The equity markets of Developed Markets (DM) economies are going through a slow roll in the year so far as recessionary indicators continue to be prevalent while not enough are flashing red to call for a recession in the biggest DM of all: the United States. This colours how the markets can be expected to perform in the next six months. JPMorgan estimates that while core inflation is likely to cool, the inflation slide is likely to prove incomplete. An actual recession would go a long way in cooling high valuations and increasing affordability. There, in the absence of a recession, the bank forecasts that global core inflation will remain well above 3% through the end of 2024. Of all possible scenarios, the dominant one indicates a 36% probability of a synchronized recession sometime in 20

Tesla ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$) was and continues to be a high-conviction stock. Even at a time when retail investor interest in the U.S. has been at net lows, institutional investors and tactical players such as hedge funds, et al, have been quite active in recent weeks in the markets. However, while the markets have been rising, the bulk of the movement was centred on 7 stocks – predominantly Big Tech – along with a few names either in or adjacent to the ongoing “AI Bubble”. There is some evidence of a sector rotation being attempted, but conviction hasn’t been strong enough to indicate there being a consensus on market recovery. The reason being is that macro indicators do not indicate an easing of the affordability crisis among the American cons

Many asset managers assume a zero-sum game between Developed Market (DM) economies and Emerging Markets (EM) economies. However, this excludes macroeconomic data and empirical observations. Indian equities stand as possibly the greatest case in point and have been witnessing an upsurge in recent time on the back of a number of structural reforms. Macro Trends The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the Indian economy’s GDP in real terms will display a growth rate that would outstrip that of most Emerging and Developing Asian countries as well as that of all Advanced Asian countries over the course of this year and the next, at the least. The expectation is that India will grow by 5.9% in FY 2023–24 and by an average rate of 6.1% over the next five years. This growth story isn’

In the 38th week of the year (ending 23rd of September), the United Auto Workers (UAW) union discussed intensifying its strikes against the "Big Three" - Ford ($Ford(F)$), General Motors ($General Motors(GM)$) and Stellantis ($Stellantis NV(STLA)$) - by going beyond a single assembly plants for each carmaker to plants that produce more profitable vehicles such as Ford's F-150, GM's Chevy Silverado and Stellantis' (Dodge) Ram on Friday. The initial strike by UAW was unprecedented: the union had never initiated action against all three carmakers simultaneously before. As of Friday of the 38th week, 38 plants within the “Big Three’s” manufacturing ecosystem in the U.S. h

On the 12th of September, Apple Inc ( $Apple(AAPL)$ launched the iPhone 15 and its associated variants. While some media reports and die-hard Apple enthusiasts have been positive, it bears remembering that the smartphone market is a crowded space with significant global fragmentation and a myriad of varieties tailored for different budgets and utilization parameters. The contextualization of this device's release and what it could mean for the company's fortunes is in order. iPhone vs. Other Flagship Models Over the past few years, the company's iPhone family has seen two ascendant rivals: the Galaxy family by Samsung ($Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$) and the Pixel family by Google (

As of last week, the entirety of the Eurozone is in the throes of an electricity crisis. Almost very significant country in the Continent is now operating at electricity prices north of EUR 600/MWh.For context, the previous decade's average electricity cost was in the EUR 20-30/MWh range, signifying a nearly 20X increase over a 10-year period. In the year-ahead timeframe, both Germany and France are particularly hard hit and showing very strong correlation - with France's electricity costs now exceeding Germany's. This is a particularly trenchant problem for a country’s economy: electricity is a necessary “input” for factories, offices and tech companies to continue operating. With even the year-ahead price trajectories spiking upwards, the prospect of increasing costs affecting compa

For its September update of its iconic Fund Manager Survey (which has been covered before), Bank of America ($Bank of America(BAC)$), 212 panellists managing $616 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) participated and provided some fascinating (and prescient) insight. Since the last survey (held in August), the percentage of respondents expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months has increased by 5%. “Stagflation” expectations, i.e. below-trend growth and above-trend inflation, are now at a record high.With regard to the Eurozone, the survey records a recession to be most likely as a result of the energy crisis (as predicted in previous articles)Now, over in the US, the Fed Rate hike is pinned as a major influence

Last week, it was confirmed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.3% year-on-year. Given that July's CPI of 8.5% was a little less than the previous month's 9.1%, a continued downtrend would have been an indicator that US recession was showing signs of recovery. August's number - in slight excess of forecasted estimates - this indicator doesn't hold water. Since the announcement, the S&P 500 dropped 4.32% over the day. In Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey edition in July (which was discussed in an earlier article), it was estimated by the survey organizer that CPI month-on-month pivots has no means for reducing inflation rise

San Jose-headquartered Super Micro Computer, Inc ($SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ ) - better known as "Supermicro" - had been in operation for a long time and was relatively unmarkable in that it was just one of a number of companies building servers and storage systems for computing hardware (among other server-related areas). The company doesn't manufacture chips, per se, but rather assembles the server around a chipmaker's products in the most efficient manner. The founder, Charles Liang, holds several patents in server technology and the company went on to become one of the largest producers of high-performance and high-efficiency servers. His wife was the treasurer until 2019 (she remains on the board of directors) and his brothers run

In 2019, Jack Ma, the "chief founder" of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (ticker: $Alibaba(BABA)$), Jack Ma, stepped down as chairman and gave way to co-founder Daniel Zhang Yong who rapidly went on to be enter the roster of Time Magazine's 100 most influential people in 2020. Alibaba's sprawling business empire was long considered to be driven by those in the chairman's seat. This, however, changed in April 2023 when the company announced that it will split into 6 units - each of which will managed by its own CEO and board of directors. These units will be free to pursue independent fundraising and a public listing. Taiwanese-Canadian lawyer and long-time Hong Kong resident Joseph Chung-Hsin Tsai – who left a $700,000-a-year job with Sweden's Walle