，“黄牛的失败与否，不影响这一切，太阳照常升起”。靠稀缺性和时间差赚钱的黄牛们则无暇为此悲春伤秋。马不停蹄地奔赴下一个战场，赚取更多利润，才是他们的当务之急。叶静跃已全力转战华为Mate 50。他告诉雪豹财经社，华为新机溢价水平一直比较稳定，目前最低配都要加价1000元，最稀有的保时捷款已被炒到了2.5万元以上，较原价（12999元）翻了近一倍。对于仍站在金字塔尖的全球顶级软硬件一体的苹果公司而言，iPhone 14不可能成为绝唱。但黄牛们暴富梦的终章，或许将为苹果躺赢的终结，奏响一段前奏。（本文人物均为化名）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911264962,"gmtCreate":1664227237756,"gmtModify":1676537411407,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911264962","repostId":"1123049781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123049781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664191062,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123049781?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-26 19:17","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123049781","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一历史时刻的回声将久久盘旋在威斯敏斯特的上空。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>On Friday, the British government introduced a £45bn tax cut, the most aggressive in the country since 1972, including scrapping plans to raise corporation tax to 25%, removing the top rate of 45%, slashing stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the subsidy and tax cuts package will cost the UK government more than £150bn over the next few years,<b>And this will be largely supported by debt issuance – the government said it would borrow an additional £72.4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Fiscal Research Institute, a British think tank)</p><p>As Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or could only, as the opposition Labour Party claimed – \"only bring the benefits to those already rich\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"biggest tax cuts in 50 years\", without even making any effort to boost public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing huge amounts of money at increasingly high interest rates, allowing government debt to rise unsustainably</b>。 It marked a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy was shaped, to the point where some long-serving cabinet ministers feared a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell back-to-back. But the British government remained unmoved, and even planned to continue to increase its weight. The deputy finance minister stressed that UK government bonds are currently paid at roughly the same rate as the US and that \"the reason we implemented tax cuts is not to deal with intraday fluctuations in the currency market\".</p><p>It is a gamble between Britain and history, and the future, not only on the success of the new scheme itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Clearly, this is a growth plan that is completely at odds with the traditional policy thinking of the UK for a long time.</p><p>The British government's conventional belief for decades has been that tax cuts should primarily benefit the relatively poor, and that borrowing should not be a regular government spending under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kovoten reversed years of cautious approach to tax reform by many of his previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But instead, Kovoten said:</p><p>In this country, we have been indulging in a debate about redistribution for far too long. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how it is taxed and spent. Kovoten has long advocated low tax policies. He said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that prosperity can be achieved through taxation, and to ignore the tax rate at a 70-year high, let alone what the ultimate consequences will be. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was in rate hike to curb inflation and cut taxes to save the economy deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis was \"absolutely right\".</p><p>Within minutes of Coworten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of Westminster Palace in shock.<b>Supporters rallied in a rare sense of unity as a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break from traditional policy orientations.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\" that, if it goes wrong, will have unexpected consequences.</p><p>The repeat of another kind of history cannot be avoided</p><p>It is hard not to conjure up the 1972 Budget introduced by former UK Treasury Secretary Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber similarly introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, only to lead to an overheating economy, soaring inflation, and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative teaching material for managing the economy. Then, as expected, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>The analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effects, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government may not have avoided the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cuts with those introduced under Margaret Thatcher in 1988: Although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also soared inflation, prompting the Bank of England to adjust interest rates to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly increased the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy after independence in 1997, and today the Treasury is responsible only for fiscal policy-taxes and spending. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such massive tax cuts by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will treat inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative lawmakers have criticized Truss's policies for being similar to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, Reagan accumulated a lot of debt while in office to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is much less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate move in despair</p><p>At present, Britain's economic growth is sluggish, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, people's cost of living has risen sharply. Britain's inflation rate has remained high since last winter, hitting 40-year highs from April to July this year. Many market analysts agree that the UK economy will plunge into recession before the end of the year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is put into an economy where inflation is still high. Only if UK economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the economic prospects of Britain very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University School of Economics, believes that,<b>This gloomy economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>Due to the long duration of Brexit, the UK and the EU are still running in and connecting, and the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation. The UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortage in the UK market, serious energy crisis and other problems, and people's livelihood is difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, went out of his way to stress that his idea for Brexit was not to use the newfound \"freedom\" to cut regulations massively.</p><p>But Kovoten and Truss are very different from their views. They believe that,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow the UK to take a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations – many of which come from right here in the EU.</b></p><p>Follow the \"Iron Lady\", do you imitate others?</p><p>Truss said the other day that she wants to build a Britain where people from all over the world can show their talents, and to usher in a dynamic decade through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, the bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss had made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were one of the best ways to boost economic growth. Only the implementation of such a deterrent strategy is central to achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>Over the past eight years of dormancy, Truss has argued that most previous prime ministers have been too \"timid\" to shy away from the core Tory values that have the merit of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But acting so quickly and implementing such massive tax cuts was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>On the campaign trail in July, when asked \"who is the most admired Tory prime minister\", Truss replied categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her multiple policy orientations are seen as moving closer to Thatcher – embracing free markets and \"small government,\" simplifying taxes, \"keen\" to fight trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic woes facing Britain at this time are much the same as when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism\".</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only had a clear and coherent political vision, but also had the wisdom and political ability to translate relevant vision into clear policy, which Truss did not possess. The British media argued that Truss's impersonation of Mrs Thatcher was engaging in a \"political role-play\" only to use Mrs Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPressing on the future of the economy, Britain opens a \"fatal gamble\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-26 19:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>The British government is betting on the future of the British economy.</p><p>On Friday, the British government introduced a £45bn tax cut, the most aggressive in the country since 1972, including scrapping plans to raise corporation tax to 25%, removing the top rate of 45%, slashing stamp duty and more.</p><p>Analysts expect the subsidy and tax cuts package will cost the UK government more than £150bn over the next few years,<b>And this will be largely supported by debt issuance – the government said it would borrow an additional £72.4bn to fund the scheme.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08aebd46aba94ce07021d5989f4bcea7\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: Fiscal Research Institute, a British think tank)</p><p>As Kwasi Kwarteng, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, cheered that the UK economy was about to enter a \"new era\", there were doubts about whether this dramatic shift in UK fiscal policy would restart growth as expected, or could only, as the opposition Labour Party claimed – \"only bring the benefits to those already rich\".</p><p>Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a British think tank, believes that,<b>The so-called \"biggest tax cuts in 50 years\", without even making any effort to boost public finances; Instead, the plan appears to be about borrowing huge amounts of money at increasingly high interest rates, allowing government debt to rise unsustainably</b>。 It marked a dramatic change in the direction in which economic policy was shaped, to the point where some long-serving cabinet ministers feared a hit to the economy.</p><p>The market reacted quickly: the pound plunged to a 37-year low on Monday, and the price of the British Treasury Bond fell back-to-back. But the British government remained unmoved, and even planned to continue to increase its weight. The deputy finance minister stressed that UK government bonds are currently paid at roughly the same rate as the US and that \"the reason we implemented tax cuts is not to deal with intraday fluctuations in the currency market\".</p><p>It is a gamble between Britain and history, and the future, not only on the success of the new scheme itself, but also on the economic prospects of Britain as a whole.</p><p>Gambling against history, the traditional policy orientation is gradually drifting away</p><p>Clearly, this is a growth plan that is completely at odds with the traditional policy thinking of the UK for a long time.</p><p>The British government's conventional belief for decades has been that tax cuts should primarily benefit the relatively poor, and that borrowing should not be a regular government spending under normal circumstances.</p><p><b>Mr Kovoten reversed years of cautious approach to tax reform by many of his previous chancellors</b>These chancellors insisted on a progressive tax system. But instead, Kovoten said:</p><p>In this country, we have been indulging in a debate about redistribution for far too long. Now we need to focus on growth, not just how it is taxed and spent. Kovoten has long advocated low tax policies. He said: \"It is completely unsustainable to think that prosperity can be achieved through taxation, and to ignore the tax rate at a 70-year high, let alone what the ultimate consequences will be. The real danger lies in low growth, and the fundamental solution lies in economic growth.\" He said that although the Bank of England was in rate hike to curb inflation and cut taxes to save the economy deeply affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis was \"absolutely right\".</p><p>Within minutes of Coworten's statement in the House of Commons, Tory MPs paced the corridors of Westminster Palace in shock.<b>Supporters rallied in a rare sense of unity as a precious moment to \"break history\" and mark a break from traditional policy orientations.</b></p><p>Critics in the Conservative Party are worried that the new Prime Minister Truss is playing a dangerous \"Russian roulette\" that, if it goes wrong, will have unexpected consequences.</p><p>The repeat of another kind of history cannot be avoided</p><p>It is hard not to conjure up the 1972 Budget introduced by former UK Treasury Secretary Anthony Barber. Anthony Barber similarly introduced massive unfunded tax cuts at the time, only to lead to an overheating economy, soaring inflation, and a subsequent recession.</p><p>Anthony Barber was criticized for this, and Ted Heath, then British Prime Minister, became a negative teaching material for managing the economy. Then, as expected, Heath lost the February 1974 election.</p><p>The analysis generally believes that,<b>The 1972 Budget ended in disaster because of its severe inflationary effects, so the tax cuts introduced by the British government may not have avoided the same fate. Analysts also compared the British government's tax cuts with those introduced under Margaret Thatcher in 1988: Although the 1988 Budget boosted the economy, it also soared inflation, prompting the Bank of England to adjust interest rates to a maximum of 15% in 1989, which greatly increased the volatility of the economy.</b></p><p>But there is still a big difference between the two: the Bank of England has only exercised monetary policy after independence in 1997, and today the Treasury is responsible only for fiscal policy-taxes and spending. This means that the Bank of England can respond to such massive tax cuts by constantly tightening liquidity and rate hike. The Bank of England has signaled that it will treat inflation as a \"dragon\" to be slaughtered.