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2022-01-24
Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ
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Stockies
2022-01-24
Wiser to hold than risking a buy!
This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.
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2022-01-05
Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type.
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đ","listText":"Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ","text":"Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007755151","repostId":"2205024236","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007704500,"gmtCreate":1642996668533,"gmtModify":1676533763527,"author":{"id":"4103091478755300","authorId":"4103091478755300","name":"Stockies","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/6be8465bc0ebffa54c1d99c45b68bfb4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103091478755300","authorIdStr":"4103091478755300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","listText":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","text":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007704500","repostId":"1122641919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122641919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642994237,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122641919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122641919","media":"Barrons","summary":"Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists and market participants will be doing on Wednesday, when the panel may elucidate its policy plans but is unlikely to take any immediate action.</p><p>To be sure, stock and bond markets have started 2022 by adjusting to the reality of a less accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead. The benchmark 10-year Treasury noteâs yield is up 34 basis points since the turn of the year, at 1.836% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite has entered a so-called 10% correction from its peak last November. And the federal-funds futures market has fully priced in an initial 25-basis-point increase in the Fedâs key policy rate, from the current ground-hugging 0% to 0.25%, at the March 15-16 FOMC gathering, according to the CME FedWatch site. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p>But no rate increase is likely this week, despite a growing consensus (including from President Joe Biden) on the need for a less accommodative Fed policy, given the sharp rise of inflation. At his news conference on Wednesday, Biden expressed support for Fed Chairman Jerome Powellâs plan to ârecalibrateâ policy. âThe critical job of making sure that the elevated prices donât become entrenched rests with the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate: full employment and stable prices,â the president said.</p><p>Thatâs a sharp reversal of the pressure often exerted by past presidents for easier money. From Lyndon B. Johnson to Nixon and Donald Trump, presidents have variously tried to cajole or coerce Fed chairmen into lower interest rates or avoid raising them, while George H.W. Bush blamed a too-tight Fed for his electoral defeat. But now, inflationâs surge to 7% tops the list of concerns in consumer surveys, coinciding with the slide in Bidenâs poll ratings, so his endorsement of a less accommodative Fed policy appears to be a matter of political necessity.</p><p>So acute have inflation concerns become that some observers are urging more immediate and dramatic actions. That includes calls for a 50-basis-point jump in the fed-funds rate, as I wrote this past week on Barrons.com, or a complete halt in the Fedâs securities purchases, as I noted here a week ago, rather than the present path of winding down its buying by March.</p><p>But both would be out of character for the Powell Fed. âI canât imagine another big pivot,â says John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital. For most of 2021, the monetary authorities clung to the notion of âtransitoryâ inflation. A sharp, initial 50-basis-point hike would be an admission of how they misjudged the building price pressures, he says.</p><p>Neither does Ryding look for the Fed to emulate the Bank of Canada, which abruptly ended its securities purchases last year. âWhat I hope to get is clarityâ from the FOMC meeting in the coming week, he added in a telephone interview.</p><p>One possible surprise would be for the FOMC to further accelerate the tapering of the purchases, winding them up by mid-February, a month earlier than currently scheduled, write Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya, Robert Dent, and Kenny Lee in a client note. That would represent a marginal reduction of $20 billion in Treasury and $10 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities acquisitions, but would send a signal to the market about the Fedâs anti-inflation resolve.</p><p>In particular, they add, a quicker windup in the Fedâs bond buying might help avoid some awkward questions for Powell at his postmeeting news conference on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank continues to buy $40 billion of Treasuries and $20 billion a month in MBS, adding to its near-$9-trillion balance sheet, which means that it is actually easing, rather than tightening, policy, while talking of the need to curb inflation.</p><p>As for the Fed beginning to normalize its balance sheet, the Nomura economists think the announcement could come as early as the March or May FOMC meeting. Most Fed watchers expect a later start to the process of reducing the central bankâs securities holdings, after two or more rate hikes. And almost all think the Fed will allow maturing issues to run off at a predictable pace, rather than sell securities outright.</p><p>Some also suggest that the Fed could reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities more rapidly. The Fed has expressed a preference to returning to holding only Treasuries on its balance sheet, as was the case before the 2007-09 financial crisis, Ryding notes. And for months, many critics have argued that effectively subsidizing an already overheated housing market by buying MBS makes no sense.</p><p>But the relative economic and financial impact of changes in these two main monetary policy toolsâinterest rates and the central bankâs asset holdingsâis unknown, he says. The Fed traditionally has utilized the fed-funds rate as its main policy lever and resorted to a huge expansion in its balance sheet when its key policy rate fell to the zero lower bound. Unlike other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the Fed has avoided resorting to negative interest rates.</p><p>Economists Cynthia Wu of Notre Dame and Fan Dora Xia of the Bank for International Settlements have estimated that the equivalent impact of the Fedâs asset purchases in what they dub a âshadow fed-funds rate,â which is tracked by the Atlanta Fed. The Wu-Xia shadow funds rate was minus 1.15% as of Dec. 31, according to the Atlanta Fed.</p><p>Ryding says Wu estimates that a change in the Fedâs balance sheet equal to 10% of U.S. gross domestic productâabout $2 trillionâis roughly equivalent to a 100 basis point change in the fed-funds rate.</p><p>How central bank bond-buying affects the economy is still debated among economists. Most see asset purchases working through what they call the portfolio channel. