Lionel8383
Lionel8383
captainmarket.co
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avatarLionel8383
2023-07-22

Portfolio review - Update & Earnings Strategy

Five of the Magnificent Seven are in my portfolio  Currently the portfolio is up 54.9% year-to-date, although at the beginning of the month it peaked at 59.1%. I do own 5 of the Magnificent Seven stocks, where Meta & Microsoft are the best performers in my portfolio, they are around fair value right now. I have divested from Apple on the run up, as it is about 26% over valued. As for Amazon & Alphabet, they are still undervalued and I will add more shares if they fall after earnings. As for Nvidia & Tesla, they are way over valued, so that won't be a consideration as the downside is more than the upside. One of the underdogs that has surprised me was Salesforce, I did not expect them to launch their AI product at all. The sole black sheep is Disney, which is down by 20% on
Portfolio review - Update & Earnings Strategy
avatarLionel8383
2023-09-29

Bond market at 3 year low TLT ETF

The U.S. treasury yields have spiked up recently, especially since the last Fed meeting where rates are expected to remain higher for longer, and the Fed has projected that they will need to hike one more time if needed. Treasury yields as of Friday prior to market open US 10 year yield The US 10 year treasury yield hit a high of 4.68% as of Thursday September 28, but has since pullback after the latest PCE inflation data on Friday.  The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 3.9% Y/Y in August, the first time in two years that the measure has dropped below 4%, the Commerce Department said Friday. That's progress toward, but still short of, the Fed's 2% goal. Core PCE, which strips out the volatile energy and food sectors, giving the central bank a better sense of
Bond market at 3 year low TLT ETF
avatarLionel8383
2023-10-07

Watch out! The yield curve is un-inverting

Since early August this year when the S&P 500 peaked around 4,600 points, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield has increased from below 4.0% to around 4.8%. US 10 Year Treasury Yield Obviously with the U.S. 10 Year at record levels last seen in August 2007, the markets freaked out lately whenever inflation data came in hotter than expected that enforced the rhetoric that the Federal Reserve will hike one more time in 2023. The last time the U.S. 10 Year Treasury topped 4.5% was in August 2007 Equity valuations are usually compared with a risk-free rate, where most analysts peg it to the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield. Yield Curve Un-Inversion Taking Place T10Y2Y The chart above shows the U.S. 10-year minus the U.S. 2-year, which currently sits at minus 30 basis points. Compared to early July,
Watch out! The yield curve is un-inverting
avatarLionel8383
2022-08-14

Apple is just 8.3% from $3 trillion market cap

Apple $Apple(AAPL)$became the world's first$3 trillion company for a brief time during intraday trading on Jan 3 this year. Due to the bear market in 2022, Apple has fallen to a 52-week low of $129.04 but has recovered most ofits losses in the last 2 months, and now is valued at $2.77 trillion market cap. That's just another 8.3% to the $3 trillion market cap. It is now 6.3% away from its 52-week and all time high of $182.94.AAPL YTD -5.44%Recent news have been quite bullish for Apple, as it is just about a month away from iPhoneseason, where it is rumoured that Apple askedits suppliers to increase production for its next iPhone, and the iPhone 14 is expected to seeas much as 15% increase in prices. Some analysts have also said that Apple may
Apple is just 8.3% from $3 trillion market cap
avatarLionel8383
2022-09-16

Adobe plunged almost 17%, value buy or trap?

Adobe ( $Adobe(ADBE)$) plunged almost 17% on Thursday when it reported its earnings. This was in addition to the market's reaction on its $20 billion deal on acquiring Figma, a collaborative design platform developer, in a half cash, half stock in which Figma's employees would receive 6 million additional Adobe restricted stock units that will vest over four years from closure of the deal.Adobe expects Figma to add to the company's earnings by the third year of the after the deal's completion, and it suggests that Adobe's earnings would see a negative impact for two years.Additionally, Adobe guided their fourth quarterfiscal 2022 revenue to $4.52 billion and EPS of $3.50 per share, while analysts had expected$4.6 billion and $3.47 EPS.In terms of
Adobe plunged almost 17%, value buy or trap?
avatarLionel8383
2023-07-01

2023 Mid Year Recap

Sharing my 2023 Mid Year performance. Little did I expect that Meta would be the best performer in my portfolio this year. I remembered back in October/November last year, I was debating if I should sell my Meta position to cut loss. Considering that I had already been in it since May 2022, I decided to just ignore the P&L segment or just went on to watch Netflix during market hours back then. Top 5 Performers My top 5 positions in terms of performance are: Meta +83.48% Apple +35.77% Microsoft +30.24% Salesforce +19.92% Amazon +19.47% The S&P 500 is up 16.37% in the first six months of 2023, and Nasdaq Composite is up 32.74%, while the Dow Jones is the laggard up 3.83% in 2023, this was really surprising as at the start of the year, the media and doomsday prophets were all saying t
2023 Mid Year Recap
avatarLionel8383
2024-01-20

Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks

A recent article on SCMP revealed that pessimism in Chinese stocks has been the highest amongst foreign investors.  The recent fund managers survey by Bank of America Global Research found that fund managers are now more net short on Chinese equities compared to the previous three months, and also are more bullish on the Japanese market.  BofA Global Research FMS survey Indeed the Chinese CSI 300 index, which comprises of 300 top companies listed on Shanghai & Shenzhen Exchanges is now down 4.5% in 2024. Over the past 6 months, it is down 14.3%, and past one year down 20.7% Stocks like Alibaba, perhaps a hot favourite among investors here have suffered greatly. Year-to-date Baba is down 12.2%, after paring back some losses on Friday afternoon due to monthly options expiration
Can’t stop the rot in Chinese stocks
avatarLionel8383
2022-08-19
Is GigaCloud the next AMTD? GigaCloud Technology $GigaCloud Technology Inc(GCT)$traded for the first time opening at $19.20 after pricing 2.94 million Class A ordinary shares at IPO price of $12.25. The stock reached a high of $21.22, before sliding to alow of $12.51. The stock closed at $15.69 but has since gained about 16% in after hours, at $18.20.Based in Hong Kong, GigaCloud provides e-commerce solutions for the discovery, payment and shipping of large merchandise such as furniture and appliances. The company connects manufacturers based primarily in Asia with online resellers in Asia, the US and Europe.Total outstanding shares is 30.43 million, compared to the 2.94 million available shares. Will this become the next AMTD
avatarLionel8383
2023-01-28

S&P 500 breakout into bull market?

The S&P500 gained 2.47% this week at 4070.56, adding to the overall positive start to 2023. It has since gained in three out of the first four weeks of 2023. S&P 500 breakout It has finally broke out of the long term trend line in red that also coincided with the 200 MAand managed to stay above it this week. The 50 MA is above 150 MA, and the 50 MA is getting close to crossing over the 200 MA (but not yet). Will Powell throw cold water at the market? Ahead of the FOMC meeting and rate hike decision to come on Feb 1, the market expects 25 basis points hike to bring the Fed funds rateto 4.5% to 4.75%, current probabilities from the CME FedWatch tool show 99.2% of a 25 bp hike. CME FedWatch tool for Feb 1st Looking ahead at the March and May meetings, the market has 82% chance th
S&P 500 breakout into bull market?
avatarLionel8383
2022-08-26
$Apple(AAPL)$Heading towards the next iPhone 14! Maybe I should get a new MacBook Pro M2 if it launches at the same event!

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