</p><p>Separately, some Conservative lawmakers have criticized Truss's policies for being similar to former U.S. President Ronald Reagan. In the 1980s, Reagan accumulated a lot of debt while in office to fund his tax cuts.<b>The difference is that, unlike the pound, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning the US is much less likely to have trouble finding buyers for its debt.</b></p><p>Gambling against the future, a desperate move in despair</p><p>At present, Britain's economic growth is sluggish, coupled with the energy crisis and severe inflation, people's cost of living has risen sharply. Britain's inflation rate has remained high since last winter, hitting 40-year highs from April to July this year. Many market analysts agree that the UK economy will plunge into recession before the end of the year.</p><p>Paul Johnson believes that such a large-scale government debt is simply a \"big gamble\". Money is put into an economy where inflation is still high. Only if UK economic growth \"can really keep up\" can the situation be \"controllable\".</p><p>In addition, crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the death of the Queen of England have also made the economic prospects of Britain very bleak. According to the Global Times, Ding Chun, a professor at the Institute of World Economics at Fudan University School of Economics, believes that,<b>This gloomy economic outlook is mainly related to the long \"Brexit\".</b>Due to the long duration of Brexit, the UK and the EU are still running in and connecting, and the overall world economy is facing the impact of stagflation. The UK is involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, resulting in labor shortage in the UK market, serious energy crisis and other problems, and people's livelihood is difficult.</p><p>Dominic Cummings, the mastermind of the Brexit campaign, went out of his way to stress that his idea for Brexit was not to use the newfound \"freedom\" to cut regulations massively.</p><p>But Kovoten and Truss are very different from their views. They believe that,<b>The whole point of Brexit is to allow the UK to take a different economic path. That just means cutting taxes and repealing regulations – many of which come from right here in the EU.</b></p><p>Follow the \"Iron Lady\", do you imitate others?</p><p>Truss said the other day that she wants to build a Britain where people from all over the world can show their talents, and to usher in a dynamic decade through economic growth.</p><p>From her perspective, the bold plan is both \"unexpected\" and \"reasonable\": Truss had made it clear during the campaign that she believed tax cuts were one of the best ways to boost economic growth. Only the implementation of such a deterrent strategy is central to achieving political and economic success.</p><p><b>Over the past eight years of dormancy, Truss has argued that most previous prime ministers have been too \"timid\" to shy away from the core Tory values that have the merit of allowing the economy to grow freely. Therefore, Truss has been waiting for this moment for years.</b></p><p>But acting so quickly and implementing such massive tax cuts was a huge shock to her supporters and critics alike.</p><p>On the campaign trail in July, when asked \"who is the most admired Tory prime minister\", Truss replied categorically: Margaret Thatcher. Her multiple policy orientations are seen as moving closer to Thatcher – embracing free markets and \"small government,\" simplifying taxes, \"keen\" to fight trade unions, and so on.</p><p><b>The economic woes facing Britain at this time are much the same as when Margaret Thatcher came to power. But many experts believe Truss's plan to lower taxes by increasing Treasury Bond is not \"Thatcherism\".</b></p><p>According to the Global Times, Matthew Johnson, a professor of political science at Northumbria University in the UK, said that Mrs. Thatcher not only had a clear and coherent political vision, but also had the wisdom and political ability to translate relevant vision into clear policy, which Truss did not possess. The British media argued that Truss's impersonation of Mrs Thatcher was engaging in a \"political role-play\" only to use Mrs Thatcher's political legacy to gain more support within the Conservative Party.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60779518d8b54ddaf209f95e2dfa6d12","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671179","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1123049781","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳英国政府押上了英国经济的未来。上周五，英国政府出台了一项规模达450亿英镑的减税措施，是自1972年以来英国最激进的减税方案，包括取消将公司税上调至25%的计划、取消45%的最高税率、大幅削减印花税等等。分析人士预计，补贴和减税一揽子计划将使英国政府在未来几年花费超过1500亿英镑，而这将主要由发债支持——政府表示将额外借入724亿英镑来为该计划提供资金。（来源：英国智库财政研究所）在英国财政大臣夸西·科沃滕（Kwasi Kwarteng）为英国经济即将进入“新时代”欢呼之际，人们却怀疑，英国财政政策这一戏剧性的转变是否会像预期的那样重启经济增长，或者只能像反对党工党声称的那样——“只把好处带给那些已经很富有的人”。英国智库财政研究所所长 Paul Johnson 认为，所谓“50年来规模最大的减税计划”，甚至没有做出任何努力来增加公共财政；相反，该计划似乎是要以越来越高的利率借入大量资金，让政府债务不可持续地增加。这标志着经济政策的制定方向发生了巨大变化，以至于一些任职时间较长的内阁部长担心经济受到打击。市场迅速做出了反应：英镑汇率周一暴跌至37年的低点，英国国债价格连续下挫。但英国政府岿然不动，甚至打算继续加码。英国副财长强调英国政府债券的支付利率目前与美国大致相同，并且“我们实施减税的原因不是为了应对汇市盘中的波动”。这是一场英国与历史、与未来的赌博，押注的不仅是新计划能否成功本身，还有整个英国的经济前景。与历史对赌，传统政策取向渐行渐远显然，这是一项完全与英国长期传统政策思维相悖的增长计划。英国政府几十年来的传统观念是，减税应主要惠及相对贫困的群体，并且在正常情况下不应将借款作为政府的日常支出。科沃滕一改诸多前任财政大臣多年来对税收改革小心翼翼的态度，这些财政大臣坚持主张累进税制。但科沃滕却表示：在这个国家，我们沉溺于一场关于再分配的争论已经太久了。现在我们需要关注增长，而不仅仅是如何征税和支出。长期以来，科沃滕一直主张低税政策，他说：“认为可以通过征税实现繁荣发展，而对处于70年高位的税率水平置之不理，这种想法才是完全不可持续的，更不知最终会带来怎样的后果。真正的危险在于低增长，根本的解决方式在于经济增长。”他表示，尽管英国央行在加息以抑制通胀，减税以拯救深受新冠疫情和能源危机影响的经济“一点儿都没错”。在科沃滕在下议院发表声明后的几分钟内，保守党议员们震惊地在威斯敏斯特宫的走廊里踱步。支持者们难得地团结一致了起来，认为这是一个“打破历史”的珍贵时刻，标志着与传统政策取向的决裂。保守党中的批评人士则十分担心新任首相特拉斯在进行一场危险的“俄罗斯轮盘赌”，一旦出了差错，将会带来始料未及的后果。无法避免另一种历史的重演这很难不让人联想到前英国财政部长 Anthony Barber 在1972年出台的预算案。Anthony Barber 当时同样推出了大规模的无资金支持的减税措施，却导致了经济过热、通胀飙升以及随之而来的经济衰退。Anthony Barber 因此被人诟病，而时任英国首相的 Ted Heath 也成为了管理经济的反面教材。后来，Heath 果然在1974年2月的选举中落败。分析普遍认为，1972年的预算案最终以灾难收场也是因为其严重的通胀效应，因此此次英国政府推出的减税措施可能也无法避免相同的命运。分析人士还将英国政府此次减税方案与1988年撒切尔夫人执政时期推出的减税措施进行了对比：尽管1988年预算案提振了经济，但也令通胀飙升，促使英国央行在1989年将利率最高调整至了15%，使经济的波动性大大加剧。但二者之间仍有一个很大的区别：英国央行自1997年独立后才行使货币政策，如今的财政部只负责财政政策——税收和支出。这意味着，英国央行可以通过不断收紧流动性和加息对如此大规模的减税计划做出应对。英国央行已经发出信号，会将通胀视为一条待屠宰的“恶龙”。另外，一些保守党议员批评特拉斯的政策与前美国总统罗纳德·里根相似。上世纪80年代，里根在任时积累了大量债务，为其减税计划提供资金。不同之处在于，与英镑不同，美元是全球储备货币，这意味着美国为其债务寻找买家时遇到困难的可能性要小得多。与未来对赌，绝望中的孤注一掷目前，英国经济增长乏力，加上能源危机和严重通胀，民众生活成本陡增。去年冬天以来，英国通胀率居高不下，今年4月至7月已接连创下40年来新高。许多市场分析师都认为，英国经济将在今年年底前陷入衰退。Paul Johnson 认为，如此大规模的政府负债简直就是一次“大赌博”，钱被投进一个通胀仍然高企的经济里，只有英国经济增长“真的能跟上”，局面才是“可控的”。另外，俄乌冲突和英国女王去世等危机也使得英国经济前景十分黯淡。据环球时报报道，复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所教授丁纯认为，这种经济前景的黯淡主要跟漫长的“脱欧”有关系。由于脱欧时间持续较长，英国跟欧盟仍然还在磨合、衔接中，加上整体世界经济面临滞胀的冲击，英国卷入俄乌冲突，造成英国市场劳动力短缺、能源危机严重等问题，民生维艰。脱欧运动的策划者多米尼克·卡明斯不厌其烦地强调，他对英国退欧的想法并不是利用新获得的“自由”来大规模削减法规。但科沃滕和特拉斯与其观点截然不同。他们认为，脱欧的全部意义就是在于允许英国走上一条不同的经济道路。这正意味着削减税收和废除法规——其中许多法规就来自欧盟。追随“铁娘子”，是否东施效颦？特拉斯在前几日称，她要建设一个世界各地的人都能施展才能的英国，要通过经济增长使英国迎来充满活力的十年。从她的视角来看，这一大胆的计划既在“意料之外”，又在“情理之中”：特拉斯在竞选期间曾明确表示，她认为减税是促进经济增长的最佳方式之一。只有实施如此具有威慑力的策略，才是实现政治和经济成功的核心。在过去蛰伏的八年里，特拉斯认为大多数前任首相都太过“胆小”，对保守党的核心价值观避之不及，而这些价值观的优点在于让经济得以自由发展。因此，特拉斯已经为这一刻等候多年。但如此迅速地采取行动并实施如此大规模的减税，对她的支持者和批评者来说都是一种巨大的冲击。在7月的竞选活动中，在被问及“最敬仰的保守党首相是谁”时，特拉斯斩钉截铁地回答称：玛格丽特·撒切尔。她的多种政策取向都被认为是在向撒切尔夫人靠拢——拥护自由市场和“小政府”、简化税收制度、“热衷于”与工会斗争等等。英国此时面临的经济困境，很像当年撒切尔夫人上台时的情况。但很多专家认为，特拉斯通过增加国债以降低税收的计划并不是“撒切尔主义”。据环球时报报道，英国诺森比亚大学政治学教授马修·约翰逊表示，撒切尔夫人不仅拥有清晰且连贯的政治愿景，而且其智慧和政治能力能将相关愿景转化为清晰的政策，而特拉斯不具备这样的素质。英国媒体认为，特拉斯对撒切尔夫人的模仿是在进行“政治角色扮演”，目的只是利用撒切尔夫人的政治遗产在保守党内部获得更多支持。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913668659,"gmtCreate":1663981873172,"gmtModify":1676537373995,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913668659","repostId":"1123410633","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123410633","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663932651,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123410633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-23 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Premarket | What Happened? Stocks, crude oil, gold accelerate decline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123410633","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23rd, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs Finally Flipped Long! Sharply lowered U.S. stock price targets, expecting another 4% drop before year end</b></a><b></b></p><p>EST on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Lowered the year-end price target of the S&P 500 to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp shift in the upward outlook for interest rates will drag down the valuation of U.S. stocks. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks were lower before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruise Line</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metal plate of U.S. stocks fell generally before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Coldale Mining</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Mining</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>fell by more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks fell generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, after denying reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>According to the previous research report, XPeng new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage over its peers, and if the competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it was rumored that many potential buyers were considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Premarket | What Happened? Stocks, crude oil, gold accelerate decline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPremarket | What Happened? Stocks, crude oil, gold accelerate decline\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-23 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 23rd, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, the Dow futures fell by 1.27%; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.53%; S&P 500 futures fell 1.4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82dc7cba8503c73f87d5a88c04c2cb7\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"187\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2269623433\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Goldman Sachs Finally Flipped Long! Sharply lowered U.S. stock price targets, expecting another 4% drop before year end</b></a><b></b></p><p>EST on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Lowered the year-end price target of the S&P 500 to 3,600 points from the previous forecast of 4,300 points, saying that a sharp shift in the upward outlook for interest rates will drag down the valuation of U.S. stocks. This means that Goldman Sachs expects U.S. stocks to continue to fall by more than 4% for the rest of the year.</p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>U.S. star technology stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>, AMD fell more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Both fell by more than 1%;</p><p>U.S. cruise stocks were lower before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival Cruises</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">Norwegian Cruise Line</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">Royal Caribbean Cruises</a>fell by more than 3%;</p><p>U.S. oil stocks generally fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPE\">Caron Petroleum</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APA\">Apache</a>fell more than 3%;</p><p>The precious metal plate of U.S. stocks fell generally before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">Harmony Gold</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFI\">Jintian</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">Coldale Mining</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">Hecla Mining</a>It fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">Newman Mining</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABX\">Barrick Gold</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RGLD\">Royal Gold</a>fell by more than 2%;</p><p>U.S. blockchain concept stocks fell generally,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>fell more than 4%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>It fell more than 8% before the market, after denying reports that it was considering withdrawing from the US market;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell more than 4% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>According to the previous research report, XPeng new car G9 has no obvious competitive advantage over its peers, and if the competition intensifies, the valuation will be under pressure;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CANO\">Cano Health</a>It rose nearly 6% before the market, and it was rumored that many potential buyers were considering acquiring the company;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">Costco</a>It fell more than 3% before the market, and the gross profit margin in Q4 was 10.18%, lower than the same period last year.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes fell across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index fell 2.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>It fell 2.34%, and France's CAC40 fell 2.46%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c951740202161ae3c22fbcc97236ae7f\" tg-width=\"820\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell sharply. As of press time, WTI crude oil fell 3.47% to $80.59/barrel; Brent crude oil fell 3.06% to $87.69/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4592b98ebc328d5e44ee549ba956f61c\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7bb5558cca87f48ddb3b319066da89b\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures continued to fall, falling 1.76% to $1,651.5/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eddafb3e7260b331cb47f94d97619647\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123410633","content_text":"9月23日，美股三大股指期货全线下挫，截至发稿，道指期货跌1.27%；纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.53%；标普500指数期货跌1.4%。高盛终于多翻空！大幅下调美股目标价，预计年底前再跌4%美东时间周四，高盛将标普500指数的年底目标价从此前预测的4300点下调至3600点，称利率上行前景的大幅转变将拖累美股估值。这意味着高盛预计在今年剩余的时间内，美股还要继续下跌超4%。盘前行情美股明星科技股盘前齐挫，特斯拉、奈飞、英伟达、AMD跌超2%，苹果、亚马逊、谷歌A、微软均跌超1%；美股邮轮股盘前走低，嘉年华邮轮跌超5%，挪威邮轮跌超4%，皇家加勒比邮轮跌超3%；美股石油股盘前普跌，英国石油跌超5%，卡隆石油跌超4%，西方石油、阿帕契跌超3%；美股贵金属板块盘前普跌，哈莫尼黄金跌近8%，金田、科尔黛伦矿业跌超5%，赫克拉矿业跌超4%，纽曼矿业、巴里克黄金、皇家黄金跌超2%；美股区块链概念股普跌，Riot Blockchain跌超7%，Coinbase、Marathon Digital、MicroStrategy跌超4%；瑞士信贷盘前跌超8%，此前否认有关其考虑退出美国市场的报道；小鹏汽车盘前跌超4%，瑞银此前研报表示，小鹏新车G9与同业比无明显竞争优势，若竞争加剧估值将受压；Cano Health盘前涨近6%，传多个潜在买家考虑收购公司；好市多盘前跌逾3%，Q4毛利率10.18%，低于去年同期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至发稿，德国DAX30指数跌2.74%，英国富时100跌2.34%，法国CAC40跌2.46%。