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in a Washington Post op-ed article in November 2010, the central bank buys securities to ease financial conditions, including to raise stock prices, which in turn boosts consumersâ wealth and confidence, and spurs spending.</p><p>And as the intriguing accompanying charts from Deutsche Bankâs head of thematic research Jim Reid illustrate, the big global tech growth stocks have moved in lockstep with the assets of the major central banks. The FANG+ group used in the chart consists of Meta Platforms (the former Facebook, ticker: FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), plus Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR). The big five central banks are the Fed, the ECB, the Peopleâs Bank of China, the BoJ, and the Bank of England.</p><p>âCorrelation does not imply causation, but unless you are an incredibly strong advocate of a completely new earnings paradigm for the largest technology companies that coincidently have tracked unconventional monetary policy, then it is hard to argue against the notion that central bank policies have been a big contributor to an incredible run for the sector over the last six-to-seven years. Indeed, the only notable setback has been when global [quantitative tightening] arrived in 2018,â Reid observes in a client note.</p><p>The 13% decline in the FANG+ index from its November peak through Thursday is a bit steeper than the 11.5% drop in the popular Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund (QQQ) that tracks the biggest Nasdaq nonfinancial stocks. And thatâs before the Fed actually has begun to shrink its balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed has maintained its crisis policy of zero interest rates and active bond buying, initiated in March 2020 during the near-meltdown of markets resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus and its variants persist, but the economy has largely recovered, with the unemployment rate under 4% and the labor market beset by worker shortages. Inflation, meanwhile, has soared to 7% from a combination of supply constraints and pumped-up demand.</p><p>And nowhere is the impact of Fed policy more apparent than in asset prices, from the doubling of the S&P 500 since its March 2020 bottom, to home prices jumping about 20%. Investors will be listening carefully to what Powell & Co. say this coming week and beyond about normalizing those policies.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 11:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"éçŒæŻ",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122641919","content_text":"Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists and market participants will be doing on Wednesday, when the panel may elucidate its policy plans but is unlikely to take any immediate action.To be sure, stock and bond markets have started 2022 by adjusting to the reality of a less accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead. The benchmark 10-year Treasury noteâs yield is up 34 basis points since the turn of the year, at 1.836% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite has entered a so-called 10% correction from its peak last November. And the federal-funds futures market has fully priced in an initial 25-basis-point increase in the Fedâs key policy rate, from the current ground-hugging 0% to 0.25%, at the March 15-16 FOMC gathering, according to the CME FedWatch site. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)But no rate increase is likely this week, despite a growing consensus (including from President Joe Biden) on the need for a less accommodative Fed policy, given the sharp rise of inflation. At his news conference on Wednesday, Biden expressed support for Fed Chairman Jerome Powellâs plan to ârecalibrateâ policy. âThe critical job of making sure that the elevated prices donât become entrenched rests with the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate: full employment and stable prices,â the president said.Thatâs a sharp reversal of the pressure often exerted by past presidents for easier money. From Lyndon B. Johnson to Nixon and Donald Trump, presidents have variously tried to cajole or coerce Fed chairmen into lower interest rates or avoid raising them, while George H.W. Bush blamed a too-tight Fed for his electoral defeat. But now, inflationâs surge to 7% tops the list of concerns in consumer surveys, coinciding with the slide in Bidenâs poll ratings, so his endorsement of a less accommodative Fed policy appears to be a matter of political necessity.So acute have inflation concerns become that some observers are urging more immediate and dramatic actions. That includes calls for a 50-basis-point jump in the fed-funds rate, as I wrote this past week on Barrons.com, or a complete halt in the Fedâs securities purchases, as I noted here a week ago, rather than the present path of winding down its buying by March.But both would be out of character for the Powell Fed. âI canât imagine another big pivot,â says John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital. For most of 2021, the monetary authorities clung to the notion of âtransitoryâ inflation. A sharp, initial 50-basis-point hike would be an admission of how they misjudged the building price pressures, he says.Neither does Ryding look for the Fed to emulate the Bank of Canada, which abruptly ended its securities purchases last year. âWhat I hope to get is clarityâ from the FOMC meeting in the coming week, he added in a telephone interview.One possible surprise would be for the FOMC to further accelerate the tapering of the purchases, winding them up by mid-February, a month earlier than currently scheduled, write Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya, Robert Dent, and Kenny Lee in a client note. That would represent a marginal reduction of $20 billion in Treasury and $10 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities acquisitions, but would send a signal to the market about the Fedâs anti-inflation resolve.In particular, they add, a quicker windup in the Fedâs bond buying might help avoid some awkward questions for Powell at his postmeeting news conference on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank continues to buy $40 billion of Treasuries and $20 billion a month in MBS, adding to its near-$9-trillion balance sheet, which means that it is actually easing, rather than tightening, policy, while talking of the need to curb inflation.As for the Fed beginning to normalize its balance sheet, the Nomura economists think the announcement could come as early as the March or May FOMC meeting. Most Fed watchers expect a later start to the process of reducing the central bankâs securities holdings, after two or more rate hikes. And almost all think the Fed will allow maturing issues to run off at a predictable pace, rather than sell securities outright.Some also suggest that the Fed could reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities more rapidly. The Fed has expressed a preference to returning to holding only Treasuries on its balance sheet, as was the case before the 2007-09 financial crisis, Ryding notes. And for months, many critics have argued that effectively subsidizing an already overheated housing market by buying MBS makes no sense.But the relative economic and financial impact of changes in these two main monetary policy toolsâinterest rates and the central bankâs asset holdingsâis unknown, he says. The Fed traditionally has utilized the fed-funds rate as its main policy lever and resorted to a huge expansion in its balance sheet when its key policy rate fell to the zero lower bound. Unlike other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the Fed has avoided resorting to negative interest rates.Economists Cynthia Wu of Notre Dame and Fan Dora Xia of the Bank for International Settlements have estimated that the equivalent impact of the Fedâs asset purchases in what they dub a âshadow fed-funds rate,â which is tracked by the Atlanta Fed. The Wu-Xia shadow funds rate was minus 1.15% as of Dec. 31, according to the Atlanta Fed.Ryding says Wu estimates that a change in the Fedâs balance sheet equal to 10% of U.S. gross domestic productâabout $2 trillionâis roughly equivalent to a 100 basis point change in the fed-funds rate.How central bank bond-buying affects the economy is still debated among economists. Most see asset purchases working through what they call the portfolio channel. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in a Washington Post op-ed article in November 2010, the central bank buys securities to ease financial conditions, including to raise stock prices, which in turn boosts consumersâ wealth and confidence, and spurs spending.And as the intriguing accompanying charts from Deutsche Bankâs head of thematic research Jim Reid illustrate, the big global tech growth stocks have moved in lockstep with the assets of the major central banks. The FANG+ group used in the chart consists of Meta Platforms (the former Facebook, ticker: FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), plus Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR). The big five central banks are the Fed, the ECB, the Peopleâs Bank of China, the BoJ, and the Bank of England.âCorrelation does not imply causation, but unless you are an incredibly strong advocate of a completely new earnings paradigm for the largest technology companies that coincidently have tracked unconventional monetary policy, then it is hard to argue against the notion that central bank policies have been a big contributor to an incredible run for the sector over the last six-to-seven years. Indeed, the only notable setback has been when global [quantitative tightening] arrived in 2018,â Reid observes in a client note.The 13% decline in the FANG+ index from its November peak through Thursday is a bit steeper than the 11.5% drop in the popular Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund (QQQ) that tracks the biggest Nasdaq nonfinancial stocks. And thatâs before the Fed actually has begun to shrink its balance sheet.The Fed has maintained its crisis policy of zero interest rates and active bond buying, initiated in March 2020 during the near-meltdown of markets resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus and its variants persist, but the economy has largely recovered, with the unemployment rate under 4% and the labor market beset by worker shortages. Inflation, meanwhile, has soared to 7% from a combination of supply constraints and pumped-up demand.And nowhere is the impact of Fed policy more apparent than in asset prices, from the doubling of the S&P 500 since its March 2020 bottom, to home prices jumping about 20%. Investors will be listening carefully to what Powell & Co. say this coming week and beyond about normalizing those policies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008316340,"gmtCreate":1641358673640,"gmtModify":1676533605864,"author":{"id":"4103091478755300","authorId":"4103091478755300","name":"Stockies","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/6be8465bc0ebffa54c1d99c45b68bfb4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103091478755300","authorIdStr":"4103091478755300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type. ","listText":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type. ","text":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008316340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9007704500,"gmtCreate":1642996668533,"gmtModify":1676533763527,"author":{"id":"4103091478755300","authorId":"4103091478755300","name":"Stockies","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/6be8465bc0ebffa54c1d99c45b68bfb4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103091478755300","authorIdStr":"4103091478755300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","listText":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","text":"Wiser to hold than risking a buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007704500","repostId":"1122641919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122641919","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642994237,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122641919?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122641919","media":"Barrons","summary":"Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The o","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists and market participants will be doing on Wednesday, when the panel may elucidate its policy plans but is unlikely to take any immediate action.</p><p>To be sure, stock and bond markets have started 2022 by adjusting to the reality of a less accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead. The benchmark 10-year Treasury noteâs yield is up 34 basis points since the turn of the year, at 1.836% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite has entered a so-called 10% correction from its peak last November. And the federal-funds futures market has fully priced in an initial 25-basis-point increase in the Fedâs key policy rate, from the current ground-hugging 0% to 0.25%, at the March 15-16 FOMC gathering, according to the CME FedWatch site. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)</p><p>But no rate increase is likely this week, despite a growing consensus (including from President Joe Biden) on the need for a less accommodative Fed policy, given the sharp rise of inflation. At his news conference on Wednesday, Biden expressed support for Fed Chairman Jerome Powellâs plan to ârecalibrateâ policy. âThe critical job of making sure that the elevated prices donât become entrenched rests with the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate: full employment and stable prices,â the president said.</p><p>Thatâs a sharp reversal of the pressure often exerted by past presidents for easier money. From Lyndon B. Johnson to Nixon and Donald Trump, presidents have variously tried to cajole or coerce Fed chairmen into lower interest rates or avoid raising them, while George H.W. Bush blamed a too-tight Fed for his electoral defeat. But now, inflationâs surge to 7% tops the list of concerns in consumer surveys, coinciding with the slide in Bidenâs poll ratings, so his endorsement of a less accommodative Fed policy appears to be a matter of political necessity.</p><p>So acute have inflation concerns become that some observers are urging more immediate and dramatic actions. That includes calls for a 50-basis-point jump in the fed-funds rate, as I wrote this past week on Barrons.com, or a complete halt in the Fedâs securities purchases, as I noted here a week ago, rather than the present path of winding down its buying by March.