666六六六666 personal page - To The Moon

666六六六666

666六六六666

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666六六六666

2022-02-13

S51 up

666六六六666

2022-09-01

$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$r

666六六六666

2022-09-05

Henhao

This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings

666六六六666

2022-09-05

Hai

This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings

666六六六666

2022-08-30

$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$e

666六六六666

2022-11-09

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

Chinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%

666六六六666

2022-03-30

Good

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666六六六666

2022-12-06

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

666六六六666

2022-11-30

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

666六六六666

2022-11-09

[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

One second down limit, the suspected "Oolong Finger" reappears! What happened?

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-08 22:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 8, Chinese concept stocks fell, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Nio fell more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c80c78aaefe54585a0f41a43b9c461\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159632":"纳斯达克","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4007":"制药",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","ARTL":"Artelo Biosciences, Inc.","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131581111","content_text":"11月8日，中概股走低，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3%，贝壳跌超7%，好未来、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、蔚来跌超5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159632":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"ARTL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"NDX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987563556,"gmtCreate":1667951165975,"gmtModify":1676537988241,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987563556","repostId":"1126208578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126208578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667887866,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126208578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-08 14:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"One second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126208578","media":"上海证券报","summary":"11月8日开市，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211以跌停开盘，随后出现快速拉升，大幅收窄跌幅，截至午市收盘，该合约跌0.53%。IM2211合约一秒跌停11月8日9点29分，中证1000期指主力合约","content":"<p><div>When the market opened on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, opened at the lower limit, and then rose rapidly, narrowing the decline significantly. As of the midday close, the contract fell 0.53%. The IM2211 contract fell to the limit in one second. At 9:29 on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, suddenly hit the limit and then quickly rose. As of the midday close, the decline of the IM2211 contract narrowed to 0.53%. It is worth noting that when the IM2211 contract abnormally hit the lower limit, the CSI 1000 index IM2212, IM2303 and IM2306...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-08 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When the market opened on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, opened at the lower limit, and then rose rapidly, narrowing the decline significantly. As of the midday close, the contract fell 0.53%. The IM2211 contract fell to the limit in one second. At 9:29 on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, suddenly hit the limit and then quickly rose. As of the midday close, the decline of the IM2211 contract narrowed to 0.53%. It is worth noting that when the IM2211 contract abnormally hit the lower limit, the CSI 1000 index IM2212, IM2303 and IM2306...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159845":"中证1000","000001.SH":"上证指数","000852.SH":"中证1000"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126208578","content_text":"11月8日开市，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211以跌停开盘，随后出现快速拉升，大幅收窄跌幅，截至午市收盘，该合约跌0.53%。IM2211合约一秒跌停11月8日9点29分，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211突然触及跌停板，随后迅速拉升。截至午市收盘，IM2211合约跌幅收窄至0.53%。值得注意的是，在IM2211合约异常触及跌停板时，中证1000指数IM2212、IM2303和IM2306合约均运行正常。对此，有期货人士向记者表示：“初步估计可能是某个机构程序走错了，开盘按跌停价卖了，但开盘集合竞价阶段不能撤单，导致最终成交出现‘乌龙指’。”中州期货首席宏观研究员李婷婷表示：“由于IM2211在跌停时成交价为多单平仓，因此推测可能是由于报单出现错误。但幸运的是，今日‘乌龙指’事件相关成交手数不足百手。由于中证1000本身上市时间短，流动性相对小，因此并未造成较大影响，其他股指期货均正常运行。”四大原因导致“乌龙指”事件“乌龙指”一旦出现，往往引起投资者的广泛关注。2013年8月16日，A股市场突发极为罕见的离奇暴涨，大批权重股被瞬间拉至涨停板，股指期货、蓝筹ETF同步暴涨。上证指数短时间内大幅拉升，一分钟内涨超5%，最高涨幅5.62%，盘中逼近2200点。此次事件系光大证券衍生品部门进行量化套利时下单失误所致。按照8月16日的收盘价，上述交易的当日盯市损失约为1.94亿元。通过分析2016年以来IH、IF、IC三大股指期货在所有合约上发生的较大的“乌龙指”事件，华泰期货认为“乌龙指”出现原因大致可以分为以下几类：一是开盘集合竞价阶段某方挂单数较大，挂单价格偏离较多，缺乏足够对手方；二是正常行情的盘中某方挂单数较大，挂单价格偏离较多，对手方订单簿缺乏深度；三是某一合约出现“乌龙指”，从而带动其他同时上市合约价格同样出现“乌龙指”；四是极端行情下，某方挂单价格偏离极大，错估市场承接力。近两年A股股指期货的流动性有十足进步，整体持仓量已跃居世界前列，但在IH、IF、IC三个股指期货上的“乌龙指”事件并未减少。“这背后折射出的是股指期货市场仍然有持续进入的‘新玩家’，这部分‘新玩家’的资金体量并不低，很容易对市场造成冲击性影响，需要各位投资者高度注意。”华泰期货相关人士提醒道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159845":0.9,"000852.SH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984569165,"gmtCreate":1667693473957,"gmtModify":1676537951752,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984569165","repostId":"2281602653","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984569350,"gmtCreate":1667693463171,"gmtModify":1676537951751,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984569350","repostId":"1133115865","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133115865","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667649875,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133115865?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-05 20:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Berkshire still suffered a net loss in the third quarter, and its investment portfolio lost another $10 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133115865","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在整体下滑的市场中，伯克希尔的股票投资依旧出现亏损。三季度伯克希尔的投资损失为104.5亿美元，2022年前三季度投资亏损达到639亿美元。在三季度美股过山车行情中，股神巴菲特的投资组合仍然出现亏损，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In an overall declining market, Berkshire's stock investments are still losing money. Berkshire's investment loss in the third quarter was US $10.45 billion, and the investment loss in the first three quarters of 2022 reached US $63.9 billion. In the roller coaster market of U.S. stocks in the third quarter, stock god Buffett's investment portfolio still suffered losses, but mainly benefiting from bets on energy stocks, the portfolio losses narrowed significantly.</p><p>On Saturday, November 5, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced its third-quarter financial report. The report showed that the company's revenue in the third quarter of this year was US $76.934 billion, compared with US $70.583 billion in the same period last year, an increase of 9%.</p><p>Operating profit in the third quarter was US $7.761 billion, an increase of 20% from US $6.466 billion in the same period last year. The scope of this profit covers the insurance, railway and utilities businesses owned by the Group, excluding investment gains and losses.</p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business was hit in the third quarter, with the insurance underwriting business losing $962 million, which somewhat dragged down the operating profit in the third quarter.</b>In the current period, affected by Hurricane Ian, the frequency and severity of claims in the automotive industry have been increasing.</p><p>In terms of remaining businesses, insurance investment profits were US $1.408 billion, higher than US $1.161 billion in the same period last year, and utilities and energy business profits were US $1.585 billion, higher than US $1.496 billion in the same period last year; Profit from the railroad business decreased to $1,442 million from $1,538 million in the same period in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635bcdb2e0a9521ce6164b1e0989b0e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the second quarter financial report,<b>Due mainly to losses in investment and derivatives portfolios, Berkshire Hathaway's net loss attributable to shareholders in the third quarter was $2.69 billion, compared with a profit of $10.34 billion in the same period last year.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, U.S. stocks experienced a roller coaster market. The S&P 500 first ushered in a strong rebound from July to mid-August, and then fell all the way to the end of September.</p><p>In an overall declining market, Berkshire's stock investments are still losing money. Berkshire's investment loss in the third quarter was US $10.45 billion, and the investment loss in the first three quarters of 2022 reached US $63.9 billion.</p><p>Once again, Buffett told investors that the amount of book investment gain (loss) in any quarter \"usually doesn't make sense.\"</p><p>However, compared with the investment loss of US $53 billion in the second quarter, its investment portfolio loss narrowed to US $10.45 billion in the third quarter, driving a significant reduction in the net profit loss in the third quarter. In the second quarter, the company's net profit loss was US $43.755 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5b3bea058e914a12594a873f7e0a70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The financial report shows that as of the end of the third quarter, about 73% of Berkshire's holdings were concentrated in five companies: American Express (US $20.5 billion), Apple (US $126.5 billion), Bank of America (US $31.2 billion), Coca-Cola Company (US $22.4 billion), Chevron (US $24.4 billion).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393b3b9a14716791495e156c3b04fb21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Only Apple has fallen worse this year than the S&P 500's 21% decline, which is down 24%, which is equivalent to the decline since the beginning of the year when its second-quarter earnings report was released. Bank of America and American Express were-20% and-14% respectively, narrowing the decline since the beginning of the year when the second quarter financial report was released, which was-32% and-17% respectively.</p><p>Meanwhile, oil prices surged as the Russia-Ukraine conflict put pressure on energy supplies,<b>Chevron is up 54% year-to-date, providing some support to the portfolio</b>, Chevron's gain since the beginning of the year was 21% when the second quarter earnings report was released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3956b24da5aa4f0cfc432f83f82e5cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, Berkshire included Occidental Petroleum's results in its earnings report for the first time in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, Berkshire increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to 194.5 million shares, representing 20.9% of the company's common stock outstanding.</p><p>As of the close on September 30,<b>Berkshire's holdings in Occidental Petroleum are worth nearly $12 billion.</b>Buffet also holds 100,000 shares of Occidental Petroleum Series A preferred shares and warrants, which can buy about 83.9 million shares at an exercise price of $59.624 per share. Including the warrants, the group owns nearly 30% of the oil company.</p><p>It is worth noting that Occidental Petroleum's increase since the beginning of the year has reached 136%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370ae3ac16368edb8ab936c222111ebf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The third-quarter report has not yet reflected Berkshire's $11.6 billion acquisition of specialty insurance company Alleghany, as the deal closed on October 19 after the end of the third quarter.</p><p>In addition,<b>Since the second quarter, Berkshire's repurchase speed has slowed down significantly.</b></p><p>As of the end of the third quarter, the company's cash reserves increased slightly to US $109 billion from US $105.4 billion at the end of the second quarter.</p><p><b>Berkshire repurchased approximately US $1.05 billion in shares in the third quarter, which is equivalent to the approximately US $1 billion in shares repurchased in the previous three months. The cumulative total repurchases in the first three months reached US $5.25 billion.</b></p><p>Analysts had expected the size of buybacks to be roughly the same as the $3.2 billion in the first quarter.</p><p>Berkshire's stock has generally outperformed the broader market so far this year, with Class A shares down about 4% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is down 21%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Berkshire still suffered a net loss in the third quarter, and its investment portfolio lost another $10 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBerkshire still suffered a net loss in the third quarter, and its investment portfolio lost another $10 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">老虎资讯综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-05 20:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In an overall declining market, Berkshire's stock investments are still losing money. Berkshire's investment loss in the third quarter was US $10.45 billion, and the investment loss in the first three quarters of 2022 reached US $63.9 billion. In the roller coaster market of U.S. stocks in the third quarter, stock god Buffett's investment portfolio still suffered losses, but mainly benefiting from bets on energy stocks, the portfolio losses narrowed significantly.</p><p>On Saturday, November 5, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced its third-quarter financial report. The report showed that the company's revenue in the third quarter of this year was US $76.934 billion, compared with US $70.583 billion in the same period last year, an increase of 9%.</p><p>Operating profit in the third quarter was US $7.761 billion, an increase of 20% from US $6.466 billion in the same period last year. The scope of this profit covers the insurance, railway and utilities businesses owned by the Group, excluding investment gains and losses.</p><p><b>Berkshire Hathaway's insurance business was hit in the third quarter, with the insurance underwriting business losing $962 million, which somewhat dragged down the operating profit in the third quarter.</b>In the current period, affected by Hurricane Ian, the frequency and severity of claims in the automotive industry have been increasing.