原油原油期货大幅走低，截止发稿，WTI原油跌3.47%，报80.59美元/桶；布伦特原油跌3.06%，报87.69美元/桶。黄金黄金期货持续下挫，截止发稿，跌1.76%，报1651.5美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919040011,"gmtCreate":1663716090234,"gmtModify":1676537319877,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919040011","repostId":"2269990031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2269990031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1663709371,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2269990031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 05:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign Media Headlines | \"Doom Doctor\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Room to Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269990031","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"　　在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。　　美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。　　自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。　　拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to announce the \"unemployment rate\" data or break a new high</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b><b>3. \"Dr. Doom\" expects the world to fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession at the end of the year, and the U.S. stock market may plummet by 40%</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard. Factor investment law recovers its former glory</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO bashes: Congress is too demanding and the U.S. economy is a \"two-faced\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with a historic aid deal</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be revealed \"unemployment rate\" data or will break a new high</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Fed officials will put economic warnings made in recent weeks in numeric form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment are expected to be sharply upgraded.</p><p>Officials are expected to raise their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row at a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting Tuesday.</p><p>That means the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which will likely be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>U.S. inflation has barely cooled since the last round of economic forecasts in June, prompting the Fed to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to let economic activity slow even further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Brett Ryan, a senior U.S. economist in New York, said, \"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment. We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the new Fed forecast, and they will still mention the prospect of a 'soft landing', but will also imply that there is a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that after the central bank moved forward and implemented \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history\", borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months.</p><p>\"We have taken significant steps on the road to monetary policy normalization by implementing a forward rate hike,\" Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt late Tuesday. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After emulating the Federal Reserve's rate hike by 75 basis points this month, ECB officials are debating their next move. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they disagree on how aggressive they should be as soaring energy costs push Europe toward recession.</p><p>Speaking earlier on Tuesday, Estonia's central bank governor Madis Muller urged the ECB to act \"forcefully and decisively enough\", saying that current interest rates are still nowhere close to limiting the expansion of the eurozone's economy. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday that slowing economic growth was not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will make decisions meeting by meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. \"Where rates end up, and the size of each step we take, will depend on how the inflation outlook evolves,\" she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>'Dr. Doom' expects global year-end recession into 'long and tragic' US stock market fears plunge 40%</b></p><p>Roubini, an economist who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will suffer a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of 2022 and be mired in it throughout 2023, while the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>\"The S&P 500 could fall 30% even in a flat, ordinary recession,\" Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview Monday that U.S. stocks could tumble 40% in what he expects to be a \"real hard landing.\"</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the housing bubble bursting between 2007 and 2008 earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doom\". He said people who think the U.S. will only have a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio of businesses and governments. As interest rates rise and debt service costs increase, \"a lot of institutions, residents, businesses, banks, shadow banks are going to be screwed,\" he said, \"so we'll know who's swimming naked when the time comes.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike Hit the Stock Market Hard Factor Investment Law Returns its Former Glory</b></p><p>Ten years to Hedong, ten years to Hexi. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once-revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to reclaim their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds, which trade according to some of the characteristics of stocks, such as how cheap they are, how fast they are rising, etc., have been tried and tested this year. This is known as factor investing. In contrast, actively managed hedge funds and short-term speculators failed to escape the market crash.</p><p>Extremes are reversing as historically high inflation triggers a central bank rate hike that has brought big tech-led gains to an abrupt halt.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Ultra-high-cap companies no longer dominate, and the gap between winners and losers in the S&P 500 is the biggest in more than a decade, according to the data.</p><p>All of this has inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum individual stocks is in a profitable state, and value stocks are also extending their post-pandemic return.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO bashes: Congress is too demanding and the U.S. economy is a \"two-faced\"</b></p><p>JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon took aim at \"capital requirements increases\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will talk with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup, Citigroup, and others attended a congressional hearing on consumer banking. In prepared speeches, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned of the harm of \"arbitrary increases in capital requirements\".</p><p>\"The continued increase in capital requirements for big banks in the United States poses a significant economic risk in itself, especially when it does not reflect actual risk,\" Dimon wrote. \"This is simply tying regulated banks at the wrong time, leading to their capital being constrained and not conducive to them expanding their business such as lending in a tough time for the national economy\".</p><p>JPMorgan Chase was asked in July to suspend share buybacks to meet higher capital requirements related to the results of stricter stress tests as quickly as possible. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>German government to nationalise natural gas giant Uniper in historic aid deal</b></p><p>German government plans to give gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>Injecting roughly 8 billion euros ($8 billion) of capital to nationalise the company in a historic deal while preventing the collapse of the country's energy sector.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it is finally discussing a proposal with the government, which includes an 8 billion euro capital increase, completely subscribed by the government. The German government will also buy a stake in its major shareholder, Finland's Fortum Oyj.</p><p>Uniper, Germany's biggest buyer of Russian gas, is at the heart of the energy crisis. Against the backdrop of Russian restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, the government is under pressure to act if Uniper goes bankrupt, which could affect all areas of the German economy and threaten fuel supplies.</p><p>Uniper shares rose 3%. Fortnum shares jumped 9.5% before trading in the shares was suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign Media Headlines | \"Doom Doctor\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Room to Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign Media Headlines | \"Doom Doctor\" Says US Stocks Have 40% Room to Fall\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-21 05:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>The headlines that the global financial media paid common attention to last night and this morning mainly include:</b></p><p><b>1. The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to announce the \"unemployment rate\" data or break a new high</b><b>2. European Central Bank President Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b><b>3. \"Dr. Doom\" expects the world to fall into a \"long and tragic\" recession at the end of the year, and the U.S. stock market may plummet by 40%</b><b>4. Inflation and rate hike hit the stock market hard. Factor investment law recovers its former glory</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>CEO bashes: Congress is too demanding and the U.S. economy is a \"two-faced\"</b><b>6. The German government will nationalize natural gas giant Uniper with a historic aid deal</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3640c165bbab35a063886f0264187e4a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be revealed \"unemployment rate\" data or will break a new high</b></p><p>When the dot plot is released on Wednesday, Fed officials will put economic warnings made in recent weeks in numeric form, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment are expected to be sharply upgraded.</p><p>Officials are expected to raise their benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third time in a row at a two-day policy meeting in Washington starting Tuesday.</p><p>That means the benchmark interest rate will rise to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis. The next phase of the tightening cycle will bring greater economic risks, which will likely be reflected in their revised economic forecasts.</p><p>U.S. inflation has barely cooled since the last round of economic forecasts in June, prompting the Fed to take a more aggressive stance. They are also increasingly skeptical of the relationship between unemployment and inflation, which may be part of the reason why they are now inclined to let economic activity slow even further.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Brett Ryan, a senior U.S. economist in New York, said, \"Of course, rising interest rates will have a greater impact on unemployment. We expect the unemployment rate to be close to 4.5% in the new Fed forecast, and they will still mention the prospect of a 'soft landing', but will also imply that there is a high risk of recession.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3452a796edd35bc84caa0933386c85fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: There will be more rate hike after \"moving forward\"</b></p><p>European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that after the central bank moved forward and implemented \"the fastest interest rate adjustment in our history\", borrowing costs will rise further in the coming months.</p><p>\"We have taken significant steps on the road to monetary policy normalization by implementing a forward rate hike,\" Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt late Tuesday. \"We expect further rate hike in the next few meetings.\"</p><p>After emulating the Federal Reserve's rate hike by 75 basis points this month, ECB officials are debating their next move. While they agree that further action is needed to control record inflation, they disagree on how aggressive they should be as soaring energy costs push Europe toward recession.</p><p>Speaking earlier on Tuesday, Estonia's central bank governor Madis Muller urged the ECB to act \"forcefully and decisively enough\", saying that current interest rates are still nowhere close to limiting the expansion of the eurozone's economy. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday that slowing economic growth was not enough to ease inflation.</p><p>Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will make decisions meeting by meeting, and any action will depend on future economic data. \"Where rates end up, and the size of each step we take, will depend on how the inflation outlook evolves,\" she said.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ba01422e545fe48e009ec9973e1980f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>'Dr. Doom' expects global year-end recession into 'long and tragic' US stock market fears plunge 40%</b></p><p>Roubini, an economist who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, believes that the United States and the world will suffer a \"long and tragic\" recession by the end of 2022 and be mired in it throughout 2023, while the S&P 500 index will also fall sharply.</p><p>\"The S&P 500 could fall 30% even in a flat, ordinary recession,\" Roubini, chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, said in an interview Monday that U.S. stocks could tumble 40% in what he expects to be a \"real hard landing.\"</p><p>Roubini's foresight of the housing bubble bursting between 2007 and 2008 earned him the nickname \"Dr. Doom\". He said people who think the U.S. will only have a shallow recession should look at the high debt ratio of businesses and governments. As interest rates rise and debt service costs increase, \"a lot of institutions, residents, businesses, banks, shadow banks are going to be screwed,\" he said, \"so we'll know who's swimming naked when the time comes.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6243978df13130ee8cdbe679db71b0f4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Inflation and rate hike Hit the Stock Market Hard Factor Investment Law Returns its Former Glory</b></p><p>Ten years to Hedong, ten years to Hexi. The stock market is experiencing its worst year since the global financial crisis, giving once-revolutionary quantitative investors a chance to reclaim their former glory and wash away the humiliation they suffered in the era of cheap money.