</p><p>But both would be out of character for the Powell Fed. âI canât imagine another big pivot,â says John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital. For most of 2021, the monetary authorities clung to the notion of âtransitoryâ inflation. A sharp, initial 50-basis-point hike would be an admission of how they misjudged the building price pressures, he says.</p><p>Neither does Ryding look for the Fed to emulate the Bank of Canada, which abruptly ended its securities purchases last year. âWhat I hope to get is clarityâ from the FOMC meeting in the coming week, he added in a telephone interview.</p><p>One possible surprise would be for the FOMC to further accelerate the tapering of the purchases, winding them up by mid-February, a month earlier than currently scheduled, write Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya, Robert Dent, and Kenny Lee in a client note. That would represent a marginal reduction of $20 billion in Treasury and $10 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities acquisitions, but would send a signal to the market about the Fedâs anti-inflation resolve.</p><p>In particular, they add, a quicker windup in the Fedâs bond buying might help avoid some awkward questions for Powell at his postmeeting news conference on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank continues to buy $40 billion of Treasuries and $20 billion a month in MBS, adding to its near-$9-trillion balance sheet, which means that it is actually easing, rather than tightening, policy, while talking of the need to curb inflation.</p><p>As for the Fed beginning to normalize its balance sheet, the Nomura economists think the announcement could come as early as the March or May FOMC meeting. Most Fed watchers expect a later start to the process of reducing the central bankâs securities holdings, after two or more rate hikes. And almost all think the Fed will allow maturing issues to run off at a predictable pace, rather than sell securities outright.</p><p>Some also suggest that the Fed could reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities more rapidly. The Fed has expressed a preference to returning to holding only Treasuries on its balance sheet, as was the case before the 2007-09 financial crisis, Ryding notes. And for months, many critics have argued that effectively subsidizing an already overheated housing market by buying MBS makes no sense.</p><p>But the relative economic and financial impact of changes in these two main monetary policy toolsâinterest rates and the central bankâs asset holdingsâis unknown, he says. The Fed traditionally has utilized the fed-funds rate as its main policy lever and resorted to a huge expansion in its balance sheet when its key policy rate fell to the zero lower bound. Unlike other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the Fed has avoided resorting to negative interest rates.</p><p>Economists Cynthia Wu of Notre Dame and Fan Dora Xia of the Bank for International Settlements have estimated that the equivalent impact of the Fedâs asset purchases in what they dub a âshadow fed-funds rate,â which is tracked by the Atlanta Fed. The Wu-Xia shadow funds rate was minus 1.15% as of Dec. 31, according to the Atlanta Fed.</p><p>Ryding says Wu estimates that a change in the Fedâs balance sheet equal to 10% of U.S. gross domestic productâabout $2 trillionâis roughly equivalent to a 100 basis point change in the fed-funds rate.</p><p>How central bank bond-buying affects the economy is still debated among economists. Most see asset purchases working through what they call the portfolio channel. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in a Washington Post op-ed article in November 2010, the central bank buys securities to ease financial conditions, including to raise stock prices, which in turn boosts consumersâ wealth and confidence, and spurs spending.</p><p>And as the intriguing accompanying charts from Deutsche Bankâs head of thematic research Jim Reid illustrate, the big global tech growth stocks have moved in lockstep with the assets of the major central banks. The FANG+ group used in the chart consists of Meta Platforms (the former Facebook, ticker: FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), plus Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR). The big five central banks are the Fed, the ECB, the Peopleâs Bank of China, the BoJ, and the Bank of England.</p><p>âCorrelation does not imply causation, but unless you are an incredibly strong advocate of a completely new earnings paradigm for the largest technology companies that coincidently have tracked unconventional monetary policy, then it is hard to argue against the notion that central bank policies have been a big contributor to an incredible run for the sector over the last six-to-seven years. Indeed, the only notable setback has been when global [quantitative tightening] arrived in 2018,â Reid observes in a client note.</p><p>The 13% decline in the FANG+ index from its November peak through Thursday is a bit steeper than the 11.5% drop in the popular Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund (QQQ) that tracks the biggest Nasdaq nonfinancial stocks. And thatâs before the Fed actually has begun to shrink its balance sheet.</p><p>The Fed has maintained its crisis policy of zero interest rates and active bond buying, initiated in March 2020 during the near-meltdown of markets resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus and its variants persist, but the economy has largely recovered, with the unemployment rate under 4% and the labor market beset by worker shortages. Inflation, meanwhile, has soared to 7% from a combination of supply constraints and pumped-up demand.</p><p>And nowhere is the impact of Fed policy more apparent than in asset prices, from the doubling of the S&P 500 since its March 2020 bottom, to home prices jumping about 20%. Investors will be listening carefully to what Powell & Co. say this coming week and beyond about normalizing those policies.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Fed Meeting Is Crucial. Future Rate Hikes Are Just the Start.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 11:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"éçŒæŻ",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-fed-meeting-rate-hikes-51642784589?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122641919","content_text":"Watch what they say, not what they do, at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The obverse of the famous advice from Richard Nixonâs attorney general, John Mitchell, is what economists and market participants will be doing on Wednesday, when the panel may elucidate its policy plans but is unlikely to take any immediate action.To be sure, stock and bond markets have started 2022 by adjusting to the reality of a less accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead. The benchmark 10-year Treasury noteâs yield is up 34 basis points since the turn of the year, at 1.836% on Thursday, while the Nasdaq Composite has entered a so-called 10% correction from its peak last November. And the federal-funds futures market has fully priced in an initial 25-basis-point increase in the Fedâs key policy rate, from the current ground-hugging 0% to 0.25%, at the March 15-16 FOMC gathering, according to the CME FedWatch site. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)But no rate increase is likely this week, despite a growing consensus (including from President Joe Biden) on the need for a less accommodative Fed policy, given the sharp rise of inflation. At his news conference on Wednesday, Biden expressed support for Fed Chairman Jerome Powellâs plan to ârecalibrateâ policy. âThe critical job of making sure that the elevated prices donât become entrenched rests with the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate: full employment and stable prices,â the president said.Thatâs a sharp reversal of the pressure often exerted by past presidents for easier money. From Lyndon B. Johnson to Nixon and Donald Trump, presidents have variously tried to cajole or coerce Fed chairmen into lower interest rates or avoid raising them, while George H.W. Bush blamed a too-tight Fed for his electoral defeat. But now, inflationâs surge to 7% tops the list of concerns in consumer surveys, coinciding with the slide in Bidenâs poll ratings, so his endorsement of a less accommodative Fed policy appears to be a matter of political necessity.So acute have inflation concerns become that some observers are urging more immediate and dramatic actions. That includes calls for a 50-basis-point jump in the fed-funds rate, as I wrote this past week on Barrons.com, or a complete halt in the Fedâs securities purchases, as I noted here a week ago, rather than the present path of winding down its buying by March.But both would be out of character for the Powell Fed. âI canât imagine another big pivot,â says John Ryding, chief economic advisor at Brean Capital. For most of 2021, the monetary authorities clung to the notion of âtransitoryâ inflation. A sharp, initial 50-basis-point hike would be an admission of how they misjudged the building price pressures, he says.Neither does Ryding look for the Fed to emulate the Bank of Canada, which abruptly ended its securities purchases last year. âWhat I hope to get is clarityâ from the FOMC meeting in the coming week, he added in a telephone interview.One possible surprise would be for the FOMC to further accelerate the tapering of the purchases, winding them up by mid-February, a month earlier than currently scheduled, write Nomura economists Aichi Amemiya, Robert Dent, and Kenny Lee in a client note. That would represent a marginal reduction of $20 billion in Treasury and $10 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities acquisitions, but would send a signal to the market about the Fedâs anti-inflation resolve.In particular, they add, a quicker windup in the Fedâs bond buying might help avoid some awkward questions for Powell at his postmeeting news conference on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank continues to buy $40 billion of Treasuries and $20 billion a month in MBS, adding to its near-$9-trillion balance sheet, which means that it is actually easing, rather than tightening, policy, while talking of the need to curb inflation.As for the Fed beginning to normalize its balance sheet, the Nomura economists think the announcement could come as early as the March or May FOMC meeting. Most Fed watchers expect a later start to the process of reducing the central bankâs securities holdings, after two or more rate hikes. And almost all think the Fed will allow maturing issues to run off at a predictable pace, rather than sell securities outright.Some also suggest that the Fed could reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities more rapidly. The Fed has expressed a preference to returning to holding only Treasuries on its balance sheet, as was the case before the 2007-09 financial crisis, Ryding notes. And for months, many critics have argued that effectively subsidizing an already overheated housing market by buying MBS makes no sense.But the relative economic and financial impact of changes in these two main monetary policy toolsâinterest rates and the central bankâs asset holdingsâis unknown, he says. The Fed traditionally has utilized the fed-funds rate as its main policy lever and resorted to a huge expansion in its balance sheet when its key policy rate fell to the zero lower bound. Unlike other central banks, notably the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, the Fed has avoided resorting to negative interest rates.Economists Cynthia Wu of Notre Dame and Fan Dora Xia of the Bank for International Settlements have estimated that the equivalent impact of the Fedâs asset purchases in what they dub a âshadow fed-funds rate,â which is tracked by the Atlanta Fed. The Wu-Xia shadow funds rate was minus 1.15% as of Dec. 31, according to the Atlanta Fed.Ryding says Wu estimates that a change in the Fedâs balance sheet equal to 10% of U.S. gross domestic productâabout $2 trillionâis roughly equivalent to a 100 basis point change in the fed-funds rate.How central bank bond-buying affects the economy is still debated among economists. Most see asset purchases working through what they call the portfolio channel. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke explained in a Washington Post op-ed article in November 2010, the central bank buys securities to ease financial conditions, including to raise stock prices, which in turn boosts consumersâ wealth and confidence, and spurs spending.And as the intriguing accompanying charts from Deutsche Bankâs head of thematic research Jim Reid illustrate, the big global tech growth stocks have moved in lockstep with the assets of the major central banks. The FANG+ group used in the chart consists of Meta Platforms (the former Facebook, ticker: FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), plus Alibaba Group Holding (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR). The big five central banks are the Fed, the ECB, the Peopleâs Bank of China, the BoJ, and the Bank of England.âCorrelation does not imply causation, but unless you are an incredibly strong advocate of a completely new earnings paradigm for the largest technology companies that coincidently have tracked unconventional monetary policy, then it is hard to argue against the notion that central bank policies have been a big contributor to an incredible run for the sector over the last six-to-seven years. Indeed, the only notable setback has been when global [quantitative tightening] arrived in 2018,â Reid observes in a client note.The 13% decline in the FANG+ index from its November peak through Thursday is a bit steeper than the 11.5% drop in the popular Invesco QQQ exchange-traded fund (QQQ) that tracks the biggest Nasdaq nonfinancial stocks. And thatâs before the Fed actually has begun to shrink its balance sheet.The Fed has maintained its crisis policy of zero interest rates and active bond buying, initiated in March 2020 during the near-meltdown of markets resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus and its variants persist, but the economy has largely recovered, with the unemployment rate under 4% and the labor market beset by worker shortages. Inflation, meanwhile, has soared to 7% from a combination of supply constraints and pumped-up demand.And nowhere is the impact of Fed policy more apparent than in asset prices, from the doubling of the S&P 500 since its March 2020 bottom, to home prices jumping about 20%. Investors will be listening carefully to what Powell & Co. say this coming week and beyond about normalizing those policies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007755151,"gmtCreate":1643020463907,"gmtModify":1676533765450,"author":{"id":"4103091478755300","authorId":"4103091478755300","name":"Stockies","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/6be8465bc0ebffa54c1d99c45b68bfb4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103091478755300","authorIdStr":"4103091478755300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ","listText":"Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ","text":"Dont look dont see... just stay put! đ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007755151","repostId":"2205024236","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2205024236","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642979398,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2205024236?