</p><p>In terms of remaining businesses, insurance investment profits were US $1.408 billion, higher than US $1.161 billion in the same period last year, and utilities and energy business profits were US $1.585 billion, higher than US $1.496 billion in the same period last year; Profit from the railroad business decreased to $1,442 million from $1,538 million in the same period in 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/635bcdb2e0a9521ce6164b1e0989b0e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Similar to the second quarter financial report,<b>Due mainly to losses in investment and derivatives portfolios, Berkshire Hathaway's net loss attributable to shareholders in the third quarter was $2.69 billion, compared with a profit of $10.34 billion in the same period last year.</b></p><p>In the third quarter, U.S. stocks experienced a roller coaster market. The S&P 500 first ushered in a strong rebound from July to mid-August, and then fell all the way to the end of September.</p><p>In an overall declining market, Berkshire's stock investments are still losing money. Berkshire's investment loss in the third quarter was US $10.45 billion, and the investment loss in the first three quarters of 2022 reached US $63.9 billion.</p><p>Once again, Buffett told investors that the amount of book investment gain (loss) in any quarter \"usually doesn't make sense.\"</p><p>However, compared with the investment loss of US $53 billion in the second quarter, its investment portfolio loss narrowed to US $10.45 billion in the third quarter, driving a significant reduction in the net profit loss in the third quarter. In the second quarter, the company's net profit loss was US $43.755 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc5b3bea058e914a12594a873f7e0a70\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The financial report shows that as of the end of the third quarter, about 73% of Berkshire's holdings were concentrated in five companies: American Express (US $20.5 billion), Apple (US $126.5 billion), Bank of America (US $31.2 billion), Coca-Cola Company (US $22.4 billion), Chevron (US $24.4 billion).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/393b3b9a14716791495e156c3b04fb21\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Only Apple has fallen worse this year than the S&P 500's 21% decline, which is down 24%, which is equivalent to the decline since the beginning of the year when its second-quarter earnings report was released. Bank of America and American Express were-20% and-14% respectively, narrowing the decline since the beginning of the year when the second quarter financial report was released, which was-32% and-17% respectively.</p><p>Meanwhile, oil prices surged as the Russia-Ukraine conflict put pressure on energy supplies,<b>Chevron is up 54% year-to-date, providing some support to the portfolio</b>, Chevron's gain since the beginning of the year was 21% when the second quarter earnings report was released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3956b24da5aa4f0cfc432f83f82e5cb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In addition, Berkshire included Occidental Petroleum's results in its earnings report for the first time in the third quarter. By the end of the third quarter, Berkshire increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum to 194.5 million shares, representing 20.9% of the company's common stock outstanding.</p><p>As of the close on September 30,<b>Berkshire's holdings in Occidental Petroleum are worth nearly $12 billion.</b>Buffet also holds 100,000 shares of Occidental Petroleum Series A preferred shares and warrants, which can buy about 83.9 million shares at an exercise price of $59.624 per share. Including the warrants, the group owns nearly 30% of the oil company.</p><p>It is worth noting that Occidental Petroleum's increase since the beginning of the year has reached 136%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/370ae3ac16368edb8ab936c222111ebf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The third-quarter report has not yet reflected Berkshire's $11.6 billion acquisition of specialty insurance company Alleghany, as the deal closed on October 19 after the end of the third quarter.</p><p>In addition,<b>Since the second quarter, Berkshire's repurchase speed has slowed down significantly.</b></p><p>As of the end of the third quarter, the company's cash reserves increased slightly to US $109 billion from US $105.4 billion at the end of the second quarter.</p><p><b>Berkshire repurchased approximately US $1.05 billion in shares in the third quarter, which is equivalent to the approximately US $1 billion in shares repurchased in the previous three months. The cumulative total repurchases in the first three months reached US $5.25 billion.</b></p><p>Analysts had expected the size of buybacks to be roughly the same as the $3.2 billion in the first quarter.</p><p>Berkshire's stock has generally outperformed the broader market so far this year, with Class A shares down about 4% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is down 21%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674214\">老虎资讯综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beffeecb928009bf6287e307899ffe3","relate_stocks":{"LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674214","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133115865","content_text":"在整体下滑的市场中，伯克希尔的股票投资依旧出现亏损。三季度伯克希尔的投资损失为104.5亿美元，2022年前三季度投资亏损达到639亿美元。在三季度美股过山车行情中，股神巴菲特的投资组合仍然出现亏损，但主要受益于对能源股的押注，投资组合亏损大幅收窄。11月5日周六，巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司公布了第三季度财报，报告显示，今年第三季度公司营收769.34亿美元，去年同期705.83亿美元，增幅为9%。三季度运营利润为77.61亿美元，较去年同期的64.66亿美元增幅为20%。此项利润的范畴涵盖集团拥有的保险、铁路和公用事业等业务，不包括投资损益。伯克希尔哈撒韦的保险业务在第三季度受到了冲击，保险承保业务损失了9.62亿美元，一定程度上拖累了三季度的营业利润。当期受飓风伊恩(Ian)带来的影响，汽车行业索赔的频率和严重性不断增加。其余业务方面，保险投资利润为14.08亿美元，高于上年同期的11.61亿美元，公用事业和能源业务的利润为15.85亿美元，高于去年同期的14.96亿美元；铁路业务利润从2021年同期的15.38亿美元下降到14.42亿美元。与二季度财报相似，主要由于投资和衍生品投资组合的亏损，伯克希尔哈撒韦第三季度归属于股东的净亏损为26.9亿美元，去年同期为盈利103.4亿美元。三季度，美股经历了过山车行情，标普500先是在7月至8月中旬迎来一波强劲反弹，随后一路下挫至9月底。在整体下滑的市场中，伯克希尔的股票投资依旧出现亏损。三季度伯克希尔的投资损失为104.5亿美元，2022年前三季度投资亏损达到639亿美元。巴菲特再次告诉投资者，任何一个季度的账面投资收益（损失）金额“通常都是没有意义的”。不过，与二季度530亿美元的投资损失相比，三季度其投资组合损失收窄至104.5亿美元，推动三季度的净利润亏损显著减少，二季度该公司净利润亏损437.55亿美元。财报显示，截至三季度末，伯克希尔大约73%的持仓集中在五家公司：美国运通公司（205亿美元）、苹果公司（1265亿美元）、美国银行（312亿美元）、可口可乐公司（224亿美元）、雪佛龙公司（244亿美元）。今年以来，只有苹果的跌幅比标普500指数21%的跌幅更糟一些，其下跌了24%，与二季度财报发布时年初以来的跌幅相当。美国银行、美国运通分别-20%、-14%，较二季度财报发布时年初以来的跌幅收窄，后者分别为-32%、-17%。与此同时，由于俄乌冲突给能源供应带来压力，导致石油价格飙升，雪佛龙今年以来上涨了54%，为投资组合提供了一些支撑，二季度财报发布时雪佛龙年初以来的涨幅为21%。此外，伯克希尔第三季度首次将西方石油的业绩纳入财报。到第三季度末，伯克希尔将其在西方石油的持股增加到1.945亿股，占该公司普通股流通股的20.9%。截至9月30日收盘，伯克希尔持有的西方石油价值近120亿美元。巴菲特还持有10万股西方石油A系列优先股和认股权证，可以每股59.624美元的行权价购买约8390万股。包括认股权证在内，该集团拥有该石油公司近30%的股份。值得注意的是，西方石油年初以来的涨幅达到136%。三季报还没有反映伯克希尔以116亿美元收购专业保险公司Alleghany的情况，因为该交易在第三季度结束后于10月19日完成。另外，二季度以来，伯克希尔的回购速度明显慢了下来。截至第三季度末，该公司现金储备由二季度末1054亿美元，小幅增至1090亿美元。第三季度伯克希尔大约回购了10.5亿美元的股票，与此前三个月回购的约10亿美元股票规模相当，前三个月累计回购总额达到52.5亿美元。分析师此前预计回购规模将与第一季的32亿美元大致相当。今年以来，伯克希尔的股价表现总体好于大盘，A类股今年以来下跌约4%，而标准普尔500指数下跌21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984560797,"gmtCreate":1667693442020,"gmtModify":1676537951743,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] 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[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986406567","repostId":"1116456778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116456778","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666969273,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116456778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-28 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The final value of U.S. consumer confidence index in October was 59.9, better than expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116456778","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"预期59.8，前值59.8。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October in the United States was 59.9, expected to be 59.8, and the previous value was 59.8.</p><p>The U.S. existing home contract sales index recorded a monthly rate of-10.2% in September, the fourth consecutive month of negative value and the lowest since April 2020.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The final value of U.S. consumer confidence index in October was 59.9, better than expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe final value of U.S. consumer confidence index in October was 59.9, better than expected\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-28 23:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October in the United States was 59.9, expected to be 59.8, and the previous value was 59.8.</p><p>The U.S. existing home contract sales index recorded a monthly rate of-10.2% in September, the fourth consecutive month of negative value and the lowest since April 2020.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116456778","content_text":"美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值59.9，预期59.8，前值59.8。美国9月成屋签约销售指数月率录得-10.2%，为连续第四个月录得负值，创2020年4月以来新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986406129,"gmtCreate":1667001103661,"gmtModify":1676537846173,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986406129","repostId":"1190853659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190853659","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666941784,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190853659?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-28 15:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the U.S. economy far from a substantial recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190853659","media":"明晰笔谈","summary":"或于明年上半年步入实质性衰退。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>The decline in private inventories slowed down, corporate investment and government spending increased, the trade deficit narrowed, and the resilience of superimposed service consumption pushed the U.S. GDP to achieve slightly higher-than-expected positive growth in the third quarter. However, at present, some industries in the US economy have shown signs of recession, especially the real estate market. The U.S. economy is already on the verge of recession. In the future, we need to pay attention to the current resilient industry, service industry, and labor market trends. We maintain our previous view that the U.S. economy may experience a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The core PCE inflation stickiness in the third quarter is still high, and it still maintains the judgment that the Fed's rate hike will be around 5% until the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike will be around 5%.</b></p><p><b>Although the GDP of the United States in the third quarter exceeded expectations, its sustainability is doubtful, and some industries have shown signs of recession.</b>In the third quarter, the real GDP of the United States turned positive at an annualized rate, with an initial value of 2.6%; The initial value of the core PCE price index in the third quarter was 4.5%, consistent with expectations and slightly lower than the 4.7% in the second quarter, reflecting that the current core inflation is still highly sticky. Under the environment of the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish rate hike, the interest rate-sensitive U.S. real estate market has begun to deteriorate. The resilience of U.S. consumption is expected to be limited and there have been signs of weakness. The narrowing of the trade deficit in the third quarter is difficult to sustain, especially The strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to lead to a decline in the competitiveness of U.S. goods, and the slowdown of corporate investment will continue. Therefore, the stronger performance of the U.S. economy in the third quarter may be short-lived.</p><p><b>The resilience of U.S. economic growth has diverged, real estate may have fallen into recession, the resilience of consumption is expected to be limited, and the growth rate of non-residential investment has the possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</b>Interest-rate-sensitive real estate has shown signs of recession. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has pushed up mortgage interest rates sharply. Many real estate indicators have shown that the risk of an imminent recession in the U.S. economy is high. Against the background of continued high inflation, future savings and income will have weak support for consumption. In the third quarter, actual personal consumption expenditures declined at an annualized rate month-on-month, and consumption is expected to continue to be weak. Tightening loan conditions and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on demand and profits. The growth rate of non-residential investment in the United States is expected to grow slowly, and there is a possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>However, the relevant indicators of industry and service industries have not yet fallen into the warning range, and the superimposed job market indicators have performed well, indicating that the current risk of economic recession is low.</b>Often, the year-on-year growth rate of the overall industrial output index plummets to zero in one to two quarters (it needs to continue to decline later), which is a sign of the beginning of the economic recession. However, at present, the growth rate of total industrial output is stable near the upper limit of the warning range (0% to 2.5%), and there is no sign of sudden decline; Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI is still higher than 55, so the current risk of economic recession is low. At the same time, the U.S. job market is still resilient. The Sam Rule recession indicator and the new non-farm payrolls indicator show that the current U.S. economy has entered a recession.</p><p><b>A sharp drop in inflation will have to wait at least next year, and the Federal Reserve may stop its rate hike in the first quarter of next year.</b>We believe that there is a possibility that the Fed will slow down its rate hike during the year, and we need to pay close attention to the Fed's stance on the future rate hike path at the November interest rate meeting. A sharp drop in inflation needs to wait at least next year. The current pressure on the supply side has eased, but demand is still resilient. There is limited room for future decline in superimposed energy prices, and the rate of inflation falling during the year may be slow. Considering the downward pressure on the U.S. economy, if there is no new shock on the supply side, the Federal Reserve may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year. From the perspective of taylor rule and real interest rate, the rate hike end point level of around 5% is the desirable tightening level.