</p><p>Machine-driven funds, which trade according to some of the characteristics of stocks, such as how cheap they are, how fast they are rising, etc., have been tried and tested this year. This is known as factor investing. In contrast, actively managed hedge funds and short-term speculators failed to escape the market crash.</p><p>Extremes are reversing as historically high inflation triggers a central bank rate hike that has brought big tech-led gains to an abrupt halt.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Ultra-high-cap companies no longer dominate, and the gap between winners and losers in the S&P 500 is the biggest in more than a decade, according to the data.</p><p>All of this has inspired rules-based funds. The strategy of buying low-volatility or high-momentum individual stocks is in a profitable state, and value stocks are also extending their post-pandemic return.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>JPMorgan Chase CEO bashes: Congress is too demanding and the U.S. economy is a \"two-faced\"</b></p><p>JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon took aim at \"capital requirements increases\" ahead of two congressional hearings this week.</p><p>This Wednesday and Thursday, Dimon will talk with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>The heads of major banks such as Citigroup, Citigroup, and others attended a congressional hearing on consumer banking. In prepared speeches, he praised his company's role in the global economy and warned of the harm of \"arbitrary increases in capital requirements\".</p><p>\"The continued increase in capital requirements for big banks in the United States poses a significant economic risk in itself, especially when it does not reflect actual risk,\" Dimon wrote. \"This is simply tying regulated banks at the wrong time, leading to their capital being constrained and not conducive to them expanding their business such as lending in a tough time for the national economy\".</p><p>JPMorgan Chase was asked in July to suspend share buybacks to meet higher capital requirements related to the results of stricter stress tests as quickly as possible. Dimon has long criticized the increase in capital requirements.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8458711ed01911a4418e3128dedcc4d0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>German government to nationalise natural gas giant Uniper in historic aid deal</b></p><p>German government plans to give gas giants<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNPPY\">Uniper SE</a>Injecting roughly 8 billion euros ($8 billion) of capital to nationalise the company in a historic deal while preventing the collapse of the country's energy sector.</p><p>Uniper confirmed on Tuesday that it is finally discussing a proposal with the government, which includes an 8 billion euro capital increase, completely subscribed by the government. The German government will also buy a stake in its major shareholder, Finland's Fortum Oyj.</p><p>Uniper, Germany's biggest buyer of Russian gas, is at the heart of the energy crisis. Against the backdrop of Russian restrictions on energy supplies to Europe, the government is under pressure to act if Uniper goes bankrupt, which could affect all areas of the German economy and threaten fuel supplies.</p><p>Uniper shares rose 3%. Fortnum shares jumped 9.5% before trading in the shares was suspended by the exchange.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7ed24c5e4b57d9d055660c38e5e736b","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2022-09-21/doc-imqmmtha8114555.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2269990031","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 2、欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息3、“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%4、通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光5、摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”6、德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化美联储经济预测即将揭晓 “失业率”数据或将破新高 在周三公布点阵图时，美联储官员将把近几周来所做的经济预警以数字形式表现出来，预计对利率和失业率的预测将会大幅上调。美联储周二起在华盛顿举行为期两天的政策会议，外界预期官员们将连续第三次上调基准利率75基点。这意味着基准利率将升至2008年金融危机前以来的最高水平。紧缩周期的下一阶段将带来更大的经济风险，这可能会在他们的修订后的经济预测中得到反映。自6月上一轮经济预测公布以来，美国通胀几乎没有降温，这促使美联储采取了更加激进的立场。他们也越来越怀疑失业率和通胀率之间的关系，这可能是他们现在倾向于让经济活动进一步放缓的部分原因。德意志银行驻纽约高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan表示，“当然，利率上升将对失业产生更大的影响。我们预计在美联储的新预测中，失业率将接近4.5%，他们仍然会提到‘软着陆’前景，但也会暗示其中有很高的经济衰退风险。”欧洲央行行长拉加德：“靠前发力”之后还会有更多加息欧洲央行行长拉加德称，在央行靠前发力、实施了“我们历史上最快的利率调整”之后，借贷成本在未来数月还将进一步上升。“我们在货币政策正常化的道路上迈出了重大步伐，实施了靠前加息，”拉加德周二晚间在法兰克福发表演讲称。“我们预计在接下来的几次会议上会进一步加息。”在本月效仿美联储加息75个基点之后，欧洲央行官员正在激辩下一步行动。虽然他们同意需要采取进一步行动来控制创纪录的通胀，但随着能源成本飙升推动欧洲走向经济衰退，他们对应该多激进的问题存在分歧。爱沙尼亚央行行长Madis Muller周二早些时候发表讲话，敦促欧洲央行采取“足够有力和果断”的行动，称当前的利率仍远不到限制欧元区经济扩张的水平。欧洲央行副行长Luis de Guindos周一表示，经济增长放缓不足以缓解通胀。拉加德重申，欧洲央行将逐次会议作出决定，任何行动都将取决于未来的经济数据。“利率最终落在何处，以及我们每一步的规模，将取决于通胀前景如何演变，”她说。“末日博士”预计全球年底陷入“漫长惨烈”衰退 美国股市恐暴跌40%曾准确预测到2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁比尼认为，美国和全球将在2022年底遭遇“漫长而惨烈”的衰退并在整个2023年都深陷其中，而标普500指数也会大幅下跌。“即使在平淡的普通衰退中标普500指数也可能下跌30%，” Roubini Macro Associates董事长兼首席执行官鲁比尼周一接受采访时表示，在他预计的“真正硬着陆”中，美股可能会重挫40%。鲁比尼对2007年至2008年房地产泡沫破灭的预见使他获得了“末日博士”的绰号。他表示，认为美国只会浅衰退的人应该看看企业和政府的高负债比。随着利率上升和偿债成本增加，“许多机构、居民、企业、银行、影子银行都会完蛋，” 他说，“所以我们到时候就知道谁在裸泳了。”通胀与加息重创股市 因子投资法找回昔日荣光十年河东，十年河西。股市正在经历全球金融危机以来最糟糕的一年，让曾经革命性的量化投资者有机会找回昔日的荣光，一洗他们在廉价货币时代遭受的屈辱。机器驱动的基金依据股票的一些特质（例如廉价程度、上涨速度等）进行交易操作，今年屡试不爽。这就是所谓的因子投资。相比之下，主动管理的对冲基金和短线炒家都没能躲开市场大跌。随着历史性的高通胀引发央行加息，导致大型科技股领涨的格局戛然而止，极端行情正在逆转。标普全球的数据显示，超高市值公司不再独领风骚，标普500指数成份股赢家和输家的差距也达到十多年来的最大。所有这一切都激发了基于规则的基金。买入低波动或高动量个股的策略处于盈利状态，价值股也正在延续疫后的回归。摩根大通CEO抨击：国会要求太苛刻 美国经济是个“两面派”摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在本周两场国会听证会举行前将矛头指向了“资本要求提高”一事。本周三和周四，戴蒙将与美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团等主要银行的掌门人一起出席有关消费者银行业务的国会听证会。在事先准备好的讲稿中，他称赞自己的公司在全球经济中发挥的作用，并警告说“任意增加资本要求”会带来伤害。“美国对大银行持续提高资本金要求本身就构成了重大经济风险，特别是在没有反映实际风险的情况下，” Dimon写道。 “这根本是在错误的时间束缚了受监管的银行，导致它们的资本受到限制，在国家经济艰困时期不利于他们扩大放贷等业务”。摩根大通7月被要求暂停股票回购，以尽快满足与更严格压力测试结果相关的更高资本要求。戴蒙长期以来都对资本要求的提高颇有诟病。德国政府将以历史性援助协议把天然气巨头Uniper国有化德国政府计划向天然气巨头Uniper SE注入大约80亿欧元（80亿美元）资本，以历史性的协议将该公司国有化，同时防止该国能源行业崩溃。Uniper周二证实，在与政府最终商讨一份方案，方案包括80亿欧元的增资，完全由政府认购。德国政府还将购入其主要股东芬兰Fortum Oyj的股份。Uniper是德国国内俄罗斯天然气的最大买家，处在能源危机的核心。在俄罗斯限制对欧洲的能源供应这一背景下，如果Uniper破产，可能对德国经济的各个领域产生波及，并可能威胁燃料供应，因此政府面临行动压力。Uniper股价上涨3%。Fortnum股价跃升9.5%，随后股票的交易被交易所暂停。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919089860,"gmtCreate":1663713322051,"gmtModify":1676537318749,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919089860","repostId":"1159422659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159422659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663677204,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159422659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 20:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159422659","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes fell together! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>There seems to be no suspense about the rate hike decision on Wednesday. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is about 20% probability that it will be 100 basis points, which can be ignored). Powell will definitely follow the expectations of the market. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%, which is basically the same as the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to climb after rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell's or Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), and will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as the futures market predicts?</p><p>Those who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic of being less confident. His lack of confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are inferior to those of his former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he encountered after taking office bullied him, and (3) he encountered the new crown epidemic that has not happened in a century and the high inflation that has not happened in decades. The unconfident Powell liked to quote history when he was at work, and from time to time he mentioned \"19xx\" between his words.</p><p>It is good to like to study history, especially for investing in this equal \"experience + innovation\" thing, and it is a very good habit to study history. Quantitative foundation \"backtest\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is right to look at history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout The history of \"Inflation\" in The United States, there is a period of history that has a Great impact on Powell at present, that is, The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in The United States for 17 years from 1865 to 1882. After World War II, inflation in the United States will basically fall after it appears. Only during this period, the United States experienced high inflation for 17 years. In those 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic downturns, two energy crises, and price controls that only exist in times of war. This period was also the biggest failure of U.S. macroeconomic policy (the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period \"(Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this history has a huge impact on Powell now? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell admired the former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker so much that he even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress inflation in the United States for 17 years. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the United States economy, inflation also dropped.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve, the Phillips curve, we can only account for one end between the two targets of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is asked to go down, then unemployment will be high. The curve looks like this.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, during the period of great inflation, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to rise, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve will not be a fixed curve, but rather a curve that will move up and down. High inflation has become the main target for the Fed to deal with. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the Fed's goal has always been to improve employment. However, at present, employment is saturated and inflation is high, so the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, some are man-made, and there are also economic natural laws, which will not be expanded here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation remains high for longer, the less likely it will be to fall back, creating a negative feedback</b>。 From the micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; If the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the rent price\". Everyone expects that inflation will continue, and then inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understood this truth, so he repeatedly said that he wanted to eliminate social inflation expectations.</p><p>For Powell, the current goal is to press down inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never care about the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because a rise in the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, so will the company's capital expenditure). Therefore, whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Fed canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I've said it for several years), the purpose is not to give the market any hope of \"the end of rate hike\", and don't want everyone to see the dot plot and say \"the Fed will stop with 100 basis points\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dismiss any expectation that rate hike will come to an end-many people see that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motive behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year inflation period in the United States, inflation rose and fell many times. The lowest point of the decline once reached 3.7%, but then inflation rose rapidly. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but Powell will not dare to relax the rate hike, let alone cut interest rates, even if inflation falls to 3.7% in order to avoid similar high inflation this time.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn pigeon is false.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market comments | Where is the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market comments | Where is the end of the current rate hike of the Federal Reserve?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-20 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1121095051\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Pre-market | The three major futures indexes fell together! Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to rate hike 4 more times</b></a><b></b></p><p>There seems to be no suspense about the rate hike decision on Wednesday. From the perspective of the futures market, it is basically 75 basis points (there is about 20% probability that it will be 100 basis points, which can be ignored). Powell will definitely follow the expectations of the market. After this rate hike, the overnight interest rate in the United States will enter the range of 3%-3.25%, which is basically the same as the current 10-year interest rate. Even if the 10-year interest rate continues to climb after rate hike, the curve will definitely be flatter.</p><p>Now we need to think about another question, what is the end point of Powell's or Fed's rate hike (4%? Or 5%?), and will the Fed stop rate hike or even start cutting interest rates by the beginning of next year, as the futures market predicts?</p><p>Those who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he has a characteristic of being less confident. His lack of confidence comes from three aspects: (1) his academic qualifications are inferior to those of his former Federal Reserve chairman, (2) the first president he encountered after taking office bullied him, and (3) he encountered the new crown epidemic that has not happened in a century and the high inflation that has not happened in decades. The unconfident Powell liked to quote history when he was at work, and from time to time he mentioned \"19xx\" between his words.