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-24 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205024236","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminatin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering whatâs amiss with Wall Street.</p><p>Increasingly, Google searches have been focused on the state of the market (and the economy), and for a good reason.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb8919922a7b0b50fe4cc9b6dcb60555\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images</span></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst weekly loss since October 2020 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst weekly percentage drops since March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data shows.</p><p>Searches on Google featured the following popular queries: âIs the market crashing?â And âwhy is the market crashing?â</p><p><b>What is a market crash?</b></p><p>To be sure, the market isnât crashing inasmuch as the term âcrashingâ is even a quantifiable market condition. Declines in stocks and other assets are sometimes described in hyperbolic terms that offer little real substance about the significance of the move.</p><p>There is no precise definition for a âcrashâ but it is usually described in terms of time, suddenness, and/or by severity.</p><p>Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, on Saturday told MarketWatch that he might characterize a crash as a decline in an asset of at least 50%, which could happen swiftly or over a year, but acknowledged that the term is sometimes used too loosely to describe run-of-the-mill downturns. He saw bitcoinâs move as a crash, for example.</p><p>He said the overall equity marketâs current slump didnât meet his crash definition, in any regard, but did say stocks were in a fragile state.</p><p>âItâs not crashing but it is very weak,â Hatfield said.</p><p><b>Whatâs happening? </b></p><p>Equity benchmarks are being substantially recalibrated from lofty heights as the economy heads into a new monetary-policy regime in the battle against the pandemic and surging inflation. On top of that, doubts about parts of the economy, and events outside of the country, such as China-U.S. relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East unrest, are also contributing to a bearish, or pessimistic tone, for investors.</p><p>The confluence of uncertainties has markets in or near a correction or headed for a bear market, which are terms that are used with more precision when talking about market declines.</p><p>The recent drop in stocks, of course, is nothing new but it may feel a bit unsettling for new investors, and, perhaps, even some veterans.</p><p>The Nasdaq Composite entered correction last Wednesday, ringing up a fall of at least 10% from its recent Nov. 19 peak, which meets the commonly used Wall Street definition for a correction. The Nasdaq Composite last entered correction March 8, 2021. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite stood over 14% below its November peak and was inching toward a so-called bear market, usually described by market technicians as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak.</p><p>Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow industrials stood 6.89% beneath its Jan. 4 all-time high, or 3.11 percentage points from a correction, as of Fridayâs close; while the S&P 500 was down 8.31% from its Jan. 3 record, putting it a mere 1.69 percentage points from entering a correction.</p><p>Worth noting also, the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index was 18.6% from its recent peak, putting it 1.4 percentage points from a bear market.</p><p>Underpinning the shift in bullish sentiment is a three-pronged approach by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy: tapering market-supportive asset purchases, with an eye toward likely concluding those purchases by March; raising benchmark interest rates, which currently stand at a range between 0% and 0.25%, at least three times this year, based on market-based projections; and shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has grown considerably as the central bank sought to serve as a backstop for markets during a swoon in March 2020 caused by the pandemic rocking the economy.</p><p>Taken together, the central-bankâs tactics to combat a burst of high inflation would remove hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity from markets that have been awash in funds from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from the government during the coronavirus crisis.</p><p>Uncertainty about economic growth this year and the prospect of higher-interest-rates are compelling investors to reprice technology and high growth stocks, whose valuations are especially tied to the present value of their cash flows, as well as undermining speculative assets, including crypto such as bitcoin and Ethereum.</p><p>âExcessive Fed liquidity had the effect of inflating many asset classes, including meme stocks, unprofitable tech stocks, SPACs[special-purpose acquisition companies], and cryptocurrency,â Hatfield said.</p><p>He said the rise in yields for the 10-year Treasury note, which has climbed more than 20 basis points in 2022, marking the biggest advance at the start of a new year since 2009, is more a symptom of the expectation of liquidity being removed.</p><p>âLiquidity is the key driver, not interest rates, as almost all publicly traded stocks have approximately the same duration/interest rate sensitivity so tech stocks are not disproportionately impacted by rate rises, despite market commentary to the contrary,â Hatfield said.</p><p>In any case, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to spend its Jan. 25-26 meeting laying the groundwork for a further shift in policy, which the market is attempting to price into valuations.</p><p><b>How often do markets slump?</b></p><p>Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up. The stock market has been resilient, even during the pandemic.</p><p>Still, declines of 5% or more are a frequent occurrence on Wall Street.</p><p>Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he viewed the current slump for markets as âa very typical tumble.â</p><p>âIs it a crash? No. But it is an average decline, believe it or not, it is,â he told MarketWatch over the weekend.</p><p>âI would say that the market is doing what it does. A bull market takes the escalator up but bear markets take the elevator down, and as a result people get very scared when the market declines,â he said.</p><p>Stovall prefers to categorize market declines by overall magnitude and doesnât offer specific criteria for a âcrash.