Gold Breakout Analogs $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ The excellent Ronnie Stoeferle remarks: “Looking at historical analogs of major gold breakouts (1972, 1978, 2007, average), 2024 could mark the start of a multi-year rally with extraordinary potential. Could this be the era where gold crosses $10,000 per ounce? The parallels with the past are too strong to ignore, and the implications for investors are profound“. Media Mute on GoldMarin Katusa muses on the lack of media coverage of gold: “Despite a 70% price surge since 2020, news mentions of gold are at historic lows. The precious metal's meteoric rise appears to be flying under the radar“. Gold ReservesJan Nieuwenhuijs notes: “gold’s share of total reserves is sharply going up. According to my

1.Pro-tip: don't try predict recession $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Just watch stocks.When the stockmarket stops going up and peaks, that's your clue.But that's only one piece of the puzzleImage2.Metals mired in a Macro Risk Sandwichi.e. Recession vs Reacceleration riskThrow in (geo)political uncertainty and it's a recipe for stalemate, volatility, and confusion. But still, we reckon this is *the* market to watch: Image3.Tariffic -- S&P500 companies get over 40% of their revenues outside of the USAOne of those things that's both a strength + weaknessImage

1.Tariffic -- S&P500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ companies get over 40% of their revenues outside of the USAOne of those things that's both a strength + weaknessImage2.This is an outstanding chart.-Large repeating cycle-Just hit an extreme-Now turning upLook for smalls to reclaim ground vs large caps in the coming years.Image3.Chart from the January Gold Market Chartbook --the "Global Gold price A/D line" It tracks price movements of gold in 14 different currencies, ...and the Key Point is the strength in gold is broad-based with strong bullish momentum globally. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image

1.Returns and Rankings: There are clear winners and losers across the years. Most notably, winners rarely stay winners for long, losers rarely lose for long, and they often switch places! Sectors matter. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.This chart shows some major generational shifts in investor behavior over time, who's to say we won't see some big changes in the decades ahead?Image3.Hours of Work to buy 1 oz of Gold approaching a record high!Are wages too low? or is gold too high?(or should we be asking to be paid in gold!) $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image4. let's be real here: this chart is probably going to be Wrong.But there may still

1.Investors are increasingly all-in on stocks(just as valuations reach new highs 🥴 )Image2.Tech innovation or Financial innovation?US Profit Margin expansion over the past couple of decades has been driven much more by financial innovation (lower taxes and interest expense) than any kind of technological innovation.Problem is, while AI might help, it will be hard to repeat this... and if anything some of this might reverse. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Like most, I did not see DeepSeek coming, but what I did see coming (as outlined in the link below) is the huge potential for a big Shock to consensus that expects nothing from China and everything from America.Image

1.Global Gold market-cap-to-GDP RatioMarket commentators often look at the Stockmarket cap to GDP ratio as a valuation indicator... so what do you think -- is Gold overvalued? $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image2.stock & bond yields...Makes you wonder what the next 150 years will look like 🤔 ⌛Image3.This indicator is not perfect, but it's better than most, and it's telling us some important things about the risk outlook. (low = risk is high)Image4.New all-time highs in US$ #GoldThis follows the previous breakout to new ATH in the Global Gold Price Index a couple of weeks ago.(in other words, the strength in the US$ Gold price is confirmed by the strength in global gold markets)Are you bullish? or are you bullish?🤔Image5.Geopolitical Risk is h

1.We've just lived through some of the best times in history for investors, but with good times comes amnesia to the worst times of history.Things can get bad, real bad.The upside is we can learn from history, try to manage risk, diversify, and ideally get a lead on big changes and pressures building up in the system.Image2.The relationship between Gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ and TIPS yields broke down in 2022...That points to 2 Key possibilitiesImage3.As stockmarket turmoil breaks out, expect to see more interest in Defensives like Gold (which already has solid price momentum in play)More detail on Gold Price drivers +OutlookImage4.Sometimes the stockmarket stays in a 20-year trading range, other times it cycles around multi-year uptrends

1.China: gold price vs bond yieldsChina/EM have been in the driver's seat of the gold price (both in terms of the geopolitics and reserves diversification aspect, but also on the macro/markets side of things) $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.Where-to next for the black line?Is it already as low as it goes, or can Trump & team take it even lower?Key questions as falling effective tax rates have had a huge impact on earnings over the past few decades...Image3.How the stock market cycle works...Theory vs Practice😅 😵‍💫Image4.No Fun for Active Funds Over a 3 decade period:59% of funds did *not* survive31% survived but lagged the index10% survived and beat the indexWhether or not it's fun, it ain't easy. $

1.Buy & Hold?Hold on a minute...If you buy and hold the S&P500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ index, you're not actually buying and holding, you're really buying an interest in a constantly shuffling set of stocks -- and in 10 year's time you may well not recognize 1/3 stocks in your portfolio!Image2.Non-rec Bulls 🤔 This chart shows the history of Bull markets coming out of Recession (most often large, triple digit gains) vs those *not* preceded by recession circled in blue (still significant but shorter, smaller by comparison). One implication is that the current one looks about fully-cooked.3."Cyclically-Adjusted Earnings" This chart tells you all you need to know about US vs global equity relative performance...(and likely will hold key clues in terms of