</p><p><b>Conclusion:</b>Although U.S. GDP rebounded more than expected in the third quarter, U.S. real estate has shown obvious signs of recession. The future resilience of U.S. consumption and the narrowing trend of trade deficit may not be sustainable. Corporate investment is expected to continue to slow down. However, industrial production and services The industry is still booming, the labor market is still strong, and the breadth of the U.S. economic downturn is not expected to reach a substantial recession, and it is expected to enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The pace of the Fed's rate hike is still highly dependent on data, and the slowdown in rate hike is approaching. When the rate hike slows down, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up important data and the Fed's statement. There is a possibility that the rate hike will slow down in December this year. Considering the downward pressure on the US economy, the Fed may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike may be about 5%.</p><p>The decline in private inventories slowed down, corporate investment and government spending increased, the trade deficit narrowed, and the resilience of superimposed service consumption pushed the U.S. GDP to achieve slightly higher-than-expected positive growth in the third quarter. However, at present, some industries in the US economy have shown signs of recession, especially the real estate market. The U.S. economy is already on the verge of recession. In the future, we need to pay attention to the current resilient industry, service industry, and labor market trends. We maintain our previous view that the U.S. economy may experience a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The core PCE inflation stickiness in the third quarter is still high, and it still maintains the judgment that the Fed's rate hike will be around 5% until the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike will be around 5%.</p><p><b>Some industries in the United States have shown signs of recession, and the time of recession is approaching</b></p><p><b>The initial annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the third quarter turned positive, recording 2.6%, slightly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial value of the core PCE price index in the third quarter was 4.5%, consistent with expectations and slightly lower than the 4.7% in the second quarter.</b>The final quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter was-0.6%, and the initial quarter-on-quarter annualized rate in the third quarter was 2.6%, slightly exceeding market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter increase in real GDP in the United States in the third quarter was mainly due to the reduction in the scale of private inventory decline, the rebound in corporate investment, the narrowing of trade deficit (import demand declined and export growth increased slightly), the increase in government expenditure and the resilience of service consumption. In the third quarter, the core PCE only fell slightly from the previous quarter, reflecting that the current core inflation is still highly sticky.</p><p><b>Although some industries in the United States currently have a high risk of recession, the breadth of the risk of economic deterioration is still limited. The U.S. economy is approaching the point of recession, or may enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year.</b>Under the environment of the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish rate hike, the interest rate-sensitive U.S. real estate market has begun to deteriorate. The resilience of U.S. consumption is expected to be limited and there have been signs of weakness. The narrowing of the trade deficit in the third quarter is difficult to sustain, especially The strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to lead to a decline in the competitiveness of U.S. goods, and the slowdown of corporate investment will continue. Therefore, the stronger performance of the U.S. economy in the third quarter may be short-lived. Judging from other economic indicators, the current industrial and service industries are still resilient, and the labor market is still strong. Therefore, although the U.S. economy has experienced a sharp slowdown at present, the breadth of the economic slowdown may not yet reach a substantial recession, but the time of the recession may be approaching, and the United States may enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year.</p><p><b>The resilience of U.S. economic growth has divided, and real estate may have fallen into recession</b></p><p><b>The interest rate-sensitive real estate market has shown signs of recession, or has entered a recession.</b>The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has pushed up mortgage interest rates sharply. The current 15-year and 30-year mortgage interest rates are already at the level of 6%-7% in 2006, which is significantly higher than the long period after the financial crisis and before the impact of the epidemic. 3%-4% level. As a result, more home buyers stopped to wait and see, and housing sales data fell sharply. In August, the S&P/Case-Shiller National House Price Index fell sharply month-on-month. The decline was faster than that during the 2008 financial crisis, so the real estate development business slowed down the construction speed. At present, the house price has continued to grow significantly negatively from the previous month, the housing sales data has fallen into the dangerous range (450,000-600,000 units), and the scale of housing construction is about to fall into the warning range (1.2-1.4 million units). Many real estate indicators show that the risk of an imminent recession in the US economy is high. Considering seasonal factors and the fact that the Federal Reserve will not stop the pace of rate hike in the short term, the real estate market is expected to continue to decline, further dragging down U.S. GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399ff9db5be9ffcc7242cb27bfc3aede\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d779cb3c571579a83e6cefdaa4ac2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7a57283fbdc0da04fcfdcc19aa642b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Against the background of continued high inflation, future savings and income will have weak support for consumption, and consumption is expected to continue to be weak.</b>The growth rate of real income and the growth rate of real deposits are one of the core determinants of consumer expenditure, and high inflation will erode the income level and savings level of residents. Based on the calculation of excess savings, the excess savings obtained by residents after the impact of the epidemic may be exhausted in the fourth quarter, and the actual income growth rate has exceeded the lower limit of the warning range. In the future, excess savings and income will have limited support for consumption. In the third quarter, the actual personal consumption expenditure declined at an annualized rate from the previous quarter, and continued to be in the range of 1%-3%, which is a sign of (impending) economic recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6397ca1f85a0b524fcbe3a2a91f8a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08573c68dab5a3f275797701b5d55b5b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a3bbffb9ae865b04489cd28957cd9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce846d462c59ac0d188315f5483373c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, the relevant indicators of industry and service industries have not yet fallen into the warning range, indicating that their development is still resilient.</b>The overall industrial output index is highly synchronized with the economy. Often, the year-on-year growth rate of the overall industrial output index plummets to zero in one to two quarters (it needs to continue to decline in the future), which is a sign of the beginning of the economic recession. However, at present, the growth rate of total industrial output is stable near the upper limit of the warning range (0% to 2.5%), and there is no sign of sudden drop. Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI is still higher than 55. Judging from these two indicators, the current risk of economic recession is low. If the growth rate of total industrial output plummets below 0 and the non-manufacturing PMI falls below 50, it may reflect that the US economy is about to enter or has entered a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dddaa270460c94f451ab30a2ff4d275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709c24f1da210ad19cf301f15568ca72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Tightening loan conditions and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on demand and profits. The growth rate of non-residential investment in the United States is expected to grow slowly, and there is a possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</b>Non-residential investment improved marginally in the third quarter, with the quarter-on-quarter growth rate rebounding from 0.1% in the second quarter to 3.7%, contributing 0.49% to GDP in the third quarter. Although or due to the low base in the last quarter, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of corporate investment in the third quarter improved, but the overall trend is still downward. High inflation and rapidly rising interest rates have led to a rapid decline in U.S. demand. In September, the manufacturing PMI quickly dropped to 50.9, and new PMI orders have dropped to 47.1. Lending standards have begun to tighten in the second quarter of 2022. The current corporate leverage ratio is at a historical high level. The negative impact of the Fed's continued hawkish rate hike on corporate finance is expected to gradually emerge. At present, the downside risk of the economy is relatively high, and the expectations of enterprises for future operating performance are pessimistic. The downward trend of enterprise investment will continue, and there is a risk of rapid deterioration. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of enterprise investment may turn negative in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad96ecee10a4be2095ce1382663d4322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. job market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>First of all, the unemployment rate rising by 0.5% or more from the previous low is a good synchronous indicator of economic recession, and this indicator shows that the current U.S. labor market is still strong, and it is hard to say that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.</b>Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm proposed an indicator that indicates the beginning of an economic recession: the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (Sahm, 2019) [1], which is constructed as the three-month average unemployment rate and the difference between the previous 12-month low. Sam's recession index greater than 0.5% indicates that the economy is in recession. This index accurately indicates every economic recession after 1970, and can be judged before NBER announces the beginning of the economic recession (NBER announces that there is a lag in the recession). Whether the economy is in recession. Therefore, based on this indicator, it is hard to say that the current US economy has entered a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed072d0bca57c187bb23fe4aa588077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>[1] Sahm C. Direct stimulus payments to individuals [J]. Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy, 2019: 67-92.</p><p><b>At the same time, although the number of new non-farm payrolls has weakened, it has not yet triggered a signal of economic recession.</b>The decline in the number of new non-farm payrolls to the range of 100,000 to 200,000 is a sign that the risk of economic recession is high, while the number of new non-farm payrolls has exceeded 100,000 downward (when there is a continued downward trend rather than a volatile trend) is a more accurate synchronous indicator of economic recession. Since 1960, this signal has only been misjudged in 1967. The accuracy of the indicator is high and the synchronization is strong. When the indicator exceeds 100,000 people, it is usually slightly ahead of the economic recession, with an average of one month ahead of the economic recession. The number of new non-agricultural employment in September (three-month average) was 371,700, which is still far from 100,000. The possibility of a short-term economic recession is small, but economic deterioration will lead to a rapid weakening of the job market. In the future, there is a possibility of rapid deterioration in non-agricultural data and signs of economic recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f438fb8ea5777e917ada2da0d94b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The possibility of Fed rate hike slowing in December exists</b></p><p><b>As for the pace of rate hike during the year, there is the possibility that the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate hike, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the Fed's stance on the future rate hike path at the November interest rate meeting.</b>Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal published an article alluding to the time when the Federal Reserve is considering slowing down its rate hike. Some Federal Reserve officials recently said that the Federal Reserve should start planning to reduce its rate hike and expressed concern about too aggressive rate hike. Market concerns about the economy have risen, rate hike expectations have been lowered, and the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields have declined. Whether the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate hike to 50bps in December in the future requires close attention to the upcoming economic data such as U.S. GDP, subsequent U.S. inflation data, and the Fed's statement at the November interest rate meeting. If U.S. economic data deteriorates rapidly and U.S. inflation remains sticky, there is a possibility that the Fed will slow down its rate hike in December but raise its forecast for the Fed's rate hike endpoint (4.6% in September).</p><p><b>But in the long run, it will take at least next year for inflation to fall sharply.