</p><p>It is good to like to study history, especially for investing in this equal \"experience + innovation\" thing, and it is a very good habit to study history. Quantitative foundation \"backtest\", Bridgewater will de-digitize historical data. Powell is right to look at history, but when he mentions history many times, he feels a little lacking in confidence.</p><p>Throughout The history of \"Inflation\" in The United States, there is a period of history that has a Great impact on Powell at present, that is, The Great Inflation (Great Inflation) in The United States for 17 years from 1865 to 1882. After World War II, inflation in the United States will basically fall after it appears. Only during this period, the United States experienced high inflation for 17 years. In those 17 years, the United States has experienced four economic downturns, two energy crises, and price controls that only exist in times of war. This period was also the biggest failure of U.S. macroeconomic policy (the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period \"(Siegel 1994).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0122ab3667e25f66a8990ad80a2aa7d0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Why do you know that this history has a huge impact on Powell now? Because the Wall Street Journal found that Powell admired the former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker so much that he even quoted Volcker's autobiography \"Keeping At It\" when he spoke. Volcker's main achievement (without discussing right or wrong) is to suppress inflation in the United States for 17 years. Although it finally led to a severe recession in the United States economy, inflation also dropped.</p><p>According to the classic macro curve, the Phillips curve, we can only account for one end between the two targets of inflation and employment. If maximum employment is guaranteed, then inflation will be high; If inflation is asked to go down, then unemployment will be high. The curve looks like this.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1385774ce64fc31a08eee099cde69326\" tg-width=\"283\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, during the period of great inflation, the Fed found that if inflation was allowed to rise, the unemployment rate would eventually rise. The Phillips curve will not be a fixed curve, but rather a curve that will move up and down. High inflation has become the main target for the Fed to deal with. After the 2008 financial crisis, global inflation, especially in the United States, has remained low, so the Fed's goal has always been to improve employment. However, at present, employment is saturated and inflation is high, so the Fed's goal is automatically adjusted to deal with inflation.</p><p>Why did the United States have high inflation for 17 years? There are many reasons behind this, some are man-made, and there are also economic natural laws, which will not be expanded here. But one important lesson is that<b>If inflation remains high for longer, the less likely it will be to fall back, creating a negative feedback</b>。 From the micro level, it is \"assuming that the breadmaker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the breadmaker will raise the price of bread first; If the landlord expects the breadmaker to raise the price of bread, he will also raise the rent price\". Everyone expects that inflation will continue, and then inflation will become more stubborn. Powell also understood this truth, so he repeatedly said that he wanted to eliminate social inflation expectations.</p><p>For Powell, the current goal is to press down inflation as soon as possible, at all costs. The longer it takes, the more troublesome it will be. He will never care about the rise and fall of the stock market. And if the market still interprets him as dovish, and the market rises, he will not be happy, because a rise in the stock market will also drive inflation (if the company's stock rises, so will the company's capital expenditure). Therefore, whether it is 4% or 5%, it will not be the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve has no ultimate goal. Volcker increased the interest rate to 20% that year.</p><p>The Fed canceled the dot plot this time (this thing has never been accurate, I've said it for several years), the purpose is not to give the market any hope of \"the end of rate hike\", and don't want everyone to see the dot plot and say \"the Fed will stop with 100 basis points\" (because the dot plot will give a long-term rate hike path). The Fed has to dismiss any expectation that rate hike will come to an end-many people see that the Fed will cancel the dot plot this time, but no one thinks about the motive behind it.</p><p>Another thing to note is that during the 17-year inflation period in the United States, inflation rose and fell many times. The lowest point of the decline once reached 3.7%, but then inflation rose rapidly. I don't know if history will repeat this time, but Powell will not dare to relax the rate hike, let alone cut interest rates, even if inflation falls to 3.7% in order to avoid similar high inflation this time.</p><p>Any expectation that the Fed will turn pigeon is false.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159422659","content_text":"》》》盘前 | 三大期指齐挫！高盛预计联储还将加息4次关于周三的加息决定，似乎也没有什么悬念了，从期货市场来看基本上是75个基点（有20%左右概率会是100个基点，可以忽略不计），鲍威尔一定会跟着市场的期待来走。这次加息之后，美国的隔夜利率会进入3%-3.25%区间，这个利率基本上和当下的10年利率齐平，即使10年利率在加息之后继续攀升，但是曲线一定会更加扁平化。现在需要思考另一个问题，鲍威尔或者说美联储加息的终点是什么（4%？还是5%？），是不是像期货市场预测的那样，到了明年年初美联储会停止加息甚至开始降息？长期跟踪鲍威尔以及分析过他个性的人，会知道他有一个特点，就是不太自信。他的不自信来自于3个方面：（1）学历上不如前任美联储主席，（2）上台之后遇到的第一个总统霸凌他，（3）遇到了百年不遇的新冠疫情和几十年不遇的高通胀。不自信的鲍威尔在工作的时候，喜欢引用历史，说话之间时不时会提到“19xx年”。喜欢研究历史是件好事，特别是对于投资这种“经验+创新”各占一半的事情，研究历史是一个非常好的习惯。量化基金会“回测”，桥水会去数据化历史数据。鲍威尔看历史也是对的，但是嘴上多次提到历史，就有点感觉心里底气有点不足。纵观美国的“通货膨张”历史，有一段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大，那就是美国1865-1882年长达17年的The Great Inflation（大通胀）。美国二战后的通胀，基本上都会冒头之后就落下去，唯独这段时间，美国经历了长达17年的高通胀。在这17年时间，美国经历了4次经济衰退，2次能源危机，以及只有战争时期才有的价格管控。这段时间也是美国宏观经济政策最大的失败（the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period” (Siegel 1994).）。为什么知道这段历史对于当下的鲍威尔的影响巨大？因为华尔街日报发现鲍威尔对于前任美联储主席Paul Volcker非常推崇，就连说话都会引用Volcker的自传“Keeping At It”。而Volcker的主要政绩（不讨论对错）就是把长达17年的美国通胀给压了下去，尽管最后导致了美国经济进入了严重衰退，但是通胀也下去了。根据经典的宏观曲线“菲利普斯曲线”，在通胀和就业这两个目标之间，我们只能占到一头。如果保证最大就业，那么通胀就会高；如果要求通胀下去，那么失业率就会高。曲线的样子如下。但是大通胀时期，美联储发现，如果任由通胀高企，那么失业率最后也会上去。菲利普斯曲线不会是一条固定不变的曲线，而是会上下移动的曲线。高通胀就成了美联储要对付的主要目标。在2008年金融危机之后，全球特别是美国的通胀一直保持在低位，所以美联储的目标一直是提高就业。但是当下就业已经饱和，通胀高企，所以美联储的目标就自动调整成对付通胀。为什么当年美国有长达17年的高通胀？这后面有很多原因，有人为的，也有经济自然规律，这里就不展开了。但是有一个重要经验教训，就是如果高通胀的时间越长，那么通胀要想回落的可能性就会越低，形成一种负向反馈。从微观层面来说，就是“假设做面包的人预计面粉价格会持续上涨，那么做面包的人就会先把面包价格提起来；房东如果预期做面包的人会提高面包价格，那么也会把房租价格提起来”，大家都预期通胀会持续那么通胀就会越加顽固。鲍威尔也懂这个道理，所以他一再说要把社会的通胀预期给消灭。对于鲍威尔来说，现在的目标就是尽快把通胀给摁下去，要不惜一切代价，时间拖得越久就越麻烦，什么股市涨跌他是绝对不会理会的。而且如果市场一旦还解读他鸽派，从而市场上涨，他是不高兴的，因为股市上涨也会推动通货膨张（公司股票上涨了，那么公司的资本支出也会上升）。所以无论是4%还是5%，都不会是美联储的最终目标，美联储就没有最终目标，当年Volcker把利率加到了20%。美联储这次取消了点阵图（这东西从来就不准，我说了好几年），目的就是不想给市场任何“加息终点”的希望，不想大家看到点阵图会说“美联储还有100个基点就会停止了”（因为点阵图会给出长期加息路径）。任何期望加息到头的想法，美联储都要打消——很多人都看到了美联储这次会取消点阵图，但是没人去想后面的动机。另外一个需要注意的是，在美国的17年的大通胀时期，通胀是上上下下起伏了好多次，回落的最低点曾经到过3.7%，但是通胀后面又迅速起来了。我不知道这次历史会不会重复，但是鲍威尔会为了避免这次出现类似的高通胀反复，即使通胀跌到3.7%也不敢放松加息，更不要说降息了。任何期待美联储转鸽的想法，皆是虚妄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910162468,"gmtCreate":1663579048155,"gmtModify":1676537294558,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910162468","repostId":"1194761598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194761598","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663575168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194761598?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Movement | Bitcoin dropped below 19,000! Concept stocks slump premarket","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194761598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digita","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19th, US stock index futures fell collectively, with Dow futures falling by 0.56%, Nasdaq futures falling by 0.72% and S&P 500 futures falling by 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Today, Bitcoin once fell below $19,000/piece, and U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>down nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 1.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It fell nearly 10% before the market, terminating the delivery of COVID-19 vaccine to IDT Biologika;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>It fell 2.5% before the market, and the company will lay off 3% of Shopee employees in Indonesia;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>It fell by more than 5% before the market. Previously, a large number of scenes of Grand Theft Auto 6, which had not been officially announced, were leaked, and hackers sought to negotiate a deal;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>It fell by more than 3% before the market, and the company's directors sold a net of 20,000 shares of the company.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Movement | Bitcoin dropped below 19,000! Concept stocks slump premarket</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMovement | Bitcoin dropped below 19,000! Concept stocks slump premarket\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-19 16:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On September 19th, US stock index futures fell collectively, with Dow futures falling by 0.56%, Nasdaq futures falling by 0.72% and S&P 500 futures falling by 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Today, Bitcoin once fell below $19,000/piece, and U.S. blockchain concept stocks generally fell before the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>down nearly 2%;</p><p>Popular Chinese stocks fell before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36 Krypton</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell by more than 2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>down 1.6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>down 1.43%;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>It fell nearly 10% before the market, terminating the delivery of COVID-19 vaccine to IDT Biologika;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>It fell 2.5% before the market, and the company will lay off 3% of Shopee employees in Indonesia;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>It fell by more than 5% before the market. Previously, a large number of scenes of Grand Theft Auto 6, which had not been officially announced, were leaked, and hackers sought to negotiate a deal;</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>It fell by more than 3% before the market, and the company's directors sold a net of 20,000 shares of the company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","NIO":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","MSTR":"Strategy","MARA":"MARA Holdings","KRKR":"36氪","EDU.AU":"EDU HOLDINGS LTD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4526":"热门中概股","MSTR.AU":"MORNINGSTAR INTL SHARES ACT","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","EDU":"新东方","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194761598","content_text":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digital跌超6%，Coinbase、Riot Blockchain跌超5%，MicroStrategy跌超3%，Bit Digital跌近2%；热门中概股盘前走低，36氪跌超6%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来跌1.74%，新东方跌1.6%，阿里巴巴跌1.43%；Valneva盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；Sea盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；Take-Two盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；Phunware盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"KRKR":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"EDU.AU":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"MSTR.AU":0.9,"EDU":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"MSTR":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"BILI":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":806,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937556068,"gmtCreate":1663470611555,"gmtModify":1676537275364,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937556068","repostId":"1182267949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182267949","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663413984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182267949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 19:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"It's hard to stop! These two numbers make it harder for the Fed this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182267949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing is far gone. Retail sales have slowed, and the hot labor market has made it difficult for the Federal Reserve rate hike to maneuver.</p><p>In the latest report of Nomura Securities on Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakening of retail sales data in the United States and the slowdown of manufacturing index further indicate that the U.S. economy is heading for recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the still-hot CPI data and<b>Continuously decreasing initial jobless claims reinforce the importance of rapid rate hike</b>, because markets may have begun to see entrenched high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Given this, Nomura's forecast for U.S. real GDP for the third quarter of 2022 was revised downward to 1.1% from 1.5% annualized.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that amid the economic slowdown, the Fed's mission and need to tighten the financial environment have also become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" of curbing inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core Retail Sales Show Slowing Consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input component of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of slowdown.</p><p>After deflating the nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura estimated that real core retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts say that may be partly because July's data was driven by Amazon's big sale, Prime Day. But even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura's estimated actual core retail sales still fell by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is increasingly evident in business sentiment in the manufacturing sector, Nomura noted.<b>As the consumer sector cools and the manufacturing sector continues to slow down, the signals of an impending recession appear to be getting bigger and bigger.</b></p><p>Analysts expect,<b>This recession in the U.S. economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>In the long run, the high level of core retail sales and the expansion of retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve's rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of initial jobless claims shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, job market data released for the two weeks of Sept. 3 and Sept. 10 continued to hold strong momentum. Initial jobless claims fell from 218,000 to 213,000 on Sept. 10; Continuing unemployment claims fell again more than expected, at 143,000, compared to the consensus forecast of 147,800.