1.Not-dot-com... something else!Tech stock valuations are priced for perfection+ What's similar vs different to the dot com bubble, and key points for investorsImage2.Stock Splits boost returns(or is it just that stocks that go up are more likely to split... 🧐 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image3.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is overvaluedImage4.Emerging Markets *ex-China* are set t

1.Did you Know?Seasonality works differently in Bull Markets vs Bear Markets"Sell in May" is really a Bear Market thing... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Image2.Gold miners are trading at the steepest relative value discount since the peak of the dot com bubble...That tells us 2 Very Important thingsImage3.The forward looking or prospective Equity Risk Premium is set to be *negative* for the USA...But *positive* for everyone else.How could this be?Image4.Chart of the day. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image

1.Meme Stocks.It was supposed to be some weird David vs Goliath thing, but ultimately it really was about a few lucky individuals getting in early, and the subsequent arrival of dumb money who followed the pied piper and lost.Beware of folk selling get rich quick, because it may not be you that gets rich quick! 😲Image2.This is perhaps *the* most important chart of the past few years, it helped in detecting key shifts in monetary policy settings ─ and that’s really been a key macro call to get right in this day and age.Image3.The mountains and valleys of years gone by in Emerging Markets vs US Equities relative performance... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

Wine vs StocksLess Bubbles, more Bubble.I don't know about you but I feel like I see more and more people giving up on drinking -- and just about the opposite sentiments on stocks.While investing in stocks is probably a much better health decision, I would say at this point in the cycle I don't know if it's the optimal wealth decision. 🤔 ImageWhy have US Equities so massive outperformed vs global?Hint: check the earningsRelative price performance follows relative earnings performance...Image2024 Gold market returns in perspective, 2025 gold price Forecasts, comparisons of the scope and size of Gold vs Bitcoin... $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ ImageImageImageImage

1.Sometimes the Technology wins, but investors lose...Key case study here -- railway stocks showed a ton of promise and helped investors build a lot of wealth in the first half of the 1800's, but it was pretty much a one-way track (sorry) thereafter!Can you think of any such case today?Image2.Gold vs Agri CommoditiesA curious echo-trend with significant implications... $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ ImageGold Miners are trading at the steepest relative Value Discount since the peak of the dot com bubble...Here's why they can be considered Defensive + a bullish bet: Image3.JGB 10yr Yields -- what a journey!Image

1.Higher For Longer: This chart was key in 2024 by stopping us getting too bullish on bonds, as a new higher range-trade took hold...Image2.Moar Moore’s LawGood cause for long-term optimism.Albeit, n.b. even as humanity as a whole wins from the onward march of technological progress, the individual winners vs losers will be in near-constant flux + difficult to pick with precision.Image3.US PE Ratios about 2x that of Chinawhy?Because it's ""obvious"" --> explained: Image4.Gold vs Bitcoin: when 5th cycle?If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a large wave of outperformance by Gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $CME Bit

Based on the Fed's past reaction function it has No Business cutting rates on either labor or inflation.ImageImageIn fact, if anything, you might argue the FFR should be closer to 6%.Of course they're not going to hike, but this tells us something very important... Our job is not to make policy arguments or opine on what they should/should not do, it's to take stock of what they are going to do and then try make the most of it.If the Fed does get bullied into cutting rates when rates should actually be higher what does that tell us?It tells us that rates are going to be WAY easier than they "should be" ---- that's bullish for gold/crypto/stocks.(and key: eventually also for inflation assets e.g. commodities, as the Fed runs things too easy and stokes up inflation resurgence risk)Remember t

1.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns ---but gotta say the recent experience leaves a lot to be desired... $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image2.China is back in the market, who's driving the market into 2025, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ vs Bond market echoes, and Work required to buy gold...3.Crazy Chart-bubbles are not a new thing-even the smartest muck it up--how can you learn from this?Image4.Stockmarket investors don't care about yield.(at least that's the message we get in the chart below)The US stockmarket dividend yield is close to 1% --a bit more if you include the impact of buybacks, but still far below fixed income alte

1.US Assets had a Golden DecadeIt started from a generational buying opportunity in 2009 (nothing has come close since)And now we find things generationally risky (but global assets look cheap)It's time to discard your biases and have a big rethink $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.The US dollar has peaked (and it makes fundamental sense: if the US goes through a growth + confidence shock and rest of world plods along… ultimately that’s what exchange rates reflect; relative macro strength) Image3.I don't think I've ever been so depressed to see a stock chart doing so well -- great for investors, great for the military industrial complex, not so great for humanity.I know there are