</b>The current pressure on the supply side has eased. The New York Fed's supply chain pressure index has declined for several consecutive months, the freight index has dropped sharply, and the waiting time at U.S. ports has become normal. However, demand is still resilient, and wage growth is expected to remain high in the short term, resulting in high inflation stickiness of core commodities and core services, and limited room for future decline in superimposed energy prices, and the rate of inflation falling during the year may be slow. If geopolitical conflicts do not intensify further, we expect U.S. inflation to be at 6.8%-8.0% by the end of this year. It is expected that in the first half of next year, driven by the lag impact of monetary tightening and the superimposed base effect, U.S. inflation may fall sharply, or fall back to around 6% in the first quarter of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7529fed562506cc18070938dd20ef6a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be376af08e9128c7f2dc0e631858b980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of rate hike may be around 5%.</b>At the end of this year and the first quarter of next year, the U.S. economy and labor market will face higher risks of deterioration. There may be some progress in controlling inflation in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, if there is no new shock on the supply side, the Fed is more likely to stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year. From the perspective of the Taylor rule and real interest rate, although there is a possibility that the Fed's rate hike guidance will be raised again during the year, it is expected that the rate hike end point level will be around 5%, which is a desirable tightening level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9919c4be6d174c5ffcb1ca9db5581f20\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>conclusion</b></p><p>Although U.S. GDP rebounded more than expected in the third quarter, U.S. real estate has shown obvious signs of recession. The future resilience of U.S. consumption and the narrowing trend of trade deficit may be difficult to sustain, and corporate investment is expected to continue to slow down. However, at present, industrial production and service The industry is still booming, the labor market is still strong, and the breadth of the U.S. economic downturn is not expected to reach a substantial recession, and it is expected to enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The pace of the Fed's rate hike is still highly dependent on data, and the slowdown in rate hike is approaching. When the rate hike slows down, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up important data and the Fed's statement. There is a possibility that the Fed's rate hike will slow down in December this year. Considering the downward pressure on the U.S. economy, the Fed may stop the rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike may be about 5%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"mxbt","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the U.S. economy far from a substantial recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. economy far from a substantial recession?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">明晰笔谈</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-28 15:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>CORE POINT</b></p><p><b>The decline in private inventories slowed down, corporate investment and government spending increased, the trade deficit narrowed, and the resilience of superimposed service consumption pushed the U.S. GDP to achieve slightly higher-than-expected positive growth in the third quarter. However, at present, some industries in the US economy have shown signs of recession, especially the real estate market. The U.S. economy is already on the verge of recession. In the future, we need to pay attention to the current resilient industry, service industry, and labor market trends. We maintain our previous view that the U.S. economy may experience a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The core PCE inflation stickiness in the third quarter is still high, and it still maintains the judgment that the Fed's rate hike will be around 5% until the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike will be around 5%.</b></p><p><b>Although the GDP of the United States in the third quarter exceeded expectations, its sustainability is doubtful, and some industries have shown signs of recession.</b>In the third quarter, the real GDP of the United States turned positive at an annualized rate, with an initial value of 2.6%; The initial value of the core PCE price index in the third quarter was 4.5%, consistent with expectations and slightly lower than the 4.7% in the second quarter, reflecting that the current core inflation is still highly sticky. Under the environment of the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish rate hike, the interest rate-sensitive U.S. real estate market has begun to deteriorate. The resilience of U.S. consumption is expected to be limited and there have been signs of weakness. The narrowing of the trade deficit in the third quarter is difficult to sustain, especially The strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to lead to a decline in the competitiveness of U.S. goods, and the slowdown of corporate investment will continue. Therefore, the stronger performance of the U.S. economy in the third quarter may be short-lived.</p><p><b>The resilience of U.S. economic growth has diverged, real estate may have fallen into recession, the resilience of consumption is expected to be limited, and the growth rate of non-residential investment has the possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</b>Interest-rate-sensitive real estate has shown signs of recession. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has pushed up mortgage interest rates sharply. Many real estate indicators have shown that the risk of an imminent recession in the U.S. economy is high. Against the background of continued high inflation, future savings and income will have weak support for consumption. In the third quarter, actual personal consumption expenditures declined at an annualized rate month-on-month, and consumption is expected to continue to be weak. Tightening loan conditions and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on demand and profits. The growth rate of non-residential investment in the United States is expected to grow slowly, and there is a possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</p><p><b>However, the relevant indicators of industry and service industries have not yet fallen into the warning range, and the superimposed job market indicators have performed well, indicating that the current risk of economic recession is low.</b>Often, the year-on-year growth rate of the overall industrial output index plummets to zero in one to two quarters (it needs to continue to decline later), which is a sign of the beginning of the economic recession. However, at present, the growth rate of total industrial output is stable near the upper limit of the warning range (0% to 2.5%), and there is no sign of sudden decline; Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI is still higher than 55, so the current risk of economic recession is low. At the same time, the U.S. job market is still resilient. The Sam Rule recession indicator and the new non-farm payrolls indicator show that the current U.S. economy has entered a recession.</p><p><b>A sharp drop in inflation will have to wait at least next year, and the Federal Reserve may stop its rate hike in the first quarter of next year.</b>We believe that there is a possibility that the Fed will slow down its rate hike during the year, and we need to pay close attention to the Fed's stance on the future rate hike path at the November interest rate meeting. A sharp drop in inflation needs to wait at least next year. The current pressure on the supply side has eased, but demand is still resilient. There is limited room for future decline in superimposed energy prices, and the rate of inflation falling during the year may be slow. Considering the downward pressure on the U.S. economy, if there is no new shock on the supply side, the Federal Reserve may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year. From the perspective of taylor rule and real interest rate, the rate hike end point level of around 5% is the desirable tightening level.</p><p><b>Conclusion:</b>Although U.S. GDP rebounded more than expected in the third quarter, U.S. real estate has shown obvious signs of recession. The future resilience of U.S. consumption and the narrowing trend of trade deficit may not be sustainable. Corporate investment is expected to continue to slow down. However, industrial production and services The industry is still booming, the labor market is still strong, and the breadth of the U.S. economic downturn is not expected to reach a substantial recession, and it is expected to enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The pace of the Fed's rate hike is still highly dependent on data, and the slowdown in rate hike is approaching. When the rate hike slows down, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up important data and the Fed's statement. There is a possibility that the rate hike will slow down in December this year. Considering the downward pressure on the US economy, the Fed may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike may be about 5%.</p><p>The decline in private inventories slowed down, corporate investment and government spending increased, the trade deficit narrowed, and the resilience of superimposed service consumption pushed the U.S. GDP to achieve slightly higher-than-expected positive growth in the third quarter. However, at present, some industries in the US economy have shown signs of recession, especially the real estate market. The U.S. economy is already on the verge of recession. In the future, we need to pay attention to the current resilient industry, service industry, and labor market trends. We maintain our previous view that the U.S. economy may experience a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The core PCE inflation stickiness in the third quarter is still high, and it still maintains the judgment that the Fed's rate hike will be around 5% until the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike will be around 5%.</p><p><b>Some industries in the United States have shown signs of recession, and the time of recession is approaching</b></p><p><b>The initial annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the third quarter turned positive, recording 2.6%, slightly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial value of the core PCE price index in the third quarter was 4.5%, consistent with expectations and slightly lower than the 4.7% in the second quarter.</b>The final quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of real GDP in the United States in the second quarter was-0.6%, and the initial quarter-on-quarter annualized rate in the third quarter was 2.6%, slightly exceeding market expectations. The quarter-on-quarter increase in real GDP in the United States in the third quarter was mainly due to the reduction in the scale of private inventory decline, the rebound in corporate investment, the narrowing of trade deficit (import demand declined and export growth increased slightly), the increase in government expenditure and the resilience of service consumption. In the third quarter, the core PCE only fell slightly from the previous quarter, reflecting that the current core inflation is still highly sticky.</p><p><b>Although some industries in the United States currently have a high risk of recession, the breadth of the risk of economic deterioration is still limited. The U.S. economy is approaching the point of recession, or may enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year.</b>Under the environment of the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish rate hike, the interest rate-sensitive U.S. real estate market has begun to deteriorate. The resilience of U.S. consumption is expected to be limited and there have been signs of weakness. The narrowing of the trade deficit in the third quarter is difficult to sustain, especially The strength of the U.S. dollar will continue to lead to a decline in the competitiveness of U.S. goods, and the slowdown of corporate investment will continue. Therefore, the stronger performance of the U.S. economy in the third quarter may be short-lived. Judging from other economic indicators, the current industrial and service industries are still resilient, and the labor market is still strong. Therefore, although the U.S. economy has experienced a sharp slowdown at present, the breadth of the economic slowdown may not yet reach a substantial recession, but the time of the recession may be approaching, and the United States may enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year.</p><p><b>The resilience of U.S. economic growth has divided, and real estate may have fallen into recession</b></p><p><b>The interest rate-sensitive real estate market has shown signs of recession, or has entered a recession.</b>The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike has pushed up mortgage interest rates sharply. The current 15-year and 30-year mortgage interest rates are already at the level of 6%-7% in 2006, which is significantly higher than the long period after the financial crisis and before the impact of the epidemic. 3%-4% level. As a result, more home buyers stopped to wait and see, and housing sales data fell sharply. In August, the S&P/Case-Shiller National House Price Index fell sharply month-on-month. The decline was faster than that during the 2008 financial crisis, so the real estate development business slowed down the construction speed. At present, the house price has continued to grow significantly negatively from the previous month, the housing sales data has fallen into the dangerous range (450,000-600,000 units), and the scale of housing construction is about to fall into the warning range (1.2-1.4 million units). Many real estate indicators show that the risk of an imminent recession in the US economy is high. Considering seasonal factors and the fact that the Federal Reserve will not stop the pace of rate hike in the short term, the real estate market is expected to continue to decline, further dragging down U.S. GDP.