</p><p>While the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of the current high inflation, analysts noted.</p><p>Recent Fed speeches show that members are increasingly concerned about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer sustained strong unemployment claims show that,<b>The hot labor market is driving the intensification of current wage increases</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes the Fed needs to cool the labor market before expecting inflation to meaningfully fall toward its target. Therefore, the continued unusually strong job market data reinforced the pressure of rate hike strength.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's hard to stop! These two numbers make it harder for the Fed this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's hard to stop! These two numbers make it harder for the Fed this week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 19:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The possibility of a soft landing is far gone. Retail sales have slowed, and the hot labor market has made it difficult for the Federal Reserve rate hike to maneuver.</p><p>In the latest report of Nomura Securities on Thursday, analysts pointed out that the current weakening of retail sales data in the United States and the slowdown of manufacturing index further indicate that the U.S. economy is heading for recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a55e2c0d3f86e15b081445e564157e3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Meanwhile, the still-hot CPI data and<b>Continuously decreasing initial jobless claims reinforce the importance of rapid rate hike</b>, because markets may have begun to see entrenched high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822a908530fc15573a3898d0ffd7086a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Given this, Nomura's forecast for U.S. real GDP for the third quarter of 2022 was revised downward to 1.1% from 1.5% annualized.</p><p>Analysts pointed out that amid the economic slowdown, the Fed's mission and need to tighten the financial environment have also become more urgent, and the so-called \"soft landing\" of curbing inflation without the economy falling into recession may be fading away.</p><p>Core Retail Sales Show Slowing Consumption</p><p>Core retail sales are the basic input component of personal consumption in GDP. Although U.S. retail sales in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, core data reflected signs of slowdown.</p><p>After deflating the nominal core retail sales data using a weighted combination of August CPI data, Nomura estimated that real core retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.6% month-over-month.</p><p>Analysts say that may be partly because July's data was driven by Amazon's big sale, Prime Day. But even excluding online sales from the calculation, Nomura's estimated actual core retail sales still fell by 0.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcc16a43caf18b2e7ae06b1dd780f6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1020\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This slowdown is a general trend in the consumer sector and is increasingly evident in business sentiment in the manufacturing sector, Nomura noted.<b>As the consumer sector cools and the manufacturing sector continues to slow down, the signals of an impending recession appear to be getting bigger and bigger.</b></p><p>Analysts expect,<b>This recession in the U.S. economy will begin in the fourth quarter of 2022.</b></p><p>In the long run, the high level of core retail sales and the expansion of retailer profit margins continue to put pressure on commodity inflation, pushing the Federal Reserve's rate hike to cool economic activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc2182d74dd370cddcb786f096c32dc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"977\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Strong labor market</p><p>The number of initial jobless claims shows that the U.S. labor market is recovering.</p><p>Despite the continued cooling trend in consumer and manufacturing activity, job market data released for the two weeks of Sept. 3 and Sept. 10 continued to hold strong momentum. Initial jobless claims fell from 218,000 to 213,000 on Sept. 10; Continuing unemployment claims fell again more than expected, at 143,000, compared to the consensus forecast of 147,800.</p><p>While the labor market remains one of the few strong sectors of the economy, strong labor demand is a driver of the current high inflation, analysts noted.</p><p>Recent Fed speeches show that members are increasingly concerned about the risk of a wage spiral, while the no longer sustained strong unemployment claims show that,<b>The hot labor market is driving the intensification of current wage increases</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3780ae4a8445435a88c038babbdc6aeb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1063\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura believes the Fed needs to cool the labor market before expecting inflation to meaningfully fall toward its target. Therefore, the continued unusually strong job market data reinforced the pressure of rate hike strength.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670547","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182267949","content_text":"软着陆的可能性已经远去。零售销售放缓之余，劳动力市场的火热让美联储加息再难有回旋余地。在本周四野村证券最新报告中，分析师指出，当前美国零售销售数据走弱和制造业指数放缓进一步增明了美国经济正在走向衰退。与此同时，依然火热的CPI数据和持续降低的首次申领失业金人数强化了快速加息的重要性，因为市场可能已经开始出现根深蒂固的高通胀。鉴于此，野村证券对美国2022年第三季度实际GDP的预测从年化的1.5%下修至1.1%。分析师指出，在经济减速的情况下，美联储收紧金融环境的使命和需求也变为更加迫切，所谓在经济不陷入衰退的情况下抑制通胀的“软着陆”可能正在远去。核心零售销售显示消费放缓核心零售销售是GDP中个人消费的基本投入部分，尽管美国8月零售销售环比超预期，但核心数据却反映出放缓迹象。在使用8月CPI数据的加权组合对名义核心零售销售数据进行平减后，野村证券估计美国实际核心零售销售环比下降0.6%。分析师表示，这在一定程度上可能是因为7月份的数据受到亚马逊大促活动Prime Day的推动。不过即使将线上销售排除在计算之外，野村证券估计的实际核心零售销售仍然下降了0.3%。野村证券指出，这种放缓是消费部门的普遍趋势，在制造业的商业情绪中也越来越明显。随着消费行业的降温和制造业的不断放缓，即将到来的衰退信号似乎越来越大。分析师预计，美国经济的这场衰退将于2022年第四季度开始。而长期趋势来看，核心零售销售水平的高位以及零售商利润率的扩大继续对商品通胀施加压力，推动美联储加息以冷却经济活动。劳动力市场强劲首次申请失业金人数显示，美国劳动市场正在复苏。尽管消费和制造业活动持续降温趋势，但9月3日和9月10日这两周公布的就业市场数据继续保持强劲势头。9月10日首次申请失业救济人数从21.8万人降至21.3万人；持续申领失业救济人数再次超预期下降，为14.3万人，而普遍预测为14.78万人。分析师指出，虽然劳动力市场仍然是经济中为数不多的强劲部门之一，但强劲的劳动力需求是当前高通胀的一个驱动因素。近期的美联储讲话显示，委员们越来越担心工资螺旋上升的风险，而不再持续的强劲失业申请人数表明，劳动力市场火热，正推动当前工资上涨的加剧。野村证券认为，在预期通胀有意义地向目标下降之前，美联储需要冷却劳动力市场。因此，持续异常强劲的就业市场数据强化了加息力度的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937693199,"gmtCreate":1663409392811,"gmtModify":1676537267214,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937693199","repostId":"1138147578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138147578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663316748,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138147578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-16 16:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Market Overview | 250 billion leading flash crash! What happened to the \"bull market standard bearer\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138147578","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Hengke Index fell by 2.65% to refresh the low price in the stage, and Hao gambling stocks strengthened against the trend; The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, and 4,200 shares in the two cities fell; US stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil and gold all fell>>><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks maintained a declining trend throughout the day, and all three major indices refreshed their low prices. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the H-Share Index fell 1.36% and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.65%. The net inflow of southbound funds against the trend was HK$2.471 billion, and the market turnover was enlarged to HK$123.9 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large-cap technology stocks continued to fall, dragging the market lower,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Down nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>Both fell; Coal stocks and power stocks fell among the top,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>Continuous reading callback, the State Office encouraged securities firms to reduce service charges, Chinese-funded securities stocks plummeted, auto stocks continued their decline,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>Both fell by more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bid opening procedures in the morning to bid for six Macau gaming licenses. Gambling stocks strengthened against the trend, and aviation stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks and dairy stocks partially rose.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>open low went lower throughout the day, and all three major indexes fell by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The intraday market cap fell below the trillion mark. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound funds sold 4.512 billion yuan in the whole day, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, software-related sectors strengthened against the trend, with data security and digital currency leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Masamoto Yoshita</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the daily limit. In addition, military industry, TOPCON batteries, chips and other sectors were active in the session, but they all rose and fell in the end. In terms of decline, brokers, coal and other blue-chip sectors collectively adjusted,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>dropped by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Falling limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>Wait for a fall of more than 5%. Generally, individual stocks fell more than they rose, with more than 4,200 stocks in the two cities falling, and the number of stocks falling for two consecutive days exceeded 4,000. Today's turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 799.4 billion, a decrease of 119.7 billion compared with the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency and hotels rose, while securities, coal, oil and gas, new urbanization and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>Today, the securities sector dropped first in the whole market. As of the close, the sector index plummeted by nearly 5%, and \"Coupon Mao\" Oriental Fortune plummeted by more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing the Institutional Transaction Costs of Market Players issued by the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage securities, funds, guarantee and other institutions to further reduce service charges. Regarding today's stock price performance, Oriental Fortune responded to the brokerage Chinese reporter that the company's operation was normal.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, the Dow futures fell 0.75%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.98%, and the S&P 500 futures fell 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>It plunged 18% before the market, after announcing that the preliminary revenue data of $23.2 billion in the first quarter was less than expected, and the full-year performance guidance was revoked.</p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $84.59/barrel, down 0.6%; Brent oil is now traded at $90.5/barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term and are now down 0.8% at $1,663.9/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market Overview | 250 billion leading flash crash! What happened to the \"bull market standard bearer\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket Overview | 250 billion leading flash crash! What happened to the \"bull market standard bearer\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-16 16:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Hengke Index fell by 2.65% to refresh the low price in the stage, and Hao gambling stocks strengthened against the trend; The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, and 4,200 shares in the two cities fell; US stock index futures, European stocks, crude oil and gold all fell>>><b>Hong Kong stock</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks maintained a declining trend throughout the day, and all three major indices refreshed their low prices. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.89%, the H-Share Index fell 1.36% and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.65%. The net inflow of southbound funds against the trend was HK$2.471 billion, and the market turnover was enlarged to HK$123.9 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/038daf7de4e0b58c05f167b35dd51aeb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, large-cap technology stocks continued to fall, dragging the market lower,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>fell by more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a>Down nearly 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent Holdings</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">JD Group-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba-SW</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a>Both fell; Coal stocks and power stocks fell among the top,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">Yankuang Energy</a>Continuous reading callback, the State Office encouraged securities firms to reduce service charges, Chinese-funded securities stocks plummeted, auto stocks continued their decline,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">Li Auto-W.</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">XPeng Motors-W</a>Both fell by more than 4%. On the other hand, seven gaming companies conducted bid opening procedures in the morning to bid for six Macau gaming licenses. Gambling stocks strengthened against the trend, and aviation stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks and dairy stocks partially rose.</p><p><b>A Shares</b></p><p>open low went lower throughout the day, and all three major indexes fell by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>The intraday market cap fell below the trillion mark. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.3%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.34%. Northbound funds sold 4.512 billion yuan in the whole day, of which Shanghai Stock Connect sold 1.855 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect sold 2.657 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717cf6de4afd8a4ee62e77530098c2b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the disk, software-related sectors strengthened against the trend, with data security and digital currency leading the gains.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/003029\">Masamoto Yoshita</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603138\">Massive data</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000948\">Nantian Information</a>Wait for the daily limit. In addition, military industry, TOPCON batteries, chips and other sectors were active in the session, but they all rose and fell in the end. In terms of decline, brokers, coal and other blue-chip sectors collectively adjusted,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>dropped by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600397\">Anyuan Coal Industry</a>Falling limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">Guolian Securities</a>Wait for a fall of more than 5%. Generally, individual stocks fell more than they rose, with more than 4,200 stocks in the two cities falling, and the number of stocks falling for two consecutive days exceeded 4,000. Today's turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 799.4 billion, a decrease of 119.7 billion compared with the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, only a few sectors such as data security, digital currency and hotels rose, while securities, coal, oil and gas, new urbanization and other sectors were among the top losers.</p><p>Today, the securities sector dropped first in the whole market. As of the close, the sector index plummeted by nearly 5%, and \"Coupon Mao\" Oriental Fortune plummeted by more than 10%, leading the decline in the securities sector.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e87b37967df66fe3c086239fab631de\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Yesterday, the Opinions on Further Optimizing the Business Environment and Reducing the Institutional Transaction Costs of Market Players issued by the General Office of the State Council proposed to encourage securities, funds, guarantee and other institutions to further reduce service charges. Regarding today's stock price performance, Oriental Fortune responded to the brokerage Chinese reporter that the company's operation was normal.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks</b></p><p>The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated lower. As of press time, the Dow futures fell 0.75%, the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.98%, and the S&P 500 futures fell 0.85%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cbeedc8e9485f7564bd997828d608cd\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">FedEx</a>It plunged 18% before the market, after announcing that the preliminary revenue data of $23.2 billion in the first quarter was less than expected, and the full-year performance guidance was revoked.</p><p><b>European shares</b></p><p>Major European indexes fell across the board, with Germany's DAX30 falling 1.74%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>It fell 0.06%, and France's CAC40 fell 1.31%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e62f314915154c061ee6845cfb1e8f39\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fell in the short term. As of press time, WTI crude oil was reported at $84.59/barrel, down 0.6%; Brent oil is now traded at $90.5/barrel, down 0.37%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aa46f7acbc2324e9dfcc71c45333f89\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ca07cce668a790f61cccd06368df6d7\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"819\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell in the short term and are now down 0.8% at $1,663.9/oz.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176afa5f71746b0c43139a73fde7c7cc\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"825\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138147578","content_text":"恒科指跌2.65%刷新阶段低价，濠赌股逆势走强；A股三大指数跌逾2%，两市4200股下跌；美股指期货、欧股、原油、黄金均走低>>>港股港股全天维持跌势，三大指数均刷新阶段低价。恒指跌0.89%，国指跌1.36%，恒生科技指数跌2.65%。南下资金逆势净流入24.71亿港元，大市成交额放大至1239亿港元。盘面上，大型科技股继续下跌拖累大市走低，快手-W跌超7%，百度集团-SW跌近4%，腾讯控股、美团-W、京东集团-SW、阿里巴巴-SW、小米集团-W皆下跌；煤炭股与电力股跌幅靠前，兖矿能源连读回调，国办鼓励券商降低服务收费，中资券商股大跌，汽车股延续跌势，理想汽车-W、小鹏汽车-W均跌超4%。另一方面，7家博彩企业上午进行开标程序竞投6张澳门博彩牌照，濠赌股逆势走强，航空股、蓝筹地产股、乳制品股部分上涨。A股大盘全天低开低走，三大指数均跌超2%，宁德时代盘中市值跌破万亿大关。截止收盘，沪指跌2.3%，深成指跌2.3%，创业板指跌2.34%。北向资金全天净卖出45.12亿元，其中沪股通净卖出18.55亿元，深股通净卖出26.57亿元。盘面上，软件相关板块逆势走强，数据安全、数字货币等方向领涨，吉大正元、海量数据、南天信息等涨停。此外军工、TOPCON电池、芯片等多个板块盘中活跃，但最终均冲高回落。下跌方面，券商、煤炭等多个蓝筹板块集体调整，东方财富跌超10%，安源煤业跌停，广发证券、国联证券等跌超5%。总体上个股跌多涨少，两市超4200只个股下跌，连续两日下跌个股家数超4000家。沪深两市今日成交额7994亿，较上个交易日缩量1197亿。板块方面，仅数据安全、数字货币、酒店等少数板块上涨，证券、煤炭、油气、新型城镇化等板块跌幅居前。今日证券板块跌幅全市场第一，截至收盘，板块指数大跌近5%，“券茅”东方财富重挫逾10%，领跌证券板块。昨日，国务院办公厅印发的《关于进一步优化营商环境降低市场主体制度性交易成本的意见》提出，鼓励证券、基金、担保等机构进一步降低服务收费。对于今日股价表现，东方财富回应券商中国记者称，公司经营一切正常。美股美股三大股指期货震荡走低，截至发稿，道指期货跌0.75%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.98%，标普500指数期货跌0.85%。联邦快递盘前重挫18%，此前公布第一季度营收初步数据232亿美元不及预期，并撤销全年业绩指引。欧股欧洲主要指数全线下跌，德国DAX30跌1.74%，英国富时100跌0.06%，法国CAC40跌1.31%。原油原油期货短线下挫，截止发稿，WTI原油报84.59美元/桶，跌0.6%；布油现报90.5美元/桶，跌0.37%。黄金黄金期货短线下挫，现跌0.8%，报1663.9美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937848519,"gmtCreate":1663402695131,"gmtModify":1676537266351,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4122459637181732","idStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937848519","repostId":"1184702115","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184702115","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663370103,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184702115?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-17 07:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: U.S. Stocks Are Going to Fall Until October, Here Are 2023 Trading Strategies","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184702115","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes that the most important trades are to short the US dollar and long emerging market currencies. Once there is a clear signal of recession in the United States, or a black swan event is induced, the dollar may collapse at any time.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America and the most accurate analyst who predicted the trend of U.S. stocks this year, the current decline of U.S. stocks is not over yet, and the pain will last until next month. Next year, the most important transaction is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging markets.</p><p>The most important factor that continues the pain of U.S. stocks is inflation in the United States. Hartnett believes that the current inflation will hardly fall to the level of 4% to 5% anytime soon. Wall Street generally expects that only when inflation falls to this level will the Fed likely have the possibility of loosening its current policy.</p><p>Hartnett believes the U.S. Federal Funds rate will reach 4% to 5% in the next four to five months. And in the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will also rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett said: A new high in interest rates = a new low in U.S. stocks.</b></p><p>Speaking of the prevailing pessimism at the moment, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again as the inflationary shock is not over.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets in the past 140 years, with an average peak-to-trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If you look at it in this way, this bear market will end on October 19th this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a minimum of 3,020 points. This is actually not a new view of Hartnett. He said in May this year that this year's bear market will end in October, and the S&P 500 index will be at a minimum of 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, U.S. stocks also started a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett said that at present, U.S. stocks have not experienced the impact of a sharp decline in profits of listed companies. And yesterday's withdrawal of FedEx's fiscal 2023 performance guidance may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are more volatile, heading towards prolonged inflation</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will also depreciate further to 150. In the next three months, a series of major events will occur: the Italian election, the midterm elections in the United States, the G20 summit, the West's determination of the ceiling of Russian oil prices, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more volatile.</p><p>Furthermore, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term, rather than a short-term, solvable problem. The latest arguments are a 14% pay increase for U.S. freight rail workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest since 1984. Globally, factors such as Germany's nationalization of the utility sector, the EU steel industry seeking government assistance, the G7's price control of energy prices and substantial increase in military spending, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and so on, all mean that the current world is shifting from chronic deflation to chronic inflation.</p><p>How to trade at the moment?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's suggestion is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to turn to bullish US stocks, the following conditions are required: the number of initial jobless claims exceeds 350,000, the yield of US bonds exceeds 4%, the credit spread widens, and the US dollar falls back.</p><p>This could all happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars and buy commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks and value stocks that perform against the background of high but stable inflation. That is, avoid highly leveraged companies, tech stocks, private equity, etc winners during the quantitative easing era.</p><p>Regarding the whole of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of recession in the United States, or a black swan event is induced, the dollar may collapse at any time.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: U.S. Stocks Are Going to Fall Until October, Here Are 2023 Trading Strategies</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street's Most Accurate Analyst: U.S. Stocks Are Going to Fall Until October, Here Are 2023 Trading Strategies\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-17 07:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Regarding next year, Hartnett believes that the most important trades are to short the US dollar and long emerging market currencies. Once there is a clear signal of recession in the United States, or a black swan event is induced, the dollar may collapse at any time.</b>According to Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America and the most accurate analyst who predicted the trend of U.S. stocks this year, the current decline of U.S. stocks is not over yet, and the pain will last until next month. Next year, the most important transaction is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging markets.</p><p>The most important factor that continues the pain of U.S. stocks is inflation in the United States. Hartnett believes that the current inflation will hardly fall to the level of 4% to 5% anytime soon. Wall Street generally expects that only when inflation falls to this level will the Fed likely have the possibility of loosening its current policy.</p><p>Hartnett believes the U.S. Federal Funds rate will reach 4% to 5% in the next four to five months. And in the next four to five quarters, the unemployment rate in the United States will also rise to 4% to 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43762388df32abbd82f700f3eb7ec869\" tg-width=\"582\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hartnett said: A new high in interest rates = a new low in U.S. stocks.</b></p><p>Speaking of the prevailing pessimism at the moment, he believes that financial conditions will tighten rapidly again as the inflationary shock is not over.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0faf853bc177543126262091388e6c73\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced 20 bear markets in the past 140 years, with an average peak-to-trough decline of 37.3% and an average duration of 289 days. If you look at it in this way, this bear market will end on October 19th this year, and the S&P 500 index will reach a minimum of 3,020 points. This is actually not a new view of Hartnett. He said in May this year that this year's bear market will end in October, and the S&P 500 index will be at a minimum of 3,000 points.</p><p>It is worth noting that in 2008, U.S. stocks also started a bottom out in late October, but then bottomed out again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dc0d5657e1a150fc568db66ee7ac85c\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hartnett said that at present, U.S. stocks have not experienced the impact of a sharp decline in profits of listed companies. And yesterday's withdrawal of FedEx's fiscal 2023 performance guidance may be the beginning of this process.</p><p>Global markets are more volatile, heading towards prolonged inflation</p><p>Soon, the Federal Reserve will rate hike 75 or even 100 basis points this month, and the yen will also depreciate further to 150. In the next three months, a series of major events will occur: the Italian election, the midterm elections in the United States, the G20 summit, the West's determination of the ceiling of Russian oil prices, etc. Hartnett believes that these events will make the market more volatile.</p><p>Furthermore, Hartnett believes that inflation will be a long-term, rather than a short-term, solvable problem. The latest arguments are a 14% pay increase for U.S. freight rail workers and a drop in U.S. strategic oil supplies to their lowest since 1984. Globally, factors such as Germany's nationalization of the utility sector, the EU steel industry seeking government assistance, the G7's price control of energy prices and substantial increase in military spending, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and so on, all mean that the current world is shifting from chronic deflation to chronic inflation.</p><p>How to trade at the moment?</p><p>In the current market environment, Hartnett's suggestion is to maintain a defensive strategy, and to turn to bullish US stocks, the following conditions are required: the number of initial jobless claims exceeds 350,000, the yield of US bonds exceeds 4%, the credit spread widens, and the US dollar falls back.</p><p>This could all happen by the end of the first quarter of next year.