Here's 4 charts that spell-out where we are + what's at stake right now with a potential Bursting of the AI BubbleEmotion Cycle Stage = EuphoriaValuation Cycle Stage = ExpensiveHype Cycle Stage = Inflated ExpectationsSoros Bubble Process = Moment of Truth?ImageImageImageImagei.e. re the Chinese breakthrough AI model DeepSeek, which was achieved with much lower cost (denting Capex/Chips bullishness), and likely placing pressure on already tenuous margin expectations for AI commercialization, which has triggered panic selling of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Now, the price action in NVDA is knee-jerk, and it likely will rebound on Turn around Tuesday -- but as noted we are at a delicate stage of the cycle and the extreme confidence in the AI Hype bull market could

1.US Corporate Profit Margins-tech has found a new higher plateau-non-tech has trended up over timeThank you 🙏 -lower interest rates-lower tax rates-higher productivity-higher share of global revsImage2.One reason for US equities outperforming Global equities for much of the past 10-15 years has been the consistently higher profitabilityUS RoE out-punches the rest.Image3.The Great Deleveraging Thanks to scars of the financial crisis spurring folk to be more prudent with debt and of course — more-to-the-point: the dream run in stocks and property on the asset side...US household leverage (as measured by debt as a % of assets) has dropped to multi-decade lows. Who da thunk it.Image

1.Where do stockmarket returns come from? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Dividends: consistent (but falling)Earnings: but with variation through the economic cycleValuation changes: with major variation through the market/financial cycleImage2.Non-rec Bulls 🤔 This chart shows the history of Bull markets coming out of Recession (most often large, triple digit gains) vs those *not* preceded by recession circled in blue (still significant but shorter, smaller by comparison). One implication is that the current one looks about fully-cooked.Image3.Stockmarket investors Income Growth over timeImage4.Credit & Equity are in agreement 🤝 These competing claims on corporate assets can agree on one

1.BOJ continues policy normalization push, hikes +25bps to 0.50% -- last time they hiked to that level was early-2007Capping off one crazy experiment with another 👺Image2.I realized something the other day...There's a funny duality in markets at the moment -- it seems many people can agree that European stocks are extremely cheap vs US, and many people also agree on the weaknesses and challenges facing Europe vs the upsides and strengths enjoyed by US stocks.Cheap for a reason = It's in the price.Image3.Even after factoring in dividends, "lost decades" are something that seems to come along about at least once per generationIf only there were a way to manage this risk and prepare.......... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S

1.Tale of two Stockmarkets right there!Two questions:-can tech earnings keep surging?-when will non-tech shake-off stagnation?Image2."stocks go up in the long-run"Yep, but they also go through some pretty major cycles.This is a *good* thing for investors who are prepared to manage risk and capture opportunities. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Initial breakout in Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ , surge in Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ shorts (squeeze coming?), Deep Value in Gold Miners, and a look at who Holds the most Gold...

Investing Statistics you should Know:"as an index investor you will definitely see numerous 10-20% drawdowns along your path, and most likely at least one -40% downturn during your lifetime"Not dooming.Just zooming in on reality:--> be prepared.(emotionally + strategically) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageThe History of Bull vs Bear marketsNotice anything?ImageTech is Extreme ExpensiveNon-Tech is non-cheapHave a hmm: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2503(NQmain)$ Image

1.More Moore's Law!Don’t bet against Moore’s Law it seems, particularly as AI, robotics, AR/VR, health, space, and geopolitics, etc likely add further demand, impetus and urgency to progress.Good cause for longer-term optimism. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Image2.The new administration is 100% right to be driving an "AI Manhattan Project" ---US tech stocks have crushed their global peers, but complacency could turn that parabola into a sine wave!Image3.Central Bank Gold ReservesInteresting thing on this is how even after their big buy-up, Russia & China lag far behind USA + Eurozone holdings of gold. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image

1.Everyone wants American assets.This is a big turnaround from 2009, where deep in crisis the American financial system went right to the brink.Good thing that will never happen again.Right>?? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Image2.Defensives.Delight or Disaster?2025 OutlookImage3."Deep Value"I've mentioned before: -nobody likes gold miners...More metals & miners Charts $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image4.US Market Cap to GDP ratio reached an all-time high late last year. Powering it forward has been a number of forces and factors including globalization of US corporate earnings. Question is, does this

1.USA vs the WorldIf you buy an index fund on the MSCI World index (Developed markets), only about 25% of that fund will be invested in the "world"No wonder investors seem to have an attitude of why bother with global (or even non-tech stocks for that matter)Image2."Macro Risk Sandwich" 🥪 Huh?Yup, big thing for 2025:Image3.Tech is Extreme ExpensiveNon-Tech is non-cheapHave a hmm: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image4.Fund manager cash allocations -lightest since 2021Image5.Silver Short Squeeze coming?More charts on precious metals & miners: $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ Image

1.Sell Low, Buy High.Yup -- in the world of credit spreads things are upside down...And what else is upside down?The logic that credit spreads should be at 17-year lows at a time where forward looking risk is the highest in years.Image2.Unequal Weighted...The top 10 stocks of the cap-weighted S&P500 $.SPX(.SPX)$ carry a weighting almost 20x that of their equivalent standing in the equal-weighted index.Over the long-run the equal-weighted index has outperformed the cap weighted, and this is why -- the cap weighted skews heavily into the hottest, largest, most mature and overvalued stocks... and lightly into the newer, smaller, cheaper stocks.(also, makes you think --are you really as diversified as you think you are?)Image3.Despite some fairly