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/399ff9db5be9ffcc7242cb27bfc3aede\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d779cb3c571579a83e6cefdaa4ac2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7a57283fbdc0da04fcfdcc19aa642b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Against the background of continued high inflation, future savings and income will have weak support for consumption, and consumption is expected to continue to be weak.</b>The growth rate of real income and the growth rate of real deposits are one of the core determinants of consumer expenditure, and high inflation will erode the income level and savings level of residents. Based on the calculation of excess savings, the excess savings obtained by residents after the impact of the epidemic may be exhausted in the fourth quarter, and the actual income growth rate has exceeded the lower limit of the warning range. In the future, excess savings and income will have limited support for consumption. In the third quarter, the actual personal consumption expenditure declined at an annualized rate from the previous quarter, and continued to be in the range of 1%-3%, which is a sign of (impending) economic recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6397ca1f85a0b524fcbe3a2a91f8a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08573c68dab5a3f275797701b5d55b5b\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94a3bbffb9ae865b04489cd28957cd9d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce846d462c59ac0d188315f5483373c2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>However, the relevant indicators of industry and service industries have not yet fallen into the warning range, indicating that their development is still resilient.</b>The overall industrial output index is highly synchronized with the economy. Often, the year-on-year growth rate of the overall industrial output index plummets to zero in one to two quarters (it needs to continue to decline in the future), which is a sign of the beginning of the economic recession. However, at present, the growth rate of total industrial output is stable near the upper limit of the warning range (0% to 2.5%), and there is no sign of sudden drop. Similarly, the non-manufacturing PMI is still higher than 55. Judging from these two indicators, the current risk of economic recession is low. If the growth rate of total industrial output plummets below 0 and the non-manufacturing PMI falls below 50, it may reflect that the US economy is about to enter or has entered a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dddaa270460c94f451ab30a2ff4d275\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/709c24f1da210ad19cf301f15568ca72\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Tightening loan conditions and rising interest rates will put downward pressure on demand and profits. The growth rate of non-residential investment in the United States is expected to grow slowly, and there is a possibility of negative growth in the fourth quarter.</b>Non-residential investment improved marginally in the third quarter, with the quarter-on-quarter growth rate rebounding from 0.1% in the second quarter to 3.7%, contributing 0.49% to GDP in the third quarter. Although or due to the low base in the last quarter, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of corporate investment in the third quarter improved, but the overall trend is still downward. High inflation and rapidly rising interest rates have led to a rapid decline in U.S. demand. In September, the manufacturing PMI quickly dropped to 50.9, and new PMI orders have dropped to 47.1. Lending standards have begun to tighten in the second quarter of 2022. The current corporate leverage ratio is at a historical high level. The negative impact of the Fed's continued hawkish rate hike on corporate finance is expected to gradually emerge. At present, the downside risk of the economy is relatively high, and the expectations of enterprises for future operating performance are pessimistic. The downward trend of enterprise investment will continue, and there is a risk of rapid deterioration. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of enterprise investment may turn negative in the fourth quarter of this year or the first half of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad96ecee10a4be2095ce1382663d4322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>U.S. job market remains resilient</b></p><p><b>First of all, the unemployment rate rising by 0.5% or more from the previous low is a good synchronous indicator of economic recession, and this indicator shows that the current U.S. labor market is still strong, and it is hard to say that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.</b>Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm proposed an indicator that indicates the beginning of an economic recession: the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (Sahm, 2019) [1], which is constructed as the three-month average unemployment rate and the difference between the previous 12-month low. Sam's recession index greater than 0.5% indicates that the economy is in recession. This index accurately indicates every economic recession after 1970, and can be judged before NBER announces the beginning of the economic recession (NBER announces that there is a lag in the recession). Whether the economy is in recession. Therefore, based on this indicator, it is hard to say that the current US economy has entered a recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ed072d0bca57c187bb23fe4aa588077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>[1] Sahm C. Direct stimulus payments to individuals [J]. Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy, 2019: 67-92.</p><p><b>At the same time, although the number of new non-farm payrolls has weakened, it has not yet triggered a signal of economic recession.</b>The decline in the number of new non-farm payrolls to the range of 100,000 to 200,000 is a sign that the risk of economic recession is high, while the number of new non-farm payrolls has exceeded 100,000 downward (when there is a continued downward trend rather than a volatile trend) is a more accurate synchronous indicator of economic recession. Since 1960, this signal has only been misjudged in 1967. The accuracy of the indicator is high and the synchronization is strong. When the indicator exceeds 100,000 people, it is usually slightly ahead of the economic recession, with an average of one month ahead of the economic recession. The number of new non-agricultural employment in September (three-month average) was 371,700, which is still far from 100,000. The possibility of a short-term economic recession is small, but economic deterioration will lead to a rapid weakening of the job market. In the future, there is a possibility of rapid deterioration in non-agricultural data and signs of economic recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55f438fb8ea5777e917ada2da0d94b5d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The possibility of Fed rate hike slowing in December exists</b></p><p><b>As for the pace of rate hike during the year, there is the possibility that the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate hike, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the Fed's stance on the future rate hike path at the November interest rate meeting.</b>Last Friday, the Wall Street Journal published an article alluding to the time when the Federal Reserve is considering slowing down its rate hike. Some Federal Reserve officials recently said that the Federal Reserve should start planning to reduce its rate hike and expressed concern about too aggressive rate hike. Market concerns about the economy have risen, rate hike expectations have been lowered, and the US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields have declined. Whether the Federal Reserve will slow down its rate hike to 50bps in December in the future requires close attention to the upcoming economic data such as U.S. GDP, subsequent U.S. inflation data, and the Fed's statement at the November interest rate meeting. If U.S. economic data deteriorates rapidly and U.S. inflation remains sticky, there is a possibility that the Fed will slow down its rate hike in December but raise its forecast for the Fed's rate hike endpoint (4.6% in September).</p><p><b>But in the long run, it will take at least next year for inflation to fall sharply.</b>The current pressure on the supply side has eased. The New York Fed's supply chain pressure index has declined for several consecutive months, the freight index has dropped sharply, and the waiting time at U.S. ports has become normal. However, demand is still resilient, and wage growth is expected to remain high in the short term, resulting in high inflation stickiness of core commodities and core services, and limited room for future decline in superimposed energy prices, and the rate of inflation falling during the year may be slow. If geopolitical conflicts do not intensify further, we expect U.S. inflation to be at 6.8%-8.0% by the end of this year. It is expected that in the first half of next year, driven by the lag impact of monetary tightening and the superimposed base effect, U.S. inflation may fall sharply, or fall back to around 6% in the first quarter of next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7529fed562506cc18070938dd20ef6a9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be376af08e9128c7f2dc0e631858b980\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve may stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of rate hike may be around 5%.</b>At the end of this year and the first quarter of next year, the U.S. economy and labor market will face higher risks of deterioration. There may be some progress in controlling inflation in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, if there is no new shock on the supply side, the Fed is more likely to stop rate hike in the first quarter of next year. From the perspective of the Taylor rule and real interest rate, although there is a possibility that the Fed's rate hike guidance will be raised again during the year, it is expected that the rate hike end point level will be around 5%, which is a desirable tightening level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9919c4be6d174c5ffcb1ca9db5581f20\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>conclusion</b></p><p>Although U.S. GDP rebounded more than expected in the third quarter, U.S. real estate has shown obvious signs of recession. The future resilience of U.S. consumption and the narrowing trend of trade deficit may be difficult to sustain, and corporate investment is expected to continue to slow down. However, at present, industrial production and service The industry is still booming, the labor market is still strong, and the breadth of the U.S. economic downturn is not expected to reach a substantial recession, and it is expected to enter a substantial recession in the first half of next year. The pace of the Fed's rate hike is still highly dependent on data, and the slowdown in rate hike is approaching. When the rate hike slows down, we need to pay close attention to the follow-up important data and the Fed's statement. There is a possibility that the Fed's rate hike will slow down in December this year. Considering the downward pressure on the U.S. economy, the Fed may stop the rate hike in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of the rate hike may be about 5%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3Vdg0FuEmM0T4uVVcoyMw\">明晰笔谈</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e44b70b343e617916e4a645ff4d3c6c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r3Vdg0FuEmM0T4uVVcoyMw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190853659","content_text":"核心观点私人库存下降速度放缓，企业投资与政府支出增加，贸易逆差缩小，叠加服务消费保持韧性推动了三季度美国GDP实现略超预期的正增长。但当前美国经济部分产业已经出现衰退信号，尤其是房地产市场。美国经济已处于衰退边缘，未来需关注当前仍具有韧性的工业、服务业、劳动力市场的走势，我们维持此前美国经济或于明年上半年实质性衰退的观点。三季度核心PCE通胀粘性仍较高，仍然维持美联储加息至明年一季度，加息终点为5%左右的判断。美国三季度GDP虽然超预期，但是可持续性存疑，部分行业已出现衰退迹象。美国三季度实际GDP环比折年率转正，初值录得2.6%；三季度核心PCE物价指数初值为4.5%，与预期一致，略低于二季度的4.7%，反映出当前核心通胀仍具有高粘性。在美联储持续鹰派加息的环境下，作为利率敏感的美国房地产市场已经开始恶化，美国消费的韧性持续性料将有限，已经出现疲软迹象，三季度出现的贸易逆差缩小的情形较难持续，尤其是美元强势会继续导致美国商品竞争力下降，企业投资放缓趋势将持续，因此美国三季度经济较强劲的亮眼表现或为昙花一现。美国经济增长的韧性有所分化，房地产或已陷入衰退，消费的韧性持续性料将有限，非住宅投资增速存在四季度负增长的可能性。利率敏感的房地产已经出现衰退迹象，美联储激进加息推升抵押贷款利率大幅上行，房地产多项指标均显示出美国经济即将衰退的风险较高。通胀持续高位运行的背景下，未来储蓄以及收入对于消费的支撑较弱，第三季度实际个人消费支出环比折年率下滑，消费预计将继续疲软。贷款条件收紧、利率上行会对需求以及利润造成下行压力，美国非住宅投资增速预计将缓慢增长，存在四季度负增长的可能性。而工业、服务业相关指标还未落入警示区间，叠加就业市场指标表现良好，显示当前经济衰退风险偏低。往往是工业总体产出指数同比增速1至2个季度骤降至零（需后续继续下降）是经济衰退的开始的标志。但目前工业总产出增速稳定在警示区间（0%至2.5%）的上限附近，还未出现骤降迹象；相似的，非制造业PMI仍高于55，因此当前经济衰退风险偏低。同时，美国就业市场仍具有韧性，萨姆规则衰退指标和新增非农就业人数指标显示当前美国经济难言已经步入衰退。通胀大幅回落至少需等待明年，美联储或在明年一季度停止加息。我们认为年内存在美联储放缓加息的可能性，需高度关注11月议息会议美联储对于未来加息路径的表态。通胀大幅回落至少需等待明年，当前供给端压力有所缓解，但需求仍具有韧性，叠加能源价格未来下跌空间有限，年内通胀回落速度或偏慢。考虑到美国经济下行压力，若供应端没有新的冲击，美联储或于明年一季度停止加息。从泰勒规则以及实际利率角度来看，加息终点水平位于5%左右是合意的紧缩水平。结论：虽然三季度美国GDP超预期反弹，但目前美国房地产已经出现明显的衰退迹象，美国消费未来的韧性以及贸易逆差缩窄趋势或难持续，企业投资预计也将继续放缓，但目前工业生产、服务行业仍景气，劳动力市场仍偏强，美国经济下行的广度预计还未达到实质性衰退，预计或于明年上半年步入实质性衰退。美联储加息节奏仍然是高度依赖数据，同时加息放缓时点已经临近。加息放缓时点需高度关注后续重要数据以及美联储表态，存在加息于今年12月放缓的可能性，考虑到美国经济下行压力，美联储或于明年一季度停止加息，加息终点或为5%左右。私人库存下降速度放缓，企业投资与政府支出增加，贸易逆差缩小，叠加服务消费保持韧性推动了三季度美国GDP实现略超预期的正增长。但当前美国经济部分产业已经出现衰退信号，尤其是房地产市场。美国经济已处于衰退边缘，未来需关注当前仍具有韧性的工业、服务业、劳动力市场的走势，我们维持此前美国经济或于明年上半年实质性衰退的观点。三季度核心PCE通胀粘性仍较高，仍然维持美联储加息至明年一季度，加息终点为5%左右的判断。美国部分行业已出现衰退迹象，衰退时点临近美国三季度实际GDP环比折年率初值转正，录得2.6%，略超预期的2.4%，三季度核心PCE物价指数初值为4.5%，与预期一致，略低于二季度4.7%。美国二季度实际GDP环比折年率终值为-0.6%，三季度环比折年率初值为2.6%，略超市场预期。第三季度美国实际GDP环比上升主要由于私人库存下降规模减少、企业投资有所反弹、贸易逆差缩窄（进口需求下滑并且出口增速小幅上升）、政府支出转为增加以及服务消费仍具有韧性。三季度核心PCE环比仅小幅下降，反映出当前核心通胀仍具有高粘性。虽然美国部分行业当前已具有较高的衰退风险，但经济恶化风险的广度仍有限，美国经济已临近衰退时点，或在明年上半年步入实质性衰退。在美联储持续鹰派加息的环境下，作为利率敏感的美国房地产市场已经开始恶化，美国消费的韧性持续性料将有限，已经出现疲软迹象，三季度出现的贸易逆差缩小的情形较难持续，尤其是美元强势会继续导致美国商品竞争力下降，企业投资放缓趋势将持续，因此美国三季度经济较强劲的亮眼表现或为昙花一现。从其他经济指标来看，当前工业、服务业仍存在韧性，劳动力市场仍偏强劲。因此虽然目前美国经济已经出现大幅放缓，但是经济放缓的广度或还未达到实质性衰退的境地，但衰退时点或已临近，美国或在明年上半年步入实质性衰退。美国经济增长的韧性有所分化，房地产或已陷入衰退利率敏感的房地产市场已经出现衰退迹象，或已步入衰退。美联储激进加息推升抵押贷款利率大幅上行，当前15年期以及30年期抵押贷款利率已位于2006年的6%-7%的水平，已大幅高于金融危机后、疫情冲击前较长一段3%-4%的水平。因而较多购房者停下脚步观望，住房销售数据大幅下滑，8月标普／Case-Shiller全美房价指数环比大幅下滑，下降幅度快与08年金融危机时期，房地产开发商业因此减缓开工速度。当前房价环比已连续大幅负增长，住房销售数据已跌入危险区间（45-60万套），住房开工规模即将跌入警示区间（120万套-140万套），房地产多项指标均显示出美国经济即将衰退的风险较高。考虑季节性因素以及美联储短期不会停止加息步伐，因此房地产市场预计将继续下行，进一步拖累美国GDP。通胀持续高位运行的背景下，未来储蓄以及收入对于消费的支撑较弱，消费预计将继续疲软。实际收入增速以及实际存款增速是消费支出的核心决定因素之一，而高通胀会侵蚀居民收入水平以及储蓄水平。基于对超额储蓄的测算，疫情冲击后居民获得的超额储蓄或于四季度消耗殆尽，实际收入增速已突破警戒范围的下限，未来超额储蓄以及收入对于消费的支撑将较有限。第三季度实际个人消费支出环比折年率下滑，继续处于1%-3%的区间为经济（即将）衰退的迹象。而工业、服务业相关指标还未落入警示区间，显示其发展仍具有韧性。工业总体产出指数与经济的同步性较强，往往是工业总体产出指数同比增速1至2个季度骤降至零（需后续继续下降）是经济衰退的开始的标志。但目前工业总产出增速稳定在警示区间（0%至2.5%）的上限附近，还未出现骤降迹象，相似的，非制造业PMI仍高于55。从这两个指标判断，当前经济衰退风险偏低，若工业总产出增速骤降至0以下、非制造业PMI降至50以下或反映出美国经济即将或已经步入衰退。