</p><p>In the fourth quarter of this year, Hartnett believes that investors should sell dollars and buy commodities, banks, small-cap stocks, emerging market stocks and value stocks that perform against the background of high but stable inflation. That is, avoid highly leveraged companies, tech stocks, private equity, etc winners during the quantitative easing era.</p><p>Regarding the whole of next year, he believes that the most important thing is to short the US dollar and long the currencies of emerging market countries. Once there is a clear signal of recession in the United States, or a black swan event is induced, the dollar may collapse at any time.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670528","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184702115","content_text":"关于明年，Hartnett认为，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。在今年预判美股走势最精准的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett看来，当前美股的下挫还没结束，痛苦要持续到下个月。而明年，最重要的交易是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。令美股痛苦延续的最重要因素是美国的通胀，Hartnett认为，当前的通胀很难很快降至4%到5%的水平。华尔街普遍预计，只有当通胀降至这一水平，美联储才可能有松动当前政策的可能性。Hartnett认为，未来4到5个月内，美国的联邦基金利率将达到4%至5%。而在未来四到五个季度，美国的失业率也将上升到4%到5%。Hartnett称：利率的新高=美股的新低。谈到当前普遍的悲观情绪，他认为，由于通胀冲击还没有结束，金融状况将再次迅速收紧。从历史上来看，标普500指数在过去140年中经历了20次熊市，平均峰谷跌幅达到37.3%，平均持续时间289天。如果以此来看的话，本轮熊市将在今年10月19日结束，标准普尔500指数最低将触达3020点。这其实不是Hartnett的新观点，他在今年5月就说，今年的熊市将在10月结束，标普500指数最低为3000点。值得注意的是，2008年，美股也是在10月下旬开始触底反弹，但之后又二次探底。Hartnett称，当前，美股还没经历上市公司利润大幅下滑的冲击。而昨天联邦快递撤销2023财年业绩指引，可能是这一过程的开端。全球市场更为动荡，走向长期通胀很快，美联储将在本月加息75个甚至100个基点，日元也将进一步贬值至150。而在之后的三个月中，一系列重大事件将发生：意大利大选、美国中期选举、G20峰会、西方对俄罗斯油价上限的确定等等，Hartnett认为，这些事件都将令市场更为动荡。此外，Hartnett认为，通胀将会是长期的，而不是短暂可以解决的问题。最新的论据是美国货运铁路工人加薪14%以及美国战略石油供应降至自1984年以来最低。从全球来看，德国将公用事业部门国有化、欧盟钢铁业寻求政府援助、G7对能源价格的价格控制并大幅增加军费、地缘冲突不断等等因素，都意味着当前的世界正在从长期通缩转向长期通胀。当前如何交易？在当前的市场环境下，Hartnett的建议是保持防御策略，而要转向看涨美股，则需要以下条件：首次申请失业救济人数超过35万，美债收益率超过4%，信用利差扩大，美元回落。这一切可能会在明年一季度末发生。在今年四季度，Hartnett认为，投资者应当卖出美元，同时买入在高通胀但稳定的通胀背景下表现的大宗商品、银行、小型股、新兴市场股票、价值股。也就是说，避免高杠杆的公司、科技股、私募股权等在量化宽松时期的赢家。关于明年全年，他认为，最重要的是做空美元、做多新兴市场国家货币。一旦美国经济衰退出现明确信号，或者黑天鹅事件诱发，美元可能随时立刻崩溃。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9936825330,"gmtCreate":1662758281420,"gmtModify":1676537132513,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BK4108\">$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$</a>","text":"$电影和娱乐(BK4108)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918492213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937105251,"gmtCreate":1663376506973,"gmtModify":1676537261041,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] 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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/48b48ff660262cd1392797d60fd39906","width":"1125","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916854300","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916852858,"gmtCreate":1664578423774,"gmtModify":1676537478148,"author":{"id":"4122459637181732","authorId":"4122459637181732","name":"小狼狗风华无双","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/47202319b795c8cc4a10e1a1bcb388c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4122459637181732","authorIdStr":"4122459637181732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916852858","repostId":"1146232184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146232184","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664542806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146232184?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 21:00","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146232184","media":"三思期权","summary":"巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rate swaps, and a rise in interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1607924588218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Experience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExperience of the UK Crisis: The Whole Pension Market Almost Destroyed!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">三思期权</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-30 21:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Having experienced this week's storm, this short essay will commemorate it in the form of notes. This week was really tired. In addition to being tired, I also regretted that there was no foresight in such a big event, so I missed this black swan transaction.</p><p>What is a metaphor for what happened this week? I feel closest to March 2020. The British interest rate and pound market completely collapsed, the whole British pension market almost fell on the street, and the LDI industry in pension collapsed overnight. If the whole pension market collapses, it won't be March, it will be 2008. Fortunately, the central bank came out to bail out the market. ..</p><p>These two days are really too tired, don't want to code too many words. For roughly what is happening in the market, you can see Degg_GlobalMacroFin for basic knowledge. In this article, I will focus on my front-line experience.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3631a2312876324acb9456bbd80c4a2d\" tg-width=\"587\" tg-height=\"114\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>Remember these two men, almost on their own, destroyed the huge pension market. Of course, they can't be blamed for the leverage of LDI as an industry. But the introduction of unchecked tax cuts without experience was the trigger that almost killed the pension market suddenly.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70f8e2c3c00e5ca5bb643a16e7534a83\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The simplest explanation is that Silly X's tax cuts caused interest rates to skyrocket. The sharp surge in Interest rates has led to huge short-term losses in Interest rate swaps used by LDI funds, which many pensions use to hedge against Interest rates and inflation risks. The huge loss itself is not so terrible. The most terrible thing is the short-term continuous huge loss, which leads to the quick use of margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>From the end of August to the end of September, the UK's 30-year interest rate skyrocketed by 230 basis points. How much does the pace of this skyrocketing impact these LDI funds holding interest rate swaps? We can make a preliminary estimate.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dd447ad5d4d8ebe9b9acb9cc8d502b1\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>For a pension with a scale of 1 billion, the DV01 of interest rate swap (profit and loss arising from interest rate swap caused by one basis point interest rate change) in the LDI fund held is about 2 million. That is to say, in the past two months, because the 30-year interest rate has changed by 230 basis points. The loss arising from interest rate swap is 230* 2m =460m. That is to say, in the past 2 months, the loss arising from interest rate swap is nearly half of the assets of this pension!!!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>This loss is not really a loss. Because these interest rate swaps are used to hedge the pension liability side, the interest rate swaps lose money, and the value of the liability side also declines. Theoretically, this is a long-short hedge transaction that will not incur much loss.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But, but, but, in the last example, in such a short time, it lost 400 million yuan. In order to pay the margin, those LDI funds first sold the most liquid British Treasury Bond in their hands to raise funds to make up the margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Friends who know a little about OTC trading will ask, why don't these funds take these British Treasury Bond as margin? Because many over-the-counter transactions can directly use Treasury Bond as margin. This brings to another topic, that is, the interest rate swap market has undergone a big change in the past 10 years. Most interest rate swaps have gone from mere over-the-counter trading to centrally cleared over-the-counter trading. The clearing house is LCH, and now it can only use cash as margin.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Well, here comes the point, and this is the most important step in the death spiral. The Treasury Bond interest rate in the UK is actually similar to the interest rate swapped by the British interest rate. Because the interest rate swap loses money, the fund manager has to sell Treasury Bond to make up the margin. A lot of selling of Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond, while a rise in interest rates in Treasury Bond led to a rise in interest rate swaps, and a rise in interest rate swaps led to fund managers selling more Treasury Bond margin...</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>The financial market is not afraid of rising or falling. When the price is low, people will naturally buy it, but the market is most afraid of this death spiral.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>How big is this pension market? According to PPF estimates, at the end of August, pension assets totalled about £1.5 trillion. That is to say, in the past two months, the initial estimate of the margin caused by the loss of the LDI strategy of the whole pension is 690 billion. The deposit paid by my friend's LDI desk last Friday was 1.2 billion! Yes, a day, a desk 1.2 billion!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>In the process of selling off, Treasury Bond sold out and only sold other assets. The first is the stock with good liquidity. This leads to the stock falling, and it falls indiscriminately. Because in this process, the pension can only be sold with closed eyes due to the requirement of the speed of making up the deposit (generally T +0).</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>When the stock falls, it falls, and when it is cheap, people will naturally buy it. But another fatal point of the whole link is that these pensions have greatly increased their allocation of illiquid assets, such as real estate and private equity funds, in the past 10 years. These are not what you can redeem if you want. This creates a huge problem, liquidity mismatch!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>I can't sell it. I'm sorry I can't pay the margin. Those interest rate swaps will explode. Investment bank trading desks must sell these interest rate swap positions in the market. This causes the interest rate of interest rate swaps to continue to rise! Thus dragging down other pensions with good liquidity.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>At that time, the whole interest rate swap market was paralyzed, and most market makers had left the market. The bid-ask spread on the previous one-year UK interest rate swap was only 0.1-0.2 bps, but at that time it had risen to 9-10bps!</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>After the death spiral, the only thing that can be done is wait for the Bank of England to bail out the market. Fortunately, the central bank made a decisive move and sacrificed QE to suppress the rising momentum of interest rates in Treasury Bond. The death spiral is broken. Pull a lot of pensions and those LDI funds back from the brink of death.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>But not all saw the dawn. Several large British asset management LDI funds exploded. Just look at their share price.... I won't release their names, just leave some ethics.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4b774b4e7003f42a53ee0d06289797a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><ul><li>The worst are the pensions that fell before dawn, and the holders who live on them.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>If the bailout is two days later, the whole pension industry will be gg.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>With this huge earthquake, even the surviving funds in LDI industry are difficult to survive. The biggest shortcomings of the business model of this industry have been exposed. And without leverage, this industry can't survive. Let's just say that the industry is likely to disappear in the near future.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Breaking the death spiral, the 50-year UK Treasury Bond has risen by 40% in one day! Who said Treasury Bond rose slowly?</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499bde85b23a6e2bf8d80bc692321a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA\">三思期权</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e326edc19611f4a02f9a0ebb66bf9","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMwPDK6F78YABLQIBpUexA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146232184","content_text":"亲历了这周的风暴，这篇小短文就以手记的形式纪念一下。这周实在累的不行了，心累之余还有点遗憾，这么大的事件，竟然没有先知先觉，也就错过了这次的黑天鹅交易。怎么比喻这周发生的事情呢？我感觉最接近2020年三月。英国利率以及英镑市场完全垮掉，英国整个养老金市场差点扑街，而养老金里的LDI行业一夜之间就垮了。要是整个养老金市场垮了，就不是3月份了，那就是08年。好在央行出来救市了。。。这两天实在太心累，不想码太多字。市场上大概发生了什么，基础知识可以看看Degg_GlobalMacroFin这篇。这篇里我就重点讲讲我的一线经历。记住这俩人，几乎凭借了一己之力把巨大的养老金市场毁灭。当然，LDI这个行业的杠杆不能怪他们。 但是没有经验的情况下推出毫无节制的减税政策，是差点让养老金市场突然死亡的导火索。最简单的解释就是， 傻X的减税政策导致利率大幅飙升。 利率大幅飙升导致不少养老金用来对冲利率以及通胀风险的LDI基金里使用的利率（Interest rate swap）短期出现巨额亏损。 巨亏本身不是那么可怕，最可怕的是短期连续的巨亏，导致保证金很快就用光了。从8月底到9月底， 英国30年期利率暴涨了230个基点。这个暴涨的速度对这些持有利率互换的LDI基金有多大影响？ 我们可以初略的估算一下。一个规模10亿的养老金，持有的LDI基金里利率互换的DV01 (一个基点利率变动导致利率互换产生的损益） 是大概两百万。也就是说，过去两个月，因为30年期利率变动了230个基点。利率互换产生的损失就是230* 2m = 460m。 也就是说， 过去2个月，利率互换产生的亏损是这个养老金资产的接近一半！！！这个损失，不是真的亏损。因为这些利率互换是拿来对冲养老金负债端的，利率互换亏了，负债端的价值也下降了。理论上这个是个多空对冲交易不会产生什么损失。但是，但是， 但是,在上个例子里，这么短时间里，亏损了4个亿，那些LDI基金为了交保证金，首先卖出手中流动性最好的英国国债来筹集资金补保证金。懂一点场外交易的朋友会问，为啥这些基金不拿这些英国国债当保证金？ 因为不少场外交易是可以直接用国债当保证金的。 这就要牵扯到另一个话题，就是过去10年里利率互换市场经历了一场大变革。多数利率互换已经从单纯的场外交易变成了中央清算的场外交易。清算所是LCH,现在只能用现金做保证金。那么好了，重点来了， 这也就是死亡螺旋最重要的一步。英国国债利率，和英国利率互换的利率其实是差不多的东西。 因为利率互换亏钱了，基金经理要卖国债补保证金。 大量的抛售国债，导致国债利率上升， 而国债利率上升导致利率互换的利率上升，利率互换上升导致基金经理要卖更多的国债补保证金。。。。金融市场不怕涨，不怕跌，价格低了自然有人买，但是市场最怕这种死亡螺旋。这个养老金市场有多大呢？ 根据PPF的估计，8月底，养老金资产一共大约一共1.5万亿英镑。也就是说，过去两个月，整个养老金的LDI策略亏损导致的保证金的初略估算在6900亿 。 我朋友的LDI desk在上周五一天补交的保证金就是12个亿！对， 一天，一个desk 12亿！在抛售的过程中， 国债卖完了， 只有卖其他资产。 首先就是流动性好的股票。 这就导致股票也跟着跌，而且是无差别的跌。因为这个过程中，养老金由于补保证金的速度有要求(一般是T+0），所以只能闭着眼卖。股票跌就跌了，便宜了自然有人买。 但整个环节另一个要命的点是， 这些养老金过去10年里大幅度增加配置了没有流动性的资产， 比如地产，比如私募股权基金。 这些不是你想赎回就赎回的。 这就产生了一个巨大的问题，流动性错配！卖不了，抱歉交不上保证金那些利率互换的仓位就爆了。 投行交易台就必须要在市场上卖掉这些利率互换头寸。这就导致利率互换的利率继续上升！从而再拖垮其他流动性还不错的养老金。当时整个利率互换市场市场已经瘫痪， 多数做市商已经离场。 以前一年期的英国利率互换的买卖差价也就0.1-0.2 bps,当时已经上升到9-10bps!出现了死亡螺旋之后，唯一能够做的就是等英国央行救市。 好在央行果断出手，祭出QE压住国债利率上升的势头。死亡螺旋被打破。把不少养老金以及那些LDI基金从死亡的边缘拉回来。但不是所有的人都看到了黎明。 几家大的英国资管的LDI基金就爆了。 看看他们的股价就知道。。。。 我就不公布他们的名字了，留点口德。最惨的是那些倒在黎明前夜的养老金，以及靠这些养老金生活的持有人。如果救市再晚两天，整个养老金行业就gg了。而LDI这个行业随着这次巨震，即使活下来的基金也很难继续生存下去， 这个行业的商业模式的最大缺点已经被暴露了。而如果不用杠杆， 这个行业也生存不下去。只能说这个行业在不久的将来很可能会消失。打破了死亡螺旋，50年英国国债一天就上涨了40%！ 谁说国债涨的慢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}