â</p><p>â[Declines of] zero to 5%, I call noise but the closer we get to 5% the louder the noise,â he said. He said a 5%-10% decline qualifies as a pullback, a drop of at least 10% is a correction for him and a fall of 20% or greater is a bear market.</p><p>Salil Mehta, a statistician and a former director of analytics for the U.S. Treasury Departmentâs TARP program following the 2008 financial crisis, told MarketWatch that given the S&P 500âs drop of over 8%, the probability of a 10%-14% drop from here is 31%, while there is a one-out-of-five chance of a total drop of 30% or more from current levels.</p><p>The statistician said there is âa similar probability that the current drawdown eventually turns into something twice as large. And a similar probability the current drawdown instead is over.â</p><p>Stovall said it is important to know that markets can swing back in a hurry after downturns. He said it can take the S&P 500 on average of 135 days to get to a correction from peak to trough and only 116 days on average to get back to break even based on data going back to World War II.</p><p>Stovall says that this downturn may also be exacerbated by seasonal factors. The researcher said that markets tend to do poorly in the second year of a presidentâs tenure. âWe call it the sophomore slump,â he said.</p><p>âVolatility has been 40% higher in the sophomore year, compared with the other three years of the presidential term,â he said.</p><p>Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022.</p><p>There have been 20 other occasions when the S&P 500 index posted a calendar year gain of 20% or more and experienced a decline of at least 5% in the subsequent year. When such a decline, after a big gain in the previous year, has happened in the first half of the new year, and it has on 12 occasions, the market has gotten back to break even 100% of the times.</p><p>Stovall notes that thatâs not statistically significant but still notable.</p><p><b>What should investors do? </b></p><p>The best strategy during downturns may be no strategy at all, but it all depends on your risk tolerance and your time horizon. âDoing nothing is often the best strategy,â Hatfield said.</p><p>He also pointed to defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and energy, which often carry healthy dividends and higher-yielding investments like preferred stock as a good option for investors looking to hedge in the face of possibly more volatility.</p><p>Financial experts normally caution against doing anything rash, but they also say some Americans have more reason to be concerned than others, depending on their age and investment profile. Someone who is older may want to discuss the situation with their financial adviser and a younger investor may be able to hold tight if they are comfortable with their current investment setup, strategists say.</p><p>Pullbacks can be opportunities for asset accumulation if an investor is prudent and judicious in selecting their investments. However, downturns often result in hive thinking, with market participants selling in droves.</p><p>Market declines âshake investor confidence and tends to beget more selling,â Hatfield said.</p><p>Ultimately, though investors need to be cautious and smart about how they think about the market, even in the face of so-called crashes.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the market crashing? No. Here's what's happening to stocks, bonds as the Fed aims to end the days of easy money, analysts say\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 07:09 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering whatâs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"玹çœæŻæä»","BK4504":"æĄ„æ°Žæä»","GOOG":"è°·æ","XLP":"æ¶èŽčćææ°ETF-SPDRäž»èŠæ¶èŽčć","BK4548":"ć·ŽçŸćæ·çŠæä»","BK4514":"æ玹ćŒæ","XLU":"ć Źć ±äșäžææ°ETF-SPDR","BK4554":"ć ćźćźćARæŠćż”","BK4553":"ćé©Źæé è”æŹæä»","BK4534":"çćŁ«äżĄèŽ·æä»","BK4507":"æ”ćȘäœæŠćż”","BK4533":"AQRè”æŹçźĄç(ć šç珏äș性ćŻčćČćșé)","BK4566":"è”æŹéćą","BK4525":"èżçšćć ŹæŠćż”","BK4559":"ć·ŽèČçčæä»","BK4077":"äșćšćȘäœäžæćĄ",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4527":"ææç§æèĄ","XLE":"SPDRèœæșææ°ETF","BK4550":"çșąæè”æŹæä»",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"éçŒæŻ","SPY":"æ æź500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-market-crashing-no-heres-whats-happening-to-stocks-bonds-as-the-fed-aims-to-end-the-days-of-easy-money-analysts-say-11642892638?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2205024236","content_text":"As the stock market has convulsed lower and yields for bonds have surged in recent weeks, culminating in a so-called correction for the Nasdaq Composite Index, average Americans are wondering whatâs amiss with Wall Street.Increasingly, Google searches have been focused on the state of the market (and the economy), and for a good reason.Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty ImagesThe Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst weekly loss since October 2020 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite logged their worst weekly percentage drops since March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data shows.Searches on Google featured the following popular queries: âIs the market crashing?â And âwhy is the market crashing?âWhat is a market crash?To be sure, the market isnât crashing inasmuch as the term âcrashingâ is even a quantifiable market condition. Declines in stocks and other assets are sometimes described in hyperbolic terms that offer little real substance about the significance of the move.There is no precise definition for a âcrashâ but it is usually described in terms of time, suddenness, and/or by severity.Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Management, on Saturday told MarketWatch that he might characterize a crash as a decline in an asset of at least 50%, which could happen swiftly or over a year, but acknowledged that the term is sometimes used too loosely to describe run-of-the-mill downturns. He saw bitcoinâs move as a crash, for example.He said the overall equity marketâs current slump didnât meet his crash definition, in any regard, but did say stocks were in a fragile state.âItâs not crashing but it is very weak,â Hatfield said.Whatâs happening? Equity benchmarks are being substantially recalibrated from lofty heights as the economy heads into a new monetary-policy regime in the battle against the pandemic and surging inflation. On top of that, doubts about parts of the economy, and events outside of the country, such as China-U.S. relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle East unrest, are also contributing to a bearish, or pessimistic tone, for investors.The confluence of uncertainties has markets in or near a correction or headed for a bear market, which are terms that are used with more precision when talking about market declines.The recent drop in stocks, of course, is nothing new but it may feel a bit unsettling for new investors, and, perhaps, even some veterans.The Nasdaq Composite entered correction last Wednesday, ringing up a fall of at least 10% from its recent Nov. 19 peak, which meets the commonly used Wall Street definition for a correction. The Nasdaq Composite last entered correction March 8, 2021. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite stood over 14% below its November peak and was inching toward a so-called bear market, usually described by market technicians as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak.Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow industrials stood 6.89% beneath its Jan. 4 all-time high, or 3.11 percentage points from a correction, as of Fridayâs close; while the S&P 500 was down 8.31% from its Jan. 3 record, putting it a mere 1.69 percentage points from entering a correction.Worth noting also, the small-capitalization Russell 2000 index was 18.6% from its recent peak, putting it 1.4 percentage points from a bear market.Underpinning the shift in bullish sentiment is a three-pronged approach by the Federal Reserve toward tighter monetary policy: tapering market-supportive asset purchases, with an eye toward likely concluding those purchases by March; raising benchmark interest rates, which currently stand at a range between 0% and 0.25%, at least three times this year, based on market-based projections; and shrinking its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, which has grown considerably as the central bank sought to serve as a backstop for markets during a swoon in March 2020 caused by the pandemic rocking the economy.Taken together, the central-bankâs tactics to combat a burst of high inflation would remove hundreds of billions of dollars of liquidity from markets that have been awash in funds from the Fed and fiscal stimulus from the government during the coronavirus crisis.Uncertainty about economic growth this year and the prospect of higher-interest-rates are compelling investors to reprice technology and high growth stocks, whose valuations are especially tied to the present value of their cash flows, as well as undermining speculative assets, including crypto such as bitcoin and Ethereum.âExcessive Fed liquidity had the effect of inflating many asset classes, including meme stocks, unprofitable tech stocks, SPACs[special-purpose acquisition companies], and cryptocurrency,â Hatfield said.He said the rise in yields for the 10-year Treasury note, which has climbed more than 20 basis points in 2022, marking the biggest advance at the start of a new year since 2009, is more a symptom of the expectation of liquidity being removed.âLiquidity is the key driver, not interest rates, as almost all publicly traded stocks have approximately the same duration/interest rate sensitivity so tech stocks are not disproportionately impacted by rate rises, despite market commentary to the contrary,â Hatfield said.In any case, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is likely to spend its Jan. 25-26 meeting laying the groundwork for a further shift in policy, which the market is attempting to price into valuations.How often do markets slump?Investors ought to be forgiven for thinking that markets only go up. The stock market has been resilient, even during the pandemic.Still, declines of 5% or more are a frequent occurrence on Wall Street.Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said he viewed the current slump for markets as âa very typical tumble.ââIs it a crash? No. But it is an average decline, believe it or not, it is,â he told MarketWatch over the weekend.âI would say that the market is doing what it does. A bull market takes the escalator up but bear markets take the elevator down, and as a result people get very scared when the market declines,â he said.Stovall prefers to categorize market declines by overall magnitude and doesnât offer specific criteria for a âcrash.ââ[Declines of] zero to 5%, I call noise but the closer we get to 5% the louder the noise,â he said. He said a 5%-10% decline qualifies as a pullback, a drop of at least 10% is a correction for him and a fall of 20% or greater is a bear market.Salil Mehta, a statistician and a former director of analytics for the U.S. Treasury Departmentâs TARP program following the 2008 financial crisis, told MarketWatch that given the S&P 500âs drop of over 8%, the probability of a 10%-14% drop from here is 31%, while there is a one-out-of-five chance of a total drop of 30% or more from current levels.The statistician said there is âa similar probability that the current drawdown eventually turns into something twice as large. And a similar probability the current drawdown instead is over.âStovall said it is important to know that markets can swing back in a hurry after downturns. He said it can take the S&P 500 on average of 135 days to get to a correction from peak to trough and only 116 days on average to get back to break even based on data going back to World War II.Stovall says that this downturn may also be exacerbated by seasonal factors. The researcher said that markets tend to do poorly in the second year of a presidentâs tenure. âWe call it the sophomore slump,â he said.âVolatility has been 40% higher in the sophomore year, compared with the other three years of the presidential term,â he said.Stovall said one other factor to consider is that markets tend to do a lot of digesting after a year when returns have been 20% or greater. The S&P 500 registered a 26.89% gain in 2021 and is down 7.7% so far in 2022.There have been 20 other occasions when the S&P 500 index posted a calendar year gain of 20% or more and experienced a decline of at least 5% in the subsequent year. When such a decline, after a big gain in the previous year, has happened in the first half of the new year, and it has on 12 occasions, the market has gotten back to break even 100% of the times.Stovall notes that thatâs not statistically significant but still notable.What should investors do? The best strategy during downturns may be no strategy at all, but it all depends on your risk tolerance and your time horizon. âDoing nothing is often the best strategy,â Hatfield said.He also pointed to defensive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and energy, which often carry healthy dividends and higher-yielding investments like preferred stock as a good option for investors looking to hedge in the face of possibly more volatility.Financial experts normally caution against doing anything rash, but they also say some Americans have more reason to be concerned than others, depending on their age and investment profile. Someone who is older may want to discuss the situation with their financial adviser and a younger investor may be able to hold tight if they are comfortable with their current investment setup, strategists say.Pullbacks can be opportunities for asset accumulation if an investor is prudent and judicious in selecting their investments. However, downturns often result in hive thinking, with market participants selling in droves.Market declines âshake investor confidence and tends to beget more selling,â Hatfield said.Ultimately, though investors need to be cautious and smart about how they think about the market, even in the face of so-called crashes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008316340,"gmtCreate":1641358673640,"gmtModify":1676533605864,"author":{"id":"4103091478755300","authorId":"4103091478755300","name":"Stockies","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/6be8465bc0ebffa54c1d99c45b68bfb4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4103091478755300","authorIdStr":"4103091478755300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type. ","listText":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type. ","text":"Any advise for dividend stocks? Long term investment type.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008316340","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