贷款条件收紧、利率上行会对需求以及利润造成下行压力，美国非住宅投资增速预计将缓慢增长，存在四季度负增长的可能性。非住宅投资三季度边际好转，环比增速由二季度0.1%反弹至3.7%，对三季度GDP的贡献率为0.49%，虽然或由于上季度低基数，三季度企业投资环比增速有所好转，但整体仍然为趋势性下行。高通胀以及快速提升的利率水平导致美国需求快速回落，9月制造业PMI快速回落至50.9，PMI新订单已下降至47.1，2022年第二季度贷款标准已开始收紧，目前企业杠杆率处于历史高位，美联储继续鹰派加息对于企业财务的负面影响预计将逐步显现。叠加目前经济下行风险较大，企业对于未来经营业绩的预期偏悲观，企业投资的下行趋势将持续，存在快速恶化的风险，企业投资环比增速或于今年四季度或明年上半年转为负增长。美国就业市场仍具有韧性首先，失业率较此前低点上升0.5%及以上是较好的经济衰退的同步指标，而该指标显示出当前美国劳动力市场仍偏强劲，美国经济难言已经步入衰退。美联储经济学家Claudia Sahm提出了一个预示经济衰退开始时点的指标：萨姆规则衰退指标（Sahm Rule Recession Indicator）（Sahm，2019）【1】 ，该指标构造方式为3个月平均失业率与前12个月的低点的差值。萨姆衰退指标大于0.5%则预示经济正处于衰退之中，该指标准确的指示了1970年后的每一次经济衰退，可以在NBER宣布经济衰退开始时点前（NBER宣布衰退存在滞后性）判断出经济是否陷入了衰退。因此，基于该指标当前美国经济难言已经步入衰退。【1】Sahm C. Direct stimulus payments to individuals[J]. Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy, 2019: 67-92.同时新增非农就业人数虽然趋弱但还未触发经济衰退的信号。新增非农就业人数下降至10至20万人的区间是一种经济衰退风险较大的迹象，而新增非农就业人数向下突破10万人（出现继续下行趋势而非震荡态势的时点）是经济衰退较为准确的同步指标。1960年以来，该信号仅在1967年误判了，指标的准确性较高并且同步性较强，该指标突破10万人时点通常略领先经济衰退，平均领先经济衰退时点1个月。9月新增非农就业人数（3个月平均）为37.17万人，离10万人还有一定的距离，短期经济衰退的可能性较小，但经济恶化会导致就业市场迅速转弱，未来非农数据存在快速恶化，出现经济衰退迹象的可能性。美联储加息存在于12月放缓的可能性对于年内加息节奏而言，存在美联储放缓加息的可能性，需高度关注11月议息会议美联储对于未来加息路径的表态。上周五《华尔街日报》发布文章暗指美联储在考虑放缓加息时点，一些美联储官员近期表示美联储应该开始计划减少加息幅度并表达了对于过于激进加息的担忧。市场对于经济的担忧上升，加息预期有所下调，美元指数以及美债利率下行。未来美联储是否会在12月放缓加息至50bps，需高度关注即将披露的美国GDP等经济数据、后续美国通胀数据以及美联储在11月议息会议的表态。若美国经济数据恶化较快且美国通胀粘性仍较高，存在美联储于12月放缓加息但上调美联储加息终点预测（9月为4.6%）的可能性。但是长期来看，通胀大幅回落至少需等待明年。当前供给端压力有所缓解，纽约联储供应链压力指数连续多个月下降，货运指数大幅下降，美国港口等待时间趋于常态。但需求仍具有韧性，薪资增长短期预计仍将高位运行，导致核心商品与核心服务通胀粘性较高，叠加能源价格未来下跌空间有限，年内通胀回落速度或偏慢。若地缘政治冲突不再进一步加剧，今年年底我们预计美国通胀水平或在6.8%-8.0%水平。预计明年上半年在货币紧缩滞后性影响的推动下，叠加基数效应，美国通胀可能会出现偏大幅回落，或在明年一季度回落至6%左右。美联储或于明年一季度停止加息，加息终点或为5%左右。今年年底以及明年一季度美国经济以及劳动力市场都将面临较高的恶化风险，控制通胀或于明年一季度出现一定进展，因此若供应端没有新冲击，美联储明年一季度停止加息概率较大。从泰勒规则以及实际利率角度来看，虽然年内存在美联储加息指引再度上调的可能性，但是预计加息终点水平位于5%左右是合意的紧缩水平。结论虽然三季度美国GDP超预期反弹，但目前美国房地产已经出现明显的衰退迹象，美国消费未来的韧性以及贸易逆差缩窄趋势或难持续，企业投资预计也将继续放缓，但目前工业生产、服务行业仍景气，劳动力市场仍偏强，美国经济下行的广度预计还未达到实质性衰退，预计或于明年上半年步入实质性衰退。美联储加息节奏仍然是高度依赖数据，同时加息放缓时点已经临近。加息放缓时点需高度关注后续重要数据以及美联储表态，存在美联储加息于今年12月放缓的可能性，考虑到美国经济下行压力，美联储或于明年一季度停止加息，加息终点或为5%左右。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986210782,"gmtCreate":1666961181846,"gmtModify":1676537840055,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986210782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981872002,"gmtCreate":1666485451706,"gmtModify":1676537759954,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981872002","repostId":"1108967360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108967360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666406360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108967360?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-22 10:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Apple's chief product designer will leave and the position of design director will be vacant for the first time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108967360","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"她的继任者还未被提名。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Liu Qian</p><p>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company issued a statement confirming that chief product designer Evans Hankey plans to leave next year, and her successor has not yet been nominated. This week, Apple announced Hankey's departure internally. Hankey told colleagues that she would stay at Apple for the next six months. Currently Hankey manages dozens of industrial designers.</p><p>An Apple spokesman said: \"Apple's design team brings together experts from all over the world and in different fields, who have designed impeccable Apple products. Our senior design team has strong and experienced leaders. Evans plans to stay in office during our transition, and we would like to thank her for her leadership and contribution.\"</p><p><b>Hankey's departure marks the first time that the position of \"Apple Design Director\" has been vacant since Jobs regained control of Apple in the late 1990s and appointed famed designer Jony Ive to the role.</b>Hankey succeeded Ive as Apple's design director in 2019 and reports to Jeff Williams, Apple's head of operations.</p><p><b>It is speculated that Richard Howarth is one of the popular candidates to succeed Hankey.</b>Howarth, a key designer on Ive and Hankey's teams, reported to Ivy as head of industrial design briefly from 2015 to 2017.</p><p>During Hankey's tenure as \"design director,\" Apple launched the iPhone 12 through iPhone 14 models and the M1 MacBook. Apple has been developing key innovative devices in recent years, including MR headsets to be launched next year, AR headsets and electric vehicles that may be produced many years later. These products will have extremely high requirements for design. Ive's departure had a great impact on Apple, and then he founded his own design company LoveFrom, and Apple became its top customer. But that partnership ended this year. It's unclear whether Hankey will move to another company or set up his own business.</p><p>According to reports, after Ive's departure, Alan Dye, who led Apple's design team with Hankey, will stay at Apple and continue to report to Williams. Moreover, Gary Butcher, who was a top designer in the Dye division and is now Airbnb's vice president of design, will return to Apple.</p><p>Apple's design team can override manufacturing and financial costs, thanks to the precedent set by Jobs. Ive, the former design director of Apple, once said to a supplier who was \"embarrassed\", \"Imagine that I have a big bucket of money here, and you can take as much as you want. The only premise is that you have to make what I want\". This has also become one of the tenets of success learning represented by Apple in the future, and it is difficult to make \"design\" come true.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple's chief product designer will leave and the position of design director will be vacant for the first time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple's chief product designer will leave and the position of design director will be vacant for the first time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-22 10:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Liu Qian</p><p>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company issued a statement confirming that chief product designer Evans Hankey plans to leave next year, and her successor has not yet been nominated. This week, Apple announced Hankey's departure internally. Hankey told colleagues that she would stay at Apple for the next six months. Currently Hankey manages dozens of industrial designers.</p><p>An Apple spokesman said: \"Apple's design team brings together experts from all over the world and in different fields, who have designed impeccable Apple products. Our senior design team has strong and experienced leaders. Evans plans to stay in office during our transition, and we would like to thank her for her leadership and contribution.\"</p><p><b>Hankey's departure marks the first time that the position of \"Apple Design Director\" has been vacant since Jobs regained control of Apple in the late 1990s and appointed famed designer Jony Ive to the role.</b>Hankey succeeded Ive as Apple's design director in 2019 and reports to Jeff Williams, Apple's head of operations.</p><p><b>It is speculated that Richard Howarth is one of the popular candidates to succeed Hankey.</b>Howarth, a key designer on Ive and Hankey's teams, reported to Ivy as head of industrial design briefly from 2015 to 2017.</p><p>During Hankey's tenure as \"design director,\" Apple launched the iPhone 12 through iPhone 14 models and the M1 MacBook. Apple has been developing key innovative devices in recent years, including MR headsets to be launched next year, AR headsets and electric vehicles that may be produced many years later. These products will have extremely high requirements for design. Ive's departure had a great impact on Apple, and then he founded his own design company LoveFrom, and Apple became its top customer. But that partnership ended this year. It's unclear whether Hankey will move to another company or set up his own business.</p><p>According to reports, after Ive's departure, Alan Dye, who led Apple's design team with Hankey, will stay at Apple and continue to report to Williams. Moreover, Gary Butcher, who was a top designer in the Dye division and is now Airbnb's vice president of design, will return to Apple.</p><p>Apple's design team can override manufacturing and financial costs, thanks to the precedent set by Jobs. Ive, the former design director of Apple, once said to a supplier who was \"embarrassed\", \"Imagine that I have a big bucket of money here, and you can take as much as you want. The only premise is that you have to make what I want\". This has also become one of the tenets of success learning represented by Apple in the future, and it is difficult to make \"design\" come true.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672975\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba0002b4abb7167a14c49dc51861a57","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672975","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1108967360","content_text":"作者：刘茜周五，苹果公司发表声明，确认首席产品设计师Evans Hankey计划明年离职，她的继任者还未被提名。本周，苹果内部宣布了Hankey的离职消息，Hankey告诉同事，未来六个月她将继续留在苹果。目前Hankey管理着几十个工业设计师。苹果公司发言人称：“苹果公司的设计团队汇集了来自世界各地和不同领域的专家，他们设计出了无懈可击的苹果产品。我们的高级设计团队拥有强大的经验丰富的领导者。Evans计划在我们完成过渡期间继续留任，我们要感谢她的领导和所做出的贡献。”Hankey的离职标志着，自乔布斯在90年代末重新掌控苹果公司并任命著名设计师Jony Ive担任该职务以来，“苹果设计总监”这一职位首次出现空缺。Hankey于2019年接替Ive成为苹果设计总监，并向苹果的运营主管Jeff Williams汇报。外界推测，Richard Howarth是接替Hankey的热门候选人之一。Howarth是Ive和Hankey团队的关键设计师，他曾在2015年至2017年期间短暂担任工业设计主管，向Ivy汇报。在Hankey担任“设计总监”期间，苹果推出了iPhone 12至iPhone 14机型和M1 MacBook。苹果近年来一直在研发关键的创新型设备，包括将于明年推出的MR头显、AR头显以及可能在多年后生产的电动汽车。这些产品都会对于外观设计有着极高的要求。当年Ive的离职给苹果带来了很大的影响，随后他创办了自己的设计公司LoveFrom，苹果成为其顶级客户。但这种合作关系在今年结束。目前还不清楚Hankey是否会去另一家公司还是自立门户。据报道，在Ive离职后，与Hankey一起领导苹果设计团队的Alan Dye则会留在苹果工作，并继续向Williams报告。而且，曾在Dye部门担任顶级设计师、现任Airbnb设计副总裁的Gary Butcher将重返苹果。苹果设计团队可以凌驾于生产制造和财务成本之上，这还是得益于乔布斯开创的先例。苹果前任设计总监Ive曾经对一个“表示为难”的供应商说，“想象一下，我这里有一大桶的钱，你想拿多少就可以拿多少，唯一的前提就是，你必须把我要的东西给做出来”。这也在日后成为了苹果所代表的成功学的信条之一，排开万难以求“设计”成真。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981876720,"gmtCreate":1666485434560,"gmtModify":1676537759953,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981876720","repostId":"1137093031","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137093031","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666433451,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137093031?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-22 18:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Vaccine stocks have collectively soared, and the wave of overseas COVID-19 vaccine price increases is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137093031","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"辉瑞预计其疫苗价格将涨至每剂110美元至130美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>As vaccines will be transferred from the U.S. federal government-managed system to the commercial market, overseas COVID-19 vaccine may usher in a wave of price increases.</p><p>On October 20, Pfizer revealed that it would increase the commercial selling price of its COVID-19 vaccine, and it is expected that the price of its vaccine will rise to US $110 to US $130 per dose.</p><p>Based on the median value of this commercial selling price of US $120, this is four times the purchase price of the US government (about US $30 per dose of vaccine), and the market expects its revenue to increase significantly. On Friday, Pfizer shares closed with a nearly 5% gain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fd780d0a75086fc66d7729a9215f1a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Starting in 2023, COVID-19 vaccine will transition from U.S. government procurement to a typical commercial sales model.</b>U.S. administration officials say companies such as Pfizer will eventually sell COVID-19 vaccine in commercial markets just like they sell other vaccines, drugs and tests.</p><p>Pfizer said COVID-19 vaccine could begin commercial rollout as early as early next year, but that will also depend on factors such as when the contract with the U.S. government expires and when existing vaccine supplies in the United States run out.</p><p>Earlier media reports said that due to the slowdown in the pace of domestic booster revaccination in the United States and weak demand in COVID-19 vaccine, Wall Street expects a general increase in vaccine prices, which means that vaccine manufacturers need to raise prices to meet Wall Street's expectations for their revenue in 2023 and beyond. expectations.</p><p>According to analysts, if vaccine makers including Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna and others hope to meet this revenue expectation,<b>May have to raise vaccine prices to at least three times current levels</b>。</p><p>At that time, there may be a wave of price increases in COVID-19 vaccine, and the market's sentiment for vaccine stocks is high. Yesterday's intraday US stock market,<b>In addition to Pfizer, the stock prices of Novavax, BioNTech, Moderna and other companies have risen sharply: as of the close of U.S. stocks, Moderna rose 8.4%, BioNTech rose more than 11%, and Novavax rose more than 12.5%.</b></p><p>Wall Street's performance expectations for vaccine manufacturers have also further improved. Yesterday, investment bank SVB Leerink raised its rating on Moderna from \"weaker than the market\" to \"flat with the market\" and raised its target price from $74 to $101. Analysts believe that if Moderna's vaccine pricing becomes more \"rational\" in 2023, it will greatly improve the company's chances of achieving its 2023 revenue guidance.</p><p>Angela Lukin, president of Pfizer U.S., said in an interview with the media that COVID-19 vaccine will not rely entirely on commercial revenue until the first quarter of 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>Lukin also expects that after starting commercial sales, most people will not have to pay out of pocket for the vaccine, as many health insurance plans cover the full cost of the annual flu shot.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaccine stocks have collectively soared, and the wave of overseas COVID-19 vaccine price increases is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaccine stocks have collectively soared, and the wave of overseas COVID-19 vaccine price increases is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-22 18:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>As vaccines will be transferred from the U.S. federal government-managed system to the commercial market, overseas COVID-19 vaccine may usher in a wave of price increases.</p><p>On October 20, Pfizer revealed that it would increase the commercial selling price of its COVID-19 vaccine, and it is expected that the price of its vaccine will rise to US $110 to US $130 per dose.</p><p>Based on the median value of this commercial selling price of US $120, this is four times the purchase price of the US government (about US $30 per dose of vaccine), and the market expects its revenue to increase significantly. On Friday, Pfizer shares closed with a nearly 5% gain.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fd780d0a75086fc66d7729a9215f1a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Starting in 2023, COVID-19 vaccine will transition from U.S. government procurement to a typical commercial sales model.</b>U.S. administration officials say companies such as Pfizer will eventually sell COVID-19 vaccine in commercial markets just like they sell other vaccines, drugs and tests.</p><p>Pfizer said COVID-19 vaccine could begin commercial rollout as early as early next year, but that will also depend on factors such as when the contract with the U.S. government expires and when existing vaccine supplies in the United States run out.</p><p>Earlier media reports said that due to the slowdown in the pace of domestic booster revaccination in the United States and weak demand in COVID-19 vaccine, Wall Street expects a general increase in vaccine prices, which means that vaccine manufacturers need to raise prices to meet Wall Street's expectations for their revenue in 2023 and beyond. expectations.</p><p>According to analysts, if vaccine makers including Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna and others hope to meet this revenue expectation,<b>May have to raise vaccine prices to at least three times current levels</b>。</p><p>At that time, there may be a wave of price increases in COVID-19 vaccine, and the market's sentiment for vaccine stocks is high. Yesterday's intraday US stock market,<b>In addition to Pfizer, the stock prices of Novavax, BioNTech, Moderna and other companies have risen sharply: as of the close of U.S. stocks, Moderna rose 8.4%, BioNTech rose more than 11%, and Novavax rose more than 12.5%.</b></p><p>Wall Street's performance expectations for vaccine manufacturers have also further improved. Yesterday, investment bank SVB Leerink raised its rating on Moderna from \"weaker than the market\" to \"flat with the market\" and raised its target price from $74 to $101. Analysts believe that if Moderna's vaccine pricing becomes more \"rational\" in 2023, it will greatly improve the company's chances of achieving its 2023 revenue guidance.</p><p>Angela Lukin, president of Pfizer U.S., said in an interview with the media that COVID-19 vaccine will not rely entirely on commercial revenue until the first quarter of 2023 at the earliest.</p><p>Lukin also expects that after starting commercial sales, most people will not have to pay out of pocket for the vaccine, as many health insurance plans cover the full cost of the annual flu shot.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672996\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2a0f842b52974184983c9748f803fd","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672996","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1137093031","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳随着疫苗将从美国联邦政府管理的体系转入商业市场，海外新冠疫苗或将迎来一波涨价潮。10月20日，辉瑞公司透露，将提高其新冠疫苗的商业售价，预计其疫苗价格将涨至每剂110美元至130美元。按照这一商业售价的中间值120美元计算，这是美国政府采购价（每剂疫苗约为30美元）的4倍，市场预期其营收将会大幅增长。周五，辉瑞股价以近5%的涨幅收盘。从2023年开始，新冠疫苗将从美国政府采购过渡到典型的商业销售模式。美国政府官员表示，辉瑞等公司最终将像销售其他疫苗、药物和检测试剂一样，在商业市场销售新冠疫苗。辉瑞表示，新冠疫苗最早可能在明年年初就开始进行商业推广，不过这还将取决于与美国政府的合同何时到期，以及美国现有的疫苗供应何时耗尽等因素。此前有媒体报道称，由于美国国内加强针再接种步伐放缓、新冠疫苗需求疲软，华尔街预计疫苗价格会普遍上涨，这意味着疫苗制造商需要提高价格，以满足华尔街对其2023年及以后的收入预期。分析师称，包括辉瑞、BioNTech、Moderna等在内的疫苗制造商如果希望达到这一收入预期，可能不得不将疫苗价格至少提高到目前水平的三倍。届时或将迎来新冠疫苗的涨价潮，市场对疫苗股情绪高涨。昨日美股盘中，除了辉瑞外，Novavax、BioNtech、Moderna 等公司的股价纷纷大涨：截至美股收盘，Moderna 涨8.4%，BioNTech涨超11%，Novavax 涨超12.5%。华尔街对疫苗制造商的业绩预期也有进一步提升。昨日，投资银行 SVB Leerink 将其对 Moderna 的评级由“弱于大盘”上调至“与大盘持平”，并将目标价由74美元上调至101美元。分析认为，如果Moderna的疫苗定价在2023年变得更为“理性”，将大大提高该公司实现2023年营收指引的机会。辉瑞美国总裁 Angela Lukin 在接受媒体采访时表示，最早要到2023年第一季度，新冠疫苗才会完全依赖商业化营收。Lukin 还预计，在开始商业销售后，大多数人将不必自掏腰包购买疫苗，因为许多健康保险计划覆盖每年注射流感疫苗的全部费用。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917539621,"gmtCreate":1665537413063,"gmtModify":1676537622920,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","listText":"[呆住]&nbsp;","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917539621","repostId":"2274257079","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9092443371,"gmtCreate":1644718807330,"gmtModify":1676533955765,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S51 up","listText":"S51 up","text":"S51 up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092443371","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930519453,"gmtCreate":1661987962974,"gmtModify":1676536616320,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFP.SI\">$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$</a>r","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFP.SI\">$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$</a>r","text":"$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2afef4b3dd5b550df722ba41c72a760e","width":"640","height":"1622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930519453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933444836,"gmtCreate":1662340278625,"gmtModify":1676537039552,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Henhao&nbsp;","listText":"Henhao&nbsp;","text":"Henhao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933444836","repostId":"1113274619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113274619","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662332879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113274619?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113274619","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>The Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) in July was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-05 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>The Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) in July was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113274619","content_text":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、美联储副主席布雷纳德、美联储主席鲍威尔等票委讲话值得投资者重点关注。财报方面，值得关注的有蔚来汽车、游戏驿站、哔哩哔哩、老虎证券等。事件方面，苹果将于北京时间周四凌晨1点举行秋季发布会。此外，受节日影响，周一美股休市。港股方面，恒生指数系列成份股变动周一生效。9月5日 周一关键词：美股休市、恒指季检生效、中国8月财新服务业PMI、洪九果品上市周一是美国劳工节，美股休市一日。港股方面，恒生指数系列的成份股变动于当日生效。经济数据方面，中国将公布8月财新服务业PMI。7月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）为55.5，较6月上升1.0个百分点，连续第二个月位于扩张区间，并且创2021年5月以来新高。服务业景气度继续上升，显示服务业恢复速度加快。服务业是就业最大吸纳器。6月份一度跌落至收缩区间的财新服务业就业指数，7月份重回荣枯线以上。此前官方服务业PMI从业人员指数亦出现回升，这些都表明市场需求扩张背景下，就业状况持续改善。新股方面，洪九果品在港股上市。根据灼识咨询，按2021年的销售收入计，公司是中国最大的榴莲分销商，以及火龙果、山竹及龙眼的前五大分销商之一。9月6日 周二关键词：8月ISM非制造业PMI、华为Mate 50系列发布周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布8月Markit服务业PMI终值、8月ISM非制造业PMI。美国7月Markit服务业PMI终值录得47.3，跌破荣枯线，为2020年7月以来新低。标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson对此评价称，美国经济状况在7月份显著恶化，制造业和服务业的商业活动都在下降。排除为应对疫情实行居家政策的月份，整体产出降幅是全球金融危机以来最大的，这表明经济很有可能连续第三个季度萎缩。财报方面，金山云和兰亭集势将公布业绩。事件方面，华为Mate 50系列将于9月6日正式发布。华为常务董事余承东日前表示，在即将发布的Mate50系列上，华为将在通讯技术上再有突破——向上捅破天的技术。据媒体报道，知名TMT行业分析师郭明錤曾爆料，华为所谓向上捅破天的技术，是指Mate 50系列将支持卫星通信，提供紧急短信服务。9月7日 周三关键词：中国8月贸易帐、蔚来/游戏驿站财报、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特/美联储副主席布雷纳德发言周三，经济数据方面，中国将公布8月贸易帐、中国8月以美元计算贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备。海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，前7个月，我国进出口总值23.6万亿元，同比增长10.4%。7月份，我国进出口总值3.81万亿元，同比增长16.6%。其中，出口2.25万亿元，增长23.9%；进口1.56万亿元，增长7.4%；贸易顺差6826.9亿元，扩大90.9%。国家外汇管理局公布的数据显示，截至2022年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为31041亿美元，较6月末上升328亿美元，升幅为1.07%。在汇率折算、资产价格变化等因素综合推动下，7月外汇储备规模上升。此外，美国7月贸易帐及全球供应链压力指数值得关注。纽约联储发布的全球供应问题指数报告称，随着港口拥堵和其他障碍的缓解，7月份全球供应链压力降至2021年1月以来的最低水平，该指数目前比去年12月的创纪录高点下降了50%以上，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。财报方面，蔚来、Gitlab、向上融科将于美股盘前公布业绩；游戏驿站将于盘后发布财报。美联储动态方面，可留意：2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。美联储副主席布雷纳德发表讲话。9月8日 周四关键词：苹果秋季发布会、美联储经济状况褐皮书、鲍威尔讲话、B站财报周四，关注大宗商品的投资者可留意，美国能源信息署(EIA)的月度短期能源展望报告，其中将涉及原油、汽油等能源的供需情况。当日的一大看点是北京时间周四凌晨1点的苹果秋季发布会。外界猜测，苹果将发布新款iPhone。预计苹果将发布四款新的iPhone，包括iPhone 14、iPhone 14 Max、iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max。苹果还可能推出新的Apple Watch和AirPods，苹果也在准备新的Mac电脑和iPad，但这些新产品有时会在10月份的另一场活动中发布。美联储动态方面，可留意：美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。美联储每年发布8次褐皮书，通过地区储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策例会的重要参考资料。美联储将于9月20日-21日召开下一次货币政策会议。美联储副主席布雷纳德就美国经济前景发表讲话。美联储主席鲍威尔参加卡托研究所举办的有关货币政策的会议。财报方面，哔哩哔哩和高途将公布业绩。9月9日 周五关键词：中国8月CPI年率、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯讲话周五，经济数据方面，投资者可重点关注中国8月CPI年率及8月M2货币供应年率。国家统计局发布数据显示，7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月持平转为上涨0.5%；同比上涨2.7%，涨幅虽比上月扩大0.2个百分点，但总体仍运行在合理区间。国家统计局城市司高级统计师董莉娟表示，7月份，受猪肉、鲜菜等食品价格上涨及季节性因素影响，CPI环比由平转涨，同比涨幅略有扩大。美联储动态方面，可留意2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯就经济发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9933444084,"gmtCreate":1662340255049,"gmtModify":1676537039540,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hai&nbsp;","listText":"Hai&nbsp;","text":"Hai","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9933444084","repostId":"1113274619","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113274619","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662332879,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113274619?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-05 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113274619","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>The Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) in July was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Apple and Huawei new product launch conference; Nio, Bilibili and others hit earnings\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-09-05 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (9.5-9.9):</b></p><p>In terms of economic data, China's August Caixin service PMI, U.S. August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, China's August trade balance, China's August foreign exchange reserves, and China's August CPI were released one after another. In terms of central bank dynamics, before the silent period of the Fed meeting, the speeches of Cleveland Fed President Mester, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard, Fed Chairman Powell and other voting committee members deserve investors' attention. In terms of financial reports, Nio Motors, GameStop, Bilibili, Tiger Securities, etc. are worthy of attention. In terms of events, Apple will hold an autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. In addition, due to the holiday, U.S. stocks were closed on Monday. In terms of Hong Kong stocks, changes in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series took effect on Monday.<b>Keywords for Monday, September 5: U.S. stocks closed, Hang Seng Index quarterly inspection takes effect, China's August Caixin services PMI, Hongjiu Fruit listed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97c99961a1698c28ac54a3aebfcf2503\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"190\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Monday is American Labor Day, and U.S. stocks are closed for one day. For Hong Kong stocks, changes in constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index series will take effect on the same day.</b></p><p><b>As for economic data,</b>China will release its Caixin Services PMI for August.</p><p>The Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service Industry PMI) in July was 55.5, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from June. It was in the expansion range for the second consecutive month and hit a new high since May 2021. The prosperity of the service industry continues to rise, indicating that the recovery speed of the service industry is accelerating. The service industry is the biggest absorber of employment. The Caixin service industry employment index, which once fell to the contraction range in June, returned to above the boom-bust line in July. Previously, the official service industry PMI employee index also rebounded, all of which indicate that the employment situation continues to improve against the background of market demand expansion.<b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06689\">Hongjiu Fruit</a>Listed on the Hong Kong stock market. According to CIC, in terms of sales revenue in 2021, the company is the largest durian distributor in China and one of the top five distributors of dragon fruit, mangosteen and longan.</p><p><b>Tuesday, September 6 Keywords: August ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Huawei Mate 50 series release</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2040b28553b3dcbf542d1b601ff1c96d\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"160\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>The United States will announce the August Markit services PMI final value and the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI.</p><p>The final value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in July recorded 47.3, falling below the boom-bust line and the lowest since July 2020. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the U.S. economic situation deteriorated significantly in July, and business activities in both manufacturing and service industries were declining. Excluding the months in which stay-at-home policies were implemented in response to the pandemic, the overall output fell the most since the global financial crisis, suggesting that the economy is likely to shrink for a third consecutive quarter.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITB\">Lanting gathers potential</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The Huawei Mate 50 series will be officially released on September 6th. Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, said recently that in the upcoming Mate50 series, Huawei will make another breakthrough in communication technology-the technology that pierces the sky.</p><p>According to media reports, well-known TMT industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo once broke the news that Huawei's so-called sky-breaking technology means that the Mate 50 series will support satellite communications and provide emergency text message services.<b>Keywords on Wednesday, September 7: China's August trade account, Nio/GameStop financial report, Cleveland Fed President Mester/Fed Vice Chairman Brainard's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78c17780cbbfb5845e16c3b877b98551\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its August trade balance, China's August trade balance in US dollars, and China's August foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 7 showed that in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. In July, my country's total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. Among them, exports were 2.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.9%; Imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; The trade surplus was 682.69 billion yuan, an increase of 90.9%. Data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that as of the end of July 2022, my country's foreign exchange reserves were US $3,104.1 billion, an increase of US $32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June. Driven by factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in July. In addition, the U.S. trade balance and global supply chain pressure index in July deserve attention.</p><p>Global supply chain pressure fell to its lowest level since January 2021 in July as port congestion and other obstacles eased, according to the report released by the New York Fed's Global Supply Issues Index. The index is now down from its record high in December last year. It is more than 50%, but it is still well above pre-pandemic levels.<b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTLB\">Gitlab</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Upward Rongke</a>Results will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>Will release earnings after hours.</p><p><b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>In 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech on U.S. economic and monetary policy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech.</p><p></li></ul><b>Keywords for Thursday, September 8: Apple's autumn conference, Federal Reserve's economic situation Beige Book, Powell's speech, Bilibili's financial report</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c19c77b90e9c03bb32a9088808920a\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday,</b>Investors who are concerned about commodities can pay attention to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will cover the supply and demand of crude oil, gasoline and other energy sources.</p><p><b>One of the highlights of the day was Apple's autumn conference at 1 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday.</b></p><p>There is speculation that Apple will release a new iPhone. Apple is expected to release four new iPhones, including iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro, and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Apple may also launch new Apple Watches and AirPods, and Apple is also preparing new Mac computers and iPads, but these new products are sometimes announced at another event in October.<b>Regarding the dynamics of the Federal Reserve, you can pay attention to:</b></p><p><ul><li>The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions. The Federal Reserve releases Beige Book eight times a year, and conducts a thorough survey of the national economic situation through regional reserve banks. This report is an important reference material for the regular monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on the outlook for the US economy.</p><p></li><li>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends a conference on monetary policy hosted by the Cato Institute.</p><p></li></ul><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Results will be published.</p><p><b>Keywords for Friday, September 9: China's August CPI annual rate, Chicago Fed President Evans's speech</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c146d379f53f0c026ae4d928fcb0711d\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can focus on China's August CPI annual rate and August M2 money supply annual rate.</p><p>According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from the previous month; It rose by 2.7% year-on-year. Although the increase was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, it still operated within a reasonable range overall. Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, due to the rising prices of pork, fresh vegetables and other food products and seasonal factors, the CPI turned from flat to rising month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded slightly.<b>In terms of Federal Reserve dynamics,</b>You can pay attention to the 2023 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Fed President Evans's speech on the economy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d256e82db1d71c864259845ce1d069bf","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113274619","content_text":"本周（9.5-9.9）重磅财经事件：经济数据方面，中国8月财新服务业PMI、美国8月ISM非制造业PMI、中国8月贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备、中国8月CPI等陆续公布。央行动态方面，在美联储会议静默期前，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特、美联储副主席布雷纳德、美联储主席鲍威尔等票委讲话值得投资者重点关注。财报方面，值得关注的有蔚来汽车、游戏驿站、哔哩哔哩、老虎证券等。事件方面，苹果将于北京时间周四凌晨1点举行秋季发布会。此外，受节日影响，周一美股休市。港股方面，恒生指数系列成份股变动周一生效。9月5日 周一关键词：美股休市、恒指季检生效、中国8月财新服务业PMI、洪九果品上市周一是美国劳工节，美股休市一日。港股方面，恒生指数系列的成份股变动于当日生效。经济数据方面，中国将公布8月财新服务业PMI。7月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）为55.5，较6月上升1.0个百分点，连续第二个月位于扩张区间，并且创2021年5月以来新高。服务业景气度继续上升，显示服务业恢复速度加快。服务业是就业最大吸纳器。6月份一度跌落至收缩区间的财新服务业就业指数，7月份重回荣枯线以上。此前官方服务业PMI从业人员指数亦出现回升，这些都表明市场需求扩张背景下，就业状况持续改善。新股方面，洪九果品在港股上市。根据灼识咨询，按2021年的销售收入计，公司是中国最大的榴莲分销商，以及火龙果、山竹及龙眼的前五大分销商之一。9月6日 周二关键词：8月ISM非制造业PMI、华为Mate 50系列发布周二，经济数据方面，美国将公布8月Markit服务业PMI终值、8月ISM非制造业PMI。美国7月Markit服务业PMI终值录得47.3，跌破荣枯线，为2020年7月以来新低。标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson对此评价称，美国经济状况在7月份显著恶化，制造业和服务业的商业活动都在下降。排除为应对疫情实行居家政策的月份，整体产出降幅是全球金融危机以来最大的，这表明经济很有可能连续第三个季度萎缩。财报方面，金山云和兰亭集势将公布业绩。事件方面，华为Mate 50系列将于9月6日正式发布。华为常务董事余承东日前表示，在即将发布的Mate50系列上，华为将在通讯技术上再有突破——向上捅破天的技术。据媒体报道，知名TMT行业分析师郭明錤曾爆料，华为所谓向上捅破天的技术，是指Mate 50系列将支持卫星通信，提供紧急短信服务。9月7日 周三关键词：中国8月贸易帐、蔚来/游戏驿站财报、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特/美联储副主席布雷纳德发言周三，经济数据方面，中国将公布8月贸易帐、中国8月以美元计算贸易帐、中国8月外汇储备。海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，前7个月，我国进出口总值23.6万亿元，同比增长10.4%。7月份，我国进出口总值3.81万亿元，同比增长16.6%。其中，出口2.25万亿元，增长23.9%；进口1.56万亿元，增长7.4%；贸易顺差6826.9亿元，扩大90.9%。国家外汇管理局公布的数据显示，截至2022年7月末，我国外汇储备规模为31041亿美元，较6月末上升328亿美元，升幅为1.07%。在汇率折算、资产价格变化等因素综合推动下，7月外汇储备规模上升。此外，美国7月贸易帐及全球供应链压力指数值得关注。纽约联储发布的全球供应问题指数报告称，随着港口拥堵和其他障碍的缓解，7月份全球供应链压力降至2021年1月以来的最低水平，该指数目前比去年12月的创纪录高点下降了50%以上，但仍远高于疫情前的水平。财报方面，蔚来、Gitlab、向上融科将于美股盘前公布业绩；游戏驿站将于盘后发布财报。美联储动态方面，可留意：2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话。美联储副主席布雷纳德发表讲话。9月8日 周四关键词：苹果秋季发布会、美联储经济状况褐皮书、鲍威尔讲话、B站财报周四，关注大宗商品的投资者可留意，美国能源信息署(EIA)的月度短期能源展望报告，其中将涉及原油、汽油等能源的供需情况。当日的一大看点是北京时间周四凌晨1点的苹果秋季发布会。外界猜测，苹果将发布新款iPhone。预计苹果将发布四款新的iPhone，包括iPhone 14、iPhone 14 Max、iPhone 14 Pro和iPhone 14 Pro Max。苹果还可能推出新的Apple Watch和AirPods，苹果也在准备新的Mac电脑和iPad，但这些新产品有时会在10月份的另一场活动中发布。美联储动态方面，可留意：美联储公布经济状况褐皮书。美联储每年发布8次褐皮书，通过地区储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策例会的重要参考资料。美联储将于9月20日-21日召开下一次货币政策会议。美联储副主席布雷纳德就美国经济前景发表讲话。美联储主席鲍威尔参加卡托研究所举办的有关货币政策的会议。财报方面，哔哩哔哩和高途将公布业绩。9月9日 周五关键词：中国8月CPI年率、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯讲话周五，经济数据方面，投资者可重点关注中国8月CPI年率及8月M2货币供应年率。国家统计局发布数据显示，7月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月持平转为上涨0.5%；同比上涨2.7%，涨幅虽比上月扩大0.2个百分点，但总体仍运行在合理区间。国家统计局城市司高级统计师董莉娟表示，7月份，受猪肉、鲜菜等食品价格上涨及季节性因素影响，CPI环比由平转涨，同比涨幅略有扩大。美联储动态方面，可留意2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯就经济发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9997298915,"gmtCreate":1661814735339,"gmtModify":1676536581848,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFP.SI\">$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$</a>e","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/VFP.SI\">$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$</a>e","text":"$JCG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LTD.(VFP.SI)$e","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/322a15b0c6ba500899353c2bf16b5e74","width":"640","height":"1622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9997298915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987568087,"gmtCreate":1667951267449,"gmtModify":1676537988293,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987568087","repostId":"1131581111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131581111","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667918546,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131581111?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-08 22:42","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Chinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131581111","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月8日，中概股走低，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3%，贝壳跌超7%，好未来、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、蔚来跌超5%.","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 8, Chinese concept stocks fell, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Nio fell more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c80c78aaefe54585a0f41a43b9c461\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese concept stocks fell, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-08 22:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 8, Chinese concept stocks fell, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Shells</a>Fell more than 7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Nio fell more than 5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c80c78aaefe54585a0f41a43b9c461\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159632":"纳斯达克","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4007":"制药",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","ARTL":"Artelo Biosciences, Inc.","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131581111","content_text":"11月8日，中概股走低，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3%，贝壳跌超7%，好未来、哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺、蔚来跌超5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159632":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"ARTL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"NDX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019251396,"gmtCreate":1648602838377,"gmtModify":1676534362525,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019251396","repostId":"1109520986","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967291432,"gmtCreate":1670330762627,"gmtModify":1676538345294,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$胜科海事(S51.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967291432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962556877,"gmtCreate":1669813419499,"gmtModify":1676538248471,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/S51.SI\">$胜科海事(S51.SI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$胜科海事(S51.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962556877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987563556,"gmtCreate":1667951165975,"gmtModify":1676537988241,"author":{"id":"4105324555361630","authorId":"4105324555361630","name":"666六六六666","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f17ce635622014b3976557e79bd7f1e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4105324555361630","idStr":"4105324555361630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987563556","repostId":"1126208578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126208578","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667887866,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126208578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-08 14:11","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"One second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126208578","media":"上海证券报","summary":"11月8日开市，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211以跌停开盘，随后出现快速拉升，大幅收窄跌幅，截至午市收盘，该合约跌0.53%。IM2211合约一秒跌停11月8日9点29分，中证1000期指主力合约","content":"<p><div>When the market opened on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, opened at the lower limit, and then rose rapidly, narrowing the decline significantly. As of the midday close, the contract fell 0.53%. The IM2211 contract fell to the limit in one second. At 9:29 on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, suddenly hit the limit and then quickly rose. As of the midday close, the decline of the IM2211 contract narrowed to 0.53%. It is worth noting that when the IM2211 contract abnormally hit the lower limit, the CSI 1000 index IM2212, IM2303 and IM2306...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne second down limit, the suspected \"Oolong Finger\" reappears! What happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-08 14:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>When the market opened on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, opened at the lower limit, and then rose rapidly, narrowing the decline significantly. As of the midday close, the contract fell 0.53%. The IM2211 contract fell to the limit in one second. At 9:29 on November 8, IM2211, the main contract of the CSI 1000 futures index, suddenly hit the limit and then quickly rose. As of the midday close, the decline of the IM2211 contract narrowed to 0.53%. It is worth noting that when the IM2211 contract abnormally hit the lower limit, the CSI 1000 index IM2212, IM2303 and IM2306...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159845":"中证1000","000001.SH":"上证指数","000852.SH":"中证1000"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xoxGWBObSrPGaPn0Z4AEJQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126208578","content_text":"11月8日开市，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211以跌停开盘，随后出现快速拉升，大幅收窄跌幅，截至午市收盘，该合约跌0.53%。IM2211合约一秒跌停11月8日9点29分，中证1000期指主力合约IM2211突然触及跌停板，随后迅速拉升。截至午市收盘，IM2211合约跌幅收窄至0.53%。值得注意的是，在IM2211合约异常触及跌停板时，中证1000指数IM2212、IM2303和IM2306合约均运行正常。对此，有期货人士向记者表示：“初步估计可能是某个机构程序走错了，开盘按跌停价卖了，但开盘集合竞价阶段不能撤单，导致最终成交出现‘乌龙指’。”中州期货首席宏观研究员李婷婷表示：“由于IM2211在跌停时成交价为多单平仓，因此推测可能是由于报单出现错误。但幸运的是，今日‘乌龙指’事件相关成交手数不足百手。由于中证1000本身上市时间短，流动性相对小，因此并未造成较大影响，其他股指期货均正常运行。”四大原因导致“乌龙指”事件“乌龙指”一旦出现，往往引起投资者的广泛关注。2013年8月16日，A股市场突发极为罕见的离奇暴涨，大批权重股被瞬间拉至涨停板，股指期货、蓝筹ETF同步暴涨。上证指数短时间内大幅拉升，一分钟内涨超5%，最高涨幅5.62%，盘中逼近2200点。此次事件系光大证券衍生品部门进行量化套利时下单失误所致。按照8月16日的收盘价，上述交易的当日盯市损失约为1.94亿元。通过分析2016年以来IH、IF、IC三大股指期货在所有合约上发生的较大的“乌龙指”事件，华泰期货认为“乌龙指”出现原因大致可以分为以下几类：一是开盘集合竞价阶段某方挂单数较大，挂单价格偏离较多，缺乏足够对手方；二是正常行情的盘中某方挂单数较大，挂单价格偏离较多，对手方订单簿缺乏深度；三是某一合约出现“乌龙指”，从而带动其他同时上市合约价格同样出现“乌龙指”；四是极端行情下，某方挂单价格偏离极大，错估市场承接力。近两年A股股指期货的流动性有十足进步，整体持仓量已跃居世界前列，但在IH、IF、IC三个股指期货上的“乌龙指”事件并未减少。“这背后折射出的是股指期货市场仍然有持续进入的‘新玩家’，这部分‘新玩家’的资金体量并不低，很容易对市场造成冲击性影响，需要各位投资者高度注意。”华泰期货相关人士提醒道。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159845":0.9,"000852.SH":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}